ࡱ>  U@ \bjbj "T::::\ij|BNiPiPiPiPiPiPi$9kRmti!!!tiiFFF!NiF!NiFF6Fngh p<:`=h *i$i0ih qnC2qn@hqnh@f$ F8   titimvqmF vqCorporatisation of exchanges and central counterparties: the dark side will come Ruben Lee Managing Director, Oxford Finance Group It's a brave new world. To be precise, a brave new corporatised world. The transformation of exchanges, and to a lesser extent central counterparties (CCPs), into for-profit firms has become both commonplace, and commonly accepted as desirable. As with all new visions, however, there are unexpected problems waiting to be discovered. To date, the demutualisation and corporatisation of exchanges and CCPs has been seen almost universally as beneficial. For their previous owners, primarily the banking and brokerage communities, the corporatisation of exchanges and CCPs has been seen as a way of capitalising their long written-down investments in outdated infrastructure institutions. This is particularly valuable in today's era of shrinking revenues. To the exchanges, corporatisation has allowed them to become more nimble and efficient than their cooperative and non-profit predecessors, and to have access to the capital markets to raise the necessary finances -- supposedly. For their shareholders, the promise, as always, is of dividends and capital gains. However, two aspects of the dark side of the corporate dream will soon come to light for exchanges and CCPs: monopoly and bankruptcy. A CCP typically has elements of a natural monopoly because it benefits from a positive network externality which arises from two sources. The first is because the benefits of netting -- one of the key functions provided by a CCP -- are dependent on the number of traders using the CCP. The more traders that use a CCP, the more netting is likely to reduce the number and volume of trades that need to be settled. Once a CCP has been established in a market to deliver netting, all market participants are therefore likely to choose to use this CCP to net their trades over any potential competitor. In most circumstances, if participants already net most of their transactions through a particular CCP, the benefits of sending additional transactions to the same CCP in terms of the reductions in settlement instructions and volumes are likely to be greater than those achievable by netting the transactions through any alternative CCP. A second reason why the operation of a CCP often gives rise to a network externality concerns the collateral that market participants are typically required to put up to support their trading activity via a CCP. The more assets that are cleared through a single CCP, and the more this CCP is able to offset margin positions in one type of asset against positions in other types of assets, the lower the amount of collateral that is likely to be required. This is because the risk associated with the combined portfolio is likely to be less than the sum of the risks associated with each of the individual positions, given any correlations in the returns of the relevant assets. Once a CCP starts to dominate clearing in one or more assets, it is difficult for new competitors to offer market participants similar reductions in collateral for this range of assets, while still employing appropriate risk-management procedures. The network externality associated with netting and the calculation of collateral is a strong reason why the activities of a CCP may be provided most efficiently by a single supplier. The fact that there is only one CCP in a particular market should not, therefore, be viewed a priori as a sign that the CCP is acting anti-competitively. However, whenever a monopolistic organisation is in operation, the potential for it to exploit its position to bring about inefficient outcomes is always present. The functions of trading and clearing in securities markets have historically been viewed as different levels in the vertical structure of the markets. An important and controversial question that has recently arisen is what is whether exchanges, namely the providers of trading systems, should also own CCPs, thereby creating what have been called 'vertical silos'. Various benefits have been put forward in support of vertical integration between an exchange and a CCP. First, vertical integration may let a trading system platform be directly linked with a CCP, so that trades can be electronically matched and routed to the CCP's clearing system. Such straight-through-processing reduces operational risks by decreasing the manual processing of trades. Second, if an exchange owns a CCP, the exchange may benefit by obtaining a source of revenues from the CCP that is not directly correlated with those arising from other sources available to the exchange. The combined revenue streams may be less volatile than the revenue from the exchange's other businesses. Third, there may be economies of scope between the different activities undertaken by the exchange and the CCP. The extent to which these arguments are true can only be determined in practice. However, if exchanges do operate both trading systems and CCPs, it will be unsurprising if some of their behaviour is anti-competitive. By owning a CCP, an exchange has the opportunity to exploit a monopoly to its own advantage in a manner that inappropriately restricts competition by other exchanges and trading systems. The demutualisation of exchanges means that they are more likely than before to seek to take advantage of any monopolistic power that owning a CCP might give them, compared to the previous situation where both exchanges and CCPs were operated for the most part as non-profit mutual organisations. There are many ways in which a securities exchange may inappropriately seek to exploit the monopoly power of a CCP, if it owns one. It may seek to cross-subsidise its trading system by using the profits it obtains from its CCP. The possibility of doing this may be increased by the difficulty of distinguishing the costs of clearing from the costs of trading in a vertical integrated organisation. The ability of trading systems without access to such cross-subsidies to compete with an exchange supported by revenues from a CCP may be limited. An exchange may also restrict access to its CCP to other competing trading systems. In order for netting to be viable it is necessary that positions can be off-set against each other in a clearing-house, or be fungible with each other. Without such fungibility, no netting is possible. The extent to which market participants will be able to net any positions they take on different trading systems is therefore dependent on whether these trading systems have access to the relevant CCP. If, for example, one exchange owns the CCP on which most clearing is done, and restricts access to this CCP by another competing exchange, market participants will not be able to net any trades they execute on the second exchange through the first exchange's CCP. The ability of the second exchange to compete with the first exchange will therefore be reduced. A parallel for exchanges that has been widely drawn is that they are like national airlines -- every country believes it needs one. This correspondence has been given an added piquancy following both the rapid decline of Swissair, and the money the Swiss government decided in the end to put up effectively to restore its name. This event highlights another downside of the brave new world of commercial exchanges -- namely the possibility that they may go bankrupt. Many exchanges have closed in the past, almost always due to a lack of liquidity on their trading platforms. However, in today's corporatised environment, exchanges have a much greater incentive than before to diversify their revenue sources and maximise their profits. If an exchange delivers many other services in addition to simply providing a trading platform, it is possible that losses from these other services may force the exchange to close, even with a liquid market operating. It would be a brave government that did not bail out such an exchange. The likelihood of government money being extended is significantly greater if the exchange in question owns a CCP. The operation of a CCP goes to the heart of a country's payment system, and any government will therefore be extremely loath to allow such an institution to go under. The notion that it might be possible for an exchange to be allowed to go under, while still ensuring the financial sustainability of a CCP that it owns, assumes that sufficiently tight financial firewalls can be created around the CCP for it to survive, even if its owner fails. Given the general difficulty of supervising financial conglomerates, this is a notion that few governments will be willing to put to the test. This will lead to a moral hazard problem. The management of for-profit exchanges are paid, and will seek, to take risks in order to maximise the exchanges' profitability. However, they will know that any serious mistakes they make are likely to be supported in the end via government subsidy. Exchange managements are therefore likely to take excessive risks. It is true that the traditional ownership models for exchanges and CCPs, namely those of the cooperative and the non-profit organisation, had significant problems. To overlook the possibility that today's demutualised and corporatised world could also lead to significant problems for exchanges and CCPs is, however, only to see the bright side of the dream. The darker realities of the corporate world cannot be ignored. Ruben Lee is the Founder and Managing Director of the Oxford Finance Group. The views presented in this article of those of the author, and not necessarily those of the Oxford Finance Group or any of its clients. Clearing and settlement Chris Prior-Willeard PricewaterhouseCoopers This article takes an objective appraisal of the current developments in both the clearing of securities as well as settlement, with particular emphasis on Europe. These are compared to similar developments in derivatives and commodities. Finally, some of the more far-sighted developments in settlement are explored in terms of their potential benefit and impact on the existing market landscape. The outcome of clearing and settling securities transactions is that the seller gets paid and the buyer gets title to his stock. The key question to be addressed is: Why is this process so difficult? The European context Recently, Europe has emerged as the place where major issues in the securities market are to be decided. The issue of consolidation of stock exchanges has been fought and, so far, lost in Europe. The focus of market participants was then brought to bear on settlement, with a call for the amalgamation and consolidation of the central securities depositories (CSDs) -- the organisations responsible for the settlement of securities transactions -- from the large and expanding population of stock exchanges and 'execution platforms'. This also failed. Attention then was brought to bear on the clearing houses, with representatives of market users agreeing, in public, that the right European structure for clearing was a single central counterparty serving the transaction stream between Europe's execution venues and the various settlement systems. This was the 'hour glass' structure, where competition between exchanges for execution and competition between settlement systems would be separated by a single European central counterparty, from which it was expected that industry efficiency and cost reduction would result. This appeared to trigger in a number of market servicing organisations' immediate recognition of the 'value generating' potential of clearing houses, which led to a rapid increase in new central counterparty clearing houses in the European markets (XClear and European Central Counterparty being just two). The accepted emphasis in European securities markets continues to be on consolidation. The prevailing view is that market infrastructure in Europe is too fragmented and therefore expensive to operate as a whole. The immediate solution is to have less of it -- fewer stock exchanges, one central counterparty and fewer settlement systems. Yet, with the exception of the Euronext organisation, little serious consolidation has resulted. Alliances are being discussed and some valuable efforts to find common standards and practices between settlement systems have been made by ECSDA (European Central Securities Depositories Association), although neither of these initiatives actually removes surplus capacity from the marketplace. Identifying the problems The failure rate of securities transactions in Europe, arguably the most sophisticated trading market, is reported by a leading settlement agent to be 15%. This poor performance has given rise to a number of significant studies into the issues raised which have in turn catalysed a number of separate initiatives. In no particular order these include: Lamfalussy -- Wise Men Report Giovannini -- Report into EU Clearing and Settlement G-30 -- new recommendations in Global Clearing and Settlement European Securities Forum -- user lobby group European Central Securities Depositories Association Global Straight-through Processing Association -- GSTPA Central Counterparties Association These initiatives have a variety of remits and backing ranging from governments and central banks through to industry/user groups. Their agenda and objectives also cover a wide range of targets, although they share one principal goal in attempting to bring to pass greater efficiency in post transaction processing -- clearing and settlement. At a distance they would appear to have achieved remarkably little, given the industry and the increasing political pressure that is being brought to bear. The proof of this lies in the continuing fragmentation and variety of processes, independent of both governance and management of the organisations involved. Indeed, the current G-30 initiative has established a remarkable consensus on the prime causes of the industrial problem from a wide ranging series of interviews with investment banks, investors, custodians, clearing houses, settlement systems, exchanges and brokers. One of the principle causes is claimed to be failure of 'interoperability' which describes the ability of different market services, such as clearing houses and settlement systems, to work in harmony. The main contributors to the lack of interoperability are the absence of agreed terminology and market practices and the many different ways in which information is presented and recorded from top to bottom in the transaction chain. This, surprisingly, is true within certain national markets as much as in cross-border equities markets. The most significant contributor to this is the lack of standardisation in legal, regulatory and taxation rules and practices between one national market and another. One example of this problem is the wide variety of legal approaches to the concept of 'property'. So if something goes wrong during the process of clearing and settlement, ownership of the asset being transferred may be hard to define. And of course if something has gone wrong, it is highly likely that each counterparty has a vested interest in the outcome and goodwill cannot necessarily be relied upon to resolve the situation. The transaction chain Title to traded assets is a pretty basic concept in the process of transaction performance. Frequently, it is not until the laws of property in question have been tested in court that the precise position in current and past transactions can be relied upon. There is a predictable and sequential flow of events and processes that must take place after trading to achieve satisfactory transaction performance. Some are by-passed as the specific market participants are prepared to accept additional risks which other markets are not. But in general the flow can be represented as follows: Surprisingly, though, 'clearing and settlement' are often used as a single term, rather in the way that sales and marketing are frequently used in blended form -- the two terms being brought together to disguise the fact that the individual meanings of the functions are not fully understood or appreciated. In terms of the development of market infrastructure it is increasingly relevant to consider them as separate and distinct processes, since an important body of opinion in the market is keen to see clearing and settlement delivered on a separate basis. In Europe the issue was handed over by the industry to politicians, when the EU competition commissioner, Mario Monti, was asked to review the competitive aspects of clearing, settlement and execution combined in what are termed 'silos'. Silos describe the grouping of a stock exchange, clearing house and settlement system in one organisation. The alternative to silos are 'service providers', where each process is delivered by separate and distinct organisations, the implication being that this enables more transparent and competitive pricing. In individual geographic markets, it is sometimes hard to understand the argument between silos and service providers where there are effective monopolies, and in Europe cross- border competition in the execution, clearing and settlement of domestically-issued equity and fixed income has yet to joined on any scale. The nature of the traded asset has a large impact on the functional market infrastructure required to handle transactions efficiently. Similarly, the method by which transactions are executed points to the sophistication of the clearing and settlement processes required. Equities are traded in greater volume than most corporate bonds. For settlement, the transfer of title to shares is made clear through transparent processes delivered by sophisticated organisations, the central securities depositories (CSDs), and increasingly supported by regulatory oversight. Significantly, corporate bonds may be settled through both CSDs and the ICSDs -- Euroclear and Clearstream. These two organisations have presided over the smooth operation of the Eurobond market for some thirty years. The Eurobond market has, during this time, offered both the primary and secondary markets global, multi-currency and multinational settlement, with cross-border transactions being the rule rather than the exception. Whilst domestic market service organisations have been wrestling with cross-border issues, the Eurobond market has smoothly encompassed global bonds which add domestic linkages to CSDs. This adds domestic populations of investors to the Euromarket contingent and is increasingly applied to equities. The reason why, in aiming to provide the best service to their domestic equity markets, CSDs did not surrender their domestic and cross-border process flows to the ICSDs (as Sicovam appears to have done with Euroclear Paris) raises a number of sensitive and vital issues. Costs -- domestic organisations contend that the ICSD tariffs are significantly more expensive than their own. Control -- the ICSDs have traditionally been owned and controlled by the large multinational broker-dealers, rather than market participants more domestically aligned. This is where the real barriers to consolidation lie. Although high profile cross-border transactions are dominated by a comparatively small number of large broker-dealers, domestic transactions involve a much more diverse population of intermediaries, many of whom are both powerful in their domestic context and are less interested in the needs of cross-border transactions. Consolidation of market infrastructure, therefore, carries different levels of appeal to domestic players whose local power-base may be disproportionately large in comparison to their market share. And within their own domestic markets, many of the European providers compare very favourably with the US on a cost per basis. However, the Centre for European Policy Studies recently published its own view, following the Lamfalussy report. This outlined that the best way of providing market infrastructure most appropriate to the needs of the European marketplaces lay in allowing the forces of competition to prevail. Also, that allowing the various providers to compete for the transaction flows of national and cross-border markets would result in efficient and cost-competitive services. Is this the climate likely to allow the development of genuine user-driven solutions to the problems? Providers with large monopolistic market positions are not likely to cede their markets without a fight. Domestic markets will take some convincing that their legal, taxing and regulatory frameworks should be disbanded. So under the competition option it seems unlikely that significant changes will happen quickly. However, solutions to the problems of administering cross-border transaction flows have been around for many, many years. These include depository receipts, nominee accounts, global custody and various trust-based initiatives. As illustrated below, these instruments vary from the well known, such as American and global depository receipts -- ADRs and GDRs -- to more arcane structures. They all, in some form, rely upon the continuing inability of different geographical markets to achieve common standards and processes and therefore seek to provide a fungible bridge between them. Either they adopt a dominant set of standards, as in the case of ADRs adopting US standards and market processes and CDIs using UK market practices, or they seek to find an acceptable compromise as 'global shares' aim to do. Commodities Transactions in commodities involve transfers not only of ownership, but also, frequently, commitments in terms of the movement and physical delivery of the agreed consignment. In addition, successful settlement of a commodity transaction requires the buyer to formally accept the quality and physical terms of the delivery for the transaction. Unlike securities, where transfer of property involves, at worst, the receipt of a bearer certificate, and can be quickly achieved soon after transaction, settlement of commodity transactions can take place a significant time after execution. For example in the electricity market, deliveries against a forward electricity contract are delivered over a year after the transaction was executed. As the experience of Enron has shown, within that period a number of major market problems can arise to render successful delivery uncertain. Yet the electricity markets remain outside the auspices of clearing houses and settlement systems, although scheduling agents perform valuable roles in terms of identifying the route for the transfer of property between seller and buyer. Warrants of entitlement Physical delivery under a commodity futures contract is not, as is often amusingly claimed, a large wagon arriving at the buyer's front door with several tonnes of grain or metal on board, but rather takes place through the allocation by the clearing house of a bearer document of title -- a warrant of entitlement. This document gives the holder legal claim to a quantity of the physical commodity held by a warehouse within the network of the futures exchange's delivery locations. Invariably, the quality of the commodity will be of an acceptable commercial standard, which could be sold efficiently and immediately in the open market place. All the document holder must do is arrange for collection and pay for storage since the time of transfer of title. Typically, as these warrants of entitlement are allocated to open buyers in the market, they are immediately handed on, via a sale, to other open buyers, or are actually used as strategic supplies for commercial operations. The point is that these warrants act on the exchange as 'securitised' quantities of the physical commodity, much in the way a banknote was, in the past, securitised gold. The advantages of a warrant are that is it easier to handle for the purposes of satisfying transactions, whilst the variable factors which govern its value (quality, condition, etc) are standardised. The warrants are supported by formal dispute resolution machinery and, ultimately, effective redress against the deliverer and/or store-keeper. So providing the means for warrants to be transferred between counterparties in exchange for good payment removes the majority of the traditional process and quality risks of commodity transactions on futures exchanges. If the warrants were then to be made available in electronic form, via computer records, the performance of commodity transactions would move to new levels of security and efficiency. Contracts Within the context of clearing and settlement, contracts include derivatives -- futures and options, but also swaps and contracts for differences (CFDs). Transactions in contracts are now mainly confined to agreements between counterparties to exchange cash-flows relating to defined and stipulated events. No transfer of title of the underlying asset takes place. Settlement of contracts therefore amounts to accurate (or at least acceptable) valuation techniques of the counterparties' contracts, an assessment of the balance of payments and a single cash transfer. Registration Share registration is a securities service that is often overlooked. In a registered as opposed to bearer market, providing shares are efficiently deregistered from a seller's name and registered into the buyer's name, and the various entitlements from share ownership flow to investors, little thought is given to the function of the registrar. However, as pressure builds to smooth the movement of securities across markets and jurisdictions, so more focus may come to bear on how registers of members can help cross-border trading. A company is required by law to hold a list of its registered shareholders. Commonly, this is delegated either to external specialist companies, such as registrars or stock transfer agents, or to the market infrastructure itself. The UK currently occupies a middle ground with a well-developed industry of share registrars but where the legal record of holders of dematerialised shares (about 85%) is in the computers of Crest, the UK CSD. Transactions in registered shares are literally the transfer of title to those shares from a seller to a buyer. This can be achieved by altering the holding of the seller on the register and increasing the holding of the buyer. Obviously, these can simply be two adjustments to a computer record, irrespective of the impact of those transactions in the marketplace. This computer record then drives all dividend entitlements, eligible voting and participation in new issues and other corporate actions. The computer record can record foreign names and addresses, apply conditions on incoming transfers (such as limits on foreign shareholders) and can interface with similar computer records held in other countries and jurisdictions. In fact, arrangements can be made so that a particular transfer of title can automatically remove stock from a register in one country and automatically increase the holdings in another. So, in this case, where is the difficulty in moving stock around the world, from one market to another? Depositories Whether they act as the settlement system of one country, or the custodian for a settlement system in another, depositories basically maintain records of holders in securities. These records, again, drive the various investor services and entitlements. Often the only difference between these records and those of the registrar is the fact that the registrar has responsibility to the issuing company, whilst the depository owes its duty to investors. Custody Custodians hold records of the securities held by their investor customers to ensure that they are correctly represented to the issuing company in terms of their entitlements. Custodian and depository records are often reconciled to the records of the registrar. Record-keeping Within most modern markets a network of records exists which, if taken together, could track electronically every holding of investors, including those in certificate form (through the register), every securities transaction and every movement in title across every market. Even those markets that remain in bearer format can either trace ownership through the participant records of closed systems, such as Euroclear and Clearstream, where the global notes themselves act as registers (albeit at high-level) as they record daily the respective collective holding of the participants of each settlement system. Outside these organisations, the trend has been for the Euromarket retail investors to hold their investments through custodian banks, and therefore, on record. The future It should not be beyond the imagination of the markets collectively to spot the opportunity in linking these record-keeping organisations with the objective of developing improved transfer capabilities from one market to another and across borders. This would be accompanied by increased levels of service efficiency experienced by investors, for example in receiving entitlements, and increased efficiency of capital raisings through rights and secondary offerings. This potential was demonstrated most impressively by the British Telecom rights issue in 2001 which was the first electronic rights issue and, at GBP5.9bn, one of the biggest ever. The linking of registers in this way is fundamental to the recent Global Registered Shares (GRS) product that has been developed principally for linking European markets with American markets. At the time of writing, GRS programmes have been established for the US listings of Deutsche Bank, UBS, Daimler Chrysler and Celanese. As GRSs compete with ADRs, their elder brethren, they are faced with the challenge of gaining acceptance in the broker marketplace, and also overcoming the critical reaction that new products often meet in securities markets. The howls of fury over the competitive potential of GRSs will be nothing compared to the likely reception from the securities markets over a new potential development that is already on the drawing board. Termed Digital Bearer Securities, the concept draws heavily from the technology behind 'digital cash', where payments can be beamed from one 'electronic wallet' to another, without any intermediation. The recipient of digital cash receives spendable value from the sender and relies on the technology to avoid fraud, theft or erroneous payment. Digital Bearer Securities use the same approach to the transfer of title -- beaming from one 'electronic portfolio' to another. In fact delivery verses payment would be achieved through simultaneous exchange of 'beamed' title to the securities in question, for the agreed consideration in electronic cash. Once the two 'beamed events' have taken place no further communication is necessary between buyer and seller. No confirmation is necessary because, as with more traditional bearer securities such as Eurobonds, title to the securities passes at exchange. The buyer is henceforth responsible for care and security of his electronic securities, stored neatly in his electronic portfolio, and for future allocation of 'shapes' to investor customers. The transaction remains invisible to the issuing company until either they need to undertake a roll-call of investors, or there is a dividend distribution, AGM or other routine event in the corporate calendar. At this point, investors can either identify themselves to the 'registrar or paying agent' via the web, or directly to the company. There is much thought yet to be given to bring this concept to full industrial strength, which is being done. But the idea has merit in offering a vastly different approach to the business of trading and settling securities. Whether the development of post-transaction administration can be left to the market to prosecute sufficiently quickly and even-handedly, or whether external influences from regulators, legislators and politicians are required, is not strictly for debate. What is for debate is in which direction this development should go and how far and fast.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Prior1.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Prior2.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Prior3.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Prior4.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Preparing for STP/T+1 - the means NOT the end Manisha Kulkarni, Industry Consultant, Jordan & Jordan and Thomas J Jordan, Executive Director, Financial Information Forum While not the panacea to all that ails the financial services industry, the move to straight through processing (STP) offers opportunities to support current business requirements, provide a competitive advantage and pave the way for the future. STP is not an end in itself; it is the means to increase profitability and efficiency through improved client services, reduced operational cost/risk, and uninterrupted business continuity. Figure 1: STP role in increasing profitability and shareholder value  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/kulkarni1.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Working with our clients, Jordan & Jordan has defined these capabilities as follows: Expanding client services Buy and sell side firms alike seek to innovate both products and services in order to meet and exceed client expectations. With the focus on costs and the expectation that firms will leverage new technologies, firms need the internal infrastructure and processes as well as the external connectivity to meet demand for new products, electronic trading with intelligent order routing, integrated service offerings, and real-time services. Furthermore, a straight through processing model positions firms to adapt to fundamental changes in the business, including globalisation, new market participants and new distribution channels. Reducing operational cost/risk The increase in cross-border trading and overall trade volume strains brokerage and buy-side operations that are dependent on manual intervention and batch processes. Moving towards T+1 and shortened settlement cycles in other markets reduces exposure to settlement risk. Given the increased volatility of the markets, the cost of fails goes beyond reputational risk, potentially resulting in significant market risk to the liable party. Reducing errors due to multiple data entry and shifting to exception-only processing enables firms to push trades from execution to settlement in a timely manner. As depositories continue to develop their clearing and settlement services, firms have an opportunity to take advantage of the liquidity management, risk mitigation and the efficiencies of netting frequently offered by the central counter party services. Ensuring business continuity The events of 9/11 have served as a reminder to financial services firms and renewed focus on the need for executable business recovery plans at the firm, industry and community level. Firms are looking to STP to reduce data loss in the event of a disruption by electronically capturing information real-time and storing it at multiple sites. Additionally, the adoption of real-time matching and reporting distributes trade information across firms and provides a clear understanding of trade status for all participants. Getting to STP As firms and industry associations have been gearing their organisations to tackle STP, it is clear that every firm has different needs based on their current environment and particular STP goals. However, any successful STP project should consider that simply 'connecting the dots' of the trade cycle with electronic rather than manual processes does not get you to the STP promised land. Outside of simply establishing connectivity, firms are evaluating the need for real-time processing, streamlined workflow, standardised architecture and behavioural/organisational changes. In order to address these aspects of T+1, Jordan & Jordan recommends determining the focus of STP efforts through analysis, implementing STP enhancements by activity and across functions, and testing. While incorporating many of the same elements of any technology project, the move to straight through processing expands the scope of the effort to include vendors, counterparties and industry utilities. Addressing this broader community, the Financial Information Forum brings service bureaus, clearing firms, order routing and market data vendors together to review STP/T+1 issues and assist in preparation. In order to assist buy and sell-side firms on STP/T+1 activities, Jordan & Jordan works with clients to plan, implement and test the enhancements required in order to achieve T+1 goals. Planning Perform gap analysis As a precursor to developing a business case for STP/T+1 activities, firms must assess where the opportunities for STP improvement exist within the trade process. Many firms have existing documentation describing information flows, systems, and processes that may need to be updated in light of increased use of alternative trading systems (ATSs), cross-border order routing and other internal and industry initiatives. Upon detailing the current environment, this documentation should be analysed in the light of STP/T+1 goals. Various industry white papers discuss best practices against which a firm can assess their readiness. Jordan & Jordan was responsible for drafting the STP/T+1 Codes of Practice for Fixed income instruments trading in the United States. We found that while not every T+1 issue has been resolved, there is enough information and regulatory guidance to begin the process of STP/T+1 readiness planning and project initiation. While many STP initiatives will help firms reach T+1 settlement, firms should be aware that T+1 may impose additional requirements on planned STP projects. Develop business case Back office operations typically have not been the subject of boardroom-level discussions. However in the current market climate and era of industry consolidation, the ability to streamline operations, reduce risk and integrate with other firms is a strategic competitive advantage. In order to gain funding and focus STP efforts, Jordan & Jordan recommends introducing executive level staff to the regulatory and competitive motivations for addressing STP in the organisation in order to increase awareness that beyond T+1 efforts, regulatory reporting, transparency disclosures and customer expectations are driving STP efforts. In addition to obtaining corporate buy-in and sponsorship, development of a more detailed business case will support a sound strategy and foundation for project planning and management of resources required to direct the STP/T+1 effort. While STP projects can be seen as a series of discrete projects, the need for firm level coordination is justified in light of the cross-organisational dependencies and requirements for compliance at the firm level. Implementation -- improve efficiency by activity Coming out of the planning process, firms should have an understanding of which STP initiatives will provide the most benefit. While STP attempts to look at the complete order lifecycle, it is not practical to structure projects at this conceptual level. Instead, we have found that focused projects aimed at improving an activity are more successful so long as interaction with other parts of the trade process is considered. Within each phase of the trade process there are a number of expected changes and opportunities as highlighted below. Pre-trade One of the key benefits expected from STP is the ability to shorten settlement cycles. As the US prepares for T+1, for example, it is important not only to automate activities, but also to consider when activities take place in order to catch errors early in the trade process. While most of the STP and T+1 efforts focus on post-execution processing, firms may want to consider internal procedures to populate trade information as early in the process as possible. Certain reference data, such as International Security Identification Numbers (ISIN) and CUSIPS (for US domestic securities) should be accessible by the front office upon making the trade or even at the point of order entry. The front office may require access to BIC codes for indicating counterparties, settlement instructions, and other detail supplied by the back office or outside source in order to expedite the trade for matching or continuous net settlement (CNS). Additionally, buy-side firms are considering the need for pre-trade compliance in order to submit allocations on a timely process. The implications of performing pre-trade compliance go beyond implementing system changes to modifying behaviour among front-office staff (portfolio manager and buy-side trader). Trade execution Applying STP technology and processes in trade execution allows firms to offer a more sophisticated level of service in the form of intelligent order routing while complying with newly imposed disclosure rules by the SEC in the United States. Intelligent order routing Trading venues are proliferating. Order handling rules and reporting requirements are increasingly stringent. Fragmentation is occurring in sources and systems. Trading venues are providing unprecedented quantities of market data and execution tools on the same platform. Firms must respond to best execution and STP settlement obligations in this increasingly complicated trading and information landscape. In the case of equities, finding the best price may no longer be a matter of looking at the national best bid offer (NBBO), since decimalisation has reduced the usefulness of the NBBO. The true depth of market becomes more and more elusive as important information on ECN and ATS activity is often missing from the NBBO. In the options market, no NBBO yet exists. Regardless of the security type or market, firms want to improve their order routing behaviours, processes and systems to include parameter-driven, rules-based, direct-to-market automatic order routing. These intelligent order routing systems should take into account where an order routes based not only on price, size, and trading venue but also on pre-established customer preferences, security type, time to execute, high touch versus low touch order handling, and numerous other prioritisation schemes. These systems must also include the market data and other information required to get the order routed, executed and settled. Increasingly, firms are looking to outside vendors to provide sophisticated and intelligent order routing tools. Measure and report execution quality Led by the SEC in the US, even the FSA (UK's recently consolidated regulatory authority) is examining trading costs and opportunities to increase transparency. The EU Commission is addressing significant attention to this matter. The SEC remains steadfast in its position that investors are assured access to the markets and receive 'best execution' on their trades. As non-traditional trading becomes more active, broker--dealer firms, exchanges and service providers need to accommodate interfaces to these markets in a consistent manner that is in the best interests of their customers. SEC Rule 11Ac1-5, which began a phased implementation schedule on May 1, 2001, requires market centres (including market makers, alternative trading systems, and exchanges) to make electronic public disclosures on firm's order execution and execution quality for Nasdaq NMS and listed equity securities. SEC Rule 11Ac1-6 applies to broker--dealers routing orders on behalf of customers. These firms must prepare quarterly reports identifying which venues orders were routed to, relationships with markets such as payment for order flow, and, when requested by a customer, where that customer's individual order was routed. How these reports will be used by financial institutions to make order routing decisions is, as yet, unclear. However, the availability of this information is sure to increase awareness of the impact of order routing on execution quality. Firms will need to electronically capture and analyse this information. As rules evolve and the products designed to satisfy requirements are refined, a trend may develop to obtain and process the required information in a more real-time way. Even if the reports must only be filed on a monthly or quarterly basis now, the mechanism to capture the relevant information is likely to figure in STP and may find a home on front office systems, alongside order routing, order management, and real-time market data. Middle office Much of the focus of STP initiatives is on the middle office. The services of Omgeo and GSTP, while originally designed for cross-border trade matching, are also key elements of the US domestic T+1 initiative. As part of the T+1 effort in the US, the Securities Industry Association (SIA) is resolving interoperability issues and the viability of new processing models incorporating matching utilities referred to as VMUs (virtual matching utilities). Jordan & Jordan assists The Bond Market Association (TBMA) in addressing differences associated with fixed income instruments. Regardless of the outcome of these discussions, Figure 2 clearly illustrates that the post-execution processing performed in the middle office could benefit from automation and streamlined processing where possible. Figure 2: Trade agreement from T+3 to STP/T+1  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/kulkarni2.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Electronic match at the block level Upon completion of a trade, broker--dealers need to communicate the net price (typically referred to as net monies) including commission, market fees, and taxes of the block-level order. The requirements for this calculation are instrument- and market-dependent. Oftentimes, this procedure is performed over the phone and, in the case of equities, at the end of the day. Given the shortened T+1 settlement timeframe, there is an urgency to identify errors at the block level without waiting for the investment manager to submit allocations. By matching the broker--dealer's notice of execution (NOE) with the investment manager's block order notification (BON), errors associated with security or net amount can be resolved. For equity products, the requirement for matching at the block level can also be satisfied by the investment manager submitting allocations that can be rolled up to compare to the BON. Because of the lack of centralised exchanges in the US fixed income markets, NOE to BON matching has been recommended. The most common method identified for achieving block level matching has been through participation in a VMU (virtual matching utility), e.g. Omgeo or GSTP. However, alternative trading systems are considering offering this service as well. Firms must evaluate which matching services are best suited for their needs taking account of product and client requirements. Considering that many of these services are still at some stage of development, firms also have an opportunity to participate in the product development process by providing input to users and industry associations. We have found that providers of matching services have been responsive to addressing issues raised by the clients we represent. Electronic allocation level match The allocation level match consists of investment managers sending allocation details electronically via the VMU, with the VMU matching the allocated net monies to the block level NOE. Today, allocation details are conveyed manually, either by fax or phone, between broker--dealer sales staff and investment management (IM) trading operations staff. Not only will the inclusion of the matching utility automate activities that are currently manual, it will also standardise the agreement of trade details, which has traditionally been at the discretion of counterparties involved in each trade. In addition to these changes, it has also been suggested that allocations are sent by the IM within one hour of trade execution. Industry issues relating to streamlining the allocation process must still take into account suitability and 'know your customer' rules, which broker--dealers must adhere to and which are becoming stricter as a result of recent world events. Firms must not only work with their counterparties to make sure they provide allocations in a timely manner but also examine internal processes to see that due diligence issues are resolved quickly. The implications for new account processing are discussed in the next section. In addition to due diligence issues, system integration between the VMU and in-house systems is required to make sure the trade process continues in an automated fashion. Append settlement instructions Outdated, inaccurate, or missing delivery instructions are consistently cited as the source of many failed trades. In resolving the settlement instruction issue, there have been competing models introduced as to how settlement instructions should be sourced, either centrally or within each firm. Despite differences in methodology, there appears to be common agreement that custodians should take responsibility for providing this information. Firms must work with counterparties to identify the most appropriate methodology. Many in the industry feel that investment managers and custodians will want the option of either methodology, especially in cross-border scenarios. Back office New account opening process Typically, the back office is responsible for completing the new account opening process. Even if the counterparties are the same, new sub-account set-up may be required. In today's environment, new account opening is typically a manual process that is initiated after the investment manager sends in allocations at the end of trade date. In a T+1 environment, there will not be time to set-up accounts after the trade is made. Firms may need to modify existing new account opening processes, considering not only internal procedures and systems but also their counterparties' use of automated account and settlement instruction databases. Maintain current security master Trading a security for the first time often requires a new record to be established in a firm's security master file. In today's environment, there is plenty of time to receive the information needed to populate the record, usually from a vendor in an overnight batch process. Now required on trade date, it may become necessary at the point of trade-entry to supply the relevant details of the security being traded and the counterparty information including settlement instructions. Market data vendors may be among those in a position to supply access to standard reference data, security identifiers, cross-reference services, and other types of descriptive information. This information may be accessible in real-time via queries to a vendor's database or to a central database maintained in-house. Apply corporate actions Corporate action information typically includes payment of interest and dividends, reorganisation data, name changes, splits, tender offers, calls, etc. This information remains critical to a firm's ability to service assets held in inventory and customer accounts in a timely manner. T+1 effectively narrows the window to correctly apply corporate actions before settlement, thereby increasing the importance of accuracy and completeness in the provision of corporate action information by a market data vendor. Corporate action information in the US is typically reported and collected by the vendors with at least a week's advance notice, due to industry regulations. 'Last minute' announcements are a significantly larger problem with international companies. Firms are examining their corporate action workflow to determine efficient ways to reconcile corporate action information across data sources as well as to identify tools to automate the process. Interface with new CCP (central counter party) systems Clearing and settlement utilities in the US and Europe are taking significant measures to innovate the liquidity management process for their member firms. Custodians and sell-side firms have new opportunities to manage their settlement obligations. As a result of these new utility features, member firms may be able to retire existing systems with similar functionality. Potential functionality such as DTCC's proposed Inventory Management System, intended to centralise the order and timing of deliveries, need to be examined in the context of firms' internal processes and liquidity management requirements. As CREST moves to real-time delivery versus payment they too will offer liquidity management tools that must be addressed by member firms. Implementation -- connectivity and interoperability In addition to streamlining and automating the discrete activities required to settle an order, connectivity between activities and systems is implied by straight through processing. In order to minimise the cost of linking systems and promote flexibility within a firm's system architecture, standardisation at the message and content level as well as a robust architecture are highly encouraged. Adopt messaging standards Industry-wide support is growing for the use of open standards in interface design, data definition, business rules, and message protocols. In a few short years, much progress has been made in this area with the increased use of FIX for Indications of Interest and trade orders for equities, and the expansion of SWIFT and ISO 15022 to accommodate a more complete array of message types for communication of settlement and delivery instructions with custodians and depositories. Numerous industry groups are working to develop content definitions and data formats for business-related information and data elements. Many view the implementation of industry standards as a necessity to achieve STP. Highlighting the need for standardisation is the call for interoperability among the services that will be offered to process institutional transactions. One of the cornerstones of the T+1 initiative is the establishment of a virtual matching utility for the efficient processing of institutional trades. While Omgeo and GSTP AG are expected to offer competitive services, they must be fully capable of interfacing with one another and any other new products introduced for this purpose. There are also efforts to coordinate with FIX and SWIFT to ensure interoperability with related functional processes. Interestingly, FIX version 4.2 includes some support for market data, and future versions may include support for corporate actions. Our clients take an active role in working to develop standards that meet business and technical requirements for efficient processing. Working as part of the joint TBMA/FIX Fixed Income Working Group, Jordan & Jordan has worked closely with the business practitioners to define the requirements for fixed income trading protocols for all major instruments. Enhance infrastructure/address capacity Efficiencies in securities processing under STP and T+1 and the accommodation of higher volumes could add to the capacity problems at the front end. Expanded quantities and sources of real-time data will be required to support order handling and execution as automation in the industry evolves. As our projections at the Financial Information Forum show, capacity requirements for market data will be pushed even further by real-time limit order books from multiple market centres, and front office applications for order routing and management will consume additional capacity as they process more and more information to satisfy customer needs and reporting obligations. Adopt standard symbology for STP data management The ability to exchange information across platforms in a way that provides consistency and supports harmonisation is required to achieve STP. Counterparty risk management, compliance, and surveillance systems, updated and accessible in real-time, will become a more integral part of the front office. All efforts to improve consistency will result in more effective use of data from the front to the back office. STP demands for consistency will spur efforts on both in-house and external data reconciliation and will incorporate the use of emerging standards as well as continued support of some legacy and proprietary formats. Data is purchased from multiple data vendors, derived using alternative calculation methods, and defined in different ways. Vendors' proprietary data and symbology formats, as well as their value added offerings, allow competitive differentiation and accommodate the specific needs of clients; however, integrating multiple feeds can be a challenge for firms. It is not likely that vendors will abandon proprietary formats or symbology but, driven by industry needs to streamline processes and promote higher data integrity, vendors appear to be open to the adoption of alternative standards. Testing Testing for STP readiness will include standard testing procedures as new systems and processes are implemented. For T+1 to be accomplished in the US, testing at the industry level may also be required to ensure that counterparties and utilities are able to achieve a complete settlement cycle on time. Coordinated and synchronised industry testing has the potential to identify potential breakdowns that only surface when all participants and activities are being performed. Innovating STP STP is not one project but a series of projects that bring firms closer to efficiency and automation. Prioritising objectives and re-evaluating needs in the light of the current environment are consistently required to refine and improve your firm's STP capabilities. Manisha Kulkarni can be contacted at  HYPERLINK "mailto:kulkarni@jandj.com" kulkarni@jandj.com. Thomas Jordan can be contacted at  HYPERLINK "mailto:tjjordan@fif.com" tjjordan@fif.com. Market infrastructure: Depository infrastructure -- the risks Derek Duggan Managing Director, Information Services, Thomas Murray Ltd Investors are exposed to risk from local market infrastructure. It is not sensible for them to assume that just because their investments are being settled and held within a developed market infrastructure, which appears to include a sound and robust depository and clearing environment, they are safe. Recent cases have seen a depository mislaying some bearer documents in its care and others having to admit very publicly to significantly overstating the value of the securities held in custody. However, this level of visibility is very much the exception to the rule and it is clear that in many markets much remains unreported. Investors are exposed to the vagaries of the local market infrastructure and the risk intermediation mechanisms the local market has in place to support their structures. Doesn't my custodian bank take this risk? During contract negotiations investors can agree and specify what level of risk a global custodian is prepared to accept in each market. These risks are almost exclusively linked to the level of cover the global custodian receives from its local sub-custodian. In turn, the local custodian must rely on the cover he receives from the local market infrastructure. Generally a custodian cannot accept liabilities if they cannot be offset in the local market through the standard of care provided by the local central securities depository (CSD) and the protection it affords through its insurance, guarantee funds etc. The standard of care provided by CSDs and clearing houses is generally not negotiable (Figure 1). Figure 1: Investor risk exposures  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Duggan1.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  source: Thomas Murray Ltd But to what extent is this risk real? Perhaps a good starting point to look at this is the United States, which is without doubt one of the safest markets in which to settle transactions in its domestic securities and to hold such assets in custody. But even here there are concerns, although fortunately on the depository infrastructure side some key issues have been recognised by The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the USA depository and the largest in the world. In January 2002, DTCC issued a paper entitled Straight-Through Processing: A new Model for Settlement, setting out its vision for the future of settlement in the USA. The paper includes a discussion of the current method of settling transactions between brokers (who generally use one of the US custodian banks for this purpose). Under this settlement process, which in a typical day involves 250,000 deliveries, some 10,000 get rejected (known locally as reclaims). This equates to approximately 1 delivery in 25 with a value in the region of USD7bn to USD10bn . When you take into consideration that some of these rejections are likely to occur on the day after the intended settlement date, if not later, the number of failing deliveries should concern any investor. If this is the situation in an advanced market such as the USA, investors should have greater settlement concerns in some of the world's smaller and emerging markets where, while the numbers of failing deliveries and their values are far less, the financial stability and regulation of the market and its participants may well not be up to the standards applied in the USA. Research carried out by Thomas Murray on the local capital market infrastructures of 104 markets globally has identified instances of high risk in 63% of markets (Figure 2). The findings show that Asia Pacific has the fewest instances with 47%, with Americas and Western Europe the most with 71%. Each market infrastructure was assessed against six different risk criteria: Asset commitment risk -- The period of time from when control of securities or cash is given up until receipt of countervalue. Liquidity risk -- The risk that insufficient securities and or funds are available to meet commitments; the obligation is covered sometime later. Counterparty risk -- The risk that a counterparty (i.e., an entity) will not settle its obligations for full value at any time. Financial risk -- The ability of the CSD to operate as a financially viable company. Operational risk -- The risk that deficiencies in information systems or internal controls, human errors or management failures will result in unexpected losses. CSD on CSD (credit) risk -- The credit risk that a CSD is taking when linking to another CSD. Figure 2: Instances of high risk in local capital market infrastructures, by region  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Duggan2.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Of these six risks, CSD on CSD (credit) risk is the newest area of investigation, as CSDs establish cross-border links. However, the creation of these links compounds investor risk as a result of one market infrastructure running potential risk to another. We consider that in many cases the full risk analysis has not been completed, with parties to the links brushing many of the potential problems aside in a rush to establish these links. Certainly, it is extremely difficult to acquire an analysis of this work, even if one was ever conducted. An example of potential exposure is CDS, the Canadian depository, which has recognised the exposure it has in the area of stock situations through its link with DTCC. In common with all DTCC participants, it must ensure that it tracks the corporate action activity on all the holdings it has placed with DTCC on behalf of its participants. Should an event get missed CDS would be liable and not DTCC, requiring the Canadian depository to expend considerable resources ensuring that this does not occur. One of the problems in assessing how reliable, and hence safe, a market settlement system is concerns obtaining reliable data on such matters as failing transactions -- let alone ascertaining exactly where liabilities lie during the settlement and subsequent on-going custody of the assets. In the more advanced markets, such as those in the UK and the US, the local regulators have ensured that reliable transaction data is readily available in a very transparent manner. In these markets, when the depository advises that they have a fail rate of approximately 5% (in the case of DTCC) or approaching 1% in the case of CRESTCo in the UK, one can rely on such figures. This is not always the case in some of the less transparent markets, and this includes some markets which are generally considered to be 'developed'. While independently produced benchmarking reports are available, these reports normally rely on data supplied by only a sub-set of the users of the local system, generally the custodians. But overall market percentages can be misleading. Thomas Murray's research has confirmed that in the majority of markets where separate systems exist, the settlement procedures used for market-side (broker-to-broker) settlements is more efficient that that adopted for broker-to-client settlements. This research is supported by the DTCC white paper, which reports that 6% of institutional transactions being settled on an average day are expected to fail, while the fail rate on the market-side is lower at 4.4%. For many years Thomas Murray has considered that it is essential that, before making an investment in a new market, a comprehensive analysis is undertaken of the local infrastructure. We are now in good company. Oversight of national and international securities depositories has assumed a new importance as a result of new regulation in the US and UK and discussion papers in the area from many respected supra-national and other international groups. This was led by the introduction of rule 17f-7, part of the 1940 Investment Company Act of the US. The new rule, while permitting a mutual fund to maintain assets with an eligible securities depository, requires the fund's 'primary custodian' to provide the fund, or its advisor, with an analysis of the custodial risks of using the depository, monitor the depository on a continuing basis, and notify the fund of any material changes in risks associated with using the depository. This was followed by the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) and the introduction in November 2001 of the latest conduct of business regulations, which require investors to assess risks associated with the use of both custodians and CSDs. The CPSS--IOSCO Joint Task Force on Securities Settlement Systems, set up by many of the major central banks and the global association of regulators (IOSCO), issued a recent report containing a number of significant recommendations. One of these (Recommendation 17 -- Transparency) states that CSDs and central counterparties should provide market participants with sufficient information for them to accurately identify and evaluate the risks and costs associated with using a CSD or a central counterparty service. Recommendation 19, which concerns risks in cross-border links, looks to ensure that CSDs that establish links to settle cross-border trades should design and operate such links to reduce effectively the risks associated with cross-border settlements. Many do not comply with these important recommendations. Inevitably, both clearing houses and depositories now face much closer scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers worldwide. This is particularly evident with the introduction of the single European capital market. A indication of the European Commission's thinking has already been given in the Giovanni Report on cross-border clearing and settlement, which recommended changes that would enable greater interoperability between national trading, clearing and settlement systems. The European Commission wants healthy competition and a level playing field, and there is little doubt that it will introduce regulation to achieve those aims if necessary. To date, local regulators have applied a very light touch with clearing and settlement houses, but that seems likely to change as the regulators tighten their grip on the infrastructure. Local market infrastructure risk assessment It is the general view that all depositories and clearing systems are undoubted organisations. If one should get into difficulties the local central bank, or even government, would step in and resolve the problem. However, this is not a financially prudent assumption to make when considering the value of investments that may be entrusted to them. While some are departments of the central bank, this number is reducing with their consolidation into the local equity and other depositories in several markets. Outside of the central bank operated depositories, there is no known independent depository which has a formal binding guarantee from its domestic central bank or government. Many market participants are astounded to find out that the CSDs, which they have unwaveringly trusted and which hold much of their assets, have varying levels of support, capital and insurance (see Figure 3). And there is no firm evidence to indicate that this problem is diminishing, as minimum standards for depositories have proved difficult to define, and CSDs start to demutualise into commercial entities. Figure 3: Examples of financial risk criteria  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Duggan3.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Market-led response The exposure to local capital market infrastructure risk suffered by institutional investors is an increasingly significant issue as market volatility increases. As we have seen, regulatory and commercial pressures to assess these risks have already started, with the new regulatory requirement under 17f-7 being very prescriptive in outlining the necessity for a first class analysis of CSD risk exposures. Naturally, many investors are turning to their custodians for this information, who themselves are looking at ways to meet these obligations on a subject not considered to be an area of differentiation where they want to compete against each. In addition, the cost of carrying out individual proprietary research to the level of detail required, together with full surveillance, would be prohibitive for most custodial groups. The Thomas Murray Depository Service emerged as the catalyst for co-operation between different interested parties to collectively meet the demands from custodians, broker/dealers and mutual fund boards for independent risk assessments, including on-going surveillance of CSDs globally. Through the Depository Service, Thomas Murray has brought together many leading global custodians and other entities to provide an inclusive cross-industry solution. The Service is available to any group wishing to participate. One key aspect of the Depository Service is that it is based on renewable, validated, global information. This is provided through a wide range of banks (and CSDs) keen to co-operate in global analysis and risk assessments where there is no obvious differentiation available through the provision of proprietary products and assessments. Each market is typically supported by at least two support banks and when you include the CSDs (who are invited to confirm the findings), and Thomas Murray, this ensures the assessments have been reviewed and agreed by four individual sources. The output from this service, which includes daily surveillance of CSDs through flash reports highlighting changes, is vital to meeting the regulatory obligations of market participants. Market infrastructure It must be borne in mind that, as good as a depository or clearing house may be, their effectiveness is constrained by the market and legal infrastructure in which they operate. It is most important that there is a reliable same-day, preferably real-time, payment system in the market, which they can use to effect funds transfer, ideally through the central bank. Real-time payment systems are now commonplace in major markets but are rarely linked to real-time securities movements. Reverting yet again to the DTCC white paper, it states that, even in the advanced US market, changes in payments arrangements are not expected to occur quickly. Clearly, it would be very beneficial to the completion of the safely executed trade if the securities settlement system of a country was directly or closely linked to a real-time payments system -- in the case of the US, the DTCC system to the FedWire system. It is also very desirable that the depository receives an automated flow of matched and agreed transactions directly from the stock exchange, as this ensures all trades are correct at the point of entry and aids settlement in the desired short timeframe. So what should investors exposed to local market infrastructures be concerned with, and what should be considered as part of an appropriate risk assessment? Thomas Murray believes that a minimum analysis at should include an examination of: delivery versus payment (DVP); net versus gross payment; if settlement is in central bank or commercial bank money; if stock lending is available for failed trades; counterparty risk exposure; settlement cycles; forms of securities; registration of transfer of title; cash/FX restrictions; financial backing of the CSD; the existence of a central counter party (CCP); the local market asset servicing environment; tax reclaims procedures; and the legal issues regarding segregation of assets and retrievability of securities in the event of default. Identifying the risk and actually assessing the risk, initially and on an on-gong basis, are very different issues. Taking DVP as the most common example, the problem is that even 11 years after the publication of the ubiquitous Group of Thirty recommendations there are still markets, some major, which do not even have a truly effective DVP procedure let alone true DVP. The central factor in the assessment of any settlement system should be a careful analysis of the claimed DVP mechanism. In fact, notwithstanding local claims to the contrary, most markets do not achieve a simultaneous exchange of securities and cash; many use a model which moves cash at a later stage during the settlement day. A good test is to look at the Asset Commitment Period within the system. This is the period of time during which use of securities or cash is lost before receipt of countervalue. Even in major markets in Western Europe and North America (or just America and Europe) it is not uncommon to see these periods, under some circumstances, being considerably longer than 24 hours. While there are often built-in compensating factors, such as guarantee funds, these add additional costs into the process. Another area of major concern, which has been known to lead to large financial losses, is the manner in which the local market services assets, i.e. corporate events, proxy voting and AGM/EGMs. While it is common practice for the depository to notify its participants of all stock events that are taking place in its eligible securities, it is frequently up to the participant to ensure that they obtain the resulting considerations. Particularly in markets where bearer stock is prevalent, the depository often does not guarantee that it will advise users of every stock event or advise users of their likely entitlements. Investors should check clauses in the contracts they have with their global custodians to ensure they will be made good if the local custodian, or depository, misses a stock event; otherwise a close examination of how the depository operates is critical, as there can be significant risk for the unwary from missed stock events. Thomas Murray's work in assessing and monitoring local market infrastructures globally, as demonstrated in Table 1, shows the level of risks identified across six key risk areas. What is immediately obvious is the large number of market infrastructures that involve a high level of at least one risk in their use. In many cases, it is effectively compulsory either by regulation or market practice to use the local administrative organisation such as the CSDs, which can expose the investor to risks when things go wrong. Investors should no longer ignore their risk exposures to local market infrastructures, including depositories, when assessing which markets to invest in. Thomas Murray is a research-based information, ratings and consultancy company specialising in supporting the investment and global securities services industries. The company supports the surveillance of custodian banks and market risk exposures. More information is available at  HYPERLINK "http://www.thomasmurray.com" \t "_blank" www.thomasmurray.com. Exchange Traded Funds: Where, from here? Christopher Traulsen Senior Analyst, Morningstar, Inc Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) made a huge splash back in 2000 as indexing giant Barclays Global Investors rolled out just over 40 new iShares offerings, State Street came out with its StreetTracks series, and mutual fund giant Vanguard announced it would enter the fray. 2001 also proved to be an eventful year for ETFs. A number of new funds appeared both in the US and overseas; a nasty spat broke out between Standard & Poors and Vanguard; and actively managed ETFs became a hot topic. In this article, we'll take a look at the major ETF trends that emerged in 2001, as well as performance for the year, then examine some key issues to watch in 2002. ETFs: A brief primer ETFs are baskets of securities that are traded, like individual stocks, on an exchange. Unlike regular open-end mutual funds, ETFs can be bought and sold throughout the trading day. They can also be sold short (even on the downtick) and bought on margin -- in brief, anything you might do with a stock you can do with an ETF. Most also charge lower annual expenses than even the least costly index mutual funds. However, as with stocks, you must pay a commission to buy and sell ETF shares, which can be a significant drawback for those who trade frequently or invest regular sums of money. There are a number of different ETFs that currently trade in the US, including Cubes (the Nasdaq-100 Trust), SPDRs, sector SPDRs, MidCap SPDRs, iShares, Diamonds, StreetTracks, and VIPERs. They are all passively managed, tracking a wide variety of sector-specific, country-specific, and broad-market indexes. Many more trade outside the US. ETFs' passive nature is a necessity (but as we'll see, the fund companies are trying to find a way around this limitation): the funds rely on an arbitrage mechanism to keep the prices at which they trade roughly in line with the net asset values (NAVs) of their underlying portfolios. For the mechanism to work, potential arbitrageurs need to have full, timely knowledge of a fund's holdings. Active managers, however, are loath to disclose such information more frequently than the SEC requires (which currently is twice a year). Do they deliver? ETFs have been aggressively marketed as having three distinct advantages over traditional index mutual funds: trading flexibility, lower expenses, and better tax-efficiency. These claims are valid for some investors and for some ETFs, but it's not quite as simple as it sounds. Intraday trading Trading flexibility is one area in which ETFs clearly have an advantage over index mutual funds. They trade throughout the day, whereas mutual funds do not. Investors whose strategies require intraday index trading will find this useful. We suspect, however, that apart from institutional investors using ETFs for hedging purposes, there's little point in day-trading indexes. Costs: More expensive than they look Many ETFs have lower annual expense ratios than equivalent index mutual funds. iShares S&P 500, for example, charges just 0.09% per year. Vanguard 500 Index, one of the cheapest index mutual funds, charges 0.18%, and also levies a USD10 annual fee on small accounts. However, trading costs can quickly offset ETFs' expense-ratio advantage. A USD10,000 investment in the iShares S&P 500 ETF will cost investors only USD9.00 per year in annual fees. But investors making monthly investments will also incur charges of USD96.00 for their trades over the course of the year (assuming a low, USD8 per trade, brokerage commission). In contrast, Vanguard 500 would cost just USD18 per year. Even if one has a small account, the USD10 service fee tacked on by Vanguard is minuscule compared to the costs of trading the ETF. This suggests that ETFs are only cost effective for those investors who plan to make lump-sum purchases of ETF shares and hold them long enough to allow the expense-ratio advantage to offset the commissions paid to purchase and liquidate the position. A corollary is that investors who take advantage of ETFs' trading flexibility quickly lose the benefits of ETFs' expense-ratio advantages. Investors who trade even a few times per year may well find that an ETF costs them more than a no-load index mutual fund. Not always tax-efficient ETFs should generally be more tax-efficient than equivalent mutual funds. Unlike mutual funds, their portfolios are insulated from investor redemptions that can force portfolio managers to sell securities. Retail investors buy and sell shares from each other on the open market, so the fund is not involved in the transactions. Further, those investors who can redeem shares from the fund company -- institutions dealing in 'creation units' (a creation unit is typically a 50,000-share block) -- must take their redemptions in the underlying portfolio securities, not in cash. This eliminates the need for the portfolio manager to raise cash to meet redemptions, and also gives the manager the opportunity to flush-out low cost-basis shares, reducing the embedded gains in the ETF. Still, not all ETFs are tax-efficient. First, ETFs are only as tax-efficient as their underlying benchmarks. ETFs that track indexes with more turnover, for example, are likely to pay out more capital gains than ETFs that track indexes with less turnover. Generally speaking, smaller-cap indexes tend to have higher turnover than larger-cap indexes. Further, registered investment companies in the US, including ETFs, lose the right to pass-through capital gains to shareholders if they have more than 25% of their assets in the securities of any one issuer at the end of a fiscal quarter. This means that funds that track indexes that have weightings approaching 25% in single issuers may be forced to sell down positions and make large distributions. The latter problem has the greatest potential to appear among ETFs that track single country and sector indexes, many of which are highly concentrated. iShares MSCI Canada and iShares MSCI Sweden, for example, track indexes that are heavily weighted in Nortel Networks and LM Ericsson, respectively. In August 2000, the funds paid capital gains that amounted to 23% and 18% of their respective NAVs. Mutual funds tracking the same indexes would run into similar problems, but it's clear that ETFs are not de facto tax-efficient. 2001: A look back Performance For equity markets in the US and abroad, 2001 proved to be a difficult year indeed. Technology and telecom shares were down sharply, as were most growth stocks. But amid all the doom and gloom, there were a few bright spots. Value stocks and defensive areas such as real estate and precious metals held up much better than other segments of the market. Stock performance was also dramatically different across market cap ranges. As in 2000, small caps dramatically outperformed large caps in both the growth and value arenas. ETFs clearly reflected the trends in the overall market. Among broad (non-specialty) offerings, ETFs tracking small-cap value indices were among the best performers. iShares Russell 2000 Value Index and iShares S&P Small-Cap 600/Barra Value Index both notched double-digit returns on the year, with iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400/Barra Value index close on their heels. On the flip side, the technology heavy Nasdaq-100 Trust, or QQQ, skidded to a 34% loss in 2001. Other large-cap growth ETFs were also hit hard, with the StreetTracks Dow Jones US Large Cap Growth Index and iShares Russell 1000 Growth index funds losing more than 20% each for the period. Among specialty ETFs, the performance differential between growth and value sectors was extreme. ETF's tracking Internet shares suffered the worst losses, with the iShares Dow Jones US Internet Index and StreetTracks Morgan Stanley Internet Index funds losing more than 50% each. US investors fled Internet stocks in droves as the poor economic environment and a glut of capacity led the major players to ratchet back spending on networking gear and debt-laden Internet services companies struggled to survive. On the flip side, funds focused on more-defensive sectors fared quite well. iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate was one of the best performers. ETFs focused on cyclicals and consumer-related stocks also delivered healthy gains. On the international front, funds tracking Mexico and emerging Asian markets such as South Korea and Taiwan were strong. iShares MSCI Japan was easily the weakest single-country ETF, as the Japanese economy continued to struggle. Europe in general was also soft, with iShares Italy and iShares Switzerland among the hardest hit single-country funds. New funds Although the expansion of ETFs in the US slowed somewhat in 2001, the number of ETFs available in other countries burgeoned. In the US, 22 new ETFs were offered, fewer than the 50 new additions in 2000. Barclays Global Investors rolled out by far the most new offerings, adding significantly to its iShares line-up. The new iShares included five global sector offerings tracking S&P indexes in the areas of telecommunications, technology, healthcare, financials, and energy. Barclays also brought to market new iShares offerings tracking Goldman Sachs US indexes in the technology, software, semiconductor, networking, and natural resources sectors. There were only three new US offerings from other firms: Vanguard's Total Stock Market VIPERs and Extended Market VIPERs, and StreetTracks Wilshire REIT index from State Street Global Advisors. Outside the US, the number of ETFs rose sharply in 2001 and early 2002. Data from State Street Global Advisors show that 96 new ETFs have been launched outside the US since the end of 2000, most of them in Europe (including the UK), with others in Asia, Canada, Australia and South Africa. By early 2002, State Street's data showed that the number of ETFs outside the US stood at 110, more than the 102 available in the US. Several US Funds are now also cross-listed on exchanges in Singapore and Hong Kong, including Diamonds, the S&P 500 SPDR, iShares Dow Jones US Technology, iShares MSCI Singapore, iShares MSCI South Korea, and iShares MSCI Japan. Asset growth and trading volume ETF asset growth in the US continued apace in 2001. According to data from the Investment Company Institute, US ETF assets grew by USD17bn in 2001, with USD31bn in net new issuance (the inflows were more than offset by depreciation). However, the most recent figures show that US ETFs pulled in just USD256m in net inflows in January 2002, a month when equity mutual funds garnered USD19.6bn. ETF assets also continue to be concentrated in relatively few funds in the US. The S&P 500 SPDR has nearly USD30bn in assets, while the Nasdaq 100 Trust has just over USD20bn in assets. Together, the two funds account for about 60% of US ETF assets. No other US ETF even approaches their size: The next largest offering is the MidCap SPDR, which has just under USD5bn in assets. Fueled by the enormous amounts of capital washing in and out of technology stocks, and the huge popularity of the Nasdaq-100 index, the Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQ) is by far the most heavily traded ETF. On average, QQQ traded 72 million shares a day over the trailing 12 months ended March 5, 2002. The next-most-traded issue was the S&P 500 SPDR, which averaged about 15 million shares a day. Other volume leaders for the period include Diamonds (4 million shares), the Financial Select Sector SPDR (1.2 million shares), the Technology Select Sector SPDR (1.1 million shares), and the MidCap SPDR (1 million shares). That said, trading volume and asset levels are much lower for many US ETFs, suggesting that fund companies may have overestimated investors' appetite for the vehicles. Recent Morningstar data show that 60 of 102 US ETFs have less than USD100m in assets (USD100m is considered small for a US mutual fund). Of those, 41 ETFs had less than USD50m in assets (17 of the ETFs that have less than USD100m in assets only launched in the last year, however, and they may well grow over time). The pattern is also apparent on the trading front, where Morningstar data show that 66 ETFs have traded fewer than 50,000 shares a day on average. S&P stops VIPERs If some companies appear to offer a surfeit of ETFs, at least one had trouble getting out of the starting gate. US indexing giant Vanguard lost a highly publicised dispute with Standard & Poors in 2001, and was prevented from creating ETFs based on S&P indexes. Vanguard had planned to create ETF shareclasses for a number of its existing mutual funds based on S&P indexes, including its flagship Vanguard 500 fund. The firm assumed its current licensing agreements with S&P allowed it to create the ETFs without paying additional licensing fees to S&P. That would have worked nicely: The fees -- negotiated long ago -- are minuscule compared to the sums other index licensees pay. S&P was, naturally, less than keen on the idea. It took Vanguard to court over the matter and won. Vanguard has thus been unable to create ETFs based on S&P indexes. It did, however, launch the Total Stock Market VIPER and Extended Market VIPER in 2001 (Vanguard is calling its ETFs VIPERs, for Vanguard Index Participation Equity Receipts). The former tracks the Wilshire 5000 index, and the latter tracks the Wilshire 4500 Index. 2002: What lies ahead? Asset growth ETF assets are still a mere drop in the bucket when compared to mutual funds. Moreover, a significant number of them have remained quite small, and seem to be having trouble gaining traction in the marketplace. Although none of the fund companies have yet shown any signs of throwing in the towel, it wouldn't be surprising to see some of these funds liquidated if the situation continues. Prime candidates might include some of the smaller sector and single-country offerings. iShares Dow Jones US Chemical, StreetTracks Morgan Stanley Internet, iShares MSCI Belgium, and iShares S&P/TSE 60 recently had less than USD10m in assets each, as did a handful of other offerings. The industry's growth may also be limited by the commodity-like nature of its offerings. Put simply, once there's an ETF that tracks a specific index, there's not much point in other firms bringing out ETFs that track the same index. For mutual funds, multiple sales channels effectively provide different markets for funds tracking the same indexes, but ETFs are available to all equity market participants. Further, given their already compressed expense ratios, there appears to be limited room for price competition. Given that most money flows to relatively few, high-profile indexes, it may become increasingly difficult for new ETFs to attract significant capital. ETFs' are also presently shut out of the market for actively managed funds. That portion of the market is huge, as many investors continue to believe in the virtues of active management. Actively managed ETFs Perhaps aware of the limits of indexing, some ETF companies are working to develop actively managed ETFs. In doing so, they're confronted by at least two problems. First, an extremely high level of portfolio disclosure is the lynch-pin of the ETFs' ability to keep their market prices close to their NAVs, but such frequent disclosure has the potential to increase the market impact of actively managed funds. Second, like all ETFs, actively managed offerings would require exemptive relief from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Before granting such relief, the SEC must find that it would be in the public interest and consistent with the protection of investors and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Only investors dealing in the large blocks of shares called 'creation units' can purchase or redeem ETF shares directly from the ETF at NAV. All other investors buy or sell ETF shares from other investors -- at market prices, not NAV -- over the designated stock exchange. The idea is that if the market price of an ETF's shares diverges from its NAV, large investors will use their opportunity to buy or sell creation units at NAV to earn riskless profits. In so doing, they will either buy or sell enough ETF shares on the market to drive its market price back into line with its NAV. To accomplish this, however, those dealing in creation units must have relatively full and timely disclosure of portfolio holdings, something that could crimp an actively managed fund's ability to implement its strategy effectively. The SEC is clearly concerned about this issue. In a recent concept release asking for public input, it noted that if an actively managed ETF disclosed its portfolio less frequently, it " . . . could have a less efficient arbitrage mechanism than index-based ETFs, which could lead to more significant premiums or discounts [relative to NAV] in the market price of its shares". The commission also noted that actively managed ETFs might not be as tax-efficient or have expenses as low as index-based ETFs. The latter is an important point. ETFs have been sold largely as cost-effective, tax-efficient alternatives to mutual funds. As we've seen, the cost argument doesn't always hold true, because it fails to take into account brokerage commissions. But actively managed ETFs would likely have steeper annual expense ratios than indexed ETFs. They would also presumably trade their holdings more often, on average, than index ETFs, eroding their tax-efficiency. Fund companies have responded to the SEC's queries in various ways. Nuveen proposes 'self-indexing' funds (a concept which the firm is apparently trying to patent) that would essentially define the index being 'tracked' as whatever securities the fund happens to own each day. The index's daily closing value would be the ETF's NAV. Self-indexing funds would report daily portfolios, according to Nuveen's response to the SEC. Yet, whatever one calls it, this doesn't appear to account for the possibility of intraday changes to the portfolio. The more actively managed such an ETF were, i.e. the more trades it made each day, the likelier its market price would be to deviate from its NAV. State Street's response to the SEC acknowledges that the market prices of active funds might deviate more from their NAVs than those of indexed ETFs', but argues that the SEC should let market forces determine if such offerings are desirable. Investors, argues State Street, are less likely to use ETFs whose market prices do not track their NAVs closely. Barclays Global Investors, which runs index funds almost exclusively, sounds the most negative note among the various responses to the SEC's queries. The firm says that retail investors, the primary audience for actively managed funds, might "derive little benefit from the ability to trade such shares intraday, and, under certain circumstance, may be disadvantaged". More information about Morningstar, Inc can be found at  HYPERLINK "http://www.morningstar.com" \t "_blank" www.morningstar.com. Internalisation R T 'Tee' Williams R Shriver Associates The structure of the equity markets is undergoing dramatic changes worldwide. In the United States this change is happening at a pace that is unparalleled since the creation of the National Market system following the Securities Acts Amendments of 1975. Ironically, from 1997 to 2000, there was immense publicity about the development of Electronic Communications Networks (ECNs) and other Alternative Trading Systems (ATSs). Now the changes that were hyped then are actually happening. In this paper we will look at changes that are happening in the United States in the light of four scenarios for the ultimate market structure. These scenarios represent a framework that both markets and market participants can use for evaluating strategic alternatives. We will then consider parallels for Europe and possibly Asia. Background The market structure that evolved in the United States in the last quarter of the twentieth century involved an equity market divided roughly equally between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq Stock Market (Nasdaq) as the two primary markets for original listing. During this period the American Stock Exchange declined in importance as an equity listings market, except for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Regional markets competed for NYSE order flow and market makers traded Nasdaq issues in an over-the-counter environment. Beginning in 1997, the Securities and Exchange Commission's Limit Order Display Rule[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38786" \l "note1#note1" 1] promoted the creation of ECNs, and a market structure that had been stable for nearly twenty years began to change. Most observers seemed to assume that the chaos of the late 1990s was a transient phase while the market evolved to a new equilibrium. Two important questions emerge from this assumption. First, is the assumption correct -- are we evolving to a new equilibrium, or have we entered an environment where change is continuous? Second, if a new equilibrium is evolving, what will it look like -- who will dominate the markets and what will the structure be? We will address these issues in reverse order. Scenario planning Scenario planning is designed to help develop strategies in situations where the future is uncertain. We will develop four extreme descriptions of possible future environments. We will try to understand the conditions that could cause these extreme cases to evolve. We will then describe the economic environment that would exist once the scenario has developed and assess its impact on market participants, both positive and negative. Realistically, it is highly unlikely that any one of these extreme scenarios will evolve. The future environment is more likely to display aspects of each. By considering the extreme cases, however, we are better able to consider the best strategies for more reasonable alternatives. Four scenarios for market evolution It is useful to think about the markets along two primary dimensions. First, markets may become more centralised or they may continue to fragment. Second, markets may be dominated in the future, as they were in the past, by broker-dealers. Alternatively, investors -- the buy side -- may become more dominant (as many have predicted for years). This is shown in Figure 1, with each of four extreme scenarios represented by metaphorical labels. Figure 1: Four scenarios for market evolution  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Williams.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  We will explain the allusions and describe each scenario below. Scenario 1: Gtterdmmerung In Wagner's Ring Cycle the gods are locked in battle. The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq stock market could reassert their former dominance and fight to the death with only one survivor. Situation The NYSE dismantles the National Market System. Without market data revenues the regional exchanges cease to exist as effective alternatives for executions at any level. Nasdaq and the NYSE quickly engage in fierce direct competition and one survives. Environment The SEC bemoans the lack of competitive markets but is pleased to see the end of fragmentation. It insists that all orders receive time and price priority and that all trades be printed through the surviving market. A central limit order book (CLOB) evolves for small executions, 'electronic-floor' crosses handle large trades and a bulletin board handles illiquid issues. The cost of execution for CLOB trades approaches zero as competition to provide access to the market diminishes the agency fees. Brokers only provide financial guarantees for these trades and, as automation reduces the settlement cycle, there is little settlement risk. Institutions seek free direct access for small agency trades. Scenario 2: King John at Runnymede In 1215 the English nobles defeated King John at Runnymede forcing him to sign the Magna Carta. The large broker-dealers could assert themselves as the dominant centres in a process called internalisation, and wrest primary market control for themselves. Situation With NYSE Rule 390 gone, large firms begin to develop 'internal markets'. These markets are effectively in-house ECNs. The firms bring all orders into a central 'market system' that, for the first time, permits firms to look at all orders the firm receives in a common environment. Orders from all sources are able to interact and cross if possible. Customer crosses are priced at the mean of the national best bid and offer (NBBO). Orders not able to cross are handled in accordance with customer instructions, if any. If there are no instructions, the firm handles the orders in one of two ways. Orders that are attractive may be executed in the firm's dealer operation against inventory. Other orders are routed to the markets either by rules-based order routing or using dynamic (smart) routing systems. Firms find that market-making is decreasingly profitable and focus primarily on proprietary trading using the information from the orders passing through the internal market as the basis for in-house trading decisions. The internal markets provide a real-time view of supply and demand. Match rates for the firm's order flow are initially low because factors such as investment research tend to bias customer orders in an individual security. Firms with diverse order flow (i.e. a mix of retail, institutional and correspondent orders) find the match rates to be acceptable. Firms find they can increase their match rates if they actively seek 'out-of-phase' orders -- orders from traders that tend to be counter (i.e. are on the opposite side) to the majority of firmorders -- to increase the potential for crosses. The NYSE initially holds the line against in-house crossing, believing that it 'destroys price discovery and kills the chance for price improvement'. When Primex and Nasdaq InterMarket exceed 10% of the total listed market, the Exchange changes rules to permit firms to 'print' internal market trades on the NYSE. The NYSE soon develops a system that permits orders traded in-house to be exposed to the floor. The SEC is troubled by the potential for conflicts of interest but is unable to craft a reasonable alternative. One major issue develops when the number of orders executing within firms becomes a large portion of total executions. There is a perceived loss of transparency. Connecting major firms' internal markets directly to CTA/CQOC and ITS[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38786" \l "note2#note2" 2] solves the problem The SEC makes certain that internal markets protect retail customers. Institutions initially object to the concept of internal markets but their unified front quickly crumbles when many institutions discover that they can cut very attractive deals in which the institution is paid for its order flow deals by major broker-dealers. Environment For retail investors there is little perceptible change in their executions. Super-low-cost trades become rare unless the characteristics of the trade are attractive to broker-dealers. Institutions find internalised markets attractive or not depending on the types of orders they typically place. Institutions with orders that are out of phase with typical orders find that they are in high demand. Out-of-phase orders are coveted by broker-dealers and brokers bid for the right to execute the orders. Institutions that have more typical orders find that execution costs rise. Broker-dealers without diverse order flow have a hard time competing. There is little interest in the services of dealers except on large orders and less liquid securities. There is much consolidation among those firms that historically focused on trading. Pure agency firms do well, but wholesale firms and other primary market makers have a difficult time surviving independently. Exchanges become less important. An exchange becomes a place to layoff unattractive orders and to rebalance inventory. Most of the regional exchanges do not survive. The NYSE becomes less of a general marketplace and focuses on providing special services to its members. Nasdaq finds that having become for-profit puts it in direct competition with its members. Nasdaq becomes a price-reporting facility and is dependent on systems efficiency to survive. ECNs choose among three strategic roles. An ECN can survive as an adjunct to an agency brokerage operation. Alternatively, an ECN can become a facility in support of major internalising broker-dealers. Finally, the ECN can give up its dream of becoming a self-sustaining market and become a portal to other markets. Scenario 3: Chng Ho During the Ming Dynasty the civil servants became more powerful than the emperor and attempted world exploration and conquest. For thirty years it has been predicted that institutional investors, whose order flow dominates the equities markets, would assert their economic muscle and seize control of the trading process. Situation Institutions become increasingly unhappy with the perceived broker-dealers'conflict of interest in their role as intermediaries and seek an intermediary of their own. Several alternatives are tried, but one workable solution is the creation of an independent, mutually owned intermediary. This is very similar in concept to the creation of Knight Securities by broker-dealers, but the new broker/dealer(s) is(are) mutualised among the institutions instead. Brokers counter institutionally-owned intermediaries by offering to run proprietary 'internal markets' for institutions. These systems are similar to State Street's Lattice system and permit institutional fund complexes to cross orders internally. More aggressive sites begin to seek added order flow from other customer groups and other institutions. The additional order flow increases the match rates. Regional exchanges, under strong competitive pressure, begin to offer membership to institutions. Clearing broker-dealers are created to clear and guarantee trades. The effect of both systems is to reduce institutional commissions dramatically. Institutions with attractive order flow (high probability of natural crosses) are paid for order flow. Other institutions pay rates near zero for simple orders and lower commissions for more complex trades. Environment While institutions (e.g. Fidelity) were concerned about sending to their own broker-dealers (e.g. Fidelity Capital Markets), they are very happy to use a mutually owned broker/dealer. Institutions participating in the ownership of intermediaries receive both lower commissions and dividends from their ownership. Retail investors with smaller orders see little impact but those with larger orders (roughly several thousand shares) that now might match with an institutional order have a harder time executing. Broker-dealers see their role diminish. They have a smaller cushion from simple trades to subsidise harder trades and the cost of complex trades becomes higher. Institutions, however, are unwilling to pay the true cost of complex trades. There is significant contraction in the business. The primary source of broker/dealer revenue becomes proprietary trading. The overall size and importance of the broker/dealer community diminishes. Scenario 4: Gulliver bound by Lilliputians Gulliver awoke in Lilliput to find he was completely bound by hundreds of strings. Individually the strings could be easily broken, but together they were too strong for Gulliver to break. With some relatively straightforward operational changes, trading could devolve to the point where eBay-like electronic markets would permit investors to trade with little or no need for conventional intermediaries. Situation A number of execution alternatives begin to emerge that are individually quite small, but together represent a substantial fraction of the market: Listed companies create internal markets that permit existing shareholders to sell their shares to other investors. This creates a proprietary secondary market for the companies shares. A clearing broker/dealer is hired or created to guarantee trades. Web portals create trading environments where investors can post 'interests to trade.' These portals register as broker-dealers to facilitate the transactions. Institutions, wanting to participate in these emerging markets, create their own sites where they are prepared to act as 'market-makers of the moment' for securities in which they have an interest. While these sites seldom offer two-sided markets, there are in aggregate enough such sites to provide general execution immediacy. Environment At first these markets are highly fragmented. The cost of searching for liquidity is high even though the execution costs are low. Technology quickly solves this problem. The sites offer both counterparty search engines and smart orders. Counterparty search engines -- 'stock bots' -- create a list of potential trades that a prospective customer can access. Traders place orders with potential counterparties using financial guarantees from intermediaries or posted credit lines. Bilateral agreements between the portals facilitate clearing. Smart orders allow a would-be trader to send an order into the Internet armed with specific instructions on what to trade and at what prices. The order can be active or passive (the order either executes or simply reports back its findings). The search process creates latency -- a lag between the time when the order is entered and when its executed -- in which prices can change, altering the economics of the trade. Creating directories throughout the Internet that keep updated lists of bids and offers collected from multiple sites solves the latency problem. Smart orders can check these directories while in transit to update their search lists of potential targets. Summary These four distinct market structures are based on who controls (or exerts the primary influence on) the markets and whether the markets are fragmented or centralised. While none of these environments are likely to evolve as described, they present a framework for evaluating less extreme alternatives. The possibility of stable equilibrium One outcome that seems unlikely is that a highly integrated, stable environment will evolve. First, each of the existing trading environments satisfies the needs of one or more important constituencies. Moreover, innovation and economics are creating new alternatives. And even established competitors are changing at a frenetic pace. Implications for Europe and Asia It is common for spokespeople from European markets to react with alarm and disdain to the chaos in US market structure. It is true that most national markets in Europe trade in a single market, or in linked markets as in Germany. However, if one looks at Europe as a single entity rather than a collection of economically independent countries, the parallels are strong. For cross-border trading in the most liquid securities there is great fragmentation and it is hard to construct a scenario for the creation of a single pan-national market. Past attempts to create a pan-European market have failed. So long as marketplaces can court user groups with diverse needs, unity will be hard to achieve. Asia has not yet begun to consolidate and so the traditional, national market remains strong in most countries. The presence of large companies operating in many different countries suggests an environment where each market centre can begin to poach significant amounts of order flow in companies from other countries that are well known to local investors. Inevitably, local markets will begin to compete both within the region and globally. Conclusion The inter-market competition and fragmentation in the US is more likely the norm than a transient condition that will fade in time. Technology creates an environment where location matters little, tradition matters less and national pride matters not at all. Perhaps the best commentary on the future of the markets is a portion of a poem entitled The Second Coming by William Butler Yeats, written in 1919 about the 'troubles in Ireland: Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosened upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. The idea of a 'centre' to the market has been lost. It is difficult to predict the future. Alas, we do not lack for those, 'full of passionate intensity', who are only too pleased to preach their vision of the future. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38786" \l "ref1#ref1" 1] In 1997 the SEC began to require Nasdaq market makers with non-discretionary customer limit orders to display the order in the market makers quote if the limit price was better than the market makers existing quote. Electronic limit order books registered as brokers (termed ECNs by the SEC) became a means for displaying customer limits in Nasdaq. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38786" \l "ref2#ref2" 2] The Consolidated Tape Association and Consolidated Quote Operating Committee (CTA/CQOC) are the entities in the US that administer the collection of last sale reports and quotes (respectively) for NYSE and AMEX-listed securities. The entities are currently owned by the exchanges. CTA/CQOC also collects and allocates the revenues from exchange fees among the participating exchanges. The Intermarket Trading System (ITS) routes orders among the exchanges Trees and furniture Andy Murphy PA Consulting Group The longest sneezing attack, according to official records, lasted 993 days. The same figure -- 993 -- is the number of millions of US dollars revenue that exchanges made in the year 2000 from selling their real-time data. A figure not to be sneezed at -- but is it enough? Compare this with the revenues of data vendors such as Reuters, who take real-time data from the exchanges, repackage it and distribute it to the exchanges' customers. In 2000 Reuters generated revenues of about USD2,500m, over twice that made by the exchanges, from the same raw materials. Interestingly, 2,500 is the approximate number of four-letter words in the English language. Should executives at the exchanges be uttering expletives in the realisation of the value that they are giving away? Or should they listen to Bernie Weinstein, CEO of the data vendor ILX, who says that "the exchanges should grow the trees and the data vendors should make the furniture". In their former mutually owned days, exchanges were less concerned about making money and more concerned about the quality of order execution and supporting services. Now, as they are increasingly owned by shareholders who are not active participants at the exchange, financial performance takes top priority. But the opportunities to improve financial performance are limited. The number one revenue stream for most exchanges -- transaction fees -- is being squeezed as competing venues fight for market share on price, and as their eventual customers -- the investing sector -- become more cost conscious. What about the business that, for many exchanges, is the number two revenue stream: so called 'Information Products'? To date, exchanges have been extremely innovative in packaging and selling information products containing real-time or reference market data. But one apparently easy target remains. Exchanges could make a move for the large slice of market data revenue currently captured by the data vendors -- Reuters, Bloomberg, Thomson Financial and their peers -- by disintermediating these data vendors and selling their real-time data direct to their customers. In this article we examine why the exchanges have not done this before, and why it may be possible today as a result of new technology. Finally, we look at whether the exchanges' customers -- the banks and brokerages that need exchange data -- would allow this to happen. Will it be milk and honey for the exchanges, and curtains for the data vendors? Read on and find out. You Never Give Me Your Money Data vendors capture most of the value from real-time exchange data The world market for exchange-sourced information products is, at a conservative estimate, USD6bn. Of this revenue, only USD1bn is captured by the exchanges from where the data comes. The remaining value is captured by data vendors who clean, consolidate and repackage the data for their customers. The USD1bn of exchange revenues take the form of exchange fees, charged by the exchanges and usually collected by the data vendors. An exchange fee is a personal license to use specific data from an exchange. A site fee may also be levied. Payment of an exchange fee will not in itself provide an end user with anything. The data vendors collect data from exchanges, mix in news and value added data (e.g. VWAP, intraday highs and lows) and deliver the data to end users, often via workstation products specifically designed for the display of financial information. The USD5bn of data vendor revenues represent the payment by end users for this service. Usually, customers buy a market data package from a data vendor, and then pay exchange fees for the selection of exchanges that each individual user needs. Data from the remaining exchanges will usually be available delayed by 15 or 20 minutes, thereby avoiding the need to pay for exchange fees from those sources. We can see how value is delivered from exchanges to end users by looking at two value chains, both showing the delivery of data to an individual user, rather than to a collection of users in a firm. The first value chain is for the delivery of real-time data to a trader on a single exchange. We assume that this user pays only one exchange fee -- in this example to the London Stock Exchange -- and receives the remaining data delayed, in order to avoid fees. Figure 1: Domestic data value chain  HYPERLINK "javascript:pops('images/articles/murphy1.gif','murphy1',470,224)"  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/murphy1_thumb.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET It is difficult to generalise about exchange data value chains because of the variety of fee rates and business models used. The above model, based on London Stock Exchange's published tariffs for Level 1 data, is fairly representative of industry norms. In this example the exchange levies two charges: an end user exchange fee (USD50 per month per user) and a wholesale fee for the vendor (a total of USD34,000 per year, but negligible when split across thousands of subscribers). An individual end user would pay a total of about USD300 per month to a data vendor for access to the same data within an open systems environment (i.e. without any display application). This consists of the USD50 exchange fee that the vendor collects on behalf of the exchange, and USD250 for a data vendor 'domestic data only' package (excluding original editorial content that would need to be purchased separately). The mark up on the raw data is 500%, or six times. We can also look at a more complex example. Below is the same value chain, but illustrated using the example of an international cash equities trader. This trader needs full depth of real-time data from Nasdaq, NYSE, LSE, Euronext and Deutsche Brse (Xetra). Figure 2: International data value chain  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/murphy2.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  In this example, the total fees for Level 2 data from the five exchanges are USD330 per month. The vendor would charge a total of USD780, consisting of about USD450 for an 'international' data package excluding news, plus the USD330 that is passed directly to the exchange. The vendor mark up in this example is much less than in the domestic example: 150%, or 2.5 times. Not all exchange data is worth money. Exchanges that have attracted liquidity in major stocks can charge a premium for their prices, because these prices effectively define the market price for the instruments. Other exchanges, with less liquidity or with less popular stocks, are forced to give their data away for free, as a form of advertising for business. Over time, if they succeed in attracting liquidity away from their competitors, they may be able to charge for their data. As an aside, it is interesting to note the use of market data fees by US stock markets as a weapon to attract business. In February 2002, Island defected from Nasdaq to the Cincinnati Stock Exchange, taking with it 20% of Nasdaq's trading volume. This move was triggered by the promise of a larger share of market data revenues -- 75% compared to the 60% that Nasdaq shared with its traders. Nasdaq responded by increasing its handout to 80% of market data revenues, but only for firms that report at least 95% of their trades through Nasdaq. From Me To You Data vendors play an essential role in the distribution of exchange data Exchanges broadcast their data to the data vendors, who as we have seen will package it up with other data and charge a premium of between 150% and 500%. The data from exchanges will be in a proprietary format, so one of the jobs of the data vendor is to translate the format into a standard that will be understood by their customers. Many exchanges also offer their feed to end users. Customers that take this exchange feed will need to develop their own 'feed handler' to translate the feed contents into a meaningful format. Figure 3 shows the consolidation of data from multiple exchanges, and the delivery of two alternative offerings: a 'closed' solution for screen users, accessing data on a workstation only, and an 'open' solution feeding into a customer's market data platform such as Triarch. This platform can collect data from multiple sources (e.g. direct from exchanges, or from alternative vendors) and can distribute data to applications and workstations on the customer site.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/murphy3.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Member firms at an exchange will usually have electronic access to the market through a trading interface. This may be an in-house development (written to the exchange's trading API) or may be provided by an independent software vendor (ISV) with connections to multiple exchanges, such as GL Trade. The trading interface will usually provide the same or better market data than the exchange's market data feed. However, many firms will take the market data feed too -- effectively paying for their own data -- because it is easier to integrate into their market data distribution platform. Revolution New technology could help exchanges to capture more value If there is value for exchanges to capture from data vendors, why aren't they doing it already? In a sense they are; as explained earlier, many exchanges offer a raw feed as well as providing data to vendors to redistribute. However, few customers choose this option because of the technical difficulty and the cost. The technical difficulty arises because each exchange feed uses different messaging formats and telecommunications protocols. Customers would need to develop a feed handler for each exchange they need to access. The costs arise because customers would need to connect directly to each exchange -- usually an international, high capacity dedicated line -- rather than have a single connection to a local data centre providing all their data needs. So, despite the opportunity to avoid the data vendor mark up on exchange data, and to get their data a few milliseconds faster, few customers choose this option. Three technological developments change the picture. The first is XML, or at least a market data specific variant such as the Market Data Definition Language (MDDL). MDDL -- or any other messaging format that the exchanges could agree on -- would solve one of the problems that data vendors currently fix: the need to convert a range of proprietary, exchange specific data formats into a standard format. The second development is the emergence of secure, reliable IP data networks such as Radianz, Savvis and (at the time of writing) Global Crossing. These networks would allow exchanges to connect to their customers without needing the help of a data vendor. In fact, LIFFE already uses a global network managed by Equant (who own half of Radianz) to provide worldwide access to their trading system, though not at present for their market data. The third development is the availability of a technology to send 'streaming' data -- for example unsolicited quote and trade messages -- over an IP network. This technology has been developed by the data vendors themselves, and by development houses such as Caplin Systems, who offer the Real Time Trading Protocol (RTTP). In summary, the combination of a standard messaging format (e.g. MDDL) and a secure, reliable, worldwide data network (e.g. Radianz) with a data streaming capability (e.g. RTTP) would allow exchanges to publish their market data direct to their customers. If they did this, the distribution model would change from the one shown in Figure 3, with the data vendors collecting and distributing data, to the one shown in Figure 4.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/murphy4.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Under the Direct Delivery model, data from multiple exchanges is consolidated on a single network and delivered to end user workstations (with a feed handler included in the workstation) or to market data platforms. The workstations or other end user applications would be responsible for bringing a common look and order to the data, perhaps applying market rules such as the calculation of highs, lows and end of day prices. Unlike today, when a feed handler is required for each exchange feed, a single feed handler would be needed to capture data onto a market data platform. The next question to address is this: assuming this delivery model could be created, how could exchanges use it to their commercial advantage? Without decisive action, exchanges would see no change to the fees they collect, whilst the banks and brokerages that use the data would see significant savings in their market data bills, even assuming that they pay separately for the data delivery network. Exchanges could reasonably expect a share of the rewards, but how could this be achieved? A possible pricing strategy would be to offer two feeds: the existing feed in an unchanged proprietary format, as used by the data vendors and a few end users, could continue to be offered at the same price as today. A new Direct Delivery feed over a global network, using XML or another standard protocol, would be offered at a premium. Differential pricing between data vendors and end users for the same feed, which is illegal in the US, would not be needed. An alternative strategy would be to arrange revenue sharing with the provider of the distribution network. Exchange fees would remain unchanged in this scenario. End users would buy a combined package of exchange data and connectivity. Each exchange would need to negotiate their revenue share separately with the network provider. Data vendors could continue to access exchange data, either by direct connection as now or from the network provider. Please Please Me End users of real-time data are not happy Perhaps the strongest argument for a move to the Direct Delivery model is that the banks and brokerages, which are the ultimate customers for all this data, want a change. This is not just a cost issue, although the IT and market data budgets for firms using exchange data are under intense pressure. User firms are also concerned about data vendors forcing costs on them every time the vendors choose to change their technology. According to one insider, the banks are looking to break away from single supplier architectures in order to avoid this in the future. They will do this by exploiting standards. The largest user firms also see a great advantage in taking data direct from exchanges. Firstly, it arrives quicker, because it avoids the complex processing that the data vendors apply. Secondly, it is also more 'faithful': it does not suffer from the application of market rules that the user firms feel are their responsibility, and not the data vendors'. After all, they are the experts in the markets. Of course, the buyers of information products in the banks and brokerages must be conservative and cautious. They must protect existing investments in infrastructure and applications, and must absolutely avoid risk. Despite pressures to reduce costs, they are resistant to fixing things that 'ain't broke'. So a strong theoretical argument for a new data delivery model would not be enough to move user firms to it. However, a number of changes will be forced on them over the next few years -- notably the introduction of T+1 and STP, and the switch by Reuters from Triarch to RMDS -- and these changes will encourage user firms to consider their options. The timing may be right for a new delivery model. Hello Goodbye Data vendor revenues may get squeezed So far we have established that exchanges need to increase their information product revenues, and that new technologies could allow them to do this by selling real-time data direct to end users. What would these changes mean for data vendors? We do not believe that all user firms would switch to Direct Delivery. The largest firms, currently taking 'open' solutions (i.e. data feeds serving market data platforms) from the vendors, would be prepared to take the technology risk, and would be able to integrate the new direct feed into their systems. Smaller firms, which currently take closed workstation solutions from the data vendors, would continue to prefer these simpler services with lower IT overheads. Direct Delivery would in most cases not be appropriate for these firms. But even some of these smaller firms could be served by simpler Web based offerings from individual exchanges. For example, Deutsche Brse announced in early 2002 that it was developing a web-delivered information product targeted at 20,000 small, domestic savings banks that could not afford Reuters or Bloomberg. Of course, single exchange products are only appropriate for firms that are primarily interested in just one exchange. Figure 5: The Vendor Squeeze  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/murphy5.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Given these changes, we would expect to see the role of data vendors squeezed into serving small firms with an interest in data from multiple exchanges. How serious would this be for the vendors? They would lose much of the USD5bn revenue that they get for exchange-sourced information products. Let It Be Exchanges are not grasping the opportunity Given the opportunity, you would expect to see exchanges rushing to agree a standard data delivery format, and to form an alliance with a global network provider for distribution of this data. The reality is far less dramatic. A few exchanges have made small moves towards a Direct Delivery model, but as independent initiatives, so losing much of the power of the model. Deutsche Brse is one of the most advanced exchanges in its thinking on information products. In February 2002, it announced an intention to double information product revenues. Central to these plans is the Consolidated Exchange Feed (CEF), which integrates data from the Xetra cash trading platform and from the Eurex derivatives market. CEF is designed to allow the flexible integration of additional data sources and, most significantly, supports direct connections by end users and the administration of those connections. CEF will be the basis of the Web-delivered product mentioned earlier, which is designed to support 20,000 small, price sensitive customers directly from the exchange. Other exchanges offer products direct to their customers over the Internet. Easdaqlive, a browser-based market data system now owned by Nasdaq Europe, uses Caplin's Real-Time Transfer Protocol to display data from Nasdaq Europe and from 15 other stock exchanges and other sources. NYSE, Nasdaq and the International Petroleum Exchange have similar Internet-based products. The CME described their Internet delivered product, launched in February 2002, as a response to customers demanding to be able to purchase real-time quotes directly from the exchange. They now offer real-time streaming quotes by logging on the CME Web site where a user can register and purchase various quote packages. But even those exchanges making small moves towards a Direct Delivery model claim they have no interest in supplanting the vendors in their role as primary distributors and administrators for information products. They see the data vendors as their partners in the business of distributing data. The exchanges are experts in running a market, whilst the vendors are experts in distribution and administration of information products. Why aren't exchanges jumping at this opportunity? In preparing for this article, the largest exchanges across the world were polled for their views on selling their data direct. The following quotes are representative of what they said: "We don't have a marketing department. Our market data department is just two guys." -- UK exchange. "We're not a technology company. We cannot develop and support feeds." -- UK exchange. "We are in the business of bulk data dissemination. We cannot administer thousands of individual customers." -- European exchange. "We provide raw data. Quote vendors add value to the data." -- European exchange. "Customers want multiple exchanges, not just us." -- European exchange. "Clients don't want direct delivery." -- European exchange. "Exchange demutulisation will make it hard for exchanges to agree a standard." -- UK exchange. "We cannot provide data direct to most of our customers because the volume of data is too large. We need data vendors to filter the data." -- US exchange. In the remaining sections we explore these objections, and the possible objections of the end user firms. With A Little Help From My Friends Exchanges must collaborate on data standards For the Direct Delivery vision to become reality, exchanges must publish their data in a standard format. Although exchanges are in many cases direct competitors, this is not a reason to avoid working together on standards, because a standard format will help them all. The nature of the format matters less than the fact that it is a standard. With the fanfare surrounding XML, there is much more energy behind standards initiatives these days. Two initiatives in particular may offer a way forward. The first is the Market Data Definition Language (MDDL). MDDL is a variant of XML, describing standard formats and definitions for market data. MDDL is being driven by the data vendors (Reuters, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, S&P Comstock and Sungard) and the major buy-side and sell-side user firms. Interestingly, only two exchanges -- NYSE and Nasdaq -- are actively involved in the organisation. The MDDL mission statement explains that, although MDDL has been designed initially for snapshot and time series applications, it can be extended to historical, streaming and interpretative and vendor-specific data models. MDDL also addresses the integration of feeds. Quoting from the mission statement: "From the user perspective, the goal of MDDL is to enable users to integrate data from multiple sources by standardising both the input feeds used for data warehousing (i.e. define what's being provided by vendors) and the output methods by which client applications request the data (i.e. ensure compatibility on how to get data in and out of applications)." Although this does not mention integrating data from exchanges, one could observe that this is not different in principle to integrating multiple vendor feeds. The second initiative is the convergence of two mature and well-adopted messaging formats. FIX was originally designed for order routing and order execution. In 2000, it was extended to support market data, and has since been adopted by NYSE, Euronext and other exchanges for distributing data (admittedly for niche products, rather than their core real-time products). SWIFT supports a range of message formats, and a messaging network, for post-trade messages. In 2001, FIX and SWIFT agreed to converge their respective messaging protocols into ISO 15022 XML, which they anticipate will become the industry standard. Although this broad standard does not yet cover market data, it will clearly exert influence on associated standards. After all, post-trade information, pre-trade information and market data share a great deal of content. It doesn't make sense to define them multiple times. Neither MDDL nor FIX is immediately suitable as a format for exchanges to deliver data direct to their clients. One of the reasons is the size of individual messages. The totality of real-time exchange data is measured in thousands of messages per second, so message compression is critical to keep the cost of telecommunications between user firms and the exchanges within reasonable bounds. Neither MDDL nor FIX is designed for telecommunications efficiency. The good news is that MDDL is very compressible -- down to 10% of its size, according to trials at one user firm. It is entirely possible that an alternative, as yet unimagined format could be used for data distribution -- something along the lines of the highly compressed and reliable proprietary protocols used by the data vendors. This would not necessarily stop the use of MDDL within the user firms. Firms would need to create a mapping table to translate the contents of the Direct Delivery feed into MDDL and input into their applications. If exchanges published directly in MDDL, this translation would not be necessary. In summary, the need to create and agree a standard format for exchange data should not prevent the creation of the Direct Delivery vision. Standards are coming anyway. Across The Universe A data distribution network is more than a wire Bernie Weinstein, CEO of data vendor ILX, says that "those who believe that vendors can be disintermediated show an ignorance of the rules of business. There's a reason why data distribution evolved as it did. The exchanges grow trees, we're making furniture". When he talks about the rules of business, he is referring to two economies of scale that the vendors provide: network services and administration. Quote vendors rightly protest that there is more to distributing data than just pushing it down a wire. Vendors provide reliability (by running various content checks on the data in real time), entitlement management (by ensuring that only authorised customers receive data), fast request and recovery (by providing intermediate caches), and, most importantly, speed of distribution, where milliseconds really matter. Most data vendors also offer a 'by interest' service, where the end user only receives data that has been explicitly requested, thereby minimising telecommunications costs. A vanilla IP network would offer none of these. These capabilities would need to be layered on top of the network -- so the IP network would provide connectivity, with someone else providing the value added services. Would the exchanges or the network suppliers develop these network services and pay for their deployment? Either way, they would be getting into a business they don't understand and probably cannot afford: the data vending business. A further problem is the administration of thousands of end users. The most common reason given by exchanges for not wanting to sell data direct to end users is that they could not manage the administrative burden. They see the data vendors' main role as being administrative: entitling users, collecting fees and managing contracts. Don't Let Me Down End user firms are driven by aversion to risk The benefits to end user firms of a Direct Delivery model can be summarised under three headings: Cost: data should be cheaper if the data vendor mark-up is avoided Speed: data should arrive faster if it avoids the vendor processing systems Faithfulness: data should be untouched by vendor systems. The cost benefit to exchanges is partially offset by the additional cost of managing multiple feeds from exchanges, rather than a single consolidated feed from the vendors. This is not entirely a technical issue; non-technical costs include arranging contractual terms, payment of fees, and management of entitlements. In fact, all of the administrative concerns of the exchanges -- of having to maintain contractual and billing relationships with multiple parties -- are mirrored by the end user firms. The largest user firms already take direct feeds from exchanges, and go to the trouble of managing the integration of feeds and managing the necessary paperwork. They do this to get fast, faithful data. These firms almost always take one or more vendor feeds too. This is because, for some users and applications, they need the additional data in the feeds: news, analytics, historic data, broker research, and value added fields such as intraday high and low prices. They also value the quality checks that the vendors apply, although they deliberately avoid these checks when choosing a direct feed. Even the exchanges themselves need vendor feeds. For example, 80% of the NYSE floor use ILX data rather than NYSE's own data. Under the Direct Delivery model, a further management cost should not be forgotten: fault management. Data vendors own the collection, validation and distribution of data through to their clients' sites. They often own the workstation software too. Any perceived problems with the data can be reported to the vendor, who will take ownership of the problem even if its cause is outside its walls. The end user does not need to establish in which organisation the fault lies (e.g. in the original exchange data, in the collection and distribution systems, on the workstation software) before it can be reported. Contrast this with the Direct Delivery model, where the multiple parties involved in the data delivery chain could pass the buck between each other over a reported fault. This is reminiscent of a recent wonderful IBM advertisement, in which a hassled female IT director is chairing a meeting about a business-critical fault that has hit her company. She asks around the table what the problem is. The database supplier blames the hardware supplier, the hardware supplier blames the network supplier and so on. She then asks: "Who is responsible for making all these systems work together?". A long silence ensues, followed by one of the assembled techies suggesting: "That would be you". This is the situation that today's finance sector IT manager strives to avoid. Perhaps the strongest argument of all against user firms adopting Direct Delivery is the issue of risk. Consider the music company EMI's thinking on the distribution of tapes and CDs to their outlets. Distribution is clearly not a core competence of EMI. They know about music, publishing, rights management and intellectual property. They are not experts in lorries and warehouses. However, after much consideration, EMI decided not to outsource their distribution operation. Why not? Because they would save 1% of costs but risk 100% of revenues. Devin Wenig of Reuters echoed these points in a recent article in the Financial Times. In describing the threat to Reuters from the Internet, he commented: "All applications are mission critical, and it is a very demanding client base. They can't afford to experiment with unproven technology -- it has to work, and it has to fit the business need." The Long And Winding Road Change may come slowly Given these conflicting thoughts, what is actually likely to happen? The two tiers of delivery that we see today -- multiple proprietary feeds from the exchanges, and intermediated data from the vendors -- will both continue to be widely used. As exchanges adopt standards, the multiple proprietary feeds could merge into a single, standard Direct Delivery feed, and the largest user firms currently taking intermediated data could move to Direct Delivery. This feed could replace or complement their current vendor feed. Smaller, less IT-capable firms would not be able to take the Direct Delivery feed and would instead continue to take a vendor feed. How will these changes actually happen? They could occur through exchanges strategic actions, working together on data standards and allying with network providers for delivery. They could occur as exchanges and their software suppliers consolidate, leading naturally to fewer and fewer different messaging formats and distribution networks. Or they could happen by accident: the problems that the exchanges must overcome to deliver their data direct may be addressed by the IT industry in another domain -- e.g. a network for supply chain automation -- and then the exchanges may discover this network suits them perfectly. In the words of a strategist at one of the data vendors: "This is how things happen. It is classic IT accident that could allow exchanges to change their business model. And when they can change, and the economic benefits are clear, they will change." An alternative vision of the future is offered by the same strategist. Vendors are paid to do things that are perceived to be difficult. What if these things start to look easy, because they are in part provided by off-the-shelf packages or pre-packaged services. Even if competition does not bring prices down, end user firms will be less prepared to pay a premium for the services simply because they look easy. According to the strategist: "If the end user pays say USD900 pcm, and knows the exchange is getting USD50, he will wonder where is the remaining USD850 is going. It's going on pure IT services that are valuable but not that difficult. It could be difficult for someone else to do them, so competition doesn't necessarily bring prices down, but this is more to do with the entrenched position of data vendors rather than their competency". So in this vision the combined pricing pressure of user firms will reduce data vendors revenues, but not to the advantage of exchanges. Either way, the disappointing conclusion is that the opportunities for revenue growth are not as promising as may first have appeared. Though some growth may be possible, it will not be achieved without addressing the challenges of providing a reliable and robust distribution network, and developing entitlement and administration systems suitable for managing thousands of direct customers. And even then, direct delivery will not suit all customers. Is there any precedent for the owners of content to take control of distribution of their assets from an incumbent intermediary? The television sports rights industry offers an interesting parallel. Historically, the owners of sports rights, for example the UK's football Premier League, have sold their rights wholesale to intermediaries who manage distribution, entitlement, subscription and customer service. In the case of football in the UK, the intermediaries are satellite and cable TV networks. This year the Premier League is reported to be considering launching its own TV channel in a bid to shore up the value of the television rights. However, this arrangement would still require one of the pay TV networks to carry the channel, and to administer it. In the words of one observer, as reported by the Financial Times, "Content is king, but distribution is King Kong". We started by asking whether exchange executives should be uttering expletives in response to the revelation that the data vendors are capturing most of the value from the exchanges' real-time data. Our conclusion is that data vendors largely deserve their cut for the services they provide. However, with changes to technology, the emergence of standards, the consolidation of exchanges and suppliers and the strategic actions of the individual exchanges, we may see this cut reduce over time. A realistic target for exchanges could be to increase information product revenues by 50%. By coincidence, 50% is the percentage of fathers who are too busy to spend quality time with their families. I'm off to see mine. Goodnight. Andy Murphy is a consultant at PA Consulting Group, based in London. He welcomes any questions or comments about this article. Please direct them to  HYPERLINK "mailto:andrew.murphy@pa-consulting.com" andrew.murphy@pa-consulting.com. The role for independent equity research Dr Shandi Modi Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, IDEAglobal When assessing concerns over the objectivity of financial market research, and equity research in particular, one is invariably drawn to the Internet revolution and the proliferation of online trading since 1995 -- a revolution which created a whole new community of investors, and a platform through which to service that community with institutional quality research. With retail investors (as well as institutional investors), ultimately suffering sharp balance sheet deterioration in 2000/2001, the subject of biased research is now very much an issue for Main Street, and indeed Congress. This article attempts to identify some of the key factors that compromise objective research, and assesses the role for independent research going forward. Before turning our attention to the ethical challenges faced by sell-side research analysts, it is worth pausing to examine the role of research in the global and, in particular, the US economy. At its best, quality equity research provides a crucial conduit for the efficient allocation of capital. It has, no doubt, played its part in the surge in business investment, the technological advancement and the productivity improvement seen in the US economy since 1995. As Congressman Richard Baker, Chairman House Subcommittee on Capital Markets, points out, America does not have a choice in deciding whether to trust Wall Street again -- "We must", he says. However, Baker cuts to the nub of the issue when he outlines that, "the foundation of the free-market system is the free-flow of straight-forward, unbiased information". This sounds simple enough in theory. What prevents this happening in practice? Without doubt, the Internet transformed the equity market landscape from 1995, sparking a surge in online trading, and of course access to/awareness of investment bank research, previously restricted to Wall Street and its institutional client base. Prior to 1995, who would have believed that working families with USD60,000 incomes and a net worth of less than USD50,000 would be making 800,000 equity trades a day? However, it is that very 'democratisation' of the trading process that has drawn to centre-stage the integrity of Wall Street research. The concern of all parties involved revolves around the seemingly unending stream of 'Buy' recommendations. We've all seen statistics such as those of 2000, where less than 1% of brokerage house recommendations were 'sell' or 'strong sell'. Of course, to some degree, the growing pains of online trading dictate that the individual investor cope with Wall Street's code of 'Strong Buy', 'Buy', and 'Accumulate'. Investment language however, pales into insignificance as a concern, when compared to the ethical questions faced by analysts remunerated from the investment banking division, or indeed having direct ownership in pre-IPO stock. Before we can convict Wall Street of serving multiple masters, we must first ask ourselves three questions. First, what precipitated the Street's descent to its current condition? Beyond this, in spite of the apparent conflicts, has Wall Street research benefited investors? Finally, what will it take to move Wall Street beyond its modus operandi? "Wall Street, in short, has a credibility problem. Its boosterish ways are coming under renewed attack as individual investors learn the hard way that analysts -- the pundits who talk up stocks in the papers or on TV -- serve many masters as stock pickers, they often act like marketing agents, pushing stocks in which they have a stake, or would like one." US News & World Report, 'Blame The Pundits'. October 9, 2000 Prior to 1975, the securities industry was a landscape dominated by brokers. Wall Street had the Security and Exchange Commission to thank for this business model, with a fixed commission structure dictated by the government. Without price competition, brokers found that one of the keys to draw more business from their book of clients was to generate the best 'ideas'. With a focus on consistent transaction generation, Wall Street had a strong incentive to provide institutions and individuals with insightful research. At commission rates averaging USD0.70 per share, firms could count on being paid for good recommendations, whether the company traded 15,000 or 15 million shares per day. Further, with lower servicing costs, providing recommendations to individual investors carried as strong an economic incentive as providing them to institutions, but with higher, government-mandated commissions. The world changed for Wall Street on May Day, 1975. A Securities and Exchange Commission decree ended the period of fixed commissions after a 5-year phase out period. The 'Shangri-La' made possible by the SEC was no more. With over 60% of their revenues coming from the trading desk prior to May Day, Wall Street moved quickly to realign its interests. Its aim was simple, obvious, and understandable: to continue generating immense profits, in spite of ceding trading revenues to the proliferation of discount brokerages, and in spite of commissions plummeting to USD20 from USD300 per transaction. Wall Street found its redemption in investment banking, which would soon be producing profits previously undreamt of. From 1975 until 2000, net proceeds from offerings underwritten by Wall Street soared from USD42bn to USD2.24tr. The Street's share of this lucrative business came to a spectacular USD7.3bn in fees in 1999 and 2000. Unfortunately, Wall Street quickly found that credible, objective, unbiased research and investment banking relationships mixed like oil and water. It was a rare company that was willing to reward poor ratings with underwriting commissions. Indeed, the SEC has been at pains to point out the conflicts of interest faced by investment bank equity analysts, as follows: The analyst's firm may be underwriting the offering Client companies prefer favourable research reports Positive reports attract new clients Brokerage commissions Analyst compensation Ownership interests in the company The 'Chinese Wall' claimed to exist between research and corporate finance was long ago stormed by the bankers in search of lucrative underwriting relationships. It doesn't take much insight to see the potential conflict in JP Morgan's memo (The London Times, March 21, 2001), explaining that analysts must seek comments from the relevant JP Morgan investment banker, before changing a stock recommendation. This mentality is not isolated to a single firm, as a Morgan Stanley internal memo (Wall Street Journal, July 14, 1992) declares: "Our objective...is to adopt a policy, fully understood by the entire firm, including the Research Department, that we do not make negative or controversial comments about our clients as a matter of sound business practice". Perhaps, however, all this bias is to the benefit of investors. Many investment bankers contend that strong ratings on their universe of clients are warranted, as they take only the strongest companies as clients. Indeed, the Securities Industry Association points out that Wall Street provides coverage of only 2,400 of the 14,500 securities listed and that a selection bias already exists. Further, their relationship to the firm provides them with better information upon which to develop their outlook. Unfortunately, the evidence of recent years points to a rather different conclusion. A study by Michaely and Womack of Dartmouth University published in 1999, examining the early part of the 1990s, titled 'Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations', proves intriguing. The researchers found that: Analysts from firms with underwriting relationships do in fact issue more buy recommendations -- on average 50% more than analysts from other brokerage firms. Stock prices of firms recommended by lead underwriters fall, on average, in the 30 days after a recommendation is issued, while prices of those recommended by non-underwriters rose. Long-run post-recommendation performance of firms that are recommended by their underwriters is significantly worse than the performance of firms recommended by other brokerage houses. The difference in mean and median size-adjusted buy and hold returns between the underwriter and non-underwriter group is more than 50% for a two year period beginning on the IPO day. In the death knell to the underwriting strength argument -- "The mean long-run return of buy recommendations made on non-clients is more positive than those made on clients for 12 out of 14 brokerage firms. In other words, it is not the difference in the investment banks' ability to analyze firms that drives our results, but a bias directly related to whether the recommending broker is the underwriter of the IPO". The evidence against analyst recommendations rests not only in academic studies. The web site,  HYPERLINK "http://www.investars.com" \t "_blank" www.investars.com, ranks investment banks by the actual returns investors may have enjoyed had they followed their coverage. The site shows 15 of the 19 largest US brokerage firms producing negative returns, in a period in which the S&P 500 was up 58%. The final question we must ask is whether Wall Street's self-regulatory code will be enough to end the conflicts of interest or whether government intervention is required. At present, it appears the bankers have yet to budge. Despite the precipitous drop of 60% in the Nasdaq average, and over 20% in the S&P 500, investment banks maintain sell ratings on less than 2% of issues under coverage. Even with valuations still at historic highs, the average number of buy recommendations on each Nasdaq 100 stock is near 15, with sells below 1. In mid-2001, 72 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 had no sells. It seems that, despite the painfully apparent lessons of recent history, investment banks have been unwilling to depart from their proven business methods. While many objective and independent analysts have found compelling returns in independence, Wall Street is having trouble distancing its research from banking. In a 2001 speech, Acting SEC Chairman Laura Unger reported that in "a recent survey of 300 CFOs, one out of five CFOs acknowledged that they have withheld business from brokerage firms whose analysts issued unfavorable research on the company". As long as CFOs continue to pull underwriting business from firms that give unfavourable reviews of their companies, investment banks have no choice but to continue utilising research as quasi-promotional material. Given the choice, no one cuts their own pay cheque. Indeed, the Security Industry Association's 'Best Practices For Research' guide, released two days prior to Congressional hearings on analyst bias, did not appear to make a material impression on Congressman Baker, and raises concerns as to whether Wall Street's ethical shake-up can be left in the hands of a self-regulatory body. Perhaps the most severe measure would be a government mandated separation of investment banking from research and trading operations. By forcing Wall Street to put a price tag on its research, either in the form of soft or hard dollars, truly independent research firms would be on the same level as their investment banking counterparts. Free markets being what they are, the ideal solution might seem unlikely. But the world is different now from what it was a year or two ago. The 1990s bull market dramatically increased individual investor participation rates. Enormous apparent wealth creation was followed more recently by dramatic and painful wealth diminution, which was not, as in the past, limited to a small section of the populace. The wealth increase and subsequent loss has been felt directly by a broad spectrum of society. The breadth and depth of these losses bring issues of potential conflicts 'within the club' to a higher political level than ever before. Regulation of capital markets is today at a watershed. Over the last decade, the players have, consciously or unconsciously, conspired to project a positive face to their businesses at all costs. Corporate managements, focused on stock option profits, determined to exceed earnings forecasts. Research analysts, pressured to support underwriting initiatives, promoted corporate clients without exception. Indeed, auditors, focusing on lucrative consulting opportunities, bent over backwards to accommodate the schemes of large corporate clients. The Enron fiasco appears to be the latest manifestation of this problem. To take a more constructive viewpoint, we can but hope that such crises create opportunities for fundamental improvements in the way 'things have always been done'. Clearly, the fiduciary obligations of auditors must be affirmed. If the consulting business suffers, so be it. The fiduciary obligations of management must be affirmed. If there must be more than USD100bn of earnings restatements, so be it. And perhaps for the first time, the fiduciary obligations of ratings agencies and research analysts will be affirmed and codified. The dictionary defines research as 'the hunt for facts or truth'. Research analysts, regardless of where they work, must be seen as having an obligation to disclose material findings of fact, whether positive or negative for the corporate relationship. If they seek to be influential, they must assume accountability for the thoroughness and objectivity of their analysis. They too have an obligation to deliver 'full, true and plain disclosure' to their investing clients. If they fail to seize voluntarily this opportunity to elevate the integrity of their profession, the investing public, and their elected representatives, may thrust it upon them. And so they should. Investor impatience with biased, self-serving research is at breaking point. The growing awareness is that investment research that is not independent, is not research. Offshore financial centres -- recent developments Elias Neocleous Andreas Neocleous & Co "Every man is entitled if he can to arrange his affairs so that the tax attaching under the appropriate Acts is less than it otherwise would be. If he succeedshe cannot be compelled to pay an increased tax." Lord Tomlin in IRC v. Duke of Westminster (1936) AC 1 "There is nothing sinister in so arranging one's affairs as to keep taxes as low as possible. Everybody does so, rich or poor; and all do right, for nobody owes any public duty to pay more than the law demands; taxes are enforced exactions, not voluntary contributions." Judge Learned Hand, 1947 Background The last half of the 20th century saw significant developments in the world financial system. Restrictions on trade and capital flows were relaxed, technology made rapid advances and the different parts of the global economy became more closely linked. Offshore financial centres (OFCs) benefited greatly from these events and from the increased cooperation and competition that followed, and some became major centres of economic activity for multinational enterprises. A British report in 1998 estimated that the amount invested offshore then exceeded USD6tr, more than the GDP of every nation except the USA. What made OFCs so attractive? The main reason was their tax advantages, both for businesses and high net worth individuals, but they also offered confidentiality and political stability for financial activities, shielded from unwelcome regulation by geography and/or legislation. In addition, many of them offer the pleasant prospect of sun-kissed islands with beaches shaded by palm trees and washed by azure seas. Just as attractive and successful human beings often become targets of criticism and complaint (usually based on jealousy!), so OFCs found themselves under attack. They were charged with introducing practices designed to encourage non-compliance with the tax laws of other countries. More specifically, they were accused of allowing themselves to be used to hide drug money, for tax fraud, for the circumvention of foreign inheritance laws and for money laundering and the promotion of corruption in general, with the implied assumption that all the money they held came there illegally. The OECD reports In 1998 the OECD issued its report entitled Harmful Tax Competition: An Emerging Global Issue. It focused on geographically mobile activities such as financial and other services, it identified factors that could undermine the integrity and fairness of tax systems and it listed the following four criteria to determine the harmful aspects of a particular jurisdiction and identify it as a so-called tax haven: No, or nominal, taxes and no, or low, effective tax rates Lack of effective exchange of information Lack of transparency No substantial activities and/or ring fencing. The concern of the OECD with tax competition might not have been entirely unconnected with the preoccupation of the EU with tax harmonisation. But whereas the EU, as a common market, needs a common rate of tax with only minor local variations, there was no justification for the OECD to use harmonisation as a synonym for uniformity and try to impose such uniformity on the whole world. Two of the then 29 member countries of the OECD abstained from the 1998 report -- Luxembourg and Switzerland. Two countries small in size and population but vast in terms of financial activity and influence. In 1996 Luxembourg accounted for more than half the world's offshore mutual funds. The range and depth of the financial deposits in Swiss banks is legendary, as is the secrecy that surrounds them. Two years later, a change could be detected in the OECD's progress report in 2000 entitled Towards Global Tax Cooperation: Progress in Identifying and Eliminating Harmful Tax Practices. It identified 47 potentially harmful preferential tax regimes in OECD member countries and listed 35 jurisdictions found to meet the tax haven criteria, but it also proposed a process whereby tax havens could commit themselves to the elimination of harmful tax practices. Comparison of the titles of the 1998 and 2000 reports confirms that the emphasis had moved from harmful competition to harmful practice. Before the 2000 report was issued, six jurisdictions -- Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, Malta, Mauritius and San Marino -- had committed themselves to the elimination of any harmful tax practices by the end of 2005. After the report was issued, five more jurisdictions -- Aruba, Bahrain, Isle of Man, Netherlands Antilles and Seychelles -- made similar commitments, to make a total of 11 so-called 'committed jurisdictions'. Since the 2000 report several multilateral discussions have taken place. There was a joint OECD-Commonwealth meeting in Barbados in January 2001; a Pacific region conference in Tokyo and a gathering of jurisdictions from Europe, the Middle East and OECD member countries in Paris in February 2001; and a joint OECD-Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Fiji in April 2001. It seems that these discussions, and some dialogues between OECD members and the tax haven jurisdictions, led to a better understanding by the OECD of the concerns of those jurisdictions about the commitment process and participation in the harmful tax practices work. In 2001 the OECD issued another progress report, entitled The OECD's Project on Harmful Tax Practices, in which it stated (paragraph 26): "Some member countries, as well as some tax havens, have expressed concerns regarding the application of the no substantial activities criterion, the application of a framework of coordinated defensive measures to tax havens as of 31 July 2001 and the time frame for developing implementation plans." The report went on to say that, in the light of the discussions with the jurisdictions, the OECD's Committee on Fiscal Affairs had concluded that the no, or nominal, taxes and no, or low, effective tax substantial activities and ring fencing criteria should no longer be used (paragraph 27), and that commitments would now be sought only in relation to the effective exchange of information and transparency criteria, to determine whether or not a jurisdiction is considered to be an uncooperative tax haven (paragraph 28). It also said that the 'committed jurisdictions' could review their commitments in respect of the no substantial activities criterion (paragraph 29). In paragraphs 32 and 33 the Committee said that it "recognises that the potential application of a framework of coordinated defensive measures to tax havens prior to their potential application to OECD member countries raises concerns regarding a level playing field between member countries and tax havens" and "has decided that the time for making commitments will be extended to 28 February 2002". Dissension The use of the phrase 'level playing field' lifted the lid on the discontent that has been seething for some time beneath the apparently tranquil surface of the operations of the OECD steamroller. Belgium and Portugal abstained from the 2001 report. Luxembourg recalled its abstention from the 1998 report which also applied to the 2001 report, regretting that the latter was further away from the goal of combating harmful tax competition with respect to the location of economic activities. Switzerland noted that its 1998 abstention applied to any follow-up work done since 1998. As well as the four abstentions out of its current membership of 30, the OECD had earlier had to contend with the statement made by Paul O'Neill, the US Treasury Secretary, on May 10, 2001. Mr O'Neill said: "I share many of the serious concerns that have been expressed recently about the direction of the OECD initiative. I am troubled by the underlying premise that low tax rates are somehow suspect and by the notion that any country, or group of countries, should interfere in any other country's decision about how to structure its own tax system. I am also concerned about the potentially unfair treatment of some non-OECD countries. The United States does not support efforts to dictate to any country what its own tax rates or tax system should be, and will not participate in any initiative to harmonise world tax systems. The United States simply has no interest in stifling the competition that forces governments -- like businesses -- to create efficiencies". Faced with such an unequivocal declaration of opposition from the US, any programme of sanctions to try to enforce harmonisation of tax systems throughout the world would surely have been doomed from the start. The volte-face by the OECD is confirmed by the press notice accompanying the 2001 report which said that the OECD "seeks to encourage an environment in which free and fair tax competition can take place in order to assist in achieving its overall aims to foster economic growth and development worldwide". Far from being a global issue, emerging or otherwise, there is a widely held view -- obviously shared by the United States -- that tax competition is not merely harmless but is positively beneficial. There is a strong argument that it has made a notable contribution to the substantial wealth created during the last half century and should be enabled, indeed encouraged, to continue. The challenge of the 21st century must be to share wealth more equitably among all the nations of the world, particularly in the taxation of e-commerce. The 2000 and 2001 progress reports from the OECD are evidence of some back-pedalling and of a progressive and desirable shift away from an overbearing and dictatorial approach in favour of more openness and tolerance towards the so-called tax havens, working cooperatively with them and emphasising evolutionary change through dialogue and consen-sus. The removal of the no, or low, tax and tax rate and the no substantial activities and ring fencing criterion and the more relaxed timetables for the making of commitments and the development of plans to implement those commitments must be welcomed, but there are still dangers. In April 2002 the OECD announced a new 'blacklist' of seven small jurisdictions deemed by its Committee on Fiscal Affairs to be uncooperative tax havens. In his statement which accompanied the announcement, the Chairman of the Committee said that the OECD had gone a long way towards achieving a level playing field, but some commentators regard the announcement as a non-event. They think that it demonstrates a continuing imperialist and hypocritical attitude on the part of the OECD, in not applying the same rules for transparency and information exchange to developed nations, and they believe that it is very important to defeat the EUSavings Tax Directive as a cartel. Collection of tax-relevant information Likewise dangers remain in the desire of the OECD to collect tax-relevant information, in which objective the OECD is supported, even outrun, by the United States. In his statement of May 10, 2001 Mr O'Neill also referred to "the core element that is our common goal: the need for countries to be able to obtain specific information from other countries upon request in order to prevent the illegal evasion of their tax laws by the dishonest few". This need for information has been reinforced by the events of September 11, 2001 and the consequent natural desire of the United States to protect itself from a more uncertain environment, although that desire in turn engenders the risk of a less level playing field, less competition and more intervention. The US Patriot Act 2001, which became law on October 26, 2001, subjects to special scrutiny foreign jurisdictions, financial institutions and international transactions that provide opportunities for criminal abuse, and the Secretary of the Treasury is empowered to take special measures against them if they are a primary money laundering concern. The focus of the legislation, on the identification of foreign account holders and the control of correspondent banking, implies that money laundering is essentially a foreign problem and seems to presume that the fault lies with OFCs. Certain OFCs have already taken significant steps to remedy any shortcomings; the following are examples: The Netherlands Antilles are abolishing their offshore regime and replacing it with a new fiscal framework that will facilitate the expansion of tax treaties. The Bahamas enacted much supervisory legislation in 2000. It has been given Qualified Jurisdiction status by the US with whom it entered into a tax information agreement in January 2002. It has been removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) list and it has met the Financial Stability Forum requirements. The Cayman Islands concluded a tax information agreement with the US in November 2001 as part of its obligations as a 'committed jurisdiction'. As part of its preparations for membership of the EU, Cyprus has published a package of radical tax reforms that is being considered by the House of Representatives. It includes the abolition of the preferential tax treatment of international business companies and the imposition of a uniform 10% corporate tax rate for all companies, whether local or international. Its strategic position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa has always given Cyprus an important role as a regional and international business and financial centre. In 1999 foreign exchange earnings from international business activities amounted to CYP234m or 4.7% of GDP. Cyprus is determined to maintain and enhance its international business role and is playing a full part in all the efforts to eliminate harmful tax practices. It has kept records of beneficial ownership for some time, it was one of the first 'committed jurisdictions', and it was not on the FATF blacklist. The renegotiation of all its tax treaties by the US to include tax information agreements is likely to continue. The FATF has already expanded its mission beyond money laundering, and will now also focus its energy and expertise on the worldwide effort to combat terrorist financing. How can the collection of tax-relevant information be reconciled with the individual and corporate right to privacy and confidentiality? Nowadays it is generally accepted that this right must be curtailed if fraud and crime are to be effectively detected and deterred, if not prevented. But if information must be collected, a balance must be struck and, perhaps more importantly, some method needs to be found to ensure that the recipient of the information can be trusted with it and that it is not misused and does not fall into the wrong hands. The cry uttered by Juvenal in his Satires, 'Sed quis custodiet ipsos custodes?'*, should be an ever-present warning. After all, are not many of the OECD member countries tax havens themselves? As recently as January 2002 the World Trade Organisation (WTO) found that massive export tax breaks for companies like General Electric, Boeing and Microsoft amounted to illegal export subsidies, and in March the USannounced tariffs on steel imports. This has produced a predictable, retaliatory, protectionist response from the EU, to impose trade sanctions on such varied products as fruit, T-shirts, steel, guns and billiard tables. It is also questionable whether some of the EU tax regimes comply fully with WTO rules. Surely export tax breaks, subsidies and tariffs can be even more harmful than low direct taxes and special treatment of international business companies? Conclusion The quotations at the head of this article are intended to be a reminder that, whereas evasion of tax remains illegal, as do all the operations associated with evasion, avoidance of tax is, and always has been, an entirely lawful activity. OFCs provide individuals and companies with opportunities lawfully to avoid or postpone the payment of taxes, as well as a tax-neutral forum for residents of different countries to do business together. They are also a source of funds for banks and investment houses operating in major financial centres. OFCs that are well-regulated and actively opposed to all forms of money laundering, terrorist financing and tax evasion should be allowed, indeed encouraged, to operate in a climate of open competition. It is time for the OECD and EU pots to stop calling the OFC kettles black or, to use another proverb, for those in the OECD and EU glasshouses to stop throwing stones. The only sensible and constructive way forward is for all jurisdictions, large and small, OECD members or not, to cooperate fully on equal terms and by means of absolute transparency and effective exchange of information to eliminate harmful tax practices, with a view to achieving a genuinely level playing field for all on which to transact honest business. Elias Neocleous is a partner of Andreas Neocleous & Co, Advocates and Legal Consultants in Limassol, Cyprus. Can you beat the markets? Models, random walks and the performance of fundmanagers Peter Bennett If you can look into the seeds of time And say which grain will grow and which will not, Speak then to me Macbeth A reader of charts It was a reader of charts who accurately forecast the Great Market Crash of 1929[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note1#note1" 1]. Speaking at the Annual National Business Conference on September 5, 1929 Roger Babson observed: "Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific". JK Gailbraith records: "Babson was not a man who inspired confidence as a prophet in the manner of Irving Fisher or the Harvard Economic Society. As an educator, philosopher, theologian, statistician, forecaster and friend of the law of gravity he has sometimes been thought to have spread himself too thin. The methods by which he reached his conclusions were a problem. They involved a hocus pocus of lines and areas on a chart. Intuition and even mysticism played a part. Those who employed rational, objective and scientific methods failed to foretell the crash. In these matters, as so often in our culture, it is far, far better to be wrong in a respectable way than to be right for the wrong reasons. Wall St was not at a loss as what to do about Babson. It promptly and soundly denounced him." The use of charts endures and they are widely used by technical traders to identify and confirm trends in prices. A state-of-the-art trading workstation can be expected to include tools to plot prices and volumes on a tick by tick basis and to overlay moving averages, Bollinger bands, candle stick charts and a host of other artifacts designed to divine signals from apparent noise. Today's market players rely heavily, some would say too heavily, on forecasts based on models. Forecasters devise theoretical and empirical models and use them to price derivatives, to achieve optimal asset allocation, to quantify risk, and to derive trading signals. The Black and Scholes model developed by Fisher, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton is used widely for options pricing, and for the discovery of implied volatility in underlying assets from a knowledge of options market prices. Simple and weighted moving average models along with more sophisticated autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH and GARCH) models are used to estimate volatility from an analysis of price histories. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) finds application in portfolio management to indicate the expected or required rates of return on risky assets. Value at risk (VaR) models are used to measure market risk, to estimate capital requirements and for risk management within firms. ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models are used to find serial correlations in stationary (differenced) time series. The analysis of raw prices is employed in the search for co-integration between time series and arbitrage opportunities. The business of model building and forecasting is big, and occupies the best scientific minds. Mathematics and statistical analysis play a key role, as does an ever broadening church of sciences, notably physics, biology, psychology, games theory and computer science. Babson may have been on the right track after all. Tales of the unexpected Lest we forget that models are just models, abstractions and statistical artifacts that stand to be tested by real world experience and rare events, let us remind ourselves of some spectacular model failures. On October 19, 1987 -- 'Black Monday' -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 508 points, to that date the largest one-day drop in history. The Brady Commission identified the use of portfolio insurance models as a significant factor in the sharp decline in stock prices. The brainchild of Leland and Rubenstein, Portfolio Insurance draws inspiration from the Black and Scholes model to create the idea of a synthetic option. Jacobs[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note2#note2" 2] builds the case for how portfolio insurance and dynamic hedging exacerbated the 1987 crash and points out that dynamic hedging has played a similar role in recent periods of market volatility. The strategy, known as option replication, requires mechanistic selling as stock prices decline and buying as stock prices rise. When a large enough number of investors engage in this type of trend-following 'dynamic hedging', their trading demands can sweep markets along with them, elevating stock prices at some times and causing dramatic price drops at others. Jacobs maintains that dynamic hedging associated with some USD100bn in option-replication strategies caused the US stock market crash in 1987. An often cited and dramatic example of model failure concerns the hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management Company (LTCM). John Meriwether, erstwhile head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers, founded LTCM in 1993. The LTCM partners included the Nobel laureates, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, and former regulator David Mullins.The standing of the partners allowed it to trade with the big names on equal terms. It was able to put on interest rate swaps at the market rate for no initial margin. It could borrow 100% of the value of any top-grade collateral, and with the proceeds buy more securities. These could be posted as collateral for further borrowing. In theory it could leverage itself without limit. In LTCM's first two years of operation it produced 43% and 41% return on equity and had amassed an investment capital of USD7bn. Meriwether is a relative-value trader. Relative value means (in theory) taking little outright market risk, since a long position in one instrument is offset by a short position in a similar instrument or its derivative. It involves betting on small price differences that are expected to converge over time. LTCM, for example, bought Italian government bonds and sold German Bund futures. It played the same arbitrage in the interest-rate swap market, betting that the spread between swap rates and the most liquid treasury bonds would narrow. It became one of the biggest players on the world's futures exchanges. To make 40% return on capital, however, requires big bets. In theory, market risk isn't increased by increasing the stake, provided you stick to liquid instruments and don't get so big that you become the market. Some of the big macro hedge funds had encountered the latter problem and reduced their size by giving money back to their investors. When, in the last quarter of 1997, LTCM returned USD2.7bn to investors, it was assumed to be for the same reason: a prudent reduction in its positions relative to the market. But it seems the positions weren't reduced and the leverage increased. Fatefully, LTCM got into emerging markets, including Russia. One report said Russia was 8% of its book, some USD10bn exposure. On August 17, 1998 Russia declared a moratorium on its ruble and domestic dollar debt. Hot money, already jittery because of the Asian crisis, fled into high quality instruments. Top preference was for the most liquid US and G-10 government bonds. Spreads widened even between on and off-the-run US treasuries. Most of LTCM's bets had been variations on the same theme, convergence between liquid treasuries and more complex instruments that commanded a credit or liquidity premium. Unfortunately convergence turned into dramatic divergence. LTCM's counterparties began to call for more collateral to cover the divergence. On one single day, August 21, 1998, the LTCM portfolio lost USD55m. The New York Fed, on hearing concerns from its constituent banks, decided to take a look at the LTCM portfolio. They were surprised by what they saw. LTCM's total off balance sheet business ran to around one trillion dollars. The off-balance sheet contracts were mostly collateralised. Unfortunately the value of the collateral had taken a dive since the Russian default. LTCM was too big to be allowed to go down. In the event it was bailed out to the tune of some USD3.6bn by a consortium of banks who stood to lose heavily if the edifice collapsed. Despite the presence of Nobel laureates closely identified with option theory, it seems LTCM relied too much on theoretical market-risk models and not enough on stress-testing, gap risk and liquidity risk. There was an assumption that the portfolio was sufficiently diversified across world markets to produce low correlation. But in most markets LTCM was replicating essentially the same credit spread trade. In August and September 1998 credit spreads widened in practically every market at the same time. Markets -- a tough nut to crack Perhaps the most controversial model in financial markets is that formalised by Eugene F Fama. Building on work by Samuelson and others, Fama's Efficient Markets Hypothesis[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note3#note3" 3] (EMH) implies that market prices fully reflect all the information that is available to the players in the market. Future changes in prices can only be the result of 'news', which by definition is unpredictable, so the best forecast of the price on any future date is simply the price today. Put another way the price today is simply yesterday's price plus a random element. Fama's model is built on a body of research that has its roots in the work of the French mathematician, Louis Bachelier.[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note4#note4" 4] In Thorie de la Speculation published in 1900 Bachelier observes: "Past, present and even discounted future events are reflected in market price, but often show no apparent relation to price changescontradictory opinions concerning changes diverge so much that buyers believe in a price increase and sellers believe in a price decreaseit seems that the market, the aggregate of speculators, at a given instant can believe in neither a market rise nor a market fall since, for each quoted price, there are as many buyers as sellersclearly the price considered most likely is the true current price; if the market judged otherwise, it would quote not this price, but another price higher or lower." Bachelier set himself the ambitious goal of postulating a formula which expresses the likelihood of a market fluctuation in a given instant. This led him into deep investigations into probability theory and the dynamics of the random movement of particles in a free space (Brownian motion). The young mathematician came to some surprising conclusions. The probability of a rise in price at a given time is equal to the probability of a fall; the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero. The market is 'a fair game' akin to throwing a coin. Bachelier's work lay buried until discovered by accident in the 1950s when it sparked further research. In terms of the modern theory of stochastics used by Fama and his colleagues, the process implied by Bachelier's fundamental principle is called a martingale. A more restricted form of the theory is called the random walk. The efficient market hypothesis paints a picture where many rational, like minded, profit-maximising agents consume all available information to deduce current prices. These prices clear to produce equilibrium. In the absence of news, future prices fluctuate randomly. That the model is controversial should be no surprise. What the theory implies is that the endeavours of the armies of analysts, proprietary traders and fund managers who attempt to beat the market consensus are futile. Tests for market efficiency The conditions sufficient for market efficiency are zero transaction costs, all information is available at no cost to all participants, and at any given time all agree on a fair value price that clears the market in a given security. In such a market the current price of a security obviously fully reflects all available information. But the above conditions are not descriptive of real markets. Fortunately these conditions are sufficient for market efficiency but not necessary. Empirical tests of EMH must therefore measure to what extent price formation is efficient, given real-world conditions. EMH tests can be divided into three categories; weak, semi-strong and strong according to which category of information is under the spotlight. The corresponding information categories are historic prices or returns, publicly available information such as company announcements, stock splits and so forth, and finally non-public or proprietary information of a kind that might be held, for instance, by a fund manager. Weak form tests look for serial correlations in stock market returns. If successive price movements are random and there is little or no serial correlation in price histories, this will indicate market efficiency. A substantial body of work has indicated this to be the case, so supporting EMH. For example see Fama[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note5#note5" 5], Kendall[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note6#note6" 6], Granger and Morgenstern[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note7#note7" 7], and Godfrey, Granger and Morgenstern[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note8#note8" 8]. A weak form experiment carried out by Alexander[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note9#note9" 9] is instructive. It involves testing a simple mechanical trading system characterised as follows: If the price of a security moves up at least y%, buy and hold the security until its price moves down at least y% from the subsequent high, at which time sell and simultaneously go short. The short position is maintained until the price rises at least y% above a subsequent low, at which time one covers the short position and buys. Moves less than y% in either direction are ignored. Such a system is called a y% filter. After extensive tests using daily data on price indices from 1897 to 1959 and filter parameters from 1 to 50%, in his final paper Alexander concludes: "In fact, at this point I should advise any reader who is interested only in practical results, and who is not a floor trader and so must pay commissions, to turn to other sources on how to beat buy and hold." The results indicate very small filter parameters (1%) do yield very small possible returns with high frequency data but in the Alexander experiment these are eclipsed by trading costs. Trading costs are the bane of the active trader and set performance hurdles for technical trading systems. Bernstein[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note10#note10" 10] points out that if stock prices are random and independent of each other their changes over time should look like a normal distribution or bell curve (the central limit theorem). He illustrates this by charting monthly, quarterly and annual percentage changes in S&P 500 prices from 1926 through to 1995. The resulting charts do approximate to normal distributions, allowing for the overall upward trend over this period. Semi-strong tests also support EMH. For instance an experiment to measure the impact on prices of information implicit in stock splits by Fama, Fisher, Jensen and Roll[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note11#note11" 11] indicates that the market makes unbiased forecasts of the implication of stock splits, and these forecasts are fully reflected in prices by the end of the split month. The most surprising confirmation of EMH comes in strong form tests involving fund management performance. Institutional funds dominate investment activity. At the time of writing there is some USD7tr under management in US funds alone (Investment Company Institute). Institutional fund managers spend vast sums on research and could be expected to have an information edge. Does this show up in performance that is above the norm? A landmark experiment by Jensen[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note12#note12" 12] sets out to determine this on the basis of a norm which represents the results of an investment policy based on the assumption that prices fully reflect all available information. Using the Sharpe Lintner model of equilibrium expected returns, Jensen develops a norm represented by a 'market line' which relates returns to risk in a linear manner. Performance above the line is superior and below inferior. He uses this risk--return framework to evaluate the performance of 115 mutual funds over the ten year period of 1955-64. In terms of net returns to investors Jenson finds that in 89 out of the 115 cases the funds risk--return combination is below the market line and the average over all funds of the deviations on ten year returns from the market line is -14.6%. Jensen concludes: "Although these results certainly do not imply that the strong form of the martingale hypothesis holds for all investors and for all time, they provide strong evidence in support of that hypothesis. One must realise that these analysts are extremely well endowed. Moreover they operate in securities markets everyday and have wide ranging contacts and associations in both business and financial communities. Thus, the fact that they are apparently unable to forecast returns accurately enough to recover their research and transaction costs is a striking piece of evidence in favour of the strong form of the martingale hypothesis." A later comprehensive study by Carhart[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note13#note13" 13] (1997), which uses a database that includes all dead funds to compensate for survivor bias*, underpins Jensen's findings. In comparing active vs. passive trading styles Shefrin[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note14#note14" 14] observes: "Vanguard offers an index fund, the 500 Index Portfolio that tracks the S&P 500. Vanguard reports that in 20 years between1977-1997, the 500 Index Fund outperformed more than 83% of Mutual Funds. During 1997 the 500 Index Fund actually beat most, over 90% of the diversified US equity mutual funds. For the year, S&P returned 32.61% in comparison to the 24.36% return on the average equity mutual fund." The evidence of mutual fund performance tends to support EMH and lends support to passive rather than active management styles. A large body of evidence thus indicates that stock markets are efficient and hard to forecast. However the evidence is not all one-way. Evidence of market inefficiencies In the book A Non Random Walk Down Wall St, Lo and Mackinlay[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note15#note15" 15] report significant positive serial correlation in weekly and monthly samples of the Centre for Research in Securities Prices (CRSP) equal weighted returns index taken from September 1962 to December 1985. Interestingly they find tests on more recent data (1986-1995) reveal that the correlation has disappeared. They observe that several Wall Street firms have been known to have been engaged in 'statistical' arbitrage during the intervening period based on the patterns they had uncovered in their earlier research. They conclude that this provides a plausible explanation of the trend towards randomness in more recent data. Ironically, this is a nice argument in favour of EMH. There is evidence of serial correlation in high frequency tick by tick data that could be the basis of successful trading systems. For example see Olsen[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note16#note16" 16] and Lequeux.[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note17#note17" 17] Intuitively this makes sense because at this resolution we are seeing the wheels and cogs of the market's microstructure at work. Cochrane[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note18#note18" 18] (1999) observes: "Whilst daily, weekly and monthly stock returns are still close to unpredictable, and technical systems for predicting such movements are still close to useless, variables including the dividend/price ratio and term premium can predict substantial stock return variation over business-cycle and longer horizon." He points to an example where 'low' prices relative to dividends, book value, earnings, sales and other divisors predict higher subsequent returns. Whilst the effect is very small over the short term it can be forecast over a five-year period. This effect inspires a reversal trading strategy based on statistical evidence that winners become losers and losers become winners over the long term. Schiller[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note19#note19" 19] finds it difficult to reconcile EMH with the dramatically increasing disparity between stock market prices and dividends in the run up to the turn of the millennium. Schiller's observations, published just before the March 2000 sell-off, were prescient. One graph reproduced here is quite striking. It illustrates the patterns of inflation-adjusted stock prices and dividend present value of stocks in the S&P composite index from 1871 through to 2000. Whilst dividends follow a smooth and modestly up-trending line, prices perform like a roller coaster. They repeatedly surge upwards, often over a sustained period of years, to a point where they seem to lose any rational relationship with fundamentals. Then they crash. Schiller asks how such behaviour can be reconciled with an efficient market and rational investors. He observes: "Stock prices appear to be too volatile to be considered to be in accord with efficient markets. If stock prices are supposed to be an optimal predictor of dividend present value, then they should not jump around erratically when the true fundamental value is growing along a smooth trendexcess volatility due to speculative bubbles is probably just one of the factors that drive speculative markets, and the prominence of this factor varies across markets over time."  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/Bennett.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Inflation adjusted stock prices and dividend present value of stocks in the S&P composite index from 1871 through to 2000. No prizes for guessing what happened next -- as of February 2002 the S&P 500 stands at 1089. Bubbles, greed and fear It is perhaps too much to expect a model that has its origins in equilibrium and rational agents to cope with the dynamics of market bubbles. Bubbles are certainly persistent and recurring phenomena. The great bubbles, Tulip Mania, the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, the Great Crash of 1929 and now the Great Millennium Bubble are all firmly imprinted on our minds. The works of Charles Mackay and Joseph de la Vega enjoy the status commanded by the best of novels. Uninhibited supply meets insatiable demand! Bubble plots follow a familiar form. The seed is in a story of untold riches in prospect, a new era, a new paradigm. The word is put about. The smart money buys and prices rise. A clamour for stock is met by a ready supply on easy terms. Rising prices become the news that drives demand higher. What can have greater utility than an asset that grows in value by leaps and knows no bounds? Demand increases. More paper is manufactured. The dynamics of chain letters, pyramid selling and Ponzi schemes now click in. The great and the good affirm all is well. Discordant voices are shouted down. Prices lose all touch with reality, the smart money sells. Disbelief is no longer in suspension. Panic selling takes hold. The last in lose everything. The guilty are sought out and pilloried. The memory fades. One could surmise that such a predictable run of events could give rise to trading opportunities, and we will return to this later. People are fallible, often irrational, follow intuition and rules of thumb, make biased decisions and, in short, are human. This needs to be factored into any understanding of how markets work. This realisation has spawned much literature classified as behavioural finance. One theme is that investors tend to make irrational investment decisions because of over-reliance on imperfect rules of thumb and intuition. An example is 'past performance is the best predictor of future performance'. This heuristic bias we are told can lead to over-confident trading and nasty accidents. Another theme is that we tend to be influenced by how decision problems are framed. For instance we feel losses much more acutely than gains of equal magnitude. Loss aversion may cause us to hang on to a losing position for too long. The behaviourists maintain that these effects can lead to price distortions and market inefficiency. EMH describes markets as rationale, mechanistic and efficient. Traders by contrast see markets as offering speculative opportunities. Many believe that technical trading is profitable, that a 'market psychology' exists and that herd effects unrelated to news can cause bubbles and crashes. We often hear of the market being 'nervous' or 'sluggish' or 'jittery' as if possessing its own moods and personality. From this viewpoint markets are psychological, organic and imperfectly efficient. From the traders' viewpoint the standard academic theory is unrealistic and at odds with their experience. The opinions of two eminently successful traders are illustrative. Soros[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note20#note20" 20] has this to say about EMH: "Existing theories about the behaviour of stock prices are remarkably inadequate. They are of so little value to the practitioner that I am not even fully familiar with them. The fact that I could get by without them speaks for itself. Generally theories fall into two categories: fundamentalist and technical. More recently the random walk theory has come into vogue; this theory holds that the market fully discounts all future developments so that the individual participant's chances of over or underperforming the market is as a whole even. This line of argument has served as a theoretical justification for the increasing number of institutions that invest in index funds. The theory is manifestly false -- I have disproved it by consistently outperforming the averages over a period of twelve years. Institutions may be well advised to invest in index funds rather than making specific investment decisions, but the reason is to be found in their substandard performance, not in the impossibility of outperforming the averages." Soros appears to make money by exploiting disequilibrium in markets and he has devised a mental model to identify and read the dynamics of such situations. He contends that whilst markets might appear to be in equilibrium, this is an unstable state. There are always forces which tend to tilt towards disequilibrium. Soros thinks that markets are always biased in one direction or another and crucially markets can influence the events they anticipate. The latter factor he calls reflexivity. For instance a company with particularly favoured management might happen to operate in a currently favoured sector. This could lead to an above the norm valuation in the market. The company can capitalise on this to go on an acquisition spree thus growing more quickly than its competitors. This in turn can increase its valuation and so on in a positive feedback loop. As well as the fundamentals affecting the stock price the stock price can influence the fundamentals. When the latter effect is strong Soros contends that this can lead to disequilibrium such as the boom/bust cycle that can be exploited for profit. As an example Soros cites the conglomerate boom of the late 1960s where he made money on the way up and on the way down. He maintains the key to this boom was a prevailing misconception amongst investors. Whilst valuing on the basis of per-share earnings, investors had failed to discriminate how the earnings growth was accomplished. A few companies learned to produce and hone earnings growth through acquisitions. Once this was reflected in stock prices they could use their premium-priced paper to acquire other companies, the seed of a boom/bust cycle. Buffet[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note21#note21" 21] has this opinion on EMH: "Proponents of the theory have never seemed interested in discordant evidence. Apparently a reluctance to recant, and thereby demystify the priesthood, is not limited to theologiansObserving correctly that the market was frequently efficient they went on to conclude incorrectly that it was always efficient. The difference between these propositions is night and day." A student of Benjamin Graham, the doyen of value investing, Buffet's focus style of management involves picking a few stocks that from fundamental analysis appear to have good long term prospects, taking large positions in the chosen few and holding them for the long term. Whilst flying in the face of efficient markets and modern portfolio theory, Warren Buffet's style has certainly worked well for him and his followers. Getting a life In an attempt to breathe life into models, and to imitate more closely real-world dynamics, some model builders have turned to adaptive agent-based simulation. For an example see Axelrod.[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note22#note22" 22] Such simulations typically run in discrete steps, the inputs for each step being the outputs from the previous step. At each step conditions evolve according to the model parameters and algorithms. This open form approach can be used to investigate and explain the dynamics of complex and emergent processes. Game theory often provides inspiration for agent interaction and evolutionary theory for agent development. A good example of an adaptive agent based model is the Santa Fe Institute's Artificial Stock Market* (ASM). In the following I draw from the experiment performed by Arthur, Holland, LeBaron, Palmer and Tayler.[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note23#note23" 23] ASM models markets as a changing world of less than rational agents who embark on a voyage of discovery. Agents continually explore and develop forecasting models, and buy and sell assets based on the predictions of the models that perform best. Each agent acts independently, following its currently best forecast, but the returns to each agent depend on the decisions made simultaneously by all the other agents in the market. ASM uses a genetic algorithm# to evolve winning strategies. In contrast to the EMH picture of homogeneous agents with perfectly rational expectations who deduce prices from available information, the thinking behind the ASM model is that asset prices are determined by heterogeneous agents whose expectations continually adapt to the market these expectations aggregately create. Agents continually form individual, hypothetical expectational models or 'theories of the market', test these and trade on the ones that predict best. From time to time they drop hypotheses that perform badly, and introduce new ones to test. Prices are driven endogenously by these inductive expectations. Individual expectations therefore evolve and compete in a market formed by others' expectations. In other words agents' expectations co-evolve in a world they co-create to endow the market with a psychology, of the sort a trader like Soros could identify with. The natural question is whether these heterogeneous expectations co-evolve into homogeneous rational expectations, beliefs and equilibrium, upholding the efficient markets theory; or whether richer individual and collective behaviour emerges, upholding the trader's viewpoint. The simulated market is based on a simple neoclassical two asset market. Where it breaks with tradition is that agents form their own expectations individually and inductively. The market contains two assets: a risky stock which pays a stochastic dividend, in finite supply; and a risk-free bond, available in infinite supply. Agents, initially endowed with a certain sum of money, must decide in each time period of the simulation how to allocate their capital between the two assets. They do this by forecasting the price of the stock, and assessing its riskiness measured by the variance of the prices. Agents may recognise two different kinds of market states (possibly simultaneously): technical and fundamental. A market state detected by an agent is 'technical' if it identifies a pattern in the past price history, and is fundamental if it identifies an immediate over- or under-valuation of the stock. An example of a technical state would be 'the price is greater than the 50 period moving average', and an example of a fundamental state would be 'the price is over-valued by 10%.' If the market state in a given period matches the descriptor of a forecasting rule, the rule is said to be activated. A number of an agent's forecasting rules may be activated at a given time, thus giving the agent many possible forecasts from which to choose. An agent decides which of the active forecasts to use by choosing at random among the active forecasts with a probability proportional to its accuracy, a measure that indicates how well the rule has performed in the past. Once the agent has chosen a specific rule to use, the rule is employed to make an investment decision. Agents determine how much stock to buy, sell or hold, using a standard risk-aversion calculation. They submit their decisions to the market specialist, an extra agent in the market whose role in life is to clear the market. The evolution of the population of forecasting rules over time is determined by a genetic algorithm. Whenever the GA is invoked, it substitutes new forecasting rules for a fraction of the least-fit forecasting rules in each agent's pool of rules. The GA may be compared to a real-world consultant. It replaces current poorly performing rules with rules that are likely to perform better. It is important to note that agents in this model learn in two ways. First, as each rule's accuracy varies from time period to time period, each agent preferentially uses the more accurate of the rules available to it. Second, on an evolutionary time scale, the pool of rules as a whole improves through the action of the genetic algorithm. What the model reveals In one experiment, only one aspect of the model was varied: the agent's rate of exploration of alternative expectations (the evolutionary learning rate). At a low exploration rate the market price converges rapidly to equilibrium where there are no winners and losers, trading volume is low and bubbles, crashes and technical trading do not emerge. As the exploration rate of agents is increased, however, the market springs to life. Interestingly, experimentation has indicated that, if given the choice, agents will select this rate as it maximises their wealth. Temporary prices, bubbles and crashes appear in prices and agents' holdings diverge. Variance of the price--time series is relatively high and GARCH volatility signatures, typical of real markets, appear. The evolved rules are complex; technical trading strategies emerge and persist, and trading volumes are higher. Technical analysis can emerge if trend following (or mean reversion) beliefs are by chance generated in the population, and if random perturbation in the dividend sequence activates and subsequently validates them. From then on they may take their place in the population of patterns recognised by agents, and become self reinforcing. Another interesting experiment by Joshi, Parker and Bedau[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note24#note24" 24] shows that widespread technical trading can arise due to a multi-person Prisoners' Dilemma* in which inclusion of technical trading rules in single agent's repertoire is a dominant strategy. The use of this dominant strategy by all traders in the market creates a symmetrical Nash# equilibrium in which wealth earned is lower and volatility is higher than in a case where agents rely only on fundamental rules. Does ASM experience 'moods'? Agents can entertain more than one market hypothesis. Thus one can imagine circumstances of a prolonged 'bull market' up-trending to well above fundamental value in which the market state activates predictors that indicate the uptrend will continue, and simultaneously other predictors that point to a rapid downward correction. Such combinations could well be described as 'nervous'. What about motivations to trade in the ASM model? In the rational expectations model the deductively rational agents have no motivation to trade, even where they differ in beliefs. In contrast, ASM agents do not necessarily converge in beliefs. Thus they retain a motivation to trade betting ultimately on their powers as market statisticians. Although their abilities are the same, their luck in finding good predictors diverges over time. At each period the accuracy of their predictors is fully accounted for in their allocations between the risk-free and the risky asset. Given that traders only act as market statisticians, their behaviour can be fairly described as rational. The conclusion to all this is that agents' forecasts create the world that agents are trying to forecast. Thus, to borrow a term used frequently by Soros to explain market behaviour, asset markets have a 'reflexive' nature in which prices are generated by traders' expectations, but their expectations are formed on the basis of others' expectations. The ASM experiment shows that both the rational expectations model and the trader's views can be accommodated. A fair game? At the time of writing (February 2002) the game appears to be on a losing streak; the gold price stands at a 2-year high. AIB has just announced a surprise loss of USD750m on foreign exchange trading, approaching the amount that brought down Barings. The story of the Enron collapse, the biggest corporate bankruptcy in US history, is unfolding and revealing huge bad debts at several major US banks. For instance JP Morgan Chase recently wrote down USD451m and is reported to have a further USD2bn potential loss on its books. Needless to say, the bank's stock has taken a tumble. Tech stocks continue to be hammered across the board two years after the pricking of the dot com bubble. For instance the price of Worldcom -- one of the highest telecoms fliers -- currently stands at USD6, down from a high of over USD60 two years ago. Global Crossing, another high flier at one stage valued at USD50bn, has just filed for protection under Chapter 11. Computer Associates the world's fourth largest software company, has been forced to delay a KSD1bn stock issue and is facing a credit downgrade. The NASDAQ composite index took some 25 years to rise surely and steadily up to the 1000 mark. In 1996 it took off sharply, to reach over 5000 by March 2000, leaving its more staid S&P 500 and DJIA brethren languishing. It currently stands at 1800. What statisticians would call a good example of reversion to the mean. One might conjecture from all this that the financial markets are only for the foolish or the brave. Investors' appetite for risk nevertheless seems to be undiminished: witness the explosion in hedge funds, some of which appear to deviate from the philosophy first articulated by Alfred Winslow Jones, and appear to be anything but hedged. In spite of the spectacular implosion of Long Term Capital Management, money continues to pour into hedge funds and is estimated to have risen from USD20bn in 1990 to some USD400bn at present. The number of funds has risen from 200 to 3000 over the same period (Temple, 2001[ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "note25#note25" 25]). If you don't qualify as a hedge fund investor, and still have a strong taste for risk, you could join the 20 million or so online account holders and churn and burn using your home PC. Once signed up you can download a state-of-the-art desktop trading system, check the state of the market using 'heat maps', and ride intra-day charts taking long or short positions, on margin of course. If you don't fancy individual stocks you can buy and sell exchange traded funds, or you can second guess the big boys at Vanguard by trading their wonderfully named 'Vipers'. Alternatively you could peruse the Morningstar.com Investment Radar to select a fund management style that suits your tastes and appetite for risk. On the other hand you might decide to forego such niceties and go directly to Fidelity.com or Vanguard.com to do the business. It you are a gentleman or woman of means you could always avail yourself of the tailored services of Babson Investment Advisors Inc at  HYPERLINK "http://www.babson.com" www.babson.com. Oh yes, the spirit of Babson lives! Please do not apply unless you have more than GBP500,000 to play with though. In fact you can obtain price charts in printed form or Internet-delivered from the Securities Research Company, a subsidiary of the venerable Babson-United Investment Advisors Inc. I know that Soros uses them. Peter Bennett advises stock exchanges and practitioners on trading systems development. Amongst many achievements, he is the architect of TOPIC, the system that allowed the London Stock Exchange to move trading from the traditional floor to a system of screen trading. TOPIC endures and is now owned by Thompson Financial Networks. He is co-founder of the Tradepoint Investment Exchange, now called virt-x and owned jointly by the Swiss Stock Exchange and a consortium of the leading Investment Banks and ECNs. Peter can be contacted at  HYPERLINK "mailto:peter.m.bennett@btinternet.com" peter.m.bennett@btinternet.com. References [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref1#ref1" 1] The Great Crash 1929, J K Galbraith, Pelican, 1954. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref2#ref2" 2] Capital Ideas and Market Realities; Option Replication, Investor Behavior, and Stock Market Crashes, Bruce Jacobs, Blackwell, April 1999. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref3#ref3" 3] Efficient Capital Markets; A Review of Theory and Empirical Work, Eugene F Fama, Journal of Finance Volume 25, Issue 2, May 1970. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref4#ref4" 4] Thorie de la Speculation, Louis Bachelier, Paris Gauthier-Villars, 1900. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref5#ref5" 5] The Behavior of Stock Market Prices, Eugene F Fama, Journal of Business, January 1965. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref6#ref6" 6] The Analysis of Economic Time Series, Maurice G Kendall, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Part 1 1953. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref7#ref7" 7] Spectral Analysis of New York Stock Prices, C W J Granger and O Morgenstern, Kyklos, 16 (1963). [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref8#ref8" 8] The Random Walk Hypothesis of Stock Marker Behavior, Michael D Godfrey, C W J Granger and O Morgenstern, Kyklos 17, 1964. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref9#ref9" 9] Price Movements in Speculative Markets; Trends or Random Walk, Sidney S Alexander Industrial Management Review, May 1961. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref10#ref10" 10] Against the Gods -- The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter L Bernstein, John Wiley 1998. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref11#ref11" 11] The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information, Eugene F Fama, L Fisher, M Jensen, and R Roll International Economic Review, February 1969. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref12#ref12" 12] The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1955-64, Michael Jensen, Journal of Finance May 1968. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref13#ref13" 13] On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance, M Carhart, Journal of Finance 1997. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref14#ref14" 14] Beyond Greed and Fear, H Shefrin, Harvard Business School Press, 2000. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref15#ref15" 15] A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, Andrew Lo and Craig Mackinlay, Princeton 1999. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref16#ref16" 16]  HYPERLINK "http://www.olsen.ch" www.olsen.ch [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref17#ref17" 17] Financial Markets Tick by Tick, Pierre Lequeux, Wiley 1999. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref18#ref18" 18] New Facts in Finance, John H Cochrane, University of Chicago, June 1999. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref19#ref19" 19] Irrational Exuberance, Robert J Schiller, Princeton, 2000. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref20#ref20" 20] The Alchemy of Finance, George Soros, Wiley, 1987. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref21#ref21" 21] The Warren Buffet Portfolio, Robert Hagstrom, Wiley 1999. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref22#ref22" 22] The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent Based Models of Competition and Collaboration, Robert Axelrod, Princeton. 1997. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref23#ref23" 23] Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market, W Brian Arthur, John H Holland, Blake LeBaron, Richard Palmer and Paul Tayler, Santa Fe Institute, December 1996. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref24#ref24" 24] Technical Trading Creates a Prisoners Dilemma, Shareen Joshi, Jeffrey Parker, Mark Bedau, Santa Fe Institute, December 1998. [ HYPERLINK "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/articles_story.cfm?id=38746" \l "ref25#ref25" 25] Hedge Funds, The Courtesans of Capitalism, Peter Temple, Wiley, 2001. Disaster recovery after September 11 John R Robinson Principal, JR Consulting Partners Limited Most people can recall where they were on September 11, 2001, at the moments the planes struck the World Trade Center twin towers. The disturbing memory is etched on my mind, first receiving the call, then later coming to terms with the grim reality as it was relayed around the world by the media. As a so-called business continuity expert, the sensation of loss was amplified by past experience and an insight of what was to come. For two decades, both before and after the London bombings of the 1990s, a handful of specialists including myself have preached, lived and breathed disaster recovery (DR) in its many guises and now, despite the billions of dollars spent to secure the way we do business and proof it against disruption, we are confronted by this apocalyptic scenario. So what does 9/11 really mean for business? Has the world changed? Will normality be resumed in a year, a decade, or is this the beginning of a new era, a Vietnam or a Cold War? This is a chilling and uncertain possibility. In this article I have attempted to crystallise what I believe are the future implications of September 11 for global markets and world trade generally. Evolution Technically, we are told, the term 'DR' (disaster recovery) was superseded in the early 1990s by 'contingency planning', later by 'business continuity' and recently by 'operational risk management'. To be sure, the discipline is maturing, but it's important to understand what it means, where the advances came from and their relative value. From my perspective there are two key differences between then and now. First, business continuity in its purest form means that from the outside, despite inner chaos, there is negligible perception of anything untoward. This implies that reputation will be preserved, business revenues undiminished, growth continuous and competitive edge maintained. This amounts to perfection, the holy grail of business continuity; the reality is rarely so aesthetically or financially pleasing, although some very impressive organisations all but achieved this following 9/11. Second, DR traditionally was the preserve of technology, the replacement of business-critical equipment (often a mainframe environment) in an acceptably short time, leaving business to sort itself out within the criteria imposed by the technologists. In this respect the business continuity school scores significant points, underscored in red by the experiences of 9/11. Business continuity uses business need to set the priorities and timeframes that must be achieved by IT and all other infrastructure providers -- not the other way around. It puts the boot, very logically, on the other foot. (Note that, for the purposes of this article and for the sake of familiarity, I will use the DR acronym and assume that it now encompasses those aspects of business continuity that have been added since the phrase was coined.) From a world trade perspective, DR's role is akin to that of insurance and could even be conceived as a form of marketing. A firm's ability to demonstrate resilience gives its counterparties, its suppliers and its clients the confidence they need to commit to large-scale business. Indeed, a select few world-class companies require evidence of DR provision before taking on a new supplier. But for the majority, enthusiasm and demand for DR from executives remains fickle. Despite the advances described above and the shocks delivered by Sarin gas, the IRA, Y2K, and a dozen other 'lessons', DR rarely rises above 'grudge purchase' status, and never more so than in times of recession. We must hope and believe that the memory of 9/11 will have a different, enduring effect, although the evidence I have gathered in some organisations already suggests that the contrary may be true. A changing climate In the introduction I alluded to a change in the political climate, brought about by terrorism, its parameters redefined on September 11 in terms of scale, simplicity, motivation, targeting and human misery. Al Qaeda has ably demonstrated that globalisation is not restricted to peaceable organisations and that terrorism is the political weapon of choice for some globally active factions. It is a sobering thought that the first ever conference on biochemical terrorism took place in February 2002. Equally worrying is the number of apparently independant and relatively minor incidents that seem to be occurring. The business of global terrorism affects all legitimate trade. It gives it new impetus and urgency and a set of negated assumptions: urgent operational challenges that must be met. It also begs many unanswered questions, not least 'could this happen again?' We have to assume that it could, particularly where the democratic, multi-ethnic, multi-ideological nature of first world societies leaves them exposed and open to disruption from within. Activism, anti-capitalism, anti-progress, race- and religion-related unrest feature regularly in the media and typically focus on causing intensive localised disruption to a target organisation. These realisations have caused our DR focus to change once again and already organisations are adopting new procedures to manage the new risks as they perceive them. We have already begun to react as we seek to protect ourselves, and the pressure will increase as customers, auditors, regulators and markets demand that we become measurably resilient. Our immediate actions will be largely in the form of 'sharp end' preventive tactics with emphasis on viability and realism. Our longer term response may include cultural change, reducing travel, self-insuring as premiums soar and perhaps, as in Johannesburg, we will abandon the central business district as the preferred place of work, creating 'doughnut cities' with a no-go core. Geography and real estate September 11 saw a significant change in attitude toward real estate. Leaders have assumed (correctly in my view) that CBDs, symbolic buildings and those shared by high-profile organisations have a greater likelihood of being targeted. So the prestige and convenience associated with premier locations must now be offset against the additional risks borne by the firms that occupy them. Nor has this factor been lost on employees: a survey carried out by globalcontinuity.com shortly after the tragedy indicated a strong reaction against working in high-rise offices, where 43% said they would strongly resist such an offer. Sceptics now acknowledge that wide-area disasters will occur and organisations within a substantial radius of an impact can be affected both directly and indirectly (yet still I occasionally find difficulty in persuading organisations to plan for this). These effects can range from physical damage through to denial of access for prolonged periods and the loss of vital utilities. Each can be manifested in multiple forms and with multiple compounding side effects. The number of detailed scenarios is endless and we cannot hope to plan for all of them; a new approach is required where plans are conceived with an underlying emphasis on flexibility and interpretation. Some unfortunate organisations lost both their primary and back-up sites as a result of 9/11, their worst-case provision compromised by a desire for operational convenience. A second survey supported this, showing a surprising number of organisations with recovery sites either within the CBD, within 2 km of the primary site or both; of these, many were already considering a move further afield. Experience has long shown that out-of-town or remote recovery locations reduce the chance of incidental concurrent outage and that multi-site distributed organisations tend to be more resilient than single-site businesses. Location, evacuation capacity, prominence, the businesses carried on by co-tenants and the location of alternative operating centres are all now important factors in deciding where to locate your business. A fair share Some organisations opt to use specialist DR service providers rather than bear the cost of maintaining their own 'warm site'. These DR providers generate revenue by selling the opportunity to use their workspace, equipment, technicians and other assets to multiple customers. They argue that the chance of concurrent demand or 'invocation', to use an industry term, is vanishingly small and, in the majority of cases (localised interruptions, computer-specific failures and so on), this formula works particularly well. However, unless great care is taken by providers in managing risk ratios, syndication does not work well for wide-area incidents. On September 11, many businesses found their contracted recovery venues already occupied by others who shared their syndication on a first come, first served basis. In one case, a firm called to invoke its provider some eight minutes after the event and was informed that they were the eleventh in line. Such firms either received a small percentage of their anticipated service level or were diverted to more remote centres not catered for in their plans. (Others were magnificently served by their DR providers and none to my knowledge were simply left out in the cold.) In my opinion, syndication breaks down because beyond a notional break-even number of participants, each additional subscription represents clear profit and encourages high syndication rates, sometimes on specific units of equipment. In my experience, it is almost unheard of for hot site providers to disclose the exact number, identity, location or contractual terms relating to other syndicants. DR suppliers also generally charge invocation fees to occupants of their facilities, charges that will be recouped in many cases through insurance claims. Perhaps the new risk climate will encourage DR firms to offer more transparency on their risk management processes and provide stronger guarantees to syndicants. A safe supply Despite DR providers' undoubted pre-occupation with caring for the many firms they continue to support in and around New York, it would be wrong to suggest that calm has been restored to the DR market. Its principal players have had the time to catch their breath and the market space remains active, turbulent and changing. Polarisation is occurring, with a small number of industrial behemoths steadily reeling-in the weaker or smaller players. A fierce battle was waged recently as third-placed SunGard (DR revenues of around USD410m last year according to Gartner Dataquest) and fourth-placed HP (USD135m) fought over second-placed but faltering Comdisco (USD480m). SunGard's eventual successful acquisition means it is now placed almost on a par with IBM, which accounts for around 40% of the worldwide business continuity services market. Opinion on the outcome of this change is divided, with some viewing it as anti-competitive, reducing choice in an already cramped market. Others see it as a beneficial consolidation, increasing the depth of resource available to them should disaster strike. As a by-product of this trend, the number of specialist DR suppliers is also dwindling. Earlier in the year Sema group was acquired by Schlumberger, originally an oilfield services provider, now repositioned as a global technology services company. IBM, HP, GE, SunGard, DEC and many other mainstream technology providers now offer disaster recovery services as just one part of a diverse technology portfolio. Relatively few now deliver DR as their mainstream focus. Perhaps the wider market has become too uncertain to support so concentrated an offering, or perhaps the pace of technological advance and level of investment required to build a viable DR enterprise presents too great a challenge to niche providers. One scenario, then, would be that DR attains the status of a 'value added service' available to be purchased from a systems or services provider. Given this, I envisage few niche entrants to the DR market, although other major players may join the fray, attracted by DR's lure of short-term growth. Within the new commercial formula we should expect the 'high street retailer effect' to prevail, encouraging us to buy a three- or five-year disaster recovery 'insurance policy' whenever a major IT installation is commissioned. Long-term flexible commitments like this are profitable, increasing the stability and forecast net worth of providers. A third significant trend, a blurring of the distinctions between the high availability and disaster recovery markets, is also evident. Many of the organisations mentioned in this article already offer distributed high-availability services. Interestingly, if clients opt for multi-site resilient operations then conventional DR contracts will become increasingly obsolete. In the longer term we can anticipate that, in keeping with multi-site policies, organisations and particularly financial institutions will build in resilience by investing in distributed high-availability solutions. An increasing number, although still a minority, will find they no longer need a DR provider and will bring the entire capability in-house. Perhaps we will come to regard September 11 as the cataclysmic event that reshaped the DR industry, killing off the dinosaurs and evolving tough new breeds capable of ensuring our businesses survive these harsh conditions. People One of the lasting messages conveyed by the reports of colleagues, the press and those directly involved in recovery following September 11, is the astonishing fragility of the conventional business infrastructure. In many cases we rely on the web of interconnection and interaction of multiple assets, so much so that an event beyond a set piece scenario results in temporary chaos and delay beyond tolerable limits. Backups, recovery centres, instruction manuals, plans and all the DR measures imaginable cannot of themselves resolve the chaotic disorder arising from major disruption and it is people, not systems, who dominate the recovery process. They alone are capable of injecting the necessary order, offering the resourcefulness, flexibility and motivation required to rebuild and re-tune so complex a system. Reports from firms who successfully recovered from the World Trade Center catastrophe unfailingly highlight the crucial part played by staff. One organisation reported making over one million client calls, providing 250,000 free meals and operating 40 command centres. They stated that "employees and vendors will always rise to the occasion and can accomplish 'miracles' to recover the firm". Paradoxically, in most organisations few staff willingly participate in DR-related activities, partly because they receive little recognition for it and partly because it is seen as a defensive, low-yield activity, lacking in kudos. This perception may stem from the overly prescriptive or analytic methods historically employed, the failure by executives to sell the need to line management, and the pass-or-fail test regimes that have traditionally been imposed. A number of organisations, including my own, are now working in ways that correct this condition. Need to communicate No matter how willing the workforce, it cannot function if it cannot communicate. Yet in the hours immediately following the attack, almost all fixed line and mobile networks in the vicinity of the World Trade Center became inoperable. This was due to the destruction of critical supplier infrastructure, the saturation of the system by the sheer volume of calls being made and the seizure of reserve bandwidth by the emergency services. The resulting telecomm blackout meant that businesses found it difficult to organise recovery and were unable to contact or account for many of their employees. Any recovery processes reliant on data transfer via public or private networks were also disrupted. This incredible telecoms blackout has encouraged many executives and infrastructure managers to review their dependency on existing networks and look for ways to create resilience and redundancy for these systems. This is borne out by Gartner Dataquest's findings that, following September 11, 50% of United States businesses expect to realign their internal budgets to allow for increased spending on telecom resilience and services. The powerful message that businesses cannot rely on the telecom service when it needs it most makes innovation seem inevitable. A McKinsey report found that firms were "overly vulnerable to 'choke points', telephone switches and other hubs through which key information flows". The report recommended that businesses should develop "an alternative communications system for emergencies" and even suggested that "the financial services industry should consider developing a secure network for use in emergency situations that does not rely on the main telecommunications network or on the mobility of participants". The telecomm failure had an immediate effect on the Internet industry, with the initial shock and subsequent slow recovery affecting many web-dependent companies. Those directly affected by the failures saw their websites out of service for days, delivering a severe blow to e-commerce related businesses in the area. Other companies suffered temporary service problems as the surge in Internet usage around the world overloaded the otherwise unaffected Internet infrastructure. In the weeks immediately following 9/11 there was evidence that firms whose business model relied on the Internet for e-commerce sales, or for other mission-critical activities, such as communicating with staff and customers, had also begun to investigate and implement resilience solutions, such as load balancing, DNS rerouting and the adoption of multi-site operations. The importance of telecoms is set to increase still further, spurred by the popular disinclination to travel. Improvements in streaming media, video-conferencing and remote-meeting technology seem set to encourage this trend, still further increasing our dependence on technology. In the same way that work expands to fill the time available, so it seems that telecoms bandwidth will continue to be soaked up just as fast as it becomes affordable. Driven by competitive necessity, telecom companies must now find new ways to respond, differentiating and perhaps offering high-priced contingency bandwidth and systematically eliminate these choke points. Conclusion The need for business continuity and/or disaster recovery has been hammered home by the tragedy of September 11, painfully focusing our attention on the vulnerability of western culture and business in general. Yet it seems unlikely that the terrorist threat will be nullified in the foreseeable future. In most jurisdictions, a firm's principals are held legally responsible for safeguarding its stakeholders' interests, a remit that demands the effective and prudent management of operational risk. The persistent threat profile described in this article insists that executives act to prepare and protect the organisations in their charge. To satisfy this legal, commonsense and competitive necessity, we should aim for a multi-faceted response whose key points are to: immediately fill any apparent gaps in corporate defences -- increase front-desk security, train executives to handle crises, teach postroom staff to deal with powder-filled envelopes -- but not in isolation; insist that utility companies (including telecoms) provide diverse routed capacity for use in an emergency; site recovery locations or processing centres, or both, out-of-town, maintaining a 'thin blue line' style of presence; research advanced technology solutions that allow data and processing to be rapidly replicated between sites, ideally in real-time; devise a planned response that is flexible, capable of handling diverse scenarios and delivering near-continuous business; train people and rehearse the planned response until individuals are confident and can use their initiative, adapting and responding with minimal instruction. Together, these measures will increase organisational resilience, building a solid prevention-and-cure capability. Rejecting them could be viewed as somewhat short-sighted. More information about JR Consulting Partners Ltd can be found at  HYPERLINK "http://www.jrcpl.com" \t "_blank" www.jrcpl.com. The challenge of global trading systems Charles Tresser, Peter Bobris and Francis Lacan IBM Exchanges: a changing world A quick glance through the 2001 edition of the Handbook of World Stock, Derivative & Commodity Exchanges would suffice to convince anyone, even new to the business, that the world of exchanges is changing, and dramatically so. Here is a key quote from Martin Scullion, who says in 'Demutualisation: The challenges facing global exchanges': "Very few exchanges would disagree with the fact that the current competitive climate has never been so intense: The barriers to entry for new entrants have been slowly eroded through market pressures and increasing dissatisfaction with the way exchanges have been managed. Stakeholders can be easily raided. New electronic alternate trading systems seem to be mushrooming. Fragmentation in an un-level playing field is rife. There will be changes in price discovery forums in response to systemic risk management via central Counterparties." The problems often mentioned include diminishing margins, disintermediation, and the terrible choice between cannibalisation and being eaten. Today's exchange environment is clearly dynamic and a great concern to those operating and trying to survive in it. A problem with technological roots It is also widely recognised (see, e.g., Patrick Young & Thomas Theys, Capital Market Revolution; Prentice Hall, 1999), that the problems the exchanges are now facing have technological roots. No explosion of offshore entities or Electronic Communication Network (ECN) could exist without the new generations of trading systems. There is no better way to reach end-customers than with the public Internet. However, it is not always as easy to do that in emerging economies like India and China. This lack of easy (and open) affordable mass access limits rapid growth of the number of players. Those that do participate in the market will require secure networked environments that include robust wireless multi device communications. The linkages between the economic and technical issues related to exchanges and trading markets are deep. For instance, who would believe that it is pure coincidence that the first exchange to demutualise (the ASX -- Australian Stock Exchange) would also be the first one to launch an all electronic market? The problems created for exchanges by technology are heightened by the fact that regulatory bodies, together with market pressure, drive exchanges to continually improve performance and hence their efficiency. This pressure provides systemic benefits to the participants such as T+1 settlement cycles, more open, fair and transparent environments, as well as better public disclosure of market information. It is not surprising that some analysts see the problems the exchanges now have from an optimistic viewpoint. They tell us that this technology-led crisis in the market underscores the drive to achieve the three-pronged holy grail of capital markets: More Liquidity! More Accessibility! More Transparency! Young and Theys say that these elements are what the markets want and that technology will make the delivery of them possible. However, not all exchanges will survive this transition. Besides major players, niche markets have better odds of survival -- especially those which are global in reach, even if rather focused on the list of things they trade. If existing markets cannot provide (or afford to deliver) the liquidity, accessibility and transparency that participants need, they will lose trading volumes to those that can provide these features. We can conclude that technology, by itself and by triggering a variety of mechanisms, has pushed exchanges to global rather than local market strategies. But will technology allow the exchanges to operate properly in such new conditions? This question of how technology will take on the challenge of global trading systems has been raised by the environment the exchanges operate in. The more basic question of whether technology will be able to take on this challenge is by no means trivial. The issue becomes one of addressing the many competing business requirements that will make liquidity globalisation happen. We often hear expert Information Technology (IT) architects say 'all these requirements cannot be jointly delivered'. This competition of needs and requirements forces impossible choices, such as 'either you get your business process, or you get security', or 'do you want it to work, or do you want it to scale?' The answer of course is that you want it all and in fact you need it all. In the end all will be delivered as technology advances. However, the journey getting there may be very rough on some participants. From discussing the challenge, to taking it on To this point our discussion has been primarily at the level of generalities. We will now get more IBM-specific. Clearly, overall problems such as 'The challenge of global trading systems'. are, as a rule, too big for solutions to be described to their entirety in the limited scope of an essay like this one. This is why we will only show how to solve some very specific but significant, hard core embodiments of the challenge. We will also invite the reader to contemplate with us selected parts of the broad horizon of our technological future. One main point we want to make is that a broad enough technological agenda, if targeted at helping the markets, can provide means to address the main challenge of global trading systems. This is part of a larger scale phenomenon that transcends any special line of business, across all industries: we are, whether we like it or not, in times when technology changes define new business rules instead of causing only quantitative changes to the way business is made. Rather than 'solutions jump' at problems, a visit to some 'elements', technological wonders out of the IBM Research Labs, should stimulate the imagination. A few words on our Labs are in order. With about 60,000 people in R&D, including 3,000 in the Research Division, IBM has been an industry technical leader for many years: altogether, a web of R&D that produced 3,411 US Patents in 2001. What is less well known is that IBM increasingly focuses on business issues, by endeavouring to solve the major problems faced by our customers and the markets in general, and by combining its own inventiveness with that of its business partners. In a nutshell, if you tell IBM your business problem, IBM Research and its full R&D strength can be brought to bear to help you decide whether this problem has a technological or technology-based solution. If such a solution has not yet been invented but can be assessed to possibly exist without violating any law of nature, well, Research will try very hard to invent it for you. Focusing on three facets of the challenge There are three facets to the exchanges/markets challenge that we will address: Facing diminishing margins by creating liquidity with electronic brokers Creating markets that are both fair and scalable Operational resilience (OR). We will first describe technology elements generated by the Research Labs. Then we will briefly show how some of the elements combine to tackle the three embodiments of the challenge we have singled out. Of these the third one is at a much larger scale and we will discuss it in more detail. Some technological elements from IBM Research Labs MQ WEB scale This is a highly performant, web-oriented, security compatible, content based Pub-Sub messaging system, so performant indeed that it plays a crucial role in the nervous systems of IBM Research's most futuristic autonomic computing projects. Everyone knows what performance and security mean, and why they are essential for a web-oriented messaging system (and who needs justification for making technologies web-compatible). As for 'content based', this replaces the more traditional subject based matching rule. To match a message that is published with a subscriber, one can now go more deeply in the body of the message. For instance, a subscriber can ask for quotes on corporation xxx only on bundles of some arbitrary size, without being limited to a pre-selected set of sizes, with no need to reorganise the nomenclature of what are the permissible matches. Much more flexibility is brought to the matching engine, a fundamental step to elementary intelligence, and a fundamental building block in the architecture for autonomic computing. 4758 PCI Cryptographic Coprocessor This tamper-sensitive, tamper-responding, tamper-evident, field programmable cryptographic coprocessor protects programs and cryptographic keys against any known attack, with the best certification [FIPS 140-1 overall level 4 certified (hardware and microcode)]. It is indeed unique among programmable cryptocards. We call it the 4758 for short as it will play a big role in discussions to follow later. Quantum cryptography This is working already, for instance on a mile-long line at the IBM Almaden Research Labs and at CERN, putting the law of fundamental physics alongside cryptography in charge of protecting secrets. IBM continues to invest in quantum computing research. Quantum computing, if successful, will break cryptography as we know it and can provide the next generation of protection. We also continue to push the envelope of more traditional security technologies. SASH SASH is the research name of a web-plication (or web-oriented application development framework. SASH makes it possible to build web-plications that enable the content riches of the WWW to be combined with the ease of use of local handling of folders, files or data on your laptop or other work station. Audio visual speech recognition That is lip reading to compensate for high noise, such as found near machinery or on an airport runway. You may also think 'trading room'. Video streaming A move toward using all that counts in decision making. Images will be part of the input; no one has any doubt about that. But how you do the indexing, how do you retrieve and distribute? Early usage of such technology includes easy and affordable employee training, which can be deployed across wide geographies if needed. Pervasive computing IT will be everywhere, even hidden in places where it cannot be recognised. Hot topics include wireless transaction (a security challenge of the kind IBM Research loves), location-based services, database synchronisation (as one fundamental piece of seamless multi-channel access), and more. E-Liza This is IBM's own version of Autonomic Computing (AC) with self-diagnosing, self-optimising, self-protecting, self-healing systems as exemplified by the IBM z-Series servers, and much more to come. This could erroneously be though of as fault tolerant computing under a new guise -- but there is much more than fault tolerance to be achieved. Autonomic computing aims, maybe more than anything else, at controlling the explosive complexity of IT systems. We urgently need to control the costs of maintenance and operation which combine to form an ever growing portion of the total cost of ownership: outsourcing won't do per se, as you need to believe the outsourcer will be able to deliver, and keep up with progress (thus the outsourcer at least must master AC). Just to mention one angle, there is a big difference between fault tolerance and operationally resilient fault tolerance. After all, OR is essentially AC enlarged to contain the human and business layers, and contemplated from the user's point of view. Deep computing (and deep mathematics) Good balance needs three pillars. So does computing, to tackle ever harder computational challenges, such as continual optimisation or big portfolio risk assessment. These three pillars are good computers (think cooking ware), good algorithms (think recipes), and the art to execute the best recipes with the best cooking tools. Services where a lot happens An ever growing part of IBM is IGS (IBM Global Services: the people whose pictures you see in most IBM ads) and not surprisingly, if you think about what efficient services now entails, an ever bigger part of the research effort goes into helping IGS. This is so big an area that no short description could do it justice. Imagining how next generation services will interact with the other elements we have cited is a fun game we leave to the reader. Solutions to embodiments of the challenge of global trading systems Facing diminishing margins, and creating liquidity with electronic brokers This may seem too good to be true, but it is made possible by combining the 4758 with MQ Web-scale -- all dressed up with some basic cryptography, matching engines, salted and peppered with know how and imagination. Creating markets that are both fair and scalable Using MQ Web-scale, basic security technologies (time stamps, non repudiation, ...), rule engines, and matching methodologies makes it possible to create efficient, fair, and scalable call auction markets. No need any more to delay artificially the lines to the customer who are the closest, and making it possible to provide for regulatory requirement while using the best of technology, instead of going against progress. Operational resilience This has become a pressing concern after the September 11, 2001 tragedy. Just a few points about OR: The fractal nature of the statistics of Operational Risk demands redundancies at all scales to control and mitigate the risk. It will be crucial to limit the need for Operational Risk (Op Risk) insurance by using more resilient infrastructures that not only protect better -- from the micro scale of what is inside the workstation, to the corporate network and the inter-firm global infrastructure -- but also allows for more adaptability. Of course, IBM Labs will provide full scale help to IBM's Financial Services Sector and the rest of the corporation to articulate and deliver OR, using skills ranging from core microelectronics to statistics and risk modeling and simulation, through the obvious classical IBM ability to deliver reliable, secure and scalable systems. Because of the deep relationship between OR and AC, and because AC is obviously a tremendous challenge, serious scientific and technological problems will need to be solved to allow successive generations of operationally resilient infrastructures. Confidential data collection for analysis, modeling, and other aspects of cost saving and efficiency. One main issue in Op Risk is the difficulty in building models. Not only do the relevant probability distributions have fat tails, but the data are scarce because they are confidential. IBM has invented means to use the 4758 to create databases that could hold secrets while allowing performing analysis that are crucial to the industry. We have represented the main architecture component of this system which applies to many privacy and confidentiality issues. Be sure the insurer can pay; be sure who guarantees services, can serve. Everyone wants to trust the insurer to pay to cover the loss: you need to believe that. Similarly, whoever you rely on to deliver the operations must be trustworthy, especially in hard times. Your strategic outsourcing partner had better be the one offering optimal Operational Resilience; you can guess what we think this implies.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/images/articles/tresser.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  For more information on the ideas and technologies in this article or on any IBM offering, go to  HYPERLINK "http://www.ibm.com/solutions" \t "_blank" www.ibm.com/solutions; or, for a personal response, call or e-mail: Peter R Bobris, Global Head eMarkets Infrastructure, +44-207-202-6258  HYPERLINK "mailto:peterbobris@uk.ibm.com" peterbobris@uk.ibm.com Francis Lacan, IBM Financial Markets Strategist, +44-207-202-3019  HYPERLINK "mailto:francis_lacan@uk.ibm.com" francis_lacan@uk.ibm.com Dr Charles Tresser, TJ Watson Research Center,+1-914-714 -5857  HYPERLINK "mailto:tresser@us.ibm.com" tresser@us.ibm.com Please note that patents are pending on many of the ideas and technologies described in this article. Do we need global market surveillance? Peter Clay and Daniel Cohen PA Consulting Group Financial markets can provide extraordinary benefits when they work well. They enable participants to raise capital, invest, hedge or speculate with safety, with great convenience, at low cost and with privacy. But these benefits may fail to accrue when markets do not work well. A lack of liquidity, for example, can make it difficult for a participant to get a fair price when liquidating a position -- which reduces the safety of that investment. The issue of most concern to potential participants in any given market is the orderly conduct of the market. A disorderly market -- for example, one suffering massive price swings with no apparent cause -- is an extremely dangerous one for participants. For this and other reasons, financial markets have long been regulated, both by national and international institutions and by individual marketplaces. At the national level of regulation, regulators are mainly concerned with the behaviour of investment banks and brokerages with respect to their customers, rather than with the operation of the markets. Regulators are concerned that customers are being advised correctly and not defrauded, and that banks and brokerages are not running risks that could threaten the stability of the entire system of financial markets. International regulation takes the concern with systemic risk further and is concerned with economic stability. Individual marketplaces, in the form of exchanges, regulate their markets through their rules and procedures. Exchanges often have self-regulatory status, reporting to national and international regulators, and market surveillance by exchanges is normally a key requirement of their self-regulatory status. This is not just a philanthropic concern for the well-being of fellow men, but a result of the recognition that people do not shop in markets if they think they are going to get their pockets picked or be ripped-off by the stall holders, and that stall holders will be reluctant to operate in any market where they think their fellow stall holders will rip them off. An orderly market where all participants feel safe is in the best interest of the vast majority of market participants. Exchanges are constantly on guard for attempts by members and their customers to manipulate and subvert the market, at the expense of other market participants. Market surveillance by exchanges is not generally concerned with the behaviour of brokers with respect to their customers, as national regulators are typically responsible for this element of regulation. Rather, exchange market surveillance is concerned with orderly markets, transparency, level playing fields and investor safety. Exchanges deal with the 'grown-ups' -- the professionals at the centre of the market rather than the end-users who are the customers of these professionals. An orderly market will reflect the interplay of buying and selling interest in the investments involved, and trades in such a market will be exposed to the normal pricing mechanisms of the exchange. Whilst it is difficult to specify the conditions that could constitute 'market abuse', they can generally be recognised by the distortion they create in price movements and the resultant weakening of the reliability of price formation processes. One example would be the use of misleading statements to induce participants to buy or sell. Another would be the use of large positions to squeeze a market. The existing regulatory influences are largely effective in maintaining orderly markets, but they cannot prevent all antisocial behaviour. As in any other sphere of life, the bad guys are a step ahead of the police, and regulators face ever-changing and ever-growing forms of market abuse. Effective market surveillance is becoming more difficult One of the major factors driving change in the regulators' environment is the increasing globalisation of the financial markets. Investment banks and major brokerages have been operating globally for many years. Derivatives contracts or near equivalents have been cross-listed on exchanges with varying degrees of success, allowing trading to follow the sun around the globe. Companies have sought global markets for their equity by listing on multiple exchanges. Exchanges -- traditionally regional markets -- have started to get in on the globalisation act. Exchanges first tried alliances across borders, allowing cross-listing of instruments. Demutualisation then raised the globalisation game for exchanges, allowing full-blown takeovers, mergers and joint ventures, so corporate exchanges can have branches around the world. Investors are also getting in on globalisation, and demand is increasing for cross-border trading. Alongside increasing globalisation comes the increasing possibility of cross-market abuse. This type of abuse has been known about since the early days of derivatives exchanges. 'Triple-witchings', where there is a conjunction of expiry dates on related instruments, are dangerous times in the market. Slight price movements can be amplified as positions are adjusted ready for delivery to commence. Such conjunctions are ideal opportunities to manipulate across markets, where there is less chance of being detected. Exchanges were aware of this, and were not only extra vigilant during these periods, but actively tried to avoid conjunctions in expiry dates for related instruments. It is difficult enough for cross-market abuse for related instruments to be prevented or detected when all the instruments involved are traded on the same exchange, but the situation is worse if they are traded on different exchanges. For example, UK equities are traded at the London Stock Exchange (LSE), but options on many of the major London-listed firms are traded at the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE). Activity in the LIFFE market for options in an LSE-listed firm can and will affect the LSE market for the underlying shares, and vice versa. This means that market surveillance units at both exchanges cannot afford to ignore market activity at the other. It gets worse. Many financial instruments are not traded on an exchange but are traditionally traded on telephone markets. This includes over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives that can be closely related to exchange-traded instruments. If we replace the LIFFE-traded equity options in the example above with OTC options then it is difficult to see how the LSE can gain sufficient information to prevent cross-market abuse. The equity markets and those for these related instruments are by no means the most susceptible to market abuse. Perhaps the most obvious target for those intent on manipulating markets is the commodity derivatives world. It's likely that commodity markets have been prone to corners and squeezes since pre-historic times, and the advent of regulated exchanges only meant that the most unsavoury behaviour moved off-exchange. OTC markets, by definition, have no exchange mechanisms to detect market abuse or enforce regulation and many OTC commodity markets are closely connected with exchange markets for the same commodities. This means that a party intent on squeezing an exchange market can conduct much of his trading in the associated OTC market -- free from surveillance and maybe even from prosecution. In one example a rogue copper trader at Sumitomo conducted a series of campaigns to manipulate the copper market over many years. His activities led to excessive price movements on the regulated copper markets including the London Metal Exchange (LME) and New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), even though his trading was largely confined to OTC markets. The high potential for abuse of such markets stems from: The existence of multiple exchanges, plus the OTC market The close connections between markets in futures, forwards, swaps, options and other derivative instruments The relationship between the derivatives markets and the physical market. It is this last factor that makes the commodity markets so susceptible to abuse -- the physical limits on supply of physical commodities mean that significant stockpiling or building of large positive positions in futures will result in shortages and hence in upwards pressure on prices. Consumers typically cannot just switch to an alternative commodity as such a change may require industrial changes that take years or decades, even if an alternative exists. Although the commodity derivatives markets are the worst affected, the ever-expanding array of financial instruments results in similar difficulties in most financial markets. Returning to equities, for example, there are individual equity options, equity index futures and options, swaps, contracts for difference etc. Trading in these different instruments is fragmented across a number of marketplaces, all influencing and influenced by each other, with a patchwork of regulation providing variable and fragmented coverage. So, the increasingly global nature of exchanges, instruments, brokerages and investors, and the fragmentation of trading across different platforms, both suggest an increasing potential for cross-market subversion and manipulation. But market surveillance and regulation seems to be the only aspect of the financial markets that is not going global. Should it, and will it? And if not, why not? Global market surveillance is not the answer In fact, despite the seemingly strong case for it, global market surveillance and regulation is not desirable, achievable, or necessary. The best approach to maintaining orderly markets is to provide the means for market participants to police themselves --transparency -- and to increase the effectiveness of internal controls within firms that participate in the markets. Global market surveillance is not desirable Why is global market surveillance not desirable? Although market participants are the beneficiaries of orderly markets, there is generally a tension between the participants and the regulators. For a start, it's the market participants that pay for the surveillance, through increased exchange and other fees. They are also obliged to incur other costs, including IT and personnel costs to support the compliance function. More than the costs, however, it is the restriction on their activities that irks the banks and brokers. Businesses of all types thrive on freedom and choke on red tape -- what market participants want is less regulation, not more. Global market surveillance is not achievable Even if a global cross-market approach to surveillance were desirable, most commentators believe it would not be possible. Political considerations and self-interest make all cross-border co-operation of this type difficult. Who would control a cross-border market surveillance organisation? To whom would it be responsible? For any country to concede control over its own financial markets to an international body would also represent a loss of face and a diminishment of sovereignty. More seriously, in times of trouble it could represent a potential threat to national economic well-being. Even within a nation, it can be difficult to consolidate surveillance across markets. The UK now has a single Financial Services Authority, but the eight Recognised Investment Exchanges are each responsible for surveillance of their own markets. The US case, and, in particular, the issue of single stock futures, is particularly instructive. Cash equity trading is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Derivatives trading is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. So which of the commissions should regulate trading in single stock futures? The futures market in an individual equity is more than just related to the market in the equity itself -- it is really another manifestation of the same market. The turf war between the two commissions led to a stalemate culminating in the Shad-Johnson accord that prohibited the trade of single stock futures, essentially because the regulators couldn't decide who would regulate the market! This stalemate seems now to have finally been resolved and the two commissions have agreed a joint approach, but, at the time of writing, LIFFE still awaits regulatory approval to offer their single stock futures contracts in the US. Global market surveillance is not necessary But don't the trends described earlier necessitate the establishment of global market surveillance, regardless of the cost or the difficulties of achieving this? Let's take the Sumitomo affair. Since it resulted from trading across multiple markets and multiple jurisdictions it would seem to be a good example of the sort of situation that could have been prevented through global cross-market surveillance and through no other means. But most commentators think otherwise. OTC markets can only affect exchange markets where there is an overlap -- some traders must be active in both markets. This means that exchanges can use their regulatory power over members to force them to provide information on their OTC activity at times when market conditions indicate the necessity of such action. The fall-out from the Sumitomo affair resulted in significant fines for a number of major players, and the rules of the exchanges concerned have been further tightened since. This means that global surveillance would not have been necessary to prevent the Sumitomo affair, had current rules and mechanisms been in place at the time. In fact, some of the mechanisms that were put in place in the wake of the Sumitomo affair point the way towards a more promising approach to maintaining orderly markets. Many of the measures introduced by the LME were aimed at improving market transparency. For example, the LME now publishes reports showing the build-up of potentially market-dominating positions, and these help market participants to tread carefully at dangerous times. LME rules can be used to force market participants to trade at regulated prices if they are judged to hold dominant positions. Further evidence that global market surveillance is not necessary may be seen by considering the case of markets that are not currently exchange-traded and hence do not benefit from market surveillance, except that provided by national regulators. Why is it that these markets run in an orderly manner? Is there anything to be learned from this? The markets in question include some of the biggest and most important, such as the global foreign exchange (FX) markets and the bond markets. Although these markets have traditionally operated without an exchange, they do have a high degree of transparency. Information vendors such as Reuters provide continuous streams of data showing exactly what the market is doing at all times. In addition to the high level of transparency, there is also a community self-policing effect, as anyone caught manipulating these markets would find themselves excluded from further activity by the other major players. So, there are arguments that global market surveillance is not desirable, achievable or necessary, and that increased market transparency can achieve many of the objectives of increased regulation. What else can be done to help ensure orderly markets? Can we get closer to the cause of disorderly markets? Addressing the causes of disorderly markets The Sumitomo affair turns out to have much in common with a number of other high profile catastrophes in the financial world such as those associated with Barings, NatWest Markets, and the recent AIB losses. Regardless of whether or not these incidents involved market manipulation, they all involved failures of operational controls in the firms for which the traders worked. Members of any exchange will have compliance departments responsible for ensuring that the company is not breaking exchange rules as well as national and international laws, so any attempt at market manipulation is a failure of internal compliance. In addition, compliance is a Group-wide issue across even the most global of financial institutions. So perhaps greater effort directed to supporting internal compliance efforts would be the most effective way of countering abuse of global markets? Exchanges already 'assist' their members in ensuring compliance by performing regular or semi-regular audits of their processes, but the workload involved means that these audits are typically infrequent, allowing long periods when the exchanges are blissfully unaware of what's happening within member processes. Future changes to exchange regulation should be oriented towards requiring that members have adequate internal controls to prevent such operational failures (such as having front and back offices controlled by the same individual), and audits should focus on the competence and strength of these controls. The benefits to members of such attention will go beyond the strict remit of ensuring orderly markets and hence may seem intrusive. But catastrophic failures of exchange members are events that tend to disrupt markets regardless of whether or not the failure was caused by attempts to manipulate a market, so any extra effort to prevent such failures can be seen as falling within the wider remit of exchange regulation to maintain orderly markets. In this article we have argued that global cross-market surveillance and regulation is not the appropriate response to the challenges faced by regulators in the face of increasing globalisation and the fragmentation of trading in related instruments across multiple platforms. 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