ࡱ> a jbjbA]A] 't+?+?RZZZZ\R2.000000,Ri\\´q8´´´ .´d@.´´´ Z ´´l<´´´´RRVVYVRRVYOption Analysis Templates Establish Criteria The sum of all the criteria must add up to 1, and for criteria that are broken down into sub-criteria, the sub-criteria also need to add up to 1. Criteria Overall assigned weight of criterionSub criteriaAssigned Weight of each sub-criterionJustification (Why is this criterion important? Why are the subcriteria important to evaluating this criterion? Why did you give this criterion the weight you did?)Effective solution to the Ug99 problem0.3A proposal must produce a variety of wheat resistant to Ug99. A lasting solution to the Ug99 problem0.2Resistance should be effective year after year, While experts acknowledge that any solution will ultimately fail, a project that yields a longer lasting solution is a better project. Feasible0.3Uses established techniques0.4It is important to consider whether this project can even be done. Projects that rely on established scientific techniques, have the necessary tools and are not unreasonably expensive are favored. If a project faces too many obstacles it is less likely to produce successful results. Uses available tools (genes, equipment, chemicals, facilities, etc)0.4Cost0.2Simplicity of overall plan0.2Too many things needing to happen at the same time in one plan will dramatically reduce the likelihood of success. A plan that is overly complex will be more likely to fail. Rate Options Rate each of your options on the criteria/sub-criteria you have identified on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being the worst and 5 being the best. Proposal 1: Emmer CriteriaSub criteria with weightsRating for each sub criterionJustification for each sub-criterion ratingTotal RatingTotal Criteria weightTotal Score (multiply total rating by total weight.Effective solution to the Ug99 problem50.31.5A lasting solution to the Ug99 problem30.20.6FeasibleUses established techniques 0.45Standard breeding and selection techniques(5 x 0.4) + (3 x 0.4) + (5 x 0.2) = 4.20.31.26Uses available tools (genes, equipment, chemicals, facilities, etc) 0.43Current unavailability of suitable marker genes in emmerCost 0.25AppropriateSimplicity of overall plan40.20.8Total Option Score: (Add Total Scores for each criterion)4.16 Summarize Findings: The chief obstacle to the proposed research is the (current) unavailability of suitable marker genes in the emmer wheat genome. The breeding program is rational and could in principle succeed, especially if the workers manage to find candidate marker genes. It is possible that emmer may not contain a suitable resistance gene. Success would not last forever. As the fungus evolves greater pathogenicity, the crop could eventually face a boom and bust problem. Overall, the proposal is a reasonable one.  Rate Options Rate each of your options on the criteria/sub-criteria you have identified on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being the worst and 5 being the best. Proposal 2: Polygene CriteriaSub criteria with weightsRating for each sub criterionJustification for each sub-criterion ratingTotal RatingTotal Criteria weightTotal Score (multiply total rating by total weight.Effective solution to the Ug99 problem50.31.5A lasting solution to the Ug99 problem50.21.0FeasibleUses established techniques 0.44Polygene approaches are not newbut dont always work(4 x 0.4) + (3 x 0.4) + (5 x 0.2) = 3.80.31.14Uses available tools (genes, equipment, chemicals, facilities, etc) 0.43Current lack of marker genes because desired genes unknownCost 0.25AppropriateSimplicity of overall plan10.20.2Total Option Score: (Add Total Scores for each criterion)3.84 Summarize Findings: This proposal faces the greatest hurdles. The difficulty of successfully finding and tracking a single resistance gene (as in the Emmer proposal) is considerable; a polygene approach dramatically increases the difficulty as multiple genes must be tracked. In addition, this proposal faces a greater likelihood of introducing undesirable genes that will decrease the quality of the wheat crop. However, the project, if successful, will yield a much longer-lasting solution. Polygene breeding programs do not face the boom and bust cycle as would the Emmer project. Although its a long shot, this type of program is worth trying.  Rate Options Rate each of your options on the criteria/sub-criteria you have identified on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being the worst and 5 being the best. Proposal 3: Leaf Surface CriteriaSub criteria with weightsRating for each sub criterionJustification for each sub-criterion ratingTotal RatingTotal Criteria weightTotal Score (multiply total rating by total weight.Effective solution to the Ug99 problem10.30.3A lasting solution to the Ug99 problem10.20.2FeasibleUses established techniques 0.45Nothing new here(5 x 0.4) + (5 x 0.4) + (5 x 0.2) = 50.31.5Uses available tools (genes, equipment, chemicals, facilities, etc) 0.45Everything is either at hand or included in budgetCost 0.25AppropriateSimplicity of overall plan30.20.6Total Option Score: (Add Total Scores for each criterion)2.6 Summarize Findings: This is by far the weakest of the three proposals. The most obvious problem is that it does not lead to an inherited resistance. At best, it could, if successful, provide a chemical spray treatment that would retard or even prevent infection of the crop from a particular batch of seed. Farmers would have to pretreat seeds or seedlings each year. In the meantime, Ug99 could evolve, becoming a new strain(s) able to grow on wheat with the modified epidermis. There is no guarantee that the workers can succeed in modifying the epidermis. 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