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Currency [0]/Explanatory TextG5Explanatory Text % 0Good;Good  a%1 Heading 1G Heading 1 I}%O2 Heading 2G Heading 2 I}%?3 Heading 3G Heading 3 I}%234 Heading 49 Heading 4 I}% 5InputuInput ̙ ??v% 6 Linked CellK Linked Cell }% 7NeutralANeutral  W%"Normal 8Noteb Note   9OutputwOutput  ???%????????? ???:$Percent ;Title1Title I}% <TotalMTotal %OO= Warning Text? Warning Text %XTableStyleMedium9PivotStyleMedium48dq:F ``i̜̙3f3333f3ffff333ff333f33f33BBB\`0r Read me firstyInputs"Analysis of past dividends#`Forecasted Dividends & FCFE$Historical Stock and T.Bills 4Sheet1tmUsersSharedPreviously Relocated ItemsSecurityAll My StuffDatasetsDatasets20To transferhistretSP.xlsExplanations and FAQReturns by yearS&P 500 & Raw DataT. Bond yield & return T. Bill ratesInflation RateSummary for pptHome Prices (Raw Data) Moody's RatesSheet9Sheet10Sheet11Sheet12Sheet13Sheet14Sheet15Sheet16YYYZ L(\@ZM(\~@Gz0@Z MP>IWY?YYYYYYY Y Y Y Y YYY5ffpP @P$ S AA@A@  W|2. To provide an assessment of project quality (ROE compared to cost of equity) and stock price performance over the period. T.Bill rate 7#1. Forecasted FCFE for next 5 years(2. Forecasted dividends for next 5 years@3. Cash available each year for stock buybacks for next 5 years.Required ReturnThe following section of the dividend policy analysis looks at the quality of your firm's investments and the risk-adjusted, market-adjusted performance of your stock over the period. If  7you have a measure of excess returns (ROIC- Cost of capital) or a Jensen's alpha computed for your stock, you can use those measures instead of the ones computed here. 73Section 1: Inputs for estimating Dividends and FCFE 7=Section 2: Assessing Investment Quality and Stock Performance 7Return on StockFORECASTED FCFE AND DIVIDENDS/Expected growth in Revenues over next 5 years =1Expected growth in Net Income over next 5 years =9Expected growth in capital expenditures in next 5 years =1Expected growth in depreciation in next 5 years =&Enter revenues from most recent year =Expected growth in dividendsForecasted FCFE Net Income - (Cap Ex - Deprec'n) (1 - DR)& - Change in Working Capital (1 - DR)FCFEExpected Dividends%Debt Ratio used in forecasting FCFE =7Enter non-cash working capital as a percent of revenuesAnalysis of Past Dividends,Use less years, if you do not have the data.(Enter depreciation in most recent year =<Enter net income from most recent year or normalized value =FEnter capital expenditures from most recent year or normalized value =.Enter dividends paid in the most recent year =Analysis of Dividend Policy Objective1. To compare how much a firm has returned to its stockholder historically (up to 10 years) with how much it could have returned.f3. To provide forecasts of how much cash the firm will have available for stock buybacks in the future Inputs neededa. Beta: You should really use an average beta over the historical period, but go ahead and use your current beta if you do not have this.6b. Book Value of Equity: To compute return on equity. c. Return on the stock: This is the total return you would have made as an investor: It includes price appreciation + dividend yield each yeargd. Riskfree rate: The one-year government security rate at the start of each year (use the T.Bill rate)Qe. Return on Stock Market: This is the total return on the stock market each yearOe. Dividends: Only cash dividends should be shown here (ignore stock dividends)Hf. Stock Buybacks: Include the cash flow associated with stock buybacks.;For project assessment and stock price performance analysisba. Expected growth rates in net income, dividends, depreciation, capital expenditures and revenuesic. Debt as a percent of reinvestment, looking forward. As a default, you can use your historical average.OutputHistorical Analysis=1. FCFE and Cash Returned each year for the historical period\2. Returns on equity, the stock and your required return each year for the historical period*3. Averages of both over the entire periodYears(You can get the last two from the worksheet that is part of this spreadsheet that reports historical data on both)For historical analysis: For forecasts+b. Working capital as a percent of revenues+Enter the beta for the equity of this firm: BV: EquityReturns on stockReturn on market Dividends + Equity Repurchases ForecastsEquity Repurchases (in $)QThe last set of inputs to this analysis relate to project choice and performance:!Cash available for stock buybacksRevenues Non-cash WC8How many years of historical data do you have available?(number of years) = Cash to StockholdersDividend Ratios Payout RatioCash Paid as % of FCFEPerformance Ratios1. Accounting MeasureROERequired rate of returnROE - Cost of Equity2. Stock Performance MeasureJensen's alphaIndexAverageDividend Payout RatioROE - Required returnActual - Required ReturnChg in Non-Cash WCNet Debt Issued + Net Debt Issued - (Cap. Exp - Depr) - " Working CapitalFUse these inputs if you want to make projection of FCFE for the future8b. Depreciation, amortization and other non-cash chargesa. Net Income Tc. Capital expenditures: Please include acquisitions as part of capital expenditures#d. Non-cash working capital changesxIn entering these numbers, please make sure that you get the signs right (check the comment box on each of these inputs);Section 3: Inputs for forecasting future dividends and FCFEDividends (aggregate)Depreciation & AmortizationAnnual return on stock3-month T.Bill0have these numbers, leave them at the US levels.(Capital Spending & operating investmentsONote: I have the numbers for the US in the Historical stock & t.bill worksheet.?Please match up the annual data for the years for your company.&If you are in foreign market and don'tNo AggregateFree CF to Equity (pre-debt)@Do you want to want to change this ratio to a target debt ratio?,If yes, enter the target debt ratio to use =Current debt to capital ratio =Yes%Free CF to Equity (target debt ratio)Stock BuybacksDividends + BuybacksCash Payout RatioFree CF to Equity (actual debt)Cash payout as % of target FCFE!Cash payout as % of pre-debt FCFECash payout as % of actual FCFE" = Free CF to Equity (actual debt)Enter the following data for the years for which you have data (starting with the most recent year of data and working backwards).Enter the dollar dividends paid and equity repurchases for each year of historical data (staring with most recent year): (Equity repurchases are in the statement of cash flows)Enter the following data relating to performance (starting with most recent year): (Make sure that you update the riskfree rate and return on the market from the attached worksheet to reflect the time period for your data)S&P 500 (includes dividends)Return on 10-year T. 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R{   (   ~  <~XPP?"f]4@ n4YKjĩwТ :<;Enter the number of years of data you have (upto 10 years)< :?~~  <~XPP?PZ]4@ wle{KS[X p<q(Do not delete any rows; if you have fewer years of data, leave the last few rows untouched. I will ignore them)< p?~~  <~XPP?P Z]4@ N.FX #<$Start with the earliest year first.< #?~~  <~XPP?? Z]4@ EUjCyAYX 5<6Net income before extraordinary charges in each year.< 5?~~  <@~XPP? Z]4@ 103)FG4X a<bEnter depreciation, amortization and other non-cash charges. (Check your statement of cash flows)< a?  B~XPP?H]4@ Ou>*JD  < Capital expenditures from each year, including acquisitions of other firms. You can sometimes use the total under investing activities in the statement of cash flows, but check the activities to make sure that they relate to operations. (Enter as a positive number)< ?  B~XPP?"z ]4@ jgEJުmqh Y0<ZEnter changes in non-cash working capital. Using Balance Sheet: = Non-cash Working capital this year - Non-cash Working capital last year Using statement of cash flows = - (Change in non-cash working capital) Please remember to reverse the sign. An increase (decrease) in non-cash working capital should be entered a positive (negative) number.<0 , @ Y~~  <~XPP??Z]4 @ -&Y\F U!X {<|Total dollar dividends paid to common stockholders (not preferred) during the period. Should be in statement of cash flows.< {?  B~XPP?"]4 @ dZ| IJ'i}  <Enter the stock buybacks in statement of cashflows. Do not net out stock issues but you can net out proceeds from option exercise.< 5 H ~~  <@~XPP?$f']4 @ Jd fI8wX u<vEnter the beta of the company during the period. If you have a bottom up beta, use it. If not, use a regression beta.< u?  B~XPP?%f*3]4 @ G 9P- 6<mEnter the book value of common equity for each year (preferably at start) in the sample. If you want beginning of year equity, use the previous year's equity; for instance, enter the book value of equity for 1997 and the book value of equity for 1998& . You can also compute the average book equity each year...< 6?~~  <~XPP?H'*]4@ ύAN[aEMX p<qThis is the return you would have made on investing in the stock, inclusive of dividends and price appreciation.< p?~~  <~XPP?'*]4@ Y Z_F?MփcX f<gEnter the treasury bill rate at the start of each period. This is available in the attached worksheet.< f?~~  <@~XPP?"'f*]4@ FFIcBݤ X s<tThis is the return on the stock index, each year of the analysis. This is also available in the attached worksheet.< s?~~  <~XPP?5 8 ]4@ >a0Gq6^X K<LProjected growth rate in sales; if unavailable, look at historical growth. <+K~~  <~XPP?6 7]4@ ӫ4O\-zǼX Q<REnter projected growth in EPS, estimated by analysts for next 5 years (zacks.com)< Q?~~  <~XPP?7 8 ]4@ uksAU*mX N<OSet equal to growth in revenues, if you do not have any information on growth.<+N~~  <~XPP?8@9]4@ ʭ@'=g}HX <Generally, set equal to the growth rate in cap ex. If cap ex is significantly higher than depreciation, this growth rate can be set higher than cap ex growth.< ?~~  <~XPP?7@9s]4@ _ٯ}C~_X <Current year's revenues< A~~  <@~XPP?"=@?&]4@ O BᛩX ^<_This growth rate can reflect expected growth in earnings and management targets for dividends.< ^`  B~XPP?D ]4@ ]!E[Z7 8<9Aswath Damodaran: Enter the change in interest-bearing debt from the previous year. Using balance sheets: Interest-bearing debt this year - interest-bearing debt last year Using statement of cash flow = (Increase in LT Borrowing - Decrease in LT Borrowing + Increase in ST Borrowing - Decrease in ST Borrowing) <  8I"~~  <~XPP?9@;s]4@ vBh:64X b<cAswath Damodaran: You can use the estimate from the most recent year, or use the industry average.<  bN  B~XPP?;@? ]4@ "7A5r <Aswath Damodaran: If your net income in the current year is not normal or negative, this is your change to replace it with a normalized value.<  ڑD  B~XPP?<@1B]4@ ruLϕT\ |<}Aswath Damodaran: If capital expenditures are volatile, you can average it out over time and use a normalized value in here.<  |E<-!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-!A satisfied Microsoft Office userrAswath Damodarano- !A satisfied Microsoft Office userr- !A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-$ !A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-' !A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-'!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-'!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-'!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-6!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-7!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-8!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr-9!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr:Aswath Damodarano-;!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr<Aswath Damodarano=Aswath Damodarano-A!A satisfied Microsoft Office userr>"@Katbt222 447ggD ZO 4r  dMbP?_*+%K\# &C&"Times"&12Dividend Policy&R&P Page &P&?'?(?)?M d"d??&U } }  } }  }  4  ,^ A A A A  A  A  I  I  O O G  O  G G G  G  G G G G G  G  G G G  G G G G ,G  G  JB?ZB@ZB@ ZB@ZB@ZBZBZBZ BZ  Z  m J9@ #D  : B:2@$D  :   B:Dz@ $D  :   B:@$D  :   B:֩@$D  :   B:$D  :   B :$D  :  B : $D  :  B : $D   :  B :  $D   :  B # U@ %  JZB@ ,D ZZ  BB@,D Z Z   BBؚ@,D Z Z   BBx@,D Z Z   BB^@,D Z Z   BB,D Z Z   B B,D ZZ  B B,D ZZ  B B  ,D  ZZ  B B ,D  ZZ  B  @    - L[:`$D  :  B:`@$D  :   B:@ $D  :   B:@s@ $D  :   B:@[$D  :   B:$D  :   B :$D  :  B :$D  :  B :  $D   :  B :  $D   :  B  @  Ln!@ 5 +L LLLB@@ t@@     @@% LY:d@$D  :  B:@$D  :   B:n@$D  :   B:@$D  :   B:`m$D  :   B:$D  :   B :$D  :  B :$D  :  B : $D   :  B :  $D   :  B  0@ {z@ >4L LLLL  B@@`@@ J4D DDDD  B J4D DDDD  B J  4D  D D D D   B J  4D  D D D D   B  }@& Js[GډW@ vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"B'{@vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"BF @vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"BDD@vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"B%ͷ@vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"B vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"B vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"B vD `ZYes #DDDZ&DDDZ"B  vD  `ZYes #D D D Z&D D D Z"B  vD  `ZYes #D D D Z&D D D Z"B {"@' NHHHHHHHHHHII J=: @$D  :  B: А@$D  :  B: @$D  :  B: h@ $D  :  B: @@$D  :  B: $D  :  B : $D  :  B : $D  :  B :  $D   :  B :  $D   :  B # i@  %   I Q>7 @!D  :B7 @ !D  :B7 @!D  :B7 ڤ@!D  :B7 @@ !D  :B7 !D  :B7 !D  :B7 !D  :B7  !D   :B7  !D   :B# @" %   A PG #@ 2  (L LL  B @  u@  @  @@                  # @g@ %   I MRRRRRRRRRRAA KHBBBBBBBBBBAA LIsZ.?!2 (L LL  B1F=?lq!?cMVQ?{?          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