ࡱ> RTQY -bjbjWW ==&]^^^^8,&d(,bdddddd$9"^^,^8,b^^^^b% b,d1LChapter 14. Bond Prices and Yields Bond Characteristics Face or par value Coupon rate Semiannual Payment Zero coupon bond Compounding and payments Accrued Interest : Flat price VS Invoice (or Full) Price Indenture : Contract between the issuer and bondholder Different Issuers of Bonds U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds : Minimum denominations of $1,000 Corporations : Registered VS. Bearer Bonds Municipalities International Corporations : Yankee, Samurai, Bulldog, Eurodollar bonds. Innovative Bonds Indexed Bonds : Linked with the general price index (i.e., with inflation rate) Floaters and Reverse Floaters Provisions of Bonds Secured or unsecured Call provision : Yield to Call [ Problem 19 : page 429] Convertible provision : Conversion ratio (i.e., 1 bond = 40 shares) Put provision (putable bonds) Sinking funds : Spread the payment burden over several periods. Preferred Stock Fixed Dividend Cumulative and Non-Cumulative No tax-deductible benefit to the issuing firm Tax-deductible benefit to the purchasing firm, like bonds. Default Risk and Ratings Rating companies Moodys, Standard & Poors, Duff and Phelps, Fitch Rating Categories Investment grade Speculative grade : Original-issue-junk VS. Fallen Angels. Default Risk Premium Difference between YTM of a risky bond and that of an otherwise-identical govt bond. Risk Structure of interest rates [ Figure 14.8] Factors Used by Rating Companies Coverage ratios : Times-Interest-Earned Ratio [= EBIT / Int. Exp] Leverage ratios : Debt-to-Equity Ratio Liquidity ratios : Current Ratio Profitability ratios : ROE, ROA Cash flow to debt Protection Against Default Sinking funds Subordination of future debt Dividend restrictions Collateral [ ex. Debenture : Bonds with no specific collateral.] Bond Pricing PB = Price of the bond Ct = interest or coupon payments T = number of periods to maturity y = semi-annual discount rate or the semi-annual yield to maturity Solving for Price: 10-yr, 8% Coupon Bond, Face = $1,000 Bond Prices and Yields Prices and Yields (required rates of return) have an inverse relationship Price of a bond = PV of Coupon Payment + PV of Face Value When yields get very high, the value of the bond will be very low When yields approach zero, the value of the bond approaches the sum of the cash flows Prices, Coupon Rates and Yield to Maturity Interest rate that makes the present value of the bonds payments equal to its price. Solve the bond formula for r Yield to Maturity Example : 8% annual coupon, 30YR, P0 = $1276.76 YTM = Bond Equivalent Yield = 6% (3%*2) Effective Annual Yield: (1.03)2 - 1 = 6.09% Current Yield = Annual Interest / Market Price = $80 / $1276.76= 6.27% Yield to Call : 8% annual coupon, 30YR, P0 = $1150, Callable in 10 YR, Call price = $1100 YTC = 6.64% Concept Check Question 5 on Page 419 [ 10YR, Call Price $1100] YTM0 Coupon P0 Price at 6% Capital Gain Bond 1 7% 6% 928.94 1000 $71.06 Bond 2 7% 8% 1071.06 1148.77 $28.94* * Bond will be called at $1100 Realized Yield versus YTM Reinvestment Assumptions YTM equals the rate of return realized over the life of the bond if all coupons are reinvested at an interest rate equal to YTM. Uncertain reinvestment future rate. Holding Period Return Changes in rates affects returns Reinvestment of coupon payments Change in price of the bond Re-Investment Risk and Re-Financing Risk [Corporate Finance] Holding-Period Return: Single Period HPR = [ I + ( P1 P0 )] / P0 where I = interest payment P1 = price in one period P0 = purchase price Holding-Period Example Coupon = 8% YTM = 8% N=10 years Semiannual Compounding P0 = $1000 In six months the rate falls to 7% P1 = $1068.55 HPR = [40 + ( 1068.55 - 1000)] / 1000 HPR = 10.85% (semiannual) Holding-Period Return: Multiperiod Requires actual calculation of reinvestment income Solve for the Internal Rate of Return using the following: Future Value: sales price + future value of coupons Investment: purchase price After-Tax Return IRS uses a constant yield method, which ignores any changes in interest rate. I=10%, 30YR zero coupon, ( P0 = 57.31 One Year Later I=10%, 29YR zero coupon, ( P1 = 63.04 : If you sell it, $5.73 is taxable as ordinary income One Year Later I=9.9%, 29YR zero coupon, ( P1 = 64.72 : If you sell it, $7.41 is taxable. [5.73 as ordinary income + 1.68 as Cap. Gain] ( If not sold, $5.73 is taxable as ordinary income in either case. Coupon Bond Case : The same logic applies Concept Check Question 9 : On page 426 Chapter 15. The Term Structure of Interest Rates Overview of Term Structure of Interest Rates Relationship between yield to maturity and maturity : Yield Curve Information on expected future short term rates can be implied from yield curve Three major theories are proposed to explain the observed yield curve Yield Curves Relationship between yield to maturity and maturity Expected Interest Rates in Coming Years (Table 15.1 and Figure 15.3) Assume that all participants in the market expect this. Then, we can get the prices of the bonds. R: One year rate in each year Y : Yield to Maturity (Current Spot Rate) 0R1 1R2 2R3 3R4 8% 10% 11% 11% Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 8% 8.995% 9.660% 9.993% Forward Rates from Observed Long-Term Rates Definition of Forward Rate : Interest rate which makes two spot rates consistent with each other. Estimatable from two spot rates. Two alternatives [2 Year investment horizon] A1. Invest in a 2-Year zero-coupon bond A2. Invest in a 1-Year zero-coupon bond. After 1 Yr, reinvest the proceeds in 1-Yr bond. A1. (1+0.08995)2 A2. (1+0.08)1 ( (1+ 1F2 ) 1F2 : one year forward rate between Y1 and Y2. Example of Forward Rates using Table 15.2 Numbers : Upward Sloping Yield Curve 1-YR Forward Rates 1F2 [(1.08995)2 / 1.08] - 1 = ? 2F3 [(1.0966)3 / (1.08995)2] - 1 = ? 3F4 [(1.09993)4 / (1.0966)3] 1 = ? Theories of Term Structure Expectations Theory, Liquidity Preference, Market Segmentation Theory Expectations Theory Observed long-term rate is a function of todays short-term rate and expected future short-term rates The expectations of investors about the future interest rate decide the demand for bonds of different maturities. Market expectations of the future spot rate is equal to the foward rate. E(1R2)= 1F2 Long-term and short-term securities are perfect substitutes Forward rates that are calculated from the yield on long-term securities are market consensus expected future short-term rates Liquidity Premium Theory Investors will demand a premium for the risk associated with long-term bonds Yield curve has an upward bias built into the long-term rates because of the risk premium Forward rates contain a liquidity premium and are not equal to expected future short-term rates 1F2 = E(1R2) + Liquidity Premium The liquidity premium is necessary to compensate the risk averse investors for taking uncertainty. 1 Year Investment Horizon 7% x % 8% I will hold 2 year bond only if E(1R2) < 1F2 A positive liquidity premium (i.e., Forward rate greater than expected spot rate) rewards investors for purchasing longer term bonds by offering them higher long-term interest rates. In other words, to induce investors to hold the longer-term bonds, the market sets the higher forward rate than the expected future spot rate. Market Segmentation and Preferred Habitat Short- and long-term bonds are traded in distinct markets, which determines the various rates. Observed rates are not directly influenced by expectations Preferred Habitat Investors will switch out of preferred maturity segments if premiums are adequate Investors prefer a specific maturity ranges. Chapter 16. Fixed-Income Portfolio Management Managing Fixed Income Securities: Basic Strategies Active strategy Trade on interest rate predictions Trade on market inefficiencies Passive strategy Control risk Balance risk and return Bond Pricing Relationships Inverse relationship between price and yield An increase in a bonds yield to maturity results in a smaller price decline than the gain associated with a decrease in yield Long-term bonds tend to be more price sensitive than short-term bonds As maturity increases, price sensitivity increases at a decreasing rate Price sensitivity is inversely related to a bonds coupon rate Price sensitivity is inversely related to the yield to maturity at which the bond is selling Duration A measure of the effective maturity of a bond The weighted average of the times until each payment is received, with the weights proportional to the present value of the payment Duration is shorter than maturity for all bonds except zero coupon bonds Duration is equal to maturity for zero coupon bonds Duration: Calculation Duration Calculation: Example using Table 16.3 Duration/Price Relationship Price change is proportional to duration and not to maturity DP/P = -D x [D(1+y) / (1+y)] D* = modified duration D* = D / (1+y) DP/P = - D* x Dy Rules for Duration Rule 1 The duration of a zero-coupon bond equals its time to maturity Rule 2 Holding maturity constant, a bond s duration is higher when the coupon rate is lower Rule 3 Holding the coupon rate constant, a bonds duration generally increases with its time to maturity Rule 4 Holding other factors constant, the duration of a coupon bond is higher when the bonds yield to maturity is lower Rule 5 The duration of a level perpetuity is equal to: [(1+y) / y] Rule 6 The duration of a level annuity is equal to: [(1+y) / y] [T / ( (1-y)T-1 )] Rule 7 The duration for a corporate bond is equal to: Passive Management Bond-Index Funds Immunization of interest rate risk Net worth immunization Duration of assets = Duration of liabilities Target date immunization Holding Period matches Duration Cash flow matching and dedication Duration and Convexity Correction for Convexity SKIP : 16.4, 16.5 and 16.6 [page 482-491] PAGE 1 PAGE 5  EMBED Equation.3  $%:L}#fzijz,i k H I d   . +,'(+,56 FGl{| 5B*CJ CJeh CJH* B*CJH*59B*CJH* >*B*CJ 9B*CJ B*CJH*CJB*CJ 59B*CJ 5B*CJJ$%:LYl}#1cGef & F & F & F & F v hv & F  & F$ & F$$d!%d$&d!'d$$%:LYl}#1cGefzĹwlaVPH=         "  k  z          U               fz )ijz,=p9 i j k  & F  & Fh$ & F$ & F & F$ & F )ijz,=p9 i j k ~sh]RJB?<de    E                        =  [      k  6 H I d r - Q 0 j ~xrlfc`XRG  $           #  "  !    5  U  v        k  6 H I d r - Q 0 j   .  & F$ & Fj   . 9'(QtpyvspmjgbZOG    (  .MNt        i         b   '  #  &e  %. 9'(Qtp & F  !8hh$ & F  & F $ & F & Fp FGl .Q`ź}wqke_\TI  .   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