ࡱ> MOLRg >bjbjVV r<r<5%zz$$$8888p8%^"  6o|@!%#%#%#%#%#%#%$L')tG%$+"++G% 6m\%+8 $6!%+!%V$@ $6r+rQ$ %r%0%]$xr*^r*$r*$$ +++++++G%G%+++%++++r*+++++++++z : May 29, 2011 SOLAR INVESTMENT MODEL (SIM) DESCRIPTION AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR USE Durward P. Jackson, PhD ______________________________________________________________________________ ***Important Notice. There has been a change in the way future resale values are calculated. Although these instructions are not affected, if you have used this model before, your understanding of the results may have changed. Please click on the following link to learn more:  HYPERLINK "http://www.rooftop-solar-investments.org/modelinputs.html" http://www.rooftop-solar-investments.org/modelinputs.html. _______________________________________________________________________________ The Solar Investment Model (SIM) is a calculator for evaluating the financial implications of installing a solar photovoltaic (PV) system. It provides the homeowner with a tool to quickly model different scenarios and obtain the modified internal rate of return (MIRR). The MIRR then can be compared directly to the MIRR (same as APY) of other investments, from savings accounts and CDs to stocks, bonds and real estate. Indeed, the model can calculate the MIRR for any investment (sometimes with a few small adjustments in the value of the assumptions). The model requires making several assumptions about the PV system and the means of financing it. You use the model by entering the values of the assumptions, optionally clicking on a button that automates the calculations and reading the results of the MIRR calculations. You may also use the charting facilities of Microsoft Excel to graph the results. The spreadsheet is locked except for the area where you enter your assumptions. This is to prevent accidental destruction of the formulae. However, there is no password required and you can unlock the entire spreadsheet if you wish. The spreadsheet is open and the formulas and macro are visible to enable you to modify it to better fit your needs. This model is post beta test, but unexpected problems may still appear when you run the model. If this occurs, please contact me at  HYPERLINK "mailto:djackson@rooftop-solar-investments.org" djackson@rooftop-solar-investments.org. Your questions and comments are always appreciated. Description The spreadsheet is divided into two sections. The area at the top is where you enter the values for various assumptions about the system, its financing (if any) and expectations for future years. I will cover it in detail in the next section, but scan it now in the example on the next page to gain some familiarity. The bottom area contains the intermediate results and the MIRRs for each of 30 holding periods. You may note some very strange results in the earlier holding periods for some assumptions, such as MIRRs of 100%. These results can be ignored until the MIRR reaches more normal levels. They occur because of the negative cash flows in the early years and because the MIRR function cannot find a reasonable solution.  Column descriptions Hold Period (Year). This column represents the year (assumed to be December 31 except for Year 0 which is Jan 1 of Year 1) or the ending year of a holding period. Thus, 3 in the table above would be December 31 of Holding Period 3, which would run from Year 0 to Year 3. Loan Amortization. The loan amortization columns provide the interest, principal and loan balance for each year based on the amount financed, term and interest rate that you provide. The total of interest and principal paid is treated as a negative cash flow. Tax Benefit. This is the reduced amount of taxes you would pay each year based on the interest on the loan and your marginal tax rate if you itemize your tax deductions. It is treated as a positive cash flow. Utility Bill Yearly Savings. This is the amount of first-year savings increased yearly by the utility escalation rate. It is treated as a positive cash flow. System Resale Year Value. This is what a comparable PV system is presumed to cost in each year based on the original value minus depreciation. Thus, it is what the homeowner could expect to receive from selling the system, usually as part of a house sale. In the current SIM version 2.0, I have used a hybrid approach for estimating the likely value that a PV system would add to a resale. For the first five years after installation, I assume that the resale value of the PV system at the end of each year is 20 times the savings for that year. In the sixth year, I begin depreciating the system at the depreciation rate entered by the SIM user. When the value falls below the floor (a percent of the installation cost), the floor amount is used as the resale value. For a full discussion on my rationale for doing this, go to  HYPERLINK "http://www.rooftop-solar-investments.org/modelinputs.html" http://www.rooftop-solar-investments.org/modelinputs.html (System resale value, depreciation factor and system price floor.) Cash Flow From Resale. Computes the positive or negative cash flow that would be expected in a year if the house is sold in that year. It is equal to (the system resale year value) + (utility bill savings in that year) + (tax benefit) (annual payment) (loan balance). Cash Flow From Ops. Computes the positive or negative cash flow in each year in which the system is not sold (a normal year). It is equal to the tax benefit (if any) plus the utility bill savings in that year minus any annual loan repayment. Conditional Cash Flow. This column combines the previous two columns so that the cash flow in the final year of the holding period shows up at the end of the holding period and the previous years of the holding period contains the cash flows of the non-resale years. The input value of Holding Period determines the final year of a holding period. MIRR Calc. This column displays the MIRR for a single holding period based on the MIRR cash flow. After the run is complete, you will see the MIRR only for the last holding period (the 30-year holding period), but the results for the previous periods are displayed in the next column. MIRR. The MIRR results for all 30 holding periods for the current run are displayed here. They will be replaced with new values the next time the Calculate MIRR button is clicked. If you are running the model for a single holding period, you must enter the last year of the holding period of interest, and the MIRR will show only in the MIRR Calc column. Instructions for use Unless you are familiar with the terms used below, you may have to dig a little to come up with the numbers you need to run the model. Unlike some similar models, SIM does not provide front-end support for sizing the system, calculating first-year savings or estimating utility rate increases and system depreciation rate. There are three reasons for this: Sizing and first-year savings calculations are straightforward and involve only simple arithmetic. There is plenty of support for this from clubs, contractors, etc in urban areas and internet support (see Links on this web site) for your research. There are regional differences that would unnecessarily complicate the model, such as tiered rates and an infinite variety of incentive plans which are constantly changing. The models focus is on quickly providing rates of return for all holding periods so it can be run multiple times using different assumptions (known as what if scenarios). Once you have gathered the data you need to exercise the model, enter it in the area at the top of the spreadsheet (you cannot enter data in the white area). Values from the above example are provided as defaults, but you can change any by clicking on the box and reentering your assumption for that box. Review the following about the assumptions, but be aware that the default values are specific to Las Vegas in many instances and represent my personal opinion. See Model Inputs on this web site for more information. Cash up Front and Loan Amount. Size the system for your needs and obtain the total system cost. Then decide if you want to pay cash up front or finance all or part of the cost. Enter the cash amount and the amount financed. Interest Rate and Term. If you finance all or part, enter the down-payment (cash-up-front), length of the loan and its rate. Otherwise enter zero. Since the model calculates yearly amortization, make sure you use the annual percentage rate (APY) if financing. Annual Loan Payment Amount. Calculated by the model. Nothing to enter here. Marginal Tax Rate. If you plan to finance all or part of the system and you itemize your tax deductions, combine your state and federal marginal tax rate. Otherwise, use 0. First-Year Savings. Multiply the electric rate for your utility times the number of kilowatt hours you expect to displace by the PV system. This can be a complicated process if you are on a tiered rate structure. You may want to exercise the model for each tier to see how far you should go in reducing your electric bill. Note: the model does not assume any yearly maintenance costs, because they are expected to be minimal. My four-year personal experience has been that the panels do not need to be cleaned (even in dusty Las Vegas) so this is probably one maintenance item that can be eliminated. Other potential maintenance items, such as the panels and inverter, are under long-term warranty. If you want to add a maintenance cost, you can do so by subtracting it from the savings to provide a net annual savings. Electric Utility Rate Escalation. Try to get some historical information on utility rates (try the internet, your utility or the Public Utilities Commission). Most rates have gone up over the past several years by 0-6 percent (I use 4% as the default). The model allows you to see what influence different escalation rates would have on the MIRR. You should run several scenarios with different rates of increase. Be careful here. This is a number often inflated by contractors, who may quote you a number as high as 10% or more. System Depreciation Rate. The yearly decline in prices on installed PV systems is a surrogate for the value an existing PV system adds to the house if it is sold. The models default is 10% because that is what I have personally experienced in Las Vegas over the last three years, but various web sources have put the number at anywhere between 6 and 20 percent for PV modules. This is due to constantly improving technology and production efficiencies, not a decline in PV output. Some even claim the system (and therefore the house) appreciates rather than depreciates. A recent study ( HYPERLINK "http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/reports/lbnl-4476e.pdf" http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/reports/lbnl-4476e.pdf ) shows a statistically significant relationship between the savings and the resale price of the home. For an explanation of how SIM uses the depreciation rate, see the discussion on calculating the resale value of a PV system at  HYPERLINK "http://www.rooftop-solar-investments.org/modelinputs.html" http://www.rooftop-solar-investments.org/modelinputs.html. Reinvestment APY. This is necessary because the model uses MIRR rather than the IRR. MIRR is a better gauge of financial performance because IRR assumes reinvestment of earnings (from the savings on the power bill) at the same rate as the calculated IRR. It would not be possible for most homeowners to find investments that earn as much as a PV system. The solution is to use the modified internal rate of return, which requires specification of the homeowner/investors minimum acceptable rate of return, say 2% on a CD or 3% on a 10-year Treasury. If you insist on using IRR, unlock the spreadsheet and change the MIRR calc column to use the IRR formula. The MIRR also requires the loan rate APR to finance any negative cash flows. This is the same as the yearly interest rate on the loan specified earlier if there is a loan involved. If there is no loan involved, it is irrelevant since there are no negative cash flows other than for Year 0 (i.e., the beginning of Year 1). System Price Floor. The default is assumed to be 50% of the total system cost. Although like other electronic equipment, the price of PV modules and inverters are likely to fall further, the cost of wiring and other components and labor have a braking effect on how much overall system cost can fall. My personal experience is that labor was about 25% of the total system cost after rebates and tax credits. Holding Period (Years). Probably the single most important what if for most homeowners considering a PV system is the same as for a remodel: Does it add value to my house? What is the effect on my rate of return for different holding periods if I have to sell? This requires computing the MIRR for each of 30 different holding periods if the time horizon is 30 years. Fortunately, you do not have to enter the holding period for each of the thirty years (although you could do so). By clicking on the Calculate MIRR button, a macro (small program) will do this for you and temporarily store all 30 MIRRs (until the model is run again). I recommend that you always use the button and remember to click on it after entering each new set of assumptions. When you do so you will be asked to enter the cost of capital. Just enter your loan rate if you are taking out a loan and any rate or 0 if you are not (this rate is not relevant to all-cash up front.). Caution: if you fail to click the button after entering each new set of assumptions, the MIRR column will still show the results from the previous run.     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Warning Text? Warning Text %XTableStyleMedium9PivotStyleLight16SSheet1xSheet2>Sheet3 Macro1:2>v 3 A@@  =6BillYearlySavingsValueCashBalanceResaleMIRRFlowYearCalcTaxBene-fit HoldPeriodSystemFirst-year savingsAnnual payment Loan AmortizationUtilityInterest Principal k CASH FLOW AND MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (MIRR)M FromOps Cash up front Loan amount Interest rateMarginal tax rate Term of loanHolding periodReinvestment rate (APY)System price floorCon-ditional(ExitYear)O SOLAR INVESTMENT MODEL9 $Copyright 2010 by Durward P. Jackson/Disclaimer: The purpose of this spreadsheet is3 to assist the user in understanding the impact2 of the various variables that determine the 5 modified internal rate of return. It should not. be used for personal financial decisions.# (Power rate) X (Yearly PV output)System resale value factor KNOWN VALUES:PROJECTED VALUES:Utility KWH rate escalation:N NO*OOP Q|R4c =_MA   dMbP?_*+%&?'?(?)?M Brother HL-2140 series  odXXLetterPRIV $@''''d! pX7 '''' ,@ DJENGLISHBRSP107A.EXEBRLHL07A.DLLBRB1L07A.DLLBO2140.INI CONFIDENTIALHArialdArialSunMonTueWedThuFriSatJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecdDPJBRLHL07A.DLLEOSC"d,,333333?333333?&43U} } m} } m } $} } I }  } $} } } $} } $} $} $} I} } } m} } $}  } $ V@V@V@V@V@x@V@x@ V@ x@ V@ x@ V@x@V@x@V@2z{||||}{{{~^O SOLAR INVESTMENT MODEL9 ````````  `` 8 /Disclaimer: The purpose of this spreadsheet isVM t````ttty < 3 to assist the user in understanding the impactt KNOWN VALUES: ```PROJECTED VALUES:ttty ; 2 of the various variables that determine the  t````ttty > 5 modified internal rate of return. It should not Cash up front~ q`First-year savings~ q@,t# (Power rate) X (Yearly PV output) ty 7 . be used for personal financial decisions.2@`ttty Loan amount~ q|@$Utility KWH rate escalation~ w@tty   2``ttty   Interest rate ~ s @ # System resale value factor ~ w$@ tty - $Copyright 2010 by Durward P. 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