ࡱ> JLIhY q*bjbj:&:& .XLbXLb!TTThhhh,,hffffSSS"$$$$$$$QrHTS1"SSSHffl]IIIS@8fTf"IS"IIVތ@<feH s0*xÒKvÒÒTlSSISSSSSHHSSSSSSSÒSSSSSSSSSB : COUNTING BASICS Suppose you have 3 shirts and 4 pants and want to know how many different outfits you have. Any guesses??? P1P2P3P4S1XXXXS2XXXXS3XXXX Each X is a different outcome, notice there are 12 and even better there are 3 times 4 outfits. This is an example of a basic counting principle in action, namely that if a process is a multi-step process and you want to know how many ways it can be done, multiply how many choices at each step. Examples 1. A pizza restaurant has 3 crusts, 3 sizes, and 14 toppings, how many pizzas are possible? (Note that this is a sort of open-ended question!) 2. Suppose you have 3 pairs of running shoes and 5 pairs of dress shoes, how many ways can you pick a pair of shoes? (This example shows you dont just multiply like a fool.) 3. Suppose there are 8 runners in a race, how many ways can they finish if there are no ties? 4. Suppose you have 7 errands to run, in how many ways can you do them? Examples 3 and 4 have something that appears common enough that we have the following notation: n! = n(n-1)(n-2)1, this is valid for n=a positive integer 0! will show up a lot so we need a number for it, notice it doesnt work in the first formula, so it could be anything, but we would like for example (789)(788!) = ____!, and (3)(2!)=3!, and (2)(1!)=2!, and (1)(0!)=1!, so we want 0!=__ Note: n! is how many ways of arranging n things. Factorials get big in a hurry. Suppose you wanted to start in Denver and find the shortest path to fly your plane to the other 47 state capitals in the lower 48 and return to Denver. How many ways could you arrange those other 47 cities? Would it be possible for a computer to just check all these possibilities and keep track of the shortest total length? It would be easy to enter the distances between all the cities, in fact it would fit on one page. But even if the computer could check 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 trips a second it would still take over 10,000,000,000,000,000,000 times as long as the earth has been around to check all these possibilities! To be able to solve this problem a clever way to eliminate most of these is needed. Harder Question: How many ways to pick k things from n things if order doesnt matter? We will do this with the Colorado Lottery example. In this game you must pick 6 numbers from 42 and the order doesnt matter. At first when we work this out there will be a mistake made, along the lines of trying to count people and instead counting ears. After you realize that each person was counted twice, you must divide number of ears by 2 to get number of people. Step 1. How many ways to pick 1st, 2nd ,3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th numbers? ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ____ This is not the answer because the order doesnt matter and in our calculation the order did matter. (We will fix this soon!) You may have picked the 6 numbers as follows: first second third forth fifth sixth ______ _______ _______ _______ ________ ________ However, this is the same (but we counted it different) as the following: first second third forth fifth sixth ______ _______ _______ _______ ________ ________ and as first second third forth fifth sixth ______ _______ _______ _______ ________ ________ and there are many more that we counted different but should all count the same. How many total ways did we count the outcome of picking these 6 numbers in ANY order? I.e., how many ways of arranging 6 things? We need to divide by this number. So the answer is: (the original wrong answer divided by this number) Now we would like to clean this up, not to get the answer, but to get a nice formula. We will multiply top and bottom by the same number (OK to do) namely36!. The formula is now In general its not picking 6 things from 42, but k things from n things. So if we replace the 6 with a k and the 42 with an n we get:  EMBED Equation.3  how many ways to pick k things from n things if order doesnt matter. This can be worked out on most calculators with an nCr function or can be worked out mostly by hand using the calculator for multiplication and division. It should be noted that because factorials get so big that you could have problems if you calculate using the above formula without reducing. Example: A calculator will probably get 1021 nCr 1019 OK, but if you enter  EMBED Equation.3  it will probably overflow the calculator, but then again you know that  EMBED Equation.3  which will not overflow the calculator. BINOMIAL PROBABILITY n=number of observations or trials which are independent (one trial does not affect any other) two outcomes called success and failure P(success)=p P(failure)=q=1-p We would like to know P(exactly k successes in n trials). Lets do an example with n=5 trials and find the P(exactly 3 success in the 5 trials). We can do this with a tree diagram as on the next page. Every time there is a S the probability will be p and every time there is an F the probability will be q. Lets find 2 separate paths with exactly 3 successes and multiply the ps and qs. What do you get? _______ (should be the same for each path, is it?) The harder part is figuring out how many of these paths are there. If there were 7 such paths we would just multiply the answer above by 7. This is actually like playing the lottery, except instead of 42 balls we have 5 trials, instead of picking 6 lucky balls, we are picking 3 trials to be Ss. Note the rest of the 36 balls will be automatically unlucky balls, and the rest of the 2 trials will automatically be Fs. Why? Write down 5 blanks in a row and pick 3 of them to be Ss. Every way you can do this is a different path in the diagram (and every path in the diagram with exactly 3 Ss will be a possible answer). How many ways can this be done? ________ =_____, can we find all these paths in our example  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  Example: Suppose we have an 80% free throw shooter. A) Find the P(they make exactly 8 out of 10 free throws). B) Find the P(they make at least 8 out of 10 free throws). C) Find the P(they make 8 or less free throws out of 10). D) Find the probability they make exactly 800 out of 1000. E) Find the P(they make at least 810 out of 1000). We can do parts A, B, and C, but will see a problem with the last two parts and return to them shortly. Example: n=25, p=1/3, q=2/3 lets fill in the table and make a histogram. SuccessesProbability(to nearest %) In the histogram make the categories -.5 to .5 and .5 to 1.5, and 1.5 to 2.5 etc. Note the approximate shape of the histogram, namely _________. If np and nq are both at least 10 then we can use the normal to approximate, but we need the mean and standard deviation. Also note that since the normal approximates the histogram with categories above it is better to add or subtract .5 depending on the question. Example: P(x=7) is the area between 6.5 and 7.5. Example: P(x<7) is the area to the left of 6.5. Example: P(x>7) is the area to the right of 7.5. Example: P(x EMBED Equation.3 7) is the area to the left of 7.5. Example: P(x EMBED Equation.3 7) is the area to the right of 6.5. The mean is simple. Example: if you take 100 fair coins and toss them all, on average you would get how many heads? ______, you got this by multiplying what two numbers? _____ and ____, which are n and p. The standard deviation isnt so transparent but can be explained and will later. Here are the formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the binomial:  EMBED Equation.3  and  EMBED Equation.3  Now we can return to the earlier example and do parts D and E. When calculating the mean and standard deviation for 1000 free-throws you may only think the mean makes any sense, but you can also make some sense of the standard deviation. It is very unlikely in data that are close to normal to be more than 3 standard deviations from the mean (99.7% of the data will be within +/- 3 standard deviations). So it is very unlikely that an 80% free-throw shooter will make more than _________ free throws out of 1000? In a tree diagram for n binomial trials the number C(n,x) or n nCr x or  EMBED Equation.3  represents the number of paths with exactly x successes. In the binomial setting, np represents the average number of successes, while nq represents the average number of failures. 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