Judgment under uncertainty heuristics

    • [DOC File]Philosophy and Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

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      This is a PhD-level course on decision theory and will focus mainly on axiomatic theories of individual decision making under risk and uncertainty. First the course will briefly explore utility theory under certainty and the notion of preferences and their representation. ... P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.) (1982), Judgment under uncertainty ...


    • [DOCX File]David W. Chambers

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      Wyer (1976) found many instances in which the judgment of P(AnB) was greater than the judgment of either P(A) or P(B). Tversky and Kahneman (1983) reviewed this literature, presented additional examples, and used the term “conjunction fallacy” to describe violations of Expressions 5 and 6 that occur in within-subjects designs.


    • [DOC File]Aeronautical Decision Making

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      Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Kersten, G.E. and Noronha, S.J. (1996). Comments to ‘Solving MCDM problems: Process concepts’ by Henig and Buchanan. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 5(1): 12-15. Larichev, O. (1992). Cognitive validity in design of decision-aiding ...


    • [DOC File]Theories of Bias in Probability Judgment

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      Title: Aeronautical Decision Making Author: Janeen Kochan Last modified by: Preferred Customer Created Date: 5/4/2003 4:55:00 PM Company: Adrion Advisors, Inc.


    • [DOC File]Megan Toews - University of British Columbia

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      Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” in Daniel Hahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 1982. 4b Motivations and …


    • [DOCX File]Drew University | Drew University

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      In Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A., Eds. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 1982, pp. 249-267]. Where baseline and priors are given by the research rather than generated by the respondents, actual calculations will be masked.


    • [DOC File]The heuristics literature offers a novel way of viewing ...

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      Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, "Judgments of and by Representativeness", in Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Tversky, editors (1985), pp. 84-98. 15.) Kahneman D, Tversky A. Subjective probability : a judgement of representativeness.


    • [DOC File]University of British Columbia

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      Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. articles tackling the issue of how we make judgments on the likelihood of uncertain events....this can be numerical odds or subjective probabilities.


    • [DOC File]P.S. 741, Winter, 1997

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      However, judgment heuristics distinguishes between intuitive "irrational" processes and the relatively slower “rational” processes (in the two-system model), but incorporates both processes in explaining how decisions are made. Indeed, the studies have shown that many of …


    • Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

      Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. 1. Representativeness - Relating two items or events: how similar is A to B? Some biases we often fall victim to when using the representativeness heuristic: a) Insensitivity to prior probabilities of outcomes


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