ࡱ> IKFGH5@ 0Hbjbj22 +XXQ%@0@0@08x0D1?(11"222222=======$-@RB= 522 5 5=22>;;; 522=; 5=;*;;;21 $ X@06;<>0?;C9C;C; 23|; 4do4222==*,$";d,Psychology 522/622 Lab Lecture 2 Multiple Linear Regression We continue our exploration of multiple linear regression analysis. The goal of this lab is to illustrate basic multiple regression. The simplest multiple regression is a 2 predictor multiple regression problem. Lets work through an example of this situation. We will run a couple of multiple regression models and orient ourselves to the relevant output and correct interpretations of the parameters. DATAFILE: injury.sav This file contains the data for 100 women on the following variables: injury: Overall injury index based on the records kept by the participants gluts: A measure of strength of the muscles in the upper part of the back of the leg and the buttocks age: The age of the women when the study began. Injury will be our dependent variable for all of the models. INITIAL SCATTERPLOTS First, create scatter plots for all combinations of the variables: Injury by gluts, Injury by age, Age by gluts. We can do this by creating a scatterplot matrix. Graphs(Scatter(Matrix(Define(Move Injury, gluts, and age to the Matrix Variables box(OK. GRAPH /SCATTERPLOT(MATRIX)=injury gluts age /MISSING=LISTWISE . Were checking for anything fishy (non-linearity, heteroscedasticity, outliers).  I dont see anything fishy. Do you? What can you tell by looking at the scatterplots here? Do you have any inkling of the direction/magnitude of the linear associations between these variables? My guess is that injury and age have a positive relationship, gluts and age likely have a very weak positive relationship, and gluts and injury have a negative relationship. Making a 3-D Interactive Scatterplot!!! Graphs(Interactive(Scatterplot(Click on the 2-D coordinate box and select 3-D coordinate(Move injury to the Y axis, age to the x axis, and gluts to the diagonal(OK. Double click on the plot in the output and play with your data in 3-D! CORRELATION ANALYSIS Lets create a correlation matrix for these three variables. This is a really easy analysis, so test yourself and see if you can remember how to do it using the dropdown commands. CORRELATIONS /VARIABLES=injury gluts age /PRINT=TWOTAIL NOSIG /MISSING=PAIRWISE .  Were our predictions based on the bivariate scatterplots correct? Pretty much ( Lets focus on the gluts X injury relationship. Note that in the scatterplot the majority of the datapoints are just swirling around the center, but weve got maybe 3 hanging out toward the bottom right corner and maybe 3 hanging out in the top left. Although they dont appear to be true outliers they are influential data points. If we dropped them from our dataset, it would definitely affect (i.e., weaken) the correlation between these two variables. SIMPLE REGRESSION OF INJURY ON GLUTS Lets quickly run a simple regression predicting injury from gluts. In this simple regression, injury is the dependent variable and gluts is the independent variable. Analyze(Regression(Linear(Move injury to the DV box, move gluts to the IV box Statistics(Select Descriptive (Estimates and Model Fit should already be selected) Plots(Move ZResid to the Y axis, move ZPred to the X axis, Select Histogram, Select Normal Probability Plot (this is the P-P plot) Save(Under Predicted Values, select Standardized and Unstandardized Click OK. REGRESSION /DESCRIPTIVES CORR /MISSING LISTWISE /STATISTICS COEFF OUTS R ANOVA /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) /NOORIGIN /DEPENDENT injury /METHOD=ENTER gluts /SCATTERPLOT=(*ZRESID ,*ZPRED ) /RESIDUALS HIST(ZRESID) NORM(ZRESID) . Regression   When we have only one predictor, what do we know to be true about R (i.e., Multiple R) and r (i.e., the Pearson correlation)? Theyre the same, right? So whats different here, and why?? Multiple R is positive and r(gluts,injury) is negative. Why? Because R is always positive. Why? Well, R=rY,Y. Would you expect the correlation between the actual values of Y and the predicted values of Y to be negative or positive? Positive, of course. Remember, when were talking about R were not talking about the relationship between X and Y (in this case, gluts and injury). Were talking about the relationship between the actual and predicted values of Y (injury). Now, if it turns out that our predictor(s) do a really terrible job of predicting values our DV, R will just be much closer to zero.   Lets write out this regression equation for practice: v = 255.99  3.56(gluts)  We want these residual values to be as small as possible because the smaller the residual values, the better our data is fitting the regression line. Charts   Our histogram looks pretty good-our residuals are approximately normally distributed. What about the P-P plot? Although there are a few hiccups, the data are approximating a line.  What about the scatterplot of our standardized residual values? We dont want to see any shape here. Blobs=good. And for the most past, thats what we see. So, on the basis of these three graphs, well decide that were comfortable that we havent seriously violated any of our assumptions. STANDARD MULTIPLE REGRESSION OF INJURY ON GLUTS AND AGE In this regression, injury again is the dependent variable and now both gluts and age are predictors. What well run here is what T&F refer to as standard multiple regression. Analyze(Regression(Linear(Move injury to the dependent variable box, Move gluts and age to the IV box Click Statistics ( select Collinearity diagnostics (you can also select Part and partial correlations if youre interested in seeing those) Well want the same information that we just asked for when running the simple regression, so everything should already be set up for us. REGRESSION /DESCRIPTIVES CORR /MISSING LISTWISE /STATISTICS COEFF OUTS R ANOVA TOL /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) /NOORIGIN /DEPENDENT injury /METHOD=ENTER gluts age /SCATTERPLOT=(*ZRESID ,*ZPRED ) /RESIDUALS HIST(ZRESID) NORM(ZRESID) . Regression     R=.53 and R2=.28, indicating that 28% of the variance in injury is accounted for by age and glut strength.  This is the F ratio that we want to report in our results section. Wed report it just the way we would for an ANOVA, F(2, 97) = 19.04, p < .01, R2 = .28.  It looks like both of our IVs are significant predictors of injury. How do we interpret these partial regression coefficients? Gluts: Holding constant age, for every unit increase in glut strength there is an expected decrease of 4.06 in injury. Colloquially stated: controlling for age, higher levels of glut strength are related to fewer incidences of injury Age: Holding gluts constant, for every unit (i.e., year) increase in age, injury is expected to increase by 5.84 units. Colloquially stated: controlling for glut strength, injuries increase with age. Also, our collinearity statistics look good ( Remember, we want high tolerance values. Let s write out the regression equation: v = -120.87 - 4.06(gluts) + 5.84(age)  A rule of thumb is to have these standardized residuals not exceed |2|. They look OK here. Charts   Hmm, the histogram isnt looking quite as good here, but it still isnt too scary. P-P plot: again, were seeing a few hiccups, especially at the very top of the graph. Lets look at the scatterplot of the residuals to see if it gives us any cause for concern.  For the most part, were seeing the desired blob. The point thats sort of hanging out on its own to the left of the graph is potentially problematic. NOTE: for the sake of time, we wont go through all of the diagnostics, but recall from last week that you could ask for Mahalanobis distance, Cooks distance, and leverage values for additional information about potential outliers. Also, since this is a regression with two predictors, you could look at the data in 3-D like we discussed earlier!! SEQUENTIAL (HIERARCHICAL) REGRESSION This next model conducts a hierarchical regression analysis. Here gluts will be entered as a predictor variable in the first step and age in the second step. Analyze(Regression(Linear(Move injury to the DV box Move gluts to the IV box(Click Next Move Age into the IV box in Block 2 of 2 Click Statistics(select R squared change Everything else we want should already be selected from the previous analyses we ran, so Click OK. Regression   Already we see that our Model Summary table looks different than it did before. We see two rows, Model 1 and Model 2. Model 1 refers to Block 1, in this case, just gluts predicting injury. Model 2 refers to Blocks 1 & 2, in this case, gluts and age predicting injury. So what kind of information are we getting here? MODEL 1 This is the same information we got when we ran a simple regression predicting injury from gluts. The model summary table for that analysis is below so that you can compare the two. Nothing new and exciting in the first 5 columns.  In examining the Change Statistics box, well get the same information thats provided to us in the ANOVA summary table (reproduced below) for the simple regression predicting injury from gluts.   In the change statistics box, we see columns titled R square change, F change, df1, df2, and Sig. F Change. In this case, R square change = R square. Why? Because here SPSS is comparing our model 1 to a model with no predictors where R2=0. F change = the F ratio we got when running our simple regression. Df1 = df(regression), and df2=df(residual) Sig. F Change = p value for the F ratio we got when running our simple regression. MODEL 2 Below you see the model summary table for our hierarchical regression, followed by the model summary table for the standard multiple regression predicting injury from gluts and age.   R = R for standard multiple regression;R2 = R2 for standard multiple regression So far, we havent gotten any new information. The cool stuff comes in the change statistics box. R2 change = Model 2 R2 Model 1 R2. So in this case, R2 = .282 - .154 = .128. We easily could have calculated this ourselves, but SPSS gives it to you ( F change: this is an F ratio that allows you to test whether the change in R2 between Models 1 and 2 is significant. It is NOT the difference in the F values between Models 1 and 2 (i.e., you dont calculate it via simple subtraction as you do with R2 change). So we now have an F ratio and want to see if it is significant. The corresponding p value for this F ratio shows up in the column titled Sig. F change. Sig. F Change: This is a p-value for the F change ratio. Now that we have a p value, what are the two questions we ask? 1) Whats the null hypothesis that were evaluating? Here, were evaluating the null hypothesis that Model 1 R = Model 2 R, or that Model 1 R2 = Model 2 R2, or that R2 = 0. The null hypothesis assumes that there will not be a significant change in R/R2 by adding more predictors. Alternatively phrased to suit our example, the null hypothesis assumes that the prediction of injury is not enhanced by adding age as a predictor when gluts is already in the regression. In other words, the null hypothesis assumes that age does not explain incremental variance in injury scores above and beyond the variance explained by glut strength. So weve answered the first question. The second question is: 2) Is it significant? Yes, it is significant, so we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that age does explain incremental variance in injury scores beyond the variance explained by glut strength. Below Ive reproduced the ANOVA summary table for each regression that weve run today so that you can compare the results. This is what youll see: Hierarchical regressions model 1 = simple regression model 1 Hierarchical regression model 2 = standard multiple regression model 2 HIERARCHICAL REGRESSION  SIMPLE REGRESSION PREDICTING INJURY FROM GLUT STRENGTH  STANDARD MULTIPLE REGRESSION  MODEL 1 COEFFICIENTS What do you notice below about the coefficient for gluts? Its the same as it was when we ran a simple regression predicting injury from gluts. Thats because Model 1 IS the simple regression predicting injury from gluts. HIERARCHICAL REGRESSION  SIMPLE REGRESSION  MODEL 2 COEFFICIENTS What do you notice here? Hmm, these look familiar, too. They are the same coefficients that we saw when we conducted a standard multiple regression, i.e., put all the predictors into one step instead of separating them out into two steps. HIERARCHICAL REGRESSION  STANDARD MULTIPLE REGRESSION  Lets focus on the coefficients in the hierarchical regression. You can see that the coefficient for gluts changes between Model 1 (B = -3.55) and Model 2 (B = -4.06). Weve seen in our examples in class that, due to multicollinearity and other reasons, adding predictors can often reduce the size of a coefficient, but here the partial regression coefficient for gluts actually gets larger. Why do you think that is? Based on the correlation matrix, we saw that injury shared a pretty strong relationship with age. In the first model, were ignoring age and only including gluts, so theres a lot noise (i.e., error) in our prediction. However, once we include age and control for it, some of that error/noise is reduced. In addition, age and glut strength are not highly correlated (recall that when we ran the bivariate correlations, rage,gluts = .16. Here weve got a situation where including an additional predictor (age) helps to reduce additional noise (i.e., error; i.e., variance) in the DV, so our partial regression coefficient for gluts improves. Below we can check out our collinearity diagnostics, and they look good. We would expect this because we decided when we ran the standard multiple regression (which is the same as model 2 in the hierarchical regression) that multicollinearity was not a problem.  So what have we learned?? In our example, Standard multiple regression results = Hierarchical regression results for Model 2. Although hierarchical regression is nice because it gives you change statistics, saving you the hassle of calculating them on your own, your last model in hierarchical regression will ultimately yield the same results as throwing all of the variables into one step. So, if youre just interested in how well a particular group of variables predicts scores on a given DV, standard multiple regression is completely appropriate and the best suited. However, if you are especially interested in determining which variable(s) contribute incrementally to the prediction of the DV, hierarchical regression is a great option. NOTE: Just to be explicit, you could run a hierarchical regression by conducting a series of standard multiple regressions. In our example, youd run a regression predicting injury from gluts. Youd click OK and get your output. This information would be the same as what we got in Model 1 of our hierarchical regression. Then youd run another regression and include gluts and age as predictors in one step. The information here would be the same as what we got in Model 2 of our hierarchical regression, and the same as what we saw when running the standard multiple regression. However, this process takes longer than just clicking Next to get you to the next block of predictors in SPSS, and you dont get the change statistics. Im just explaining this to drive home the point that the results you get will be the same, whether you focus on the last model in your hierarchical regression or a standard multiple regression where all variables were entered in one step. Sample APA results section: Table 1 [I didnt actually include this, but you should (] displays correlations among all study variables. Both predictors shared moderate to strong relationships with the outcome and were only weakly correlated with one another. Inspection of P-P plots and a scatterplot of the standardized residual values indicated that the assumptions were met. Examination of bivariate scatter plots did not reveal any extreme data values. A hierarchical multiple regression was conducted to determine whether age contributed incrementally to the prediction of injury scores above and beyond that accounted for by glut strength. Glut strength was entered in step 1, and age was entered in step 2. Results indicated that glut strength explained 15% of the variance in injury, F(1, 98) = 17.89, p < .01. Furthermore, age explained an incremental 13% of the variance in injury scores, F(1, 97) = 17.23, p < .01, above and beyond the variance in accounted for by glut strength. Partial regression coefficients are reported in Table 2. Results suggest that women of the same age are less likely to be injured if they have more strength in their gluts. Conversely, women who have the same level of glut strength are more likely to be injured if they are older. VariableBSE BStep 1 Glut strength-4.06.79-.45*Step 2 Age5.841.41.36*Note. R2 = .15 for Step 1; R2 = .15 for Step 2 (ps < .05). * p < .05 NOTE: The partial regression coefficients that you report here come from MODEL 2 (i.e., the FINAL model). You do NOT report the partial regression coefficient for glut strength from Model 1. NOTE 2: I did not report the t statistic that accompanies the partial regression coefficient anywhere. This is primarily because we entered only one variable in each step, so the R2 statistic is sufficient. However, if we had entered several variables in step 2, we would likely report the t statistics associated with each partial regression coefficient. In this way we d let our readers know which variables were significant predictors of our DV. APPENDIX Here I want to show you how the order in which you enter your coefficients has NO EFFECT on the regression coefficients that you see in the final model when conducting a hierarchical regression, or in Model 1 (the only model) in standard multiple regression. This will be brief, but hopefully it also helpful. PREDICTING INJURY FROM GLUTS AND AGE Standard Multiple Regression:    Hierarchical Regression, Step 1 = gluts, Step 2 = age:  Hierarchical Regression, Step 1 = age, Step 2 = gluts:    Whats the same between the two hierarchical regressions??? Model 2 R, Model 2 R2, and the Model 2 partial regression coefficients. Whats different between the two hierarchical regressions??? Everything in Model 1, R square change, and F change. For the things that are different, WHY are they different??? Because Model 1 has changed!! In the first hierarchical regression, we entered  ">\fmw  ! + : D E F 1 < = Y m n o      & ' - . 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Recall that by doing this, the results you get for model 1 are equal to the results you get by running a simple regression predicting injury from gluts. Now that weve changed the order in which weve entered the variables (i.e., we entered age in step 1 and gluts in step 2), Model 1 becomes equivalent to the simple regression predicting injury from age. See below for proof ( Simple regression predicting injury from age:    Remember that in hierarchical regression, you are always comparing models. Model 1 to a model with no predictors, model 2 to model 1, and if we had a model 3 wed be comparing it to model 2. So were comparing any new variables we enter to all the other variables that have already been put into the regression. R square change and F change will also take on different values in the hierarchical regression (step 1 = age, step 2 = gluts) than they did in the hierarchical regression (step 1 = gluts, step 2 = age). Again, this is because model 1 has changed! So although model 2 in both hierarchical regressions is the same model, the model to which we compare it (model 1) has changed. This is why we see the same R and R2 values for Model 2 in the two hierarchical regressions, but different values for R2. Partial Regression Coefficients across the 3 Regressions (Standard, Hierarchical 1 and Hierarchical 2) Standard Multiple Regression:  Hierarchical Regression (step 1 = gluts, step 2 =age): focus on model 2  Hierarchical Regression (step 1 = age, step 2 =gluts): focus on model 2  The partial regression coefficients in the final models ARE ALL THE SAME. The Venn diagrams in the Tabachnick & Fidell may mistakenly lead you to believe that the order in which you enter the variables will affect the partial regression coefficients that you see in the final model. No. In hierarchical regression, the order in which you enter the variables will affect R2 (again, because the comparison model is being changed) but order will not affect the values of B or NHI[\egϲвѲҲ ƮkS/j\h0<h65CJOJQJU\^JaJ)h65B*CJOJQJ\^JaJph8jUh)hDyK5B*CJOJQJU\^JaJph h6hh6h66]/joNh)hDyK5CJOJQJU\^JaJ h6h6hDyK5>*\h65>*\hDyKhDyK5>*\hDyK h1 hDyK h1 H*h1 h6ҲӲ &(*@BDFHh]hgd &`#$gd[gd:gd6$& "$&*,8:<>@DFHǽh\0JmHnHuh1 h1 0Jjh1 0JUh%Sjh%SU h6h6U h6H*h6h66]h6 h5CJOJQJ\^JaJ! in the final model. And, of course, the values of B and  in the final model of a hierarchical regression will yield the same values of B and  that you would have obtained by putting all variables into the same step using standard multiple regression.     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