ࡱ> ` jjbjb ױ|c|c[g+%   Ld 8$4hLT4p(̤ФФ;U aegggggg,R-i7;ii= ФФg===i^ ФФe=X| ` | ie==Rv!( LǦv!D0b=<!=x<d<The Official Language Problem in the European Union Can the New European Simplified Constitution Solve the Problem? Victor Ginsburgh ECARES, Universit Libre de Bruxelles, and CORE, Universit Catholique de Louvain Shlomo Weber Southern Methodist University, Dallas, USA, and CEPR. July 2007 Introduction Multilingualism is an important part of the current political debate almost everywhere, and calls for important challenges and room for policies, which may have economic implications in shaping the flows of interregional or international trade, investment and migrations. Given the uncompromising nature of linguistic conflicts, linguistic policies, and especially, the choice of official languages should take into account the preferences of those groups of individuals whose cultural, societal, historical values and sensibilities could be affected. But multilingualism may also generate important losses. A significant example is the one concerned with patent applications filed with the European Patent Office (EPO). By filing out an application in English, French or German, it is possible to obtain protection in all 31 EPO member countries. However, once the patent is granted by the EPO, it must be validated, translated into each language of the country where the firm wants to be protected, put in force and renewed in each national system. Translation costs alone for the 13 frequently cited countries are estimated at 13,600 euros, while the total filing for 20 years costs 129,000 euros (the same filing costs 16,500 euros in the US and 17,300 euros in Japan). But as Van Pottelsberghe and Franois (2006) point out the total cost is not the only issue. They show that both the incoming workload of examiners and their output is three to four times higher in the US than at the EPO. The length of the procedure is 27 months in the US, and 49 months in Europe. As a consequence, the number of claims (a patent application is composed of an average of 7 claims in Japan, 18 in Europe and 23 in the US) amounts to 1 million in Europe, 3 millions in Japan and 8 millions in the US, though the European market consisting of the 13 countries is the largest. Thus, the choice of the set of official languages has to take into account the sensitivity of a society towards possible disenfranchisement of large groups of citizens (Ginsburgh, Ortuo-Ortin and Weber, 2005) and has to rely on a delicate resolution of the interplay between administrative and cost efficiency, on the one hand, and the rights and desires of various linguistic groups, on the other. In this paper, we discuss some of the problems faced by the European Union (EU) where the linguistic regime is still based on the 1958 Treaty of Rome of full multilingualism and equal treatment of all languages. At the time, this was not a real issue: the so-called Common Market included six countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxemburg and Italy) where only four languages were spoken: Dutch (in Belgium and The Netherlands), French (in Belgium and France), German (in Germany) and Italian (in Italy). In 2007, the EU has grown to 27 countries and 23 official languages, which makes things much more complex and costly. The monetary cost of maintaining these languages amounts to more than one billion euros per year, and the EU has the largest translation and interpretation administration in the world. The short analysis that follows is based on a survey on languages and their use carried out in November 2005. Respondents (about 1,000 in each of the 27 countries) were asked to state their mother tongue and other languages that they speak well enough to have a conversation. We focus on the number of citizens who would be disenfranchised and politically unhappy if the set of EU official languages were limited to a subset. The languages belonging to each such subset is optimal given a fixed number of languages. That is for each number of languages (one, two, etc), we search for the subset(s) of languages that would minimize disenfranchisement of citizens, which is assumed to represent linguistic disutility in a country or in the EU. This makes it possible to check which subset(s) of languages would be supported by the Council of the EU under the simplified new constitution that the heads of the 27 EU governments agreed upon in Brussels on June 23-24, 2007 and that is likely to be implemented in 2014. The prevailing situation on linguistic matters requires unanimity of the Council members. The new constitution rules that on most matters (and linguistic matters may hopefully be included), a proposal will be implemented if it obtains the following (double) qualified majority: 55 percent of the states representing 65 percent of the population. Linguistic Standardization The official policy is full multilingualism and simultaneous interpretation in the European Council, the Economic and Social Committee, and at the plenary sessions of the European Parliament. Likewise all official documents are supposed to be translated into all the member states languages. Meanwhile, in 2004, the vast majority of all EU documents were prepared in English (62 percent), French (26 percent) and German (3 percent). Therefore some non-official standardization is already at work, so the European Commission is unofficially getting there. Leonard Orban, the EU commissioner for languages claims that the Commission launched a strategy aimed at distinguishing which documents should be translated into all the official language, into the three procedural languages (English, French and German), or into one language only. But he also adds that he sees no possibility from the political point of view, zero possibility of decreasing the number of official languages ... My expectation is that from the political point of view, the member states will not accept changing the present linguistic regime at all, so the languages will continue to be on equal footing, and in the long term, the only solution for sustainability of the present linguistic regime is linked with new technologies (automatic translation), other new technologies in interpretation. Without new technologies long term, I'm talking about long term my opinion is that the present linguistic regime is not sustainable." Therefore it is useful to devise some tools that make it possible to find if not an optimal, at least a reasonable, solution backed by some theory as well as by data. One of these is based on the notion of linguistic disenfranchisement (Ginsburgh and Weber, 2005), which quantifies the number of citizens who lose their ability to understand and communicate if their language does not belong to the group of official languages. Let ( be the current set languages spoken in the EU. For any subset T of (, disenfranchisement in country j, dj(T), can be defined as:  EMBED Equation.3  (1) where n j is the population of country j and v j(T) is the number of country js citizens who speak at least one of the languages in T. When comparing disenfranchisement across countries, it is more convenient to express it in terms of disenfranchisement rates:  EMBED Equation.3  (2) The EU-wide disenfranchisement rate, D(T), can be derived analogously. In the sequel, we will assume (2) to represent linguistic disutility of citizens of country j. Table 1 exhibits the disenfranchisement rates for the main and most widely spread languages in each EU27 country. Though English is the most widely known language, it would nevertheless leave 62.6 percent of EU27 citizens disenfranchised had it to be chosen as the only official language. Moreover, there are only seven countries were less than 50 percent of the population would be disenfranchised. But the situation is worse if German, French, Italian or Spanish replaced English. With the exception of English, German, French, Italian and Russian, no language is spoken by more than five percent of the population in more than two EU countries. Interestingly enough, though Russian is not an official language, it disenfranchises less people in the EU27 than many official languages: Bulgarian, Czech, Danish, Estonian, Finnish, Greek, Hungarian, Irish, Latvian, Lithuanian, Maltese, Portuguese, Slovak, Slovenian and Swedish. [Insert Table 1] Younger generations (less than 30 years old) are more fluent in languages. English, however, is the only language for which disenfranchisement rates are significantly lower among the younger generations, though in almost half of the EU countries, disenfranchisement rates are still larger than 50 percent. If English were the only EU language, EU-wide disenfranchisement would drop from 62.6 percent to 44.6 percent in the EU27 if the whole population were as knowledgeable in English as is the young generation. Note that though Russian is well known in Europe, its use does not increase among the young. Determining the optimal set of languages for a multilingual society entails, implicitly or explicitly, a cost-and-benefits analysis. If the costs depend only on the number of languages, the search for an optimal linguistic regime boils down to achieving the lowest possible disenfranchisement for each given number of languages. The analysis that follows is concerned with choosing optimal subsets of languages that minimize EU-wide disenfranchisement in such a framework. Formally, let m be a positive integer. Denote by Tm the subset of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  that minimizes the disenfranchisement rate over all sets with m languages, i.e.  EMBED Equation.3  (3) Obviously, Tm may not be unique. However, this problem does not arise with our dataset, at least for the main languages. The result of such a calculation is given in Table 2, which reports on such subsets. The optimal subset of one language, T1, contains English; T2 contains English and German; T3 consists of English, German and French. For subsequent m > 3, the optimal subsets contain respectively Italian, Spanish, Polish, Romanian, Hungarian, Portuguese, Czech and Greek. [Insert Table 2] The optimal subsets are almost the same (at least for the 10 first languages) if one takes into account disenfranchisement rates faced by the younger generation, that is of those who were less than 30 years old at the time of the survey (end 2005). Political Feasibility of a Linguistic Reform The tools introduced in the preceding subsection can be used to identify which subsets of official languages would enjoy sufficient political support. The decision on the choice of such a subset is inevitably a political one, and boils down to deciding how much disenfranchisement is tolerable. All European countries tolerate a certain degree of disenfranchisement (many regional languages especially are neglected) and it would be natural for the EU to do likewise. We mentioned earlier that decisions on the linguistic regime need a unanimous vote by the Council. As a result, Malta with 0.4 million inhabitants has the same weight as Germany with 90 million citizens. Decision making on linguistic reforms under unanimity is trivial. Any country set to lose would need to be sufficiently compensated in order to throw its support behind the reform proposal. Qualified majority voting (QMV) as suggested by the new simplified constitution is analytically more complex and may need countries to form coalitions in favor or against a reform. We examine under which conditions a linguistic reform could pass, assuming that QMV can be used. For a decision to pass under QMV, the following two requirements have to apply: (a) the proposal must backed by 55 percent of states (15 countries out of 27), and (b) the countries backing the vote must represent 65 percent of the EU population (i.e. 318 million citizens). Formally, let Q be a collection of all subsets in the EU that satisfy both QMV criteria. Obviously, if a subset of countries J belongs to Q, then every other subset J that contains J also belongs to Q. Now for every set of official languages T and disenfranchisement rate r, denote by W(T,r) the set of countries whose disenfranchisement rate, given T, does not exceed r: W(T,r)={j(EU:Dj(T)d"r} (4) The set W(T,r) is increasing with respect to inclusion and with respect to the value of r. That is, if T(T then W(T,r) (W(T ,r) for every r and for every set of languages T, W(T,r) (W(T,r ) whenever r < r . For our analysis it is important to identify the pairs (T,r) for which the corresponding set of countries W(T,r) satisfies both QMV criteria, that is W(T,r)(Q. Given the sequences of languages derived in Section 2, for every value of the disenfranchisement rate r, we define the minimal number of languages m*(r) that guarantees that the set of countries  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 satisfies QMV:  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  (5) Table 3 presents the results of the calculations for the EU27. Note that we cannot take into account the new enlargements that may take place between now and 2014, when QMV may possibly be used. It is thus more an illustration, than a real proposal. Table 3 tabulates the pairs (r, m*(r)) of the minimal number of languages (column 2) and disenfranchisement rate (column 1) needed to pass QMV, based on (5). Two results are shown. [Insert Table 3] The first one (whole population) is based on Table 2, which gives the various optimal sets for given number of languages (between 1 and 11). The first column in this table shows various disenfranchisement rates (from 10 to 50 percent). The next two columns show the number of languages needed to pass either of the two thresholds (55 percent of the number of countries, 65 percent of the EU population) if countries accepted the uniform disenfranchisement rate of column (1) and voted for a reform. The last column shows the minimal number of languages needed to pass both thresholds. For example if each EU27 country finds that a 30 percent disenfranchisement rate is acceptable and votes for a linguistic reform to reduce the number of official languages, then this number can be reduced from 23 to 9. As shown in the note below the table, these languages would be English, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Polish, Romanian, Hungarian, Portuguese, Czech and Greek. This number can be reduced to five, if all countries could agree that a disenfranchisement rate of 50 percent were acceptable. The lower part of the table shows the second result which is based on the assumption that votes cast by countries would rather take into account the young generation (less than 30 years old), whose proficiency in languages is better than the one in the whole population. If this were the case, the number of official languages could be reduced to seven or less, according to the disenfranchisement rate that would be felt acceptable. Note that in both cases, English would be chosen if it were decided that only one language would be official. In the case of two languages, it would be either English and French (whole population) or English and German (generations less than 30 years old). From three on, the languages are the same in both cases. The simulations suggest that a regime with six official languages (English, French, German, Italian, Spanish and Polish) is likely to be accepted. Note that in this group, there is at least one language belonging to each of the main branches of Indo-European languages (Romance, Germanic, Slavic). The group also includes English (which is at some distance of other Germanic languages, see Dyen, Kruskal and Black, 1992), but excludes the Baltic languages (Latvian and Lithuanian), and Greek. Non Indo-European languages (Finnish, Hungarian and Maltese) would also be excluded. The fact that all large languages groups are represented implies that translations to the other languages belonging to the same group would be made somewhat easier. The oddity is the over-representation of Romance languages (French, Italian and Spanish). This results from the combination of two effects. First, the number of speakers of each of these languages in the EU is rather large. Second, the countries in which these three languages are native tend to ignore most other European languages (see Table 1), but Spanish is also an important language spoken by 230 million people worldwide (which not the case of Italian). If implemented, the six-language scenario would result in a disenfranchisement rate of 16 percent (10 percent if one considers the young generation). Adding more languages would lower disenfranchisement. The gains attributable to each additional language would, however, be not only small but also limited to the native country of that language. 4 Conclusions In this paper we analyze the possibility of language policy reform in the EU, and examine whether it could be politically feasible to reduce the number of official languages, instead of finding ad hoc methods to do so without saying. It is nevertheless unlikely that all member states would accept to reduce the number of official languages, unless those populations whose languages are not part of the official language set are properly compensated. This would allow them either to set up their own translation and interpretation practices or to forego linguistic services and divert the transfers to alternative uses, as suggested by Fidrmuc and Ginsburgh (2006). A linguistic reform, such as the one suggested, will change the incentives for acquiring skills in non-native languages. This will, in turn, change the dynamics. The possibility to change the set of official languages after a certain number of years should be built into the basic Treaty or Constitution. References Dyen, I., J. B. Kruskal, and P. Black (1992), An Indo-European classification: A lexicostatistical experiment, Transactions of the American Philosophical Society 82, Philadelphia: American Philosophical Society. Fidrmuc, J. and V. Ginsburgh (2006), Languages in the European Union: The quest for equality and its cost, European Economic Review, forthcoming. Fidrmuc, J., V. Ginsburgh and S. Weber (2007), Ever closer Union or Babylonian discord: The official language problem in the European Union, CEPR Discussion Paper 6367. Ginsburgh, V. and S. Weber (2005), Language disenfranchisement in the European Union, Journal of Common Market Studies 43, 273-286. Ginsburgh, V., I. Ortuo-Ortin and S. Weber (2005), Disenfranchisement in linguistically diverse societies. The case of the European Union, Journal of the European Economic Association 3, 946-965. Ginsburgh, V. and S. Weber (2007), Multilingualism, in L. Blume and S. Durlauf, eds., The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, forthcoming. Ku, H. and A. Zussman (2007), Lingua franca: The role of English in international trade, manuscript, Cornell University. Special Eurobarometer 255: Europeans and their Languages, European Commission, July 2006, Van Pottelsberghe, B. and D. Franois (2006), The cost factor in patent systems, Working Paper CEB06-002, Centre Emile Bernheim, Universit Libre de Bruxelles. Table 1. Disenfranchisement in European Languages: Native and Foreign Languages, Respondents with Basic or No Linguistic Skills (percent) EnglishGermanFrenchItalianSpanishPolishDutchTurkishRussianAustria5519495981001009999Belgium5987299797993299100Bulgaria84949699991001009075Cyprus499895999910010010099Czech Rep.8481981001009810010085Denmark3473979998100100100100Estonia759210010010010010010032Finland69959910010010010010099France809519593100100100100Germany621929998981009892Greece689495981001001009998Hungary92911009910010010010099Ireland198911009999100100100Italy759690397100100100100Latvia85971001001009910010015Lithuania8696991001008710010026Luxemburg611211959910099100100Malta3299956599100100100100Netherlands234381100971001100100Poland82909999100210010088Portugal8598919996100100100100Romania869790989910010010098Slovak Rep.8382991001009810010080Slovenia5979989199100100100100Spain849894992100100100100Sweden3388979999100100100100United Kingdom198919998100100100100EU2762.675.180.186.788.991.695.199.595.4Notes: This table covers only the most widely spread languages in the EU27. Complete tables with all languages can be obtained from the authors upon request. Source: Fidrmuc, Ginsburgh and Weber (2007). Table 2. Disenfranchisement in Various Optimal Language Sets (percent) Number1234567891011LanguagesEN1 + GE2 + FR3 + IT4 + SP5 + PL6 + RO7 + HU8 + PT9 + CZ10 + GRAustria550000000000Belgium5956181818181818181818Bulgaria8481797978787878787777Cyprus494949484848484848480Czech Rep.84696969696767666600Denmark3431313131303030303030Estonia7570707070696969696969Finland6967676767676767676767France8077100000000Germany621111111111Greece686463636363636363630Hungary928585858585840000Ireland11111111111Italy75746911111111Latvia8583838383828282828282Lithuania8682828282717171717171Luxemburg618111111111Malta3231313131313131313131Netherlands2318181818181818181818Poland8277767676111111Portugal8584818179797979000Romania86858180797911111Slovak Rep.8372727272707057574444Slovenia5950504545454545454545Spain848481801111111Sweden3333333333333333333333UK11111111111EU2762.649.337.829.522.416.412.910.99.27.76.2Notes: One language is added in each column, as indicated in the second row. Languages are abbreviated as follows: Czech (CZ), English (EN), French (FR), German (GE), Greek (GR), Hungarian (HU), Italian (IT), Spanish (SP), Polish (PL), Portuguese (PT), and Romanian (RO). Source: Fidrmuc, Ginsburgh and Weber (2007). Table 3. Minimal Number of Languages m* Satisfying QMV for Given Disenfranchisement Rate r ______________________________________________________________________ Acceptable uniform No. of languages necessary to pass Minimum no. disenfranchisement the country the population of languages to rate r (percent) criterion criterion pass QMV (m*) ______________________________________________________________________ Whole population 10 11 5 11 20 9 5 9 30 9 5 9 40 7 4 7 50 5 4 5 Population aged 30 and less 10 7 4 7 20 5 4 5 30 3 4 4 40 2 4 4 50 1 3 3 ______________________________________________________________________ Notes: If voting takes into account the whole population, the order in which languages appear is: (1) = English, (2) = (1) + German, (3) = (2) + French, (4) = (3) + Italian, (5) = (4) + Spanish, (6) = (5) + Polish, (7) = (6) + Romanian, (8) = (7) + Hungarian, (9)= (8) + Portuguese, (10)= (9) + Czech, (11) = (10) + Greek. If voting takes into account the population that is less than 30 years old, the order is: (1) = English, (2) = (1) + French, (3) = (2) + German, (4) = (3) + Italian, (5) = (4) + Spanish, (6) = (5) + Polish, (7) = (6) + Romanian  This paper was presented at the conference Modernization of the Economy and Public Development, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, April 3-5, 2007. It draws on Fidrmuc, Ginsburgh and Weber (2007), though the calculations on the politically feasible choices are new.  This has been the topic of many papers. For a recent paper, see Ku and Zussman (2007) and the references cited there.  See Van Pottelsberghe and Franois (2006).  Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.  Luxemburg had renounced to have Luxemburgisch as an official language, since French and German were also used in this tiny country.  All important EU documents (including all those from the Council) have to be translated into each official language, MEPs have the right to use their official language in the European Parliament, citizens have the right to address the Commission in any official language, the Official Journal of the European Union is published in all official languages, etc.  Special Eurobarometer 255 (2006).  See Orbans interview on http://www.euractiv.com/en/culture/orban-multilingualism-possibility-build-new/article-164306. We are grateful to Jan Fidrmuc for having brought this document to our attention.  See Ginsburgh and Weber (2007), for elaborations on the issue of linguistic utility functions.  The notion of disenfranchisement rate that we use is relatively strict: it comprises both those who do not speak the language in question or say that they only have a basic knowledge of it.  This is mainly due to the fact that the knowledge of Russian is decreasing in the former Eastern bloc countries.  We stopped at m = 11, since no more languages are needed to satisfy political feasibility (see below). See Fidrmuc, Ginsburgh and Weber (2007), for subsets containing more than 11 languages.     PAGE 11  PAGE 12 stvwx ;JK abL  <=ef^ _ ϻƲ梫櫢梫櫲hG9*h`6 jLhG9*h`jhG9*h`0JCJUhG9*h`CJ hG9*h`hG9*h`aJhG9*h`CJaJhG9*h`aJhG9*h`CJaJhG9*h`5CJ aJ jhG9*h`0JUhG9*h`5CJaJ .4vwx !+,-.;Md%dhgd` dh`gd`dhgd`gd` $ a$gd`$a$gd` $ a$gd` $ |a$gd`gd`4cjjjjd; "!""k&|&(*e+ $dha$gd`%gd`%`gd`$ 9!Sdh^Sa$gd`%$ & 0` P@dh1$7$8$H$a$gd`gd`%dhgd` !!!&!'!,!-!/!0!1!L!M!!!!""""""" 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