ࡱ> >@='` u;bjbj .hu3$$$$$$$8\\\\dL8;2 =!L+;-;-;-;-;-;-;$<hF?Q;$!!!Q;$$f;1#1#1#!$$+;1#!+;1#1#k6$$[8  u\ "v7; |;0;%76?"X?,[8?$[8!!1#!!!!!Q;Q;"X!!!;!!!!888$\888\888$$$$$$ Stock-Trak Assignment #1 Due: Thursday, October 1 The goal of this assignment is to apply the fundamental analysis tools that we have studied in Chapter 6. We will use these tools to analyze a firms fundamentals and then come up with a trading strategy. (Youll apply that strategy at  HYPERLINK "http://www.stocktrak.com/" www.stocktrak.com/) First choose a publicly traded company that you would hypothetically want to analyze/track/invest in. Using a financial news website such as the following, look up the financial statements of that company. (There are other places to look; its your choice.)  HYPERLINK "http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.asp" http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.asp or  HYPERLINK "http://www.valueline.com" www.valueline.com (when on a campus computer) Using the Constant Perpetual Dividend Growth Model, the Residual Income Model, the P/E ratio, the P/CF ratio, and the P/S ratio, perform valuations on or predictions of the firms stock price. For the Constant Dividend Growth Model, find current dividends per share, D(0), from the income statement. Estimate the dividend growth rate, g, or find it on the ratios/statements pages. Estimate the discount rate, k, using the CAPM. (Note: Some stocks dont pay dividends. If that is the case, then state that and skip the dividend model.) Residual Income Model: Find or estimate the EPS growth rate. Find book value per share on the balance sheet. Use the discount rate, k, from part a. P/E ratio: Find or estimate the EPS growth rate. (You can use the same EPS growth rate from part b.) Predict next years EPS. Then predict next years stock price using the average P/E ratio. (Use the average P/E of the last few years.) P/CF ratio: Find or estimate the CFPS growth rate. Predict next years CFPS. (You can use Cash From Operations on the Cash Flow Statement to approximate operating cash flow.) Then predict next years stock price using the average P/CF ratio. (Use the average P/CF of the last few years.) P/S ratio: Find or estimate the SPS growth rate. Predict next years SPS. Then predict next years stock price using the average P/S ratio. (Use the average P/S of the last few years.) Now for the fun part! You now have as many as five different estimates for the stock value based on part 3. Compare your estimates of stock value to the current actual stock price (on Yahoo Finance or other). Make a prediction about whether the stock is underpriced or overpriced (i.e. whether you should buy it or short it). Once youve made your prediction about the stock price direction, go to Stock-Trak and make the appropriate trade. Remember, you short sell if you think its overpriced (this means you think the current price is too high). You buy it if you think its underpriced (this means you think the current price is too low). On Stock-Trak:  HYPERLINK "http://www.stocktrak.com//" http://www.stocktrak.com/ Login at the top right. Under Trading, click on Stocks. Enter the ticker symbol and the number of shares to trade. Note: Ill leave it up to you to decide how many shares to trade. That might depend on how sure you feel about your prediction. Also, remember that the transaction cost on Stock-Trak is $25 per trade, so it may take a large number of shares to overcome that cost. (Transaction fees come out of your hypothetical $1 million.) Click on either Buy or Short depending on which one you want. Finally, click on Preview. On the next page, click on Confirm. Now, Print the Confirmation page. If you forget or have a problem, you can print the Transaction History page under My Portfolio instead. What you are to turn in on Thursday, October 1: Create a neat, organized report of your stock analysis & trading with the three sections as follows: Section 1: Include your name, the assignment (Stock Trak #1), and a typed concise description of your analysis. Include why you picked the stock, and your conclusions on whether the stock is overvalued or undervalued. Do the results of your calculations agree with other current information that you may know about the company? Section 2: Neat, organized, legible calculations for steps 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d, and 3e. This page(s) can be hand written or typed. Clearly show your five stock price predictions compared to the market price. Section 3: A printout of either your Stock-Trak Confirmation page or Transaction History. If you include Transaction History, circle the trade that corresponds with this assignment. Extra Credit (Optional): Any time after you make your initial trade, but before December 11, reverse your trade on Stock-Trak when and if the stock price moves in the direction you predicted. If you can show me that you made a profit (net of transaction costs), Ill give you 5 extra credit points on the final exam. Thus, there is incentive here to try to make quality valuations/predictions. In order to receive extra credit, you must: Print out the Transaction History: View All page Circle the initial trade and the reverse trade Show through neat, legible calculations that you made a positive profit (net of transaction costs). This extra credit portion can be turned in anytime before the final exam, but you must make your final trade by December 11. That is the day our Stock-Trak subscription expires. Stock-Trak Assignment #2 Due: Tuesday, October 13 Using at least 3 technical analysis tools, identify one stock to either buy or short sell. You must print out whatever charting you finally use. I recommend:  HYPERLINK "http://www.bigcharts.com" www.bigcharts.com or  HYPERLINK "http://www.stockcharts.com" www.stockcharts.com Type a few coherent sentences explaining your choice of strategy and reasoning from these 3+ techniques (technical analysis). As soon as you have picked your winner (or loser), go to Stock-Trak and make the trade. You choose how many shares to trade. Print out your confirmation page. Charts, Summaries, and Confirmation printouts are due on Tuesday, October 13. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Extra Credit (Optional): Any time after you turn in this assignment but before December 11, reverse your trade on Stock-Trak when/if the stock price moves in the direction you predicted. If you can show me that you made a profit (net of transaction costs), Ill give you 5 extra credit points on the final exam. Thus, there is incentive here to try to make good predictions. You will have to print out the Transaction History of your reverse trade and your original trade, and show me through calculations that you made a profit (net of transaction costs). Stock-Trak Assignment #3 Bond Analysis & Trading Due: Tuesday, November 17 For this assignment, you will be analyzing a U.S. Treasury coupon bond and purchasing it on Stock-Trak. Stock Trak trades only a very limited number of bonds. To trade bonds, you click on Bonds under Trading on the lower left of the screen. In the trading window, under Symbol, you will find a selection of traded bonds. Treasuries are listed below the Corporates. You will select a Treasury bond based on the following formula: Bond Maturity Year = 2020 + (last digit of your student ID number). Select the Treasury bond that has a maturity closest to the formula result. Once you have selected your Treasury bond, you must calculate or estimate the following: Estimate the YTM of the bond by linear interpolation of the current Treasury yield curve. HYPERLINK "http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/yield.shtml"http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/yield.shtml Calculate the current bond Present Value (or Price). (You can use either your financial calculator, or Excels PV function, or Excels PRICE function. You may have to install all of the Add-ins on Excel to get the PRICE function to work. Look under Tools and then Add-ins.) Calculate the bonds Macaulay Duration. (You can use the formula in the book or Excels DURATION function. This will also require the Add-ins.) Calculate how many bonds you need to purchase in order make a $50,000 purchase. Round off to the closest whole number. Next, go buy your selected bond in the quantity that you calculated in part 4 above. What to turn in: Calculations and circled answers for parts 1 through 4. Confirmation page or Transaction History that shows the bond purchase in the appropriate quantity. Stock-Trak Assignment #4 Due: Thursday, December 3 Hedging with Futures NOTE: You must complete the first part of this assignment at least 2 days before the last part of the assignment. First Part (at least 2 days before the last part): For this assignment, you are to hedge the market risk of a one-stock portfolio. The stock will be of your choosing. You will use E-mini S&P 500 Futures to cross-hedge. The contract size for mini S&P 500 futures is $50 times the futures price. This hedge is only necessary for a few weeks, so select the December 2009 contract. Buy either 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 shares of your selected stock. Find the stock Beta. (Total investment times Beta needs to be between $50,000 and $100,000). Then calculate the number of futures contracts that you will need to hedge the market risk of your portfolio. Youll have to round off to a whole number. Rounding down leaves you with a net long position; rounding up puts you in a net short position. Number of futures contracts =  EMBED Equation.3  , where VF = futures price X contract size. Since you have the stock, you are concerned about falling prices, thus we will enter into a contract that pays when market prices fall. A short position in futures will provide this. Last Part (at least 2 days after the first part): Calculate or observe the gains and losses from your stock and futures position. How well did the hedge do? (i.e.: Did the gains and losses cancel each other out? If not, show by how much?) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What to turn in: Calculations: Show number of futures contracts calculation Printed Transaction History: Circle the stock purchase. Circle the short futures position. Hedge analysis from the Last Part Stock-Trak Assignment #5 Due: Thursday, December 10 Speculating with Options NOTE: This assignment requires that the 1st part (steps 1-4) be performed and implemented during trading hours before the 2nd part (steps 5-6) can be performed. Pick a stock or an index to develop an option strategy. This requires making a prediction of whether that stock or index will go up, go down, stay neutral, or simply be volatile in the near future. You could use a charting technique from Chapter 8 if you like. ( HYPERLINK "http://www.bigcharts.com" www.bigcharts.com for example) Develop an option strategy. You can use Chapter 15 or the following Stock-Trak website to assist in your strategy selection:  HYPERLINK "http://www.stocktrak.com/optstrats.htm" http://www.stocktrak.com/optstrats.htm Go to Trading on Stock-Trak and click on Options. You can decide how much money you want to bet. Perform your selected option strategy by making the necessary option trade(s). Use symbol lookup to find the ticker for the option(s) you want. I recommend copy and paste for the ticker symbol. Write a few sentences to describe how you decided upon your strategy. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After your trade has been implemented (during trading hours), check your position at Open Positions, click on Options on Stock-Trak. Close out your positions by clicking S under Action on your option holding(s). This should set you up to do the reverse trade. For example, if you bought an option (buy), the reverse trade is to sell the option (sell). For example, if you wrote an option (write), the reverse trade is to buy a duplicate option to cancel out your position (cover). Print out the Transaction History page to show that you closed out your positions. Write down whether you made or lost money based on this strategy. Tell why. For example: I lost money because I was expecting the stock to go up and instead it went down. Or for example: I made money because the stock price went up as I expected. Or for example: Transaction costs ate my profits. What to turn in to me: Printout of Transaction History showing the opening and closing of the options strategy. Circle those transactions. A few sentences describing the logic behind the strategy decision. Clearly show whether or not you made profits net of transaction costs. A statement of why you made or lost money (for example, did you lose based on your prediction or simply because of transaction costs). 5 points extra credit for profit net of transaction costs (Due with the assignment on December 10) ')234   ! 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