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Assume that the United States invests heavily in government and stocks of the U.K. In addition, residents of the U.K. invest heavily in the United States.  Because your firm exports goods to the U.K., you are assigned to forecast the value of GBP against the USD –i.e., you forecast St(USD/GBP). Explain how each of the following conditions will affect the value of the GBP, holding other things equal. Then, aggregate all of these impacts to develop an overall forecast of the GBP’s movement against the USD. a. U.S. inflation has suddenly increased substantially, while U.K.’s inflation remains low. b. U.S. interest rates have increased substantially, while U.K.’s interest rates remain low.  c. The U.S. income level increased substantially, while the U.K.’s income level has remained unchanged. d. The U.S. is expected to impose a small tariff on goods imported from the U.K. e. Combine all expected impacts to develop an overall forecast. 1.3 (Ch. 4) Speculation. Deacon Bank expects that the Mexican peso (MXN) will depreciate against the USD from its spot rate of USD .08 to USD .072 in 20 days.  The following interbank lending and borrowing rates exist: Lending Rate Borrowing Rate U.S. dollar (USD) 2.0% 2.1% Mexican peso (MXN) 4.7% 5.0% Assume that Deacon Bank has a borrowing capacity of either USD 10 million or MXN 70 million in the interbank market, depending on which currency it wants to borrow. a. How could Deacon Bank attempt to capitalize on its expectations without using deposited funds?  Estimate the profits that could be generated from this strategy. 1.4 (Ch. 5) Selling Currency Call Options. Farrokh Bulsara sold a call option on Canadian dollars (CAD) for USD.02 per unit.  The strike price was USD.86, and the spot rate at the time the option was exercised was USD.82. Assume Mr. Bulsara did not obtain CAD until the option was exercised.  Also assume that there are 50,000 units in a CAD option.  What was Mr. Bulsara’s net profit on the call option? 1.5 (Ch. 5) Selling Currency Put Options. Brian May sold a put option on CAD for USD .04 per unit.  The strike price was USD .85, and the spot rate at the time the option was exercised was USD .82. Assume Brian immediately sold off the CAD received when the option was exercised. Also assume that there are 50,000 units in a CAD option.  What was Brian’s net profit on the put option? 1.6 (Ch. 5) Speculating with Currency Put Options. Queen Co. has purchased CAD options for speculative purposes.  Each option was purchased for a premium of USD .02 per unit, with an exercise price of USD .89 per unit.  Queen Co. will purchase the CAD just before it exercises the options (if it is feasible to exercise the options).  It plans to wait until the expiration date before deciding whether to exercise the options.  In the following table, fill in the net profit (or loss) per unit to Queen Co. based on the listed possible spot rates of the CAD on the expiration date. Possible St (USD/CAD) Net Profit (Loss) per Unit on Expiration Date if Spot Rate Occurs .81 .86 .89 .92 .95 1.01 1.7 (Ch. 6) Effects on Currencies Tied to the Dollar. The Hong Kong dollar’s (HKD) value is tied to the USD.  Explain how the following trade patterns would be affected by the appreciation of the Japanese yen against the dollar:  (a) Hong Kong exports to Japan and (b) Hong Kong exports to the United States.  1.8 (Ch. 6) Intervention Effects on Bond Prices. U.S. bond prices are normally inversely related to U.S. inflation. If the Fed planned to use intervention to weaken the dollar, how might bond prices be affected? 1.9 (Ch. 6) Effect of High Oil Prices and CB Intervention. During the past decade, oil prices have reached historically high levels, getting to over USD 100 per barrel. Suppose you work for the Central Bank of the UAE, which keeps a fixed FX system (St= 3.6725 AED/USD). The UAE’s economy is dependent on oil exports. (a) Describe the pressures the AED faces due to the increase in oil prices? What does the CB of the UAE have to do in order to support the fixed FX exchange rate? Do the FX reserves increase or decrease in the UAE? (b) What is the impact on the UAE’s domestic money supply and interest rates? (c) How can the CB neutralize (sterilize) the effect of high oil prices on the UAE’s money supply? 1.10 (Ch. 6) Direct ECB Intervention. If most countries in Europe experience a recession, how might the European Central Bank (ECB) use direct intervention in FX markets to stimulate economic growth? What is the effect of this ECB intervention on European Money Markets? 1.11 (Ch. 7) Triangular Arbitrage. Assume the following information: St = .9 USD/CAD St = 1.70 USD/GBP St = 2 CAD/GBP Is triangular arbitrage possible?  If so, explain the steps that would reflect triangular arbitrage, and compute the profit from this strategy (expressed as a % per unit borrowed). What market forces would occur to eliminate any further possibilities of triangular arbitrage? 1.12 (Ch. 7) Covered Interest Arbitrage. Assume the following information: St = 1.50 USD/EUR Ft,90 = 1.48 USD/EUR iEUR = 5.50% iUSD = 3.75% T = 90 days Given this information, is covered interest arbitrage possible? Design a covered arbitrage strategy and calculate its profits. 1.13 (Ch. 7) Covered Interest Arbitrage. Assume the following information: St = 6 ARS/EUR Ft,180 = 6.25 ARS/EUR iEUR = 2% iARS = 7% T = 180 days Given this information, is covered interest arbitrage possible? Design a covered arbitrage strategy and calculate its profits. 1.14 (Ch. 8) Interpreting Inflationary Expectations. If investors in the United States and Canada require the same real interest rate, and the nominal rate of interest is 2 percent higher in Canada, what does this imply about expectations of U.S. inflation and Canadian inflation?  What do these inflationary expectations suggest about future exchange rates? 1.15 (Ch. 8) Estimating Depreciation Due to PPP. Assume that the spot exchange rate of the British pound is USD 1.60.  How will this spot rate adjust according to PPP if the United Kingdom experiences an inflation rate of 5 percent while the United States experiences an inflation rate of 3 percent? 1.16 (Ch. 8) Forecasting the Future Spot Rate Based on IFE. Assume that the spot exchange rate of the Singapore dollar (SGD) is USD .80.  The 180-day interest rate is 3 percent in the United States and 7 percent in Singapore.  What will the spot rate be in 6 months according to the IFE?  (You may use the approximate formula to answer this question.) 1.17 (Ch. 8) Deriving Forecasts of the Future Spot Rate. As of today, assume the following information is available: U.S. Mexico Real rate of interest required by investors 2% 2% Nominal interest rate 3% 9% Spot Rate (St) .13 USD/MXN Oneyear forward rate (Ft,1-yr) .115 USD/MXN a. Use the forward rate to forecast the percentage change in the USD/MXN over the next year. b. Use the differential in expected inflation to forecast the percentage change in the USD/MXN over the next year. (Hint: you can get the expected inflation using Fisher’s formula –i.e., the nominal interest rate is equal to the real interest rate plus expected inflation.) c. Use the spot rate to forecast the percentage change in the USD/MXN over the next year. 1.18. (Ch. 8) Testing Relative PPP. You have data on the SEK/USD and CPI indexes for Sweden and the US from January 1970 to November 1007. You run the following regression: changes in the SEK/USD exchange rate against inflation rate differentials (ISwed-IUS). Below, you have the excel regression output. Let SSR(H0)= 0.37515. Using individual t-tests and a joint F-test, test relative PPP. REGRESSION RESULTSSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.081063264R Square0.006571253Adjusted R Square0.00431346Standard Error0.02901674Observations442ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.0024505380.0024505382.9104767090.088711535Residual4400.3704673330.000841971Total4410.372917871    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Intercept0.000637690.0013871560.4597104910.645951097-0.002088580.003364-0.00209Upper 95.0%X Variable 10.420832810.2466763581.7060119310.088711535-0.063977510.905643-0.063980.003364 1.19 (Ch. 9) Forecasting with a Forward Rate. Assume that the fouryear annualized interest rate in the United States is 9 percent and the fouryear annualized interest rate in Singapore is 6 percent.  Assume interest rate parity holds for a fouryear horizon.  Assume that the spot rate of the Singapore dollar is USD .60.  If the forward rate is used to forecast exchange rates, what will be the forecast for the Singapore dollar’s spot rate in four years?  What percentage appreciation or depreciation does this forecast imply over the fouryear period? 1.20 (Ch. 9) Probability Distribution of Forecasts. Assume that the following regression model was applied to historical quarterly data: ef,t = a0 + a1INTt + a2INFt1 + Еt   where ef,t = percentage change in the USD/JPY exchange rate in period t INTt = interest rate differential between U.S. and Japan (iUS-iJAP) over period t INFt1 = inflation differential between U.S. and Japan (IUS-IJAP) in the previous period a0, a1, a2 = regression coefficients Еt = error term Assume that the regression coefficients were estimated as follows: a0 = 0.0, a1 = 0.9, a2 = 0.8 Also assume that the inflation differential in the most recent period was 3%.  The real interest rate differential in the upcoming period is forecasted as follows: (iUS-iJAP) Probability 0% 30% 1 60% 2 10% If Stillwater, Inc., uses this information to forecast the Japanese yen’s exchange rate, what will be the probability distribution of the yen’s percentage change over the upcoming period? 1.21 (Ch. 10) Assessing Transaction Exposure. Your employer, a large MNC, has asked you to assess its transaction exposure.  Its projected cash flows are as follows for the next year: CurrencyTotal InflowTotal OutflowSt (USD/FC)Danish krone (DKK)DKK 50,000,000DKK 40,000,000 USD .15British pound (GBP) GBP 1,000,000 GBP 2,000,000USD 1.50 Calculate the Net Transaction Exposure (NTE). a) Assume that the movements in the DKK and the GBP are highly correlated. Provide your assessment as to your firm’s degree of transaction exposure (as to whether the exposure is high or low).  Substantiate your answer.  b) Suppose the correlation is equal to 1 –i.e., perfect positive correlation. Suppose the GBP appreciates to 1.65 USD/GBP. What is the new NTE? What is the change in NTE? c) Suppose the correlation is equal to -11 –i.e., perfect negative correlation. Suppose the GBP appreciates to 1.65 USD/GBP. What is the new NTE? 1.22 (Ch. 10) Transaction Exposure. Vegas Corp. is a U.S. firm that exports most of its products to Canada. 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_wп!њ%Š*/'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'Аџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџі/6ііж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ4ж4ж laіlpжZџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ$$If–l!v h#v#vh#vА#vh#v#v :V –l”џі/6і,ж 5ж5жh5жА5жh5ж5ж 9ж /ж џџџџџџрџaіlpжZџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ kdG $$If–l”џжЪ ї _wп!њ%Š*/'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'Аџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'hџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџі/6ііж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџж$џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ4ж4ж laіlpжZџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ$$If–l!v h#v#vh#vА#vh#v#v :V –l”џі/6і,ж 5ж5жh5жА5жh5ж5ж 9ж /ж џџџџџџрџaіlpжZџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ kdS$$If–l”џжЪ ї 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