ࡱ> =?:;<L bjbjcTcT 8<>>JuwA(A(A(U(U(U(8(1)U(_01(-1-1-1 fhhhhhh$;A( ̥> -1-1t 8 -1A(-1f f)#-1ΓU(֬R/0__ _&_A(@ F _ _  : Chapter 5 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Compounding Periods Other Than Annual Lets examine monthly compounding problems. Future Value Suppose you invest $9,000 today and get an interest rate of 9 percent compounded monthly. How much will you have in 3 years? FV = $9,000(FVIF9%/12,(3)(12)) N3(12) = 36I9/12 = 0.75%PV$9,000Pmt0Cpt FV$11,777.81 You can see I have introduced another variable. This variable, m, is the number of compounding periods per year. If it is monthly compounding, them m is equal to 12. If it is quarterly compounding, them m is equal to 4. The number of years is multiplied by m and the annual percentage rate (APR) is divided by m. Present Value Assume you need $500,000 in 30 years and can earn an interest rate of 6 percent compounded monthly. How much will you have to invest today? PV = $500,000(PVIF6%/12,(30)(12)) N30(12) = 360I6/12 = 0.5%Cpt PV$83,020.96Pmt0FV$500,000 Interest Rate You have $10,000 and need $12,500 in 2.5 years. What interest rate must you earn to accomplish your goal? Assume monthly compounding. $10,000 = $12,500(PVIFr/12,(2.5)(12)) N2.5(12) = 30Cpt I0.7466% = r/12 ! r = (0.7466)(12) = 8.959%PV-$10,000Pmt0FV$12,500 Number of Periods You have $100,000 and need $125,000. Your investment will earn a rate of 15.75 % compounded monthly. How many years before you accomplish your goal? $100,000 = $125,000(PVIF15.75/12,(t)(12)) Cpt N17.11 = t(12) ! t=17.11/12 = 1.43 yearsI15.75/12 = 1.3125% PV-$100,000Pmt0FV$125,000 This method for calculating the different variables in the lump sum equations can be applied to uneven, perpetuity, and annuity cash flows. Uneven Cash Flows Suppose you are going to receive $10,000 in one year, $15,000 in two years and three years, and $20,000 in five years. If the appropriate interest rate is 10 percent, what is the value of the cash flows today? Draw the time line.  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  PV = 10,000(PVIF 1,10%) + 15,000(PVIF 2,10%) + 15,000(PVIF 3,10%) + 20,000(PVIF 5,10%) N = 1N = 2N = 3N = 5I = 10%I = 10%I = 10%I = 10%Cpt PV$9,090.91Cpt PV$12,396.69Cpt PV$11,269.72Cpt PV$12,418.43Pmt = 0Pmt = 0Pmt = 0Pmt = 0FV =10,000FV =15,000FV =15,000FV =20,000 PV0 = $9,090.91 + $12,396.69 + $11,269.72 + $12,418.43 = $45,175.75 What if I want to know the value at year 5? FV5 = 10,000(FVIF 4,10%) + 15,000(FVIF 3,10%) + 15,000(FVIF 2,10%) + 20,000 N = 4N = 3N = 2N = 0I = 10%I = 10%I = 10%I = 10%PV =10,000PV =15,000PV =15,000PV =20,000Pmt = 0Pmt = 0Pmt = 0Pmt = 0Cpt FV =14,641.00Cpt FV =19,965.00Cpt FV =18,150.00Cpt FV =20,000 V5 = $14,641.00 + $19,965.00 + $18,150.00 + $20,000.00 = $72,756.00 Another approach is: FV = PV(FVIFr,t) ! FV = $45,175.75(FVIF10%,5) N = 5I = 10%PV =45,175.75Pmt = 0Cpt FV =72,756.00 Cash Flow Worksheet The cash flow worksheet is another alternative to solving this problem. The cash flow worksheet is initiated with the CF key. Push this key and you see CF0. In this example, the cash flows are: CF00CF110,000F11CF215,000F22CF30F31CF420,000F41I10Cpt NPV45,175.75 Perpetuities A perpetuity is an even cash flow that occurs at even time intervals forever. You will receive $75,000 per year forever with the first payment occurring one year from today. If the interest rate is 6 percent, what is the value of the perpetuity today? Draw the time line.  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  Suppose the perpetuity payments in the previous problem start 9 years from today. What is the value of the cash flows now? Draw the time line. N = 8I = 6%Cpt PV =784,265.46Pmt = 0Cpt FV =1,250,000 Annuities An ordinary annuity is constant cash flow that occurs at constant and even time intervals for a finite time. The cash flows are at the end of the time period. PV of an Annuity Suppose you are offered $10,000 per year for three years. If the interest rate is 10 percent, what is the value of the cash flows today? We know several ways of calculating the present value. Here is one:  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  Lets look at Table A3 in the 10 percent column and the 3 period row. You find 2.4868. You can see that another way to calculate the PV of an annuity is to multiply the factor from Table A3 by the annuity. The Equation Approach The equation for the PV of an annuity is:  EMBED Equation.3  The Table Approach PVA = A(PVIFAr,t) PVA = 10,000(PVIFA10%,3) PVA = 10,000(2.4868) PVA = 24,868 The Calculator Approach N = 3I = 10%Cpt PV =$24,868.52Pmt = 10,000FV =0 PV if the interest rate is 12% = $24,018.31 PV at 8% = $25,770.97 We can use the cash flow worksheet CF00CF110,000F13I10Cpt NPV24,868.52 Future Value of Annuities You are planning to save $5,000 per year for the next 30 years toward retirement with the first payment occurring one year from today. If you can earn an 11 percent interest rate, what will the value of your retirement portfolio be?  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  The Equation Approach  EMBED Equation.3  The Table Approach FVA = A(FVIFAr,t) FVA = 5,000(FVIFA11%,30) FVA = 5,000(199.02) FVA = 995,100 The Calculator Approach N = 30I = 11%PV =0Pmt = 5,000Cpt FV =$995,104.39 We cannot directly use the cash flow worksheet. This calculator does not have a NFV function. You will receive $50,000 per year for 10 years with the first payment occurring 7 years from today. If the appropriate interest rate is 10.5 percent, what is the value of the cash flows today?  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  The Equation V0 = 50,000(PVIFA10.5%,10) (PVIF10.5%,6) N = 10N = 6I = 10.5%I = 10.5%Cpt PV$300,738.64Cpt PV$165,202.10Pmt = 50,000Pmt = 0FV =0FV =$300,738.64 We can use the cash flow worksheet CF00CF10F16CF250,000F210I10.5Cpt NPV165,202.10 Annuity Payments You want to retire in 40 years with $1.5 million. You plan to save an equal amount each year and feel you can earn an interest rate of 11 percent. How much do you have to save each year? The Equation 1,500,000 = A(FVIFA40, 11%) N40I11.00PV0Cpt Pmt $2,578.09FV1,500,000 You want to buy a car that costs $29,000. You plan to put $2,000 down and finance the remainder for 5 years. The dealer offers you a loan with a 4.5 percent annual interest rate with monthly compounding. How much are your payments? The Equation 27,000 = A(PVIFA(5)(12), 4.5%/12) N(5)(12) = 60I4.5/12 = 0.375PV27,000Cpt Pmt $503.36FV0 Annuity Interest Rates You want to have $2 million when you retire in 35 years. You plan to invest $6,000 each year to fund your retirement. What interest rate do you have to earn? The Equation 2,000,000 = A(FVIFA35, r) N35Cpt I10.89PV0Pmt -$6,000FV2,000,000 You plan to put $20,000 down on your new house. The house sells for $200,000 and you want to get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. If the highest payment you can afford is $1,125 per month, what is the highest interest rate you could afford? The Equation 180,000 = A(PVIFA30(12), r/12) N30(12) = 360Cpt I0.5327% = r/12 ! r = (0.5327)(12) = 6.39%PV-180,000Pmt 1,125FV0 Comparing Cash Flows Suppose a quarterback and wide receiver have both signed new contracts. The quarterback s contract calls for an immediate signing bonus of $6 million and an annual salary of $4 million for three years. The wide receivers contract calls for a signing bonus of $3.5 million and an annual salary of $5 million for three years. Assuming all salary payments are at the end of the year and the interest rate is 18 percent, which contract is worth more? The Equation QB: PV = 6,000,000 + 4,000,000(PVIFA3, 18%) N3I18% Cpt PV8,697,091.72Pmt 4,000,000FV0 PV = $8,697,091.72 + 6,000,000 = $14,697,091.72 FV = $24,147,792.00 Wide receiver: PV = 3,500,000 + 5,000,000(PVIFA3, 18%) N3I18% Cpt PV$10,871,364.65Pmt 5,000,000FV0 PV = $10,871,364.65 + 3,500,000 = $14,371,364.65 FV = $23,612,612.00 Difference: Time 0 = $325,727.07 Time 3 = $535,180.00 You are trying to plan for retirement on 10 years. You currently have $200,000 in a bond account and $400,000 in a stock account. You plan to add $10,000 per year at the end of each of the next 10 years to your bond account. The stock account earns 12.5% and the bond account earns 8.5%. When you retire, you plan to withdraw an equal amount for the next 20 years (at the end of each year) and have nothing left. Additionally, when you retire you will transfer your money to an account that earns 7.25%. How much can you withdraw each year? The Bond Account Equation VB10 = $200,000(FVIF10, 8.5%) + 10,000(FVIFA10, 8.5%) N10N10I8.5%I8.5%PV$200,000PVPmt Pmt $10,000Cpt FV452,196.69+Cpt FV148,350.99=600,547.68 Or N10I8.5%PV$200,000Pmt $10,000Cpt FV600,547.68 The Stock Account Equation VS10 = $400,000(FVIF10, 12.5%) N10I12.5%PV$400,000Pmt 0Cpt FV1,298,928.41 You will have $600,547.68 + 1,298,928.41 = $1,899,476.09 The Retirement Equation $1,899,476.09 = A(PVIFA20, 7.25%) N20I7.25%PV$1,899,476.09Cpt Pmt $182,795.78FV0 You are planning to save for the college education of your children. They are two years apart; one will begin college in 15 years and the other will begin college in 17 years. Assume both will be on the four year plan. You estimate each childs education will cost $23,000 per year, payable at the beginning of each school year. The annual interest rate is 6.5 percent. How much must you deposit each year in an account to fund your childrens education? You will make your last deposit when your oldest child enters college. CF023,000CF123,000F11CF246,000F22CF323,000F32I6.5Cpt NPV$157,899.32 N15I6.5%PV0Cpt Pmt $6,529.58FV$157,899.32 Growing Perpetuities You will receive perpetuity with a payment of $10,000 next year. The payment will grow by 2.5 percent per year forever. If the appropriate interest rate is 8 percent, what is the value of the cash flows today?  EMBED Equation.3  Examples with Multiple Annuities I want to withdraw $5,000 a year for the next five years and $8,000 a year for the following five years. I can earn 10.5 percent. How much do I have to invest today? I am asking for the present value of these two annuities. There are several ways to calculate this value. First, I draw the time line.  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  The next step is to write an equation for the present value: V0 = 5,000(PVIFA5, 10.5%) + 8,000(PVIFA5, 10.5%)(PVIF5, 10.5%) N5N5N5I10.5I10.5I10.5Pmt$5,000Pmt$8,000FV$29,942.87cpt PV$18,714.29cpt PV$29,942.87cpt PV$18,175.32 V0 = 18,714.29 + 18,175.32 = $36,889.61 Here is another way N5I10.5cpt PV$29,942.87Pmt$8,000 Now my time line looks like this:  This is the equation: V0 = 5,000(PVIFA5, 10.5%) + 29,942.87(PVIF5, 10.5%) N5I10.5cpt PV$36,889.61Pmt$5,000FV$29,942.87The cash flow worksheet is the last way I will show you. CF00CF15,000F15CF28,000F25I10.5Cpt NPV36,889.61 Lets look at this time line again. I could ask the following question: I want to withdraw $5,000 a year for 5 years and have $29,942.87 left in the investment account. How much do I have to deposit today if I can earn 10.5 percent? I know the answer is $36,889.61 Work this outside of class. Lets look at this problem in a different way. I will invest $36,889.61 today in an asset that will earn 10.5 percent. I plan to withdraw $5,000 a year for the next five years. How much can I withdraw each year for the next 5 years? We know the answer is $8,000 but how would we calculate it? Here is the time line:  36,889.61 = 5,000(PVIFA5, 10.5%) + A(PVIFA5, 10.5%)(PVIF5, 10.5%) N5I10.5PV-$36,889.61Pmt$5,000cpt FV$29,942.87 Now I have the following timeline: And the equation is: 29,942.87 = A(PVIFA5, 10.5%) I solve the equation like this: N5I10.5PV$29,942.87cpt Pmt$8,000FV0 I will invest $36,889.61 today in an asset that will earn 10.5 percent. I plan to withdraw $5,000 a year for the next five years and $8,000 a year after the first five year period. How many years can I withdraw the $8,000? We know the answer is 5 years but how would we calculate it? Here is the time line:  36,889.61 = 5,000(PVIFA5, 10.5%) + 8,000(PVIFAN, 10.5%)(PVIF5, 10.5%) N5I10.5PV-36,889.61Pmt$5,000cpt FV$29,942.87 Now I have the following timeline: And the equation is: 29,942.87 = 8,000(PVIFAN, 10.5%) I solve the equation like this: Cpt N5I10.5PV-$29,942.87Pmt $8,000 I will invest $6,000 a year for the next five years and $10,000 a year for the following five years in an asset that earns 11.25 percent. How much do I have at the end of 10 years? I am asking for the future value of these two annuities. There are several ways to calculate this value. First, I draw the time line.  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  The next step is to write an equation for the future value: V10 = 6,000(FVIFA5, 11.25%)(FVIF5, 11.25%)+ 10,000(FVIFA5, 11.25%) N5N5N5I11.25I11.25I11.25Pmt$6,000PV$37,553.05Pmt$10,000cpt FV$37,553.05cpt FV$63,994.89cpt FV$62,588.42 V10 = 63,994.89 + 62,588.42 = $126,583.31 Here is another way N5I11.25PV0Pmt$6,000cpt FV$37,553.05 Now my time line looks like this:  This is the equation: V10 = 37,553.05(FVIF5, 11.25%) + 10,000(FVIFA5, 11.25%) N5I11.25PV $37,553.05Pmt$10,000cpt FV$126,583.31The cash flow worksheet is the last way I will show you. CF00N10CF16,000F15I11.25CF210,000F25(PV43,588.94Pmt0I11.25Cpt FV126,583.31Cpt NPV43,588.94 Lets look at this problem in a different way. I want $126,583.31 in 10 years. I plan to invest $6,000 a year for the next 5 years in an asset that will earn 11.25 percent. How much must I invest each year for the last 5 years in order to meet my goal? We know the answer is $10,000 but how would we calculate it? Here is the time line:  126,583.31 = 6,000(FVIFA5, 11.25%)(FVIF5, 11.25%)+ A(FVIFA5, 11.25%) N5I11.25PV0Pmt$6,000cpt FV$37,553.05 Now I have the following timeline: And the equation is: 126,583.31 = 37,553.05(FVIF5, 11.25%) + A(FVIFA5, 11.25%) I solve the equation like this: N5I11.25PV-$37,553.05cpt Pmt-$10,000FV126,583.31 I want $126,583.31 in 10 years. I plan to invest $6,000 a year for the next 5 years and then $10,000 a year in an asset that will earn 11.25 percent. How many years must I invest the $10,000? We know the answer is 5 years but how would we calculate it? Here is the time line:  126,583.31 = 6,000(FVIFA5, 11.25%)(FVIFN, 11.25%)+ 10,000(FVIFAN, 11.25%) N5I11.25PV0Pmt$6,000Cpt FV$37,553.05 Now I have the following timeline: And the equation is: 126,583.31 = 37,553.05(FVIFN, 11.25%) + 10,000(FVIFAN, 11.25%) I solve the equation like this: Cpt N5I11.25PV-$37,553.05Pmt -$10,000FV126,583.31 Suppose you borrow $2000 and you are going to make annual payments of $700 each year for 3 years. What is the annual rate of this loan? You want to receive $5000 per year for the next 5 years. How much would you need to deposit today if you can earn 9 percent? What rate would you need to earn if you only have $15,000 to deposit? Suppose you have $15,000 to deposit and can earn 9 percent. How many years could you receive the $5000 payment? How much could you receive each year for 5 years? Effective Annual Rates (EAR) EAR =  EMBED Equation.3  Use the Interest Rate Conversion Worksheet 12% monthly compounding = 12.68% 12% semiannual compounding = 12.36% 12% daily compounding = 12.75% EAR versus APR Suppose you go Vito, a local loan shark, to inquire about the interest rate on loans. You are told the interest will be a 5 percent discount loan. If you borrow $1,000 for one month, the net interest will owe will be: $1,000(1 + .05)4 $1,000 = $215.51. Since this is a discount loan, you will receive $1,000 215.51 = $784.49 today. To help Vito on his bookkeeping, he will require you to make four weekly payments of $250 to repay the loan. If you are brave enough to ask, what APR will Vito say you are paying? What is the EAR you are paying? Assume 52 weeks in a year. Periodic rate: N4Cpt I10.4688 = r/52 ! r = (10.4688)(52) = 544.38%PV-$784.49Pmt$250FV0 Nom544.38%Cpt Eff17,620.24%C/Y52 Inflation (or Why Inflation Doesn t Matter) TodayInterest rateOne year$10010%$110Hot dogs$14%$1.04You can buy100105.7692308 What was your rate of return? The Fisher Effect (1 + R) = (1 + r)(1 + h)  EMBED Equation.3  Approximate Fisher Effect R ( r + h Question You want to buy a motorcycle one year from now, two years from now, and three years from now. The motorcycle currently costs $20,000. You can earn a 10 percent return, and the price of the motorcycle will increase at 4 percent per year. How much do you have to deposit today in order to be able to pay cash for each motorcycle? Nominal cash flows  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  CF00CF120,800F11CF221,632F21CF322,497.28F31I10%Cpt NPV$53,689.32 Real cash flows CF00N4CF120,000F13I5.7692308%orCpt PV$53,689.32I5.7692308%Pmt$20,000Cpt NPV$53,689.32FV0 Assume that it is January 1, 2008. You plan to retire in 40 years on January 1, 2048 and want to plan you dream retirement. You have $5,000 saved in an account that will earn an 11 percent return compounded monthly. When you retire, you want to be able to withdraw $20,000 per month for the next 25 years with the first withdrawal on January 1, 2048. In addition, on January 1, 2051, you want to be able to withdraw $150,000 to track down the original cast members of Beverly Hills 90210 and Buffy the Vampire Slayer to get their autographs. You also want to leave $250,000 to your grandchildren on January 1, 2073. When you retire you will earn an 8 percent return compounded monthly. How much must you deposit each month into the account earning an 11 percent compounded monthly for the next 40 years to make your dream happen assuming the first deposit is at the end of the month and the last deposit is on December 31, 2047? 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