Most accurate presidential election predictor
Opinion Polling and Election Predictions - JSTOR
I focus on the 2012 US presidential election, in which Barack Obama de-feated Mitt Romney. I begin by describing the predictive success achieved by aggregators of opinion polls (sec. 2), before examining how this success was achieved (secs. 3 and 4). In contrast, theoretical approaches to election prediction fared much worse (sec. 5).
[PDF File]Predicting Votes from Census Data
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election predictions that were more accurate than traditional polling methods [4]. Their work di ers from mine in that my goal is improve upon one part of election predicting, assessing likelihood of voting, rather than to generate a prediction of the election itself. Bollen et al. 2011 used twitter to model national mood in the U.S. [5]. They ...
[PDF File]Predicting U.S. president election result based on Google Insights
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predict the US presidential election results by states. This study could be useful because it provides a reliable tool to make prediction on the vote result, besides survey the voters. It can potentially facilitate the electoral team and the media to understand di erent concerns from di erent states, and the potential votes result.
[PDF File]US presidential election forecasting: An introduction
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casting of US presidential elections had been laid. The enterprise continued to grow in the 1990s. By the 1992 election, six econometric models produced pre-election forecasts, and Lewis-Beck and Rice (1992) published Forecasting Elections as an over-view of the emerging field. Another four forecasting equations (including models by Thomas ...
[PDF File]*AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 Presidential ...
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Earlier in the 2020 election cycle, AtlasIntel provided the most accurate forecasts of the Democratic Primary races by average RMSE, including the single best polls of New Hampshire, California, and Florida. This unparalleled performance is a testimony of the quality of our methodology and the
[PDF File]Presidential Election Cycles as a Predictor of the Stock Markets
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Presidential Election Cycles as a Predictor of the Stock Markets The stock market goes up and down in cycles. Over the ... Don’t laugh; it’s been accurate 82 percent of the time since the first Super Bowl in 1967. I’ll bet many quantitative staffs would be duly impressed with an
[PDF File]Health as an independent predictor of the 2017 French presidential ...
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Health as an independent predictor of the 2017 French presidential voting behaviour: a cross-sectional analysis Jean-David Zeitoun1,2,3*, Matthieu Faron4,5, Sophie de Vaugrigneuse6 and Jérémie H. Lefèvre7,8 Abstract Background: It has been suggested that poor health has influenced vote for Brexit and the US presidential election.
[PDF File]Markets vs. Polls as Predictors - Columbia University
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and election-eve trial-heat polls as predictors of presidential elections for 16 data points—all presidential elections from 1936 through 2008 except for 1964, 1968, and 1972 for which no market data is available. . This is more than the usual number of cases that presidential election
[PDF File]Presidential Election Data: Predominant Mapping - Esri
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, type Presidential Election 2016 . b. For . Tags, remove the existing tag and add the tags Predominant Mappingand Z-score. c. For . Summary, type Presidential election results by county for 2016. 5. Click . Save Map. A copy of the map is saved. Step 2: Style the map by predominant category . The map includes data about the election results ...
More Than Just Yard Decorations: Campaign Signs as a Predictor of ...
The presidential election of 2012 was no different, with political advertisements beginning in some states in 2011. One of the most common types of political advertisements is yard signs advocating for a particular candidate. These signs typically indicate who the household will vote for in the upcoming election. Signs
[PDF File]Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections
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accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections available to date. Established methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections As long as there have been elections, people have tried to predict their results. Nowadays, the most common methods for election forecasting are trial-heat polls, prediction markets,
Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and ... - JSTOR
poll-based forecasts were, on average, slightly more accurate than Intrade's raw prediction market-based prices.6 But when prediction markets are properly debiased, they are more accurate and contain more information than debiased polls; this advantage is most significant for forecasts made early in the cycle
[PDF File]Polls and Elections: Accuracy and Bias in the 2020 U.S. General ...
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The final set of national presidential polls is presented in Table 1, with each poll’s score on all three metrics. The polls are arranged from most accurate to least accurate based on the A measure. The two most accurate of the 14 polls—The Hill/HarrisX and Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP—had Joe Biden ahead by 4 percentage points, and Biden
[PDF File]Health as an independent predictor of the 2017 French presidential ...
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Health as an independent predictor of the 2017 French presidential voting behaviour: a cross-sectional analysis Jean-David Zeitoun1,2,3*, Matthieu Faron4,5, Sophie de Vaugrigneuse6 and Jérémie H. Lefèvre7,8 Abstract Background: It has been suggested that poor health has influenced vote for Brexit and the US presidential election.
Presidential Approval Ratings on Midterm Elections
The theory explains the Presidential party as having the advantage in the on- year House election due to the Presidential coattails but suffers a decline in the following off-year election. Midterm vote by Presidential year vote by Erikson (1988), p. 1021 In the above diagram a and d, the presidential penalty model penalizes the Presidential party.
[PDF File]FORECAST ERROR: 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTORS
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PART 1: THE ELECTION Early in 2020 the 45th President of the United States Donald J. Trump looked forward to the coming election. A billionaire property developer who had acceded to the presidency after a surprise win in 2016, he anticipated winning his second election as most sitting first-term Presidents do. Then the pandemic happened.
[PDF File]High-School and College Sophomores Provide the Most Accurate ...
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High-School and College Sophomores Provide the Most Accurate Predictions of U.S. Presidential Election Results in Nationwide Contest Winners of Prediction 2016 used sophisticated statistical methods to predict state-by-state and overall percentage outcomes with greater accuracy than more than 450 students across the U.S.
[PDF File]Predicting Elections from Biographic Information about Candidates
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most accurate results, followed by the index method, and step-wise regression. Use of the index method in election forecasting For forecasting U.S. presidential elections, data for the majority of regression models is limited to about 25 elections. In fact, most models use no more than 15 observations and include from two to
[PDF File]Assessing strategic voting in the 2008 US presidential primaries: the ...
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single best predictor of vote choice in the general election, is of little use for understanding voting behavior in the within-party contests. Perhaps more importantly, voters are more likely to weigh factors such as electability and viability in their vote decision as they look ahead to the general election contest (Bartels 1988).
[PDF File]Using Twitter to Predict the United States Presidential Election
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The 2016 presidential election brought social media under the spotlight. Especially when one of the candidates at the time, Donald Trump, is famous for his fondness for intense Twitter usage. ... as a predictor of the poll and did not provide the statewide prediction. 2.1.4 Hybrid methods/Machine learning algorithm. Tsakalidis et al. [16 ...
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