ࡱ> xzw  bjbjT~T~ 466"C422uuuuu8d%t rr !!!kpmpmpmpmpmpmpsXvZmpYumpuu!!q###u!u!kp#kp##Eh m!P Y$ej<Wpq0 rj0v!vxmm&vum`0,"#Njmpmp" rv2 ;: Chapter 6 Sections 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 Statistical inference is the next topic we will cover in this course. We have been preparing for this by 1) describing and analyzing data (graphs and plots, descriptive statistics), 2)discussing the ways to find and/or generate data (studies, samples, experiments) and 3) we have studied sampling distributions. We are now ready for statistical inference. The purpose of statistical inference is to draw conclusions about population parameters based on data which came from a random sample or from a randomized experiment. Data (statistics) are used to infer population parameters. We will learn in this chapter the two most prominent types of statistical inference, confidence intervals for estimating the value of a population mean and tests of significance which weigh the evidence for a claim concerning the population mean. Section 6.1 Estimating the population mean, , with a stated confidence: A confidence interval for the population mean, , includes a point estimate and a margin of error. The point estimate is a single statistic calculated from a random sample of units. For example,  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 , the sample mean, is a point estimate of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 , the population mean. However sample means fluctuate, so we need to adjust our point estimate by adding and subtracting a margin of error, thus creating a confidence interval. The following general formula may be used when the population sigma is known: ___ % Confidence Interval:  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  margin of error , where Margin of error =  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  For the Normal Distribution the following values for Z* apply: For a 90% Confidence Interval Z* = 1.645 For a 95% Confidence Interval Z* = 1.960 For a 99% Confidence Interval Z* = 2.576 Example: You want to estimate the population mean SAT Math score for the high school seniors in California. You give a test to a simple random sample of 500 high school seniors in CA. The mean score for your sample, X =461. The population standard deviation is known to be  = 100. For the SAT Math scores, a 95 % confidence interval for would be : This Confidence Interval was calculated using a procedure which gives a correct interval (Contains the Population Mean), 95% of the times it is used. Another example: Suppose we wish to estimate  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 , the population mean driving time between Lafayette and Indianapolis. We select a SRS of n = 25 drivers. The observed sample mean is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  = 1.10 hours. Lets assume that we know the population standard deviation of X is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  hours. A 95 % confidence interval for would be: Again, the procedure gives a correct interval 95% of the times it is used. Suppose we selected another sample of 25 driving times and obtained an  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  = 1.00 hours. If we calculate a 95% confidence interval for  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  based on  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  we get (0.804, 1.196) which is a different interval estimate. Which interval is correct? We dont know. If we repeatedly selected SRS of 25 drivers, and for each SRS, we calculated a 95% confidence interval for  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 , the population mean, in the long-run, 95% of the intervals will contain the true value of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . They will all be different, but 95 % of them will include the true mean and will therefore be considered correct. And the other 5% will not include the true mean . We have no way to know whether a given Confidence Interval is correct or incorrect. Confidence level vs Width of Confidence Interval: Suppose X, Bobs golf scores, have a normal distribution with unknown population mean but we believe the population standard deviation  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  = 3. A SRS of n=16 units is selected and a sample mean of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  = 77 is observed. Calculate a 90% confidence interval for  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Use Z* = 1.645 Calculate a 95% confidence interval for  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Use Z* = 1.960 Calculate a 99% confidence interval for  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Use Z* = 2.576 As you can see from these calculations, raising the confidence level requires a larger Z* value, which increases the margin of error and produces a wider confidence interval. There is a trade-off between the precision of our estimate and the confidence we have in the result. Higher confidence level requires a wider interval. The margin of error also depends on sample size. A larger sample size will result in a smaller margin of error. In fact, quadrupling the sample size will cut the margin of error in half. Calculating the sample size for a desired margin of error: The confidence interval for a population mean will have a specified margin of error m when the sample size is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  Example: You are planning a survey of starting salaries for recent liberal arts major graduates from your college. From a pilot study you estimate that the population standard deviation is about $8000. What sample size do you need to develop a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error of $500 maximum? Always round a sample size number with any decimals up to the next whole number. Never drop the decimals and round down. Some Cautions: The above formulas do not correct the data for any unknown bias. Consequently, if the data are biased, then ANY inferences based on those data are also biased. This includes biases arising from nonresponse, undercoverage , response error or hidden bias in experiments. Because the sample mean is not resistant, confidence intervals are not resistant to outliers. When the population being sampled is not normally distributed, the sample size needs to be at least 30 in order to have the sample mean be normally distributed. This is the Central Limit Theorem. Always plot the data to check normality. Typically we do not know the population standard deviation,  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . When  is not known we will use the t procedures which will be introduced in Chapter 7. Interpretation Of A Confidence Interval: Any value in a confidence interval is considered a possible value for , including the end points. Any value not included in the confidence interval is considered an unlikely value for . Section 6.2 TESTS OF SIGNIFICANCE (HYPOTHESIS TESTING) The second type of statistical inference is a significance test which assesses evidence provided by data regarding some claim about the population mean. Based on a random sample from the population, we want to determine if a the population mean has changed upward, downward, or in either direction. Because the null hypotheses represents the established or accepted mean value, we want to use the data to determine, statistically, if we can reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. The four steps for a Test of Significance/Hypothesis Tests: Step 1. State the Null and Alternative Hypothesis: Null Hypothesis  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 : The statement being tested in a statistical test is called the null hypothesis. The test is designed to assess the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis. Usually the null hypothesis is a statement of no effect or no difference or status quo.  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  Alternative Hypothesis  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 : The claim about the population mean that we are trying to find evidence for. Choose one of the following hypotheses.  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  one side right  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  one side left  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  two side Step 2. Find the test statistic: If  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is the value of the population mean  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  specified by the null hypothesis, the one-sample z statistic is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  Step 3. Calculate the p-value. For one sided left tests: the P Value = P(Z d" z), the area in the left tail. For one side right tests: the P Value = P(Z e" z), the area in the right tail. For two sided tests: the P Value = 2P(Z e" |z|) , the area in the right and left tail Step 4. State conclusions in terms of the problem. The value of  defines how much evidence we require to reject Ho. Then, compare the p-value to the  level. This is usually stated in the problem. If p-value = or < , then reject  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Strong evidence exists against Ho. If p-value > , then fail to reject  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Insufficient evidence exists& .. Generally the value chosen for  is one of the following three:  = .01 strictest burden of proof of these three values  = .05  = .10 easiest burden of proof of these three values. Your conclusion should be in this form: If the p-value =<  we say that we have sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternate hypothesis, using the words of the original problem. If the p-value >  we say that we do not have sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis, using the words of the original problem. Even though  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is what we hope or believe to be true, our test gives evidence for or against  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 only. We never prove  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  true; we can only state whether we have enough evidence to reject  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  (which is evidence in favor of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 , but not proof that  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is true) or that we dont have enough evidence to reject  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Example 1, A one sided hypothesis test: Bob s golf scores are historically normally distributed with = 77 strokes and  = 3 strokes. Bob has recently made two  improvements to his game, and he thinks his scores should be lower. Bob has played 9 rounds since these improvements. His scores are: 77 73 74 78 78 75 75 74 71 Sample Mean = 75 Does this data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that Bobs population mean is reduced, ie, < 77? Null Hypothesis: Ho: = 77 Status Quo or Established Norm Alternate Hypothesis: Ha: < 77 Improvement Since we know that Bobs golf scores are normally distributed, the sampling distribution of the sample mean of 9 rounds must also be normally distributed. The standard deviation of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  = 1 stroke. The logic of the hypothesis test: If  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is true, then  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  If  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is false and  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is true, then  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  for some value  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Values of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  close to 77 would tend to support  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  and values that are much lower than 77 would provide evidence against  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 and in favor of Ha. From the sample of Bobs last 9 scores we get a sample mean of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Can we conclude that we should reject  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  in favor of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 ? We need to calculate the P-value. Assuming that Ho is true, we calculate the probability  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  The calculation says that if Ho is true, the probability that Xbar would be < 75 solely due to random chance is .0228, or 2.28%. For this example let us use  = .05. Because the probability of obtaining a sample  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is less than  we would reject EMBED Equation.DSMT4 and conclude it is more likely that < 77. Example 2. What if Bob had only obtained the first 5 scores. In this case, we get a sample mean of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  and  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Then the P Value  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  which is much greater than , meaning that an Xbar value of 76 or lower could occur by chance alone 22.66% of the time when Ho is true. This is not strong evidence that the population mean has changed. So we would fail to reject  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Example 3, A two sided hypothesis test: Bob has a drivers license that gives his weight as 190 pounds. Bobs license is coming up for renewal. Lets test whether Bobs weight is different from 190 pounds using a test of significance. Lets assume that Bobs weight is approximately normally distributed with a population standard deviation of 3 pounds. Bobs last four weekly weights are: 193 194 192 191 Sample Mean = 192.5= X We ask if this data provides sufficient evidence to say that Bob s weight has changed. (Two side hypothesis wording because direction is not implied) Null Hypothesis: Ho: = 190 No change Alternate Hypothesis: Ha: `" 190 Changed. Two side hypothesis Again, the parameter value specified in the null hypothesis usually represents no change, or the status quo. The suspected change in the parameter value is stated by the alternative hypothesis. Calculate Z: (192.5-190) / (3/sqrt(4)) = 1.67 Calculate P Value: Tail probability = .0475 For two side tests we must double the tail probability. P Value = 2 ( .0475) = .0950 which is the probability in both tails. Reach a conclusion using  = .05: Since the P Value is greater than , we have insufficient evidence to reject Ho. We lack sufficient evidence to say it has changed. Bob s weight could still be 190. 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What if  had been .10 instead of .05? We would then have sufficient evidence to reject Ho and say it has changed. Example 4: A shipment of machined parts has a critical dimension that is normally distributed with mean 12 centimeters and standard deviation 0.1 centimeters. The acceptance sampling team suspects that the dimension is less than 12 centimeters. They take a simple random sample of 25 of these parts and obtain a mean of 11.99. Is the acceptance sampling team correct in their assertions? Use an  level of 0.01. Confidence Intervals and Two-Sided Tests: A level  two-sided significance test rejects a hypothesis  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  exactly when the value  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  falls outside a level 1- confidence interval for  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Example using the weight on Bob s drivers license: Bob s data: 193 194 192 191 Sample Mean = 192.5 It was assumed that  = 3 for the population of Bob s weights. Calculate 95% Confidence Interval: 192.5 + / - 1.960 ( 3 / sqrt 4) (189.56 , 195.44) From Page 8 and 9, a 2 side hypothesis test using  = .05 failed to reject Ho, meaning that Bob s weight could still be 190. You can see that this result is consistent with the 95% confidence interval above, since 190 is included in the confidence interval. If we repeated this example and calculated a 90% confidence interval we would get (190.03, 194.97) If  = .10 the hypothesis would reject Ho meaning that Bob s weight is different from 190. You can see that this result is consistent with the 90% confidence interval since 190 is not included in the interval. Two side hypotheses will reject Ho when a confideVX^`rƸ<>lnprҹԹֹع>@nļԥԖԄsԖaPԖ!jϯhhfCJEHUaJ#j5C hhfCJUVaJ!jhhfCJEHUaJ#jۜ7C hhfCJUVaJjhhfCJUaJhhf5CJaJhhlCJaJhlCJaJhfCJaJhXfCJaJhhfCJaJh;VMCJaJhXah;VM5CJaJhXahf5CJaJnprtzܺ4ZrvBDFHTԼּ@º²ª²™zzqiaiiUh)h)5CJaJhXfCJaJh)CJaJhO5CJaJhkhA^CJaJhk5CJaJhOhA^CJaJhA^5CJaJhkCJaJh:dCJaJhOCJaJh'CJaJhhfCJaJjhhfCJUaJ!jhhfCJEHUaJ#j\5C hhfCJUVaJ!vFHּ~gdf^d9whwV#j5C hhfCJUVaJjhhfCJUaJhhfCJaJhhf>*CJaJhhf5CJaJhf5CJaJhA^5CJaJhk5CJaJhO5CJaJUh ^X5CJaJhOh)CJaJh)h)5CJaJhkCJaJhlCJaJhOCJaJh)CJaJnce interval does not include o, provided that  and the confidence level are equivalent.  99% confidence level is equivalent to  =.01 A 95% confidence level is equivalent to = .05 A 90% confidence level is equivalent to = .10 Section 6.3 Use and Abuse of Tests: Choosing a Level of Significance: If we want to make a decision based on our test, we choose a level of significance in advance. We do not have to do this, however, if we are only interested in describing the strength of our evidence. If we do choose a level of significance in advance, we must choose  by asking how much evidence is required to reject  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . The choice of  depends on the type of study we are doing. If the value for  is not given, use  = .05 Some Cautions about Statistical tests: As with CIs, badly designed surveys or experiments often produce invalid results. Formal statistical inference cannot correct basic flaws in data collection. As with CIs, tests of significance are based on laws of probability. Random sampling or random assignment of subjects to treatments ensures that these laws apply. Statistical significance is not the same thing as practical significance. There is no sharp border between significant and non significant, onl9(m<  & Fgdfgdf "(4N;<÷ԬԘԖԎ{sosososoka[a hHS0JjhHS0JUhHSh1jh1UhfhfCJaJhRECJaJhfCJaJUh/CJaJhhf>*CJaJhhRECJaJh)hf5CJaJh)5CJaJh)CJaJhhfCJaJjhhfCJUaJ!jThhfCJEHUaJy increasingly strong evidence as the P-value gets smaller. It is possible that a non-significant result is due to the sample size being too small. Larger sample sizes are capable of detecting smaller shifts.     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