ࡱ> 7923456E[ qbjbj 8ΐΐ0 0 ss+++???? Kl?i}t"z1%1%1%I%N>L@VA`|||||||$~^}+F;N>FF}ss1%I%m#}LLLF$s<1%+I%|LF|LLw |x|1%%L,?GTy:|9}0i}yz݁HD݁tx|݁+x|\ABLCDD=AAA}}=KAAAi}FFFF݁AAAAAAAAA0 9: A Project report on capital budgeting at (Krishna Dish Ends pvt ltd) BY This project submitted in Partial fulfillment of the requirement For the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION  (Affiliated to Osmania University, Hyderabad) APPROVED BY A.I.C.T.E CERTIFICATE (M.B.A) Finance, has prepared A Project Report on Capital Budgeting., in Krishna Dish Ends Pvt. Ltd., as par the curriculum of Masters Degree in Business Administration (OSMANIA UNIVERSITY) for the academic year (Internal guide) Dated: _____________ Place: ______________ CERTIFICATE student of final year Masters of Business Administration (M.B.A) Finance, has prepared A Project Report on Capital Budgeting., in Krishna Dish Ends Pvt. Ltd., as par the curriculum of Masters Degree in Business Administration (OSMANIA UNIVERSITY) for the academic year (Principal) Place Date R.R DIST CERTIFICATE OF THE GUIDE This is to certify that the project work titled A PROJECT REPORT ON CAPITAL BUDGETING with regard to KRISHNA DISH ENDS PVT. LTD, is a bonafide work of in partial fulfillment for the award of degree of MBA Finance (Osmania University) under my guidance. This project work is original and not submitted earlier for the award of any degree / diploma or associate ship of any University / Institution. (Guide) Place: ________________ Date: _________________ Student Declaration project work titled A PROJECT REPORT ON CAPITAL BUDGETING with regard to KRISHNA DISH ENDS PVT. LTD, is the original work done by me and submitted to the (Osmaina University) in partial fulfillment of requirements for the award of Master of Business Administration in Finance (Area of Specialization) under the supervision Place: R.R.DIST Date: __________ ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I express my sincere thanks to to prepare this project. (Faculty)., for their valuable guidance in this endeavor. They have been a constant source of inspiration and I sincerely thank them for their suggestions and help to prepare this report. I express my deep sense of gratitude to my external guide, of Finally, it is my foremost duty to thank all my respondents, who helped me to complete my fieldwork without which this project would not have been possible. Date: __________ CONTENTS index PAGE NO chapter i Introduction 1 - 3 OBJECTIVES of the Study 4 - 5 chapter II COMPANY Profile 6 - 13 chapter - III 4. METHODOLOGY 14 - 15 chapter - IV 5. THEORY of CAPITAL BUDGETING 16 - 17 6. capital budgeting process 18 - 25 7. investment criteria 26 - 35 8. phases of capital budgeting 36 - 43 9. kinds of capital budgeting Decisions 44 - 46 10. DIFFICULTIES in capital budgeting 47 - 48 11. data required 49 - 52 chapter v 12. ANALYSIS 53 - 63 chapter - vi 13. CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONS 64 - 65 DECISION 66 - 67 bibliography 68 - 69 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION Capital Budgeting is perhaps the most important Issue in Corporate Finance. How a firm finance its investments that they has to make or to define the business or businesses that it wants to be. Thats why the process of Capital budgeting is also referred to as strategic asset allocation. Once the managers of a firm choose the business or businesses they want to be in, they have to develop a plan to invest in buildings, machineries, equipments, research and development, go downs, showrooms, distribution network, information infrastructure, brands, and other long lived assets. This is the capital budgeting process. Considerable managerial time, attention, and energy are devoted to identify, evaluate, and implement investment projects. When you look at an investment project from the financial point of view, you should focus on the magnitude, timing, and risk ness of cash flows associated within. In addition, consider the options embedded in the investment project. CHAPTER I OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 4 Objectives of this study -: Main Objective: - The main Objective of the project is to suggest the company weather to establish a new manufacturer Processed Equipments of Pharmaceuticals at Vishakapatnam or not. -: Sub Objectives: - a) To study the financial feasibility of the proposal b) To find out the benefits that the company is going to get from the new projects. c) To critically evaluate the project to arrive at the right conclusion d) Estimate of post scenario of the company e) Estimating of assets & tools required for this new project 5 CHAPTER II COMPANY PROFILE 6 Company profile Krishna Dish Ends established in the year 1984, as a manufacturer of Processed Equipments in the field of Pharmaceuticals, Bulk Drugs, Oil Industries. Krishna Dish Ends undertakes a single point responsibility on turnkey basis for all the related services including Technical Feasibility studies, Basic Engineering, Detailed Engineering, Project Engineering and Management, Quality Assurance, Project Commissioning, Validation and Post Project Documentation and maintenance after commissioning. Strongly backed up by our own manufacturing capabilities, a full-fledged design and CAD Center, a strong team of technical experts and project team, Krishna provides timely delivery of quality products systems to the projects. Infrastructure Krishna Dish Ends has a covered area of 8400 sq.m at APIE Balanagar, Sanathnagar, and CITD Road, Hyderabad. The totally integrated fabrication, machining and glass lining facilities ensure timely delivery of quality products. In addition to a captive 2 MW wind farm, it has an adequately sized DG set to ensure uninterrupted power supply. Design and Engineering The state-of-the-art CAD facilities and experienced engineers not only automate the day-to-day engineering drawing requirements, but also innovate and improve the versatility of the product. In addition to standard equipment, Krishna designs and manufactures equipment for specific customer applications or process performance improvement. 7 QUALITY POLICY 13 CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY 14 Methodology of the study The information required for successful completion of the project has been collected through primary and secondary sources. Primary Sources of information is through interviewing, meetings and etc. with the various officials and employees of company (name). Secondary Sources of information are the balance sheets and other financial statements of the company. 15 CHAPTER IV THEORY OF CAPITAL BUDGETING 16 CAPITAL BUDGETING I) Meaning: Capital budgeting is a required managerial tool. One duty of a financial manager is to choose investments with satisfactory cash flows and rates of return. Therefore, a financial manager must be able to decide whether an investment is worth undertaking and be able to choose intelligently between two or more alternatives. To do this, a sound procedure to evaluate, compare, and select projects is needed. This procedure is called capital budgeting. II) Importance: Capital budgeting decisions are crucial to a firm's success for several reasons. First, capital expenditures typically require large outlays of funds. 17 CHAPTER IV CAPITAL BUDGETING PROCESS 18 Capital budgeting process The capital budget process is usually a multi-step process, including: Identification of potential investment opportunities Assembling of proposed investments Inventory of Capital Assets; Developing a Capital Investment Plan (CIP); Developing a Multi-Year CIP; Developing the Financing Plan; and, Implementing the Capital Budget. A central element of the capital budget and the multi-year capital investment plan is the 25 CHAPTER IV INVESTMENT CRITERIA 26 INVESTMENT CRITERIA A wide range of criteria has been suggested to judge the worthwhile ness of investment projects. The important investment criteria, classified into two broad categoriesnon-discounting criteria and discounting criteriaare shown in exhibit subsequent sections describe and evaluate these criteria in some detail: INVESTMENT CRITERIA DISCOUNTING NON-DISCOUNTING CRITERIA CRITERIA NET PRESENT INTERNAL RATE MODIFIED INTERNAL PROFITABILITY PAYBACK DISCOUNTED PAYBACK VALUE OF RETURN RATE OF RETURN INDEX PERIOD PERIOD  27 Table 1: Comparing Methods of Valuation under Various Scenarios MethodIndependent ProjectsMutually Exclusive Projects*Capital Rationing*Scale DifferencesIRRAcceptableNot AcceptableNot AcceptableNot AcceptableMIRRAcceptableNot AcceptableNot AcceptableNot AcceptableNPVAcceptableAcceptableAcceptableAcceptablePaybackNot AcceptableNot AcceptableNot AcceptableNot AcceptableDiscountedNot AcceptableNot AcceptableNot AcceptableNot Acceptable Basic Data Expected Net Cash FlowYearProject LProject S0 1 2 3 (100) 10 60 80 (100) 70 50 20 28 The Six Criteria There are six criteria that we will use: Non-discounting criteria The payback period The discounted payback period Discounting criteria Internal rate of return (IRR) Modified internal rate of return (MIRR) Net present value (NPV) Profitability index (PI) Non-discounting criteria The Payback Period: The payback period measures the time that it takes to recoup the cost of the investment. If the cash flows are an annuity, then we can simply divide the cost by the annual cash flow to determine the payback period. Otherwise, as in the example, we subtract the cash flows from the cost until the remainder is zero The shorter the payback period, the better. Generally, firms will have some maximum allowable payback period against which all investments are compared. For our example project, we will subtract the cash flows from the initial outlay until the entire cost is recovered: Problems with the Payback Period The payback period suffers from two primary problems that limit its usefulness in evaluating investments: It ignores the time value of money It ignores all cash flows beyond the payback period Still, it has a couple of redeeming qualities It is quick and easy to calculate It gives a measure of the liquidity of the projectPayback period = Expected number of years required to recover a projects cost. 29 Project L Expected Net Cash FlowYearProject LProject S0 1 2 3 (100) 10 60 80 (100) (90) (30) 50PaybackL = 2 + 30/80 years = 2.4 years. PaybackS = 1.6 years. Weaknesses of Payback: 1. Ignores the time value of money. This weakness is eliminated with the discounted payback method. Ignores cash flows occurring after the payback period. The Discounted Payback Period The discounted payback period is exactly the same as the regular payback period, except that we use the present values of the cash flows in the calculation. Since our required return (WACC) is 12%, the timeline with the PVs looks like this: Problems with Discounted Payback The discounted payback period solves the time value problem, but it still ignores the cash flows beyond the payback period. Therefore, you may reject projects that have large cash flows in the outlying years that make it very profitable. In other words, any measure of payback can lead to a focus on short-run profits at the expense of larger long-term profits. 30 Discounted Payback - is almost the same as payback, but before you figure it, you first discount your cash flows. You reduce the future payments by your  HYPERLINK "http://teachmefinance.com/../../../../../costofcapital.html" cost of capital. Why? Because it is money you will get in the future, and will be less valuable than money today. (See  HYPERLINK "http://teachmefinance.com/timevalueofmoney.html" Time Value of Money if you don't understand). For this example, let's say the cost of capital is 10%. YearCash flowDiscounted Cash flowRunning Total0-8000-8000-8000137333397-4607232002645-1962316001202-76041066728-325533331299 So we break even sometime in the 5th year. When? Negative Balance / Cash flow from the Break Even Year=When in the final year we break even-32 / 331 =.096 So using the Discounted Payback Method we break even after 4.096 years. 31 DISCOUNTING CRITERIA a) The Internal Rate of Return The internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate that equates the present value of the cash flows and the cost of the investment Usually, we cannot calculate the IRR directly; instead we must use a trial and error process. For our example, the IRR is found by solving the following: Problems with the IRR The IRR is a popular technique primarily because it is a percentage, which is easily compared to the WACC. However, it suffers from a couple of flaws: The calculation of the IRR implicitly assumes that the cash flows are reinvested at the IRR. This may not always be realistic. Percentages can be misleading (would you rather earn 100% on a $100 investment, or 10% on a $10,000 investment?)  EMBED Equation.3 . Project L:    8.47  43.02   48.57 $ 0.06 ( $0 IRRL = 18.1% IRRS = 23.6% 32 If the projects are independent, accept both because IRR > k. If the projects are mutually exclusive, accept Project S since IRRS > IRRL. Note: IRR is independent of the cost of capital. b) The Net Present Value The Net Present Value (NPV) Calculator: The calculation of  HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/npv.asp" net present value is useful when preparing a capital budgeting project. With this calculator, you can determine whether the total  HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presentvalue.asp" present value of a project's expected future cash flows is enough to satisfy the initial cost. In the calculator fields below enter your required  HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discountrate.asp" discount rate, also known as the  HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofcapital.asp" cost of capital or required rate of return. This is the return you require for the project to be an attractive investment. Secondly, enter the length of the project (in years) and the amount required to initiate the project. Finally, enter any projected net cash flows to be received throughout the life of the project. (If you project any cash outflows to be greater than inflows, enter a negative number for that net cash flow.) The net present value (NPV) is the difference between the present value of the cash flows (the benefit) and the cost of the investment (IO): The NPV: An Example NPV is calculated by subtracting the initial outlay (cost) from the present value of the cash flows Note that the discount rate is the WACC (12% in this example)  EMBED Equation.3  33  Project L: 9.09 49.59 60.11 NPVL = $ 18.79 NPVS = $19.98 If the projects are independent, accept both. If the projects are mutually exclusive, accept Project S since NPVS > NPVL. Note: NPV declines as k increases, and NPV rises as k decreases. d) The Profitability Index The profitability index is the same as the NPV, except that we divide the PVCF by the initial outlay: E. PROFITABILITY INDEX (PI) The profitability index, or PI, method compares the present value of future cash inflows with the initial investment on a relative basis. Therefore, the PI is the ratio of the present value of cash flows (PVCF) to the initial investment of the project.  EMBED Equation.3  In this method, a project with a PI greater than 1 is accepted, but a project is rejected when its PI is less than Note that the PI method is closely related to the NPV approach. In fact, if the net present value of a project is positive, the PI will be greater than 1. On the other hand, if the net present value is negative, the project will have a PI of less than 1. The same conclusion is reached, therefore, whether the net present value or the PI is used. 34 In other words, if the present value of cash flows exceeds the initial investment, there is a positive net present value and a PI greater than 1, indicating that the project is acceptable. PI is also known as a benefit/cash ratio. Project L    EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  Accept project if PI > 1. Reject if PI < 1.0 35 CHAPTER - IV Phases of capital budgeting 36 Phases of capital budgeting 1. Planning: The long term or short term capital budgeting plan represents a blue print of what a firm proposes to do in the future typically it covers a period of three to ten years moat commonly it spans a period of five years naturally, planning over such an extended time horizon tends to be in fairly aggregative terms. While there is considerable variation in the scope, degree of formality, and level of sophistication in financial planning acres firms, most corporate financial plans have certain common elements. These are Economic assumptions: The financial plan is based on certain assumptions about the economic environment (interest rate, inflation rate, growth rate, exchange rate, and so on). Sales forecast: The sales forecast is typically the starting point of the capital forecasting exercise. Most capital variables are related to the sales figure. 2. Analysis: The Three Stages of Capital Budgeting Analysis Capital Budgeting Analysis is a process of evaluating how we invest in capital assets; i.e. assets that provide cash flow benefits for more than one year. We are trying to answer the following question: Will the future benefits of this project be large enough to justify the investment given the risk involved? It has been said that how we spend our money today determines what our value will be tomorrow. Therefore, we will focus much of our attention on present values so that we can understand how expenditures today influence values in the future. A very popular approach to looking at present values of projects is discounted cash flows or DCF. However, we will learn that this approach is too narrow for properly evaluating a project. 37 We will include three stages within Capital Budgeting Analysis: Decision Analysis for Knowledge Building Option Pricing to Establish Position Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) for making the Investment Decision Different basic capital budgeting analysis Horizontal analysis: - Analysis involves the computation of amount changes and percentage change Vertical analysis: - uses percentage to show the relationship of the different items to the total in a single statement sets a total figure equal to 100%and compute the percentage of each components of that figure Trend analysis: - percentage changes are calculated for several successive years instead of between two years Ratio analysis: - represent meaningful relationship between two numbers financial ratios have been classified into five categories as follows Liquidity ratio: - Current ratio=current assets /current liability Quick ratio=quick assets*/current liability *Excluding inventories Leverage ratio: - Debt equity ratio=debt/equity Interest coverage ratio=PBIT+DEP/interest on debt DSCR=[(PAT+DEP+INT ON DEBT)/(INT ON DEBT+installment of debt Turnover ratio:- Inventory turnover ratio=cost of good sold/average inventory Fixed asset turnover ratio= net assets/average net fixed assets Total assets turnover ratio=net sales/average total assets 38 Profitability ratio: - Grass profit margin=grass profit / met sales Net profit margin= net profit /sales Return on total assets=profit after tax/average total assets Valuation ratio: - EPS=equity earning/ number of share holders PER=MPPS/EPS Yield ratio=dividend+price change/initial price I 3. Financial analysis Financial analysis seeks to ascertain whether the proposed project will be financially viable in the sense of being able to meet the burden of servicing debt and whether the proposed project will satisfy the return expectations of those the shareholders (owners of the firms). The aspects, which have to be looked into while conducting financial appraisal in ICT projects, are: Investment outlay analysis Means of financing Cost of Capital Projected profitability- Break-even point Cash flows of the project Level of risk a) Means of financing Means by which a budget deficit is financed or a surplus is used. Means of financing are not included in the budget totals. The primary means of financing is borrowing from the public. In general, the cumulative amount borrowed from the public (debt held by the public) will increase if there is a deficit and decrease if there is a surplus, although other factors can affect the amount that the government must borrow. 39 Those factors, known as other means of financing, include reductions (or increases) in the government's cash balances, seignior age, changes in outstanding checks, changes in accrued interest costs included in the budget but not yet paid, and cash flows reflected in credit financing accounts. b) The Cost of Capital Cost of Capital, Discounts Rates, and The required Rate of Return We know how to do capital budgeting problems, but what about the discount rate? We also know that the discount rate will depend on the risk of the project: Investors will require a higher required rate of return for riskier projects Investors will look at projects as portfolios and therefore the systematic risk is the correct measure of risk. Any unsystematic risk can be diversified away, and no compensation for this is necessary. Required rate of return, appropriate discount rate, and cost of capital are different names for the same concept. The cost of capital depends on the risk, and hence primarily on the use of the funds, not the source. Firm's overall cost of capital reflects the required rate of return on the firm's assets as a whole. This overall cost of capital is called the weighted average cost of capital, and reflects the costs of debt, equity, and preferred stock. c) Investment outlay Analyses Having the exclusive rights to a product or project is valuable, even if the product or project is not viable today. 40 The value of these rights increases with the volatility of the underlying business. The cost of acquiring these rights (by buying them or spending money on development - R&D, for instance) has to be weighed off against these benefits. Projected profitability Refers to the amount of profit received relative to the amount invested, often measured by a  HYPERLINK "http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/rate+of+profit" rate of profit or  HYPERLINK "http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/rate+of+return+on+investment" rate of return on investment. Economists and accountants measure profit in slightly different ways. What is commonly known as profit is the difference between  HYPERLINK "http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/sales" sales and  HYPERLINK "http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/cost" costs by a business enterprise? However, the term is also used more generally to refer to  HYPERLINK "http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/value+added" value added, which only be the same when all the factors of production have been credited their full  HYPERLINK "http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/opportunity+cost" opportunity cost. Break-even point Definition The price at which an  HYPERLINK "http://www.investorwords.com/3477/options.html" option's cost is equal to the  HYPERLINK "http://www.investorwords.com/3870/proceeds.html" proceeds acquired by  HYPERLINK "http://www.investorwords.com/1826/exercising.html" exercising the option. For a  HYPERLINK "http://www.investorwords.com/670/call_option.html" call option, it is the  HYPERLINK "http://www.investorwords.com/4780/strike_price.html" strike price plus the  HYPERLINK "http://www.investorwords.com/3785/premium.html" premium paid. For a  HYPERLINK "http://www.investorwords.com/3971/put_option.html" put option, it is the strike price minus the premium paid Breakeven analysis a management control that approximates how much you must sell in order to cover your costs with NO profit and NO loss. Profit comes after breakeven. The following formula will help in the calculation of your breakeven sales volume level: 41 Breakeven=Fixed Costs */ Contribution Margin % **=250 000/15%=1 666 667 * Fixed Costs are those costs that are not variable as a result of the sales activity. For example, rent of the building or insurance costs may be fairly constant no matter how sales vary, while, expenses such as advertising and usage of shop or store supplies will vary with sales. ** Contribution Margin = Revenue - Variable Costs. In a retail business, the gross margin % is generally recognized as the Contribution Margin %. Gross Margin equals the difference between the Sales and the Cost of the Sales. In this example, $1 667 are the sales that are required to cover fixed costs of $250 000 and a margin of 15 percent, with nothing left over for profit. If you now wanted to calculate the sales that are required to now build in a profit factor, add the profit factor you want to allow for to the fixed costs. If in this example, the fixed costs are $250 000 and you want a $150 000 profit, add the two together and then apply the breakeven formula to this. Breakeven=(Fixed Costs + Profit Margin) / Contribution Margin %=(250 000 + $150 000) / 15%=400 000 / 15%=2 666 667 If this was a small manufacturing company and you wanted to calculate how many unit sales you need to breakeven, you could divide the breakeven sales volume by the unit-selling price. For example, if the unit sells for 10, the breakeven unit sales before a profit is allowed for is 166 667 units and after a profit is allowed for, 266 667 units 42 f) Projects Cash Flow You have to keep the schedule of your expenditure in-line with your income throughout the various stages of your project. Preparing a cash flow schedule is especially important if you will be receiving income across several stages through out your project's duration (development grant, ticket door or art work sales, program advertising, pre-sold tickets or workshop attendance fees, etc). By preparing a cash flow chart you will be able to schedule your expenditure in line with your project's income as it fluctuates from week to week g) Level of Risk A big question that companies have to deal with is, "What is enough security?" This can be restated as, "What is our acceptable risk level?" These two questions have an inverse relationship. You can't know what constitutes enough security unless you know your necessary baseline risk level. To set an enterprise wide acceptable risk level for a company, a few things need to be investigated and understood. A company must understand its federal and state legal requirements, its regulatory requirements, its business drivers and objectives, and it must carry out a risk and threat analysis. (I will dig deeper into formalized risk and threat analysis processes in a later article, but for now we will take a broad approach.) The result of these findings is then used to define the company's acceptable risk level, which is then outlined in security policies, standards, guidelines and procedures.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://media.techtarget.com/searchSecurity/images/spacer.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://media.techtarget.com/searchSecurity/images/spacer.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://media.techtarget.com/searchSecurity/images/spacer.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Although there are different methodologies for risk management, the core components of any risk analysis is made up of the following: Identify company assets Assign a value to each asset Identify each asset's vulnerabilities and associated threats Calculate the risk for the identified assets 43 CHAPTER IV KINDS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING DECISIONS 44 KINDS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING DECISIONS There are basically three different kinds of decisions in capital budgeting they are as follows The Option to Expand/Take Other Projects Taking a project today may allow a firm to consider and take other valuable projects in the future. Thus, even though a project may have a negative NPV, it may be a project worth taking if the option it provides the firm (to take other projects in the future) provides a more-than-compensating value. These are the options that firms often call strategic options and use as a rationale for taking on negative NPV or even negative return projects. Mutually Exclusive Projects In many cases, a firm will be faced with a choice of between mutually exclusive investment projects. These are cases in which the firm can undertake only one of the potential projects. For example, a firm may be considering whether to construct an office building or a shopping mall on a parcel of land, or deciding whether to refurbish an old apartment building or turn it into a parking garage. In this case, the NPV rule is to undertake the project with the largest NPV, so long as it is positive. Example 3.8 A manufacturer is considering purchasing one of two machines, A and B. The cash flows of each of the projects are represented below on a time line. The projects required rate of return is 10 percent. Since these projects are mutually exclusive, which proposal (if any) should the manufacturer choose? 45 Project A Year012345Cash Flow-3,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,000Project B Year012345Cash Flow-2,000700700700700700 The NPV computations are:  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.duke.edu/~charvey/Classes/ba350_1997/vcf2/vcfii03.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Since these are mutually exclusive projects and both have NPV > 0, we take the project with the highest NPV. Project A is thus the preferred alternative. 46 CHAPTER IV Difficulties in capital budgeting 47 Difficulties in Capital Budgeting General difficulties where we get across Ensuring that forecasts are consistent (across departments) Eliminating (reducing) conflicts of interest Reducing forecast bias: the proportion of proposed projects that have a positive NPV is independent of the estimated opportunity cost of capital. Bottom-up and top-down planning is necessary. Control projects in progress, Post-audit afterwards Try hard to measure incremental cash flows--when you can Evaluate performance: actual versus projected; actual versus absolute standard of the true cost of capital Measurement problem: While calculating the NPV, IRR, PAY BACK PPERIOD, AND PROFITABILITY INDEX, we have to be vary much careful with the calculations values throw it is a very difficult job to remember many values at a time but we have to be care full because it will effect on the total output of project in decision making Risk and uncertainty: Different capital investment proposals have different degrees of risk and uncertainly there is a slight difference between risk and uncertainty risk involves situations in which the probabilities of a particular event occurring are known where as in uncertainty these probabilities are unknown. In many cases these two terms are used inter changeably. Risk in capital investments may be due to the general economic conditions competition, technological developments, consumer preferences etc. One to these reasons the revenues costs and economic life of a particular investment are not certain. While evaluating capital investment proposals a proper adjustment should therefore be made for risk and uncertainty 48 CHAPTER IV Data requirement 49 Data Requirement Cash flow estimates While estimation of cash flow we have to use the four principles of cash flow they are:- separation principle:- There are two sides of a project the investment side and the financing side and the cash flows associated with these sides should be separated the important point to be emphasized is that while defining the cash flows on the investment side, financing costs should not be considered because they will be reflected in the cost of capital figure against which the rate of return figure will be evaluated. Operationally this means that interest on debt is ignored while computing profits and taxes thereon. Alternatively, if interest is deducted in the process of arriving at profit after tax an amount equal to interest (1- tax rate) should be added to profit after tax note that Profit before interest and tax (1 tax rate) = (Profit before tax + interest)(1 tax rate) = (Profit before tax (1 tax rate) + interest (1 tax rate) =Profit after tax + interest (1 tax rate) Incremental principle The cash flow of a project must be measured in incremental terms. To ascertain a projects incremental cash flows you have to look at what happens to the cash flows of the firm with the project and without the project the different between the two reflects the incremental cash flows attributable to the project. That is, Project cash flow for year t = cash flow for the firm cash flow for the firm 50 In estimat5ing the incremental cash flows of the project, the following guidelines must be borne in mind they are consider all incidental effects ,ignore sunk costs, include opportunity costs, question the allocation of overhead costs ,estimate working capital properly c) Post-tax principle: Cash flows should be measured on an after-tax basis. Some firms may ignore tax payments and try to compensate this mistake by discounting the pre-tax cash flows at a rate that is higher than the cost of capital of the firm. Since there is no reliable way of adjusting the discount rate, you should always use after-tax cash flows along with after-tax discount rate cash flows should be measured after taxes the important issues in assessing the impact of taxes are what tax rate should losses be treated? What is the effect of non-cash charges? d) Consistency principle Cash flows and the discount rates applied to these cash flows must be consistent with respect to the investor group and inflation Investor group: Cash flows to all investors = PBIT (1- TAX RATE) + Depreciation and non cash charges Capital expenditure Change in working capital Inflation: Nominal cash flow t= real cash flow (1+ expected inflation rate) t e) Effect of indirect expenses Cost Allocation is vital to understanding the costs and cost drivers of individual products, orders, customers and suppliers. Activity Based Costing is the best method of accurately assigning indirect costs to departments, customers, suppliers, products and orders. 51 However, only Resource Based costing, also known as Time Driven Costing, accounts for variability of different transactions and orders. Other solutions assign average costs, penalizing the most profitable, lowest-cost, products, customers and suppliers, while rewarding the high cost ones. f) Effect of deprecation If you buy agricultural property such as machinery, computers, breeding livestock, equipment, etc. that has a useful life of more than one year, you spread the cost of it over several years for record keeping and tax purposes. This is called depreciation. Property is depreciable if it meets these tests: 1. It must be used in business or held for the production of income. 2. It must have a determinable useful life longer than one year, and 3. It must be something that wears out, decays, gets used up, becomes obsolete or loses value from natural causes. g) Working capital effect Acompany's current assets minus its current  HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/workingcapital.asp" \l "#" \t "_blank" liabilities - considered a good measure ofboth acompany's efficiency and its financial health. A positive working capital means that the company is able to pay off their short-term liabilities.A negativeworking capital means that a company currently is unable tomeet their short-term liabilities with their current assets (cash,  HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/workingcapital.asp" \l "#" \t "_blank" accounts receivable, inventory). If a company's current assets do not exceed its current liabilities, then it may run into trouble paying back creditors that want their money quickly. The working capital ratio, which measures this ability to pay back creditors, is calculated ascurrent assets divided by current liabilities. Working capital also gives investors an idea of the company's underlying operational efficiency. Money that is tied up in inventory or moneythat customers still owe to the company cant be used to pay off any of its obligations. So if a company is not operating in the most efficient manner (slow collection) it will show up in the working capital. Comparing the working capital from one period of time to another can see this;slow collection may illustrate an underlying problem in the companys operations. 52 CHAPTER V ANALYSIS 53 ANALYSIS Calculation of total sales of the project YearsCapacityProductionLocal SalesSelling PriceTotal Sales(in units)180%2570185041327644200290%2892208546499692123390%2892208546499692123490%2892208546499692123590%2892208546499692123690%2892208546499692123790%2892208546499692123890%2892208546499692123990%28922085464996921231090%2892208546499692123 54 Calculation of variable Cost (000) S.No. Particulars12345678910 Salaries & Wages55006500750080008200450062008250977512680Electricity1284145615602140325015903570415042251478Repairs & Maintenance500564528598574563521591540578Administration exp350320280300380210158176170220Total7634884098681103812404686310449131671471014956 55 Calculation of Net Profit of the Project A B C D E F Total SalesVariable CostFixed CostGP=A2-B2-C2TAX 40%NET PROFIT1500076343500386615462319.617000884035004660186427961730098683500393215732359.217500110383500296211851777.2180001240435002096838.41257.61850068633500813732554882.218800104493500485119402910.619250131673500258310331549.822890147103500468018722808 56 Project cost Project Cost (omit 000)phase-Iphase-IITotalLand1495Civil Works1621538Buildings11601788Contingency140116Preliminary Expenses341Pre-operative Expenses756Margin money for Working capital 45Total555824428000 So the total cost of project is of 8000000 57 Profitability Index or Benefit Cost PI = [(Present value of cash in flows)/(Present value of cash out flows)] Cash Flow- We is going to assume that the project we are considering approving has the following cash flow. Right now, in year zero we will spend 8,000,000 rupees on the project. Then for 5 years we will get money back as shown below. YearCash flow (000)0-8000137332320031600410665533 Payback When exactly do we get our money back, when does our project break even? Figuring this is easy. Take your calculator. YearCash flow (000)Running Total (000)0-8000-800013733-4267(So after the 1st year, the project has not yet broken even)23200-1067(So after the 2nd year, the project has not yet broken even)31600533(So the project breaks even sometime in the 3rd year) 58 But when, exactly? Well, at the beginning of the year we had still had a -1067 balance, right? So do this. Negative Balance / Cash flow from the Break Even Year=When in the final year we break even1607 / 1600 =.666 So we broke even 2/3 of the way through the 3rd year. So the total time required to payback the money we borrowed was 2.66 years. Discounted Payback Is almost the same as payback, but before you figure it, you first discount your cash flows. You reduce the future payments by your  HYPERLINK "http://teachmefinance.com/../../../../../costofcapital.html" cost of capital. Why? Because it is money you will get in the future, and will be less valuable than money today. (See  HYPERLINK "http://teachmefinance.com/timevalueofmoney.html" Time Value of Money if you don't understand). For this project, the cost of capital is 10%. YearCash flow(000)Discounted Cash flow (000)Running Total (000)0-8000-8000-8000137333397-4607232002645-1962316001202-76041066728-325533331299 So we break even sometime in the 5th year. When? Negative Balance / Cash flow from the Break Even Year=When in the final year we break even-32 / 331 =.096 So using the Discounted Payback Method we break even after 4.096 years. 59 Net Present Value (NPV) Once you understand discounted payback, NPV is so easy! NPV is the final running total number. That's it. In the example above the NPV is 299. That's all. You're done, baby. Basically NPV and Discounted Payback are the same idea, with slightly different answers. Discounted Payback is a period of time, and NPV is the final rupees amount you get by adding all the discounted cash flows together. If the NPV is positive, then approve the project. It shows that you are making more money on the investment than you are spending on your cost of capital. If NPV is negative, then do not approve the project because you are paying more in interest on the borrowed money than you are making from the project. PROJECTED COST=8000000 SALVAGE VALUE =5500000 COST OF CAPITAL =10% AND TAX RATE =50% CFBT DebtCBTTax50%EATCFAT10%capCP69665006466323332333733.909339359005005400270027003200.826264327005002200110011001600.7511202163250011325665661066.683728566500663333533.620331NPV=+297 DEP= ((0PROJECTED COST- SALVAGE VALUE)/NUMBER OF YEARS) = ((8000-5500)/5) = 500 NPV= (SUM OF PROFIT VOLUME INITIAL INVESTMENT) = (8297-8000) = (+297) 60 Profitability Index Profitability IndexEqualsNPVDivided byTotal InvestmentPlus1PI=297/8,000+1 So in our project, the PI = 1.0375. For every borrowed and invested we get back 1.0375, or one rupees and 3 and one-third cents. This profit is above and beyond our cost of capital. Internal Rate of Return IRR is the amount of profit you get by investing in a certain project. It is a percentage. An IRR of 10% means you make 10% profits per year on the money invested in the project. To determine the IRR, you need your good buddy, the financial calculator. YearCash flow (000)10%CAPPV5%CAPPV0-80001-80001-800013733.9093393.95354623200.8262643.90288031600.7511202.86137641066.683728.818635533.620331.77410NPV=+297-1075 IRR=LR+ (NPV@LR/PV)*R =10+ (297/1372)*5 =11.08 61 Modified Internal Rate of Return - MIRR Is basically the same as the IRR, except it assumes that the revenue (cash flows) from the project are reinvested back into the company, and are compounded by the company's cost of capital, but are not directly invested back into the project from which they came. OK, MIRR assumes that the revenue is not invested back into the same project, but is put back into the general "money fund" for the company, where it earns interest. We don't know exactly how much interest it will earn, so we use the company's cost of capital as a good guess. Why use the Cost of Capital? Because we know the company wouldn't do a project, which earned profits below the cost of capital. That would be stupid. The company would lose money. Hopefully the company would do projects, which earn much more than the cost of capital, but, to play it safe, we just use the cost of capital instead. (We also use this number because sometimes the cash flows in some years might be negative, and we would need to 'borrow'. That would be done at our cost of capital.) How to get MIRR - OK, we've got these cash flows coming in, right? The money is going to be invested back into the company, and we assume it will then get at least the company's-cost-of-capital's interest on it. So we have to figure out the  HYPERLINK "http://teachmefinance.com/timevalueofmoney.html" future value (not the present value) of the sum of all the cash flows. This, by the way is called the Terminal Value. Assume, again, that the company's cost of capital is 10%. Here goes... 62 Cash Flow(000)Times=Future Value of that years cash flow. Note3733X(1+. 1) ^ 4=5465Compounded for 4 years 3200X(1+. 1) ^ 3=4260Compounded for 3 years1600X(1+. 1) ^ 2=1936Compounded for 2 years1066X(1+. 1) ^ 1=1173Compounded for 1 years533X(1+. 1) ^ 0=533Not compounded at all because this is the final cash flow TOTAL=13367This is the Terminal Value Why all those zeros? Because the calculator needs to know how many years go by. But you don't enter the money from the sum of the cash flows until the end, until the last year. Is MIRR kind of weird? Yep. You have to understand that the cash flows are received from the project, and then get used by the company, and increase because the company makes profit on them, and then, in the end, all that money gets 'credited' back to the project. Anyhow, the final MIRR is 10.81%. 63 CHAPTER VI CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONS 64 CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONS Decision and review of project Company is getting its payback with in 2 to 3 years (approximately 2.66 years) Project can be approved such that company can get back its profit with in a limited period. Company is getting its Discounted Pay Back with in 4.06 years even after discounting cost of capital. NPV (Net Present Value) of the company is positive 297 so project the project can be approved. PI (Profitability Index) is good because company is making money. Hence, the project can be approved. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) is more than the cost of capital 11.08% so approve the project. MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return) is also more than the cost of capital 10.81% 65 DECISION 66 Decision Time- Do we approve the project? Well, let's review. Decision MethodResultApprove?Why?Payback2.66 yearsYesWell, cause we get our money backDiscounted Payback4.096 yearsYesBecause we get our money back, even after discounting our cost of capital. NPV297YesBecause NPV is positive (reject the project if NPV is negative)Profitability Index1.0375YesCause we make moneyIRR11.08YesBecause the IRR is more than the cost of capitalMIRR10.81%YesBecause the MIRR is more than the cost of capital 67 Bibliography 68 Bibliography Financial Management - I .M PANDEY Financial Management - Prasanna Chandra Financial Accounting Analysis - Jainand Narang Financial management - M.Y.Khan and Jain International finance Tata Mc Graw hill Internet  HYPERLINK "http://www.google.co.in" www.google.co.in,  HYPERLINK "http://www.indiainfo.com" www.indiainfo.com Last years annual report - 2006 Project Planning, Analysis, and selection implementation: Satyanaryana. 69 0 1 2 3 (100.00 10 60 80 18.1% 18.1% 18.1% 0 1 2 3 (100.00 10 60 80 PV1 9.09 PV2 49.59 PV3 60.11 118.79 -100.00 10 60 80 0 1 2 3 10% )<=?AEFGJKLϲϕseWE7h65o5B* CJaJph#jh65o5B* CJUaJphh65o5B* CJaJphh65o5B* CJaJphh65o5B*CJaJphh65o5B* phhO5B*phh65o5;B*CJ aJ phhO5B* CJaJphhO5;B* CJ aJ phh65o5B* CJ aJ 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