ࡱ> 3C[u%bjbj ,ΐΐ{ zz+>-000$'0'0'0Pw0, < '0]]Z D9U9UOUUX* dlhWWWWWWW$fYi^X0 XX^X X/L/8OULU]jjj 0U0UWj WjjIUUm_'0.MW!]<]]bNi* iUi0U4j Bvj~…H 4j4j4jXX"H4j4j4j]] i4j4j4j4j4j4j4j4j4jz *:  +  " )/ ,+% !, # .)% !#)!". ''! && !1>@=8: AB0B59 >4 @540:F859 0;5@88 @094, .. !;54752A:>3>, .. "C@G8=0. '  @>5:B >AA89A:>3> "@0=A3C<0=8AB8G5A:>3> 2865=8O. >A:20 2010 ! /   ##), B.3 Contents  TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108120" 8;; 6>9. >G5<C <K =5 =C6=K 1C4CI5<C.  PAGEREF _Toc223108120 \h 5  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108121" 5@=>@ 8=46. "5E=>;>38G5A:0O !8=3C;O@=>ABL  PAGEREF _Toc223108121 \h 32  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108122" 8: >AB@><. #3@>7K ACI5AB2>20=8N: =0;87 AF5=0@852 G5;>25G5A:>3> 2K<8@0=8O 8 4@C38E ?>4>1=KE >?0A=>AB59.  PAGEREF _Toc223108122 \h 42  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108123" 2545=85  PAGEREF _Toc223108123 \h 42  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108124" 1. "8?>;>38O @8A:>2  PAGEREF _Toc223108124 \h 43  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108125" 2. 8A:8 ACI5AB2>20=8N  PAGEREF _Toc223108125 \h 43  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108126" 3. #=8:0;L=>ABL ?@>1;5<K C3@>7 ACI5AB2>20=8N  PAGEREF _Toc223108126 \h 44  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108127" 4. ;0AA8D8:0F8O @8A:>2 ACI5AB2>20=8N  PAGEREF _Toc223108127 \h 46  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108128" 5. 7@K2K (Bangs)  PAGEREF _Toc223108128 \h 46  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108129" 6. !C65=8O (Crunches)  PAGEREF _Toc223108129 \h 51  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108130" 7. !:@8?K (Shrieks)  PAGEREF _Toc223108130 \h 53  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108131" 8. AE;8?K  PAGEREF _Toc223108131 \h 54  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108132" 9. ?@545;5=85 25;8G8=K 25@>OB=>AB8 @8A:>2 ACI5AB2>20=8N  PAGEREF _Toc223108132 \h 55  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108133" 10. 5:><5=40F88, :0A0NI85AO AB@0B5388 8 MB8:8  PAGEREF _Toc223108133 \h 60  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108134" K@065=8O ?@87=0B5;L=>AB8  PAGEREF _Toc223108134 \h 65  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108135" @8;>65=85: >G5@: M2>;NF8>==>3> 2AE;8?0  PAGEREF _Toc223108135 \h 65  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108136" 81;8>3@0D8O  PAGEREF _Toc223108136 \h 67  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108137" ;8575@ .4:>2A:8. >3=8B82=K5 8A:065=8O, ?>B5=F80;L=> 2;8ONI85 =0 >F5=:C 3;>10;L=KE @8A:>2.  PAGEREF _Toc223108137 \h 74  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108138" 2545=85  PAGEREF _Toc223108138 \h 74  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108139" 1. >ABC?=>ABL 8=D>@<0F88  PAGEREF _Toc223108139 \h 75  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108140" 2. =B5;;5:BC0;L=0O >H81:0, A2O70==0O A> 7=0=85< 704=8< G8A;><. (Hindsight bias)  PAGEREF _Toc223108140 \h 76  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108141" 3. '5@=K5 ;51548. (Black Swans)  PAGEREF _Toc223108141 \h 77  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108142" 4. H81:8 2 A8BC0F8OE A ;>38G5A:8<   PAGEREF _Toc223108142 \h 78  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108143" 5. H81>G=>ABL @0AAC645=89, 2K720==0O MDD5:B>< ?>4B25@645=8O (Confirmation bias)  PAGEREF _Toc223108143 \h 81  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108144" 6. /:>@5=85, =0AB@>9:0 8 =0;>65=85 (Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination).  PAGEREF _Toc223108144 \h 84  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108145" 7. 0AAC645=8O, >1CA;>2;5==K5 0DD5:B><.  PAGEREF _Toc223108145 \h 86  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108146" 8. @5=51@565=85 <0AHB01><  PAGEREF _Toc223108146 \h 87  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108147" 9. 0;81@>2:0 8 A25@EC25@5==>ABL  PAGEREF _Toc223108147 \h 88  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108148" 10. ?0B8O ?@>E>653>  PAGEREF _Toc223108148 \h 91  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108149" >A;54=55 ?@54C?@5645=85  PAGEREF _Toc223108149 \h 92  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108150" 0:;NG5=85  PAGEREF _Toc223108150 \h 93  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108151"  5:><5=4C5<>5 GB5=85  PAGEREF _Toc223108151 \h 96  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108152" 81;8>3@0D8O  PAGEREF _Toc223108152 \h 96  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108153" E;8575@ .4:>2A:8. A:CAAB25==K9 8=B5;;5:B :0: ?>78B82=K9 8 =530B82=K9 D0:B>@ 3;>10;L=>3> @8A:0.  PAGEREF _Toc223108153 \h 103  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108154" 8: >AB@><, 0:A "53<0@:. 0A:>;L:> =525@>OB=0 :0B0AB@>D0 AC4=>3> 4=O?  PAGEREF _Toc223108154 \h 151  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108155" 8: >AB@><. 0AAC645=85 > >=F5 !25B0 4;O =0G8=0NI8E.  PAGEREF _Toc223108155 \h 158  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108156" 8: >AB@><. Doomsday Argument 682 8 1@K:05BAO.  PAGEREF _Toc223108156 \h 162  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108157" 8: >AB@><.  =5 6825< ;8 <K 2 0B@8F5? >:070B5;LAB2> <5B>4>< <>45;8@>20=8O  PAGEREF _Toc223108157 \h 173  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108158" M284 @8=. !8=3C;O@=>ABL 8 :>H<0@K.  PAGEREF _Toc223108158 \h 180  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108159"  >15@B $@59B0A. @>1;5<0 !5@>9 !;878.  PAGEREF _Toc223108159 \h 202  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108160" 8;0= '8@:>28G, 8G0@4 0B:0@B. 5>-8=65=5@8O, ?>H54H0O =0A<0@:C: =>2>5 G0AB=>5 @5H5=85 ?0@04>:A0 $5@<8.  PAGEREF _Toc223108160 \h 230  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108161" 8;0= '8@>:>28G. -2>;NF8>==K5 :0B0AB@>DK 8 ?@>1;5<0 B>G=>9 =0AB@>9:8 ?0@0<5B@>2 ?@83>4=>9 4;O 687=8 ?;0=5BK. (@>1;5<0 >;48;>:A)  PAGEREF _Toc223108161 \h 245  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108162" ;5:A59 "C@G8=. @8@>4=K5 :0B0AB@>DK 8 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8?  PAGEREF _Toc223108162 \h 259  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108163" 2545=85  PAGEREF _Toc223108163 \h 261  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108164" 1. =B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8?. -DD5:B =01;N40B5;L=>9 A5;5:F88. 57C;LB0BK >AB@><0 8 "53<0@:0.  PAGEREF _Toc223108164 \h 262  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108165" 2. @8@>4=K5 :0B0AB@>DK  PAGEREF _Toc223108165 \h 270  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108166" 3. @8<5=5=85 0=B@>?=>3> ?@8=F8?0 4;O 0=0;870 G0AB>BK ?@8@>4=KE :0B0AB@>D.  PAGEREF _Toc223108166 \h 274  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108167" 4. 0@CH5=85 CAB>9G82>AB8 ?@8@>4=KE A8AB5<, =0E>4OI8EAO =0 3@0=8 @02=>25A8O, 2 A2O78 A G5;>25G5A:>9 45OB5;L=>ABLN  PAGEREF _Toc223108167 \h 284  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108168" 5. 0:;NG5=85  PAGEREF _Toc223108168 \h 286  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108169" 8B5@0BC@0:  PAGEREF _Toc223108169 \h 288  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108170" ;048A;02 CABK=A:89. >A;54AB28O ?045=8O =0 5<;N :@C?=KE 0AB5@>84>2  PAGEREF _Toc223108170 \h 290  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108171" #8;LO< 59?L5@. ?0A=>ABL :><5B 8 0AB5@>84>2  PAGEREF _Toc223108171 \h 300  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108172" 1. 5GB> 2@>45 >3@><=>9 3>@K  PAGEREF _Toc223108172 \h 300  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108173" 2.0: G0AB> ?> =0< 1LNB?  PAGEREF _Toc223108173 \h 301  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108174" 3. -DD5:BK AB>;:=>25=8O.  PAGEREF _Toc223108174 \h 306  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108175" 4. >;L ?K;8.  PAGEREF _Toc223108175 \h 309  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108176" 5. 075<=0O ?@>25@:0?  PAGEREF _Toc223108176 \h 311  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108177" 6. 5>?@545;Q==>AB8  PAGEREF _Toc223108177 \h 312  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108178" 09:; 0<?8=>. !C?5@2C;:0=87< 8 4@C385 :0B0AB@>D8G5A:85 35>D878G5A:85 ?@>F5AAK.  PAGEREF _Toc223108178 \h 316  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108179" 3. C;:0=8G5A:0O 78<0.  PAGEREF _Toc223108179 \h 319  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108180" 5. !25@E-8725@65=8O 8 G5;>25G5A:0O ?>?C;OF8O.  PAGEREF _Toc223108180 \h 324  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108181" 6. '0AB>B0 A25@E8725@65=89.  PAGEREF _Toc223108181 \h 325  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108182" 7. ;8O=85 A25@E8725@65=8O =0 F828;870F8N.  PAGEREF _Toc223108182 \h 326  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108183" @=>= 0@. ;8O=85 A25@E=>2KE, 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2, A>;=5G=KE 2A?KH5: 8 :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 =0 75<=CN >:@C60NICN A@54C.  PAGEREF _Toc223108183 \h 338  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108184"  8G0@4 5@@83M=. !;54C5B ;8 >15770@06820BL A83=0;K SETI?  PAGEREF _Toc223108184 \h 360  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108185" .. "C@G8=. ;>10;L=K5 @8A:8, A2O70==K5 A ?@>3@0<<>9 SETI.  PAGEREF _Toc223108185 \h 374  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108186" -4@80= 5=B. @8B8G5A:89 >17>@ >F5=>: @8A:>2 3;>10;L=KE :0B0AB@>D.  PAGEREF _Toc223108186 \h 394  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108187" . . >=>=>2. 45>;>38G5A:85 =0G0;0 >1I59 B5>@88 =5C=8GB>68<>AB8 G5;>25G5AB20  PAGEREF _Toc223108187 \h 420  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108188" #3@>7K C=8GB>65=8O G5;>25G5AB20  PAGEREF _Toc223108188 \h 420  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108189" 5C=8GB>68<>ABL :0: 3;02=0O A25@E7040G0 F828;870F88  PAGEREF _Toc223108189 \h 421  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108190" 0G5AB20 =5C=8GB>68<>9 F828;870F88  PAGEREF _Toc223108190 \h 424  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc223108191"  =5>1E>48<>AB8 @07@01>B:8 B5>@5B8G5A:8E >A=>2 @5H5=8O 7040G =5C=8GB>68<>AB8 G5;>25G5AB20  PAGEREF _Toc223108191 \h 425  @>1;5<K ?@54>B2@0I5=8O 3;>10;L=KE @8A:>2, C3@>60NI8E ACI5AB2>20=8N G5;>25G5A:>9 F828;870F88. @548A;>285. .. "C@G8=. ?@54AB02;5=85 02B>@>2. >AB@><. =0;87 AF5=0@852 2K<8@0=8O. .4:>2A:8. >3=8B82=K5 8A:065=8O .4:>2A:8. A:CAAB25==K9 8=B5;;5:B :0: D0:B>@ 3;>10;L=>3> @8A:0 0:A "53<0@: 8 8: >AB@><. 0A:>;L:> =525@>OB=0 :0B0AB@>D0 AC4=>3> 4=O? >AB@><. Doomsday argument 682 8 1@K:05BAO. >AB@><. 0AAC645=85 > >=F5 A25B0 4;O =0G8=0NI8E M284 @8=. !8=3C;O@=>ABL 8 :>H<0@K. .$@59B0A. @>1;5<0 !5@>9 !;878. CRN. ?0A=>AB8 <>;5:C;O@=>3> ?@>872>4AB20. 8;0= '8@:>28G, 8G0@4 0B:0@B. 5>-8=65=5@8O, ?>H54H0O =0A<0@:C: =>2>5 G0AB=>5 @5H5=85 ?0@04>:A0 $5@<8. '8@:>28G. @> 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8? AB0BLO.- . :5@@83M=. !;54C5B ;8 >15770@06820BL A83=0;K SETI? . "C@G8=.  2>7<>6=KE @8A:0E ?@>3@0<<K SETI. -4@80= 5=B. @8B8G5A:89 >17>@ >F5=>: @8A:>2 3;>10;L=KE :0B0AB@>D. . >=>=>2. 040G0 =5C=8GB>68<>AB8 G5;>25G5AB20. CABK=A:89. 045=85 0AB5@>84>2. "C@G8=. @8@>4=K5 :0B0AB@>DK 8 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8? ;NA =04> 4>1028BL: 8;; 6>9 >AB@><  <0B@8F0 @=>= 40@ 59?5@ . 5425452. >;L B@0=A3C<0=87<0 :0: 845;>;>38G5:>9 >A=>2K 4;O ?@54>B2@0I5=8O 3;>10;L=KE @8A:>2 0H0 %0;BC@8=0  45<>3@0D8O 8 0;LBCA?? . 0;8=5F:89 -??? 5:;5AA0. ??? .. !;54752A:89 - =5>?@545;Q==>ABL??? . @094  !>F80;L=K5 <5B>4K C?@02;5=8O @8A:0<8 "C@G8= @>1;5<0 A>740=8O C1568I. .. 09F52. 1>A=>20=8O 157>?0A=>AB8 ?@>3@0<<K METI. ??? .. 20I5=:>. 7<5=5=85 :;8<0B0 8 87<5=5=85 F8:;>2 >1@0I5=8O ?0@=8:>2KE 307>2 2 A8AB5<5 0B<>AD5@0-;8B>AD5@0-384@>AD5@0 - >1@0B=K5 A2O78 <>3CB 7=0G8B5;L=> CA8;8BL ?0@=8:>2K9 MDD5:B. ..0@=0CE>2.  2>?@>AC >1 CAB>9G82>AB8 E8<8G5A:>3> 10;0=A0 0B<>AD5@K 8 B5?;>2>3> 10;0=A0 5<;8. "C@G8=. B M:>=><8G5A:>3> :@878A0 : 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>D5: B@8 2>7<>6=KE <0@H@CB0 1C4CI53>. 5@525AB8 Robin Hansen article  Catastrophe, a social collapse and human extinction 8;; 6>9. >G5<C <K =5 =C6=K 1C4CI5<C. ?C1;8:>20=> =0 @CAA:>< 2 6C@=0;5 ><?LNB5@@0 2 20013. B ?5@52>4G8:0: 2B>@>< AB0BL8, ?5@2>=0G0;L=> >?C1;8:>20==>9 2 6C@=0;5  Wired , O2;O5BAO 8;; 6>9 - 70254CNI89 =0CG=>9 G0ABLN 8 A>>A=>20B5;L 0<5@8:0=A:>9 :><?LNB5@=>9 :><?0=88 "Sun Microsystems". 8;; 6>9 - G5;>25:-;535=40, >48= 87 >BF>2 BSD Unix, @07@01>BG8: ?@>3@0<< csh 8 vi ("071C:0" 4;O :064>3> A?5F80;8AB0 ?> Unix). 6>9 AK3@0; 2 8AB>@88 Java >4=C 87 3;02=KE @>;59, >AB020OAL 70G0ABCN 70 AF5=>9. 01>B0; 2 A0<>< F5=B@5 :><0=4K BSD Unix; CA>25@H5=AB2>202 ?@>B>:>; TCP/IP 4;O @01>BK =0 Ethernet, 0 =5 B>;L:> =0 50 :18B/A5: ;8=8OE Arpanet, 8;; 6>9 A45;0; 2>7<>6=K< ?>O2;5=85 Internet. ><?LNB5@K Sun A @01>B0NI59 =0 =8E A8AB5<>9 BSD Unix >:070;8AL =081>;55 =04Q6=K<8 :>@01;O<8 4;O TCP/IP, ACI5AB25==0O 4>;O 2A5E E>AB-:><?LNB5@>2 4;O Web ?>-?@56=5<C O2;ONBAO <0H8=0<8 >B Sun. 5@52>4: ;LO A8?>2 <ilja_osipov@mail.ru> @838=0; =0 A09B5  Wired : "Why the future doesn't need us", Bill Joy 0H8 =081>;55 <>3CI5AB25==K5 B5E=>;>388 21-3> 25:0 - @>1>B>B5E=8:0, 35==0O 8=65=5@8O 8 =0=>B5E=>;>38O - C3@>60NB ?>425@3=CBL G5;>25G5A:89 @>4 >?0A=>AB8. @02AB25==K5 87<5@5=8O =>2KE B5E=>;>389 15A?>:>8;8 <5=O A B>3> <><5=B0, :0: O AB0; 70=8<0BLAO 8E A>740=85<, => B>;L:> >A5=LN 1998-3> 3>40 O A B@52>3>9 ?>=O;, =0A:>;L:> 25;8:8 >?0A=>AB8, A :>B>@K<8 <K AB>;:=Q<AO 2 21-< 25:5. / <>3C 40B8@>20BL =0G0;> <>59 B@52>38 4=Q<, :>340 O 2AB@5B8; MO C@F259;0 (Ray Kurzweil), 70A;C65==> ?@>A;02;5==>3> 87>1@5B0B5;O ?5@2>9 G8B0NI59 <0H8=K 4;O A;5?KE 8 <=>38E 4@C38E C4828B5;L=KE 25I59. / 8 M9 >10 1K;8 4>:;04G8:0<8 =0 :>=D5@5=F88 Telecosm 6>@460 8;45@0, 8 O 2AB@5B8; 53> A;CG09=> 2 3>AB8=8G=>< 10@5 ?>A;5 B>3>, :0: >:>=G8;8AL =0H8 70A540=8O. / A845; A 6>=>< !8@;>< , D8;>A>D>< 87 5@:;8, @01>B02H8< =04 87CG5=85< A>7=0=8O. >:0 <K 15A54>20;8, ?>4>HQ; M9 8 702O70;AO @073>2>@, ?@54<5B :>B>@>3> ?@5A;54C5B <5=O ?> A59 45=L. / ?@>?CAB8; @073>2>@ MO 8 C?CAB8; B5<C @073>2>@0, 0 >=8 B5?5@L =0G0;8 :0: @07 B0<, 345 >AB0=>28;8AL. 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"5E=>;>38G5A:0O !8=3C;O@=>ABL 5@52>4 - ;53 0=8;>2. http://www.computerra.ru/think/35815/ Vernor Vinge "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era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[%>GC ?>1;03>40@8BL 6>=0 M@@>;;0 8 #=825@A8B5B HB0B0 0;8D>@=8O 2 !0=-853> 8 >20@40 M284A>=0 87 Sun Microsystems 70 ?><>IL 2 >1AC645=88 8 ?>43>B>2:5 40==>9 AB0BL8.] 8: >AB@><. #3@>7K ACI5AB2>20=8N: =0;87 AF5=0@852 G5;>25G5A:>3> 2K<8@0=8O 8 4@C38E ?>4>1=KE >?0A=>AB59. 5@52>4: .. "C@G8= Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards Nick Bostrom, PhD Faculty of Philosophy, Oxford University www.nickbostrom.com [Published in the Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002. First version: 2001] ;03>40@O CA:>@5=8N B5E=>;>38G5A:>3> ?@>3@5AA0, G5;>25G5AB2>, 2>7<>6=>, 1KAB@> ?@81;8605BAO : :@8B8G5A:>9 B>G:5 2 A2>5< @0728B88.  4>?>;=5=85 : E>@>H> 8725AB=K< C3@>70<, 2@>45 O45@=>3> E>;>:>AB0, ?5@A?5:B82K 1KAB@> @072820NI8EAO B5E=>;>389, B0:8E :0: =0=>A8AB5<K 8 <0H8==K9 8=B5;;5:B, ?@5?>4=>AOB =0< 15A?@5F545=B=K5 2>7<>6=>AB8 8 @8A:8. 0H5 1C4CI55 8 B>, 1C45B ;8 C =0A 2>>1I5 1C4CI55, 7028A8B >B B>3>, :0: <K A?@028<AO A MB8<8 2K7>20<8.  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aul, 1999) 8 ?> MB>9 ?@8G8=5 <>65B 1KBL =54>AB0B>G=> ?>AB02;O5<> @K=:>< (Feldman, 1980). #3@>7K ACI5AB2>20=8N O2;ONBAO C3@>7>9 4;O :064>3> 8 <>3CB B@51>20BL @50:F88 =0 <564C=0@>4=>< C@>2=5. #2065=85 : =0F8>=0;L=><C AC25@5=8B5BC =5 O2;O5BAO 70:>==K< 8728=5=85< 4;O ?@>20;0 2 ?@8=OB88 :>=B@<5@ ?@>B82 206=59H8E C3@>7 ACI5AB2>20=8N. A;8 <K ?@8=8<05< 2> 2=8<0=85 1;03>?>;CG85 1C4CI8E ?>:>;5=89, B> CI5@1 >B C3@>7 ACI5AB2>20=8N C<=>605BAO =0 5I5 >48= D0:B>@, :>B>@K9 7028A8B >B B>3>, CG8BK205< ;8 <K 8 =0A:>;L:> 1C4CICN ?>;L7C (Caplin, Leahy 2000; Schelling 2000: 833 837). #4828B5;L=>, 2 284C =5>A?>@8<>9 206=>AB8 B5<K, :0: <0;> A8AB5<0B8G5A:>9 @01>BK A45;0=> 2 MB> >1;0AB8. '0AB8G=> MB> >1JOA=O5BAO B5<, GB> =081>;55 A5@L57=K5 @8A:8 ?@>8AE>4OB (:0: <K ?>:065< 2 40;L=59H5<) >B >68405<KE 1C4CI8E B5E=>;>389, :>B>@K5 <K B>;L:> =5402=> =0G0;8 ?>=8<0BL. @C3>9 G0ABLN >1JOA=5=8O <>65B 1KBL =587156=> <5648AF8?;8=0@=0O 8 C<>7@8B5;L=0O ?@8@>40 ?@54<5B0 8AA;54>20=89.  >BG0AB8, ?@5=51@565=85 <>65B 1KBL >1JOA=5=> =565;0=85< 4C<0BL 2A5@L57 =0 45?@5AA82=K5 B5<K. 7 MB>3> =5 A;54C5B, GB> <K 4>;6=K 2?0ABL 2 C=K=85, => =C6=> 1@>A8BL B@572K9 273;O4 =0 B>, GB> <>65B ?>9B8 =5?@028;L=>, GB>1K <K A<>3;8 A>74020BL =0456=K5 AB@0B5388 4;O C;CGH5=8O =0H8E H0=A>2 =0 2K6820=85. 'B>1K A45;0BL MB>, <K 4>;6=K 7=0BL, =0 G5< D>:CA8@>20BL =0H8 CA8;8O. 4. ;0AA8D8:0F8O @8A:>2 ACI5AB2>20=8N K 1C45< 8A?>;L7>20BL A;54CNI85 4 :0B53>@88 4;O :;0AA8D8:0F88 @8A:>2 ACI5AB2>20=8N: 7@K2K (Bangs)  >7=8:H0O =0 5<;5 @07C<=0O 687=L 8AB@51;O5BAO 2 @57C;LB0B5 >B=>A8B5;L=> 2=570?=>9 :0B0AB@>DK, <>3CI59 ?@>87>9B8 :0: 2 @57C;LB0B5 =5AG0AB=>3> A;CG0O, B0: 8 =0<5@5==>. !C65=8O (Crunches)  !?>A>1=>ABL G5;>25G5AB20 @0728BLAO 2 ?>ABG5;>25G5AB2> =5>1@0B8<> ?>2@5645=0, E>BO ;N48 ?@>4>;60NB :0:8<-B> >1@07>< 68BL. !:@8?K (Shrieks)  5:0O D>@<0 ?>ABG5;>25G5AB20 1C45B 4>AB83=CB0, => MB> 1C45B B>;L:> G@572KG09=> C7:0O 4>;O A?5:B@0 2>7<>6=>3> 8 65;05<>3>. AE;8?K (Whimpers)  >ABG5;>25G5A:0O F828;870F8O 2>7=8:05B, => @0728205BAO 2 =0?@02;5=88, 254CI5< ?>AB5?5==>, => 1572>72@0B=> : ?>;=><C 8AG57=>25=8N 25I59, :>B>@K5 <K F5=8<, 8;8 : A>AB>O=8N, 345 MB8 F5==>AB8 @50;87CNBAO B>;L:> 2 <0;>9 AB5?5=8 >B B>3> C@>2=O, :>B>@K9 1K <>3 1KBL 4>AB83=CB. >>@C65==K5 B0:>9 :;0AA8D8:0F859, <K <>65< =0G0BL 0=0;878@>20BL =081>;55 25@>OB=K5 AF5=0@88 2 :064>9 :0B53>@88. ?@545;5=8O B0:65 ?@>OA=OBAO ?> <5@5 =0H53> ?@>42865=8O. 5. 7@K2K (Bangs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rexler 1985, 1992; Merkle et al. 1991: 187 195; Freitas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rexler 1985)). >MB><C, A:>@55 2A53>, 1C45B ?5@8>4 CO728<>AB8, 2 B5G5=85 :>B>@>3> =5>1E>48<> =5 4>?CAB8BL ?>?040=8O MB8E B5E=>;>389 2 =5?@028;L=K5 @C:8. "0:65 MB8 B5E=>;>388 <>3CB >:070BLAO B@C4=K<8 4;O C?@02;5=8O 8<8, ?>A:>;L:C =5 B@51CNB @54:8E @048>0:B82=KE 87>B>?>2 8;8 >3@><=KE, ;53:> >1=0@C68205<KE 702>4>2, :0: MB> 8<55B <5AB> ?@8 ?@>872>4AB25 O45@=>3> >@C68O (Drexler 1985). 065 5A;8 MDD5:B82=0O 70I8B0 >B >3@0=8G5==>9 =0=>B5E=>;>38G5A:>9 0B0:8 1C45B A>740=0 4> B>3>, :0: >?0A=K5 @5?;8:0B>@K 1C4CB @07@01>B0=K 8 ?@8>1@5B5=K A:;>==K<8 : A0<>C189AB2C @568<0<8 8;8 B5@@>@8AB0<8, 2A5 5I5 >AB05BAO >?0A=>ABL 3>=:8 2>>@C65=89 <564C 3>AC40@AB20<8, 2;045NI8<8 =0=>B5E=>;>38O<8. #B25@6405BAO (Gubrud 2000), GB> <>;5:C;O@=>5 ?@>872>4AB2> ?@82545B : 1>;LH59 =5AB018;L=>AB8 3>=:8 2>>@C65=89 8 : 1>;LH59 =5AB018;L=>AB8 2 >B=>H5=88 :@878A>2, G5< O45@=K5 2>>@C65=8O. 5AB018;L=>ABL 3>=:8 2>>@C65=89 >7=0G05B, GB> 4;O :064>9 A>@52=CNI59AO AB>@>=K 1C4CB 4><8=8@>20BL AB@5<;5=8O CA8;8BL A2>5 2>>@C65=85, ?@82>4OI55 : AB@5<8B5;L=><C @0A:@CG820=8N 3>=:8 2>>@C65=89. 5AB018;L=>ABL 2 >B=>H5=88 :@878A>2 >7=0G05B, GB> 4;O :064>9 AB>@>=K 3;02=K< AB@5<;5=85< 1C45B C40@8BL ?5@2K<. 20 ?@81;878B5;L=> >48=0:>2> A8;L=KE ?@>B82=8:0, ?@8>1@5BO =0=>B5E=>;>38G5A:>5 >@C685, =0G=CB, A MB>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O, <0AA>2>5 ?@>872>4AB2> 8 :>=AB@C8@>20=85 2>>@C65=89, :>B>@>5 ?@>4>;68BAO 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 =5 A;CG8BAO :@878A 8 =5 =0G=5BAO 2>9=0, ?>B5=F80;L=> A?>A>1=0O 2K720BL 2A5>1I55 >:>=G0B5;L=>5 C=8GB>65=85. ">, GB> MB0 3>=:0 2>>@C65=89 <>3;0 1K 1KBL ?@54A:070=0, =5 O2;O5BAO 30@0=B859 B>3>, GB> <564C=0@>4=0O A8AB5<0 157>?0A=>AB8 1C45B A>740=0 2>2@5<O  GB>1K ?@54C?@548BL MBC :0B0AB@>DC. /45@=0O 3>=:0 2>>@C65=89 <564C !!!  8 !( 1K;0 ?@54A:070=0, =>, B5< =5 <5=55, A;CG8;0AL. 5.2. /45@=K9 E>;>:>AB !( 8 >AA8O ?>-?@56=5<C 8<5NB >3@><=K5 70?0AK O45@=KE 2>>@C65=89. > ?@82545B ;8 ?>;=>F5==0O O45@=0O 2>9=0 : @50;L=><C 8AB@51;5=8N G5;>25G5AB20? B<5BLB5, GB>: (0) 4;O B>3>, GB>1K MB> AB0;> @8A:>< ACI5AB2>20=8N, 4>AB0B>G=>, GB>1K <K =5 1K;8 C25@5=K, GB> MB>3> =5 A;CG8BAO. (1) :;8<0B8G5A:85 MDD5:BK H8@>:><0AHB01=>9 O45@=>9 2>9=K <0;>8725AB=K (5ABL 25@>OB=>ABL O45@=>9 78<K). (2) 1C4CI85 3>=:8 2>>@C65=89 <564C AB@0=0<8 =5 <>3CB 1KBL 8A:;NG5=K, 8 MB> <>65B ?@825AB8 : 2>7=8:=>25=8N 5I5 1>;LH8E 0@A5=0;>2, G5< B5, GB> ACI5AB2>20;8 2 @0730@ E>;>4=>9 2>9=K. 8@>2>9 70?0A ?;CB>=8O CAB>9G82> 2>7@0AB05B 8 4>AB83 25;8G8=K 2 2 000 B>==, GB> ?@8<5@=> 2 45AOBL @07 1>;LH5, G5< >AB05BAO 2 1>53>;>2:0E (Leslie 1996: 26). 065 5A;8 =5:>B>@K5 ;N48 ?5@5682CB :@0B:>2@5<5==K5 MDD5:BK O45@=>9 2>9=K, >=0 <>65B ?@825AB8 : :>;;0?AC F828;870F88. '5;>25G5A:0O @0A0, 682CI0O 2 CA;>28OE :0<5==>3> 25:0, <>65B 1KBL (0 <>65B 8 =5 1KBL) 1>;55 AB>9:>9 : 2K<8@0=8N, G5< 4@C385 284K 682>B=KE. 5.3. K 6825< 2 A8<C;OF88, 8 >=0 2K:;NG05BAO >65B 1KBL 4>:070=>, GB> 38?>B575, 1C4B> <K 6825< 2 :><?LNB5@=>9 A8<C;OF88, A;54C5B ?@8?8A0BL 7=0G8B5;L=CN 25@>OB=>ABL (Bostrom 2001). A=>2=0O 845O, ;560I0O 2 >A=>25 B0: =07K205<>3> >:070B5;LAB20 A8<C;OF88, A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> >3@><=K5 :>;8G5AB20 2KG8A;8B5;L=>9 <>I=>AB8 <>3CB 1KBL 4>ABC?=K 2 1C4CI5< (Moravec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ostrom 2001), 1K;> 1K 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=> =5G5AB=> ?@5=51@530BL 2K:;NG5=85< A8<C;OF88 :0: 2>7<>6=>9 ?@8G8=>9 8AB@51;5=8O G5;>25G5AB20. 5.4. ;>E> 70?@>3@0<<8@>20==K9 AC?5@8=B5;;5:B >340 <K A>74048< ?5@2>5 AC?5@8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>5 CAB@>9AB2> (Moravec 1989, 1998, 1999; Vinge 1993; Bostrom 1998; Kurzweil 1999; Hanson et al. 1998), <K <>65< A45;0BL >H81:C 8 7040BL 5<C F5;8, :>B>@K5 =0?@02OB 53> =0 C=8GB>65=85 G5;>25G5AB20, 5A;8 CG5ABL 53> :>;>AA0;L=>5 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>5 ?@58<CI5AB2>, 40NI55 A8;C A45;0BL MB>. 0?@8<5@, <K <>65< >H81>G=> 2>725AB8 F5;L 1>;55 =87:>3> C@>2=O 2 AB0BCA A25@EF5;8. 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(Yudkowsky 2001)). 5.5. 5=5B8G5A:8 A:>=AB@C8@>20==K9 18>;>38G5A:89 >1J5:B  @57C;LB0B5 >3@><=>3> ?@>3@5AA0 35=5B8G5A:8E B5E=>;>389, :>B>@K9 ?@>8AE>48B A59G0A, <>65B >:070BLAO 2>7<>6=K< 4;O B8@0=0, B5@@>@8AB0 8;8 AC<0AH54H53> A>740BL 28@CA :>=F0 A25B0: >@30=87<, :>B>@K9 1C45B A>2<5I0BL 4;8B5;L=K9 ?5@8>4 ;0B5=B=>AB8 A 2KA>:>9 28@C;5=B=>ABLN 8 A<5@B5;L=>ABLN (National Intelligence Council 2000). ?0A=K5 28@CAK <>3CB 1KBL 4065 2K@0I5=K =5=0@>G=>, :0: =5402=> ?@>45<>=AB@8@>20;8 02AB@0;89A:85 8AA;54>20B5;8, :>B>@K5 A>740;8 <>48D8F8@>20==K9 28@CA <KH8=>9 >A?K (mousepox Ectromelia virus) A> 100% A<5@B5;L=>ABLN, :>340 ?KB0;8AL A:>=AB@C8@>20BL 28@CA-:>=B@0F5?B82 4;O <KH59, GB>1K 8A?>;L7>20BL 53> 4;O :>=B@>;O 3@K7C=>2-2@548B5;59 (Nowak 2001). %>BO MB>B :>=:@5B=K9 28@CA =5 70@0605B ;N459, ?>4>7@5205BAO, GB> 0=0;>38G=K5 87<5=5=8O C25;8G0B A<5@B5;L=>ABL 28@CA0 G5;>25G5A:>9 >A?K. ">, GB> CA8;8205B 2>7<>6=CN >?0A=>ABL 745AL  MB> B>, GB> 8AA;54>20=85 1K;> 1KAB@> >?C1;8:>20=> 2 >B:@KB>9 =0CG=>9 ;8B5@0BC@5 (Jackson et al. 2001: 1479 1491). 54:> C2848HL, GB>1K 8=D>@<0F8O, A>740==0O 2 >B:@KBKE 18>B5E=>;>38G5A:8E ?@>5:B0E, E@0=8;0AL 1K 2 A5:@5B5, =57028A8<> >B B>3>, =0A:>;L:> AC@>2>9 ?>B5=F80;L=>9 >?0A=>ABLN >=0 >1;0405B - 8 B> 65 >B=>A8BAO : 8AA;54>20=8O< 2 =0=>B5E=>;>38OE. 5=5B8G5A:0O <548F8=0 ?@82545B : A>740=8N ;CGH8E ;5:0@AB2 8 20:F8=, => =5B =8:0:8E 30@0=B89, GB> >1>@>=0 2K45@68B 3>=:C A =0?045=85<. (065 A;CG09=> A>740==K9 28@CA <KH8=>9 >A?K 8<5; 50% A<5@B5;L=>ABL =0 20:F8=8@>20==KE <KH0E.)  :>=F5 :>=F>2, >?0A=>AB8 18>;>38G5A:>3> >@C68O <>3CB 1KBL ?>E>@>=5=K @0728B85< =0=><548F8=K, => E>BO =0=>B5E=>;>388 8<5NB :>;>AA0;L=K9 4>;3>2@5<5==K9 ?>B5=F80; 4;O <548F8=K (Freitas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oresight Institute 2000). > MB>9 ?@8G8=5 A;CG09=>5 =5?@028;L=>5 ?@8<5=5=85 =0=>1>B>2 B@52>68B 3>@074> <5=LH5, G5< 7;>=0<5@5==>5 (Drexler 1985; Freitas 2000; (Foresight Institute 1997 1991). 4=0:>, @07;8G85 <564C A;CG09=K< 8 =0<5@5==K< <>65B AB0BL @0A?;K2G0BK<. %>BO, 2 ?@8=F8?5, :065BAO 2>7<>6=K< A45;0BL 3;>10;L=K5 =0=>B5E=>;>38G5A:85 :0B0AB@>DK >G5=L <0;>25@>OB=K<8, :>=:@5B=K5 >1AB>OB5;LAB20 <>3CB =5 ?>72>;8BL @50;87>20BLAO MB><C 8450;L=><C C@>2=N 157>?0A=>AB8. !@02=8B5 =0=>B5E=>;>38N A O45@=>9 B5E=>;>3859. ! 8=65=5@=>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O, @07C<55BAO, 2>7<>6=> 8A?>;L7>20BL O45@=CN B5E=>;>38N B>;L:> 2 <8@=KE F5;OE, =0?@8<5@, B>;L:> 2 O45@=KE @50:B>@0E, :>B>@K5 8<5NB =C;52CN 25@>OB=>ABL C=8GB>68BL 2AN ?;0=5BC. > =0 ?@0:B8:5 >:070;>AL =52>7<>6=K< 871560BL 8A?>;L7>20=8O O45@=KE B5E=>;>389 B0:65 8 4;O A>740=8O O45@=>3> >@C68O, GB> ?@825;> : 3>=:5 2>>@C65=89. @8 =0;8G88 O45@=KE 0@A5=0;>2 2KA>:>9 AB5?5=8 1>52>9 3>B>2=>AB8 =5871565= 2KA>:89 @8A: A;CG09=>9 2>9=K. ">65 A0<>5 <>65B A;CG8BLAO A =0=>B5E=>;>38O<8: 8E <>3CB 70AB028BL A;C68BL 2>5==K< F5;O< B0:8< A?>A>1><, :>B>@K9 <>65B A>740BL =587156=K9 @8A: A5@L57=KE ?@>8AH5AB289.  =5:>B>@KE A8BC0F8OE <>65B 1KBL 4065 AB@0B538G5A:8 2K3>4=> =0@>G=> A45;0BL =5:CN B5E=>;>38N 8;8 :>=B@>;L=CN A8AB5<C @8A:>20==>9, =0?@8<5@, GB>1K A>740BL ?@8=F8?80;L=> =5?@54A:07C5<CN C3@>7C, 2 :>B>@>9 2A5340 5ABL M;5<5=B A;CG09=>AB8 - (Schelling 1960). 5.7. 5GB> =5?@542845==>5 0< =5>1E>48<0 B0:0O >1J548=ONI0O :0B53>@8O. K;> 1K 3;C?> 25@8BL, GB> <K C65 ?@84C<0;8 8 A?@>3=>78@>20;8 2A5 7=0G8B5;L=K5 C3@>7K. 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A;8 1K, 459AB28B5;L=>, ;CGH5 1K;> 1K =5 ACI5AB2>20BL (:0: !8;5= A:070; F0@N 840AC 2 3@5G5A:>< <8D5 8 :0: 4>:07K20; @BC@ (>?5=30CM@ (Schopenhauer 1891), E>BO ?> ?@8G8=0<, A2>9AB25==K< :>=:@5B=> 53> D8;>A>DA:>9 A8AB5<5, >= =5 038B8@>20; 70 A0<>C189AB2>), B> B>340 1K <K =5 AG8B0;8 MB>B AF5=0@89 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>D>9. @54?>;>65=85 > B><, GB> 1KBL 682K<  =5?;>E>, =04> @0AA<0B@820BL :0: ?>4@07C<5205<>5 ?@54?>;>65=85 2 >?@545;5=88 7@K2>2. H81>G=>5 2A5>1I55 A0<>C189AB2> O2;O5BAO @8A:>< ACI5AB2>20=8N, E>BO 53> 25@>OB=>ABL :065BAO G@572KG09=> <0;>9. (>;LH5 =0 B5<C MB8:8 G5;>25G5A:>3> 2K<8@0=8O A<. 3;02C 4 87 (Leslie 1996: 26).) 5.8. 0B0AB@>DK 2 @57C;LB0B5 D878G5A:8E M:A?5@8<5=B>2 "@52>38 :>=AB@C:B>@>2 0B><=>9 1><1K 87 0=EMBB5=A:>3> ?@>5:B0 ?> ?>2>4C B>3>, GB> 27@K2 ?@82545B : 2>73>@0=8N 0B<>AD5@K, 8<5NB A>2@5<5==K5 0=0;>38. K;8 @0AAC645=8O > B><, GB> M:A?5@8<5=BK =0 1C4CI8E 2KA>:>M=5@35B8G=KE CA:>@8B5;OE G0AB8F <>3CB 2K720BL @07@CH5=85 <5B0AB018;L=>3> A>AB>O=8O 20:CC<0, 2 :>B>@><, 2>7<>6=>, =0E>48BAO =0H :>A<>A, ?@52@0I0O 53> 2 ?>4;8==K9 20:CC< A <5=LH59 M=5@35B8G5A:>9 ?;>B=>ABLN (Coleman, Luccia 1980: 3305 3315). -B> A>740AB @0AH8@ONI89AO ?C7K@L 2A5>1I53> C=8GB>65=8O, :>B>@K9 @0A?@>AB@0=8BAO ?> 2A59 30;0:B8:5 8 70 55 ?@545;K A> A:>@>ABLN A25B0, @0748@0O 2AN <0B5@8N =0 G0AB8 ?> <5@5 ?@>42865=8O. @C3>9 84559 O2;O5BAO B>, GB> M:A?5@8<5=BK =0 CA:>@8B5;5 <>3CB A>740BL >B@8F0B5;L=> 70@O65==K5 AB018;L=K5 AB@0==K5 G0AB8FK (strangelets) (38?>B5B8G5A:0O D>@<0 O45@=>9 <0B5@88) 8;8 ?>@>48BL <8:@>A:>?8G5A:CN G5@=CN 4K@C, :>B>@0O ?>3@C78BAO 2 F5=B@ 5<;8 8 =0G=5B ?>3;>I0BL 2AN >AB0;L=CN ?;0=5BC (Dar et al. 1999: 142 148). 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CB5H5AB28O, B>@3>2;O 54>9 8 687=L 2 3>@>40E  2A5 MB> 7=0G8B5;L=> 2>7@>A;> 2 A>2@5<5==>5 2@5<O, 45;0O ?@>I5 2>7<>6=>ABL 4;O =>2>9 1>;57=8 1KAB@> 70@078BL 1>;LHCN G0ABL =0A5;5=8O 5<;8. 5.10. !B>;:=>25=85 A 0AB5@>84>< 8;8 :><5B>9 ABL @50;L=K9, => >G5=L <0;5=L:89 @8A:, GB> <K 1C45< 8AB@51;5=K C40@>< 0AB5@>840 8;8 :><5BK (Morrison et al. 1994). ;O B>3> GB>1K 2K720BL 2K<8@0=85 G5;>25G5AB20, C40@ONI55 B5;>, 2>7<>6=>, 4>;6=> 8<5BL @07<5@ 1>;55 1 :< 2 480<5B@5 (8, 25@>OB=>, 3 6 :<.) K;>, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, ?OBL, 0, <>65B 1KBL, 8 1>;55 4N68=K <0AA>2KE 2K<8@0=89 =0 5<;5, 8, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, =5:>B>@K5 87 =8E 1K;8, 25@>OB=>, 2K720=K AB>;:=>25=8O<8. (Leslie 1996: 81 f).  G0AB=>AB8, 2K<8@0=85 48=>702@>2 65 <8;;8>=>2 ;5B =0704 A2O7K20;>AL A ?045=85< 0AB5@>840 @07<5@>< 10-15 :< 2 480<5B@5 =0 ?>;C>AB@>25 .:0B0=. !G8B05BAO, GB> B5;> 1 :< 8;8 1>;55 2 480<5B@5 AB0;:8205BAO A 5<;59 2 A@54=5< @07 2 ?>;<8;;8>=0 ;5B. K ?>:0 :0B0;>3878@>20;8 B>;L:> <0;CN G0ABL ?>B5=F80;L=> >?0A=KE B5;. 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A;8 : B><C 2@5<5=8 AB0=5B 2>7<>6=> A45;0BL B0:>5 <8@>2>5 ?@028B5;LAB2> CAB>9G82K< >B=>A8B5;L=> <OB5659 (A ?><>ILN ?@>428=CB>3> ?>;8F59A:>3> =047>@0 8;8 B5E=>;>389 :>=B@>;O C<0), MB> <>65B =02A5340 70:@KBL 2>7<>6=>ABL 4;O G5;>25G5AB20 @0728BLAO 4> ?>ABG5;>25G5A:>3> C@>2=O. 82=K9 >2K9 8@ ;4>A0 %0:A;8 O2;O5B A>1>9 H8@>:> 8725AB=K9 AF5=0@89 MB>3> B8?0 (Huxley 1932). 8@>2>5 ?@028B5;LAB2> <>65B =5 1KBL 548=AB25==>9 D>@<>9 A>F80;L=>3> @02=>25A8O, :>B>@>5 <>65B =5>1@0B8<> ?>2@548BL ?@>3@5AAC. =>385 @538>=K <8@0 A53>4=O 8<5NB 1>;LH85 B@C4=>AB8 2 A>740=88 CG@5645=89, 045:20B=KE B5<?0< @>AB0.  8AB>@8G5A:>9 @5B@>A?5:B825 1K;> <=>3> A;CG052, :>340 ?@>3@5AA AB>O; =0 <5AB5 8;8 >B:0BK20;AO =0704 =0 7=0G8B5;L=CN 48AB0=F8N. -:>=><8G5A:89 8 B5E=>;>38G5A:89 ?@>3@5AA <>65B =5 1KBL =0AB>;L:> =587156=K<, :0: MB> :065BAO =0<. 6.3. 02;5=85 2K@>645=8O >7<>6=>, GB> ?@>428=CB>5 F828;87>20==>5 >1I5AB2> =C6405BAO 2 B><, GB>1K 2 =5< 1K;0 4>AB0B>G=> 1>;LH0O 4>;O 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=> >40@5==KE ;N459. !59G0A :065BAO, GB> 8<55BAO =530B82=0O :>@@5;OF8O 2 =5:>B>@KE <5AB0E <564C 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>ABLN 8 D5@B8;L=>ABLN. A;8 B0:0O A5;5:F8O ?@>4;8BAO 2 B5G5=85 4;8B5;L=>3> ?5@8>40 2@5<5=8, <K <>65< @0728BLAO 2 <5=55 <>73>28BKE, => 1>;55 @07<=>60NI8EAO ACI5AB2, homo philoprogenitus (;N18B5;L 1>;LH>3> G8A;0 >B?@KA:>2).4=0:>, 2>?@5:8 B><C, GB> <>3CB 70AB028BL ?>4C<0BL MB8 @0AAC645=8O, IQ D0:B8G5A:8 7=0G8B5;L=> 2K@>A 2 B5G5=85 ?>A;54=53> AB>;5B8O. -B> 8725AB=> :0: MDD5:B $;8==0; A<. =0?@8<5@ (Flynn 1987: 171 191; Storfer 1999). 5 >?@545;5=>, >4=0:>, A>>B25BAB2C5B ;8 MB> @50;L=K< 4>AB865=8O< 2 206=KE 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=KE DC=:F8OE. >;55 B>3>, 35=5B8G5A:0O 8=65=5@8O 1KAB@> ?@81;8605BAO : B>G:5, : B><C 2@5<5=8, :>340 @>48B5;8 A<>3CB =045;OBL A2>8E >B?@KA:>2 35=0<8, :>@@5;8@CNI8<8 A 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=K<8 A?>A>1=>ABO<8, D878G5A:8< 74>@>2L5<, 4>;3>68B5;LAB2>< 8 4@C38<8 65;0B5;L=K<8 G5@B0<8.  ;N1>< A;CG05, 2@5<5==0O H:0;0 5AB5AB25==>9 G5;>25G5A:>9 35=5B8G5A:>9 M2>;NF88 :065BAO A;8H:>< 1>;LH>9, GB>1K B0:>5 @0728B85 A>1KB89 8<5;> 1K :0:>9-;81> 7=0G8B5;L=K9 MDD5:B 4> B>3>, :0: 4@C385 ?@>F5AAK A45;0NB MBC ?@>1;5<C A?>@=>9 (Bostrom et al. 1999; Freitas 1999). 6.4. 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A;8 <K ?@8<5< MB>, B> B>340 ;N1>9 AF5=0@89, 2 :>B>@>< ?5@5E>4 : ?>ABG5;>25G5A:><C <8@C >B;>65= 4>AB0B>G=> =04>;3>, GB>1K ?>GB8 2A5 A>2@5<5==K5 ;N48 C<5@;8 4> MB>3> (?@54?>;030O, GB> >=8 =5 1K;8 CA?5H=> A>E@0=5=K ?>A@54AB2>< :@8>=8:8 (Merkle 1994; Ettinger 1964)) 1C45B !:@8?><.  A;CG05 ?@>20;0 ?>?KB>: ?@>4;5=8O 687=8 8;8 <0AA>2>3> @0A?@>AB@0=5=8O :@8>=8:8, 4065 3;04:89 ?5@5E>4 : ?>;=>ABLN @0728B><C ?>ABG5;>25G5AB2C G5@57 80 ;5B 1C45B A>AB02;OBL 7=0G8B5;L=K9 @8A: ACI5AB2>20=8N, 5A;8 <K >?@545;8< 65;0B5;L=>ABL :>=:@5B=> ?> >B=>H5=8N : ;N4O<, :>B>@K5 682K A59G0A. -B> ?@54?>;>65=85, >4=0:>, >BO3>I5=> 3;C1>:>9 ?@>1;5<>9 > ?@8@>45 F5==>AB59, :>B>@CN <K =5 1C45< ?KB0BLAO @5H8BL 745AL. 8. 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arrow, Tipler 1986; Carter 1983: 347 363; Carter 1989: 33 63; Hanson 1998). -B> <>65B @57:> 87<5=8BLAO, 5A;8 <K >B:@>5< A;54K =57028A8<> @07282H59AO 687=8 (=5206=>, 2K<5@H59, 8;8 =5B) =0 4@C38E ?;0=5B0E. 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AA;54>20=8O M2@8AB8:8 8 ?@54C15645=89 >B:@K;8 @57C;LB0BK, :>B>@K5 <>3CB =0?C30BL 8 ?@825AB8 2 C=K=85 =5?>43>B>2;5==>3> CG5=>3>. 5:>B>@K5 G8B0B5;8, 2?5@2K5 AB0;:820NI85AO A M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=K<8 @57C;LB0B0<8, F8B8@C5<K<8 745AL, <>3CB C4828BLAO 8 A?@>A8BL: -B> 459AB28B5;L=> M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=K5 @57C;LB0BK? 59AB28B5;L=> ;8 ;N48 B0: ?;>E> ?@54?>;030NB? >65B 1KBL, M:A?5@8<5=BK 1K;8 ?;>E> >@30=87>20=K, 8 @57C;LB0BK 87<5=OBAO, 5A;8 A>25@H8BL B0:85-B> 8 B0:85-B> <0=8?C;OF88? 5 8<5O 4>AB0B>G=> <5AB0 4;O >1JOA=5=89, O <>3C B>;L:> ?@8720BL G8B0B5;O ?@>:>=AC;LB8@>20BLAO A >A=>2>?>;030NI59 ;8B5@0BC@>9. G5284=K5 <0=8?C;OF88 C65 ?@8<5=O;8AL, 8 @57C;LB0BK >B MB>3> =5 AB0=>28;8AL 4@C38<8. 1. >ABC?=>ABL 8=D>@<0F88 @54?>;>68<, 2K 2>7L<5B5 A;CG09=>5 A;>2> 87 B@5E 8;8 1>;55 1C:2 87 0=3;89A:>3> B5:AB0. 'B> 1>;55 25@>OB=>: GB> A;>2> =0G8=05BAO A 1C:2K R ("rope"), 8;8 GB> 53> B@5BLO 1C:20 R ("park")? A=>2=0O 845O 8AA;54>20=89 <>45;59 @0AAC645=89 8 ?>3@5H=>AB59 A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> G5;>25G5A:85 ACI5AB20 8A?>;L7CNB <5B>4K <KH;5=8O, =07K205<K5 M2@8AB8:>9, :>B>@K5 40NB E>@>H85 A@54=85 >B25BK 2 1>;LH8=AB25 A;CG052, => :>B>@K5 B0:65 ?@82>4OB : C25;8G5=8N A8AB5<=KE >H81>:, =07K205<KE ?>3@5H=>ABO<8 (bias). @8<5@>< M2@8AB8:8 O2;O5BAO AC645=85 > G0AB>B5 8;8 25@>OB=>AB8 A>1KB8O ?> 53> 8=D>@<0F8>==>9 4>ABC?=>AB8 (availability), B> 5ABL ?> ;53:>AB8, A :>B>@>9 ?@8<5@K ?>4>1=>3> A>1KB8O ?@8E>4OB =0 C<. R ?>O2;O5BAO 2 :0G5AB25 B@5BL59 1C:2K 2 1>;LH5< G8A;5 0=3;89A:8E A;>2, G5< =0 ?5@2>< <5AB5, => 3>@074> ;53G5 2A?><=8BL A;>20, :>B>@K5 =0G8=0NBAO =0 MBC 1C:2C. "0:8< >1@07><, 1>;LH8=AB2> @5A?>=45=B>2 ?@54?>;030NB, GB> A;>20, =0G8=0NI85AO =0 1C:2C R, 2AB@5G0NBAO G0I5. [Tversky and Kahneman, 1973.] >3@5H=>AB8, >A=>20==K5 =0 M2@8AB8:5 4>ABC?=>AB8, 2;8ONB =0 >F5=:8 @8A:0. 8>=5@A:>5 8AA;54>20=85 8EB5=HB59=0 [Lichtenstein, 1978] >?8AK205B 01A>;NB=CN 8 >B=>A8B5;L=CN 4>AB>25@=>ABL AC645=89 > @8A:5. N48 2 >1I8E G5@B0E ?@54AB02;ONB, :0:85 @8A:8 ?@8G8=ONB 1>;LH55 G8A;> A<5@B59, 8 :0:85  <5=LH55. 4=0:>, :>340 8E ?@>AOB ?>AG8B0BL @8A:8 B>G=55, >=8 25AL<0 ?5@5>F5=820NB G0AB>BK @54:8E ?@8G8= A<5@B8, 8 A8;L=> =54>>F5=820NB G0AB>BK >1KG=KE. @C385 ?>2B>@ONI85AO >H81:8, 2KO2;5==K5 2 MB>< 8AA;54>20=88, B0:65 1K;8 >G5284=K<8: 020@88 AG8B0;8AL ?@8G8=0<8 B0:>3> 65 :>;8G5AB20 A<5@B59, GB> 8 1>;57=8 (=0 A0<>< 45;5 1>;57=8 2 16 @07 G0I5 AB0=>2OBAO ?@8G8=0<8 A<5@B59, G5< 020@88). #189AB2> =525@=> AG8B0;>AL 1>;55 G0AB>9 ?@8G8=>9 A<5@B8, G5< 48015B 8;8 @0: 65;C4:0.  8AA;54>20=88 ><1A0 8 !;>28F0 [Combs and Slovic, 1979] 1K; ?@>2545= ?>4AG5B A>>1I5=89 > A<5@B8 2 42CE 3075B0E, 2 @57C;LB0B5 1K;0 >1=0@C65=0 2KA>:0O :>@@5;OF8O <564C AC645=8O<8 > 4>AB>25@=>AB8 8 2K1>@>G=>ABLN @5?>@B0659 2 3075B0E (0,85 8 0,89). "0:65 ;N48 >B:07K20NBAO ?>:C?0BL AB@0E>2:C >B =02>4=5=89, 4065 5A;8 >=0 E>@>H> AC1A848@C5BAO 8 AB>8B 3>@074> =865 A?@0254;82>9 @K=>G=>9 F5=K. 0=@59A5@ [Kunreuther,1993] ?@54?>;0305B, GB> A;010O @50:F8O =0 C3@>7K =02>4=5=89 <>65B ?@>8AE>48BL 87 =5A?>A>1=>AB8 8=482840 ?@54AB028BL A515 =02>4=5=85, :>B>@>5 =0 8E 3;070E =8:>340 =5 A;CG0;>AL. 8B5;8 70B0?;8205<KE @02=8= >:07K20NBAO 2 ?;5=C A2>53> >?KB0. >-2848<><C, ;N48 =5 <>3CB 2A5@L57 15A?>:>8BLAO > 2>7<>6=>AB8 ?>B5@L 8 @07@CH5=89 1;LH8E, G5< ?5@568BK5 2> 2@5<O ?>A;54=8E =02>4=5=89. 5@B>= [Burton, 1978] A>>1I05B, GB> ?>A;5 AB@>8B5;LAB20 40<1 8 =0AK?59 =02>4=5=8O ?@>8AE>4OB @565, GB>, 2848<>, A>7405B D0;LH82>5 GC2AB2> 157>?0A=>AB8, 254CI55 : A=865=8N <5@ ?@54>AB>@>6=>AB8.  B> 2@5<O :0: AB@>8B5;LAB2> 40<1 C<5=LH05B G0AB>BC =02>4=5=89, CI5@1 >B :064>3> =02>4=5=8O 2A5-B0:8 ?@>8AE>4OI53> =0AB>;L:> 2>7@0AB05B, GB> A@54=53>4>2>9 CI5@1 C25;8G8205BAO. 065BAO, GB> ;N48 =5 M:AB@0?>;8@CNB >?KB ?5@568BKE <0;KE >?0A=>AB59 =0 2>7<>6=>AB8 1>;55 A5@L57=KE @8A:>2; =0>1>@>B, ?@>H;K9 >?KB <0;KE >?0A=>AB59 CAB0=02;8205B 25@E=NN 3@0=8FC >6840=89 <0:A8<0;L=> 2>7<>6=>3> @8A:0. 1I5AB2>, E>@>H> 70I8I5==>5 >B <0;KE >?0A=>AB59, =5 1C45B ?@54?@8=8<0BL =8:0:8E 459AB289 ?> >B=>H5=8N : 1>;LH8< @8A:0<. 0?@8<5@, G0AB> 2545BAO AB@>8B5;LAB2> =0 70B0?;8205<KE @02=8=0E ?>A;5 B>3>, :0: @53C;O@=K5 <0;K5 =02>4=5=8O CAB@0=5=K). 1I5AB2>, ?>425@65==>5 @53C;O@=K< <0;K< >?0A=>ABO<, 1C45B AG8B0BL MB8 <0;K5 >?0A=>AB8 2 :0G5AB25 25@E=59 3@0=8FK 2>7<>6=KE @8A:>2 (70I8I0OAL >B @53C;O@=KE <0;KE =02>4=5=89, => =5 >B =5>6840==KE 1>;LH8E). =0;>38G=>, @8A: G5;>25G5A:>3> 8AB@51;5=8O <>65B 1KBL =54>>F5=5=, ?>A:>;L:C, >G5284=>, G5;>25G5AB2> =8:>340 =5 AB0;:820;>AL A MB8< A>1KB85<. 2. =B5;;5:BC0;L=0O >H81:0, A2O70==0O A> 7=0=85< 704=8< G8A;><. (Hindsight bias) =B5;;5:BC0;L=0O >H81:0, A2O70==0O A> 7=0=85< 704=8< G8A;>< ?@>8AE>48B, :>340 AC1J5:B, C7=02 >:>=G0B5;L=K9 8B>3, 405B 3>@074> 1;LHCN >F5=:C ?@54A:07C5<>AB8 8<5==> MB>3> 8B>30, G5< AC1J5:BK, :>B>@K5 ?@54A:07K20NB 8B>3 157 7=0=8O @57C;LB0B0. -B0 >H81:0 8=>340 =07K205BAO O-2A5-MB>-2@5<O-GC2AB2>20;-GB>-B0:->=>-8-5ABL. $8AGE>DD 8 59A [Fischhoff 8 Beyth, 1975] ?@54AB028;8 ABC45=B0< 8AB>@8G5A:85 >BG5BK > <0;>8725AB=KE A>1KB8OE, B0:8E, :0: :>=D;8:B <564C 3C@:E0<8 8 0=3;8G0=0<8 2 1814 3>4C. OBL 3@C?? ABC45=B>2, ?>;CG82H8E MBC 8=D>@<0F8N, 1K;8 >?@>H5=K 2 >B=>H5=88 B>3>, :0: 1K >=8 >F5=8;8 AB5?5=L 25@>OB=>AB8 :064>3> 87 G5BK@5E 8AE>4>2: ?>1540 0=3;8G0=, ?>1540 3C@:E>2, ?0B>20O A8BC0F8O A <8@=K< A>3;0H5=85< 8;8 ?0B 157 A>3;0H5=8O. 064>5 87 MB8E A>1KB89 1K;> >?8A0=> :0: @50;L=K9 8B>3 A8BC0F88 >4=>9 87 G5BK@5E M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=KE 3@C??. OB>9, :>=B@>;L=>9 3@C??5 > @50;L=>< 8AE>45 =5 3>2>@8;8 =8G53>. 0640O M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=0O 3@C??0 ?@8?8A0;0 A>>1I5==><C 59 8B>3C 3>@074> 1;LHCN 25@>OB=>ABL, G5< ;N10O 4@C30O 8;8 :>=B@>;L=0O 3@C??0. -DD5:B 7=0=8O 704=8< G8A;>< 2065= 2 AC45, 345 AC4LO 8;8 ?@8AO6=K5 4>;6=K >?@545;8BL, 28=>25= ;8 >128=O5<K9 2 ?@5ABC?=>9 E0;0B=>AB8, =5 ?@5428452 >?0A=>ABL. ( [Sanchiro, 2003].  M:A?5@8<5=B5, >A=>20==>< =0 @50;L=>< 45;5, M<8= 8 0G;8=A:8 [Kamin and Rachlinski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debiasing manipulation) =5 @01>B0NB. 0AA<0B@820O 8AB>@8N A:2>7L ;8=7K =0H53> ?>A;54CNI53> 7=0=8O, <K A8;L=> =54>>F5=8205< 70B@0BK =0 ?@54>B2@0I5=8O :0B0AB@>DK. "0:, 2 1986 3>4C A?59A H0BB; '5;;5=465@ 27>@20;AO ?> ?@8G8=5 B>3>, GB> :>;LF52>9 C?;>B=8B5;L ?>B5@O; 381:>ABL ?@8 =87:>9 B5<?5@0BC@5 [Rogers, 1986]. K;8 ?@54C?@5640NI85 A83=0;K > ?@>1;5<0E, A2O70==KE A :>;LF52K< C?;>B=8B5;5<,. > ?@54>B2@0I5=85 :0B0AB@>DK '5;;5=465@0 4>;6=> 1K;> ?>B@51>20BL =5 B>;L:> 2=8<0=8O : ?@>1;5<0< A :>;LF52K< C?;>B=8B5;5<, => 8 >701>G5==>AB8 :064K< 0=0;>38G=K< ?@54C?@5640NI8< A83=0;><, :>B>@K9 1K :070;AO AB>;L 65 A5@L57=K<, :0: ?@>1;5<0 C?;>B=8B5;59, 157 ?@58<CI5AB20 ?>A;54CNI53> 7=0=8O. 3. '5@=K5 ;51548. (Black Swans) "M9;51 [Taleb, 2005] ?@54?>;>68;, GB> >H81:8 ?>A;54CNI53> 7=0=8O 8 4>ABC?=>AB8 =5ACB ?5@2>AB5?5==CN >B25BAB25==>ABL 70 =0HC =5A?>A>1=>ABL 70I8B8BLAO >B B>3>, GB> "M9;51 =0720; G5@=K<8 ;5154O<8. '5@=K5 ;51548 O2;ONBAO >A>15==> A5@L57=K< 0A?5:B>< ?@>1;5<K <>I=KE ?>A;54AB289: 8=>340 1;LH0O G0ABL 20@80B82=>AB8 ?@>F5AA0 ?@>8AE>48B 87 8A:;NG8B5;L=> @54:8E, => 8A:;NG8B5;L=> <0AHB01=KE A>1KB89. @54AB02LB5 A515 D8=0=A>2K9 8=AB@C<5=B, :>B>@K9 70@010BK205B $10 A 98% 25@>OB=>ABLN, => B5@O5B $1000 A 2% 25@>OB=>ABLN.  :>=5G=>< AG5B5, @0AE>4 ?5@525H8205B 4>E>4, => 8=AB@C<5=B 2K3;O48B :0: CAB>9G82> 2K83@KH=K9. "M9;51 (2001) ?@82>48B ?@8<5@ B@5945@0, GLO AB@0B538O @01>B0;0 6 ;5B 157 548=>3> C1KB>G=>3> :20@B0;0, ?@8=>AO >:>;> $80 <8;;8>=>2  8 70B5< >= ?>B5@O; $300 <8;;8>=>2 2 >4=>9 :0B0AB@>D5. @C38< ?@8<5@>< O2;O5BAO Long-Term Capital Management, 8=25AB8F8>==K9 D>=4, 2 A>AB02 >A=>20B5;59 :>B>@>3> 2E>48;8 420 >15;52A:8E ;0C@50B0 ?> M:>=><8:5.  B5G5=85 780BA:>3> :@878A0 8 @>AA89A:>3> 45D>;B0 1998 3>40 @K=:8 25;8 A51O A>25@H5==> 15A?@5F545=B=K< >1@07><, 8<52H8< ?@5=51@568<> <0;CN 25@>OB=>ABL ?> 8AB>@8G5A:>9 <>45;8, 8A?>;L7>20==>9 LTCM.  @57C;LB0B5 LTCM =0G0; B5@OBL ?> $100 <8;;8>=>2 2 45=L, 45=L 70 4=5<. 0 >48= 45=L 2 1998 3>4C >= ?>B5@O; 1>;55 $500 <8;;8>=>2 [Taleb, 2005] A=>20B5;8 LTCM ?>765 =0720;8 @K=>G=K5 CA;>28O 1998 3>40 >G5=L <0;>25@>OB=K< A>1KB85< A 25@>OB=K< >B:;>=5=85< 2 45AOBL A83<0. > >G5284=>, GB> MB> A>1KB85, @07 >=> A;CG8;>AL, =5 1K;> AB>;L =525@>OB=K<. H81>G=> 25@O, GB> ?@>H;>5 ?@54A:07C5<>, ;N48 ?@8H;8 : 2K2>4C, GB> 1C4CI55 B>65 ?@54A:07C5<>. 0: ?8H5B $8AGE>DD [Fischhoff, 1982]: >340 <K ?KB05<AO ?>=OBL A>1KB8O ?@>H;>3>, <K :>A25==K< >1@07>< ?@>25@O5< 38?>B57K 8 ?@028;0, ?@8<5=O5<K5 =0<8, GB>1K 8=B5@?@5B8@>20BL 8 2>A?@8=8<0BL <8@ 2>:@C3 =0A. 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N48 C482;ONBAO :0B0AB@>D0<, :>B>@KE >=8 =5 >6840;8, :>B>@K5 ;560B 70 ?@545;0<8 8725AB=KE 8< 8AB>@8G5A:8 25@>OB=KE @0A?@545;5=89. > ?>G5<C <K 1K205< B0: >H5;><;5=K, :>340 G5@=K5 ;51548 A;CG0NBAO? >G5<C LTCM 70=O;> $125 <8;;80@4>2 ?>4 $4.72 <8;;80@40 A>1AB25==>AB8, ?@0:B8G5A:8 30@0=B8@CO, GB> ;N10O :@C?=0O =5?@8OB=>ABL 8E >10=:@>B8B? > ?@8G8=5 >H81:8 87-70 ?>A;54CNI53> 7=0=8O, <K 2KCG8205< >G5=L A?5F8D8G5A:85 C@>:8. >A;5 11 A5=BO1@O 0<5@8:0=A:>5 C?@02;5=85 0280F88 70?@5B8;> 8A?>;L7>20=85 =>659 4;O @07@570=8O 1C<038 =0 A0<>;5B0E.  @5B@>A?5:B825 MB> A>1KB85 2K3;O48B A;8H:>< ?@54A:07C5<K<, ?>72>;OO @07JO@5==K< 65@B20< AG8B0BL A;CG82H55AO @57C;LB0B>< E0;0B=>AB8  B0:>9, :0: =5A?>A>1=>ABL @07254K20B5;L=KE 035=BAB2 @07;8G8BL ?@54C?@5645=8O >1 0:B82=>AB8 ;L-084K A@548 BKAOG 4@C38E ?@54C?@5645=89. K =0CG8;8AL =5 ?>72>;OBL 70E20G5==K< A0<>;5B0< ;5B0BL =04 =0H8<8 3>@>40<8. > <K =5 2KCG8;8 C@>:: G5@=K5 ;51548 A;CG0NBAO. 5;09, GB> <>65HL, GB>1K ?@83>B>28BLAO : =5>6840==><C. 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C18: 1C45B 1@>H5= 20 @07 8 ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 2K?045=8O 75;5=KE (G) 8 :@0A=KE (R) AB>@>= 1C45B 70?8A0=0. A?KBC5<K9 4>;65= 2K1@0BL >4=C ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 87 B@5E ?@54;>65==KE, 8 >= 2K83@05B $25, 5A;8 2K1@0==0O 8< ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 2K?045B 2 A5@88 1@>A:>2 :C18:0. >B MB8 B@8 ?>A;54>20B5;L=>AB8, =04> 2K1@0BL >4=C 87 =8E. 1. RGRRR 2. GRGRRR 3. GRRRRR 125 ABC45=B>2 2 !BM=D>@4A:>< C=825@A8B5B5 83@0;8 2 MBC 83@C A @50;L=K<8 AB02:0<8. 65% 87 =8E 2K1@0;8 ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 2. [Tversky 8 Kahneman, 1982]. ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 2 =081>;55 B8?8G=0 4;O 83@0;L=>9 :>AB8, ?>A:>;L:C :>ABL 1>;LH59 G0ABLN 75;5=0O 8 ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 2 A>45@68B =081>;LHCN ?@>?>@F8N 75;5=KE AB>@>=. 4=0:>, ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 1 ?@52>AE>48B ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 2, ?>A:>;L:C ?>;=>ABLN 2E>48B 2 =55. 'B>1K ?>;CG8;>AL 2, C 20A 4>;6=0 2K?0ABL ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 1 8 75;5=0O 3@0=L :>AB8 ?5@54 =59.  ?@82545==>9 2KH5 7040G5 ABC45=BK <>3;8 2KG8A;8BL B>G=K5 25@>OB=>AB8 :064>3> A>1KB8O. 4=0:> 2<5AB> B>3>, GB>1K B@0B8BL 2@5<O =0 0@8D<5B8G5A:85 2KG8A;5=8O, 65% ABC45=B>2, ?>-2848<><C, ?>;030;8AL =0 8=BC8F8N, 8AE>4O 87 B>3>, GB> :070;>AL 1>;55 B8?8G=K< 4;O 83@0;L=>9 :>AB8. >340 <K =07K205< MB> C<>70:;NG5=85< ?> B8?8G=>AB8, <K =5 =0AB08205< =0 B><, GB> ABC45=BK A?5F80;L=> @5H8;8, GB> >=8 1C4CB >F5=820BL 25@>OB=>ABL, 8AE>4O 87 B8?8G=>AB8. !:>@55, C<>70:;NG5=85 ?> B8?8G=>AB8 O2;O5BAO :0: @07 B5<, GB> A>7405B 8=BC8B82=>5 GC2AB2>, 1C4B> ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 2 1>;55 25@>OB=0, G5< ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL 1. @C38<8 A;>20<8, C<>70:;NG5=85 ?> B8?8G=>AB8 O2;O5BAO 2AB@>5==>9 E0@0:B5@8AB8:>9 <>730, ?@54=07=0G5==>9, GB>1K 4020BL 1KAB@K5 4>AB>25@=K5 AC645=8O, 0 =5 A>7=0B5;L=> 2K1@0==>9 ?@>F54C@>9. K =5 >A>7=05< ?>4<5=K AC645=85< > B8?8G=>AB8 AC645=8O > 4>AB>25@=>AB8. H81:8 2 A8BC0F8OE A ;>38G5A:8<  ?>4>1=K< 65 >1@07>< ?@>8AE>4OB 2 DCBC@>;>38G5A:8E ?@>3=>70E. 25 =57028A8<KE 3@C??K ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=KE 0=0;8B8:>2 =0 2B>@>< 564C=0@>4=>< :>=3@5AA5 ?> @542845=8N C4CI53> 1K;8 >?@>H5=K, A>>B25BAB25==>, > 25@>OB=>AB8 ?>;=>3> @07@K20 48?;><0B8G5A:8E >B=>H5=89 <564C !!!  8 !( 2 1983 3>4C 8 @CAA:>3> 2B>@65=8O 2 >;LHC, 8 ?>A;54CNI53> ?>;=>3> @07@K20 48?;><0B8G5A:8E >B=>H5=89 <564C !!!  8 !( 2 1983 3>4C. B>@0O 3@C??0 0=0;8B8:>2 A>>1I8;0 > 7=0G8B5;L=> 1>;55 2KA>:>9 25@>OB=>AB8. [Tversky 8 Kahneman, 1982].  8AA;54>20=88 6>=A>=0 [Johnson, 1993], 3@C??0 ABC45=B>2 MBA 87 #>@B>=0 4>;6=0 1K;0 >B?@028BLAO 2 0=3:>: 2 :0G5AB25 G0AB8 A2>59 >1@07>20B5;L=>9 ?@>3@0<<K. 5A:>;L:> ?>43@C?? ABC45=B>2 1K;> >?@>H5=> =0 B5<C, :0: <=>3> >=8 3>B>2K 70?;0B8BL 70 0=B8B5@@>@8AB8G5A:CN AB@0E>2:C. 5@2>9 3@C??5 1K; 7040= 2>?@>A, A:>;L:> >=0 3>B>20 70?;0B8BL 70 0=B8B5@@>@8AB8G5A:CN AB@0E>2:C, ?>:@K20NICN ?5@5;5B 87 "08;0=40 2 !(. 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chneier, 2005]. !25@E45B0;L=K5 7025@5=8O B0:65 <>3CB A>740BL ;>6=>5 >ICI5=85 157>?0A=>AB8: % =5 O2;O5BAO @8A:>< ACI5AB2>20=8N, 8 2K =5 4>;6=K 701>B8BLAO > =5<, ?>B><C GB> 25@=K CB25@645=8O A, B, C, D, 8 E.  B> 2@5<O :0: >H81:0 2 ;N1>< 87 ?@54?>;>65=89 O2;O5BAO ?>B5=F80;L=> 3815;L=>9 4;O G5;>25G5A:>3> @>40. K =5 4>;6=K 15A?>:>8BLAO > =0=>B5E=>;>38G5A:>9 2>9=5, ?>B><C GB> :><8AA8O  2 =0G0;5 @07>2L5B MBC B5E=>;>38N 8 ?@54>B2@0B8B 55 @0A?@>AB@0=5=85 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 =5 1C45B @07@01>B0=0 0:B82=0O 70I8B0, A?>A>1=0O 70I8B8BL >B 2A5E A;CG09=KE 8;8 7;>=0<5@5==KE ?@>O2;5=89, :>B>@K5 A>2@5<5==0O =0=>B5E=>;>38O A?>A>1=0 ?>@>48BL, 8 MB> CA;>285 1C45B 2K?>;=OBLAO 2A5340. /@:85, G5B:> >?@545;5==K5 AF5=0@88 <>3CB C25;8G8BL =0HC 25@>OB=>AB=CN >F5=:C 157>?0A=>AB8, @02=> :0: 8 =5?@028;L=> =0?@028BL 8=25AB8F88 2 157>?0A=>ABL A CG5B>< 87;8H=5 AC65==KE 8;8 =525@>OB=> 45B0;87>20==KE AF5=0@852 @8A:>2.  F5;><, ;N4O< A2>9AB25==> ?5@5>F5=820BL 25@>OB=>ABL A>2?045=89 2A5E A>1KB89 2 A5@88 8 =54>>F5=820BL 25@>OB=>ABL E>BO 1K >4=>3> A>1KB8O 87 A5@88. [Tversky 8 Kahneman, 1982]. "> 5ABL, ;N4O< A2>9AB25==> ?5@5>F5=820BL 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB>, =0?@8<5@, A5<L A>1KB89, A 25@>OB=>ABLN 90 % :064>5 2A5 2<5AB5 A>2?04CB. 0>1>@>B, ;N4O< A2>9AB25==> =54>>F5=820BL 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> E>BO 1K >4=> A>1KB85 87 A5<8, 8<5NI8E :064>5 25@>OB=>ABL 10%, 2A5-B0:8 A;CG8BAO. 5:B>, >F5=820NI89, AB>8B ;8, =0?@8<5@, >B:@KBL =>2CN :><?0=8N, 4>;65= 2KG8A;8BL 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> <=>65AB2> >B45;L=KE A>1KB89 ?@>87>945B >4=>2@5<5==> =C6=K< >1@07>< (GB> 1C45B 4>AB0B>G=>5 D8=0=A8@>20=85, :><?5B5=B=K5 @01>G85, ?>:C?0B5;8 1C4CB E>B5BL B>20@), CG8BK20O B0:65 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB>, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, >4=0 :@8B8G5A:0O =5?@8OB=>ABL A;CG8BAO (10=: >B:065BAO 40BL AAC4C, 3;02=K9 ?@>5:B 70:>=G8BAO =5C40G59, 254CI89 CG5=K9 C<@5B). -B> <>65B >1JOA=8BL, ?>G5<C B>;L:> 44% ?@54?@8OB89 2K6820NB 2 B5G5=85 ?5@2KE G5BK@5E ;5B. [Knaup, 2005.] 42>:0BK 2 A2>8E @5G0E ?@54?>G8B0NB 871530BL 2K2>4>2, >A=>20==KE =0 8AB8==>AB8, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, >4=>9 87 =5A:>;L:8E ?>AK;>: (;81> >4=>, ;81> 4@C3>5, ;81> B@5BL5 4>;6=> 1K;> A;CG8BAO 8 :064K9 87 MB8E 20@80=B>2 ?@82>48B : >4=><C 8 B><C 65 2K2>4C), 2 ?>;L7C 2K2>4>2, >A=>20==KE =0 A>2?045=88 A@07C =5A:>;L:8E ?>AK;>:. ! @0F8>=0;L=>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O ?5@2K5 A;CG08 3>@074> 1>;55 25@>OB=K, G5< 2B>@K5. AB@51;5=85 G5;>25G5AB20 2 A;54CNI5< AB>;5B88 <>65B ?@>87>9B8 2 @57C;LB0B5 E>BO 1K >4=>9 87 <=>38E ?@8G8=. => <>65B A;CG8BLAO ?> ?@8G8=5 ;N1>3> @8A:0 2K6820=8N, >1AC645==>3> 2 MB>9 :=835 [ 8A:8 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>DK, :AD>@4, 2007], 8;8 ?> :0:>9-=81C4L 4@C3>9 ?@8G8=5, :>B>@CN =8:B> 87 =0A =5 ?@542845;. 065 4;O DCBC@>;>3>2 >?8A0=8O 2 4CE5 8;8 B>, 8;8 4@C3>5, 8;8 B@5BL5 =5C4>1=K, 8 ?@>@>G5AB20, A ?><>ILN =8E AD>@<C;8@>20==K5, 72CG0B =5?>MB8G=>. 5. H81>G=>ABL @0AAC645=89, 2K720==0O MDD5:B>< ?>4B25@645=8O (Confirmation bias)  1960 3>4C 8B5@ #>A>= (Peter Wason) ?@>25; =K=5 :;0AA8G5A:89 M:A?5@8<5=B, 8725AB=K9 :0: 7040G0 '2-4-6' [Wason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motivated cognition) (>1KG=> 8725AB=K< :0: @0F8>=0;870F8O). 0: >B<5G05B @5==5@ [Brenner, 2002] 2 0<5B:0E : B5>@88 >4>1@5=8O: G5284=>, GB> 2> <=>38E >1AB>OB5;LAB20E 65;0=85 C25@5==>AB8 2 38?>B575 <>65B 70<5B=> ?>2;8OBL =0 2>A?@8=8<05<CN AB5?5=L 55 ?>4B25@645=8O... 0=40 [Kunda, 1990] >1AC6405B, :0: ;N48, =0F5;5==K5 =0 B>, GB>1K 4>AB8GL >?@545;5==KE 2K2>4>2, ?KB0NBAO A:>=AB@C8@>20BL (2 >H81>G=>9 <0=5@5) C1548B5;L=K9 A;CG09 4;O A2>59 ;N18<>9 38?>B57K, :>B>@K9 <>3 1K C1548BL 15A?@8AB@0AB=CN 0C48B>@8N. 68;>28G [Gilovich, 2000] ?@54?>;0305B, GB> 2K2>4K, 2 :>B>@K5 G5;>25: =5 E>G5B 25@8BL, @0AA<0B@820NBAO 3>@074> B@51>20B5;L=55, G5< B5, 2 :>B>@K5 >= E>G5B 25@8BL.  ?5@2>< A;CG05 G5;>25: B@51C5B, GB>1K A2845B5;LAB2> A =5>1E>48<>ABLN 25;> : 40==><C 2K2>4C, 0 2> 2B>@><  A?@0H8205B, ?>72>;O5B ;8 =5:>B>@>5 A2845B5;LAB2> ?@84B8 : 40==><C 2K2>4C. >340 ;N48 ?>425@30NB B5 A2845B5;LAB20, :>B>@K5 ?@>B82>@5G0B 8E B>G:5 7@5=8O, 1>;55 ?@8AB@0AB=><C 0=0;87C, G5< B5, :>B>@K5 55 ?>4B25@640NB, MB> =07K205BAO <>B828@>20==K9 A:5?B8F87< 8;8 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=0O >H81:0 =5A>3;0A8O (disconfirmation bias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aber and Lodge, 2000] 8AA;54>20;8 87=0G0;L=>5 >B=>H5=85 8 87<5=5=85 >B=>H5=8O C ABC45=B>2, ?>4 2>7459AB285< ?@>GB5=8O ?>;8B8G5A:>9 ;8B5@0BC@K 70 8 ?@>B82 :>=B@>;O 8 2K40G8 @07@5H5=89 =0 >@C685. -B> 8AA;54>20=85 ?@>25@8;> H5ABL A;54CNI8E 38?>B57 2 42CE M:A?5@8<5=B0E: -DD5:B ?@54H5AB2CNI53> >B=>H5=8O. (Prior attitude effect.) A?KBC5<K5, 8<52H85 87=0G0;L=CN B>G:C 7@5=8O =0 ?@>1;5<C  4065 :>340 8E ?>>I@O;8 2 B><, GB>1K >=8 1K;8 >1J5:B82=K<8  =0E>48;8 ?>445@6820NI85 0@3C<5=BK 1>;55 >E>B=>, G5< >?@>25@30NI85. !8AB5<0B8G5A:0O >H81:0 >?@>25@65=8O. A?KBC5<K5 B@0B8;8 1>;LH5 2@5<5=8 8 C<AB25==KE CA8;89, AB0@0OAL >B:;>=8BL >?@>25@30NI85 0@3C<5=BK, G5< ?>445@6820NI85 0@3C<5=BK. !8AB5<0B8G5A:0O >H81:0 ?>4B25@645=8O. A?KBC5<K5, A2>1>4=K5 2K18@0BL 8AB>G=8:8 8=D>@<0F88, A:>@55 8A:0;8 ?>4B25@640NI85, G5< >?@>25@30NI85 8AB>G=8:8. >;O@870F8O >B=>H5=8O. @54JO2;5=85 AC1J5:B0< >G5284=> C@02=>25H5==>3> =01>@0 0@3C<5=B>2 70 8 ?@>B82 ?@82>48;> : C25;8G5=8N 87=0G0;L=>9 ?>;O@870F88 8E <=5=89. -DD5:B A8;K <=5=8O (Attitude strength effect). A?KBC5<K5, 8<5NI85 1>;55 O@:> 2K@065==>5 <=5=85, 1K;8 1>;55 ?>425@65=K 2KH5=0720==K< A:;>==>ABO< : >H81:5. -DD5:B CA;>6=5=8O. (Sophistication effect) >;55 8A:CH5==K5 2 ?>;8B8:5 8A?KBC5<K5, ?> ?@8G8=5 >1;040=8O 1>;55 BO65;K< 2>>@C65=85< 4;O >?@>25@65=8O ?@>B82=KE D0:B>2 8 4>2>4>2, 1K;8 1>;55 ?>425@65=K 2KH5?@82545==K< A8AB5<0B8G5A:8< >H81:0<. 0102=>, GB> M:A?5@8<5=BK "M915@0 8 >460 (Taber and Lodge) ?>4B25@48;8 2A5 H5ABL 87=0G0;L=KE 38?>B57 02B>@>2. K <>65B5 A:070BL: 5@>OB=>, MB8 M:A?5@8<5=BK B>;L:> >B@060NB 25@>20=8O, =0 :>B>@K5 >?8@0;8AL 8E 02B>@K, 8 MB> :0: @07 ?@8<5@ A8AB5<0B8G5A:>9 >H81:8 ?>4B25@645=8O. 5A;8 B0:, B>, A45;02 20A 1>;55 >?KB=K< A?>@I8:><, 0 8<5==>, =0CG82 20A 5I5 >4=>9 A8AB5<0B8G5A:>9 >H81:5, 2 :>B>@>9 <>6=> >128=8BL ;N459, O, 2 459AB28B5;L=>AB8, =02@548; 20<: O >A;018; 20HC @50:F8N =0 =>2CN 8=D>@<0F8N. / 40; 20< 5I5 >48= H0=A 2AO:89 @07 B5@?5BL =5C40GC, :>340 2K AB0;:8205B5AL A 2>7<>6=>ABLN 87<5=8BL A2>9 AB8;L <KH;5=8O. >45;8 @0AAC645=8O 8 A8AB5<0B8G5A:85 >H81:8 H8@>:> @0A?@>AB@0=5=K 2 G5;>25G5A:8E @07<KH;5=8OE. E 7=0=85 ?>72>;O5B =0< 70<5G0BL 1>;LH>5 @07=>>1@0785 ;>38G5A:8E >H81>:, :>B>@K5, 2 ?@>B82=>< A;CG05, 1K;8 1K =54>ABC?=K 4;O =0H53> =01;N45=8O. >, :0: 8 ;N10O A?>A>1=>ABL >1=0@C6820BL >H81:8 2 @0AAC645=8OE, MB> 7=0=85 4>;6=> ?@8<5=OBLAO >1>N4>AB>@>==5: :0: : =0H8< A>1AB25==K< 845O<, B0: 8 : 845O< 4@C38E; : 845O<, :>B>@K5 =0< =@02OBAO, 8 :>B>@K5 =0< =5 =@02OBAO. =0=85 G5;>25G5A:>9 A:;>==>AB8 >H810BLAO  MB> >?0A=>5 7=0=85, 5A;8 2K =0?><8=05B5 A515 >1 >H81>G=>AB8 B5E, :B> =5 A>3;0A5= A 20<8. A;8 O 8718@0B5;5= 2 >B=>H5=88 B5E 0@3C<5=B>2, :>B>@K5 O 8AA;54CN =0 ?@54<5B >H81>:, 8;8 4065 B>3>, =0A:>;L:> 3;C1>:> O 8AA;54CN MB8 >H81:8, B>340 :064K9 =>2K9 70:>= ;>38:8, :0640O =>20O ;>38G5A:0O =5A>>1@07=>ABL, :>B>@CN O =0CG0NAL >1=0@C6820BL, 45;05B <5=O 3;C?55. #<, GB>1K 1KBL ?>;57=K<, 4>;65= 1KBL 8A?>;L7>20= =5 4;O B>3>, GB>1K 4C@0G8BL A0<>3> A51O. 5;L7O @0F8>=0;878@>20BL B>, GB> =5 @0F8>=0;L=> A A0<>3> =0G0;0  :0: 5A;8 ;>6L =0720BL ?@024870F859. 5;L7O A45;0BL CB25@645=85 1>;55 8AB8==K< ?>A@54AB2>< 27OB>G=8G5AB20, ;5AB8 8;8 4065 AB@0AB=>9 0@3C<5=B0F88  <>6=> 70AB028BL 1>;LH5 ;N459 25@8BL 2 CB25@645=85, => =5;L7O A45;0BL 53> 25@=55. ;O B>3>, GB>1K A45;0BL =0H8 25@>20=8O 1>;55 8AB8==K<8, <K 4>;6=K 87<5=8BL A0<8 MB8 25@>20=8O. 5 :064>5 87<5=5=85  MB> C;CGH5=85, => :064>5 C;CGH5=85  MB> 87<5=5=85 ?> >?@545;5=8N. 0H8 25@>20=8O 3>@074> 1>;55 ?>4286=K, G5< <K ?@82K:;8 4C<0BL. @8DD8= 8 "25@A:89 [Griffin and Tversky, 1992] >AB>@>6=> >?@>A8;8 24-E A2>8E :>;;53 =0 B5<C 2K1>@0 <564C 42C<O ?@54;>65=8O<8 ?> @01>B5 8 ?>?@>A8;8 8E >F5=8BL 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> >=8 53> 2K15@CB, 4;O :064>3> 87 ?@54;>65=89. !@54=OO 25@>OB=>ABL 2K1>@0, 2KA:070==0O 2 >B=>H5=88 1>;55 ?@82;5:0B5;L=>3> ?@54;>65=8O, A>AB028;0 C<5@5==K5 66%. > B>;L:> >48= 87 24 >?@>H5==KE 2K1@0; 2 :>=5G=>< AG5Bt 20@80=B, :>B>@><C >= ?@8?8A0; 2 =0G0;5 1>;55 =87:CN 25@>OB=>ABL, C25;8G82 >1ICN B>G=>ABL ?@54A:070=8O 4> 96 ?@>F5=B>2. (-B>  >48= 87 =5<=>38E 8725AB=KE ?@8<5@>2, :>340 8<55B <5AB> =5 A25@E-C25@5==>ABL, 0 =54>-C25@5==>ABL.) >@0;L 2 B><, GB> :0: B>;L:> 2K =0G8=05B5 4>304K20BLAO, :0:>2 1C45B 20H >B25B, :0: B>;L:> 2K ?@8?8AK205B5 1>;LHCN 25@>OB=>ABL B><C, GB> 2K >B25B8B5 B0:, 0 =5 8=0G5, 2K, =0 A0<>< 45;5, C65 @5H8;8.  5A;8 2K 1C45B5 G5AB=K A A0<8< A>1>9, 2K 4>;6=K ?@87=0BL, GB> >1KG=> 2K 4>304K205B5AL >1 >:>=G0B5;L=>< >B25B5 G5@57 A5:C=4K ?>A;5 B>3>, :0: CA;KH8B5 2>?@>A. K <5=O5< =0H8 <=5=8O 3>@074> @565, G5< <K 4C<05<. 0A:>;L:> A:>@>B5G5= MB>B :>@>B:89 =570<5B=K9 <><5=B, :>340 <K 4065 =5 <>65< 4>3040BLAO, :0:>2 1C45B =0H >B25B, <0;NA5=L:>5 E@C?:>5 <3=>25=85, :>B>@>5 =0< >B2545=>, GB>1K =0 A0<>< 45;5 ?>4C<0BL  :0: 2 2>?@>A0E 2K1>@0, B0: 8 2 2>?@>A0E CAB0=>2;5=8O D0:B>2. (5=:5;L (Shenkel) 3>2>@8;: 5B =5>1E>48<>AB8 2 25@5, ?>:0 A8BC0F8O <>65B 1KBL ;53:> @0AA<>B@5=0 B5< 8;8 4@C38< >1@07><. >@<0= 095@ (Norman R. F. Maier): 5 ?@54;0309B5 @5H5=8O, 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 ?@>1;5<0 =5 1C45B 8AA;54>20=0 B0: BI0B5;L=>, :0: MB> B>;L:> 2>7<>6=>. >18= >C7 (Robyn Dawes), :><<5=B8@CO 095@0, ?8A0;: / G0AB> ?@54;030; MB> ?@028;> 3@C??0<, :>B>@K5 O 25;, 2 G0AB=>AB8, :>340 >=8 AB0;:820;8AL A >A>15==> B@C4=>9 ?@>1;5<>9. -B> - B8?8G=0O A8BC0F8O, :>340 G;5=K 3@C??K >A>15==> A:;>==K ?@54;030BL <3=>25==K5 @5H5=8O.  :><?LNB5@=>9 157>?0A=>AB8 A8AB5<0, :>B>@>9 4>25@ONB (trusted system)  MB> B0, :>B>@>9 2K =0 A0<>< 45;5 4>25@O5B5, 0 =5 B0, :>B>@0O 4>AB>9=0 4>25@8O. !8AB5<0, :>B>@>9 4>25@ONB  MB> A8AB5<0, :>B>@0O, 1C4CG8 A:><?@><5B8@>20==>9, A?>A>1=0 2K720BL >H81:C. >340 2K G8B05B5 AB0BLN, CB25@640NICN, GB> 3;>10;L=0O :0B0AB@>D0 =52>7<>6=0, 8;8 8<55B >?@545;5==CN 3>4>2CN 25@>OB=>ABL, 8;8 <>65B 1KBL ?@5>4>;5=0 A 8A?>;L7>20=85< >?@545;5==>9 AB@0B5388  2K 4>25@O5B5 @0F8>=0;L=>AB8 02B>@>2. K 4>25@O5B5 A?>A>1=>AB8 02B>@>2 ?5@5E>48BL >B C4>1=KE 2K2>4>2 : =5C4>1=K<, 4065 2 A;CG05 >BACBAB28O A=>3AH810B5;L=KE M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=KE A2845B5;LAB2, >?@>25@30NI8E ;N18<CN 38?>B57C. K 4>25@O5B5 02B>@0< 2 B><, GB> >=8 =5 8A:0;8 =5<=>3> 1>;55 8=B5=A82=> >H81:8 2 B5E C@02=5=8OE, :>B>@K5 C:07K20;8 =0 =525@=K9, A 8E B>G:8 7@5=8O, ?CBL, 4> B>3>, :0: : 20< ?>?0; >:>=G0B5;L=K9 20@80=B AB0BL8.  5A;8 2;0AB8 22>4OB 70:>=, ?> :>B>@><C 4065 <5;LG09H89 @8A: ACI5AB2>20=8N G5;>25G5AB20 4>AB0B>G5= 4;O B>3>, GB>1K 70:@KBL ?@>5:B; 8;8 5A;8 AB0=>28BAO =>@<>9 ?>;8B8:8 45-D0:B>, GB> =8 >4=> 2>7<>6=>5 2KG8A;5=85 =5 <>65B ?5@525A8BL 3@C7 >4=064K 2KA:070==>3> ?@54?>;>65=8O, B> B>340 =8 >48= CG5=K9 =5 @8A:=5B 1>;LH5 2KA:07K20BL ?@54?>;>65=8O. / =5 7=0N, :0: @5H8BL MBC ?@>1;5<C. > O 4C<0N, GB> B5<, :B> >F5=8205B 3;>10;L=K5 @8A:8, A;54C5B 8<5BL >1I85 ?@54AB02;5=8O > G5;>25G5A:8E <>45;OE @0AAC645=89 8 A8AB5<0B8G5A:8E >H81:0E ?@8 @0AAC645=8OE, 8 >1 >H81:5 =5?>4B25@645=8O 2 G0AB=>AB8. 6. /:>@5=85, =0AB@>9:0 8 =0;>65=85 (Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination). -:A?5@8<5=B0B>@ :@CB8B C 20A =0 3;070E @C;5B:C, 8 >=0 C:07K205B =0, 2 ?5@2>< A;CG05, 65, 0 2> 2B>@><  =0 15. -:A?5@8<5=B0B>@ 70B5< A?@0H8205B 20A, 1>;LH5 8;8 <5=LH5 ?@>F5=B 0D@8:0=A:8E AB@0= 2  MB>3> G8A;0. 0B5< M:A?5@8<5=B0B>@ A?@0H8205B 20A > 20H59 >F5=:5 ?@>F5=B0 0D@8:0=A:8E AB@0= 2 . "25@A:89 8 0=5<0= [Tversky 8 Kahneman, 1974] ?@>45<>=AB@8@>20;8, GB> 8A?KBC5<K5, :>B>@KE 2=0G0;5 ?>?@>A8;8 >F5=8BL, =0E>48BAO ;8 8A:><>5 G8A;> 2KH5 8;8 =865 15, 70B5< 4020;8 7=0G8B5;L=> 1>;55 =87:85 >F5=:8 ?@>F5=B0 0D@8:0=A:8E AB@0= 2 , G5< B5 8A?KBC5<K5, :>B>@KE 2 =0G0;5 ?@>A8;8 >F5=8BL, 2KH5 8;8 =865 MB>B ?@>F5=B 65. !@54=OO >F5=:0 ?> 3@C??5 1K;0 2 ?5@2>< A;CG05 25, 2> 2B>@><  45 ?@>F5=B>2. -B> ?@>8AE>48;>, =5A<>B@O =0 B>, GB> 8A?KBC5<K5 2845;8, GB> =><5@0 35=5@8@CNBAO >G5284=> A;CG09=K< >1@07><, @C;5B:>9, 8 ?>B><C <>3;8 1KBL C25@5=K, GB> MB8 =><5@0 =5 8<5NB =8:0:>3> >B=>H5=8O : @50;L=><C ?@>F5=BC 0D@8:0=A:8E AB@0= 2 . 5=56=K5 2K?;0BK 70 B>G=>ABL =5 87<5=8;8 8=B5=A82=>ABL MB>3> MDD5:B0. "25@A:89 8 0=5<0= ?@54?>;>68;8, GB> MB>B MDD5:B 2K720= O:>@5=85< 8 =0AB@>9:>9; 8A?KBC5<K5 ?@8=8<0;8 87=0G0;L=>5 =58=D>@<0B82=>5 G8A;> 70 B>G:C >BAG5B0, 8;8 O:>@L, 8 70B5< C25;8G820;8 8;8 C<5=LH0;8 MB> G8A;>, 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 =5 4>AB830;8 @57C;LB0B0, :>B>@K9 2K3;O45; C1548B5;L=> 4;O =8E; B>340 >=8 ?@5:@0I0;8 ?>4AB@>9:C. -B>B @57C;LB0B 1K; =54>>F5=:>9, A2O70==>9 A 40==K< O:>@5<.  ?@8<5@5 2 =0G0;5 AB0BL8 <K 2=0G0;5 ?>?@>A8;8 M:A?5@B0 ?> 25I5AB2C P ?@54?>;>68BL B>G=>5 7=0G5=85 A8;K @048>A83=0;0, :>B>@K9 ?@82545B : 27@K2C P, 8 B>;L:> 70B5< ?>?@>A8;8 >F5=8BL 25@E=85 8 =86=85 3@0=8FK 4;O MB>3> ?0@0<5B@0. -B>B <5B>4 >?@>A0 70AB02;O5B ;N459 ?>4AB@0820BL A2>9 >B25B > 25@E=59 8 =86=59 3@0=8F5 : 87=0G0;L=>9 >F5=:5, 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 >=8 =5 4>AB830NB 7=0G5=89, :>B>@K5 72CG0B =525@>OB=> 8 ?@5:@0I0NB ?>4AB@>9:C. -B> ?@82>48B : =54>>F5=:5 8 A;8H:>< C7:8< 3@0=8F0< 8=B5@20;0 C25@5==>AB8. >A;5 AB0BL8 "25@A:>3> 8 0=5<0=0 1974 3>40 AB0;> =0:0?;820BLAO 2A5 1>;LH5 A2845B5;LAB2 H8@>:>3> :@C30 MDD5:B>2 O:>@5=8O 8 ?A524>-O:>@5=8O. /:>@5=85 ?@>8AE>48;>, 4065 :>340 O:>@L 4020; 01A>;NB=> =525@>OB=K9 >B25B =0 2>?@>A, =0?@8<5@, ?@8 >?@>A5 ABC45=B>2 >B=>A8B5;L=> 3>40 ?5@2>3> 2878B0 -9=HB59=0 2 !(, ?>A;5 @0AA<>B@5=8O O:>@59 1215 8;8 1992. -B8 =54>AB>25@=K5 O:>@O A>74020;8 MDD5:B O:>@5=8O B0:>9 65 A8;K, :0: 8 1>;55 4>AB>25@=K5 O:>@O, B0:85 :0: 1905 8 1939 [Strack and Mussweiler, 1997]. >?CAB8<, 2K 845B5 ?> AC?5@<0@:5BC 8 2848B5 AB>9:C A 10=:0<8 :>=A5@28@>20==>9 B><0B=>9 ?0ABK A =04?8ALN: ">;L:> 12 HBC: 2 @C:8. 0AB02;O5B ;8 MB> ;N459 =0 A0<>< 45;5 ?>:C?0BL 1>;LH5 B><0B=>9 ?0ABK? !>3;0A=> M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=K< 40==K<, 70AB02;O5B [Wansink et. al., 1998]. >;55 >1I0O D>@<0 MB>3> D5=><5=0 AB0;0 8725AB=0 :0: MDD5:B =0;>65=8O (contamination effect), ?>A:>;L:C >:070;>AL, GB> ?>GB8 ;N10O 8=D>@<0F8O <>65B ?>2;8OBL =0 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>5 AC645=85 [Chapman and Johnson, 2002]. @54?@8=8<0;8AL ?>?KB:8 >A;018BL MDD5:B =0;>65=8O ?CB5< 2K?;0BK 8A?KBC5<K< 2>7=03@0645=8O 70 ?@028;L=K5 >B25BK. "25@A:89 8 0=5<0= [Tversky 8 Kahneman, 1974] 8=AB@C:B8@>20=8O 8A?KBC5<KE > =5>1E>48<>AB8 871560BL O:>@5=8O 87=0G0;L=K< ?>:070B5;5< [Quattrone et. al., 1981] 8;8 65 >1@0I5=8O 8A?KBC5<KE : ?@>1;5<0< @50;L=>3> <8@0 [Wansink et. al., 1998]. -B8 459AB28O =5 C<5=LH8;8 8;8 C<5=LH8;8 B>;L:> 2 =57=0G8B5;L=>9 AB5?5=8 8=B5=A82=>ABL MDD5:B>2 O:>@5=8O 8 =0;>65=8O. >;55 B>3>, AC1J5:BK, A?@>H5==K5 > B><, 1K;8 ;8 >=8 ?>425@3=CBK 459AB28N MDD5:B0 =0;>65=8O, >1KG=> =5 25@8;8, GB> >= =0 =8E ?>2;8O;, E>BO M:A?5@8<5=BK ?>:07K20;8 >1@0B=>5. [Wilson et. al., 1996]. 59AB28O, ACI5AB25==> C25;8G820NI85 MDD5:B =0;>65=8O MB> 459AB28O, ?><5I0NI85 AC1J5:B>2 2 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=> B@C4=K5 CA;>28O, B0:85, :0: =5?@5@K2=>5 ?@>A;CH820=85 ?>A;54>20B5;L=>AB8 A;>2 2 ?@>F5AA5 @01>BK [Gilbert et. al., 1988] 8;8 B@51>20=85 >B AC1J5:B>2 1KAB@KE >B25B>2 [Gilbert and Osborne, 1989]. 8;15@B [Gilbert et. al., 1988] A2O7K205B MB> A B5<, GB> 4>?>;=8B5;L=0O 7040G0 2;8O5B =0 A?>A>1=>ABL >BAB@>8BLAO (adjust away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ostrom, 2001]. %C4>65AB25==K5 A2845B5;LAB20 G0AB> A>AB>OB 87 E>@>H8E 8AB>@89 2 1>AB@><A:>< A<KA;5. B<5BLB5, GB> =5 2A5 2>7<>6=K5 E>@>H85 8AB>@88 C65 ?@54AB02;5=K 2 ;8B5@0BC@5. 0AA:07G8:8 8AB>@89 A>1;N40NB AB@>385 ?@028;0 ?>25AB2>20B5;L=>AB8, =5 8<5NI85 >B=>H5=8O : @50;L=>AB8. @0<0B8G5A:0O ;>38:0  MB> =5 ;>38:0. 4>E=>2;5==K5 ?8A0B5;8 7=0NB, GB> >4=>9 ?@024K <0;>: =5;L7O 70AB028BL ?>25@8BL 2 =525@>OB=>5 A>1KB85 87 20H53> ?@>872545=8O ?CB5< F8B8@>20=8O ?@8<5@>2 87 @50;L=>9 687=8. %>@>H0O 8AB>@8O @0A:@0H5=0 O@:8<8 45B0;O<8, @0AF25G5=0 F25BCI8<8 <5B0D>@0<8; @0AA:07G8: 8AB>@89 4>;65= 1KBL :>=:@5B=K<, B25@4K< 8 B>G=K<, :0: :0<5=L. > 2 ?@542845=88 1C4CI53> :0640O 4>102;5==0O 45B0;L O2;O5BAO 4>?>;=8B5;L=>9 =03@C7:>9! @0240  MB> BO65;0O @01>B0, 8  =5 4;O @0AA:07G8:>2 8AB>@89. K 4>;6=K 871530BL =5 B>;L:> >4C@0G820=8O D0=B0AB8:>9 2 2845 =0H59 =5A?>A>1=>AB8 A>25@H8BL <5=B0;L=>5 CA8;85, GB>1K @07C25@8BLAO 2 =59, => B0:65 B>3>, GB>1K D0=B0AB8:0 =0;>68;0AL =0 =0H5 <KH;5=85 8 AB0;0 B>G:>9 >BAG5B0 4;O =0H8E AC645=89.  <K 4>;6=K >A>7=020BL, GB> <K =5 2A5340 >A>7=05< MB> =0;>65=85.  48A:CAA8OE > 3;>10;L=KE @8A:0E >B=N4L =5 =5>1K:=>25==K :0B53>@88, 2K1>@K, ?>A;54AB28O 8 AB@0B5388, ?@8H54H85 87 D8;L<>2, :=83 8 B5;52878>==KE H>C. K20NB 87KA:0==K5 ?>@065=8O, => MB>  >B:@>25==0O :0?8BC;OF8O. 7. 0AAC645=8O, >1CA;>2;5==K5 0DD5:B><. 0AAC645=8O, >1CA;>2;5==K5 0DD5:B><, 2>7=8:0NB, :>340 AC1J5:B82=K5 ?@54AB02;5=8O > E>@>H5< 8 ?;>E>< 2KABC?0NB 2 :0G5AB25 <5B>40 @0AAC645=89 8 A?>A>1=K ?>@>640BL 1KAB@K5, >A=>20==K5 =0 =5?>A@54AB25==>< 2>A?@8OB88, AC645=8O, 0 B0:65 A8AB5<0B8G5A:85 >H81:8.  8AA;54>20=88 !;>28F0 [Slovic, 2002] 425 3@C??K 8A?KBC5<KE @0AA<0B@820;8 B0:>9 AF5=0@89: 0M@>?>@B 4>;65= @5H8BL, A;54C5B ;8 5<C ?>B@0B8BL 45=L38 =0 =>2>5 >1>@C4>20=85, 8;8 =0 4@C385 0A?5:BK A8AB5<K 157>?0A=>AB8. (:0;0 >B25B>2 @0=68@>20=0 >B 0 (=8:0:>9 ?>445@6:8) 4> 20 (>G5=L A8;L=0O ?>445@6:0). :070;>AL, GB> <5@>?@8OB85, >?8A0==>5 :0: !?0AB8 150 687=59 ?>;CG8;> A@54=NN ?>445@6:C 10,4, 2 B> 2@5<O :0: <5@>?@8OB85, >?8A0==>5 :0: !?0AB8 98% >B 150 687=59 8<5;> A@54=NN ?>445@6:C 2 13,6. 065 ?@54;>65=85 A?0AB8 85% >B 150 687=59 8<5;> 1;LHCN ?>445@6:C, G5< A?0A5=85 150 687=59. 8?>B570, ;560I0O 2 >A=>25 MB>3> M:A?5@8<5=B0, A>AB>O;0 2 B><, GB> A?0A5=85 150 687=59 72CG8B 4>2>;L=> @0A?;K2G0B> 8 ?>B><C 8<55B =51>;LHCN F5==>ABL, 2 B> 2@5<O :0: A?0A5=85 98% G53>-=81C4L MB> >G5=L E>@>H>, ?>B><C GB> MB> >G5=L 1;87:> : 25@E=59 3@0=8F5 ?@>F5=B=>9 H:0;K. $09=0:M9= [Finucane, 2000] 8AA;54>20;, >1J548=ONB ;8 ;N48 A2>8 >F5=:8 2>7<>6=KE ?@58<CI5AB2 >B =5:>9 B5E=>;>388, B0:>9 :0:, =0?@8<5@, O45@=0O M=5@35B8:0, A> A2>8<8 >F5=:0<8 2>7<>6=KE @8A:>2 2 548=>< E>@>H5< 8;8 ?;>E>< >ICI5=88 ?> ?>2>4C MB>9 B5E=>;>388. = B5AB8@>20; MBC 38?>B57C, ?@54;030O 8A?KBC5<K< G5BK@5 @07=KE A>>1I5=8O, :>B>@K5 4>;6=K 1K;8 C25;8G8BL 8;8 >A;018BL 2>A?@8=8<05<K5 @8A:8 8 2>A?@8=8<05<K5 ?@58<CI5AB20. 5 1K;> =8:0:>9 ;>38G5A:>9 A2O78 <564C ?@54>AB02;5==>9 8=D>@<0F859 > @8A:0E 8 > ?@58<CI5AB20E.  :064>< A;CG05 =>20O 8=D>@<0F8O >:07K20;0 ?@>B82>?>;>6=K9 MDD5:B =0 M<>F8>=0;L=> ?@>B82>?>;>6=CN E0@0:B5@8AB8:C. =D>@<0F8O, :>B>@0O C25;8G820;0 2>A?@8OB85 @8A:0, >A;01;O;0 2>A?@8OB85 ?@58<CI5AB2. =D>@<0F8O, :>B>@0O >A;01;O;0 2>A?@8OB85 ?@58<CI5AB2, C25;8G820;0 2>A?@8OB85 @8A:>2. $09=0:M9= >1=0@C68;, GB> =5E20B:0 2@5<5=8 >1KG=> CA8;8205B >B@8F0B5;L=CN 2708<>A2O7L <564C 2>A?@8=8<05<K<8 @8A:0<8 8 2>A?@8=8<05<K<8 ?@58<CI5AB20<8  ?@54?>;>68B5;L=> ?>B><C, GB> MB0 =5E20B:0 CA8;8205B ?@5>1;040=85 M<>F8>=0;L=KE <>45;59 @0AAC645=89 =04 0=0;8B8G5A:8< 0=0;87><. 0=70G [Ganzach, 2001] >1=0@C68; B>B 65 MDD5:B 2 F0@AB25 D8=0=A>2: 0=0;8B8:8 45;0NB ?@>3=>7K @8A:>2 8 4>E>4>2 =57=0:><KE 0:B82>2 =0 >A=>20=88 2 F5;>< M<>F8>=0;L=>3> >B=>H5=8O. :F88, 2>A?@8=8<02H85AO :0: E>@>H85, 1K;8 >?@545;5=K :0: 8<5NI85 =87:89 @8A: 8 2KA>:89 4>E>4; 0:F88, 2>A?@8=8<02H85AO :0: ?;>E85, >?@545;O;8AL :0: 8<5NI85 =87:89 4>E>4 8 2KA>:89 @8A:. "0:8< >1@07><, 4;O =57=0:><KE 0:F89, 2>A?@8=8<05<K9 @8A: 8 2>A?@8=8<05<K9 4>E>4 8<5;8 >B@8F0B5;L=CN :>@@5;OF8N, 2 A>>B25BAB288 A M<>F8>=0;L=>9 ;>38:>9. (B<5BLB5, GB> 2 MB>< M:A?5@8<5=B5 =5E20B:0 8=D>@<0F88 83@05B BC 65 @>;L, GB> 70=OB>ABL C<0 8;8 =5E20B:0 2@5<5=8 2 CA8;5=88 MDD5:B0 M<>F8>=0;L=>9 ;>38:8.) ;O 7=0:><KE 0:F89 2>A?@8=8<05<K9 @8A: 8 2>A?@8=8<05<K9 4>E>4 8<5;8 ?>78B82=CN :>@@5;OF8N, :0: MB> 8 ?@54A:07K205BAO 2 =>@<5 M:>=><8G5A:>9 B5>@859. (A;8 0:F88 157>?0A=K, ?>:C?0B5;L ?;0B8B ?@5<8N 70 8E 157>?0A=>ABL, 8 >=8 O2;ONBAO 1>;55 4>@>38<8, GB> C<5=LH05B >68405<K9 4>E>4.) N48 >1KG=> 8<5NB =54>AB0B>G=CN 8=D>@<0F8N > 1C4CI8E B5E=>;>38OE. >MB><C =5C4828B5;L=>, GB> 8E >B=>H5=85 M<>F8>=0;L=> ?>;O@87>20=>. >340 O B>;L:> =0G0; 4C<0BL >1 MB8E <0B5@8OE, O AG8B0;, GB> 18>B5E=>;>38O 8<55B >B=>A8B5;L=> <5=LH5 4>AB>8=AB2 A@02=8B5;L=> A =0=>B5E=>;>3859, 8 O 1>;LH5 1>O;AO A:>=AB@C8@>20==KE AC?5@28@CA>2, G5< 2@54>=>A=>3> ?@8<5=5=8O =0=>B5E=>;>389. A:CAAB25==K9 8=B5;;5:B, >B :>B>@>3> O >6840; =081>;LH8E 2K3>4, =8A:>;L:> =5 15A?>:>8; <5=O. >765, :>340 O 8AA;54>20; ?@>1;5<C 3>@074> 1>;55 45B0;L=>, <>O >F5=:0 >B=>A8B5;L=KE ?@58<CI5AB2 >AB0;0AL >B=>A8B5;L=> B0:>9 65, => <>8 B@52>38 AB0;8 ?@>B82>?>;>6=K<8: 1>;55 <>I=K5 B5E=>;>388, A 1>;LH8<8 >68405<K<8 2K3>40<8, B5?5@L 2K3;O4OB 8<5NI8<8 A>>B25BAB25==> 1>;LH85 @8A:8. ! @5B@>A?5:B82=>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O MB> 2?>;=5 ?@54A:07C5<>. > 0=0;87, >A=>20==K9 =0 =54>AB0B>G=>9 8=D>@<0F88, A:;>=5= >F5=820BL B5E=>;>388 M<>F8>=0;L=>, 2 @57C;LB0B5 G53> 8=D>@<0F8O > ?@58<CI5AB20E 8<55B B5=45=F8N A<O3G0BL 2>A?@8=8<05<K9 @8A:. 8. @5=51@565=85 <0AHB01>< (2,000 / 20,000 / 200,000) ?5@5;5B=KE ?B8F B>=CB :064K9 3>4 2 =570:@KBKE =5DB5E@0=8;8I0E, :>B>@K5 ?B8FK ?> >H81:5 ?@8=8<0NB 70 ?@C4K A 2>4>9. -B8 A<5@B8 <>3CB 1KBL ?@54>B2@0I5=K ?CB5< =0:@K20=8O E@0=8;8I A5BO<8. !:>;L:> 45=53 2K 1K;8 1K 3>B>2K 70?;0B8BL 70 CAB0=>2:C B0:8E A5B59? "@8 3@C??K 8A?KBC5<KE, @0AA<0B@8202H8E MB>B 2>?@>A, 1K;8 A?@>H5=K > B><, :0:>5 C25;8G5=85 =0;>30 >=8 1K;8 1K 3>B>2K ?@8=OBL, GB>1K A?0AB8 2.000, 20.000 8; 200.000 ?B8F. B25B, =0720==K9 #AB0=>2;5==0O >B>2=>ABL ;0B8BL (#), 1K; 2 A@54=5< $80 70 2.000 ?B8F, $78 70 20.000 8 $88 70 200.000 ?B8F. [Desvousges, 1993]. -B>B D5=><5= 8725AB5= :0: =5GC2AB28B5;L=>ABL : <0AHB01C 8;8 ?@5=51@565=85 <0AHB01><. >4>1=K5 8AA;54>20=88 ?>:070;8, GB> 68B5;8 ">@>=B> 3>B>2K 70?;0B8BL B>;L:> =5<=>38< 1>;LH5, GB>1K >G8AB8BL 2A5 >75@0 =B0@8>, G5< GB>1K >G8AB8BL 703@O75==K5 >75@0 B>;L:> G0AB8 HB0B0 [Kahneman, 1986], 8 GB> 68B5;8 G5BK@5E 70?04=KE HB0B>2 2 !( 3>B>2K 70?;0B8BL B>;L:> =0 28% 1>;LH5, GB>1K 70I8B8BL 2A5 57 C3>;:>2 48:>9 ?@8@>4K 2 MB8E HB0B0E, G5< GB>1K 70I8B8BL B>;L:> >48= B0:>9 C3>;>:. [McFadden 8 Leonard, 1995]. 081>;55 H8@>:> @0A?@>AB@0=5==>5 >1JOA=5=85 MDD5:B0 ?@5=51@565=8O <0AHB01>< 0?5;;8@C5B : M<>F8>=0;L=>9 ;>38:5. 0=5<0= [Kahneman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ahneman 8 Knetsch, 1992] 8 ?>65@B2>20=85 <>=5B:8 @048 4>1@>3> 45;0 [Harrison, 1992]. 8?>B570 > <>@0;L=>< C4>2;5B2>@5=88 ?@54?>;0305B, GB> ;N48 B@0BOB 4>AB0B>G=> 45=53, GB>1K A>740BL >ICI5=85 2=CB@5==59 B5?;>BK 2 A515, 8 B@51CNI89AO =0 MB> >1J5< 45=53 7028A8B >B G5;>25G5A:>9 ?A8E>;>388 8 =5 8<55B =8G53> >1I53> A ?B8F0<8. 8?>B570 > <>=5B:5 =0 1;03>B2>@8B5;L=>ABL ?@54?>;0305B, GB> ;N48 3>B>2K 2K45;8BL >?@545;5==CN AC<<C =0 M:>;>38N, 8 ;N1>9 2>?@>A > ?@>1;5<0E >:@C60NI59 A@54K ?@>AB> ?@>O2;O5B MB> :>;8G5AB2>. @5=51@565=85 <0AHB01>< 1K;> ?@>45<>=AB@8@>20=> 8 ?> >B=>H5=8N : G5;>25G5A:8< 687=O<. 0@A>= 8 8BG5;; [Carson and Mitchell,, 1995] A>>1I0NB, GB> 8=D>@<0F88 >1 C25;8G5=88 @8A:0, A2O70==>3> A ?8BL5< E;>@8@>20==>9 2>4K A 0.004 4> 2.43 =0 1000 A<5@B59 2 3>4 (B> 5ABL 2 600 @07) C25;8G8205B CAB0=2;5==CN 3>B>2=>ABL ?;0B8BL (#) ?;0B8BL A $3.78 4> $15.23 (B> 5ABL 4 @070). M9@>= 8 @8= [Baron and Greene, 1996] >1=0@C68;8, GB> 87<5=5=85 G8A;0 A?0A5==KE 687=59 2 10 @07 =5 >:07K205B =8:0:>3> MDD5:B0 =0 MB>B 8=45:A. $575@AB>=E>C [Fetherstonhaugh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ahneman, 1999] 8=B5@?@5B8@C5B MB> :0: 4>?>;=8B5;L=K9 MDD5:B M<>F8>=0;L=>9 @50:F88 =0 <0AHB01 : @50:F88 =0 ?5@2>=0G0;L=K9 >1@07: ?5@2>=0G0;L=K9 >1@07 2K7K205B 1;LHCN G0ABL M<>F88, 0 <0AHB01 2K7K205B <5=LHCN G0ABL M<>F88, :>B>@0O 4>102;O5BAO (=> =5 C<=>605BAO) : ?5@2>=0G0;L=><C :>;8G5AB2C. ;L15@B !5=B-LQ@48 (Albert Szent-Gyrgyi) 3>2>@8B: 0 <5=O ?@>872>4OB A8;L=>5 2?5G0B;5=85 AB@040=8O >4=>3> G5;>25:0, 8 O 3>B>2 @8A:>20BL A2>59 687=LN @048 =53>. > O <>3C 3>2>@8BL A>25@H5==> >BAB@0=5==> > 70@065=88 =0H8E 1>;LH8E 3>@>4>2 A A>B=O<8 <8;;8>=>2 ?>381H8E. / =5 A?>A>15= C<=>68BL AB@040=8O >4=>3> =0 AB> <8;;8>=>2. '5;>25G5A:85 M<>F88 2>7=8:0NB 2=CB@8 0=0;>3>2>3> C<0. '5;>25G5A:89 <>73 =5 A?>A>15= 2K@01>B0BL 4>AB0B>G=> =59@>B@0=A<8BB5@>2, GB>1K ?>GC2AB2>20BL M<>F8N 2 BKAOGC @07 1>;55 A8;L=CN, G5< 3>@5 =0 ?>E>@>=0E. #25;8G5=85 2>7<>6=>3> @8A:0 A 45AOB8 <8;;8>=>2 A<5@B59 4> AB0 <8;;8>=>2 =5 C25;8G8205B 2 45AOBL @07 =0HC @5H8<>ABL =5 4>?CAB8BL MB>3>. -B> ?@>AB> 4>102;5=85 5I5 >4=>3> =>;8:0 =0 1C<035 C =0A ?5@54 3;070<8, GB> 8<55B AB>;L =51>;LH>9 MDD5:B, GB> >1KG=> =5>1E>48<> 87<5=8BL :>;8G5AB2> 65@B2 =0 =5A:>;L:> ?>@O4:>2, GB>1K 70<5B8BL @07=8FC M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=>. 9. 0;81@>2:0 8 A25@EC25@5==>ABL 0A:>;L:> ;N48 C25@5=K 2 A2>8E >H81>G=KE >F5=:0E?  ?5@2>< @0745;5 MB>9 AB0BL8, ?>A2OI5==>< MDD5:BC 4>ABC?=>AB8 8=D>@<0F88, <K >1AC48;8 M:A?5@8<5=B ?> 2>A?@8OB8N @8A:0, 2 :>B>@>< 8A?KBC5<K5 ?5@5>F5=820;8 B8?8G=K5 4;O A>>1I5=89 A@54AB2 <0AA>2>9 8=D>@<0F88 ?@8G8=K A<5@B8 2 ?@>?>@F88, :>@@5;8@CNI59 A 8718@0B5;L=K<8 A>>1I5=8O<8 2 3075B0E. !;>28F [Slovic, 1982] B0:65 >B<5G05B: 4=8< 87 ?03C1=KE 0A?5:B>2 <>45;59 @0AAC645=89 O2;O5BAO B>, GB> ;N48 >1KG=> 8<5NB >G5=L 1>;LHCN C25@5==>ABL 2 AC645=8OE, >A=>20==KE =0 =8E.  4@C3>< 8AA;54>20=88 ?> ?>2>4C ?@8G8= A<5@B8, ;N459 ?@>A8;8 A45;0BL AB02:8 =0 B>, GB> >=8 ?@02K 2 A2>5< 2K1>@5 1>;55 G0AB>9 A@548 42CE ?@8G8= A<5@B8. [Fischoff, Slovic, 8 Lichtenstein, 1977].  M:A?5@8<5=B5 !1 8A?KBC5<K5 1K;8 4>2>;L=> B>G=K, :>340 45;0;8 AB02:8 1:1, 1.5:1, 2:1, 8 3:1. "> 5ABL, ?@>F5=B ?@028;L=KE >B25B>2 1K; 1;87>: : 7=0G5=8N, :>B>@>5 A;54>20;> 87 MB8E AB02>:. 4=0:>, ?> <5@5 C25;8G5=8O AB02>: >B 3:1 : 100:1 ?>GB8 =8:0:>3> ?@8@>AB0 B>G=>AB8 =5 ?@>8AE>48;>. ">;L:> 73% >B25B>2, =0 :>B>@K5 A45;0;8 AB02:8 100:1, 1K;8 25@=K (2<5AB> 99.1%). ">G=>ABL 2>7@>A;0 4> 81% ?@8 AB02:0E 1000:1 8 4> 87% ?@8 10.000:1. ;O >B25B>2, =0 :>B>@K5 AB028;8 1000000:1, B>G=>ABL A>AB02;O;0 90%, B> 5ABL, A>>B25BAB2CNI89 C@>25=L 4>25@8O 4>;65= 1K; 1K ?>@>640BL AB02:8 9:1.  8B>35, 8A?KBC5<K5 G0AB> >H810;8AL 4065 ?@8 2KA>G09H8E C@>2=OE AB02>:. >;55 B>3>, >=8 1K;8 A:;>==K 45;0BL >G5=L 2KA>:85 AB02:8. >;55 ?>;>28=K AB02>: 1K;0 2KH5, G5< 50:1. >GB8 G5B25@BL  2KH5, G5< 100:1. 30% @5A?>=45=B>2 2 M:A?5@8<5=B5 !1 A45;0;8 AB02:C 50:1 =0 =525@=>5 CB25@645=85, GB> C189AB20 1>;55 G0ABK, G5< A0<>C189AB20. -B>B :06CI89AO C4828B5;L=K< @57C;LB0B 2?>;=5 >1KG5= 2 ;8B5@0BC@5, ?>A2OI5==>9 <>45;O< @0AAC645=89 8 A8AB5<0B8G5A:8< >H81:0< 2 <KH;5=88, 345 >= 8725AB5= :0: A25@EC25@5==>ABL. >?CAB8<, O ?>?@>HC 20A A45;0BL =08;CGH55 2>7<>6=>5 ?@54?>;>65=85 =0AG5B =58725AB=>3> G8A;0, B0:>3>, :0: :>;8G5AB2> @0G59 8 E8@C@3>2 2 65;BKE AB@0=8F0E 1>AB>=A:>9 B5;5D>==>9 :=835, 8;8 > AC<<0@=>9 ?@>4C:F88 O8F 2 !( 2 <8;;8>=0E HBC:. K 4048B5 2 >B25B =5:CN 25;8G8=C, :>B>@0O =025@=O:0 =5 1C45B A>25@H5==> B>G=>9; ?>4;8==0O 25;8G8=0 1C45B 1>;LH5 8;8 <5=LH5, G5< 2K ?@54?>;>68;8. 0B5< O ?>?@>HC 20A =0720BL =86=NN 3@0=8FC MB>3> ?>:070B5;O, B0:CN, =0AG5B :>B>@>9 2K C25@5=K =0 99%, GB> ?>4;8==0O 25;8G8=0 ;568B 2KH5 MB>9 3@0=8FK, 8 25@E=NN 3@0=8FC, ?> >B=>H5=8N : :>B>@>9 2K =0 99% C25@5=K, GB> 8A:><0O 25;8G8=0 ;568B =865 =55. -B8 425 3@0=8FK >1@07CNB 20H 8=B5@20; 98% C25@5==>AB8 (confidence interval). A;8 2K E>@>H> >B:0;81@>20=K (well-calibrated) , B> =0 100 ?>4>1=KE 2>?@>A>2 C 20A 1C45B B>;L:> ?@8<5@=> 2 2K?045=8O 70 3@0=8FK 8=B5@20;0. ;?5@B 8 08DD0 (Alpert 8 Raiffa) (1982) 7040;8 8A?KBC5<K< 1000 2>?@>A>2 ?> >1I58725AB=K< B5<0<, ?>4>1=KE ?@82545==K< 2KH5. :070;>AL, GB> 426 87 =8E ?>4;8==K5 7=0G5=8O ;560;8 70 ?@545;0<8 98% 8=B5@20;>2 C25@5==>AB8, 40==KE 8A?KBC5<K<8. A;8 1K 8A?KBC5<K5 1K;8 ?@028;L=> >B:0;81@>20=K, 1K;> 1K B>;L:> 20 AN@?@87>2. =K<8 A;>20<8, A>1KB8O, :>B>@K< 8A?KBC5<K5 ?@8?8AK20;8 25@>OB=>ABL 2%, A;CG0;8AL 2 42.6%. @C3CN 3@C??C 87 B@84F0B8 ?OB8 8A?KBC5<KE ?>?@>A8;8 >F5=8BL 99.9% 25@E=85 8 =86=85 3@0=8FK C25@5==>AB8. =8 >:070;8AL =5?@02K 2 40% A;CG052. @C385 35 AC1J5:B>2 1K;8 >?@>H5=K > <0:A8<0;L=KE 8 <8=8<0;L=KE 7=0G5=8OE =5:>3> ?0@0<5B@0 8 >H81;8AL 2 47% A;CG052. 0:>=5F, G5B25@B0O 3@C??0 87 35 AC1J5:B>2 4>;6=0 1K;0 C:070BL =525@>OB=> <0;>5 8 =525@>OB=> 1>;LH>5 7=0G5=85 ?0@0<5B@0; >=8 >H81;8AL 2 38% A;CG052.  A;54CNI5< M:A?5@8<5=B5 =>2>9 3@C??5 8A?KBC5<KE 1K; ?@54>AB02;5= ?5@2K9 =01>@ 2>?@>A>2 2<5AB5 A >B25B0<8, @59B8=3>< >F5=>:, A @0AA:07>< > @57C;LB0B0E M:A?5@8<5=B>2 8 @07JOA=5=85< :>=F5?F88 :0;81@>2:8, 8 70B5< 8E ?>?@>A8;8 40BL 98% 8=B5@20;K C25@5==>AB8 4;O =>2>9 3@C??K 2>?@>A>2. @>H54H85 ?>43>B>2:C AC1J5:BK >H81;8AL 2 19% A;CG0OE, GB> O2;O5B A>1>9 7=0G8B5;L=>5 C;CGH5=85 8E @57C;LB0B0 2 34% 4> ?>43>B>2:8, => 2A5 5I5 25AL<0 40;5:> >B E>@>H> >B:0;81@>20==>3> @57C;LB0B0 2 2%. >4>1=K5 C@>2=8 >H81>: 1K;8 >1=0@C65=K 8 C M:A?5@B>2. %8=A 8 M=<0@: [Hynes 8 Vanmarke, 1976] >?@>A8;8 A5<L 2A5<8@=> 8725AB=KE 35>B5E=8:>2 =0 ?@54<5B 2KA>BK 40<1K, :>B>@0O 2K7>25B @07@CH5=85 DC=40<5=B0 87 3;8=8ABKE ?>@>4, 8 ?>?@>A8;8 >F5=8BL 8=B5@20; 50% C25@5==>AB8 2>:@C3 MB>9 >F5=:8. :070;>AL, GB> =8 >48= 87 ?@54;>65==KE 8=B5@20;>2 =5 2:;NG0; 2 A51O ?@028;L=CN 2KA>BC. @8AB5=A5=-0;0=A:8 8 CH8E54 [Christensen-Szalanski 8 Bushyhead, 1981] >?@>A8;8 3@C??C 2@0G59 =0 ?@54<5B 25@>OB=>AB8 ?=52<>=88 C 1531 ?0F85=B0 A :0H;5<.  =081>;55 B>G=> C:070==>< 8=B5@20;5 C25@5==>AB8 A 70O2;5==>9 4>AB>25@=>ABLN 2 88%, 4>;O ?0F85=B>2, 459AB28B5;L=> 8<52H8E ?=52<>=8N, 1K;0 <5=55 20%. >2>@O A;>20<8 ;?5@B0 8 08DDK [Alpert 8 Raiffa,, 1982]: 048 >30, @0AH8@O9B5 A2>8 :@09=85 >F5=:8! C4LB5 G5AB=K A A>1>9! >?CAB8B5, GB> 2K =5 7=05B5!. 8EB5=HB59= [Lichtenstein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uehler, 1994] ?>?@>A8; ABC45=B>2-?A8E>;>3>2 ?@54A:070BL 206=K9 ?0@0<5B@: 2@5<O A40G8 8E 48?;><=KE @01>B. AA;54>20B5;8 ?>4>640;8, :>340 ABC45=BK ?@81;878;8AL : :>=FC A2>8E 3>48G=KE ?@>5:B>2 8 70B5< ?>?@>A8;8 8E @50;8AB8G=> >F5=8BL, :>340 >=8 A404CB A2>8 @01>BK, 0 B0:65, :>340 >=8 A404CB A2>8 @01>BK, 5A;8 2A5 ?>945B B0: ?;>E>, :0: B>;L:> <>65B.  A@54=5<, ABC45=B0< ?>B@51>20;>AL 55 4=59, GB>1K 7025@H8BL A2>8 48?;><K, =0 22 4=O 1>;LH5, G5< >=8 >6840;8, 8 =0 7 4=59 1>;LH5, G5< >=8 >6840;8 2 EC4H5< A;CG05. C;5@ [Buehler, 1994] >?@>A8; ABC45=B>2 > 2@5<5=8, : :>B>@><C ABC45=BK =0 50% C25@5=K, =0 75% C25@5=K 8 =0 99% C25@5=K, GB> >=8 70:>=G0B A2>8 0:045<8G5A:85 ?@>5:BK. ">;L:> 13% CG0AB=8:>2 70:>=G8;8 A2>8 48?;><K : <><5=BC, :>B>@><C ?@8?8AK20;8 50% 25@>OB=>ABL, B>;L:> 19% 70:>=G8;8 : <><5=BC 75% >F5=:8 8 45% 70:>=G8;8 :> 2@5<5=8, >F5=8202H5<CAO 2 99% C25@5==>AB8. C;5@ [Buehler et. al., 2002] ?8H5B @57C;LB0BK 2KE>40 =0 C@>25=L 99% 4>AB>25@=>AB8 >A>15==> 2?5G0B;ONI8. 065 :>340 8E ?>?@>A8;8 A45;0BL =081>;55 :>=A5@20B82=>5 ?@54A:070=85, 2 >B=>H5=88 :>B>@>3> >=8 GC2AB2>20;8 01A>;NB=CN C25@5==>ABL, GB> 53> 4>AB83=CB, 2A5 @02=> C25@5==>ABL ABC45=B>2 2 8E 2@5<5==KE >F5=:0E =0<=>3> ?@52>AE>48;0 8E @50;L=K5 @57C;LB0BK. LN18-;0@: [Newby-Clark et. al., 2000] >1=0@C68;8, GB> >?@>AK 8A?KBC5<KE >1 8E ?@54A:070=8OE, >A=>20==KE =0 =081>;55 @50;8AB8G=>< ?@54?>;>65=88, 8 >?@>AK 8A?KBC5<KE >1 8E =045640E 2 A0<>< ;CGH5< A;CG05 4020;8 =5@07;8G8<K5 @57C;LB0BK. C4CG8 A?@>H5=K > =081>;55 25@>OB=>< AB5G5=88 >1AB>OB5;LAB2, ;N48 8<5;8 B5=45=F8N ?@54?>;030BL, GB> 2A5 ?>945B B0:, :0: ?;0=8@>20;>AL, 157 =5>6840==KE 7045@65: 8 =5?@542845==KE :0B0AB@>D, B> 5ABL B0: 65, :0: 2 =08;CGH5< A;CG05. 50;L=>ABL, :0: >:070;>AL, 70G0ABCN ?@5?>4=>A8B @57C;LB0BK, EC4H85, G5< A0<K9 =08EC4H89 A;CG09.  MB>9 AB0BL5 <K >1AC6405< A25@EC25@5==>ABL ?>A;5 >1AC645=8O A8AB5<0B8G5A:>9 >H81:8 ?>4B25@645=8O 8 G0AB=>3> A;CG0O  A8AB5<0B8G5A:>9 >H81:8 =5?>4B25@645=8O. =0=85 >1 MDD5:B5 :0;81@>2:5  MB> >?0A=>5 7=0=85, ?>A:>;L:C >G5=L A>1;07=8B5;L=> ?@8<5=OBL 53> 8718@0B5;L=>. 0A:>;L:> 3;C? <>9 >??>=5=B, GB>1K 1KBL C25@5==K< 2 A2>8E 0@3C<5=B0E. =05B ;8 >=, :0: G0AB> ;N48 >H810NBAO 2 B><, 2 G5< >=8 C25@5=K? A;8 2K >1=0@C68205B5, GB> <=5=8O M:A?5@B0 8<5NB 3>@074> <5=LH5 7=0G5=8O, G5< 2K @0=LH5 4C<0;8, 20< AB>8B B0:65 ?>=OBL, GB> 20H8 A>1AB25==K5 <KA;8 B>65 3>@074> A;0155, G5< 2K 4C<0;8 @0=LH5: 8 B>340 ?>B@51C5BAO <5=LH5 CA8;89, GB>1K C2;5GL 20A 2 AB>@>=C >B 20H8E ;N18<KE 25@>20=89.  ?@>B82=>< A;CG05 2K AB0=5B5 <54;5==55 @5038@>20BL =0 =>2K5 A2845B5;LAB20. K >:07K205B5AL 2 3>@074> 1>;55 EC4H5< ?>;>65=88, G5<, 5A;8 1K 2K =8:>340 =5 A;KH0;8 > :0;81@>2:5. > MB>9 ?@8G8=5  G0AB>, =5A<>B@O =0 7=0G8B5;L=>5 8A:CH5=85  O 871530N >1AC645=8O 8AA;54>20=89 ?> :0;81@>2:5, 4> B>3> :0: O >1AC6C A8AB5<0B8G5A:CN >H81:C ?>4B25@645=8O, 4;O B>3>, GB>1K O <>3 A45;0BL B0:>5 65 ?@54C?@5645=85. B<5BLB5 B0: 65, GB> >F5=:0 M:A?5@B0, A8;L=> C25@5==>3> 2 A2>5< <=5=88, ?@8=F8?80;L=> >B;8G05BAO >B 2KG8A;5=89, A45;0==KE 8A:;NG8B5;L=> =0 >A=>25 AB0B8AB8G5A:8E 40==KE, 8;8 8A:;NG8B5;L=> =0 >A=>25 045:20B=>9, B>G=> ?>4B25@645==>9 <>45;8. > 2A5E A;CG0OE, :>340 M:A?5@B CB25@6405B, 4065 =0 >A=>20=88 B>G=KE 2KG8A;5=89, GB> A>1KB85 8<55B 25@>OB=>ABL 10-6, , >= =025@=O:0 >H8105BAO G0I5, G5< >48= @07 =0 <8;;8>=. > 5A;8 1K :><18=0B>@8:0 =5 <>3;0 B>G=> ?@54A:070BL, GB> ;>B5@59=K9 18;5B 8<55B 10-8 H0=A 2K83@0BL, B> ?@>402FK 18;5B>2 1K @07>@8;8AL. 10. ?0B8O ?@>E>653> >A;54=OO @0AA<0B@8205<0O <=>9 A8AB5<0B8G5A:0O >H81:0 >B=>A8BAO =5 : >1;0AB8 <>45;59 @0AAC645=89, => : >1;0AB8 A>F80;L=>9 ?A8E>;>388.  =K=5 7=0<5=8B>9 A5@88 M:A?5@8<5=B>2 M9B5= 8 M@;8 [Latane 8 Darley, 1969] >B:@K;8 MDD5:B ?@>E>653>, 8725AB=K9 B0:65 :0: 0?0B8O ?@>E>653>, :>B>@K9 A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> 2 1>;LH8E 3@C??0E ;N48 <5=55 A:;>==K @5038@>20BL =0 G@572KG09=K5 A8BC0F88  =5 B>;L:> 8=48284C0;L=>, => 8 :>;;5:B82=>. 75% 8A?KBC5<KE, 1C4CG8 >4=8 2 :><=0B5 8 70<5B82 4K< 87-?>4 425@8, 2KE>4OB, GB>1K A>>1I8BL >1 MB><. >340 2 :><=0B5 =0E>4OBAO B@>5 8A?KBC5<KE, =5 7=0NI8E >1 CA;>28OE >?KB0, > 4K<5 A>>1I0NB B>;L:> 2 38% A;CG052. A?KBC5<K9, =0E>4OAL 2 :><?0=88 42CE ?>4A04=KE CB>:, =0@>G=> =5 @5038@CNI8E =0 4K<, 2KE>48B, GB>1K A>>1I8BL > 4K<5 B>;L:> 2 10% A;CG052. !BC45=B :>;;5460, 87>1@0602H89 M?8;5?B8G5A:89 ?@8?04>:, ?>;CG8; ?><>IL >B 548=AB25==>3> A2845B5;O 2 85% A;CG052 8 B>;L:> 2 31% A;CG052 2 ?@8ACBAB288 ?OB5@KE A2845B5;59. -DD5:B ?@>E>653> >1KG=> >1JOA=O5BAO :0: ?@>8AE>4OI89 87 @0AA5O=8O >B25BAB25==>AB8 8 83=>@8@>20=8O 87-70 =5>?@545;5==>AB8 A8BC0F88. 0E>645=85 2 3@C??5 C<5=LH05B 8=48284C0;L=CN >B25BAB25==>ABL. 064K9 =0455BAO, GB> :B>-B> 4@C3>9 @0715@5BAO A ?@>1;5<>9 2<5AB> =8E, 8 MB> >A;01;O5B ;8G=CN =0?@O65==>ABL :064>3> ?> ?>2>4C B>3>, GB> =8:B> =8G53> =5 45;05B. >4B25@645=85< MB>9 38?>B57K O2;ONBAO >?KBK, 2 :>B>@KE 8A?KBC5<K5 25@8;8, GB> 65@B20 >A>15==> 7028A8B >B =8E: MB> >A;01;O;> 8;8 ?>;=>ABLN CAB@0=O;> MDD5:B @02=>4CH8O ?@>E>653>. &80;48=8 [Cialdini, 2001] @5:><5=4C5B G5;>25:C, >:0702H5<CAO 2 G@572KG09=>9 A8BC0F88, 2K45;8BL >4=>3> >48=>:>3> ?@>E>653> 8 ?>?@>A8BL 53> > ?><>I8  B0:8< >1@07>< ?@5>4>;520O @0AA5O=85 >B25BAB25==>AB8. 3=>@8@>20=85 87-70 =5>?@545;5==>AB8 A8BC0F88 O2;O5BAO 1>;55 B>=:8< MDD5:B><. &80;48=8 [Cialdini, 2001] ?8H5B: '0AB> G@572KG09=0O A8BC0F8O 40;5:> =5 >G5284=0. /2;O5BAO ;8 G5;>25:, ;560I89 2 ?0@:5, 65@B2>9 A5@45G=>3> ?@8ABC?0 8;8 A?OI8< ?LO=K<?  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[Good, 1952]; [Horvitz et. al., 1989]. / A?>A>15= ?>-=0AB>OI5<C >F5=8BL F5==>ABL OA=>3> <KH;5=8O > 3;>10;L=KE @8A:0E =5 1>;55, G5< ;L15@B C5=B-Q@468 (Albert Szent-Gyrgyi) A?>A>15= C<=>68BL AB@040=8O >4=>3> G5;>25:0 =0 AB> <8;;8>=>2. @5=51@565=85 <0AHB01><  5AB5AB25==0O >?0A=>ABL 4;O 18>;>38G5A:>3> G5;>25:0, @01>B0NI53> =0 0=0;>3>2>< C<5; <>73 =5 A?>A>15= C<=>60BL =0 H5ABL <8;;80@4>2. > AB02:8 3;>10;L=KE @8A:>2 ?@>AB8@0NBAO 40;5:> 70 ?@545;K 687=59 H5AB8 <8;;80@4>2 ;N459, 682CI8E A59G0A  >=8 ?@>AB8@0NBAO :> 2A5< 725740< 8 :> 2A5< 30;0:B8:0<, :>B>@K5 ;N48 8 8E ?>B><:8 A<>3CB >4=064K 4>AB8GL.  25AL MB>B >3@><=K9 ?>B5=F80; 2@0I05BAO 2>:@C3 =0H53> 2K6820=8O 745AL, A59G0A, 2 B5 4=8, :>340 F0@AB2> G5;>25G5AB20  MB> >4=0 ?;0=5B0, 2@0I0NI0OAO 2>:@C3 >4=>9 72574K. / =5 <>3C ?>GC2AB2>20BL =0H5 1C4CI55. A5, GB> O <>3C  MB> 70I8I0BL 53>. 5:><5=4C5<>5 GB5=85 !C645=85 2 CA;>28OE =5>?@545;5==>AB8: M2@8AB8:0 8 A8AB5<0B8G5A:85 >H81:8. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. 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Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12: 129-140. Wilson, T.D., Houston, C., Etling, K.M. and Brekke, N. 1996. A new look at anchoring effects: Basic anchoring and its antecedents. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 4: 387-402. E;8575@ .4:>2A:8. A:CAAB25==K9 8=B5;;5:B :0: ?>78B82=K9 8 =530B82=K9 D0:B>@ 3;>10;L=>3> @8A:0. Eliezer Yudkowsky Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk KE>48B 2 2007 3>4C 2 A1>@=8:5 8A:8 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>DK ?>4 @540:F859 8:0 >AB@><0 8 8;0=0 &8@:>28G0, :AD>@4. 5@52>4: ;5:A59 0;5@L528G "C@G8=. ( HYPERLINK "mailto:avturchin@mail.ru" avturchin@mail.ru) 07@5H5=> =5:><<5@G5A:>5 8A?>;L7>20=85 ?5@52>40. >: D09; A D>@<0B8@>20=85<:  HYPERLINK "http://www.avturchin.narod.ru/ai.doc" www.avturchin.narod.ru/ai.doc "5:AB>20O 25@A8O: http://www.proza.ru/texts/2007/03/22-285.html @838=0;: http://www.singinst.org/reading/corereading Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic Draft of August 31, 2006 Eliezer Yudkowsky (yudkowsky@singinst.org) Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Palo Alto, CA 2545=85. (1) > A8E ?>@ >A=>2=>9 >?0A=>ABLN 8A:CAAB25==>3> 8=B5;;5:B0 () 1K;> B>, GB> ;N48 A;8H:>< @0=> 45;0;8 2K2>4, GB> >=8 53> ?>=8<0NB. 07C<55BAO, MB0 ?@>1;5<0 =5 >3@0=8G5=0 . Jacques Monod ?8H5B: 70102=K< 0A?5:B>< B5>@88 M2>;NF88 O2;O5BAO B>, GB> :064K9 4C<05B, GB> ?>=8<05B 5Q. (Monod, 1974.) >9 >B5F, D878:, 60;>20;AO =0 ;N459, ?@84C<K202H8E A2>8 A>1AB25==K5 D878G5A:85 B5>@88: 8=B5@5A=> 7=0BL, ?>G5<C ;N48 =5 ?@84C<K20NB A2>8 A>1AB25==K5 B5>@88 E8<88? (> >=8 45;0NB.) "5< =5 <5=55, ?@>1;5<0 O2;O5BAO >A>15==> 0:BC0;L=>9 2 >1;0AB8 . 1;0ABL  8<55B @5?CB0F8N B>3>, GB> >=0 40QB >3@><=K5 >15I0=8O 8 =5 8A?>;=O5B 8E. >;LH8=AB2> =01;N40B5;59 AG8B0NB, GB>  B@C45=, 8 MB> =0 A0<>< 45;5 B0:. > 70?CB0==>ABL =5 ?@>8AE>48B 87 B@C4=>AB8. 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ooby 8 Cosmides, 1992.) 4=0 <0;8=>2:0 <>65B 8<5BL 1>;55 3;04:85 ?5@LO, G5< 4@C30O, => C >158E 4>;6=K 1KBL :@K;LO. AB5AB25==K9 >B1>@, 428305<K9 @07=>>1@0785<, AC605B MB> @07=>>1@0785. (Sober, 1984.)  :064>9 8725AB=>9 :C;LBC@5 ;N48 8A?KBK20NB 3@CABL, >B2@0I5=85, O@>ABL, AB@0E 8 C482;5=85 (Brown, 1991), 8 ?5@540NB MB8 M<>F88 >4=8<8 8 B5<8 65 2K@065=8O<8 ;8F0. # =0A C 2A5E ?>4 :0?>B>< >48= 8 B>B 65 <>B>@, E>BO <K <>65< 8 1KBL @0A:@0H5=K @07=K<8 :@0A:0<8; MB>B ?@8=F8? M2>;NF8>==K5 ?A8E>;>38 =07K20NB ?A8E8G5A:8< 548=AB2>< G5;>25G5AB20. (Tooby and Cosmides, 1992). -B> >?8A0=85 8 >1JOA=O5BAO, 8 B@51C5BAO 70:>=0<8 M2>;NF8>==>9 18>;>388. =B@>?>;>3 =5 1C45B 2>AB>@65==> ?8A0BL > =>2>>B:@KB>< ?;5<5=8: =8 54OB 54C! =8 4KH0B 2>74CE><! =8 8A?>;L7CNB 8=AB@C<5=BK! =8 @0AA:07K20NB 4@C3 4@C3C 8AB>@88! K, ;N48, 701K205<, :0: <K ?>4>1=K 4@C3 4@C3C, 682O 2 <8@5, :>B>@K9 =0?><8=05B =0< B>;L:> > =0H8E @07;8G8OE. N48 =0CG8;8AL <>45;8@>20BL 4@C38E ;N459, - GB>1K A>@52=>20BLAO 8 :>>?5@8@>20BLAO A> A2>8<8 A>@>48G0<8. -B> 1K;> =04Q6=K< 8=AB@C<5=B>< 2 <8@5 =0H8E ?@54:>2, 345 ;N1>9 A8;L=K9 C<, :>B>@K9 20< ?>?040;AO, 1K; B>65 G5;>25:><. 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aynes =0720; >H81>G=>ABLN, A2O70==>9 A C<AB25==>9 ?@>5:F859 (mind projection fallacy). (Jaynes and Bretthorst, 2003.) Jaynes, A?5F80;8AB ?> 1095A>2A:>9 B5>@88 4>AB>25@=>AB8, >?@545;8; >H81>G=>ABLN, A2O70==CN A C<AB25==>9 ?@>5:F859 :0: >H81:C, A2O70==CN A B5<, GB> A>AB>O=8O 7=0=8O ?5@5?CB0=K A> A2>9AB20<8 >1J5:B>2. 0?@8<5@, D@070 <8AB8G5A:89 D5=><5= ?>4@07C<5205B, GB> <8AB8G=>ABL  MB> A2>9AB2> A0<>3> D5=><5=0. A;8 O =5>A254><;5= >B=>A8B5;L=> =5:>3> D5=><5=0, B> MB> D0:B > <>Q< A>AB>O=88 A>7=0=8O, 0 =5 > A0<>< D5=><5=5.) N4O< =5B =C64K ?>=8<0BL, GB> >=8 0=B@>?><>@D878@CNB (8;8 E>BO 1K ?>=8<0BL, GB> >=8 2>2;5G5=K 2 A><=8B5;L=K9 0:B ?@54A:070=8O A>AB>O=8O GC6>3> C<0) 4;O B>3>, GB>1K 0=B@>?><>@D87< ?>2;8O; =0 <KH;5=85. >340 <K ?KB05<AO @0AAC640BL > GC6>< A>7=0=88, :064K9 H03 @0AAC645=89 <>65B 1KBL A>548=Q= A ?@54?>;>65=8O<8, =0AB>;L:> >G5284=K<8 4;O G5;>25G5A:>3> >?KB0, GB> <K >1@0I05< =0 =8E 2=8<0=8O =5 1>;LH5, G5< =0 2>74CE 8;8 3@028B0F8N. K 2>7@0605B5 6C@=0;L=><C 8;;NAB@0B>@C: 5 O2;O5BAO ;8 1>;55 ?@024>?>4>1=K<, GB> >3@><=K9 6C:-A0<5F 1C45B A5:AC0;L=> 65;0BL >3@><=KE 6C:>2-A0<>:? ;;NAB@0B>@ =5<=>3> ?>4C<05B 8 A:065B: > 4065 5A;8 1K 8=>?;0=5B=K5 8=A5:B>84K =0G8=0;8 A ;N128 : B2Q@4K< M:7>A:5;5B0<, ?>A;5 B>3>, :0: 8=A5:B>84 ?>2AB@5G05B 65=I8=C-G5;>25:0, >= 2A:>@5 ?>9<QB, GB> C =5Q 3>@074> 1>;55 <O3:0O 8 =56=0O :>60. A;8 C 8=>?;0=5BO= 8<55BAO 4>AB0B>G=> ?@>428=CB0O B5E=>;>38O, >=8 <>3CB 35=5B8G5A:8 87<5=8BL A51O, GB>1K ;N18BL <O3:CN :>6C, 0 =5 B2Q@4K5 M:7>A:5;5BK. -B> - >H81>G=>ABL->48=-H03-=0704 (fallacy-at-one-remove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illiams (1966). -2>;NF8>==0O 18>;>38O ?@54;0305B >1CG5=85 =0 >A=>25 :0: <0B5<0B8:8, B0: 8 :>=:@5B=KE ?@8<5@>2, ?><>30NI85 2K18BL 87 A51O >H81:C >G5;>25G820=8O. 1.1: (8@>B0 ?@>AB@0=AB20 2>7<>6=KE CAB@>9AB2 C<0. (The width of mind design space). -2>;NF8O 6QAB:> A>E@0=O5B =5:>B>@K5 AB@C:BC@K.  B>9 <5@5, :0: @0728B85 4@C38E 35=>2 >?8@05BAO =0 @0=55 ACI5AB2>202H89 35=, MB>B @0==89 35= ?>;=>ABLN F5<5=B8@C5BAO: >= =5 <>65B <CB8@>20BL, =5 =0@CH0O <=>65AB2> D>@< 040?B0F88. ><5>B8G5A:85 (Homeotic) 35=K  35=K, :>=B@>;8@CNI85 @0728B55 AB@C:BC@K B5;0 M<1@8>=0  3>2>@OB <=>65AB2C 4@C38E 35=>2, :>340 0:B828@>20BLAO. CB0F8O 3><5>B8G5A:>3> 35=0 <>65B ?@825AB8 : B><C, GB> M<1@8>= ?;>4>2>9 <CH:8 @07>2LQBAO =>@<0;L=>, 70 8A:;NG5=85< B>3>, GB> C =53> =5 1C45B 3>;>2K.  @57C;LB0B5 3><5>B8G5A:85 35=K AB>;L B>G=> A>E@0=ONBAO, GB> <=>385 87 =8E >4=8 8 B5 65 C G5;>25:0 8 ?;>4>2>9 <CH:8  >=8 =5 87<5=8;8AL A> 2@5<Q= ?>A;54=53> >1I53> ?@54:0 G5;>25:0 8 =0A5:><KE. >;5:C;O@=K5 <5E0=87<K A8=B570 "$ ?> ACI5AB2C >4=8 8 B5 65 2 <8B>E>=4@8OE 682>B=KE, E;>@>?;0AB0E @0AB5=89 8 C 10:B5@89; A8=B57 "$ =5 ?@5B5@?5; 7=0G8B5;L=KE 87<5=5=89 A @0728B8O MC:0@8>B>2 2 <8;;80@40 ;5B =0704. N1K5 420 CAB@>9AB20  <>3CB 1KBL <5=55 ?>E>68 4@C3 =0 4@C30, G5< 2K 8 A04>2K9 F25B>: ?5BC=8O. "5@<8=  >B=>A8BAO : 3>@074> 1>;LH5<C ?@>AB@0=AB2C 2>7<>6=>AB59, G5< B5@<8= "Homo sapiens". >340 <K 3>2>@8< > @07=KE , <K 3>2>@8< >1 C<0E 2>>1I5, 8;8 > ?@>F5AA0E >?B8<870F88 2>>1I5. @54AB02LB5 A515 :0@BC 2>7<>6=KE CAB@>9AB2 C<0.  >4=>< C3;C <0;5=L:89 :@C6>G5: >7=0G05B 2A5E ;N459.  2AO MB0 :0@B0 =0E>48BAO 2=CB@8 5IQ 1>;LH53> ?@>AB@0=AB20, ?@>AB@0=AB20 ?@>F5AA>2 >?B8<870F88. AB5AB25==K9 >B1>@ A>740QB A;>6=K5 DC=:F8>=8@CNI85 <5E0=87<K =5 ?@82;5:0O ?@>F5AA0 4C<0=8O; M2>;NF8O =0E>48BAO 2=CB@8 ?@>AB@0=AB20 ?@>F5AA>2 >?B8<870F88, => 70 ?@545;0<8 ?@>AB@0=AB20 C<>2. -B>B 3830=BA:89 :@C3 2>7<>6=>AB59 8A:;NG05B 0=B@>?><>@D87< :0: 70:>==K9 A?>A>1 <KH;5=8O. 2: @54A:070=85 8 CAB@>9AB2>. (Prediction and design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ice, 1953.) "0: :0: 65 2>7<>6=>, GB> :><?LNB5@=K5 8=65=5@K <>3CB A>74020BL <8:@>AE5<K, :>B>@K5 =04Q6=> 2K?>;=ONB 2KG8A;5=8O? >B><C GB> ;N48-8=65=5@K =0@>G=> 8A?>;L7CNB B5 ?@>5:BK, :>B>@K5 >=8 <>3CB ?>=OBL. =B@>?><>@D87< 70AB02;O5B ;N459 25@8BL, GB> >=8 <>3CB 45;0BL ?@54A:070=8O, =5 8<5O =8:0:>9 4@C3>9 8=D>@<0F88, :@><5 :0: > A0<>< D0:B5 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8 (intelligence) G53>-B>  0=B@>?><>@D87< ?@>4>;605B 35=5@8@>20BL ?@54A:070=8O, =5 278@0O =8 =0 GB>, 2 B> 2@5<O :0: 20H <>73 02B><0B8G5A:8 AB028B A51O =0 <5AB> MB>9 A0<>9 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8. -B> <>65B 1KBL >4=8< 87 D0:B>@>2 2K7K20NI59 70<5H0B5;LAB2> 8AB>@88 , :>B>@0O ?@>8AE>48B =5 87 B@C4=>AB8  :0: B0:>2>3>, => 87 70304>G=>9 ;Q3:>AB8 >1@5B5=8O >H81>G=>9 25@K 2 B>, GB> =5:89 40==K9 48709=  A@01>B05B. ;O B>3>, GB>1K A45;0BL CB25@645=85 > B><, GB> <>AB 2K45@68B 25A 02B><>18;59 2 30 B>==, 3@0640=A:85 8=65=5@K 8<5NB 420 >@C68O: 2K1>@ 87=0G0;L=KE CA;>289 8 70?0A ?@>G=>AB8 4;O 157>?0A=>AB8. < =5B =5>1E>48<>AB8 ?@54A:07K20BL, <>65B ;8 2K45@60BL 25A 2 30 B>== ?@>872>;L=0O :>=AB@C:F8O, => B>;L:> ?@>5:B 40==>3> :>=:@5B=>3> <>AB0, >B=>A8B5;L=> :>B>@>3> >=8 45;0NB MB> 70O2;5=85.  E>BO MB> ?>:07K205B A ;CGH59 AB>@>=K 8=65=5@0, :>B>@K9 <>65B 2KG8A;8BL B>G=K9 25A, :>B>@K9 <>AB <>65B 2K45@60BL, B0:65 ?@85<;5<> 2KG8A;8BL, GB> <>AB 2K45@68B 02B><>18;8 =5 <5=55, G5< 2 30 B>==  E>BO 4;O B>3>, GB>1K 4>:070BL MB> @0A?;K2G0B>5 CB25@645=85 AB@>3>, <>65B ?>B@51>20BLAO 1>;LH0O G0ABL B>3> B5>@5B8G5A:>3> ?>=8<0=8O, :>B>@>5 2E>48B 2 B>G=>5 2KG8A;5=85. @0640=A:85 8=65=5@K ?@845@6820NBAO 2KA>:8E AB0=40@B>2 2 ?@54A:070=88 B>3>, GB> <>ABK 2K45@60B =03@C7:C. ;E8<8:8 ?@>H;>3> ?@845@6820;8AL 3>@074> 1>;55 =87:8E AB0=40@B>2 2 ?@54A:070=88 B>3>, GB> ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL E8<8G5A:8E @5035=B>2 B@0=AD>@<8@C5B A28=5F 2 7>;>B>. 0:>5 :>;8G5AB2> A28=F0 2 :0:>5 :>;8G5AB2> 7>;>B0? 0:>2 ?@8G8==K9 <5E0=87< MB>3> ?@>F5AA0? ?>;=5 ?>=OB=>, ?>G5<C 8AA;54>20B5;L-0;E8<8: E>B5; 7>;>B> 1>;LH5, G5< A28=5F, => ?>G5<C 40==0O ?>A;54>20B5;L=>ABL @5035=B>2 ?@52@0I05B A28=5F 2 7>;>B>, 0 =5 7>;>B> 2 A28=5F 8;8 A28=5F 2 2>4C? 0==85 8AA;54>20B5;8  ?>;030;8, GB> 8A:CAAB25==0O =59@>==0O A5BL 87 A;>Q2 ?>@>3>2KE CAB@>9AB2, >1CG5==0O ?>A@54AB2>< >1@0B=>3> @0A?@>AB@0=5=8O, 1C45B 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>9 (intelligent). A?>;L7>20==>5 ?@8 MB>< <KH;5=85, >1CA;>2;5==>5 @57C;LB0B>< (wishful thinking), 1;865 : 0;E8<88, G5< : 3@0640=A:>< AB@>8B5;LAB2C. 038O 2E>48B 2 A?8A>: G5;>25G5A:8E C=825@A0;89 >=0;L40 @0C=0 (Brown, 1991); =0C:0  =5B. K 8=AB8=:B82=> =5 ?>=8<05<, GB> 0;E8<8O =5 @01>B05B. K 8=AB8=:B82=> =5 @07;8G05< AB@>385 @0AAC645=8O 8 E>@>H55 @0AA:07K20=85 8AB>@89. K 8=AB8=:B82=> =5 70<5G05< >6840=85 ?>;>68B5;L=KE @57C;LB0B>2, 28AOI55 2 2>74CE5. '5;>25G5A:89 284 2>7=8: ?>A@54AB2>< 5AB5AB25==>3> >B1>@0, DC=:F8>=8@CNI53> ?>A@54AB2>< =5A;CG09=>3> A>E@0=5=8O A;CG09=KE <CB0F89. 48= 87 ?CB59 : 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>D5  :>340 :B>-B> =068<05B :=>?:C, 8<5O >H81>G=>5 ?@54AB02;5=85 > B><, GB> MB0 :=>?:0 45;05B  :>340  2>7=8:=5B ?>A@54AB2>< ?>4>1=>3> A@0I5=8O @01>B0NI8E 0;3>@8B<>2, A 8AA;54>20B5;5<, =5 8<5NI8< 3;C1>:>3> ?>=8<0=8O, :0: 2AO A8AB5<0 @01>B05B. 5B A><=5=8O, >=8 25@OB, GB>  1C45B 4@C65AB25==K<, 157 OA=>3> ?@54AB02;5=8O > B>G=>< ?@>F5AA5, 2>2;5GQ==>< 2 A>740=85 4@C65AB25==>3> ?>2545=8O, 8;8 :0:>3>-;81> 45B0;L=>3> ?>=8<0=8O B>3>, GB> >=8 8<5NB 2 284C ?>4 4@C65AB25==>ABLN. 5A<>B@O =0 B>, GB> @0==85 8AA;54>20B5;8  8<5;8 A8;L=> >H81>G=K5, @0A?;K2G0BK5 >6840=8O >1 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8 A2>8E ?@>3@0<<, <K <>65< ?@54AB028BL, GB> MB8< 8AA;54>20B5;O<  C40;>AL A:>=AB@C8@>20BL 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=CN ?@>3@0<<C, => >=8 8<5;8 A8;L=> >H81>G=K5 @0A?;K2G0BK5 >6840=8O >B=>A8B5;L=> 4@C65AB25==>AB8 A2>8E ?@>3@0<<. 5 7=0=85 B>3>, :0: A45;0BL 4@C65AB25==K9 , =5 A<5@B5;L=> A0<> ?> A515, 2 B>< A;CG05, 5A;8 2K 7=05B5, GB> 2K =5 7=05B5. <5==> >H81>G=0O 25@0 2 B>, GB>  1C45B 4@C65AB25==K<, >7=0G05B >G5284=K9 ?CBL : 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>D5. 3: 54>>F5=:0 A8;K 8=B5;;5:B0. (Underestimating the power of intelligence). K A:;>==K 2845BL 8=48284C0;L=K5 @07;8G8O 2<5AB> >1I5G5;>25G5A:8E :0G5AB2. >MB><C, :>340 :B>-B> 3>2>@8B A;>2> 8=B5;;5:B (intelligence), <K 4C<05< A:>@55 >1 -9=HB59=5, G5< > ;N4OE. =48284C0;L=K5 @07;8G8O 2 G5;>25G5A:>< 8=B5;;5:B5 8<5NB AB0=40@B=>5 >1>7=0G5=85, 8725AB=K5 :0: G-D0:B>@ (?55@<0=0 (Spearman's G-factor), MB> - A?>@=0O 8=B5@?@5B0F8O B2Q@4KE M:A?5@8<5=B0;L=KE D0:B>2 > B><, GB> @07;8G=K5 B5ABK 8=B5;;5:B0 2KA>:> :>@@5;8@CNB 4@C3 A 4@C3><, 0 B0:65 A @57C;LB0B0<8 2 @50;L=>< <8@5, B0:8<8, :0: AC<<0@=K9 4>E>4 70 687=L. (Jensen, 1999.) G-D0:B>@ (?55@<0=0 O2;O5BAO AB0B8AB8G5A:>9 01AB@0:F859 8=48284C0;L=KE @07;8G89 2 8=B5;;5:B5 <564C ;N4L<8, :>B>@K5, :0: 284, 3>@074> 1>;55 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=K, G5< OI5@8FK. G-D0:B>@ (?55@<0=0 2K2>48BAO 87 <8;;8<5B@>2KE @07;8G89 2 2KA>B5 A@548 ?@54AB028B5;59 2840 3830=B>2. 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"0:>20 A8;0 B2>@G5AB20. 8=6 (Vinge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'B>1K 4>AB8GL B0:>9 <0;>9 F5;8 2 ?@>AB@0=AB25 :>=D83C@0F89, =5>1E>48< <>I=K9 >?B8<870F8>==K9 ?@>F5AA. >=OB85 > ?@>F5AA5 >?B8<870F88 O2;O5BAO ?@54A:070B5;L=> ?>;57=K<, ?>A:>;L:C ;53G5 ?>=OBL F5;L ?@>F5AA0 >?B8<870F88, G5< 53> ?>H03>2CN 48=0<8:C. 1AC645=85 >@>;;K 2KH5 =5O2=> ?@54?>;0305B, GB> :>=AB@C:B>@ >@>;;K ?KB0;AO A>740BL 02B><>18;L, A@54AB2> B@0=A?>@B0. -B> ?@54?>;>65=85 A;54C5B A45;0BL O2=K<, => >=> =5 >H81>G=> 8 >=> >G5=L ?>;57=> 4;O ?>=8<0=8O >@>;;K. 4.2: 02545=85 =0 F5;L. (Aiming at the target.) ABL A>1;07= A?@>A8BL, GB>  1C45B E>B5BL, 701K20O > B><, GB> ?@>AB@0=AB2> C<>2-2>>1I5 3>@074> 1>;LH5, G5< <0;0O G5;>25G5A:0O B>G:0. !;54C5B A>?@>B82;OBLAO A>1;07=C @0A?@>AB@0=8BL :>;8G5AB25==K5 >3@0=8G5=8O =0 2A5 2>7<>6=K5 C<K. 0AA:07G8:8 8AB>@89 =0:@CG820NB A:07:8 >1 >B40;Q==>9 8 M:7>B8G=>9 75<;5, =07K205<>9 C4CI55, 3>2>@O, :0:8< 1C4CI55 4>;6=> 1KBL. =8 45;0NB ?@54A:070=8O. =8 3>2>@OB:  =0?04QB =0 ;N459 A ?><>ILN 0@<89 <0@H8@CNI8E @>1>B>2 8;8  87>1@5BQB ;5:0@AB2> >B @0:0. =8 =5 ?@54;030NB A;>6=KE >B=>H5=89 <564C 87=0G0;L=K<8 CA;>28O<8 8 @57C;LB0B0<8  B0: >=8 <>3;8 1K ?>B5@OBL 0C48B>@8N. > <K =C6405<AO 2 ?>=8<0=88 A>>B=>H5=89, GB>1K C?@02;OBL 1C4CI8<, =0?@02;OO 53> 2 >1;0ABL, ?@8OB=CN G5;>25G5AB2C. A;8 =5 @C;8BL, <K @8A:C5< ?>?0ABL BC40, :C40 =0A 70=5AQB. ;02=K9 2K7>2 A>AB>8B =5 2 B><, GB>1K ?@54A:070BL, GB>  0B0:C5B ;N459 A ?><>ILN 0@<89 @>1>B>2, 8;8, =0>1>@>B, 2254QB ;5:0@AB2> >B @0:0. 040G0 A>AB>8B 4065 =5 2 B><, GB>1K A45;0BL MB> ?@54A:070=85 4;O ?@>872>;L=>3> CAB@>9AB20 . !:>@55, 7040G0 A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB>1K 2K1@0BL 8 A>740BL B0:>9 ?@>F5AA >?B8<870F88, GL8 ?>78B82=K5 MDD5:BK <>3CB 1KBL B2Q@4> 4>:070=K. / CA8;5==> ?@87K20N A2>8E G8B0B5;59 =5 =0G8=0BL ?@84C<K20BL ?@8G8=K, ?>G5<C C=825@A0;L=K9 ?@>F5AA >?B8<870F88 4>;65= 1KBL 4@C65AB25==K<. AB5AB25==K9 >B1>@ =5 O2;O5BAO 4@C65AB25==K<, =8 =5=02848B 20A, =8 >AB02;O5B 20A 2 >4=>3>. -2>;NF8O =5 <>65B 1KBL B0: 0=B@>?><>@D878@>20=0, >=0 =5 @01>B05B, :0: 2K. =>385 18>;>38 4> 1960-E 3>4>2 >6840;8, GB> 5AB5AB25==K9 >B1>@ A>740AB ?>;=K9 =01>@ 2A5E E>@>H8E 25I59, 8 2K4C<K20;8 2A52>7<>6=K5 CA;>6=Q==K9 ?@8G8=K, ?>G5<C >= 4>;65= A45;0BL MB>. =8 1K;8 @07>G0@>20=K, ?>A:>;L:C 5AB5AB25==K9 >B1>@ A0< ?> A515 =5 =0G8=05B A> 7=0=8O, GB> >B =53> E>BOB ?@8OB=>3> G5;>25:C @57C;LB0B0, 8 70B5< =5 ?@84C<K205B A;>6=K5 ?CB8, GB>1K A>740BL ?@8OB=K5 @57C;LB0BK, 8A?>;L7CO 402;5=85 >B1>@0. "0:8< >1@07><, A>1KB8O 2 ?@8@>45 1K;8 @57C;LB0B0<8 A>25@H5==> 4@C38E ?> A2>8< ?@8G8=0< ?@>F5AA>2, G5< B5, GB> ?@8E>48;8 2 3>;>2C 18>;>30< 4> 1960-E 3>4>2, 8 ?>MB><C ?@54A:070=8O 8 @50;L=>ABL @0AE>48;8AL. KH;5=85, ?@82O70==>5 : F5;8 (wishful thinking), 4>102;O5B 45B0;8, >3@0=8G8205B ?@54A:070=8O 8 B0:8< >1@07>< >BO3>I05B =52>7<>6=>ABLN. 0: =0AGQB 8=65=5@0 3@0640=A:8E A>>@C65=89, :>B>@K9 =0455BAO, GB> <>AB =5 C?04QB? !;54C5B ;8 8=65=5@C 4>:07K20BL MB> B5<, GB> <>ABK >1KG=> =5 ?040NB? > ?@8@>40 A0<0 ?> A515 =5 ?@54;0305B @07C<=KE ?@8G8=, ?>G5<C <>ABK =5 4>;6=K ?040BL. !:>@55, MB> 8=65=5@ ?@5>4>;O5B BO65ABL =54>AB>25@=>AB8 (burden of improbability) ?>A@54AB2>< A?5F8D8G5A:>3> 2K1>@0, =0?@02;O5<>3> A?5F8D8G5A:8< ?>=8<0=85<. =65=5@ =0G8=05B A =0<5@5=8O A>740BL <>AB. 0B5< >= 8A?>;L7C5B AB@>3CN B5>@8N, GB>1K 2K1@0BL :>=AB@C:F8N <>AB0, :>B>@0O 1K 2K45@6820;0 02B><>18;8. 0B5< AB@>8B @50;L=K9 <>AB, GLO AB@C:BC@0 >B@0605B @0AAG8B0==K9 ?@>5:B.  2 @57C;LB0B5 @50;L=0O AB@C:BC@0 2K45@68205B 02B><>18;8. "0:8< >1@07>< 4>AB8305BAO 30@<>=8O ?@54A:070==KE ?>78B82=KE @57C;LB0B>2 8 @50;L=KE ?>78B82=KE @57C;LB0B>2. 5: @C65AB25==K9 . (Friendly AI). K;> 1K >G5=L 74>@>2>, 5A;8 1K G5;>25G5AB2> 7=0;>, :0: A>740BL <>I=K9 >?B8<870F8>==K9 ?@>F5AA A =5:8< G0AB=K< @57C;LB0B><. ;8, 3>2>@O 1>;55 >1I8<8 A;>20<8, 1K;> 1K 74>@>2>, 5A;8 1K <K 7=0;8, :0: A>740BL E>@>H89  (nice AI). ;O B>3>, GB>1K >?8A0BL >1;0ABL 7=0=8O, =5>1E>48<>3>, GB>1K 27OBLAO 70 MB>B 2K7>2, O ?@54;>68; B5@<8= @C65AB25==K9 . -B>B B5@<8= O >B=>HC =5 B>;L:> : A0<>9 <5B>48:5, => B0:65 8 : 5Q ?@>4C:BC  B> 5ABL : , A>740==><C A> A?5F8D8G5A:>9 <>B820F859. >340 O 8A?>;L7CN B5@<8= @C65AB25==K9 2 ;N1>< 87 MB8E 42CE A<KA;>2, O ?8HC 53> A 1>;LH>9 1C:2K, GB>1K 871530BL ?CB0=8FK A >1KG=K< A<KA;>< A;>20 4@C65AB25==K9. "8?8G=0O @50:F8O =0 MB> ;N459, :>B>@CN O G0AB> 2AB@5G0;, 70:;NG0;0AL 2 =5<54;5==>< 70O2;5=88, GB> @C65AB25==K9  =52>7<>65=, ?>B><C GB> ;N1>9 4>AB0B>G=> A8;L=K9  A<>65B <>48D8F8@>20BL A2>9 A>1AB25==K9 8AE>4=K9 :>4 B0:, GB>1K @07>@20BL ;N1K5 =0;>65==K5 =0 =53> >3@0=8G5=8O. 5@2CN ;>38G5A:CN =5A>>1@07=>ABL, :>B>@CN 2K BCB <>65B5 >B<5B8BL  MB> >H81>G=>ABL 830=ABA:>9 0B@CH:8. 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knowably) AB018;L=K< 2 A2>8E F5;OE 4065 ?>A;5 2K?>;=5=8O 1>;LH>3> :>;8G5AB20 A0<>8A?@02;5=89. -B0 AB0BLO =5 1C45B @07JOA=OBL ?@8254Q==CN 2KH5 845N 2 45B0;OE. ("0:65 A<. Schmidhuber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nice) 8 E>BOB 1KBL 5IQ ;CGH5. 0 =0AB>OI89 <><5=B 8<55BAO =5>3@0=8G5==>5 :>;8G5AB2> @0A?;K2G0B> C1548B5;L=KE 0@3C<5=B>2, ?>G5<C @C65AB25==K9  <>65B 1KBL =5 ?>4 A8;C G5;>25:C, 8 2AQ 65 3>@074> 25@>OB=55, GB> ?@>1;5<0 @07@5H8<0, => =8:B> =5 A>15@QBAO @5H8BL 5Q 2>2@5<O. > =5 A;54C5B A;8H:>< 1KAB@> A?8AK20BL ?@>1;5<C, >A>15==> CG8BK20O <0AHB01 AB02>:. 6: "5E=8G5A:0O =5C40G0 8 D8;>A>DA:0O =5C40G0. (Technical failure and philosophical failure.) >AB@>< (Bostrom, 2001) >?@545;O5B 3;>10;L=CN :0B0AB@>DC (existential catastrophe) :0: B0:CN, :>B>@0O 8AB@51;O5B 2>7=8:HCN =0 5<;5 @07C<=CN 687=L 8;8 =5>1@0B8<> ?>2@56405B G0ABL 5Q ?>B5=F80;0. 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B>G:8 7@5=8O B5>@88 @5H5=89 2K1>@ 2 ?>;L7C :><<C=87<0 ?@>8AE>48B 87 :><18=0F88 M<?8@8G5A:>9 25@K 8 F5==>AB=>3> AC645=8O. -<?8@8G5A:0O 25@0 A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> 22545=85 :><<C=87<0 ?@8254QB : >?@545;Q==><C @57C;LB0BC 8;8 :;0AAC @57C;LB0B>2: ;N48 AB0=CB AG0AB;8255, @01>B0BL <5=LH5 G0A>2 8 >1;040BL 1>;LH8< <0B5@80;L=K< 1>30BAB2><. -B>, 2 :>=5G=>< AGQB, M<?8@8G5A:>5 ?@54A:070=85: 4065 53> G0ABL > AG0ABL5 >B=>A8BAO : @50;L=K< A>AB>O=8O< <>730, E>BO 5Q B@C4=> 87<5@8BL. A;8 2K 2254QB5 :><<C=87<, MB> @57C;LB0B 1C45B 8;8 4>AB83=CB, 8;8 =5B. &5==>AB=>5 AC645=85 A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> MB>B @57C;LB0B C4>2;5B2>@O5B 8;8 ?@54?>GB8B5;5= 2 B5:CI8E >1AB>OB5;LAB20E. @8 4@C3>9 M<?8@8G5A:>9 25@5 > 459AB28B5;L=KE ?>A;54AB28OE :><<C=8AB8G5A:>9 A8AB5<K 2 @50;L=>< <8@5, @5H5=85 <>65B ?@5B5@?5BL A>>B25BAB2CNI85 87<5=5=8O. K <>65< >6840BL, GB> ?>4;8==K9 , A:CAAB25==K9 #=825@A0;L=K9 =B5;;5:B, 1C45B A?>A>15= 87<5=OBL A2>8 M<?8@8G5A:85 25@>20=8O. (;8 A2>N 25@>OB=>AB=CN <>45;L <8@0 8 B. 4.) A;8 1K :0:8<-B> >1@07>< '0@;L7 011046 (Charles Babbage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re-evaluate), - =0 1>;55 2KA>:>< C@>2=5 ?>=8<0=8O, - 8AE>4=> >H81>G=K9 ?@>F5AA, :>B>@K9 A>740; MB> @5H5=85. A;8 O 83@0N 2 H0E<0BK ?@>B82 1>;55 A8;L=>3> 83@>:0, O =5 <>3C ?@54A:070BL B>G=>, 345 <>9 >??>=5=B A45;05B E>4 ?@>B82 <5=O  5A;8 1K O <>3 ?@54A:070BL, O 1K, ?> =5>1E>48<>AB8, 1K; 1K B0: 65 A8;Q= 2 H0E<0B0E A0<. > O <>3C ?@54A:070BL :>=5G=K9 @57C;LB0B, 0 8<5==> 2K83@KH 4@C3>3> 83@>:0. / 7=0N >1;0ABL 2>7<>6=KE 1C4CI, :C40 <>9 >??>=5=B =0?@02;O5BAO, GB> ?>72>;O5B <=5 ?@54A:070BL :>=5F ?CB8, 4065 5A;8 O =5 <>3C 2845BL 4>@>38. >340 O =0E>6CAL 2 =081>;55 B2>@G5A:>< A>AB>O=88, MB> B>340, :>340 B@C4=55 2A53> ?@54A:070BL <>8 459AB28O 8 ;53G5 2A53> ?@54A:070BL ?>A;54AB28O <>8E 459AB289. (@54?>;030O, GB> 2K 7=05B5 8 ?>=8<05B5 <>8 F5;8.) A;8 O E>GC A45;0BL 83@>:0 2 H0E<0BK, ?@52>AE>4OI53> G5;>25:0, O 4>;65= 70?@>3@0<<8@>20BL ?>8A: 2K83@KH=KE E>4>2. =5 =5 A;54C5B ?@>3@0<<8@>20BL :>=:@5B=K5 H038, ?>B><C GB> 2 MB>< A;CG05 H0E<0B=K9 83@>: =5 1C45B G5<-;81> ;CGH5 <5=O. >340 O =0G8=0N ?>8A:, O ?> =5>1E>48<>AB8 65@B2CN A2>59 A?>A>1=>ABLN ?@54A:070BL B>G=K9 >B25B 70@0=55. 'B>1K ?>;CG8BL ?> =0AB>OI5<C E>@>H89 >B25B, 2K 4>;6=K ?>65@B2>20BL A2>59 A?>A>1=>ABLN ?@54A:070BL >B25B, => =5 A2>59 A?>A>1=>ABLN A:070BL, :0:>2 2>?@>A. "0:0O ?CB0=8F0, :0: =5?>A@54AB25==>5 ?@>3@0<<8@>20=85 :><<C=87<0, 25@>OB=>, =5 A>1;07=8B ?@>3@0<<8AB0 C=825@A0;L=>3> , :>B>@K9 3>2>@8B =0 O7K:5 B5>@88 @5H5=89. / 1K =0720; MB> D8;>A>DA:>9 >H81:>9, => >128=8; 1K 2 MB>< =54>AB0B>: B5E=8G5A:>3> 7=0=8O. 6.2: @8<5@ B5E=8G5A:>9 =5C40G8. (An example of technical failure.) <5AB> 70:>=>2, >3@0=8G820NI8E ?>2545=85 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=KE <0H8=, <K 4>;6=K 40BL 8< M<>F88, :>B>@K5 1C4CB @C:>2>48BL 8E >1CG5=85< ?>2545=8N. =8 4>;6=K E>B5BL, GB>1K <K 1K;8 AG0AB;82K 8 ?@>F25B0;8, - GB> 5ABL M<>F8O, :>B>@CN <K =07K205< ;N1>2LN. K <>65< A?@>5:B8@>20BL 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=K5 <0H8=K B0:, GB> 8E >A=>2=0O, 2@>64Q==0O M<>F8O 1C45B 157CA;>2=0O ;N1>2L :> 2A5< ;N4O<.  =0G0;5 <K <>65< A45;0BL >B=>A8B5;L=> ?@>ABK5 <0H8=K, :>B>@K5 =0CG0BAO @0A?>7=020BL 2K@065=8O AG0ABLO 8 =5AG0ABLO =0 G5;>25G5A:>< ;8F5, G5;>25G5A:85 3>;>A0 8 G5;>25G5A:89 O7K: 65AB>2. 0B5< <K <>65< 6QAB:> ?@82O70BL @57C;LB0B MB>3> >1CG5=8O 2 :0G5AB25 87=0G0;L=> ?@8ACI8E M<>F8>=0;L=KE F5==>AB59 1>;55 A;>6=K< 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=K< <0H8=0<, ?>78B82=> ?>4:@5?;O5<K<, :>340 <K AG0AB;82K, 8 =530B82=>  :>340 =5AG0AB;82K. 0H8=K <>3CB >1CG8BLAO 0;3>@8B<0< ?@81;878B5;L=>3> ?@54A:070=8O 1C4CI53>, :0:, =0?@8<5@, 8=25AB>@K 8A?>;L7CNB A59G0A >1CG0NI85AO <0H8=K, GB>1K ?@54A:070BL 1C4CI85 F5=K >1;830F89. "0:8< A?>A>1>< <K <>65< 70?@>3@0<<8@>20BL 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=K5 <0H8=K >1CG8BLAO 0;3>@8B<0< ?@54A:070=8O 1C4CI53> G5;>25G5A:>3> AG0ABLO, 8 8A?>;L7>20BL MB8 ?@54A:070=8O, :0: M<>F8>=0;L=K5 F5==>AB8. Bill Hibbard (2001), !25@E-8=B5;;5:BC0;L=K5 <0H8=K (Super-intelligent machines.) 4=064K 0<5@8:0=A:0O 0@<8O 70E>B5;0 8A?>;L7>20BL =59@>==CN A5BL 4;O 02B><0B8G5A:>3> >1=0@C65=8O 70:0<CD;8@>20==KE B0=:>2. AA;54>20B5;8 =0B@5=8@>20;8 =59@>==CN A5BL =0 50 D>B>3@0D8OE 70:0<CD;8@>20==KE B0=:>2 A@548 45@52L52, 8 =0 50 D>B> 45@52L52 157 B0=:>2. A?>;L7CN AB0=40@B=K5 <5B>48:8 :>=B@>;8@C5<>3> >1CG5=8O, 8AA;54>20B5;8 >1CG8;8 =59@>==CN A5BL 2725H820=8N, :>B>@>5 ?@028;L=> >?>7=020;> B@5=8@>2>G=K9 =01>@  >B25B 40 - 4;O 50 D>B>3@0D8O 70:0<CD;8@>20==KE B0=:>2, 8 >B25B =5B 4;O 50 D>B>3@0D89 ;5A0. -B> =5 30@0=B8@>20;>, =8 4065 >7=0G0;>, GB> =>2K5 >1@07FK 1C4CB :;0AA8D8F8@>20=K ?@028;L=>. 59@>==0O A5BL <>3;0 >1CG8BLAO AB0 >B45;L=K< A;CG0O<, :>B>@K5 <>3;8 =5 >1>1I0BLAO =8 =0 >4=C =>2CN 7040GC. @54CA<>B@8B5;L=K5 8AA;54>20B5;8 A45;0;8 2 =0G0;5 200 D>B>, 100 D>B> B0=:>2 8 100 45@52L52. =8 8A?>;L7>20;8 B>;L:> 50 87 :064>9 3@C??K 4;O B@5=8@>2>G=>3> =01>@0. AA;54>20B5;8 70?CAB8;8 2 =59@>==CN A5BL >AB02H85AO 100 D>B>, 8 157 40;L=59H59 B@5=8@>2:8 =59@>==0O A5BL @0A?>7=0;0 2A5 >AB02H85AO D>B>3@0D88 ?@028;L=>. #A?5E ?>4B25@48;AO! AA;54>20B5;8 =0?@028;8 70:>=G5==CN @01>BC 2 5=B03>=, >B:C40 5Q 2A:>@5 25@=C;8, 60;COAL, GB> 2 8E A>1AB25==>9 A5@88 B5AB>2 =59@>==0O A5BL 1K;0 =5 ;CGH5, G5< A;CG09, 2 >B1>@5 D>B>3@0D89. :070;>AL, GB> 2 =01>@5 40==KE 8AA;54>20B5;59 D>B>3@0D88 70:0<CD;8@>20==KE B0=:>2 1K;8 A45;0=K 2 >1;0G=K5 4=8, B>340 :0: D>B>3@0D88 G8AB>3> ;5A0 1K;8 A45;0=K 2 A>;=5G=K5 4=8. 59@>==0O A5BL >1CG8;0AL @07;8G0BL >1;0G=K5 8 A>;=5G=K5 4=8 2<5AB> B>3>, GB>1K =0CG8BLAO @07;8G0BL 70:0<CD;8@>20==K5 B0=:8 >B ?CAB>3> ;5A0. (A=>A:0 2) (A=>A:0 2) -B0 8AB>@8O, E>BO 8 8725AB=0O, 8 G0AB> F8B8@C5<0O, <>65B 1KBL 0?>:@8D8G5A:>9. / =5 =0HQ; A>>1I5=8O 87 ?5@2KE @C:. ;O >BGQB0 157 AAK;>: A<. Crochat 8 Franklin (2000) 8;8  HYPERLINK "http://neil.fraser.name/writing/tank/" http://neil.fraser.name/writing/tank/. H81:8 B0:>3> @>40 O2;ONBAO ?@54<5B>< 1>;LH8E @50;8AB8G5A:8E @0AA<>B@5=89 ?@8 A>740=88 8 B5AB8@>20=88 =59@>==KE A5B59. "5E=8G5A:89 ?@>20; 8<55B <5AB>, :>340 :>4 =5 45;05B B>, GB>, 2K 4C<05B5, >= 45;05B, E>BO >= G5B=> 2K?>;=O5B B>, =0 GB> 2K 53> 70?@>3@0<<8@>20;8. 4=8 8 B5 65 40==K5 <>3CB A>>B25BAB2>20BL @07=K< <>45;O<. >?CAB8<, GB> <K >1CG05< =59@>==CN A5BL @07;8G0BL C;K10NI85AO G5;>25G5A:85 ;8F0 8 >B;8G0BL 8E >B E<C@OI8EAO ;8F. C45B ;8 MB0 A5BL @0A?>7=020BL <0;5=L:CN :0@B8=:C A<5NI53>AO ;8F0 :0: B0:>9 65 0BB@0:B>@, :0: 8 A<5NI55AO G5;>25G5A:>5 ;8F>? A;8 , 6QAB:> D8:A8@>20==K9 =0 B0:>< :>45, >1@5BQB 2;0ABL  8 Hibbard (2001) 3>2>@8B > A25@E8=B5;;5:B5  =5 70:>=G8B ;8 30;0:B8:0 B5<, GB> 1C45B ?>:@KB0 <0;NA5=L:8<8 <>;5:C;O@=K<8 :0@B8=:0<8 C;K10NI8EAO ;8F? (A=>A:0 3) (A=>A:0 3) Bill Hibbard, ?>A;5 ?@>A<>B@0 G5@=>28:0 MB>9 AB0BL8, =0?8A0; >B25B, 4>:07K20NI89, GB> 0=0;>388 A ?@>1;5<>9 :;0AA8D8:0B>@0 B0=:>2 =5 ?@8<5=8<0 : ?>4:@5?;ONI5<C >1CG5=8N 2 F5;><. 3> :@8B8:0 <>65B 1KBL =0945=0 745AL:  HYPERLINK "http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~billh/g/AIRisk_Reply.html" http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~billh/g/AIRisk_Reply.html. >9 >B25B:  HYPERLINK "http://yudkowsky.net/AIRisk_Hibbard.html" http://yudkowsky.net/AIRisk_Hibbard.html. Hibbard B0:65 >B<5G05B, GB> ?@54;>65=85 Hibbard (2001) 70<5=5=> ?@54;>65=85< Hibbard (2004). >A;54=55 ?@54;0305B 42CEC@>2=52CN A8AB5<C, 2 :>B>@>9 2K@065=8O A>3;0A8O A> AB>@>=K ;N459 ?>4:@5?;ONB @0A?>7=020=85 AG0ABLO, 8 @0A?>7=0==>5 AG0ABL5 ?>4:@5?;O5B AB@0B5388 ?>2545=8O. -B0 D>@<0 ?@>20;0 >A>15==> >?0A=0, ?>B><C GB> A8AB5<0 2K3;O48B @01>B0NI59 2 >4=>< :>=B5:AB5, 8 ?@>20;8205BAO ?@8 A<5=5 :>=B5:AB0. !>740B5;8 >?@545;8B5;O B0=:>2 >1CG0;8 A2>N =59@>==CN A5BL 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 >=0 =5 =0G8=0;0 ?@028;L=> @0A?>7=020BL 40==K5, 70B5< ?@>25@8;8 A5BL =0 4>?>;=8B5;L=KE 40==KE (157 40;L=59H53> >1CG5=8O).  =5AG0ABLN, 40==K5 8 4;O >1CG5=8O, 8 4;O ?@>25@:8 A>45@60;8 ?@54?>;>65=85, :>B>@>5 >B=>A8;>AL :> 2A59 8=D>@<0F88, 8A?>;L7>20==>9 2 @07@01>B:5, => =5 : A8BC0F8O< @50;L=>3> <8@0, 345 =59@>==0O A5BL 1K;0 ?@8720=0 @01>B0BL.  8AB>@88 A >?@545;8B5;5< B0=:>2 MB> ?@54?>;>65=85 A>AB>O;> 2 B><, GB> B0=:8 D>B>3@0D8@CNBAO 2 >1;0G=K5 4=8. @54?>;>68<, <K AB@5<8<AO A>740BL CA8;820NI89AO . -B>B  1C45B 8<5BL D07C @0728B8O, :>340 ;N48-?@>3@0<<8ABK 1C4CB A8;L=55 53>  =5 B>;L:> 2 A<KA;5 D878G5A:>3> :>=B@>;O =04 M;5:B@>?8B0=85< , => 2 A<KA;5, GB> ;N48-?@>3@0<<8ABK C<=55, E8B@55 8 1>;55 B2>@G5A:85, G5< MB>B . K ?@54?>;0305<, GB> 2 B5G5=85 D07K @0728B8O ?@>3@0<<8ABK 1C4CB >1;040BL A?>A>1=>ABLN 87<5=OBL 8AE>4=K9 :>4  157 53> A>3;0A8O. >A;5 MB>3> <><5=B0 <K 4>;6=K ?>;030BLAO =0 CAB0=>2;5==CN 4> B>3> A8AB5<C F5;59, ?>B><C GB>, 5A;8  70@01>B05B 4>AB0B>G=> =5?@54A:07C5<K< >1@07><, B> >= A<>65B 0:B82=> A>?@>B82;OBLAO =0H8< ?>?KB:0< :>@@5:B8@>20BL 53>  8 5A;8  C<=55 G5;>25:0, B>, A:>@55 2A53>, >= ?>1548B. >?KB:8 :>=B@>;8@>20BL @0ABCI89  ?>A@54AB2>< B@5=8@>2:8 =59@>==>9 A5B8, GB>1K A>740BL 53> A8AB5<C F5;59 AB0;:820NBAO A ?@>1;5<>9 1>;LH>9 A<5=K :>=B5:AB0 ?@8 ?5@5E>45 >B AB0488 @0728B8O  : AB0488 ?>A;5 53> @0728B8O (postdevelopmental stage). 0 AB0488 @0728B8O,  <>65B 1KBL B>;L:> A?>A>15= A>74020BL @50:F88, ?>?040NI85 2 :0B53>@8N C;K10NI8EAO G5;>25G5A:8E ;8F, @5H0O ?@54>AB02;5==K5 ;N4L<8 7040G8, :0: 704C<0;8 53> A>740B5;8. A:>@5, :>340  AB0=5B A25@EG5;>25G5A:8 8=B5;;5:BC0;5= 8 A>740AB A2>N A>1AB25==CN =0=>B5E=>;>38G5A:CN 8=D@0AB@C:BC@C, >= AB0=5B A?>A>15= A>74020BL AB>;L 65 ?@8BO30B5;L=K5 4;O =53> AB8<C;K, ?>:@K20O 2AN 30;0:B8:C <0;5=L:8<8 C;K10NI8<8AO ;8F0<8. "0:8< >1@07><,  :065BAO @01>B0NI8< ?@028;L=> =0 AB0488 @07@01>B:8, => A>740QB :0B0AB@>D8G5A:85 @57C;LB0BK, :>340 >= AB0=>28BAO C<=55 ?@>3@0<<8AB>2(!) ABL A>1;07= ?>4C<0BL: > =025@=O:0  1C45B 7=0BL, GB> MB> =5 B>, GB> <K 8<55< 2 284C? > :>4 =5 40= , GB>1K >= 53> ?@>A<>B@5; 8 25@=C;, 5A;8 2KOA=8BAO, GB> >= @01>B05B =5?@028;L=>. >4 8 5ABL . >7<>6=>, ?@8;>682 4>AB0B>G=> CA8;89 8 ?>=8<0=8O, <K <>65< =0?8A0BL :>4, :>B>@K9 A;548B, GB>1K <K =5 =0?8A0;8 =5?@028;L=K9 :>4  ;535=40@=0O DWIM-8=AB@C:F8O, :>B>@0O A@548 ?@>3@0<<8AB>2 >7=0G05B 45;09-B>-GB>-O-8<5N-2-284C. (Do-What-I-Mean. (Raymond, 2003.)) > B@51CNBAO CA8;8O, GB>1K >?8A0BL <5E0=8:C @01>BK DWIM, 8 =8345 2 ?@54;>65=88 %8110@40 =5B C?><8=0=89 > A>740=88 , :>B>@K9 45;05B B>, GB> <K 8<55< 2 284C, 0 =5 B>, GB> <K 3>2>@8<. !>2@5<5==K5 G8?K =5 2K?>;=ONB DWIM =04 A2>8< :>4><; MB> =5 02B><0B8G5A:>5 A2>9AB2>.  5A;8 C 20A ?@>1;5<K A A0<8< DWIM, 2K ?>AB@0405B5 >B ?>A;54AB289. @54?>;>68<, =0?@8<5@, GB> DWIM 1K; >?@545;Q= B0:, GB>1K <0:A8<878@>20BL C4>2;5B2>@5=85 ?@>3@0<<8AB0 >B A2>53> :>40; :>340 MB>B :>4 70?CAB8BAO :0: A25@E8=B5;;5:B, >= <>65B ?5@5?8A0BL <>738 ?@>3@0<<8AB0, GB>1K >= 1K; <0:A8<0;L=> C4>2;5B2>@Q= MB8< :>4><. / =5 3>2>@N, GB> MB> =587156=>; O B>;L:> 3>2>@N, GB> 5;09-B>-GB>-O-8<5N-2-284C  MB> 1>;LH0O 8 =5 B@8280;L=0O B5E=8G5A:0O ?@>1;5<0 =0 ?CB8 : @C65AB25==><C . 7: "5<?K CA8;5=8O 8=B5;;5:B0. (Rates of intelligence increase.) ! B>G:8 7@5=8O 3;>10;L=KE @8A:>2, >4=> 87 =081>;55 :@8B8G5A:8E >1AB>OB5;LAB2 2 A2O78 A , MB> B>, GB>  <>65B CA8;8BL A2>9 8=B5;;5:B G@572KG09=> 1KAB@>. G5284=0O ?@8G8=0 ?>4>7@520BL B0:CN 2>7<>6=>ABL  MB> @5:C@A82=>5 A0<>-C;CGH5=85 (Good, 1965)  AB0=>28BAO C<=55, 2 B>< G8A;5 C<=55 2 >B=>H5=88 =0?8A0=8O 2=CB@5==59 :>3=8B82=>9 DC=:F88 , B0: GB>  <>65B ?5@5?8A0BL A2>N ACI5AB2CNICN :>3=8B82=CN DC=:F8N, GB>1K >=0 @01>B0;0 ;CGH5. -B> A45;05B  5IQ C<=55, 2 B>< G8A;5 C<=55 2 >B=>H5=88 7040G8 ?5@545;K20=8O A51O, B0: GB> >= A45;05B 5IQ 1>;LH5 C;CGH5=89. N48 ?> 1>;LH><C AGQBC =5 <>3CB C;CGH0BL A51O @5:C@A82=>.  >3@0=8G5==>< >1JQ<5 <K A51O C;CGH05<: <K CG8<AO, <K B@5=8@C5<AO, <K 70B0G8205< A2>8 =02K:8 8 7=0=8O.  =51>;LH>< >B=>H5=88 MB8 A0<>-C;CGH5=8O C;CGH0NB =0HC A?>A>1=>ABL C;CGH0BLAO. >2K5 >B:@KB8O <>3CB C25;8G8BL =0HC A?>A>1=>ABL 45;0BL 40;L=59H85 >B:@KB8O  2 MB>< A<KA;5 7=0=85 A0<> A51O ?8B05B. > 5ABL 1>;55 =86=89 C@>25=L, :>B>@>3> <K 4065 =5 :>A=C;8AL. K =5 ?5@5?8AK205< G5;>25G5A:89 <>73. >73 O2;O5BAO, 2 :>=5G=>< AGQB5, 8AB>G=8:>< >B:@KB89 (the source of discovery), 8 =0H8 <>738 A59G0A ?>GB8 B0:85 65, :0: >=8 1K;8 10 BKAOG ;5B =0704. >E>68< >1@07><, 5AB5AB25==K9 >B1>@ C;CGH05B >@30=87<K, => ?@>F5AA 5AB5AB25==>3> >B1>@0 =5 C;CGH05B A0< A51O  ?> 1>;LH><C AGQBC. 4=0 040?B0F8O <>65B >B:@KBL 4>@>3C : 4>?>;=8B5;L=K< 040?B0F8O<.  MB>< A<KA;5 040?B0F8O ?8B05B A0<0 A51O. > 4065 :>340 35=5B8G5A:89 >:50= (pool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prefrontal self-models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ood (1965) =0720; 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=K< 27@K2>< - ?@>8AE>48B 87 B>3>, GB> ?@>3@5AA 2 >1;0AB8  8<55B @5?CB0F8N >G5=L <54;5==>3>. 45AL ?>;57=> @0AA<>B@5BL A2>1>4=CN 8AB>@8G5A:CN 0=0;>38N >1 >4=>< =5>6840==>< >B:@KB88. (0;L=59H55 27OB> 3;02=K< >1@07>< 87 Rhodes, 1986.)  1933 3>4C ;>@4 -@=AB 575@D>@4 70O28;, GB> =8:B> =5 4>;65= >6840BL, GB> :>340-=81C4L C40ABAO 872;5GL M=5@38N 87 @0A?040 0B><0: N1>9, :B> 8A:0; 8AB>G=8: M=5@388 2 B@0=AD>@<0F88 0B><>2, 3>2>@8; 274>@.  B5 2@5<5=0 B@51>20;8AL 4=8 8 =545;8 @01>BK, GB>1K @0AI5?8BL =51>;LH>5 :>;8G5AB2> O45@. 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A;8 4@C65AB25==>ABL ?>B5@?8B =5C40GC,  <>65B @5H8BL =0?@028BLAO A ?>;=>9 A:>@>ABLN 2 AB>@>=C A0<>C;CGH5=8O  <5B0D>@8G5A:8 3>2>@O, >= AB0=5B <3=>25==> :@8B8G=K<. / A:;>=5= ?@54?>;030BL ?>B5=F80;L=> ?@>872>;L=> 1>;LH85 ?@K6:8 2 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8, ?>B><C GB> MB> (0) :>=A5@20B82=>5 ?@54?>;>65=85; (1) MB> >B25@305B ?@54;>65=8O ?>AB@>8BL  157 @50;L=>3> ?>=8<0=8O 53>; 8 (A) 1>;LH85 A:0G:8 ?>B5=F80;0 (large potential jumps) :06CBAO <=5 =081>;55 25@>OB=K<8 2 @50;L=>< <8@5. A;8 O >1=0@C6C =5:CN >1;0ABL 7=0=89, 2 :>B>@>9 :>=A5@20B82=>9 B>G:>9 7@5=8O ?> ?>2>4C ?5@A?5:B82 C?@02;5=8O @8A:0<8 ?@54?>;0305BAO <54;5==>5 C;CGH5=85 , B>340 O ?>B@51CN, GB>1K MB>B ?;0= =5 AB0; :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8<, 5A;8  70<54;8BAO =0 >:>;>-G5;>25G5A:>9 AB0488 =0 3>4K 8;8 4>;LH5. -B> =5 B0 >1;0ABL, >B=>A8B5;L=> :>B>@>9 1K <=5 E>B5;>AL ?@54;030BL C7:85 8=B5@20;K C25@5==>AB8. 8: 1>@C4>20=85. (Hardware.) 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interaction) <564C @C65AB25==K<  8 4@C38<8 B5E=>;>38O<8, GB> 4>102;O5B G0AB> ?@>?CA:05<K9 3;>10;L=K9 @8A: : 4@C38< B5E=>;>38O<. 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AE>4=K5 <0B5@80;K 4;O  C65 5ABL 25745. -B0 :>H:0 B0: 40;5:> 2KA:>G8;0 87 <5H:0, GB> >=0 C65 2 20H8E =0@CG=KE G0A0E, A>B>2>< B5;5D>=5 8 ?>AC4><>5G=>9 <0H8=5. -B> B>65 O2;O5BAO >A>15==K< 8 =5>1KG=K< D0:B>@><  :0: 3;>10;L=>3> @8A:0. K >B45;5=K >B @8A:>20==>3> ?@>F5AA0 =5 1>;LH8<8 2848<K<8 CAB0=>2:0<8, B0:8<8 :0: 87>B>?=K5 F5=B@8DC38 8;8 CA:>@8B5;8 G0AB8F, => B>;L:> =54>AB0B>G=K< 7=0=85<. A;8 8A?>;L7>20BL A;8H:>< 4@0<0B8G=CN <5B0D>@C, MB> ?>4>1=> B><C, :0: 5A;8 1K AC1:@8B8G5A:85 <0AAK >1>30IQ==>3> C@0=0 ?@82>48;8 1K 2 42865=85 <0H8=K 8 :>@01;8 ?> 2A5<C <8@C 4> B>3>, :0: 5> !F8;0@4 2?5@2K5 ?>4C<0; 1K > F5?=>9 @50:F88. 9: #3@>7K 8 ?5@A?5:B82K. 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K 2AQ 5IQ ?KB05<AO ?>=OBL, GB> ?5@2K< 2K720;> MDD5:B 4><8=>. 57C;LB0B A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> Homo Sapiens 42865BAO ?5@2K< 157 =028AH53> A7048 A>?5@=8:0. -DD5:B 4286CI53>AO ?5@2K< ?@54?>;0305B B5>@5B8G5A:8 ;>:0;L=CN AB@0B538N (7040GC, @50;87C5<CN, 2 ?@8=F8?5, 8A:;NG8B5;L=> <5AB=K<8 CA8;8O<8), =>B ?@8 MB>< 2K7K205B : 687=8 B5E=8G5A:89 2K7>2 G@572KG09=>9 B@C4=>AB8. 0< =C6=> ?@028;L=> A>740BL @C65AB25==K9  B>;L:> 2 >4=>< <5AB5 8 >48= @07, 0 =5 :064K9 @07 25745. > A>740BL 53> =C6=> ?@028;L=> A ?5@2>9 ?>?KB:8, 4> B>3>, :0: :B>-B> ?>AB@>8B  A 1>;55 =87:8<8 AB0=40@B0<8. / =5 <>3C ?@>8725AB8 B>G=KE 2KG8A;5=89 =0 >A=>20=88 B>G=> ?>4B25@64Q==>9 B5>@88, => <>Q <=5=85 A59G0A A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> @57:85 ?@K6:8 2 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8 2>7<>6=K, 25@>OB=K 8 O2;ONB A>1>9 4><8=8@CNICN 2>7<>6=>ABL. -B> =5 B0 >1;0ABL, 2 :>B>@>9 O E>B5; 1K 4020BL C7:85 8=B5@20;K C25@5==>AB8, 8 ?>MB><C AB@0B538O =5 4>;6=0 ?>B5@?5BL :0B0AB@>DC  B> 5ABL =5 >AB028BL =0A 2 A8BC0F88 EC4H59, G5< @0=LH5, - 5A;8 @57:89 ?@K6>: 2 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8 =5 ?@>87>94QB. > 3>@074> 1>;55 A5@LQ7=>9 ?@>1;5<>9 O2;ONBAO AB@0B5388, ?@54AB02;O5<K5 4;O <54;5==> @0ABCI53> , :>B>@K5 B5@?OB :0B0AB@>DC, 5A;8 745AL 5ABL MDD5:B 4286CI53>AO ?5@2K<. -B> 1>;55 A5@LQ7=0O ?@>1;5<0, ?>B><C GB>: - >;55 1KAB@> @0ABCI89  O2;O5BAO 1>;55 A;>6=>9 B5E=8G5A:>9 7040G59. - >4>1=> 02B><>18;N, 54CI5<C ?> <>ABC 4;O 3@C7>28:>2, , A?@>5:B8@>20==K9, GB>1K >AB020BLAO @C65AB25==K< 2 M:AB@5<0;L=> A;>6=KE CA;>28OE (?@54?>;>68B5;L=>) >AB0QBAO @C65AB25==K< 2 <5=55 A;>6=KE CA;>28OE. 1@0B=>5 =525@=>. - KAB@K5 A:0G:8 2 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8 :>=B@-8=BC8B82=K A B>G:8 7@5=8O >1KG=>9 A>F80;L=>9 687=8. 5B0D>@0 g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design space)  MB0 2>7<>6=>ABL =5 7028A8B >B G5;>25G5A:>3> @5H5=8O, @02=> :0: A:>@>ABL A25B0 8;8 3@028B0F8>==0O :>=AB0=B0. 11:  8 CA8;5=85 G5;>25G5A:>3> 8=B5;;5:B0. (AI versus human intelligence enhancement). / =5 =0E>6C 4>AB>25@=K<, GB> Homo sapiens 1C4CB ?@>4>;60BL ACI5AB2>20BL 2 =5>3@0=8G5==>< 1C4CI5<, BKAOG8 8;8 <8;;8>=K 8;8 <8;;80@4K ;5B, 157 B>3>, GB>1K 2>7=8: E>BO 1K >48= C<, :>B>@K9 1K ?@>@20; 25@E=89 ?@545; 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>AB8.  5A;8 B0:, B> ?@84QB 2@5<O, :>340 ;N48 2?5@2K5 2AB@5BOBAO A 2K7>2>< 1>;55 C<=>3>, G5< G5;>25:, 8=B5;;5:B0.  5A;8 <K 2K83@05< ?5@2K9 C@>25=L AE20B:8, B> G5;>25G5AB2> A<>65B 27K20BL : 1>;55 C<=><C, G5< G5;>25:, 8=B5;;5:BC 2 A;54CNI8E @0C=40E AE20B:8. >7<>6=>, <K A:>@55 2K15@5< 4@C3>9 ?CBL, G5< , 1>;55 C<=K9, G5< G5;>25:, - =0?@8<5@, 1C45< C;CGH0BL ;N459 2<5AB> MB>3>. 'B>1K @0AA<>B@5BL :@09=89 A;CG09, 4>?CAB8<, GB> :B>-B> 3>2>@8B: 5@A?5:B820  <5=O 15A?>:>8B. / 1K ?@54?>GQ;, GB>1K, 4> B>3>, :0: :0:>9-;81>  1K; A:>=AB@C8@>20=, >B45;L=K9 ;N48 1K;8 1K >BA:0=8@>20=K 2 :><?LNB5@K, =59@>= 70 =59@>=><, 8 70B5< CA>25@H5=AB2>20=K, <54;5==>, => =025@=O:0, ?>:0 >=8 =5 AB0=CB A25@E-C<=K<8; 8 MB> B0 >A=>20, =0 :>B>@>9 G5;>25G5AB2> 4>;6=> A@078BLAO A 2K7>2>< AC?5@8=B5;;5:B0. 45AL <K AB0;:8205<AO A 42C<O 2>?@>A0<8: >7<>65= ;8 MB>B AF5=0@89?  5A;8 40, B> 65;0B5;5= ;8 >=? ( 07C<=> 704020BL 2>?@>AK 8<5==> 2 B0:>9 ?>A;54>20B5;L=>AB8, ?> ?@8G8=0< @0F8>=0;L=>AB8: <K 4>;6=K 871530BL M<>F8>=0;L=>9 ?@82O7:8 : ?@82;5:0B5;L=K< 2>7<>6=>ABO<, :>B>@K5 =5 O2;ONBAO @50;L=K<8 2>7<>6=>ABO<8.) @54AB028<, GB> =5:89 G5;>25: A:0=8@>20= 2 :><?LNB5@, =59@>= 70 =59@>=><, :0: ?@54;0305B Moravec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messy) 18>;>38G5A:89 :><?LNB5@, :0:8< O2;O5BAO G5;>25G5A:89 <>73, <K 4>;6=K 8<5BL 3>@074> 1>;LH5 ?>;57=>9 :><?LNB5@=>9 A8;K, G5< 2>?;>I5=> 2 A0<>< 15A?>@O4>G=>< G5;>25G5A:>< <>735. 081>;55 25@>OB=K9 A?>A>1, :>B>@K9 1C45B A>740=, GB>1K A:0=8@>20BL <>73 =59@>= 70 =59@>=><  A 4>AB0B>G=K< @07@5H5=85<, GB>1K 70E20B8BL ;N1>9 :>3=8B82=> 206=K9 0A?5:B =59@>==>9 AB@C:BC@K  MB> @0728B0O <>;5:C;O@=0O =0=>B5E=>;>38O. (4) (A=>A:0 4) Albeit Merkle (1989) ?@54?>;0305B, GB> =5@52>;NF8>==>5 @0728B85 B5E=>;>389 AG8BK20=8O, B0:8E :0: M;5:B@>==0O <8:@>A:>?8O 8;8 >?B8G5A:85 A@57K (optical sectioning) <>65B 1KBL 4>AB0B>G=> 4;O 703@C7:8 F5;>3> <>730. >;5:C;O@=0O =0=>B5E=>;>38O, 2>7<>6=>, ?>72>;8B A>740BL =0AB>;L=K9 :><?LNB5@ A >1I59 2KG8A;8B5;L=>9 <>I=>ABLN, ?@52>AE>4OI59 AC<<0@=CN <>73>2CN <>IL 2A59 G5;>25G5A:>9 ?>?C;OF88. (Bostrom 1998; Moravec 1999; Merkle 8 Drexler 1996; Sandberg 1999.) >;55 B>3>, 5A;8 B5E=>;>38O ?>72>;8B =0< A:0=8@>20BL <>73 A 4>AB0B>G=>9 B>G=>ABLN, GB>1K 2K?>;=OBL MB>B A:0= 2 :0G5AB25 :>40, MB> >7=0G05B, GB> 70 =5A:>;L:> ;5B 4> B>3> MB0 B5E=>;>38O 1K;0 A?>A>1=0 A>740BL =525@>OB=> B>G=K5 :0@B8=K ?@>F5AA>2 2 =59@>==KE A5BOE, 8, ?@54?>;>68B5;L=>, 8AA;54>20B5;8 A45;0;8 2AQ >B =8E 7028AOI55, GB>1K ?>=OBL 8E. >;55 B>3>, GB>1K ?@>0?3@5948BL 703@C65==>5  B@0=AD>@<8@>20BL A:0= <>730, GB>1K CA8;8BL 8=B5;;5:B C<0 2=CB@8 =53>  <K >1O70B5;L=> 4>;6=K ?>=8<0BL 2> 2A5E 45B0;OE 2KA>:>C@>2=52K5 DC=:F88 <>730, 8 :0:>9 ?>;57=K9 2:;04 >=8 45;0NB 2 8=B5;;5:B. >;55 B>3>, ;N48 =5 A>740=K 4;O B>3>, GB>1K 8E C;CGH0;8, =8 2=5H=85 =59@>18>;>38, =8 ?>A@54AB2>< @5:C@A82=>3> A0<>C;CGH5=8O 87=CB@8. AB5AB25==K9 >B1>@ =5 A>740; G5;>25G5A:89 <>73 C4>1=K< 4;O ;N459-E0:5@>2. A5 A;>6=K5 <5E0=87<K 2 <>73C 040?B8@>20=K 4;O @01>BK 2 C7:8E ?0@0<5B@0E :>=AB@C:F88 <>730. >?CAB8<, 2K <>65B5 A45;0BL G5;>25:0 C<=55, =5 3>2>@O C65 > A25@E8=B5;;5:B5; >AB0=5BAO ;8 >= 2<5=O5<K< (sane)? '5;>25G5A:89 <>73 >G5=L ;53:> @0710;0=A8@>20BL; 4>AB0B>G=> 87<5=8BL 10;0=A =59@>B@0=A<8BB5@>2, GB>1K 70?CAB8BL H87>D@5=8N 8;8 4@C385 @0AAB@>9AB20.  Deacon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Abstract  ?>A;54=55 2@5<O 1K;8 ?@>0=0;878@>20=K <=>3>G8A;5==K5 AF5=0@88 C=8GB>65=8O 5<;8, 2:;NG0O @0A?04 <5B0AB018;L=>3> 20:CC<0 8 @07@CH5=85 ?;0=5BK, 2K7K205<>5 AB@0==>9 G0AB8F59 (strangelet) 8;8 <8:@>A:>?8G5A:>9 GQ@=>9 4K@>9. K E>B8< ?>:070BL, GB> <=>65AB2> ?@54K4CI8E >F5=>: 8E G0AB>BK 40NB =0< D0;LH82>5 GC2AB2> 157>?0A=>AB8: =5;L7O 2K2>48BL 70:;NG5=85, GB> B0:85 A>1KB8O @54:8, 87 B>3> D0:B0, GB> 5<;O ?@>68;0 =0AB>;L:> 4>;3>, ?>A:>;L:C =01;N40B5;8 =0E>4OBAO, ?> >?@545;5=8N, 2 B5E <5AB0E, :>B>@K5 1K;8 4>AB0B>G=> 257CG8<8, GB>1K 871560BL @07@CH5=8O. K 2K2>48< =>2CN 25@E=NN 3@0=8FC 2 1 =0 10*9 ;5B (99.9% c.l.  A 4>AB>25@=>ABLN) =0 G0AB>BC 2=5H=59 (exogenous) >:>=G0B5;L=>9 (terminal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nitiation) ?5@5E>40 2 1>;55 =87:>5 20:CC<=>5 A>AB>O=85, :>B>@>5 1C45B @0A?@>AB@0=OBLAO >B A2>53> 8AB>G=8:0 =0@C6C A> A:>@>ABLN A25B0, C=8GB>60O 8725AB=CN =0< 2A5;5==CN [2, 3, 4]. 2. $>@<8@>20=85 GQ@=>9 4K@K 8;8 3@028B0F8>==>9 A8=3C;O@=>AB8, :>B>@0O 70BO38205B >1KG=CN <0B5@8N, 8 2>7<>6=>, C=8GB>605B 5<;N. [2, 4]. 3. $>@<8@>20=85 AB018;L=>9 AB@0==>9 <0B5@88, :>B>@0O 70A0AK205B >1KG=CN <0B5@8N 8 ?@52@0I05B 5Q 2 AB@0==CN <0B5@8N, 25@>OB=>, C=8GB>60O 5<;N [2, 5]. @C385 AF5=0@88 :0B0AB@>D @0=68@CNBAO >B 15AA?>@=KE 4> 25AL<0 C<>7@8B5;L=KE: 4. #40@K <0AA82=KE 0AB5@>84>2, 1;87:89 27@K2 A25@E=>2>9 8/8;8 30<<0 2A?;5A:, B5>@5B8G5A:8 <>3CB AB5@8;87>20BL 5<;N. 5. ==838;OF8O 2@06451=>9 @0A>9 @>1>B>2, :>;>=878@CNI59 ?@>AB@0=AB2>.  >BGQB5, 2K?>;=5==>< 2 @C:E025=5 [2], 45;05BAO 2K2>4, GB> 5A;8 ?C=:BK 1-3 2>7<>6=K, >=8 A :>;>AA0;L=>9 25@>OB=>ABLN 1C4CB 70?CI5=K =5 RHIC, 0 5AB5AB25==> ?@>8AE>4OI8<8 2KA>:>M=5@35B8G5=K<8 0AB@>D878G5A:8<8 A>1KB8O<8, B0:8<8, :0: AB>;:=>25=8O :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59. A5 @8A:8 1-5, 25@>OB=>, 4>;6=K AG8B0BLAO 2=5H=8<8, B> 5ABL =5A2O70==K<8 A G5;>25G5A:>9 0:B82=>ABLN 8 =0H8< C@>2=5< B5E=8G5A:>3> @0728B8O. &5;L MB> AB0BL8  >F5=8BL 25@>OB=>ABL (likelihood) 70 548=8FC 2@5<5=8 2=5H=8E :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8E AF5=0@852 2@>451-5. >6=> ?>4C<0BL, GB> @07 687=L 745AL, =0 5<;5, 2K68;0 2 B5G5=85 ?@8<5@=> 4 830;5B, B0:85 :0B0AB@>D8G5A:85 A>1KB8O 4>;6=K 1KBL 8A:;NG8B5;L=> @54:8<8.  A>60;5=8N, MB>B 0@3C<5=B =5A>25@H5=5=, 8 A>740205<>5 8< GC2AB2> 157>?0A=>AB8  D0;LH82>. = =5 ?@8=8<05B 2> 2=8<0=85 MDD5:B 8718@0B5;L=>AB8 =01;N45=8O (observation selection effect) [6, 7], :>B>@K9 =5 ?>72>;O5B ;N1><C =01;N40B5;N =01;N40BL GB>-=81C4L 5IQ, :@><5 B>3>, GB> 53> 284 4>68; 4> <><5=B0, :>340 >=8 A45;0;8 =01;N45=85. 065 5A;8 1K G0AB>B0 :>A<8G5A:8E :0B0AB@>D 1K;0 1K >G5=L 25;8:0, <K ?>-?@56=5<C 4>;6=K >6840BL >1=0@C68BL A51O =0 ?;0=5B5, :>B>@0O 5IQ =5 C=8GB>65=0. ">B D0:B, GB> <K 2AQ 5IQ 682K, =5 <>65B 4065 8A:;NG8BL 38?>B57C, GB> 2 A@54=5< :>A<8G5A:>5 ?@>AB@0=AB2> 2>:@C3 AB5@8;87C5BAO @0A?04>< 20:CC<0, A:065<, :064K5 10000 ;5B, 8 GB> =0H0 A>1AB25==0O ?;0=5B0 ?@>AB> 1K;0 G@572KG09=> C40G;82>9 4> A8E ?>@. A;8 1K MB0 38?>B570 1K;0 25@=0, ?5@A?5:B82K 1C4CI53> 1K;8 1K C=K;K. K ?@54;0305< A?>A>1 2K25AB8 25@E=NN 3@0=8FC G0AB>BK :>A<8G5A:8E :0B0AB@>D, :>B>@0O =5?>425@65=0 B0:>9 A5;5:F88 =01;N40B5;59. K 4>:07K205<, GB> @0A?@545;5=85 2>7@0AB>2 ?;0=5B 8 72Q74 >3@0=8G8205B G0AB>BC <=>38E AF5=0@852 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>DK, 8 GB> AF5=0@88, :>B>@K5 2KE>4OB 70 ?@545;K MB>9 3@0=8FK (>A>15==> @0A?04 20:CC<0) 2 A2>N >G5@54L >3@0=8G5=K >B=>A8B5;L=> ?>74=8< 2@5<5=5< D>@<8@>20=8O 5<;8. 45O A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> 5A;8 1K :0B0AB@>DK 1K;8 >G5=L G0ABK, ?>GB8 2A5 @07C<=K5 F828;870F88 2>7=8:;8 1K 3>@074> @0=LH5, G5< =0H0. A?>;L7CO 8=D>@<0F8N > B5<?0E D>@<8@>20=8O ?;0=5B, <>6=> 2KG8A;8BL @0A?@545;5=85 40B @>645=89 @07C<=KE 284>2 ?@8 @07;8G=KE ?@54?>;>65=8OE > G0AB>B5 :>A<8G5A:8E F828;870F89. 1J548=5=85 MB>3> A 8=D>@<0F859 > =0H5< A>1AB25==>< 2@5<5==>< <5AB>?>;>65=88 ?>72>;O5B =0< 70:;NG8BL, GB> G0AB>B0 :>A<8G5A:>9 AB5@8;870F88 4;O >18B05<>9 ?;0=5BK =5 1>;LH5, G5< ?>@O4:0 >4=>3> @070 =0 8303>4. 8A.2: !<. 53> 2 >@838=0;L=>9 AB0BL5 ?> 04@5AC:  HYPERLINK "http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0512204" http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0512204 0 ;52>< 3@0D8:5 ?>:070=> @0A?@545;5=85 25@>OB=>AB59 =01;N405<>3> 2@5<5=8 D>@<8@>20=8O ?;0=5B, 2 ?@54?>;>65=88 @07=KE E0@0:B5@=KE ?@><56CB:>2 2@5<5=8 <564C :0B0AB@>D0<8: >B 15A:>=5G=>AB8 (70HB@8E>20=>) 4> 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 8 1 <;@4. ;5B A>>B25BAB25==> (A?@020 =0;52>). @020O G0ABL 3@0D8:0 ?>:07K205B 25@>OB=>ABL =01;N45=8O =5:>3> 2@5<5=8 D>@<8@>20=8O (1>;LH5 8;8 @02=> 9,1 <;@4. ;5B 4;O 5<;8) , B> 5ABL >1;0AB8 A?@020 >B ?C=:B8@=>9 ;8=88 =0 ;52>9 ?0=5;8. II. 5@E=OO 3@0=8F0 G0AB>BK :0B0AB@>D. (AN UPPER BOUND ON THE CATASTROPHE RATE.) @54?>;>68<, GB> ?;0=5B0 A;CG09=K< >1@07>< AB5@8;87C5BAO 8;8 C=8GB>605BAO A =5:>B>@>9 G0AB>B>9 1/T, :>B>@CN <K A59G0A >?@545;8<. -B> >7=0G05B, GB> 25@>OB=>ABL 2K6820=8O ?;0=5BK 2 B5G5=85 2@5<5=8 t ?0405B M:A?>=5=F80;L=>, :0: exp(- t/T) 081>;55 ?@O<>9 ?CBL 871560BL >H81:8 >B MDD5:B0 8718@0B5;L=>AB8 =01;N45=8O  MB> 8A?>;L7>20BL B>;L:> 8=D>@<0F8N >1 >1J5:B0E, GLQ C=8GB>65=85 =5 ?>2;8O;> 1K =0 687=L =0 5<;5. K 7=05<, GB> =8 >4=0 ?;0=5B0 2 !>;=5G=>9 A8AB5<5 >B 5@:C@8O 4> 5?BC=0 =5 ?@52@0B8;0AL 2 GQ@=CN 4K@C 8;8 A3CAB>: AB@0==>9 <0B5@88, 2 B5G5=85 ?>A;54=8E 4,6 3830;5B, ?>A:>;L:C 8E <0AAK 1K;8 1K ?>-?@56=5<C 70<5B=K ?> 8E 3@028B0F8>==><C 2;8O=8N =0 >@18BK 4@C38E ?;0=5B. -B> >7=0G05B, GB> 2@5<5==0O H:0;0 @07@CH5=8O 4>;6=0 1KBL A>>B25BAB25==> 1>;LH>9,  :@><5 :0: 2 A;CG0OE, :>340 8E C=8GB>65=85 >4=>7=0G=> A2O70==> A =0H8<, :0: ?> >1I59 ?@8G8=5, B0: 8 ?> ?@8G8=5 8E 27@K20, ?@82>4OI53> : @07;QBC G0AB8F AC4=>3> 4=O, 2@>45 GQ@=KE 4K@ 8;8 AB@0==KE G0AB8F, :>B>@K5 2 A2>N >G5@54L C=8GB>60B 5<;N. -B0 ;0759:0 2 MDD5:B5 8718@0B5;L=>AB8 =01;N45=8O AC605BAO, 5A;8 <K ?@8<5< 2> 2=8<0=85 M:7>?;0=5BK, :>B>@K5 <K =01;N40;8 G5@57 8E G0AB8G=K5 70B<5=8O 8E @>4=KE 72Q74 [8] 8 ?>B><C 7=05<, GB> >=8 =5 27>@20;8AL. '0AB8FK :>=F0 A25B0, :>B>@K5 >1AC640;8AL 2 ;8B5@0BC@5, A:>@55, 1C4CB 3@028B0F8>==> 70E20BK20BLAO 72Q740<8, 0 =5 ?;0=5B0<8, 8 ?> MB>9 ?@8G8=5 =01;N405<>5 87>18;85 >G5=L AB0@KE 72Q74 (t 1>;LH5 8;8 ?@81;878B5;L=> @02=> 10 3830;5B) (=0?@8<5@, [9]) 5IQ 1>;LH5 CB>G=8B =86=NN 3@0=8FC ". 48=AB25==K9 AF5=0@89, :>B>@K9 <>65B 2>A?>;L7>20BLAO >AB02H59AO ;0759:>9 A8AB5<0B8G5A:>9 >H81:8 MDD5:B0 =01;N45=8O (observer bias loophole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f(t) >18B05<KE ?;0=5B :0: DC=:F8O 2@5<5=8 A <><5=B0 >;LH>3> 7@K20 ?>:070= =0 @8A.1 (;520O AB>@>=0, 70B5=Q==>5 @0A?@545;5=85). -B0 >F5=:0 27OB0 87 [10], 8 >A=>20=0 =0 A8<C;OF8OE, 2:;NG0NI8E A>740=85 BO6Q;KE M;5<5=B>2, 27@K2K A25@E=>2KE 8 30<<0 2A?;5A:8. A;8 >1;0AB8 ?@>AB@0=AB20 AB5@8;87CNBAO 8;8 @07@CH0NBAO A;CG09=K< >1@07>< A G0AB>B>9 1/T, B> 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> A;CG09=K< >1@07>< 27OB0O ?@>AB@0=AB25==0O >1;0ABL >AB0=5BAO =5?>2@5645==>9, A>AB02;O5B exp(- t/T). -B> >7=0G05B, GB> @0A?@545;5=85 CA;>2=>9 25@>OB=>AB8 (conditional probability) f*(t) 4;O 2@5<5=8 D>@<8@>20=8O ?;0=5B t A B>G:8 7@5=8O =01;N40B5;O  MB> ?@>AB> 70B5=5==>5 @0A?@545;5=85 f(t) C<=>65==>5 =0 exp(- t/T) 8 >B<0AHB018@>20==>5 B0:8< >1@07><, GB>1K 4020BL 2 8=B53@0;5 548=8FC. => >B>1@065=> 4>?>;=8B5;L=K<8 :@82K<8 =0 @8A.1 A;520. (A=>A:0 1). > <5@5 B>3>, :0: <K C<5=LH05< 2@5<5==>9 ?0@0<5B@ (timescale) :0B0AB@>D T, ?8: @57C;LB0B8@CNI53> @0A?@545;5=8O (;52K9 3@0D8:) A428305BAO 2;52> 8 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 5<;O AD>@<8@>20;0AL B0: ?>74=>, :0: <K MB> =01;N405< (9,1 3830;5B ?>A;5 >;LH>3> 27@K20) 8;8 ?>765, ?0405B (?@020O G0ABL @8AC=:0). ***** !=>A:0 1: >:070B5;LAB2>: ?CABL f0(t0) >7=0G05B @0A?@545;5=85 25@>OB=>AB8 2 <><5=B 2@5<5=8 t0 ?>A;5 D>@<8@>20=8O ?;0=5BK, :>340 =01;N40B5;L 87<5@O5B t(p).  =0H5< A;CG05, t0=4.6 3830;5B. K >?@545;Q==> 7=05< >G5=L <0;> > DC=:F88 f0, =>, : AG0ABLN, >=0 2K?0405B 87 =0H8E 2KG8A;5=89. 0A?@545;5=85 CA;>2=>9 25@>OB=>AB8 4;O tp, 87>;8@>20==>9 (marginalized over) >B t0: f*p(tp) := integral (from 0 to  8 ) (f0(t0) x fp(tp) x exp(-(t0+tp)/T) dt0 := fp(tp) x exp(-tp/T) (1) =57028A8<> >B =58725AB=>3> @0A?@545;5=8O fo(to), ?>A:>;L:C exp (- (to+tp)/T) = exp (- (to/T) x exp (- (tp/T)), 8 ?>MB><C 25AL 8=B53@0; @0745;O5BAO =0 420 <=>68B5;O, >48= 87 :>B>@KE 7028A8B >B t0, 0 4@C3>9 >B tp. C=:B8@=K5 ;8=88 ?>:07K20NB, GB> <K <>65< 8A:;NG8BL 38?>B57K, GB> T < 2.5 3830;5B A 95% C25@5==>ABLN, 8 A>>B25BAB2CNI85 99% 8 99.9% 8=B5@20;K C25@5==>AB8 A>AB02;ONB T> 1.6 8 T> 1.1 830;5B A>>B25BAB25==>. 8A:8 4->9 :0B53>@88 C=8:0;L=K B5<, GB> C =0A 5ABL E>@>H85 ?@O<K5 87<5@5=8O G0AB>BK AB>;:=>25=89, 27@K2>2 AC?5@=>2KE 8 30<<0 2A?;5A:>2, :>B>@K5 =5 7028AOB >B MDD5:B>2 8718@0B5;L=>AB8 =01;N45=8O. > A8E ?>@ =0H 0=0;87 8A?>;L7>20; AB0B8AB8:C >18B05<KE ?;0=5B 87 [10], :>B>@0O 2:;NG0;0 2 A51O (folded in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ordi Miralda-Escude , >3@0=8G5=85 =0 20:CC<=K9 @0A?04 8<55B 4065 1>;55 A8;L=K9 E0@0:B5@, G5< =0H5 :>=A5@20B82=>5 ?@54?>;>65=85. 5@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 40==0O B>G:0 =5 O2;O5BAO <5AB>< 20:CC<=>3> @0A?040 2 <><5=B 2@5<5=8 t,  5ABL 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 2 ?@545;0E >1@0IQ==>3> =0704 A25B>2>3> :>=CA0 =5B F5=B@>2 ?C7K@59 :@8AB0;;870F88 (bubble nucleations), G59 4-E <5@=K9 >1JQ< ?@>AB@0=AB20-2@5<5=8 ?@>?>@F8>=0;5= 4->9 AB5?5=8 2@5<5=8, :0: 2 >B=>H5=88 ?@8@0I5=8O <0B5@88, B0: 8 87;CG5=8O. (for both matter-dominated and radiation-dominated expansion). "0:8< >1@07><, ?>AB>O==0O G0AB>B0 >1@07>20=8O O45@ :@8AB0;;870F88 2 548=8F5 >1JQ<0 >7=0G05B 25@>OB=>ABL 2K6820=8O exp ((- (t)/T)*4) (>1@0B=> ?@>?>@F8>=0;L=> M:A?>=5=B5 4->9 AB5?5=8 2@5<5=8) 4;O =5:>3> E0@0:B5@=> 2@5<5=8 @07@CH5=8O T. >2B>@5=85 =0H53> 0=0;870 A 70<5=>9 exp ((- (t)/T)) =0 exp ((- (t)/T)*4) ?@82>48B : CB>G=5=8N =0H53> >3@0=8G5=8O. KA:070==>5 =0<8 >3@0=8G5=85 A>>B25BAB2C5B :>=A5@20B82=><C ?@54?>;>65=8N, 345 T 7=0G8B5;L=> ?@52>AE>48B 2@5<O ACI5AB2>20=8O 2A5;5==>9 2 M?>EC 4><8=8@>20=8O BQ<=>9 <0B5@88, GB> 45;05B CE>4OI89 2 ?@>H;>5 A25B>2>9 :>=CA ;8=59=> ?@>?>@F8>=0;L=K< t. *** III. .'. K ?>:070;8, GB> 687=L =0 5<;5 >G5=L 2@O4 ;8 1C45B C=8GB>65=0 2=5H=59 :0B0AB@>D>9 2 1;8609H85 1 <;@4. ;5B. -B> G8A;5==>5 >3@0=8G5=85 ?>;CG05BAO 87 AF5=0@8O, =0 :>B>@K9 <K 8<55< =081>;55 A;01K5 >3@0=8G5=8O: @0A?04 20:CC<0, >3@0=8G5==K9 B>;L:> >B=>A8B5;L=> ?>74=8< D>@<8@>20=85< 5<;8. -B>B 2K2>4 ?5@5=>A8BAO B0: 65 8 =0 >3@0=8G5=8O =0 38?>B5B8G5A:85 0=B@>?>35==K5 :0B0AB@>DK, 2K720==K5 2KA>:>M=5@35B8G=K<8 D878G5A:8<8 M:A?5@8<5=B0<8 (@8A:8 1-3). -B> A;54C5B 87 B>3>, GB> G0AB>B=>ABL 2=5H=8E :0B0AB@>D, =0?@8<5@, ?@>8AE>4OI8E 87 AB>;:=>25=89 :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59, CAB0=02;8205B 25@E=NN 3@0=8FC =0 G0AB>BC A2>8E 0=B@>?>35==KE 0=0;>3>2.  A8;C MB>3> =0H @57C;LB0B 70:@K205B ;>38G5A:CN 1@5HL >H81:8 A5;5:B82=>AB8 =01;N45=8O 8 40QB 7025@5=8O, GB> @8A: 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>DK, 2K720==>9 >?KB0<8 =0 CA:>@8B5;OE, G@572KG09=> <0;, 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 A>1KB8O, M:2820;5=B=K5 B5<, GB> ?@>8AE>4OB 2 M:A?5@8<5=B0E, A;CG0NBAO G0I5 2 5AB5AB25==KE CA;>28OE.  8<5==>, @C:E025=A:89 >BGQB [2] ?@54?>;0305B, GB> 3;>10;L=K5 :0B0AB@>DK <>3CB ?@>8AE>48BL 3>@074> 1>;55 G5< 2 1000 @07 G0I5 2 5AB5AB25==KE CA;>28OE, G5< =0 CA:>@8B5;OE. @54?>;030O, GB> MB> B0:, =0H5 >3@0=8G5=85 2 1 <;@4. ;5B ?5@5E>48B 2 :>=A5@20B82=CN 25@E=NN 3@0=8FC 10*(-12) 3>4>2>3> @8A:0 >B CA:>@8B5;59, GB> >1=04Q6820NI5 <0;>. 4. ;03>40@=>AB8: 2B>@K 1;03>40@=K Adrian Kent, Jordi Miralda-Escude 8 Frank Zimmermann 70 >1=0@C65=85 1@5H59 2 ?5@2>9 25@A88 MB>9 AB0BL8, 02B>@0< [10] 70 ?>;L7>20=85 8E 40==K<8 8 Milan Circovic, Hunter Monroe, John Leslie, Rainer Plaga 8 Martin Rees 70 ?>;57=K5 :><<5=B0@88 8 48A:CAA88. !?0A81> Paul Davies, Charles Harper, Andrei Linde 8 $>=4C John Templeton Foundation 70 >@30=870F8N A5<8=0@0, =0 :>B>@>< MB> 8AA;54>20=85 1K;> =0G0B>. -B0 @01>B0 1K;0 ?>445@60=0 NASA grant NAG5-11099, NSF CAREER grant AST-0134999, 8 AB8?5=48O<8 >B David 8 Lucile Packard Foundation 8 Research Corporation. [1] M. Tegmark and N. Bostrom, Nature, 438, 754 (2005) [2] R. L. Jaffe, W. Busza, Sandweiss J, and F. Wilczek, Rev.Mod.Phys., 72, 1125 (2000) [3] P. Frampton, Phys. Rev. Lett., 37, 1378 (1976) [4] P. Hut and M. J. Rees 1983, How Stable Is Our Vac- uum?, Nature, 302, 508 P. Hut 1984, Nucl.Phys. A, 418, 301C [5] A. Dar, A. De Rujula, and U. Heinz, Phys.Lett. B, 470, 142 (1999) [6] B. Carter 1974, in IAU Symposium 63, ed. M. S. Longair (Reidel: Dordrecht) [7] N. Bostrom, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Ef- fects in Science and Philosophy (Routledge: New York, 2002) [8] F. Pont, astro-ph/0510846, 2005 [9] B. M. S Hansen et al., ApJ, 574, L155 (2002) [10] C. H. Lineweaver, Y. Fenner, and B. K. Gibson, Science, 203, 59 (2004) [11] J. Leslie, The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction (Routledge: London, 1996) [12] N. Bostrom, Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9, 1 (2002) [13] M. J. Rees, Our Final Hour: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankinds Future in This Century  On Earth and Beyond (Perseus: New York, 2003) [14] R. Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford Univ. Press: Oxford, 2004) 8: >AB@><. 0AAC645=85 > >=F5 !25B0 4;O =0G8=0NI8E. http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer1.html & 0AAC645=85 > >=F5 A25B0 4;O =0G8=0NI8E& ...A Primer on the Doomsday argument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randon Carter) >1=0@C68; ?@5645 =570<5G5==>5 A;54AB285 87 >4=>9 87 25@A89 0=B@>?=>3> ?@8=F8?0. 0@B5@ =5 >?C1;8:>20; A2>Q >B:@KB85, => 845O 1K;0 ?>4E20G5=0 D8;>A>D>< 6>=>< 5A;8 (John Leslie), :>B>@K9 1K; ?;>4>28BK< 02B>@0< =0 MBC B5<C 8 =0?8A0; <>=>3@0D8N >=5F <8@0 (The End of the World (Routledge, 1996).) 07=K5 25@A88 0AAC645=8O > :>=F5 A25B0 1K;8 =57028A8<> >1=0@C65=K 4@C38<8 02B>@0<8.  ?>A;54=85 3>4K 1K;> >?C1;8:>20=> >?@545;Q==>5 :>;8G5AB2> AB0B59, ?KB02H8EAO >?@>25@3=CBL MB>B 0@3C<5=B, 8 ?@8<5@=> @02=>5 :>;8G5AB2> AB0B59, >?@>25@30NI8E MB8 >?@>25@65=8O. >B A0<> 0AAC645=85 > :>=F5 A25B0. / >1JOA=N 53> 2 B@8 MB0?0. (03 1. @54AB028< A515 A5;5==CN, :>B>@0O A>AB>8B 87 100 87>;8@>20==KE 1>:A>2.  :064>< 1>:A5 >48= G5;>25:. 90 87 1>:A>2 @0A:@0H5=K A8=8< A=0@C68, 8 >AB02H85AO 10  :@0A=K<. 064>3> G5;>25:0 ?>?@>A8;8 2KA:070BL 4>304:C, =0E>48BAO ;8 >= 2 A8=5< 8;8 :@0A=>< 1>:A5. ( :064K9 87 =8E 7=05B 2AQ MB>.) 0;55, ?@54?>;>68<, 2K =0E>48B5AL 2 >4=>< 87 1>:A>2. 0:>3> F25B0 >=, ?> 20H5<C, 4>;65= 1KBL? >A:>;L:C 90% 87 2A5E ;N459 =0E>4OBAO 2 3>;C1KE 1>:A0E, 8 ?>A:>;L:C 2K =5 8<55B5 =8:0:>9 4@C3>9 7=0G8<>9 8=D>@<0F88, :065BAO, GB> 2K 4>;6=K 4C<0BL, GB> A 25@>OB=>ABLN 2 90% 2K =0E>48B5AL 2 3>;C1>< 1>:A5. >3>2>@8<AO =07K20BL 845N > B><, GB> 2K 4>;6=K @07<KH;OBL, :0: 5A;8 1K 2K 1K;8 A;CG09=K< M:75<?;O@>< (random sample) 87 =01>@0 2A5E =01;N40B5;59  ?@54?>;>65=85< > A>1AB25==>< @0A?>;>65=88 (self-sampling assumption). @54?>;>68<, GB> 2A5 ?@8=8<0NB ?@54?>;>65=85 > A>1AB25==>< @0A?>;>65=88 8 2A5 4>;6=K A45;0BL AB02:C =0 B>, =0E>4OBAO ;8 >=8 2 A8=8E 8;8 :@0A=KE 1>:A0E. ">340 90% 87 2A5E ;N459 2K83@0NB 8 10% ?@>83@0NB. @54AB028<, A 4@C3>9 AB>@>=K, GB> ?@54?>;>65=85 > A>1AB25==>< @0A?>;>65=88 >B25@3=CB>, 8 ;N48 ?>;030NB, GB> H0=AK =0E>48BAO 2 A8=59 :><=0B5 =8G5< =5 1>;LH5, B>340 >=8 A45;0NB AB02:C, 1@>A82 <>=5BC. ">340, 2 A@54=5<, 50% ;N459 2K83@0NB, 8 50% ?@>83@0NB. - "0: GB> @0F8>=0;L=>9 <>45;LN ?>2545=8O 1K;> 1K ?@8=OBL ?@54?>;>65=85 > A>1AB25==>< =0E>645=88, 2> 2AO:>< A;CG05, 2 40==>< A;CG05. (03 2. "5?5@L <K =5<=>3> <>48D8F8@C5< MB>B <KA;5==K9 M:A?5@8<5=B. # =0A ?>-?@56=5<C 5ABL 100 1>:A>2, => 2 MB>B @07 >=8 =5 2K:@0H5=K 2 A8=89 8;8 :@0A=K9. <5AB> MB>3> >=8 ?@>=C<5@>20=K >B 1 4> 100. ><5@0 =0?8A0=K A=0@C68. 0B5< 1@>A05BAO <>=5B:0 (<>65B 1KBL, >3><). A;8 2K?040NB >@;K, >48= G5;>25: A>740QBAO 2 :064>< 1>:A5. A;8 2K?040NB @5H:8, ;N48 A>740NBAO 2 1>:A0E A =><5@0<8 A 1 ?> 10. K >1=0@C68205B5 A51O 2 >4=>< 87 1>:A>2, 8 20< ?@54;0305BAO 4>3040BLAO, 8<55BAO ;8 2 1>:A0E 10 8;8 100 G5;>25:. >A:>;L:C MB> G8A;> >?@545;O5BAO 1@>A0=85< <>=5B:8, 8 ?>A:>;L:C 2K =5 2845;8, :0: <>=5B:0 2K?0;0, 8 2K =5 8<55B5 =8:0:>9 4@C3>9 7=0G8<>9 8=D>@<0F88, :065BAO, GB> 20< A;54C5B ?@54?>;030BL, GB> A 50% 25@>OB=>ABLN 2K?0;8 >@;K ( 8 2 A8;C MB>3> 8<55BAO 100 G5;>25:) >;55 B>3>, 2K <>65B5 8A?>;L7>20BL ?@54?>;>65=85 > A>1AB25==>< @0A?>;>65=88, GB>1K >?@545;8BL CA;>2=CN 25@>OB=>ABL (conditional probability) B>3>, GB> =0 20H5< 1>:A5 =0?8A0= =><5@ >B 1 4> 10, 2 7028A8<>AB8 >B B>3>, :0: 2K?0;0 <>=5B:0. 0?@8<5@, ?@8 CA;>288 >@;>2 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> =><5@ 20H53> 1>:A0 ;568B <564C 1 8 10 A>AB02;O5B 1/10, ?>A:>;L:C 2 =8E 1C45B =0E>48BLAO >4=0 45AOB0O ;N459. @8 CA;>288 @5H5: 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 20H =><5@ ;568B >B 1 4> 10 @02=0 1; 2 MB>< A;CG05 20< 8725AB=>, GB> 2A5 =0E>4OBAO 2 MB8E 1>:A0E. @54?>;>68<, GB> 2K >B:@K205B5 425@L, 8 >1=0@C68205B5, GB> 2K =0E>48B5AL 2 1>:A5 7. 0B5< 20A A=>20 A?@0H820NB, :0: 2K?0;0 <>=5B0? > B5?5@L 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 2K?0;0 @5H:0, 1>;LH5 50%. >A:>;L:C B>, GB> 2K =01;N405B5, 40QB 1>;LHCN 25@>OB=>ABL MB>9 38?>B575, G5< 38?>B575, GB> 2K?0;8 >@;K. 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"5>@8O MDD5:B>2 A5;5:B82=>AB8 =01;N45=8O  B5>@8O > B><, :0: :>@@5:B8@>20BL A8AB5<0B8G5A:85 >H81:8 (bias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"5:AB ?5@52>40:  HYPERLINK "http://www.proza.ru/texts/2007/05/20-267.html" http://www.proza.ru/texts/2007/05/20-267.html The Doomsday Argument is Alive and Kicking (c) Nick Bostrom Dept. of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific method London School of Economics; Houghton St.; WC2A AE; London; UK Email: n.bostrom@lse.ac.uk Homepage:  HYPERLINK "http://www.hedweb.com/nickb" http://www.hedweb.com/nickb [>;55 ?>74=OO 25@A8O MB>9 AB0BL8 2KE>48B 2 Mind. !=>A:8 >?CI5=K 2 HTML 25@A88.] @838=0; B5:AB0:  HYPERLINK "http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/alive.html" http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/alive.html 5@52>4: ;5:A59 0;5@L528G "C@G8=. avturchin --- mail.ru 07@5H5=> =5:><<5@G5A:>5 8A?>;L7>20=85 ?5@52>40 >@1 8 ;825@ (Korb and Oliver) 2 =5402=59 AB0BL5 2 MB>< 6C@=0;5 ?KB0NBAO >?@>25@3=CBL Doomsday Argument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argeting Truth (TT) Principle): 8 >48= 8=4C:B82=K9 <5B>4 =5 4>;65=  2> 2AO:>< A;CG05, 2 MB>< <8@5  C:07K20BL =0 ?@024C 2 <5=LH59 <5@5, G5< 1@>A0=85 <>=5BK. (Korb & Oliver, p. 404) DA, - CB25@640NB >=8, - =0@CH0NB MB>B @07C<=K9 ?@8=F8?.  ?>445@6:C A2>53> 70O2;5=8O >=8 ?@>AOB =0A @0AA<>B@5BL ?>?C;OF8N 2 1000 G5;>25: (B> 5ABL ?>?C;OF8N, :>B>@0O 2K<8@05B ?>A;5 1000 8=48284CC<>2) 8 @5B@>A?5:B82=> ?@8<5=8BL =0H5 0AAC645=85 : MB>9 ?>?C;OF88, :>340 >=0 1K;0 @07<5@>< 2 1,2,3 8 B0: 40;55. @54?>;030O, GB> 0AAC645=85 ?>4@07C<5205B 70:;NG5=85 > B><, GB> AC<<0@=0O ?>?C;OF8O >3@0=8G5=0 @07<5@><, 2 420 @070 ?@52>AE>4OI8< ;N1CN 7040==CN 2K1>@:C& ?>;CG05<, GB> 2 499 A;CG0OE 70:;NG5=8O, A45;0==K5 =0 >A=>25 0AAC645=8O > >=F5 !25B0, >:07K20NBAO ;>6=K<8, 8 2 501 A;CG05 >=8 25@=K5, GB> >7=0G05B =87:89 8AE>4 4;O 8=4C:B82=>9 AE5<K 70:;NG5=89. (p. 405) > 2 ?@54;0305<>< :>=B@?@8<5@5 : 0AAC645=8N > >=F5 A25B0 TT ?@8=F8? =5 =0@CH05BAO  501 25@=KE 8 499 =525@=KE 4>304>: >?@545;Q==> ;CGH5, G5< <>6=> 1K;> >6840BL >B A;CG09=>9 ?@>F54C@K, 2@>45 1@>A0=8O <>=5B:8. @8G8=0 B>3>, GB> @57C;LB0B B>;L:> =5<=>3> 1>;LH5 A;CG09=>3>  ?@>AB> 2 B><, GB> 2 ?@8254Q==>< ?@8<5@5 CG0AB=8:8 AB02OB =0 A0<CN AB@>3CN 38?>B57C, =0 :>B>@CN >=8 <>3;8 1K AB028BL ?@8 ?@>G8E @02=KE (0 8<5==>, =0 BC, GB> AC<<0@=0O ?>?C;OF8O @0745;5=0 =042>5 40==K< >1JQ<><) - MB> >7=0G05B, :>=5G=>, GB> 8E >68405<K9 2K83@KH <8=8<0;5=. 5 C4828B5;L=>, GB> 2 MB>< A;CG05 G5;>25:, :>B>@K9 45;05B AB02:C ?> DA, ;8HL =5=0<=>3> 1>;55 CA?5H5=, G5< B>B, :B> =5 45;05B MB>3>. A;8 1K AB02:0 1K;0 =5 =0 ?@54?>;>65=85, GB> AC<<0@=0O ?>?C;OF8O 45;8BAO =0 42>5 40==K< >1JQ<><, 0, A:065<, =0 B@8, - B> ?@58<CI5AB2> AB02OI53> ?> DA 1K;> 1K 7=0G8B5;L=> 1>;LH8<.  @0AAC640NI89 <>3 1K 1KBL 4065 5IQ 1>;55 C25@5= 2 B><, GB> AC<<0@=K9 >1JQ< =5 ?@52KH05B 40==K9 2 30 @07. K2>4: >7@065=85 1 =8 3>2>@8B > B><, GB> DA =0@CH05B "" ?@8=F8?, =8 ?>:07K205B, GB> DA 40QB ;8HL =57=0G8B5;L=K9 C;CGH5=85 H0=A>2 1KBL ?@02K<. >7@065=85 2B>@>5. 0: 2?5@2K5 1K;> 70<5G5=> D@0=FC7A:8< <0B5<0B8:>< Jean-Paul Delahaye (2 =5>?C1;8:>20==>< B5:AB5) >A=>2=0O D>@<0 DA, :065BAO, <>65B 1KBL ?@8<5=5=0 =5 B>;L:> : 2K6820=8N G5;>25G5A:>9 @0AK, => B0: 65 8 : ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 20H59 A>1AB25==>9 687=8. B>@>5 2>7@065=85 >@10 8 ;825@0 CE20BK205BAO 70 MBC 845N. A;8 2K ?@>=C<5@C5B5 <8=CBK 20H59 687=8, =0G8=0O A ?5@2>9, :>340 2K 7=0;8 > ?@8<5=8<>AB8 DA : 20H59 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8 8 4> ?>A;54=59 B0:>9 <8=CBK, B> B>340, A>3;0A=> DA, 2K 4>;6=K >6840BL A<5@B8 4> B>3>, :0: 2K 70:>=G8B5 G8B0BL MBC AB0BLN. (fn. 2, p. 405) 4=0:>, MB> 70O2;5=85 =5:>@@5:B=>. $>@<0 DA, ?@8<5=8<0O : 20H59 A>1AB25==>9 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8, =5 >7=0G05B, GB> 2K 4>;6=K C<5@5BL 4> B>3>, :0: 2K 7025@H8;8 GB5=85 MB>9 AB0BL8. DA 3>2>@8B, GB> 2 =5:>B>@KE A;CG0OE 2K <>65B5 @0AAC640BL B0:, :0: 5A;8 1K 2K 1K;8 A;CG09=K< ?@8<5@><, 2K45@=CBK< 87 >?@545;Q==>3> @5D5@5=B>3> :;0AA0. @8=8<0O 2> 2=8<0=85 8=D>@<0F8N, ?@54>AB02;5==CN MB8< A;CG09=K< ?@8<5@><, 2K 4>;6=K 87<5=8BL A2>8 ?@54AB02;5=8O 2 A>>B25BAB288 A B5>@5<>9 095A0. -B> <>65B A<5AB8BL 20HC >F5=:C 25@>OB=>AB8 2 ?>;L7C 38?>B57K, :>B>@0O 3>2>@8B, GB> 20H0 ?>78F8O 2 G5;>25G5A:>9 ?>?C;OF88 1C45B 4>2>;L=> B8?8G=>9 - A:065<, 2 A@54=8E 98 ?@>F5=B0E, 0 =5 2 ?5@2>< 8;8 ?>A;54=5< ?@>F5=B5 A@548 2A5E ;N459, :>B>@K5 :>340-;81> @>48;8AL. > :0: ?>4GQ@:8205B 6>= 5A;8, B0 25@>OB=>AB=0O >F5=:0, A :>B>@>9 2K 70:0=G8205B5 ?>A;5 A45;0==>9 :>@@5:F88, 7028A8B >B 20H59 0?@8>@=>9 >F5=:8, B> 5ABL 25@>OB=>AB=>9 >F5=:8, :>B>@CN 2K 8<5;8 4> B>3>, :0: ?@8=O;8 2> 2=8<0=85 DA.  2>?@>A5 2K6820=8O G5;>25G5A:>9 @0AK 20H0 0?@8>@=0O >F5=:0 <>65B 1KBL >1>A=>20=0 =0 20H8E >F5=:0E B>3>, GB> <K 1C45< 8AB@51;5=K O45@=>9 2>9=>9, 10:B5@8>;>38G5A:8< >@C685<, :0B0AB@>D>9 A 1C4CI8<8 A0<>@5?;8F8@CNI8<8AO =0=>@>1>B0<8, AB>;:=>25=85< A <5B5>@8B>< 8 B. 4.  A;CG05 20H59 A>1AB25==>9 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8, 2K <>3;8 1K CG5ABL B0:85 D0:B>@K, :0: A@54=OO G5;>25G5A:0O ?@>4>;68B5;L=>ABL 687=8, 20H5 A>AB>O=85 74>@>2LO, 8 ;N1>5 D878G5A:>5 A>AB>O=85 20H53> >:@C65=8O, :>B>@>5 <>65B ?@825AB8 : 20H59 :>=G8=5 4> B>3>, :0: 2K 70:>=G8B5 G8B0BL MBC AB0BLN. 0 >A=>25 B0:8E @0AAC645=89 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 2K C<@QB5 2 B5G5=85 1;8609H53> ?>;CG0A0, 4>;6=0 2>A?@8=8<0BLAO :0: :@09=5 <0;0O. > 5A;8 B0:, B> 4065 7=0G8B5;L=K9 A4283 25@>OB=>AB8 70 AGQB C<>70:;NG5=89 2 4CE5 DA =5 4>;65= ?@82>48BL 20A : 70:;NG5=8N, GB> 2K C<@QB5 4> B>3>, :0: 70:>=G8B5 G8B0BL AB0BLN. "0: GB>, 2>?@5:8 B><C, GB> >@1 8 ;825@ CB25@640NB, 8A?>;L7CNI89 DA =5 ?@84QB : 01AC@4=><C C<>70:;NG5=8N, GB> >=, A:>@55 2A53>, 8AG57=5B 2 1;8609H85 ?>;G0A0, 4065 5A;8 MB>B G5;>25: 1C45B ?>;030BL, GB> DA ?@8<5=8<> : 53> ;8G=>9 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8. %>BO MB>3> 4>AB0B>G=>, GB>1K >B1@>A8BL >7@065=85 20, 1>;55 DC=40<5=B0;L=K9 2>?@>A 745AL 2 B><, 2>7<>6=> ;8 2>>1I5 (8 5A;8 40, B> :0:) ?@8<5=OBL DA : 8=48284C0;L=>9 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8. / 4C<0N, <K C?CAB8< A;8H:>< <=>3>5, 5A;8 <K 4>?CAB8< 4065 =51>;LH>9 A4283 25@>OB=>AB8 2 MB>< A;CG05. # <5=O 5ABL 425 ?@8G8=K 4;O CB25@645=8O MB>3> (:>B>@K5 O B>;L:> >G5@GC 745AL): >-?5@2KE, ?@8<5=5=85 >@1>< 8 ;825@>< DA : 8=48284C0;L=>9 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8 ?@54?>;0305B A?5F8D8G5A:>5 @5H5=85 B>3>, GB> >1KG=> =07K205BAO ?@>1;5<>9 @5D5@5=B=KE :;0AA>2. @0B:> 3>2>@O, MB> 2>?@>A > B><, ?@54AB028B5;5< :0:>3> :;0AA0 >1J5:B>2 2K A51O AG8B05B5? -B> :;0AA 2A5E >A>7=0NI8E ACI5AB2? ;8 2A5E ACI5AB2, :>B>@K5 8<5NB 845N > A2>Q< ?>@O4:>2>< =><5@5 @>645=8O (birth rank)? ;8 2A5E ACI5AB2, :>B>@K5 2 459AB28B5;L=>AB8 7=0NB DA? > <>5<C <=5=8N, ?@>1;5<0 @5D5@5=B=KE :;0AA>2 4> A8E ?>@ =5 @5H5=0, 8 MB>  >A=>2=0O ?@>1;5<0, AB>OI0O ?5@54 B5<, :B> 3>2>@8B > DA. >7@065=85 >@10 8 ;825@0 ?@54?>;0305B, GB> ?@>1;5<0 @5D5@5=B=KE :;0AA>2 @5H5=0 2 ?>;L7C ?>A;54=59 0;LB5@=0B82K: GB> @5D5@5=B=K9 :;0AA A>AB>8B 8A:;NG8B5;L=> 87 B5E ACI5AB2, :>B>@K5 2 :C@A5 > DA. -B>, 25@>OB=>, =5 A0<>5 C1548B5;L=>5 @5H5=85. B>@0O ?@8G8=0, ?> :>B>@>9 AB>@>==8: DA =5 4>;65= 4>25@OBL A4283C 25@>OB=>AB8 2 ?@8254Q==>< 2KH5 ?@8<5@5, A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> B@51>20=85 >BACBAB28O 2=5H=53> =01;N40B5;O (no-outsider requirement) =5 2K?>;=5=>. !8BC0F8O A B@51>20=85< >1 >BACBAB288 2=5H=53> =01;N40B5;O O2;O5BAO 25AL<0 =5?@>AB>9, => 5Q AB>8B >1JOA=8BL, ?>B><C GB> MB> 8=B5@5A=> A0<> ?> A515. 0AA<>B@8< A?5@20 87=0G0;L=>5 ?@8<5=5=85 DA (0 8<5==>, : 2K6820=8N 2A53> G5;>25G5A:>3> @>40). @54?>;>68<, 2K C25@5=K, GB> ACI5AB2C5B 2=575<=0O @07C<=0O 687=L. @54?>;>68<, GB> 2K 7=05B5, GB> ACI5AB2C5B <8;;8>= <0;KE F828;870F89, :0640O 87 :>B>@KE A>45@68B 200 <8;;80@4>2 ACI5AB2, 8 <8;;8>= 1>;LH8E F828;870F89, :0640O 87 :>B>@KE 8<55B 200 B@8;;8>=>2 ACI5AB2.  ?@54?>;>68<, 2K 7=05B5, GB> G5;>25G5A:89 284  MB> >4=0 87 MB8E F828;870F89, => 2K =5 7=05B5, 1>;LH0O 8;8 <0;0O. 'B>1K 2KG8A;8BL 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 3815;L =0AB0=5B A:>@> (B> 5ABL GB> G5;>25G5A:89 @>4  <0;0O F828;870F8O), =0< A;54C5B 2K?>;=8BL B@8 H030: (03 1. F5=8< M<?8@8G5A:CN 0?@8>@=CN 25@>OB=>ABL Pr(small), B> 5ABL 25@>OB=>ABL B>3>, GB> 18>;>38G5A:>5 >@C685 ?>:>=G8B A =0H8< 284>< 4> B>3>, :0: >= AB0=5B 1>;LH8<.  MB>< A;CG05 2K =5 ?@8=8<05B5 2 @0AG5B =8:0:CN D>@<C DA 8 @0AAC645=89, >A=>20==KE =0 0=B@>?=>< ?@8=F8?5. (03 2. 0B5< ?@8<5< 2 @0AG5B B>, GB> 1>;LH8=AB2> ;N459 >1=0@C6820NB A51O 2 1>;LH8E F828;870F8OE. CBL   ?@54?>;>65=85 > B><, GB> O -G5;>25: 8 >?@545;8< =>2CN 25@>OB=>AB=CN DC=:F8N Pr*( . ) = Pr( . | H), ?>;CG05<CN ?>4 CA;>285< H. > B5>@5<5 095A0: Pr*(small)=pr(small\H) = (pr(H\small) x pr(small))/pr(H) 0@B8=:0 A D>@<C;>9 ?> 04@5AC:  HYPERLINK "http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image45.gif" http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image45.gif (>4>1=>5 65 2K@065=85 ?>;CG0BAO 8 4;O =5-<0;KE F828;870F89.) ?@54?>;030O, GB> 2K <>65B5 AG8B0BL A51O A;CG09=K< M:75<?;O@>< 87 G8A;0 2A5E ;N459, <K ?>;CG05<: Pr(H\small) = (200 <8;;8@04>2)/((200 <;@4 + 200 B@;=)x 1 <8;;8>=)  HYPERLINK "http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image46.gif" http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image46.gif  Pr(H\ - small) = (200 B@8;;8>=>2)/((200 <;@4 + 200 B@;=)x 1 <8;;8>=)  HYPERLINK "http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image47.gif" http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image47.gif (A;8 <K ?>AG8B05< P*(Small), <K >1=0@C68<, GB> >=0 >G5=L <0;0 4;O ;N1>9 @07C<=>9 87=0G0;L=>9 25@>OB=>AB8. @C38<8 A;>20<8, =0 MB>9 AB0488 2KG8A;5=89, 45;> 2K3;O48B B0:, :0: 5A;8 1K G5;>25G5A:89 284 1K; 1K A:>@55 2A53> 4>;3>682CI8<. (03 3. B5?5@L <K ?@8<5< 2 @0AG5B DA. CABL   ?@54?>;>65=85 > B><, GB> 2K >1=0@C68205B5 A51O @0=LH5, B> 5ABL 2K A@548 ?5@2KE 200 <8;;80@4>2 2 A2>59 F828;870F88. @8 CA;>288 MB>3> A>1KB8O, <K ?>;CG05< ?>AB5@8>@=CN 25@>OB=>AB=CN DC=:F8N Pr**( . ) = Pr*( . | E). ">340 Pr**(small)=pr*(small\E) = (pr*(E\small) x pr*(small))/pr*(E)  HYPERLINK "http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image48.gif" http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image48.gif B<5BLB5, GB> Pr*(E | Small) = 1 8 Pr*(E | Small) = 1/1000. >4AB02;OO 2 2K@065=8O 2KH5, ;53:> C1548BLAO, GB>: Pr**(small) Pr(small) ------------- = ---------------- Pr**(- small) Pr(-small)  HYPERLINK "http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image49.gif" http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/ali/Image49.gif "0:8< >1@07><, <K 2848<, GB> <K 25@=C;8AL : M<?8@8G5A:8< >F5=:0< 25@>OB=>AB8, A :>B>@KE <K =0G0;8. DA ( 2 H035 3) A;C68B B>;L:> 4;O B>3>, GB>1K >B<5=8BL MDD5:B, :>B>@K9 <K ?@8=O;8 2> 2=8<0=85 2 H035 2, 0 8<5==>, GB> 2K A 1>;LH5 25@>OB=>ABLN >:07K205B5AL ?@54AB028B5;O<8 G5;>25G5A:>9 F828;870F88, ?@8 CA;>288, GB> G5;>25G5A:0O F828;870F8O  >4=0 87 1>;LH8E, 0 =5 >4=0 87 <0;KE F828;870F89. -B> ?>:07K205B, GB> 5A;8 <K ?@54?>;0305<, GB> ACI5AB2CNB 1>;LH85 8 <0;K5 2=575<=K5 F828;870F88 (B>G=K5 G8A;0 2 2KH5?@8254Q==KE ?@8<5@0E 7=0G5=8O =5 8<5NB), B> B>340 ?@028;L=K 25@>OB=>AB8  MB> B5, :>B>@K5 40=K =082=>9 ?@5420@8B5;L=>9 M<?8@8G5A:>9 >F5=:>9. ">;L:> 5A;8 =5B 2=5H=8E (F828;870F89), B> DA @01>B05B B0:, :0: MB> 704C<K20;>AL. >72@0I0OAL : A;CG0N, :>340 2K ?@8<5=O5B5 DA : 20H59 A>1AB25==>9 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8, <K 2848<, GB> 2 MB>< A;CG05 B@51>20=85 >1 >BACBAB288 2=5H=8E AC1J5:B>2 =5 2K?>;=O5BAO.  459AB28B5;L=>, 5A;8 2K @0AA<>B@8B5 ?5@8>4 A2>59 687=8, 2 B5G5=85 :>B>@>3> 2K 7=0;8 > DA, 8 2K @07>1LQB5 MB>B ?5@8>4 =0 2@5<5==K5 >B@57:8 (>A>7=0205<K5 <><5=BK), B> B>340 2K <>65B5 70:;NG8BL, GB> 5A;8 2K ?@>682QB5 4>;3>, B> B>340 40==K9 <><5=B 1C45B O2;OBLAO 8A:;NG8B5;L=> @0==8< 2@5<5==K< D@03<5=B>< 87 MB8E 2@5<5==KE D@03<5=B>2. -B> <>65B 20A A:;>=8BL : <KA;8, GB> 2K, A:>@55 2A53>, C<@QB5 2A:>@5 (5A;8 83=>@8@>20BL B@C4=>AB8, C:070==K9 2KH5). > 4065 5A;8 DA ?@8<5=8< 745AL, MB> =5?@028;L=K9 2K2>4.  MB>< A;CG05 2K 7=05B5, GB> 5ABL <=>3> 2=5H=8E AC1J5:B>2. 45AL 2=5H=8<8 AC1J5:B0<8 1C4CB 2@5<5==K5 >B@57:8 4@C38E ;N459. >4>1=> B><C, :0: 7=0=85 > B><, GB> 5ABL 1>;LH85 8 <0;K5 F828;870F88, 0==C;8@C5B 8AE>4=K9 DA, B0: 8 2 MB>< A;CG05 7=0=85 > B><, GB> 5ABL 4@C385 :>@>B:>-682CI85 8 4>;3>-682CI85 ;N48 0==C;8@C5B 25@>OB=>ABL =5<8=C5<>9 3815;8. ">B D0:B, GB> =K=5H=89 <><5=B A>7=0=8O ?@8=04;568B 20<, 4>;65= >7=0G0BL, GB> 2K - B>B 8=48284, :>B>@K5 A:>@55 1C45B 8<5BL <=>3> <><5=B>2 >A>7=0=8O, G5< <0;>, B> 5ABL 2K 1C45B5 4>;3>682CI8< G5;>25:><.  <>65B 1KBL ?>:070=> (:0: 2KH5), GB> MB> C@02=>25A8B B>B D0:B, GB> =K=5H=89 <><5=B >A>7=0=8O O2;O5BAO M:AB@0>@48=0@=> @0==8< A@548 2A5E 20H8E <><5=B>2 >A>7=0=8O, 2 :>B>@KE 2 1C45B5 4>;3>682CI8<8. K2>4: >7@065=85 20 >H81>G=> 2 B><, GB> =5 ?@8=8<05B 2 @0AG5B 0?@8>@=K5 25@>OB=>AB8. =8 O2;ONBAO :@09=5 <0;K<8 4;O 38?>B57K, GB> 2K C<@QB5 2 1;8609H85 30 <8=CB. "0:8< >1@07><, 2>?@5:8 B><C, GB> 70O2;ONB >@1 8 ;825@, 4065 5A;8 AB>@>==8: DA ?>;0305B, GB> DA ?@8<5=8< 2 MB>< A;CG05, >= =5 4>;65= ?@54A:07K20BL, GB> 2K C<@QB5 2 1;8609H85 30 <8=CB. 4=0:>, AB>@>==8: DA =5 4>;65= ?>;030BL, GB> DA ?@8<5=8< 2 MB>< A;CG05, ?> 42C< ?@8G8=0<. >-?5@2KE, ?>B><C GB> >= ?@54?>;0305B 4>:07C5<> 15AA?>@=>5 @5H5=85 ?@>1;5<K @5D5@5=B=KE :;0AA>2. >-2B>@KE, 4065 5A;8 <K ?@8<5<, GB> B>;L:> B5 ACI5AB20, :>B>@K5 7=0NB > DA, 4>;6=K 1KBL 2 @5D5@5=B=>< :;0AA5, 8 5A;8 4>72>;5=> ?@8<5=OBL DA : 2@5<5==K< A53<5=B0< =01;N40B5;59, 2K2>4 2AQ @02=> =5 1C45B 25@5=; ?>B><C GB> B@51>20=85 >BACBAB28O 2=5H=8E AC1J5:B>2 =5 CGB5=>. >7@065=85 B@5BL5. "@5BL5 2>7@065=85 =0G8=05BAO A 70O2;5=8O, GB> (2 @0<:0E 09A>2>9 ;>38:8) 2K1>@:0 2 >48= M;5<5=B A;8H:>< <0;0, GB>1K ?@>8725AB8 7=0G8B5;L=K5 87<5=5=8O 2 GL8E-B> @0F8>=0;L=KE C15645=8OE. >A=>2=0O 845O& 25AL<0 ?@>AB0: 2K1>@:0 @07<5@>< 2 548=8FC :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8 <0;0. "> 5ABL, :0:>2> 1K A2845B5;LAB2> 87 MB>9 2K1>@:8 =5 1K;>, 0?@8>@=>5 @0A?@545;5=85 @07<5@>2 ?>?C;OF88 1C45B 4><8=8@>20BL 2 >:>=G0B5;L=>< @57C;LB0B5 2KG8A;5=89. 48=AB25==K9 ?CBL 871560BL MB>9 ?@>1;5<K  MB> 225AB8 C7:85 8A:CAAB25==K9 >3@0=8G5=8O 2 ?@>AB@0=AB2> 38?>B57. (p. 406) 0B5< >=8 >B<5G0NB, GB> 2 ?@>AB@0=AB25 38?>B57, A>45@60I5< B>;L:> 425 38?>B57K, 2AQ-B0:8 <>65B ?@>87>9B8 ACI5AB25==K9 A4283: A;8 <K @0AA<>B@8< A;CG09 A 42C<O 20@80=B0<8, >?8A0==K9 >AB@><><, <K ;53:> <>65< C1548BLAO, GB> >= ?@02 =0AGQB 25@>OB=>AB59. (p. 406) (5@>OB=>ABL 2 MB>< ?@8<5@5 A428=C;0AL A 50% 4> 99.999%, GB> =025@=O:0 7=0G8B5;L=>, 8 ?>4>1=K9 @57C;LB0B ?>;CG05BAO 4;O H8@>:>3> @071@>A0 87=0G0;L=KE 25@>OB=>AB59.) > >@1 8 ;825@ ?>;030NB, GB> B0:>9 7=0G8B5;L=K9 A4283 <>65B ?@>87>9B8 B>;L:> 2 B>< A;CG05, 5A;8 <K 2254Q< C7:85 8A:CAAB25==K9 >3@0=8G5=8O 2 ?@>AB@0=AB2> 38?>B57 ?CBQ< @0AA<>B@5=8O B>;L:> 42CE A>?5@=8G0NI8E 38?>B57 2<5AB5 <=>3> 1>;LH53> 8E G8A;0. 53:> C1548BLAO, 2 B><, GB> MB> =525@=>. 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"0:8< >1@07><, >1I0O ?@>1;5<0 > B><, :0: 2K18@0BL @5D5@5=B=K9 :;0AA  A>E@0=O5BAO.) K2>4: -B> 25@=>, GB> 5ABL A8AB5<0B8G5A:0O :>@@5;OF8O <564C =0H59 35=5B8G5A:>9 :>=AB@C:F859 8 =0H8< @0=3>< @>645=8O. 0;8G85 B0:>9 :>@@5;OF88 40QB =0< 0;LB5@=0B82=K9 (E>BO 8 =5 ?@0:B8G=K9) A?>A>1 CAB0=>28BL A2>9 @0=3 @>645=8O, => >=> =5 2;8O5B =0 >G5284=K5 >B=>H5=8O <564C =0;8G85< >?@545;Q==>3> @0=30 @>645=8O 8 38?>B570<8 > G5;>25G5A:>< 1C4CI5<. "0: GB> 2K 8<55B5 70:>==K5 >A=>20=8O AG8B0BL A51O 2 =5:>B>@>< A<KA;5 A;CG09=K< >1@07>< 2K1@0==K< 87 3@C??K ;N459, 4065 2 B>< A;CG05, 5A;8 C ;N459 @07=K5 35=K, GB> ?>:070=> 2 <KA;5==>< M:A?5@8<5=B5 6>=0 5A;8 (:>B>@>5 >@1 8 ;825@, : A>60;5=8N, =5 ?KB0NBAO :@8B8:>20BL 8;8 >1AC640BL). "0:8< >1@07><, ?OB>5 2>7@065=85 >:07K205BAO =5A?>A>1=K< >?@>25@3=CBL DA. !AK;:8: Bartha, P. and Hitchcock C. 1998: "No One Knows the Date of the Hour: An Unorthodox Application of Rev. Bayes Theorem". Paper presented at the Sixteenth Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association. Bostrom, N. 1997: "Investigations into the Doomsday Argument". Manuscript at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints.html. Delahaye, J-P. 1996: "Reserche de modles pour largument de lApocalypse de Carter-Leslie". Unpublished manuscript. Dieks, D. 1992: "Doomsday Or: the Dangers of Statistics". Philosophical Quaterly, 42 (166), pp. 78-84. Eckhardt, W. 1997: "A Shooting-Room view of Doomsday". Journal of Philosophy, Vol. XCIV, No. 5, pp. 244-259. Kopf, T., Krtous, P, and Page, D. N. 1994: "Too Soon for Doom Gloom?". Physics Preprints Archive, gr-qc/9407002. Korb, K. and Oliver, J. 1998: "A Refutation of the Doomsday Argument". Mind, Vol. 107, No. 426, pp. 403-410. Leslie, J. 1996: The End of the World: The Ethics and Science of Human Extinction. 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"5< =5 <5=55 =0< 2A5-B0:8 ;CGH5, G5< 68B5;O< 0B@8FK. 0725 =5B? 8: >AB@>< (Dr. Nick Bostrom)  D8;>A>D 87 5;LA:>3> C=825@A8B5B0.  1998 3>4C >@30=87>20; A5<8@=CN B@0=A3C<0=8AB8G5A:CN 0AA>F80F8N (2<5AB5 A M284>< 8@A><). '0AB> 2KABC?05B 2 A@54AB20E <0AA>2>9 8=D>@<0F88. AA;54>20B5;LA:85 8=B5@5AK >AB@><0 A2O70=K A D8;>A>D859 =0C:8, B5>@859 25@>OB=>AB59, 0 B0:65 A 87CG5=85< MB8G5A:8E 8 AB@0B538G5A:8E ?>A;54AB289 ?5@A?5:B82=KE B5E=>;>389 (2:;NG0O , =0=>B5E=>;>38N, 35==CN 8=65=5@8N 8 B.4.). <55B ?>7=0=8O 2 >1;0AB8 :>A<>;>388, 2KG8A;8B5;L=>9 =59@>=0C:8, <0B5<0B8G5A:>9 ;>38:8, D8;>A>D88, 8A:CAAB25==>3> 8=B5;;5:B0 8 MAB@04=>9 :><5488. /2;O5BAO 02B>@>< :=838  Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (Routledge, 2002). AB>G=8:: @8<8 :@0A=CN B01;5B:C: 0C:0, D8;>A>D8O 8 @5;838O 2 "0B@8F5". />4 @54. ;5=0 5DD5B0. [5@. A 0=3;. ". 02K4>20]. -- .: #;LB@0.C;LBC@0, 2003. M284 @8=. !8=3C;O@=>ABL 8 :>H<0@K. http://www.proza.ru/texts/2007/05/14-31.html 5@52>4: ;5:A59 0;5@L528G "C@G8= 07@5H5=> =5:><<5@G5A:>5 8A?>;L7>20=85 ?5@52>40. avturchin ----- mail.ru Permanent link to this article: http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0656.html Singularities and Nightmares by David Brin @81;860NI0OAO A8=3C;O@=>ABL 2:;NG05B 2 A51O A;54CNI85 20@80=BK: A0<>@07@CH5=85 F828;870F88, ?>78B82=0O A8=3C;O@=>ABL, =530B82=0O A8=3C;O@=>ABL (<0H8=K 15@CB 25@E) 8 2>72@0I5=85 : B@048F8>==><C >1@07C 687=8. 0H59 A@>G=>9 F5;LN O2;O5BAO: =09B8 >H81>G=K5 >1@07K 459AB289 (8 871560BL 8E), 8A?>;L7CO ?@542845=85 (<KA;5==K5 M:A?5@8<5=BK), 8 CA8;8BL 687=5A?>A>1=>ABL  A>740BL <>I=K5 A8AB5<K, :>B>@K5 <>3CB A?@02;OBLAO ?>GB8 A ;N1>9 ?@>1;5<>9 ?@8 5Q 2>7=8:=>25=88. ?C1;8:>20=> 2 @54AB02;5=85 =0=>B5E=>;>389: 17>@ A25@EB>G=>3> ?@>5:B8@>20=8O 8 =0=>B5E=>;>388. (Nanotechnology Perceptions: A Review of Ultraprecision Engineering and Nanotechnology, Volume 2, No. 1, March 27 2006.1 Reprinted with permission on KurzweilAI.net March 28, 2006). 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A>7=020O @073>= B5E=>;>389 2 18>B5E5, =0=>B5E5,  8 B. 4., =5:>B>@K5 8A:@5==85 ;N48  2@>45 8;; 6>O (Bill Joy), 1K2H53> 254CI53> CGQ=>3> D8@<K Sun  284OB <0;> H0=A>2 4;O 2K6820=8O ?>;=>ABLN >B@KB>3> >1I5AB20. >7<>6=>, 2K G8B0;8 3@CAB=K9 <0=8D5AB 6>O 2 6C@=0;5  Wired (3), 2 :>B>@>< >= F8B8@C5B #=01><15@0 (=5 :>3>-=81C4L, 0 8<5==> 53>) 2 ?>445@6:C ?@54?>;>65=8O, >4=>2@5<5==> AB0@>3> 8 =>2>3>  GB> =0H59 548=AB25==>9 =04564>9 =0 2K6820=85 <>65B 1KBL >B:07, C=8GB>65=85 8;8 >AB0=>2:0 =5A:>;L:8E 284>2 B5E=>;>38G5A:>3> ?@>3@5AA0. 45O >1 >B:075 ?>;CG8;0 ?>445@6:C ?>2AN4C =0 D8;>A>DA:>9 8 ?>;8B8G5A:>9 :0@B5, >A>15==> =0 :@09=5 ?@02KE 8 ;52KE 5Q :@0OE. >7L<Q<, =0?@8<5@, @><0=K 8 2KA:07K20=8O 0@30@5B B2C4 (Margaret Atwood), GL8 >A=>2=K5 AN65B=K5 ;8=88 ?>GB8 845=B8G=K B5<, GB> C 09:;0 @8GB>=0, =5A<>B@O =0 8E @07;8G8O 2 ?>25@E=>AB=>9 ?>;8B8:5. 10 02B>@0 ?>AB>O==> 2K@060NB 15A?>:>9AB2>, :>B>@>5 G0AB> ?5@5E>48B =0AB>OI55 >B2@0I5=85 ?> >B=>H5=8N : A0<>=0459=>9 3>@4K=5 B5E=>;>38G5A:8E 8==>20B>@>2, :>B>@K5 ?@>AB> =5 <>3CB ?@54>AB028BL ?@8@>4C 2 4>AB0B>G=>9 <5@5 A0<>9 A515. 0 4@C3>9 AB>@>=5 A?5:B@0 ?@02KE 8 ;52KE AB>8B $@M=A8A $C:CO<0, :>B>@K9 70=8<05B ?>AB Bernard L. 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"Why the future doesn't need us." Wired Magazine, Issue 8.04, April 2000. 4. %>BO <>Q >?8A0=85 >=F0 AB>@88 A;53:0 C?@>I05B 53>, E>B5;>AL 1K, GB>1K ?@54A:070=8O 2 >1I5AB25==KE =0C:0E B0: 65 BI0B5;L=> >BA;56820;8AL 1K =0 ?@54<5B 4>AB>25@=>AB8, :0: 2 D878:5.  1986 3>4C, =0 25@H8=5 :>=D@>=B0F88 M@K 5930=0, O ?@54A:070; ?@81;860NI55AO ?045=85 5@;8=A:>9 AB5=K, 70 :>B>@K< ?>A;54C5B =5A:>;L:> 45AOB8;5B89 8=B5=A82=>9 :>=D@>=B0F88 A B>9 8;8 8=>9 25B2LN <0G>-:C;LBC@K, 2>7<>6=>, 8A;0<><. 5. >4@>1=55 >1 MB>< 70B@C4=5=88 A<. http://www.davidbrin.com/sciencearticles.html 6.  1>;LH5 :2078-@5;838>7=KE A>F80;L=>-?>;8B8G5A:8E <8D>;>389 ?>A;54>20;>, =0G8=0=8O >B 70:;8=0=89 Ayn Rand 8 4> 0> &754C=0. 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Exorarium Project ?@54;0305B 4>AB8GL 2A53> MB>3> 8 3>@074> 1>;LH53> ?>A@54AB2>< ?@83;0H5=8O ?>A5B8B5;59 <C7552 8 >=;09= CG0AB=8:>2 2:;NG8BLAO 2 C=8:0;L=>5 >1@07>20B5;L=>5 ?@>AB@0=AB2>. 1J548=OO A8<C;OF8N =0 C@>2=5 8A:CAAB20 8 A8AB5<K 287C0;870F88 ?;NA A0<K5 ;CGH85 8458 87 0AB@>=><88, D878:8, E8<88 8 M:>;>388 Exorarium =045;8B ?>;L7>20B5;59 A8;>9 A>740BL C1548B5;L=> 682KE 8=>?;0=5BO= 8 70B5< ?@>B5AB8@>20BL 8E 2 @50;8AB8G5A:8E AF5=0@8OE ?5@2>3> :>=B0:B0. http://www.exorarium.com/ 9. ;O 1>;55 8=B5=A82=>3> @0AA<>B@5=8O 2>?@>A0 > B><, :0: 8AB8=0 >?@545;O5BAO 2 =0C:5, 45<>:@0B88, AC40E 8 @K=:0E, A<. 22>4=CN AB0BLN 2 American Bar Association's Journal on Dispute Resolution (Ohio State University), v.15, N.3, pp 597-618, Aug. 2000, "Disputation Arenas: Harnessing Conflict and Competition for Society's Benefit" or at: http://www.davidbrin.com/disputationarticle1.html 10.  4@C38E <5AB0E O >1AC640; @07;8G=K5 ?@54;0302H85AO ?CB8 @5H5=8O ?@>1;5<K >O;L=>AB8 2 =5:>B>@CN 1C4CICN M?>EC, :>340 <0H8==K9 8=B5;;5:B A<>65B 40;5:> ?@527>9B8 A?>A>1=>AB8 >1KG=KE >@30=8G5A:8E <>73>2. 0==85 ?@54;>65=8O (=0?@8<5@, 70:>=K @>1>B>B5E=8:8 78<>20) ?>GB8 =025@=O:0 =5 1C4CB @01>B0BL. 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The Gray Goo Problem by Robert A. Freitas Jr.  HYPERLINK "http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0142.html" http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0142.html ?5@52>4: .."C@G8=,  HYPERLINK "mailto:avturchin@mail.ru" avturchin@mail.ru @07@5H5=> =5:><<5@G5A:>5 8A?>;L7>20=85 ?5@52>40 ?@8 A>E@0=5=88 AAK;>:  :;0AA8G5A:>< AF5=0@88 A5@>9 A;878 -@8:0 @5:A;5@0 2KH54H85 87-?>4 :>=B@>;O =0=>B5E=>;>38G5A:85 @5?;8:0B>@K 8AB@51;ONB 2AN 687=L =0 5<;5. 0==0O AB0BLO >15@B0 $@59B0A0 ?@54AB02;O5B A>1>9 ?5@2K9 :>;8G5AB25==K9 B5E=8G5A:89 0=0;87 MB>3> :0B0AB@>D8G5A:>3> AF5=0@8O, 0 B0:65 ?@54;0305B @O4 2>7<>6=KE @5H5=89. =0 1K;0 =0?8A0=0 G0AB8G=> 2 >B25B =0 >?0A5=8O, =5402=> 2KA:070==K5 8;;>< 6>5<. 7=0G0;L=> MB0 AB0BLO 1K;0 >?C1;8:>20=0 2 0?@5;5 2000 3>40 ?>4 =0720=85< 5:>B>@K5 ?@545;K 3;>10;L=>9 M:>D0388 18>O4=K<8 =0=>@5?;8:0B>@0<8, A @5:><5=40F8O<8 4;O 3>AC40@AB25==>9 ?>;8B8:8. 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he author thanks Robert J. 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"C@G8= avturchin*mail.ru Geo-engineering Gone Awry: A New Partial Solution of Fermi s Paradox  HYPERLINK "http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0308/0308058.pdf" http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0308/0308058.pdf physics/0308058 Title: Geo-engineering Gone Awry: A New Partial Solution of Fermi's Paradox Authors: Milan M. Cirkovic, Richard Cathcart Comments: 14 pages, no figures Journal-ref: Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, vol. 57, pp. 209-215 (2004) By Milan M. irkovi Astronomical Observatory Belgrade Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO arioch@eunet.yu Richard B. 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">;L:> A>2A5< =5402=> <K 4>AB83;8 AB0488, =0 :>B>@>9 B0:>9 <0:@>?@>5:B, :0: 7>=4 !B525=A>=0 8AA8O : O4@C 5<;8 (MTEC), AB0; B5E=>;>38G5A:8 @50;87C5<. ><8<> ?@54;>65=8O C25;8G8BL >1I5AB25==>5 2=8<0=85 : MB>9 =>2>9, 4>ABC?=>9 =0H59 @50;870F88, C3@>75 ACI5AB2>20=8N, <K ?@54?>;0305<, GB> B0:0O AC4L10 ?>AB83;0 8;8 <>65B ?>AB8GL, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, =5:>B>@K5 4@C385 0;0:B8G5A:85 F828;870F88. K ?>:070;8 =5:>B>@K5, :@09=5 C<>7@8B5;L=K5 ?@8G8=K, ?>G5<C MB0 :;8<0B8G5A:0O :0B0AB@>D0 <>65B 1KBL 1>;55 A5@LQ7=>9 C3@>7>9 =0 4@C38E >18B05<KE ?;0=5B0E, G5< =0 5<;5. >340 MB0 C3@>70 ACI5AB2>20=8N 4>102;O5BAO : 4@C38< E>@>H> 8725AB=K< C3@>70<, AB0=>28BAO 2>7<>6=K<, GB> ?>;=K9 @8A:, A :>B>@K< AB0;:820NBAO F828;870F88, 4>AB0B>G=> 25;8:, GB>1K >1JOA=8BL ?>;=>5 >BACBAB285 8E ?@>O2;5=89. !AK;:8: 1 S. Webb, Where Is Everybody? Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox (NY: Copernicus Books, 2002) 288 pages. 2 E.C. Prosh and A.D. 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(@>1;5<0 >;48;>:A) (Goldilocks  452>G:0, 35@>8=O A:07:8, 2 @CAA:>< ?5@52>45 =07K20NI59AO 0H5=L:0 8 <542548, MB>9 452>G:5 2 4><5 C <5425459 >4=0 :@>20BL :065BAO A;8H:>< 6QAB:>9, 4@C30O - A;8H:>< <O3:>9, 8 B>;L:> >4=0 >:07K205BAO A>>B25BAB2CNI59; <5B0D>@8G5A:8 ?>4 Goldilocks >1>7=0G0NB A8BC0F8N, :>340 =5GB> O2;O5BAO =8 A;8H:>< <0;5=L:8<, =8 A;8H:>< 1>;LH8<, 0 B>G=> B0:8<, :0:8< >=> 8 4>;6=> 1KBL.  ?@8<. ?5@.) Milan M. irkovi. Evolutionary Catastrophes and the Goldilocks Problem. International Journal of Astrobiology, vol. 6, pp. 325-329 (2007) Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade, Serbia E-mail:  HYPERLINK "mailto:mcirkovic@aob.bg.ac.yu" mcirkovic@aob.bg.ac.yu  HYPERLINK "http://arxiv.org/abs/0709.2309" http://arxiv.org/abs/0709.2309 ?5@52>4: .."C@G8=,  HYPERLINK "mailto:avturchin@mail.ru" avturchin@mail.ru 04@5A ?5@52>40:  HYPERLINK "http://www.scribd.com/doc/8527974/-?enable_docview_caching=1&__user_id=3333070" http://www.scribd.com/doc/8527974/-?enable_docview_caching=1&__user_id=3333070 Abstract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anthropic overconfidence bias) ?> >B=>H5=8N : 2@5<5==9 0A8<<5B@88 M2>;NF8>==>3> ?@>F5AA0 2>7=8:05B, :>340 <K ?KB05<AO 2 ;>1 >F5=8BL :0B0AB@>D8G5A:85 @8A:8 =0 >A=>20=88 40==KE > ?@>H;>< 5<;8. -B>B 03=>AB8F87<, 2 A2>N >G5@54L, ?>4:@5?;O5B F5==>ABL 8 7=0G8<>ABL ?@0:B8G5A:8E 0AB@>18>;>38G5A:8E 8 SETI 8AA;54>20=89. ;NG52K5 A;>20: <0AA>2K5 2K<8@0=8O  =01;N40B5;L=0O A5;5:F8O  M2>;NF8>==K5 G@572KG09=K5 >1AB>OB5;LAB20 (evolutionary contingency)  :0B0AB@>D87< - 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8? 1.2545=85 48= 87 >?>@=KE AB>;?>2 ?@>B82>@5G82>9 38?>B57K @54:>9 5<;8 O2;O5BAO ?@>1;5<0 B>G=>3> ?>41>@0, :0A0NI0OAO @07;8G=KE ?0@0<5B@>2 >18B05<>9 ?;0=5BK. A;8 ?@>872>;L=K9 0AB@>18>;>38G5A:89 ?0@0<5B@  <>65B 8<5BL @07;8G=K5 7=0G5=8O =0 @07;8G=KE >18B05<KE ?;0=5B0E (?@5=51@56Q< ?>:0 53> 2@5<5==K<8 20@80F8O<8 =0 >4=>9 ?;0=5B5), B> B>340 B>;L:> >3@0=8G5==0O >1;0ABL 7=0G5=89  [min, max] ?@8254QB : 2>7=8:=>25=8N A;>6=>9 18>AD5@K, B0:>9 =0 5<;5.  :0G5AB25 ?@8<5@0 MB>3> ?@028;0, G0AB> ?@54?>;0305BAO, GB> A8;0 8 G0AB>B0 :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8E A>1KB89 2 8AB>@88 75<=>9 18>AD5@K A>>B25BAB2>20;0 42C< CA;>28O<:  1K;0 4>AB0B>G=> =87:>9, GB>1K =5 4>?CAB8BL ?>;=>3> C=8GB>65=8O 687=8 8;8 >AB0=>2:8 55 @0728B8O =0 <8:@>18>;>38G5A:>< C@>2=5, => ?@8 MB><: - 1K;0 4>AB0B>G=> 1>;LH>9, GB>1K >15A?5G8BL 4>AB0B>G=K9 M2>;NF8>==K9 A:0G>: 8 >15A?5G8BL @52>;NF88 2 D0C=5 8 >B:@KBL M:>;>38G5A:85 =8H8 4;O 1>;55 A;>6=KE 8 ?@>428=CBKE :>=AB@C:F89 682KE ACI5AB2. !CBL 8458 2 B><, GB> 2 A@54=5< G0AB>B0 :0B0AB@>D =0 ?;0=5B0E 75<=>3> B8?0 A:;>==0 1KBL ;81> 2KH5, ;81> =865, G5< G0AB>B0, E0@0:B5@=0O 4;O 8AB>@88 5<;8. "0:8< >1@07><, CA;>28O, =5>1E>48<K5 4;O 2>7=8:=>25=8O A;>6=>9 687=8 8 @07C<=KE =01;N40B5;59 4>;6=K 1KBL 25AL<0 @54:8<8. -B> 1K;> ?>:070=> #>@4>< 8 @0C=;8 (Ward and Brownlee 2000) 2 81;88 42865=8O @54:>9 5<;8, 8 1K;> ?> ACI5AB2C ?@8=OB> 2A5<8 ?>A;54>20B5;O<8 MB>9 0AB@>18>;>38G5A:>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O (2 G0AB=>AB8, E0@0:B5@=K ?> @07;8G=K< ?@8G8=0< @01>BK Carter 1993; Webb 2002; Conway Morris 2003; 8 @07;8G=K5 B5:ABK of Frank Tipler, =0?@8<5@, Tipler 2003.) 0B0AB@>DK, :>B>@K5 <K >1AC6405< 745AL, 2:;NG0NB 2 A51O =5 B>;L:> >1H8@=> 8AA;54>20==K5 0AB5@>84=>-:><5B=K5 8<?0:BK 8 8725@65=8O AC?5@2C;:0=>2, => B0:65 <5=55 ?>=OB=K5 O2;5=8O 2@>45 A25@E=>2KE 8 30<<0-2A?;5:A>2 8;8 4065 B5, > :>B>@KE =8:B> =5 ?@54?>;030; 4> A8E ?>@ (Leslie 1996; Bostrom 2002).  A@02=5=88 A 4@C38<8 CB25@645=8O<8 B5>@88 @54:>9 5<;8, MB> CB25@645=85 2K3;O48B C1548B5;L=K< 8 4065 ?@8BO30B5;L=K<.  :>=F5 :>=F>2, B>;L:> 2 B5G5=85 ?>A;54=59 G5B25@B8 25:0 <K >A>7=0;8, :0:CN 7=0G8B5;L=CN @>;L 83@0NB <0AA>2K5 2K<8@0=8O 2 >?@545;5=88 ?CB59 M2>;NF88, >A>15==> ?>A;5 8AA;54>20=89 Alvarez et al. (1980); A@548 ?>?C;O@=KE >17>@>2 A;54C5B >B<5B8BL Raup (1991), Courtillot (1999), 8 Erwin (2006).  C?@>IQ==>9 D>@<5 AB>OI85 70 MB8< @0AAC645=8O <>6=> ?@54AB028BL 2 A;54CNI59 D>@<5: 5<;O >1;0405B A2>9cB2>< X X :065BAO 0 ?@8>@8 <0;>25@>OB=K< A@548 75<;5?>4>1=KE ?;0=5B 0H5 2>7=8:=>25=85 A2O70=> A> A2>9AB2>< X K O2;O5<AO @07C<=K<8 =01;N40B5;O<8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- K2>4: >7=8:=>25=85 @07C<=KE =01;N40B5;59 =0 4@C38E 75<;5?>4>1=KE ?;0=5B0E O2;O5BAO <0;>25@>OB=K<.  =0H5< G0AB=>< A;CG05 X <>65B 1KBL >?@545;5=> :0: B>G=> =0AB@>5==K9 :0B0AB@>D87<. -B8 @0AAC645=8O <>6=> :@8B8:>20BL A @07;8G=KE B>G5: 7@5=8O. 0?@8<5@, :B>-B> <>65B >B@8F0BL ?@54?>AK;:C (3), => MB>B ?>4E>4 A59G0A =5?>?C;O@5=, 87-70 7;>C?>B@51;5=8O 8< 2 @5;838>7=KE F5;OE 2 ?@>H;><, E>BO >= >B@8F05BAO 8 =5:>B>@K<8 <8@A:8<8 D8;>A>D0<8 (=0?@8<5@, Wright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omo Sapiens , =5 7028A8<> >B B>3>, 2 :0:>9 <5@5 53> 02B>@K 8<5;8 2 284C 4@C3>5 (A B5<, GB>1K 871560BL >128=5=89 2 0=B@>?>F5=B@87<5; A<. =0?@8<5@ Carter 1983). !;54CNI89 2>?@>A, :>B>@K9 <K 4>;6=K 7040BL: =0A:>;L:> 1>;LH0O :0B0AB@>D0 2 :064K9 <><5=B 2@5<5=8 2 8AB>@88 5<;8 A>3;0AC5BAO A D0:B>< ACI5AB2>20=8O @07C<=KE =01;N40B5;59 2 =K=5H=89 <><5=B 2@5<5=8 t = t0? B<5B8<, GB> =01;N40B5;8, > :>B>@KE <K A?@0H8205< 745AL, =5 4>;6=K 1KBL =0<8, ;N4L<8, =8 2 <>@D>;>38G5A:><, =8 2 D8;>35=5B8G5A:><, =8 E>BO 1K 2 E@>=>;>38G5A:>< A<KA;5. 5 2ABC?0O 2 B@C4=CN 8 3>@OGCN 48A:CAA8N > B><, O2;O5BAO ;8 =0H5 ?@8ACBAB285 A59G0A A;CG09=K< 8;8 70:>=><5@=K< (contingent or convergent) (A<. @07;8G=K5 B>G:8 7@5=8O =0 MB>B 2>?@>A 2 @01>B0E Gould 1989; McShea 1998; Conway Morris 1998, 2003; Shanahan 1999, 2001), <K <>65< ?>?KB0BLAO 2K25AB8 =5:>B>@K5 ?@5420@8B5;L=K5 70:;NG5=8O ?>A@54AB2>< 87CG5=8O 4;O =0G0;0 :0:>3>-=81C4L :>=:@5B=>3> :0B0AB@>D8G5A:>3> O2;5=8O, 8 70B5< ?>:070BL, GB> B0:85 :@09=5 @07@CH8B5;L=K5 M?87>4K D0:B8G5A:8 ?>4@K20NB 8=D>@<0F8>==CN F5==>ABL 40==KE ?@>H;>3>. -B> 45;05B @0AAC645=8O 2 4CE5 >;48;>: =525@=K<8, ?>A:>;L:C >=8 =5 ?@8=8<0NB 2 @0AG5B 206=K5 MDD5:BK =01;N40B5;L=>9 A5;5:F88. 2. 0B0AB@>DK 8 =01;N40B5;L=0O A5;5:F8O 0209B5 @0AA<>B@8< :0B0AB@>D8G5A:>5 A>1KB85, :>B>@>5 157 A><=5=8O ?>2;8O;> =0 M2>;NF8O 75<=>9 18>AD5@K: ?045=85 0AB5@>840 '8:AC;C1 ?@8<5@=> 65 <8;;8>=>2 ;5B =0704. >A:>;L:C ;L20@5A ?@54;>68; MB>B 8<?0:B :0: 3;02=CN ?@8G8=C H8@>:> 8725AB=> M?87>40 <0AA>2>3> 2K<8@0=8O =0 3@0=8F5 /T, =0CG=>5 7=0G5=85 MB>3> 8<?0:B0 ?>AB>O==> @>A;>. "5?5@L <K 7=05<, GB> @07<5@ 8<?0:B>@0 1K; <564C 10 8 20 :<, 2 7028A8<>AB8 >B B0:8E ?0@0<5B@>2, :0: 2=CB@5==89 A>AB02, C3>; 2E>645=8O 8 A:>@>ABL B5;0 (Hughes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aher and Stevenson 1988). "0:8< >1@07><, B>;L:> :>=5G=K9  8 25AL<0 =51>;LH>9  @071@>A ?0@0<5B@>2 8<?0:B>@>2 2 :>=:@5B=K9 <><5=B 2@5<5=8 =0 3@0=8F5 /" <>3 ?@825AB8 : M2>;NF88 A>2@5<5==KE ;N459. (!>25@H5==> =58725AB=>, <>3;0 1K :0:0O-B> 4@C30O D>@<0 8=B5;;5:B0 @0728BLAO 157 <0AA>2KE 2K<8@0=89 ?> =5:8< >1I8< 18>;>38G5A:8< ?@8G8=0<, >4=0:> :065BAO 25AL<0 <0;>25@>OB=K<, GB> MB> <>3;> 1K ?@>87>9B8 2 B> 65 A0<>5 2@5<O).  8AC=>: 1. @>1;5<0 B>G=>9 =0AB@>9:8 2 >B=>H5=88 3@0=8FK K/T: B>;L:> 8<?0:B>@K 2 ?@545;0E C7:>9 70HB@8E>20==>9 ?>;>AK <>3;8 1K ?@825AB8 : ?@028;L=K< <0AA>2K< 2K<8@0=8O< (:>B>@K5 1K ?@825;8 : @0728B8N ;N459 2 =K=5H=NN M?>EC); 0: 1;LH85, B0: 8 <5=LH85 8<?0:B>@K ?@825;8 1K : =5ACI5AB2>20=8N ;N459. -B> >AB0QBAO 25@=K<, 4065 5A;8 <K ?@87=05< ACI5AB2>20=85 M<?8@8G5A:>9 25@E=59 3@0=8FK 2 @07<5@0E 8<?0:B>@>2. G5284=>, GB> MB0 65 @0AAC645=85 > ?@>1;5<5 B>G=>9 =0AB@>9:8 >B=>A8BAO 8 : 4@C38< D878G5A:8< ?@8G8=0< :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8E A>1KB89. 4=0:> GB> 65 MB> >7=0G05B? >;6=K ;8 <K 70:;NG8BL, GB> 8<55B <5AB> B>;L:> 0?@8>@8 :@09=5 <0;>25@>OB=>5 2575=85 2 >B=>H5=88 B>=:>9 =0AB@>9:8 :0B0AB@>D, =5>1E>48<>9 4;O =0H53> ACI5AB2>20=8O, :0: AB>@>==8:8 38?>B57K @54:>9 5<;8 AC4O ?> 2A5<C ?>;030NB? 5 >1O70B5;L=>, ?>A:>;L:C (0) >G5284=> =525@=> AG8B0BL, GB> 2 A;CG05 =5 2>7=8:=>25=8O ;N459 =8:0:8E @07C<=KE =01;N40B5;59 =5 2>7=8:;> 1K 2>>1I5 : =0AB>OI5<C <><5=BC (A@02=8 2 Russell 1983; McKay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ampino and Self 1992; Ambrose 1998). 065 5A;8 MB> >:065BAO ;>6=K< 2 @57C;LB0B5 ?>A;54CNI8E 8AA;54>20=89, :065BAO >G5284=K<, GB> 2KA>:0O :>@@5;OF8O AC?5@2C;:0=8G5A:8E 8725@65=89 A ?5@8>40<8 <0AA>2KE 2K<8@0=89 ?>4B25@6405B 8E M2>;NF8>==>5 7=0G5=85.) =D>@<0F8N, :>B>@CN <K ?@8=8<05< 2 @0AG5B 2 1095A>2>< 4CE5  MB> A0< D0:B =0H53> ACI5AB2>20=8O 2 =K=5H=NN M?>EC (=5 >1O70B5;L=> 2:;NG0NI89 2;8O=85 ?5@BC@10F89 =0 ?CB8 M2>;NF88; MB> 2A53> ;8HL ?@>AB0O 18=0@=0O <>45;L). K <>65< AE5<0B8G5A:8 ?@54AB028BL A8BC0F8N =0 @8AC=:5 2: 0?@8>@=0O 25@>OB=>ABL :0B0AB@>DK >1>7=0G5=0 :0: P 8 25@>OB=>ABL G5;>25G5A:>3> 2K6820=8O (8;8 =54>AB0B>G=> A8;L=KE ?5@BC@10F89, >AB02;ONI8E ?CB8 M2>;NF88 2 ?@545;0E <>@D>;>38G5A:>3> ?>4?@>AB@0=AB20, A>45@60I53> ;N459) ?>A;5 MB>3> :0B0AB@>D8G5A:>3> A>1KB8O :0: Q. K ?@54?>;>68<, GB> >15 25@>OB=>AB8 (0) O2;ONBAO :>=AB0=B0<8, (1) 045:20B=K< >1@07>< =>@<0;87>20=K 8 (2) ?@8<5=8<K : :>=:@5B=> >?@545;Q==K< 8=B5@20;0< 2@5<5=8 2 ?@>H;><. !>1KB85 B2  MB> A>1KB85 :0B0AB@>DK, 8 ?>4 E <K >1>7=0G8< A2845B5;LAB2> > =0H5< =K=5H=5< ACI5AB2>20=88. .  8AC=>: 2. !E5<0B8G5A:>5 ?@54AB02;5=85 ?@>AB>9 <>45;8 A >4=8< A>1KB85<. !2845B5;LAB2>  A>AB>8B 2 A0<>< D0:B5 =0H53> ACI5AB2>20=8O A59G0A. @O<>5 ?@8<5=5=85 D>@<C;K 095A0 40QB:  EMBED Equation.3  (2) @8 8A?>;L7>20=88 =0H8E >1>7=0G5=89 40QB ?>AB5@8>@=CN 25@>OB=>ABL:  EMBED Equation.3  (3) 5AL<0 =5?>A@54AB25==K5 0;351@08G5A:85 <0=8?C;OF88 ?>:07K20NB, GB>:  EMBED Equation.3  (4) "> 5ABL GB> <K A:;>==K =54>>F5=820BL ?>4;8==K9 @8A: :0B0AB@>DK.  8=BC8B82=> ?>=OB=> ?>G5<C: A8<<5B@8O <564C ?@>H;K< 8 1C4CI5< @0718B0 A0<8< D0:B>< ACI5AB2>20=8O M2>;NF8>==>3> ?@>F5AA0, ?@8254H53> : =0H5<C 2>7=8:=>25=8N 2 :0G5AB25 =01;N40B5;59 2 MB>B :>=:@5B=K9 <><5=B 2@5<5=8. K <>65< >6840BL 1>;LHCN :0B0AB@>DC 702B@0, => <K =5 <>65<  4065 157 :0:>3>-;81> M<?8@8G5A:>3> 7=0=8O  >6840BL =09B8 A;54K 1>;LH>9 :0B0AB@>DK, :>B>@0O A;CG8;0AL 2G5@0, ?>A:>;L:C >=0 1K ?@825;0 : =5ACI5AB2>20=8N =0A A59G0A. K <>65< >?@545;8BL ?0@0<5B@ 0=B@>?=>9 A25@EC25@5==>AB8 :0::  EMBED Equation.3  (5) 2KA25G820O 25;8G8=C MB>3> 8A:065=8O 2 :>;8G5AB25==>9 D>@<5; >G5284=>, GB> =0H8 7=0=8O =0 >A=>20=88 ?@>H;>3> AB0=>2OBAO =5=04Q6=K<8, 5A;8  > 1, 8 A>25@H5==> 15A?>;57=K<8 ?@8  >> 1.  :>=:@5B=>< A;CG05 =0H59 ?@>AB>9 <>45;8 ?0@0<5B@ A25@EC25@5==>AB8 AB0=>28BAO:  EMBED Equation.3  (6) A5 7=0G5=8O ?0@0<5B@0, 1>;LH85, G5<  ~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quation.3  !25@EC25@5==>ABL AB0=>28BAO >G5=L 1>;LH>9 >B=>A8B5;L=> >G5=L 45AB@C:B82=KE A>1KB89! G5284=K< A;54AB285< O2;O5BAO B>, GB> 25@>OB=>ABL 01A>;NB=> 45AB@C:B82=KE A>1KB89, :>B>@K5 G5;>25G5AB2> =5 8<55B H0=A>2 ?5@568BL 2>>1I5 (Q = 0), ?>;=>ABLN @07@CH05B =04Q6=>ABL =0H8E ?@54A:070=88 =0 >A=>20=88 ?@>H;KE 40==KE. -B> ?>GB8 B@8280;L=>5 70:;NG5=85, >4=0:>, =5 O2;O5BAO >1I5?@8=OBK<. 0?@>B82, 4>2>;L=> 8725AB=K9 0@3C<5=B %0B0 8 8A0 (Hut and Rees 1983) > 20:CC<=>< D07>2>< ?5@5E>45 A>45@68B 25AL<0 =5B@8280;L=CN >H81:C  =5?@8=OB85 2 @0AGQB MDD5:B0 =01;N40B5;L=>9 A5;5:F88. 07C<55BAO, 3>@074> 1>;55 A;>6=0O <>45;L, 2:;NG0NI0O A5@88 A;CG09=KE :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8E A>1KB89 4>;6=0 1KBL @0728B0, => >A=>2=0O D8;>A>DA:0O ?>AK;:0 OA=0: <K =5 4>;6=K @0AAC640BL B0:, :0: 5A;8 1K =0H0 ?@>H;0O M2>;NF8O 01A>;NB=> B8?8G=0 4;O 75<;5?>4>1=>9 ?;0=5BK, =5 ?@8=8<0O 2 @0AG5B =0H5 =K=5H=55 ACI5AB2>20=85. -B> 8<55B 206=K5 ?>A;54AB28O 4;O =0H53> 87CG5=8O @>;8 :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8E A>1KB89 2 >1I5< 0AB@>18>;>38G5A:>< :>=B5:AB5, B> 5ABL 2 M2>;NF88 B8?8G=>9 18>AD5@K 2 30;0:B8:5. 0A:>;L:> 25;8:> 2;8O=85 :0B0AB@>D =0 M2>;NF8N =0 4@C38E >18B05<KE ?;0=5B0E 2 0H59 0;0:B8:5? K =5 <>65< MB>3> A:070BL, ?>A:>;L:C G5< A8;L=55 :0B0AB@>D8G5A:>5 402;5=85 (B> 5ABL G5< 1>;LH5 0=0;>3 =0H59 25@>OB=>AB8 1 - Q 2 A@54=5<), B5< <5=LH5 ?>;57=>9 8=D>@<0F88 <K <>65< 872;5GL > 1;87>AB8, 8;8 =0>1>@>B 40;L=>AB8, =0H53> :>=:@5B=>3> 8AB>@8G5A:>3> >?KB0 : B><C, GB> A;CG05BAO >1KG=>. ">;L:> A5@LQ7=K5 0AB@>18>;>38G5A:85 8AA;54>20=8O <>3CB 40BL :;NG : MB>9 3>;>2>;><:5. 5:>B>@K5 40==K5 C65 5ABL. 0?@8<5@, >48= E>@>H> 87CG5==K9 A;CG09  MB> A8AB5<0 7=0<5=8B>9 >:>;>A>;=5G=>9 72574K "0C 8B0, :>B>@0O A>45@68B :0: ?;0=5BK, B0: 8 <0AA82=K9 48A: 87 >1;><:>2, 0=0;>38G=K9 ?>OAC >9?5@0 2 !>;=5G=>9 A8AB5<5. >45;8@>20=85 ?K;52>3> 48A:0 "0C 8B0 ?>:07K205B, >4=0:>, GB> <0AA0 AB0;:820NI8EAO B5; 2?;>BL 4> 10 :< 2 480<5B@5 <>65B A>AB02;OBL 2 AC<<5 1.2 <0AAK 5<;8, 2 A@02=5=88 A 0.1 <0AA>9 5<;8, >F5=8205<K< 4;O ?>OA0 -462>@B0->9?5@0 2 !>;=5G=>9 A8AB5<5 (Greaves et al. 2004). "0:8< >1@07><, ?K;52>9 48A: "0C 8B0 <>65B A>45@60BL 2 10 @07 1>;LH5 :><5B=>3> 8 0AB5@>84=>3> <0B5@80;0, G5< A59G0A >1=0@C68205BAO 2 !>;=5G=>9 A8AB5<5  =5A<>B@O =0 B>B D0:B, GB> "0C 8B0, AC4O ?> 2A5<C, 2 420 @070 AB0@H5 !>;=F0. (5<;5?>4>1=K5 ?;0=5BK ?>:0 =5 1K;8 >1=0@C65=K 2>:@C3 "0C 8B0, => 2 284C 3@C1KE B5E=8: =01;N45=8O, :>B>@K5 1K;8 4>ABC?=K 4> A8E ?>@, MB>3> 8 =5 A;54>20;> >6840BL; 3>B>28BAO =>2>5 ?>:>;5=85 8=AB@C<5=B>2 4;O ?>8A:0 ?;0=5B (DARWIN, Gaia, TPF, etc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e.g. Kitchell and Pena 1984; Benton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yson 1966; Gould 1987; Dick 2003; irkovi and Bradbury 2006). ABL =5A:>;L:> ?@0:B8G5A:8E A;54AB289 87 2K2>4>2 (1) 8 (2). 48= A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> B>;L:> 0AB@>18>;>38O, 2 =0AB>OI89 <><5=B ?5@56820NI0O 27@K2=>9 @>AB, A<>65B A:070BL =0<, ACI5AB2CNB ;8 4@C385 18>AD5@K 8 4@C385 @07C<=K5 F828;870F88 2 =0H59 0;0:B8:5. 8:0:85 4820==K5 @0AAC645=8O =5 ?><>3CB =0< 871560BL MDD5:B>2 =01;N40B5;L=>9 A5;5:F88 2 >B=>H5=88 M2>;NF8>==>3> @0728B8O @07C<=KE =01;N40B5;59 =0 5<;5. 0>1>@>B, ?;>4>B2>@=K5 8AA;54>20=8O 2@>45 B5E, GB> ?@>25;8 Greaves et al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ostrom and irkovi 2008). ;03>40@=>AB8: / E>GC 2>A?>;L7>20BLAO 2>7<>6=>ABLN ?>1;03>40@8BL =AB8BCB 1C4CI53> G5;>25G5AB20 (Future of Humanity Institute), =0E>4OI89AO 2 :AD>@45, 5;8:>1@8B0=8O, 70 8E 4>1@>5 3>AB5?@88<AB2> 2 B> 2@5<O, :>340 MB0 @01>B0 >14C<K20;0AL. -B0 @01>B0 1K;0 G0AB8G=> ?>445@60=0 8=8AB5@AB2>< =0C:8 5A?C1;8:8 !5@18O ?> ?@>5:BC ON146012. >;57=K5 48A:CAA88 A Anders Sandberg, Nick Bostrom, Robert Bradbury, Slobodan Popovi, 8 Robin Hanson B0:65 70A;C6820NB 1;03>40@=>AB8. 20 @5D5@5=B0 87 6C@=0;0 564C=0@>4=K9 6C@=0; ?> 0AB@>18>;>388 (International Journal of Astrobiology) 4>1028;8 ?>;57=K5 :><<5=B0@88 : ?@54K4CI59 25@A88 MB>9 @C:>?8A8. Aleksandar Zorki ?><>3 A @8A>20=85< D83C@K 2. 5AF5==0O B5E=8G5A:0O ?><>IL 8 2>>4CH52;5=85 >B Irena Dikli AK3@0;8 206=CN @>;L 2 7025@H5=88 ?@>5:B0. References Alvarez, L., Alvarez, W., Asaro, F., and Michel, H.V., 1980,  Extraterrestrial cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction, Science 208, 1095-1108. Ambrose, S. H. 1998,  Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans, Journal of Human Evolution 34, 623-651. Barrow, J. D. and Tipler, F. J. 1986, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Oxford University Press, New York). Benton, M. J. 1995,  Diversification and Extinction in the History of Life, Science 268, 52-58. Bostrom, N. 2002,  Existential Risks, Journal of Evolution and Technology 9 (http://www.jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html). Bostrom, N. and irkovi, M. M. (eds.) 2008, Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford University Press, Oxford), in press. 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A. 1983,  Exponential Evolution: Implications for Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life, Adv. Space Res. 3, 95-103. Shanahan, T. 1999,  Evolutionary progress from Darwin to Dawkins, Endeavour 23, 171-174. Shanahan, T. 2001,  Methodological and Contextual Factors in the Dawkins/ Gould Dispute Over Evolutionary Progress, Stud. Hist. Phil. Biol. & Biomed. Sci. 32, 127-151. Tipler, F. J. 2003,  Intelligent Life in Cosmology, International Journal of Astrobiology 2, 141-148. Ward, P. D. and Brownlee, D. 2000, Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe (Springer, New York). Webb, S. 2002, Where is Everybody? Fifty Solutions to the Fermi's Paradox (Copernicus, New York). Wright, Robert. 2000. Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny. NY: Pantheon Books. ;5:A59 "C@G8=. @8@>4=K5 :0B0AB@>DK 8 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8? (>G5<C 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8? ?5@5AB0; =0A 70I8I0BL: =01;N40B5;L=0O A5;5:F8O, G0AB>B0 1C4CI8E :0B0AB@>D 8 E@C?:>ABL >:@C60NI59 A@54K.) @54K4CI0O 25@A8O MB>9 AB0BL8 >?C1;8:>20=0 2 @>1;5<K C?@02;5=8O @8A:0<8 8 157>?0A=>ABLN, "@C4K =AB8BCB0 A8AB5<=>3> 0=0;870 , B. 31., 2007, AB@. 306-332. 4@5A 4>:C<5=B0:  HYPERLINK "http://www.scribd.com/doc/8553049/-" http://www.scribd.com/doc/8553049/- Abstract: A=>2=0O 845O MB>9 AB0BL8 A>AB>8B =5 B>;L:> 2 B><, GB> =01;N40B5;L=0O A5;5:F8O ?@82>48B : =54>>F5=:5 G0AB>BK ?@8@>4=KE :0B0AB@>D 2 1C4CI5<, => 2 B><, GB> =0H <8@ <>65B 1KBL 3>@074> 1>;55 E@C?>:, G5< MB> :065BAO, ?> >B=>H5=8N : 0=B@>?>35==K< 2>7459AB28O< (?>4>1=> A25@E=04CB><C 2>74CH=><C H0@8:C), GB> >A>15==> 206=> 2 >B=>H5=88 B0:8E ?@>F5AA>2, :0: 3;>10;L=>5 ?>B5?;5=85 8;8 3;C1>:>5 1C@5=85 75<=>9 :>@K. =B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8? 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Contents  TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc215929018" 2545=85.  PAGEREF _Toc215929018 \h 2  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc215929019" 1. =B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8?. -DD5:B =01;N40B5;L=>9 A5;5:F88. 57C;LB0BK >AB@><0 8 "53<0@:0.  PAGEREF _Toc215929019 \h 3  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc215929020" 2. ;>B=>ABL =01;N40B5;59 2> 2A5;5==>9, G0AB>B0 :0B0AB@>D 8 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8?.  PAGEREF _Toc215929020 \h 11  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc215929021" 3. @8@>4=K5 :0B0AB@>DK.  PAGEREF _Toc215929021 \h 16  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc215929022" 4. @8<5=5=85 0=B@>?=>3> ?@8=F8?0 4;O 0=0;870 G0AB>BK ?@8@>4=KE :0B0AB@>D.  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Cirkovic,  On the Importance of SETI for Transhumanism , Journal of Evolution and Technology, xiii (2003), ),  HYPERLINK "http://www.jetpress.org/volume13/" http://www.jetpress.org/volume13/. CAA:89 ?5@52>4: 8;0= '8@:>28G.  206=>AB8 SETI 4;O B@0=A3C<0=87<0  HYPERLINK "http://www.proza.ru/2008/11/10/384" http://www.proza.ru/2008/11/10/384), B>340 :0: 2B>@0O ?@54?>;0305B, GB> >18B05<K9 ?;0=5BK 2>7=8:0NB :@09=5 @54:>. @09=85 D>@<K MB8E B>G5: 7@5=8O <>6=> 2K@078BL B0:: 18B05<K5 ?;0=5BK A @07C<=>9 687=LN 2>7=8:0NB 4>AB0B>G=> G0AB>, 0 8<5==>, G0I5, G5< 1 72574K 87, A:065<, 1000 (A<. 40;55 >1AC645=85 ?@>1;5<K 3@0=8FK <564C MB8<8 38?>B570<8). 18B05<K5 ?;0=5BK A @07C<=>9 687=LN 2>7=8:0NB :@09=5 @54:>, 8 5<;O O2;O5BAO 548=AB25==>9 >18B05<>9 ?;0=5B>9 2 =01;N405<>9 A5;5==>9.  MB>9 AB0BL5 <K 1C45< 8AE>48BL 87 ?@54?>;>65=8O, GB> @50;L=0O A8BC0F8O 1;865 :> 2B>@>9 B>G:5 7@5=8O. 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"@C4K V 01010E8=A:8E GB5=89, !=568=A:. 8=45<0= . B09=0O 687=L AC?5@2C;:0=>2 // 2006.  <8@5 =0C:8. N 10. ( HYPERLINK "http://www.sciam.ru/2006/10/nauka1.shtml" http://www.sciam.ru/2006/10/nauka1.shtml) C4K:> .., 0=>2 .., /=H8= . AB>@8O 0B<>AD5@K. ., 1985 AL:>2 ... AB>@8O 5<;8 8 687=8 =0 =59.  ., & -!, 2004. @>1KH52A:89 -.. ?0A=>ABL 27@K20 0;;8AB> 8 ?@8>@8B5B=>ABL :>A<8G5A:8E <8AA89 // 1999. C@=0; B5E=8G5A:>9 D878:8, B>< 69, 2K?. 9. 5;L<0=>2 .. 5:>B>@K5 D8;>A>DA:85 0A?5:BK A>2@5<5==>9 :>A<>;>388 8 A<56=KE >1;0AB59 D878:8 // 80;5:B8:0 8 A>2@5<5==>5 5AB5AB2>7=0=85, ., 1970. 07NB8=A:89 .., 0;0H>2 ... 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8?. AB>@8O 8 A>2@5<5==>ABL // 1989. @8@>40. N 1. ( HYPERLINK "http://vivovoco.rsl.ru/VV/JOURNAL/NATURE/OLD/ANTROP.HTM" http://vivovoco.rsl.ru/VV/JOURNAL/NATURE/OLD/ANTROP.HTM) 8=45 .. 074C20NI0OAO A5;5==0O // #A?5E8 D87. =0C:. 1984. ". 144, 2K?. 2. >28:>2 .., >;=0@52 .., >75=B0;L .. '8A;>2K5 7=0G5=8O DC=40<5=B0;L=KE ?>AB>O==KE 8 0=B@>?=K9 ?@8=F8? // 72.  -!! . 1982. 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HYPERLINK "http://www.proza.ru/texts/2007/03/08-62.html" http://www.proza.ru/texts/2007/03/08-62.html ) Knobe Joshua, Olum Ken D., Vilenkin Alexander. Philosophical Implications of Inflationary Cosmology. // British Journal for the Philosophy of Science ;048A;02 CABK=A:89. >A;54AB28O ?045=8O =0 5<;N :@C?=KE 0AB5@>84>2 email: venjamin@icom.ee URL: http://www.aai.ee/~vladislav %0@0:B5@ C3@>7K  ?>A;54=55 2@5<O B5<0 AB>;:=>25=8O =0H59 ?;0=5BK A :@C?=K<8 =515A=K<8 B5;0<8 AB0;0 4>2>;L=> H8@>:> >1AC640BLAO :0: 2 =0CG=KE :@C30E, B0: 8 2 A@54AB20E <0AA>2>9 8=D>@<0F88. > <=>3>< MB> A2O70=> A ?>O2;5=85< =0 M:@0=0E A@07C 42CE D8;L<>2-:0B0AB@>D ("Armageddon" 8 "Deep Impact"). >A:>;L:C 8 ?@54AB02;5==K< =0 M:@0=5 A>1KB8O<, 8 ?>?C;O@=K< A>>1I5=8O 2 ?@5AA5 O2=> =54>AB0QB B>G=>AB8, B> O @5H8; ?@>8725AB8 A0<>AB>OB5;L=>5 8AA;54>20=85 2>?@>A0 =0 >A=>25 A>>1I5=89 2 ;8B5@0BC@5 8 ?C1;8:0F89 2 =B5@=5B5. @>1;5<0 @0A?0405BAO =0 425 G0AB8: ?>A;54AB285 A0<>3> AB>;:=>25=8O 8 A?>A>1K 53> ?@>3=>78@>20=8O 8 ?@54>B2@0I5=8O. 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"0:85 AB>;:=>25=8O ?@>8AE>4OB @565, G5< @07 2 100 <;=. ;5B, 8 C =0A ?>:0 =5B <5B>48:, ?>72>;ONI8E 4065 ?@81;878B5;L=> @0AAG8B0BL 8E ?>A;54AB28O. 8B5@0BC@0: 1. "7@K2=K5 :@0B5@K =0 5<;5 8 ?;0=5B0E", A1>@=8: AB0B59. - >A:20, "8@", 1968 2. ..%@O=8=0, "5B5>@8B=K5 :@0B5@K =0 5<;5". - >A:20, "54@0", 1987 3. 45=5: C:0;, "@8@>4=K5 :0B0AB@>DK". - >A:20, "=0=85", 1985 4. "!;54K :>A<8G5A:8E 2>7459AB289 =0 5<;N", A1>@=8: =0CG=KE AB0B59. - >2>A818@A:, "0C:0", !818@A:>5 >B45;5=85, 1990 5. "59AB285 O45@=>3> >@C68O". - >A:20, >5==>5 8740=85 <8=8AB5@AB20 >1>@>=K !!! , 1965 6. ">A;54AB28O O45@=>9 2>9=K. $878G5A:85 8 0B<>AD5@=K5 MDD5:BK" (B>< 1). - >A:20, "8@", 1988 7. .$.>38=>2, "C;:0=8G5A:85 8725@65=8O 8 :;8<0B". - 5=8=3@04, "84@><5B8740B", 1984 #8;LO< 59?L5@. ?0A=>ABL :><5B 8 0AB5@>84>2 William Napier. Hazards from comets and asteroids ?C1;8:>20=>: Global Catastrophic Risks, Edited by Nick Bostrom 8 Milan M. Cirkovic OXPORD UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2008 5@52>4: .. 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mel'yanenko and Bailey, 1998). ?0A=>ABL, :>B>@CN ?@54AB02;ONB MB8 =52848<K5 A?OI85 B5;0, <>65B 1KBL A@02=8<0 A >?0A=>ABLN =01;N405<KE >:>;>75<=KE 0AB5@>84>2, 2 A>>B25BAB288 A 4@C38<8 8AA;54>20=8O<8, :>B>@K5 ?>4>1=K< 65 >1@07>< ?@8H;8 : 2K2>4C, GB> 0:B82=K5 8 A?OI85 :><5BK 2<5AB5 A>AB02;ONB 7=0G8B5;L=CN, 8 2>7<>6=> 4><8=8@CNICN 4>;N >:>;>75<=KE 8<?0:B>@>2 :8;><5B@>2KE @07<5@>2 (Rickman et al., 2001; see also Nurmi et al., 2001). @>1;5<0 A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> 4065 >G5=L BQ<=KE :><5B 4>;6=> 1K;> 1KBL >B:@KB> : =0AB>OI5<C <><5=BC >:>;> 400, - >4=0:> 8E 8725AB=> B>;L:> 25 (>=8 >1@07CNB 3@C??C 0<>:;>84>2.) 7 MB>3> A;54C5B >B@060NI0O A?>A>1=>ABL ?>25@E=>AB8 2 0.04 2 A@02=5=88 A ?>25@E=>ABO<8 8725AB=KE A?OI8E :><5B. @C30O 2>7<>6=>ABL A>AB>8B 2 B><, GB> :><5BK 87 3@C??K 0;;58 F5;8:>< @07@CH0NBAO, ?>;=>ABLN ?@52@0I0OAL 2 ?K;L ?>A;5 >4=>3> 8;8 42CE ?@>E>4>2 2 ?5@835;88. (Levison et al., 2002). -B0 38?>B570 1K;0 ?@8=OB0 :><0=4>9 >BA;56820=8O >:>;>75<=KE >1J5:B>2 2 ! (Stokes et al., 2003) 8 O2;O5BAO >A=>2>9 4;O 8E 70O2;5=8O, GB>, :0: 0:B82=K5, B0: 8 A?OI85 :><5BK, A>AB02;ONB =5 1>;55 G5< 1% >B C3@>7K AB>;:=>25=8O. 4=0:> MB0 38?>B570 B>65 8<55B ?@>1;5<K (Napier et al., 2004; Rickman; 2005). 0?@8<5@, 4;O B>3>, GB>1K ?@>F5AA @01>B0;, >:>;> 99% >B =>2KE :><5B B8?0 0;;58 4>;6=K @0A?040BLAO B0:8< >1@07><. 4=0:> B0:0O ?>;=0O 8 1KAB@0O 4578=B53@0F8O =5 O2;O5BAO, AC4O ?> 2A5<C, =>@<0;L=>9 AC4L1>9 :><5B: ?>GB8 2A5 A8;L=59H85 5653>4=K5 <5B5>@=K5 4>648 8<5NB 2 :0G5AB25 8AB>G=8:0 ;81> 0:B82=CN :><5BC 8;8 1>;LH>5 A?OI55 B5;>, ?@54?>;>68B5;L=>, C<5@H53> @>48B5;O. (Table 11.1). >6=> ?>AB028BL ?>4 A><=5=85 ?@8=OBCN =0<8 >B@060B5;L=CN A?>A>1=>ABL 2 0.04 4;O A?OI8E :><5B, 2KG8A;5==CN =0 >A=>20=88 =01;N405<KE ?>25@E=>AB=KE A2>9AB2 0:B82=KE :><5B. @>;QB :>A<8G5A:>3> 0??0@0B0 <8<> :><5BK >@@5;8 >1=0@C68; ?@8ACBAB285 BQ<=KE ?OB5= A >B@060NI59 A?>A>1=>ABLN 0.008 (Nelson et al., 2004): 5A;8 1K 2A5 ?>25@E=>AB8 :><5BK B5<=5;8 1K 4> B0:>9 AB5?5=8, :>340 >=8 AB0=>28;8AL =50:B82=K<8, B> B>340 ?0@04>:A 1K; 1K @5HQ=. !B0=40@B=0O B5>@8O 87;CG5=8O ?>:07K205B, GB> :><5B0, :>B>@0O AB0=>28BAO ?>;=>ABLN =50:B82=>9, B5@O5B 2A5 A2>8 70<Q@7H85 ;5BCG85 25I5AB20 =0 ?>25@E=>AB8 8 >AB02;O5B AB@C:BC@C 2 2845 ?B8GL53> 3=5740 =0 ?>25@E=>AB8, 459AB28B5;L=> <>65B 8<5BL >G5=L <0;CN >B@060NICN A?>A>1=>ABL (Napier et al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ernandez et al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ivkin et al., 2005) 8;8 =0 A?CB=8:0E.  >B=>H5=85 >?0A=KE >1J5:B>2, 4286CI8EAO ?> :>@>B:>?5@8>48G=K< >@18B0<, ?5@5A5:0NI8< 75<=CN, C3@>70 1C45B 8725AB=0 70 45AOB8;5B8O 8 AB>;5B8O 4> AB>;:=>25=8O.  >B=>H5=88 :><5BK 1C45B B>;L:> =5A:>;L:> <5AOF52 ?>A;5 ?@54C?@5645=8O >1 C40@5.  A;CG05 BQ<=>3> 0<>:;>840 ?@54C?@5645=8O =5 1C45B 2>>1I5. 3. -DD5:BK AB>;:=>25=8O. 045=85 "C=3CAA:>3> <5B5>@8B0 30 8N=O 1908 3>40 =0 F5=B@0;L=>< A818@A:>< ?;0B> 1K;> 27@K2>< 2 2>74CE5 A M=5@3859 >B 10 4> 30 <530B>==, GB> A>>B25BAB2C5B >G5=L <>I=>9 2>4>@>4=>9 1><15. -B>B 27@K2 C=8GB>68; ?@8<5@=> 2000 :2. :< ;5A0, 2K@202 A :>@=5< 45@52LO 8 ?>;>682 :@>=0<8 2 >4=C AB>@>=C. "0:85 MDD5:BK O2;ONBAO ;>:0;L=K<8 ?> A2>8< ?>A;54AB28O< (5A;8 B>;L:> 8E =5 ?5@5?CB0NB A> 27@K2>< 2>4>@>4=>9 1><1K 2 ?5@8>4 :@878A0). F5=:8 8E ?>2B>@O5<>AB8 A>AB02;ONB >B 200 4> 2000 ;5B. @8 27@K20E A8;>9 10000 <530B>==  A@02=8<K5 ?> M=5@388 A ?>;=><0AHB01=>9 O45@=>9 2>9=>9  ?;>I04L @07@CH5=89 A>AB02;O5B >:>;> 100000 :2.:<. (B01;. 2) A:>;:8 2K;5B52H8E ABQ:; 2 3>@>4A:8E @09>=0E ?@8254CB : 7=0G8B5;L=K< @0=5=8O< 40;5:> 70 ?@545;0<8 MB>9 >1;0AB8. >4=8<0NI89AO >3=5==K9 H0@ >B B0:>3> 8<?0:B0 <>65B ?@825AB8 : A5@LQ7=K< >6>30< 8 8=B5=A82=K< 2>73>@0=8O< 40;5:> 70 ?@545;0<8 MB>9 >1;0AB8, 2 B> 2@5<O :0: 75<;5B@OA5=8O M:AB@5<0;L=>9 A8;K @0A?@>AB@0=8BAO =0 @0AAB>O=85 A>B=8 :8;><5B@>2 >B <5AB0 ?045=8O. ">65 ACI5AB2C5B =5>?@545;Q==>ABL 2 >F5=:5 G0AB>BK B0:8E 8<?0:B>2, 8 >F5=:8 A>AB>OB >B >4=>3> A>1KB8O 2 10000 ;5B (=081>;55 B8?8G=0O >F5=:0) 4> 100000 ;5B. "01;.2 >7<>6=K5 MDD5:BK 8<?0:B0. 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M. 0==K5 ?> :>;LF0< 45@52L52 ?>:07K20NB =0 2=570?=>5 :;8<0B8G5A:CN ?5@5<5=C 3;>10;L=>3> <0AHB010, A>?@>2>6405<CN ?5@8>4>< ACE>9 <3;K ?@>BO6Q==>ABLN 12-18 <5AOF52. 8:0:8E B8?8G=KE A;54>2 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 0:B82=>AB8 =5 >1=0@C65=> 2 :5@=0E ;L40 70 MB>B ?5@8>4. -B> A>1KB85  8 ?>E>655, 8<52H55 <5AB> 2 2345 3>4C 4> =.M.  ?> ?@54?>;>65=8N Baillie (1994, 1999)  25@>OB=>, 1K;> A2O70=> A 8<?0:B>< :><5BK. -B0 A8BC0F8O 1K;0 ?@><>45;8@>20=0 Rigby et al. 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">G=> B0:65, >F5=:0 G0AB>BK AB>;:=>25=8O 5<;8 A 0:B82=K<8 :><5B0<8 2 7 :< 480<5B@>< >F5=8205BAO 8=>340 :0: 1 @07 2 3 <8;;80@40 ;5B, 8 B5< =5 <5=55 =87:>0:B82=0O :><5B0 B0:>3> @07<5@0 IRAS-Araki-Alcock ?@>H;0 =0 @0AAB>O=88 750 @048CA>2 5<;8 2 1983 3>4C, GB> 1>;55 A>3;0AC5BAO A G0AB>B>9 8<?0:B>2 2 200 @07 1>;LH59. Hughes (2003) 8AA;54>20; @0A?@545;5=85 1;87:8E ?@>;QB>2 8725AB=KE NEO, ?@>;5B0NI8E <8<> 5<;8, 8A?>;L7>202 4;O A2>8E 8AA;54>20=89 2A5 8725AB=K5 A1;865=8O 2 2002 3>4C. = >1=0@C68;, GB> 8<?0:BK :;0AA0 "C=3CA:8 4>;6=K A;CG0BLAO @07 2 300 ;5B, 0 4;O 1000-<530B>==>3> :;0AA0 @071@>A A@>:>2 A>AB02;O5B 500-5000 ;5B. -B0 =075<=0O ?@>25@:0 >A=>20=0 =0 =51>;LH>< :>;8G5AB25 =5402=8E A1;865=89, => ?>:07K205B, GB> 2AQ 5IQ 8<55BAO 7=0G8B5;L=0O =5>?@545;Q==>ABL 2 >F5=:0E G0AB>BK 8<?0:B>2 (Asher et al., 2005). :>=G0B5;L=0O =075<=0O ?@>25@:0 4>;6=0 1KBL, :>=5G=>, =0945=0 =0 75<;5. Courty et al. (2005), 2 A5@88 45B0;L=KE A548<5=B0;>38G5A:8E 8AA;54>20=89 >1=0@C68;8 A2845B5;LAB20 H8@>:>3> @0A?@>AB@0=5=8O 3>@OG8E, <5;:>48A?5@A=KE 2K1@>A>2 ?> 2A59 B@>?8G5A:>9 D@8:5, ;86=5<C >AB>:C 8 0?04=>9 788, :>B>@K5 >=0 40B8@C5B 2600-2300 4> =.M. 8 A2O7K205B @57:8<8 87<5=5=8O<8 ?@8@>4=>9 A@54K 2 MB>B ?5@8>4. Abbott et al. (2005), 8AA;54>202H85 :5@=K ;L40 87 0?04=>9 =B0@:B84K, ?>;CG8;8 <=>65AB2> 40==KE, :>B>@K5 >=8 =0H;8 A>3;0ACNI8<8AO A 8<?0:B=K< 2K1@>A>< 87 24 :8;><5B@>2>3> :@0B5@0 Mahuika =0 N6=>< H5;LD5 >2>9 5;0=488. -B8 ?>A;54=85 0=><0;88 40B8@CNBAO >:>;> 1443 3>40 =.M., 8 1>;LH>9 8<?0:B 2 AB>;L =5402=55 2@5<O :065BAO >G5=L <0;>25@>OB=K<, ?>A:>;L:C 53> MDD5:BK 4>;6=K 1K;8 1K ?>2A5<5AB=> >ICI0BLAO; A 4@C3>9 AB>@>=K, 45?>78BK <530FC=0<8 2KA>B>9 130 <5B@>2 2 Jervis Bay 2 2AB@0;88 40B8@CNBAO 145050 3>4>< =0H59 M@K. -B8 =0?@02;5=8O 8AA;54>20=89 O2;ONBAO 4>2>;L=> =>2K<8, 8 2AQ 5IQ 4>;6=K 1KBL ?>25@3=CBK BI0B5;L=><C :@8B8G5A:><C 0=0;87C; 8 5A;8 >=8 53> 2K45@60B, <>65B 1KBL A45;0= 2K2>4 > B><, GB> <K 682Q< 2 ?5@8>4 2KA>:>3> @8A:0. 6. 5>?@545;Q==>AB8 #<=>60O <0;CN 25@>OB=>ABL 8<?0:B0 =0 53> 7=0G8B5;L=K5 ?>A;54AB28O, <>6=> >1=0@C68BL, GB> C@>25=L C3@>7K, ?@8E>4OI89AO =0 >4=>3> G5;>25:0, A@02=8< A C@>2=O<8 @8A:0 2>74CH=KE ?CB5H5AB289 8 B><C ?>4>1=>3>. > 2 >B;8G85 >B MB8E >1KG=KE @8A:>2, C3@>70 8<?0:B0 =5 8<55B 25@E=53> ?@545;0: 1>;LH>9 8<?0:B <>65B C=8GB>68BL 5<;N. -DD5:BK :>A<8G5A:>3> 70?K;5=8O 3>@074> <5=55 ?>=OB=K 8 87CG5=K, 2 =8E >BACBAB2C5B 4@0<0 1>;LH>3>, 8A?5?5;ONI53> A>1KB8O, 8 8E B@C4=> 8AA;54>20BL; >4=0:> 87 MB>3> =5 A;54C5B, GB> 2 A<KA;5 G0AB>BK 8 ?>A;54AB289 >=8 8<5NB <5=LH55 7=0G5=85. %>BO :>=F5?F8O 5<;8, :0: ?;0=5BK, =5?@5@K2=> ?>425@30NI59AO 1><10@48@>2:5 87 :>A<>A0, =5 =>20, B>;L:> 2 ?>A;54=85 20 ;5B >=0 AB0;0 G5<-B> 2@>45 <59=AB@8<0, 8 2 =59 >AB0NBAO :>;8G5AB25==K5 @0AE>645=8O 8 >1;0AB8 @07=>3;0A89. K =5 7=05<, :C40 45205BAO >A=>2=0O <0AA0 25I5AB20, :>B>@0O 2E>48B 2 3@C??C :><5B 0;;5O 87 >1;0:0 >@B0, 8 2?>;=5 2>7<>6=>, GB> 7=0G8B5;L=>5 :>;8G5AB2> =5>AB0=>28<KE GQ@=KE B5; ?@>?CI5=> 2 =01;N45=8OE. @09=5 B@C4=> :0@B>3@0D8@>20BL ?>?C;OF8N B0:8E :><5B-=52848<>:, ?>A:>;L:C MB8 B5;0 =0E>4OBAO =0 >@18B0E A 2KA>:8< M:AF5=B@8A8B5B>< 8 1>;LHCN G0ABL 2@5<5=8 ?@>2>4OB 70 >@18B>9 0@A0. 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F5;LN :;0AA8D8F8@>20BL 2C;:0=8G5A:85 8725@65=8O 8 8E ?>B5=F80;L=K5 MDD5:BK =0 0B<>AD5@C, Newhall and Self (1982) ?@54;>68;8 H:0;C A8;K 8725@65=89, 8=45:A 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 0:B82=>AB8, VEI, >A=>20==K9 =0 >1JQ<5 8725@3=CBKE ?@>4C:B>2 (8 =0 2KA>B5 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 M@C?B82=>9 :>;>==K). VEI <>65B 1KBL >B VEI=0 (4;O AB@>3> =5 M:A?;>782=KE 8725@65=89) 4> VEI=8 (4;O M:A?;>782=KE 8725@65=89, A>740NI8E ~1012 :C1 <. ?@>4C:B>2 2C;:0=8G5A:8E 8725@65=89). !:>@>ABL 8725@65=89 ?@8 VEI=8 <>65B 1KBL 1>;LH5, G5< 10**6 :C1.</A5:. (Ninkovich et al., 1978a, 1978b). 725@65=8O B0:65 @07;8G0NBAO ?> :>;8G5AB2C 1>30BKE A5@>9 307>2, 2KA2>1>6405<KE 2 D>@<5 AB@0B>AD5@=KE 0M@>7>;59. "0:8< >1@07><, A>45@60=85 A5@K 2 <03<5, AB5?5=L 453070F88 8 2KA>B0 M@C?B82=>9 :>;>==K O2;ONBAO 206=K<8 D0:B>@0<8 :;8<0B8G5A:8E MDD5:B>2 8725@65=8O. (Palais and Sigurdsson, 1989; Rampino and Self, 1984). AB>@8G5A:8 8725AB=K5 8725@65=8O A VEI >B 3 4> 6 (B> 5ABL A >1JQ<>< 8725@3=CB>3> <0B5@80;0 >B <1 :C1. :<. 4> =5A:>;L:8E 45AOB:>2 :C1.:<.) A>74020;8 AB@0B>AD5@=K5 >1;0:0 0M@>7>;59 <0AA>9 4> =5A:>;L:8E 45AOB:>2 <530B>==. -B8 8725@65=8O, 2:;NG0NI85 "0<1>@0 1815 8 @0:0B0C 1883, ?@825;8 : >E;0645=8N 5<;8 =0 =5A:>;L:> 45AOBKE 4>;59 3@04CA0 &5;LA8O. (Rampino and Self, 1984). 081>;55 =5402=89 ?@8<5@ B0:>3> @>40  8725@65=85 8=0BC1> 1991 =0 $8;8??8=0E. (Graf et al., 1993; Hansen et al., 1996). C;:0=8G5A:85 AC?5@8725@65=8O >?@545;ONBAO :0: 8725@65=8O, :>B>@K5 2 45AOB:8 8;8 A>B=8 @07 A8;L=55, G5< 8AB>@8G5A:8 8725AB=K5 8725@65=8O 8 4>AB830NB A8;K VEI=8 8 (Mason et al., 2004; Rampino, 2002; Rampino et al., 1988; Sparks et al., 2005). !C?5@8725@65=8O >1KG=> A>740NB :0;L45@K, 8 1>;55 G5< 20 <5AB AC?5@8725@65=89 1K;> >1=0@C65=> 2 !525@=>9 <5@8:5, .6=>9 <5@8:5, B0;88, =4>=5788, $8;8??8=0E, /?>=88, =0 0<G0B:5 8 2 >2>9 5;0=488. 5B A><=5=8O, GB> 5ABL 8 4@C385, 5IQ =5>B:@KBK5 <5AB0 AC?5@8725@65=89, 8<52H8E <5AB> 2 ?>A;54=85 <8;;8>=K ;5B. (Sparks etal., 2005). >74=5-;59AB>F5=>2>5 8725@65=85 ">10 =0 !C<0B@5 2 =4>=5788 1K;> >4=8< 87 25;8G09H8E 2C;:0=8G5A:8E A>1KB89 2 35>;>38G5A:>9 8AB>@88 (Ninkovich et al., 1978a, 1978b; Rampino and Self, 1993a; Rose and Chesner, 1990). B=>A8B5;L=> =51>;LH>9 2>7@0AB 8 8A:;NG8B5;L=K9 @07<5@ 8725@65=8O 2 ">10 45;05B 53> 206=K< ?@8<5@>< 4;O 87CG5=8O 2>7<>6=KE MDD5:B>2 27@K2=>3> 2C;:0=87<0 =0 3;>10;L=CN 0B<>AD5@C 8 :;8<0B. (Oppenheimer, 2002; Rampino and Self, 1992, 1993a; Rampino etal., 1988; Sparks etal., 2005).  >B=>H5=88 A>1KB89 2 ">10 C =0A 5ABL 40==K5 ?> =0?>;=5=8N :0;L45@K, >B;>65=8O< ?8@>:;0AB8G5A8E ?>B>:>2 8 :>;8G5AB20 2K?02H59 B5D@K. >259H85 40==K5 ?> M:>;>38G5A:8< ?>A;54AB28O< AC?5@8725@65=89 ?>4B25@640NB 8A:;NG8B5;L=CN 25;8G8=C :;8<0B8G5A:>3> 2>7459AB28O 8725@65=8O ">1K, ?@8254H53> : 7=0G8B5;L=K< 87<5=5=8O< >:@C60NI59 A@54K 8 G5;>25G5A:>9 ?>?C;OF88. 2. ;8O=8O AC?5@8725@65=8O =0 0B<>AD5@C. 725@65=85 ">1K 1K;> 40B8@>20=> @07=K<8 <5B>40<8, =0?@8<5@, K/Ar <5B>4 40QB 73,500 3500 ;5B =0704 (Chesner et al., 1991). B;>65=8O ?5?;0 ">1K >1=0@C6820NBAO 2 :5@=0E A <>@A:>3> 4=0 2 =489A:>< >:50=5 8 .6=>-:8B09A:>< <>@5. (Huang et al., 2001; Shultz et al., 2002; Song et al., 2000). -B8 >B;>65=8O ?5?;0 M:2820;5=B=K ?> >1JQ<C 800 :C1.:<. B2Q@4>9 ?>@>4K. (Chesner etal., 1991). B;>65=8O ?8@>:;0AB8G5A:8E ?>B>:>2 =0 !C<0B@5 8<5NB >1JQ< ?@8<5@=> 2 2000 :C1.:<. (Chesner etal., 1991; Rose and Chesner, 1990). -B> 40QB M:2820;5=B B2Q@4>9 ?>@>4K 4;O 2A53> 8725@65=8O ?@8<5@=> 2 2800 :C1. :<. Woods and Wohletz (1991) >F5=8;8 2KA>BC M@C?B82=KE >1;0:>2 ">1K 2 32 5 km, 0 2@5<O 2K?045=8O ?5?;0 =04 =489A:8< >:50=><  2 425 =545;8 8;8 <5=LH5. (Ledbetter and Sparks, 1979). KA2>1>645=85 ;5BCG8E A>548=5=89 A5@K 8<55B 8A:;NG8B5;L=>5 7=0G5=85 4;O :;8<0B8G5A:>3> 2>7459AB28O 8725@65=8O, B0: :0: 2 @57C;LB0B5 2>7=8:0NB 0M@>7>;8 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK 2 AB@0B>AD5@5 (Rampino and Self, 1984). %>BO A>45@60=85 A5@K 2 @8>;8B>2KE <03<0E 2 F5;>< =87:>5, 1>;LH>9 8725@3=CBK9 >1JQ< 4>AB0B>G5=, GB>1K ?@825AB8 : 1>;LH><C 2K1@>AC ;5BCG8E 25I5AB2. 0 >A=>20=88 87CG5=8O :>=F5=B@0F89 A5@K 2 45?>78B0E ">1K, Rose and Chesner (1990) >F5=8;8, GB> ?@8<5@=> 3 x 1015 3@ H2S/SO2 (M:2820;5=B=> 1 x 1016 g 0M@>7>;59 H2SO4) <>3;> 2KA2>1>48BAO 87 8725@3=CB>9 <03<K. >;8G5AB2> <5;:>48A?5@A=>3> ?5?;0 8 0M@>7>;59 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK, :>B>@K5 <>3;8 1KBL 2K1@>H5=K ">1>9, 1K;> >F5=5=> =57028A8<> =0 >A=>20=88 40==KE <5=LH8E 8AB>@8G5A:8E 8725@65=89 (Rampino and Self, 1992). > MB8< >F5=:0<, A25@E8725@65=85 ">10 <>3;> A>740BL 2?;>BL 4> to 2 x 1016 3. <5;:>48A?5@A=>9 ?K;8 8 ?@8<5@=> 1.5 x 1015 3. 0M@>7>;59 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK. $878G5A:85 8 E8<8G5A:85 ?@>F5AAK 2 ?;>B=>< 0M@>7>;L=>< >1;0:5 <>3CB 459AB2>20BL A0<>>3@0=8G820NI8< >1@07><, 7=0G8B5;L=> C<5=LH0O :>;8G5AB2> 0M@>7>;59 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK (Rampino and Self, 1982; Pinto et al., 1989). A?>;L7CO >4=><5@=CN <8:@>D878G5A:CN 8 D>B>E8<8G5A:CN <>45;L 0M@>7>;59, 8=B> (1989) ?>:070;, GB> 2 0M@>7>;L=>< >1;0:5, A>45@60I5< 1014 3@. SO2 206=CN @>;L 83@0N :>=45=A0F8O 8 :>03C;OF8O, :>B>@K5 ?@82>4OB : 2>7=8:=>25=8N 1>;55 :@C?=KE G0AB8F, :>B>@K5 8<5NB <5=LH89 >?B8G5A:89 MDD5:B =0 548=8FC <0AAK, 8 1KAB@55 2K?040NB 87 0B<>AD5@K. 4=0:>, <0:A8<0;L=>5 :>;8G5AB2> ;5BCG8E A>548=5=89 A5@K, :>B>@>5 >=8 <>45;8@>20;8, 1K;> 2 x 1014 3@. SO2, 8 =5B =8:0:8E 40==KE >B=>A8B5;L=> ?>2545=8O 1>;LH8E :>;8G5AB2 0M@>7>;59 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK 2 1>;55 G5< 2 10 @07 ?;>B=KE >1;0:0E. @C3>5 2>7<>6=>5 >3@0=8G5=85 :>;8G5AB20 0M@>7>;59  MB> :>;8G5AB2> 4>ABC?=>9 2>4K 2 AB@0B>AD5@5, =5>1E>48<>9 4;O ?@52@0I5=8O SO2 2 H2SO4. Stothers et al. (1986) ?>AG8B0;8, GB> 4 x 1015 3@. 2>4K 4>ABC?=> 2 AB@0B>AD5@5, 8 8725@65=85 ">1K <>3;> 4>1028BL BC40 5.4 x 1017 3@. H2O (Rose and Chesner, 1990), G53> 1>;55 G5< 4>AB0B>G=>, GB>1K ?@52@0B8BL A5@>A>45@60I85 307K 2 0M@>7>;8 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK. A:;NG8B5;L=0O A8;0 8725@65=8O ">1K A45;0;> 53> 5AB5AB25==K< ?@54<5B>< 87CG5=8O A ?><>ILN 0=0;870 :5@=>2 ?>;O@=>3> ;L40. AA;54>20=8O :5@=>2 ;L40 87 ?@>1K GISP2 2 !0<<8B5, @5=;0=48O, ?>:070;8 H5AB8;5B=89 ?5@8>4 ?>2KH5==>9 :>=F5=B@0F88 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 A5@K, 40B8@CNI89AO 71,100 5000 8 A2O70==K5 A 8725@65=85< 2 ">10 (Zielinski et al., 1996a, 1996b). 03=8BC40 MB>3> 2A?;5A:0 A>45@60=8O A5@K O2;O5BAO A0<>9 1>;LH>9 70 ?>A;54=85 110000 ;5B ?> @57C;LB0B0< GISP2. Zielinski 8 4@. (1996a) >F5=8;8, GB> ?>;=>5 AC<<0@=>5 0B<>AD5@=>5 A>45@60=85 H2SO4 70 ?@81;878B5;L=> 6-;5B=89 ?5@8>4 =0E>48BAO 2 ?@545;0E >B 0.7 4> 4.4 x 10**15 3@, GB> 2 F5;>< A>3;0AC5BAO A ?@8254Q==K<8 2KH5 >F5=:0<8 =0 >A=>20=88 2C;:0=>;>38G5A:8E B5E=8: 8 A@02=5=8O A <5=LH8<8 8725@65=8O<8. (Rampino and Self, 1992,1993a; Rose and Chesner, 1990). (F5=:0 :>;8G5AB20 =0E>4OI8EAO 2 0B<>AD5@5 (aerosol loadings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oillard and Mook, 1982). "0:8< >1@07><, 8=D>@<0F8O 87 :5@=>2 ;L40 A2845B5;LAB2C5B, GB> A;54 >B ">1K >1=0@C68205BAO 2 ?5@8>4 ?5@5E>40 >B BQ?;>3> <56;54=8:>2>3> :;8<0B0 8 ?@54H5AB2>20;AO 8 ?>A;54>20;AO @57:8<8 :;8<0B8G5A:8<8 >AF8;;OF8O<8, :>B>@K5 ?@54H5AB2>20;8 =0G0;C ?>A;54=53> 1>;LH>3> >;545=5=8O. (Zielinski et al., 1996a, 1996b). 3. C;:0=8G5A:0O 78<0. >A:>;L:C ">10  2C;:0=, ;560I89 =0 =87:8E H8@>B0E, B> ?5?5; 8 8A?0@5=8O 1K;8 1K 21@>H5=K 2 >10 !525@=>5 8 .6=>5 ?>;CH0@8O (Rampino et al., 1988), , E>BO 2@5<O 3>40, :>340 ?@>87>H;> 8725@65=85, =58725AB=>. F5=:8 >?B8G5A:8E MDD5:B>2 0M@>7>;59 ?@81;878B5;L=> M:2820;5=B=K >F5=:0< >?B8G5A:>9 ?@>7@0G=>AB8 >1;0:>2 4K<0 (Turco et al., 1990), (:>B>@K5 =0E>4OBAO 2 ?@545;0E >F5=>:, 8A?>;L7C5<KE 2 AF5=0@8OE O45@=>9 78<K: 7=0G8B5;L=KE 2K1@>A>2 ?5?;0 87 3>@OI8E 3>@>4A:8E 8 8=4CAB@80;L=KE @09>=>2 ?>A;5 O45@=>9 2>9=K.) %>BO :;8<0B8G5A:85 CA;>28O 8 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>ABL O45@=>9 78<K 1K;8 ?@54<5B>< >1H8@=KE 4510B>2, A8<C;OF88, ?@>254Q==K5 Turco 8 4@. (1990) ?@54A:07K20NB, GB> =075<=K5 B5<?5@0BC@K =0 the 3O-7ON H8@>B0E C?04CB =0 5-15 3@04CA>2 =865 =>@<K, ?@8GQ< =0 A@54=8E H8@>B0E 2 ?5@2K5 <5AOFK 1C4CB B5<?5@0BC@K =865 =C;O. E;0645=85 ?>25@E=>AB8 >:50=0 =0 2-6 ! <>65B ?@>4;8BLAO =5A:>;L:> ;5B, 8 ?@8ACBAB285 A068 2 0B<>AD5@5 2 B5G5=85 1-3 ;5B <>65B ?@825AB8 : 1>;55 4;8B5;L=><C (45AOB8;5B=5<C) >E;0645=8N, 2 ?5@2CN >G5@54L 70 AGQB :;8<0B8G5A:8E >1@0B=KE A2O759, 2:;NG0NI8E C25;8G5=85 A=56=>3> ?>:@KB8O 8 ?;>I0459 ;L40, 87<5=5=8O 0;L154> 75<=>9 ?>25@E=>AB8 8 87<5=5=8O B5<?5@0BC@K ?>25@E=>AB8 >:50=0 (Rampino and Ambrose, 2000). 725@65=85 7=0G8B5;L=KE :>;8G5AB2 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 ?K;8 2 AB@0B>AD5@C 1;03>40@O AC?5@8725@65=8N <0AHB01>2 ">1K <>65B ?@825AB8 : ?>4>1=><C =5<54;5==><C >E;0645=8N ?>25@E=>AB8, ?@8254O : 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 78<5 (Rampino and Self, 1992; Rampino et al., 1988). C;:0=8G5A:0O ?K;L, ?>-2848<><C, 8<55B <5=LH55 2@5<O 687=8 2 0B<>AD5@5 (3-6 <5AOF52), G5< A060 (Turco et al., 1990), 8 @0A?@>AB@0=O5BAO 87 B>G5G=>3> 8AB>G=8:0, => 2C;:0=8G5A:0O ?K;L 2K1@0AK205BAO 3>@074> 2KH5 2 AB@0B>AD5@C, 8 2 A8;C MB>3> ?5?5; ">1K <>3 8<5BL 2A5<8@=>5 2>7459AB285, =5A<>B@O =0 :>@>B:>5 2@5<O 687=8. !2845B5;LAB2>< H8@>:>3> @0A?@>AB@0=5=8O ?5?;0 ">1K O2;ONBAO >7Q@=K5 >B;>65=8O 2 =488, 345 ?5@5@01>B0==K9 ?5?5; ">1K AD>@<8@>20; >B;>65=8O B>;I8=>9 4> 3 <, 8 H8@>:> @0A?@>AB@0=Q==K5 >B;>65=8O ?5?;0 2 =489A:>< >:50=5 8 .6=>-8B09A:>< <>@5. (Acharya and Basu, 1993; Huang et al., 2001; Shane et al., 1995). !2845B5;LAB2>< 1KAB@>3> 8 6QAB:>3> >E;0645=8O 2 A8;C ?@O<KE MDD5:B>2 >1;0:>2 2C;:0=8G5A:>3> ?5?;0 O2;ONBAO =01;N45=8O ?>A;54AB289 8725@65=8O "0<1>@K 2 1815 3>4C. 04@0A 2 =488 ?5@568; @57:>5 ?045=85 B5<?5@0BC@K 2 B5G5=85 ?>A;54=59 =545;8 0?@5;O 1815, 2 B> 2@5<O, :>340 >B=>A8B5;L=> ?@>E;04=K9 2>74CE 8 0M@>7>;L=>5 >1;0:> A "0<1>@K (10-11 0?@5;O) <>3;> 1KBL =04 =8<. #B@5==85 B5<?5@0BC@K C?0;8 A 11C 2 ?>=545;L=8: 4> -3C 2 ?OB=8FC (Stothers, 1984a). >4>1=K9, => 1>;55 A;01K9 MDD5:B, 8<5; <5AB>, :>340 >1;0:> ?K;8 >B 8725@65=8O 3>@K !2OB>9 ;5=K 2 1980 3>4C ?@>H;> =04 ?>425B@5==K<8 >1;0ABO<8 (Robock and Mass, 1982). K1@>A 2 AB@0B>AD5@C ;5BCG8E A>548=5=89 A5@K (>1015g), 8 2@5<O, =5>1E>48<>5 4;O D>@<8@>20=8O 8 @0A?@>AB@0=5=8O 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 H2SO4 <>65B ?@825AB8 : ?@>4>;68B5;L=><C ?5@8>4C C25;8G5==>9 0B<>AD5@=>9 =5?@>7@0G=>AB8 8 >E;0645=8N ?>25@E=>AB8. 54O=K5 :5@=K A2845B5;LAB2CNB > B><, GB> 2 AB@0B>AD5@5 =0E>48;>AL >B 1014 4> 1015 3@. A5@=>9 :8A;>BK 2 B5G5=85 H5AB8 ;5B ?>A;5 8725@65=8O (Zielinski et al., 1996a). -B> A>3;0AC5BAO A 2KG8A;5=8O<8 Pope 8 4@. (1994), ?@54A:07K20NI8<8 2@5<O >:8A;5=8O (2@5<O, =5>1E>48<>5 4;O ?@52@0I5=8O 40==>3> :>;8G5AB20 A5@K 2 0M@>7>;8 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK) >B 4 4> 17 ;5B, 8 2@5<O 48DDC788 (2@5<O, =5>1E>48<>5 4;O C40;5=8O =5>:8A;5==>3> SO2 1;03>40@O 48DDC788 2 B@>?>AD5@C) >B 4 4> 7 ;5B 4;O <0AA A5@K <564C 1015 8 1016 g. ;O 0B<>AD5@=KE 2K1@>A>2 B0:8E <0AHB01>2 2@5<O 48DDC788 O2;O5BAO MDD5:B82=K< 2@5<5=5< 687=8 >1;0:0, ?>A:>;L:C @575@2C0@ SO2 8AG5@?K205BAO 4> B>3>, :0: >:8A;5=85 7025@H8BAO. A;8 A2O7L <564C >E;0645=85< !525@=>3> ?>;CH0@8O 8 :>;8G5AB2>< 0M@>7>;59 >B 1>;LH8E 8725@65=89 O2;O5BAO ?@81;878B5;L=> ;8=59=>9, B> B>340 <0AHB018@>20=85 =0 >A=>20=88 40==KE >1 8725@65=88 1815 3>40 "0<1>@K 40AB ?@8<5@=> 3.5C 3@04CA>2 >E;0645=8O 4;O 2A53> ?>;CH0@8O ?>A;5 ">1K (Rampino and Self, 1993a). >4>1=K< 65 >1@07>< M<?8@8G5A:0O 7028A8<>ABL <564C 2KA2>1>645=85< SO2 8 :;8<0B8G5A:>9 @50:F859 (Palais and Sigurdsson, 1989) ?@54?>;0305B, GB> A=865=85 B5<?5@0BC@K ?> 2A5< ?>;CH0@8N A>AB02;O;> ?@8<5@=> 4 1C. -@C?B82=K5 >1;0:0 >B 8AB>@8G5A:8 8725AB=KE 8725@65=89 1K;8 A;8H:>< :>@>B:>682CI8<8, GB>1K ?>=878BL B@>?>AD5@=K5 B5<?5@0BC@K 4> =>2>3> CAB>9G82>3> C@>2=O (Pollack et al., 1993), >4=0:>, ?>-2848<><C, 4>;3>682CI85 0M@>7>;8 ">1K <>3;8 ?@825AB8 : B><C, GB> 87<5=5=8O B5<?5@0BC@K B@>?>AD5@K AB0;8 2 7=0G8B5;L=>9 AB5?5=8 4>;3>2@5<5==K<8. Huang et al. (2001) A<>3;8 >1=0@C68BL 2708<>A2O7L ?5?;0 ">1K 8 A=865=8O B5<?5@0BC@K ?>25@E=>AB8 .6=>-8B09A:>3> <>@O =0 1C, :>B>@>5 ?@>4>;60;>AL 1000 ;5B. A;8 273;O=CBL =0 =5A:>;L:> <5=LH55 =5402=55 A25@E8725@65=85, 8<52H55 <5AB> 2 0<?0=88 2 B0;88 37000 ;5B =0704 (150 :C1.:< <03<K 8725@3=CB>), B> 284=>, GB> >=> A>2?0;> A >74=5-;59AB>F5=>2K<8 18>-:C;LBC@=K<8 87<5=5=8O<8, :>B>@K5 8<5;8 <5AB> :0: 2, B0: 8 70 ?@545;0<8 !@54875<=><>@A:>3> @538>=0. -B> 2:;NG05B 2 A51O :0: ?5@5E>4 >B :C;LBC@ !@54=53> : 5@E=5<C ?0;5>;8BC 8 70<5=C =50=45@B0;LF52 A>2@5<5==K<8 Homo sapiens (Fedele et al., 2002). 4. >7<>6=K5 ?>A;54AB28O A25@E8725@65=8O 4;O >:@C60NI59 A@54K. >7459AB285 A25@E8725@65=8O ">10 =0 :;8<0B 8 >:@C60NICN A@54C, 2>7<>6=>, =0AB>;L:> ?@52>AE>4OB 2>7459AB28O >B =5402=8E 8AB>@8G5A:8 8725AB=KE 8725@65=89 (e.g., Hansen et al., 1992; Stothers, 1996), GB> =5;L7O 8A?>;L7>20BL MB8 8AB>@8G5A:85 A2845B5;LAB20 8 :;8<0B8G5A:85 <>45;8 MB8E 8725@65=89 2 :0G5AB25 C<5=LH5==KE 0=0;>389 C=8:0;L=KE A>1KB89 2 ">10 (Rampino and Self, 1993a; Rampino et al., 1988). 07;8G=K5 8AA;54>20=8O @57:8E 87<5=5=89 ?@>7@0G=>AB8 0B<>AD5@K 8 2;8O=8O >E;0645=8O :;8<0B0 =0 >:@C60NICN A@54C 8 687=L 2K?>;=O;8AL, >4=0:>, 2 A2O78 A 8AA;54>20=8O<8 O45@=>9 78<K 8 2;8O=8O ?045=89 0AB5@>84>2 =0 5<;N. (e.g., Green et al., 1985; Harwell, 1984; Tinus and Roddy, 1990), 8 =5:>B>@K5 87 =8E <>3CB 1KBL @5;520=B=K 8 2 A;CG05 8725@65=8O ">1K. 20 206=59H8E MDD5:B0 =0 @0AB8B5;L=>ABL 2 @57C;LB0B5 A=865=8O ?@>7@0G=>AB8 0B<>AD5@K  MB> C<5=LH5=85 C@>2=O >25IQ==>AB8 8 A=865=85 B5<?5@0BC@K. !=865=85 C@>2=59 >A25IQ==>AB8, >68405<>5 2 @57C;LB0B5 8725@65=8O ">1K, 8<55B @071@>A >B ?>BCA:=5=8O !>;=F0 (~75% A>;=5G=>3> A25B0 ?>ABC?05B), :0: MB> 8<5;> <5AB> ?>A;5 8725@65=8O "0<1>@K 1815, 4> C@>2=59 ?0A<C@=>3> 4=O (~10% A>;=5G=>3> A25B0 ?>ABC?05B). -:A?5@8<5=BK A <>;>4>9 B@02>9 ?>:070;8, GB> ?@8 ?045=88 C@>2=O >A25IQ==>AB8 4> 10 %, D>B>A8=B57 ?0405B =0 85 % (van Kuelan et al., 1975), 8 D>B>A8=B57 B0:65 ?0405B ?@8 A=865=88 B5<?5@0BC@K (Redman, 1974). !>?@>B82;O5<>ABL @0AB5=89 : =5>1KG=K< E>;>40< 7=0G8B5;L=> @07;8G05BAO. #A;>28O 2 B@>?8G5A:8E 7>=0E =081>;55 @5;520=B=K ?> >B=>H5=8N @0==8< G5;>25G5A:8< ?>?C;OF8O< 2 D@8:5. "@>?8G5A:85 ;5A0 >G5=L CO728<K : 70<>@>7:0<, 8 Harwell 8 4@. (1985) CB25@640NB, GB> 70<>@>7:8 2 25G=>75;Q=KE B@>?8G5A:8E ;5A0E 1KAB@> ?@82>4OB : 3815;8 2A5E =075<=KE B:0=59 @0AB5=89. !@54=85 ?@875<=K5 B5<?5@0BC@K 2 B@>?8:0E 2 =0AB>OI89 <><5=B 8<5NB @071@>A 16-24C. !F5=0@88 O45@=>9 78<K ?@54?>;030NB 4;8B5;L=>5 A=865=85 B5<?5@0BC@K =0 3-7C 3@04CA>2 2 M:20B>@80;L=>9 D@8:5 8 :@0B:>2@5<5==>5 ?045=85 B5<?5@0BC@K 2?;>BL 4> 10 3@04CA>2. =>385 B@>?8G5A:85 @0AB5=8O A5@LQ7=> ?>2@5640NBAO ?@8 >E;0645=88 =865 10-15C =0 =5A:>;L:> 4=59 (Greene et al., 1985; Leavitt, 1980). >;LH8=AB2> B@>?8G5A:8E ;5A>2 8<5NB >3@0=8G5==K9 70?0A A5<O=, 8 C A5<O= >1KG=> >BACBAB2C5B A?OI0O D070. >;55 B>3>, 2>7@>645=85 ;5A0 A:;>==> ?>@>640BL ;5A0 >3@0=8G5==>3> @07=>>1@078O, A?>A>1=K5 ?>445@6820BL <5=LH55 :>;8G5AB2> 18><0AAK. (Harwell et al., 1985). 065 4;O ;5A>2 C<5@5==>3> ?>OA0, @07@CH5=8O <>3CB 1KBL >G5=L 7=0G8B5;L=K<8 (Harwell, 1984; Harwell et al., 1985).  F5;><, A?>A>1=>ABL E>@>H> 040?B8@>20==KE 45@52L52 2K45@6820BL =87:85 B5<?5@0BC@K (CAB>9G82>ABL : E>;>4C) 3>@074> 1>;LH5, G5< B@51C5BAO 2 ;N1>9 :>=:@5B=K9 <><5=B 2 3>4C, => ;5A0 <>3CB 1KBL A8;L=> ?>2@5645=K =5>1KG=K<8 8;8 ?@>4>;68B5;L=K<8 =87:8<8 B5<?5@0BC@0<8 2 >?@545;Q==K5 ?5@8>4K 3>40. >45;8@>20=85 ?045=8O B5<?5@0BC@K 78<>9 =0 10 ! ?>:07K205B =57=0G8B5;L=K9 MDD5:B 4;O E;04>AB>9:8E 8 A?OI8E 45@52L52, 2 B> 2@5<O :0: ?>4>1=>5 65 ?045=85 B5<?5@0BC@K =0 10C 2 ?5@8>4 @>AB0 (:>340 CAB>9G82>ABL : E>;>40< >A;015205B) ?@82>48B : 50% 2K<8@0=8N 8 A5@LQ7=K< ?>2@5645=8O< 2K682H8E 45@52L52, GB> ?@82>48B : ?>B5@5 ?> :@09=59 <5@5 >4=>3> 3>40 @>AB0. !8BC0F8O A ;5A0<8, ?5@8>48G5A:8 A1@0AK20NI8<8 ;8AB2C, 1C45B 4065 5IQ EC65, G5< A 25G=>75;Q=K<8, ?>A:>;L:C 2AO 8E ?>;=>ABLN =>20O ;8AB20 1C45B 2 A8;C MB>3> ?>B5@O=0. 0?@8<5@, Larcher 8 Bauer (1981) >?@545;8;8, GB> =86=85 3@0=8FK 4;O D>B>A8=B570 4;O @07;8G=KE @0AB5=89 C<5@5==>9 7>=K A>AB02;ONB >B  1.3 4>  3.9C,, GB> =0E>48BAO 2 B5E 65 ?@545;0E, :0: 8 B5<?5@0BC@K 70<5@70=8O B:0=59 4;O MB8E 65 @0AB5=89. @8 >BACBAB288 045:20B=KE 70?0A>2 ?8I8, 1>;LH8=AB2> 45@52L52 ;5A0 C<5@5==>3> ?>OA0 =5 A<>3CB ?>43>B>28BAO : E>;>40< 2>2@5<O, 8 ?>381=CB 8;8 8A?KB0NB 4>?>;=8B5;L=K5 ?>2@5645=8O 2> 2@5<O @0==8E 70<>@>7:>2 >A5=LN (Tinus and Roddy, 1990). F5=8BL 2;8O=85 AC?5@8725@65=8O ">1K =0 >:50=K 3>@074> B@C4=55.  @538>=0;L=KE @0<:0E, MDD5:BK >B 2K?045=8O 4 3@./:2.A<. ?5?;0 ">1K =0 ?;>I048 5 <;=. :2. :<. =489A:>3> >:50=0 4>;65= 1KBL 7=0G8B5;L=K<. !:>@>ABL >B;>65=8O 07>B0, C3;5@>40 8 !0!7 @57:> 2>7@>A;0 2 ?5@2KE =5A:>;L:8E A0=B8<5B@0E A;>O ?5?;0 ">1K, C:07K20O =0 B>, GB> 2K?045=85 ?5?;0 2KG8AB8;> 2>4=CN :>;>==C >B 1>;LH8=AB20 2725H5==KE (parriculate) >@30=8G5A:8E A>548=5=89 8 :0@1>=0B>2 :0;LF8O (Gilmour et al., 1990). @C3>9 2>7<>6=K9 MDD5:B ?;>B=>3> 0M@>7>;L=>3> >1;0:0  MB> A=865=85 ?@>4C:B82=>AB8 >:50=0. 0?@8<5@, A?CB=8:>2K5 =01;N45=8O ?>A;5 8725@65=8O El Chichon 1982 ?>:070;8 ?>2KH5==CN :>=F5=B@0F8N 0M@>7>;59 =04 @01A:8< <>@5<, 8 MB8 7=0G5=8O :>@@5;8@>20;8 A> A=865=85< ?>25@E=>AB=>9 ?@>4C:B82=>AB8 (?@>O2;O2H59AO G5@57 :>=F5=B@0F8N ?;0=:B>=0) A <0O ?> >:BO1@L MB>3> 3>40 (Strong, 1993). Brock and McClain (1992) ?@54?>;>68;8, GB> ?>=865==0O ?@>4C:B82=>ABL 1K;0 A2O70=0 A 1>;55 A;01K<8, G5< >1KG=>, <CAA>==K<8 25B@0<8, 8 =57028A8<K5 A2845B5;LAB20 3>2>@OB > B><, GB> N3>-70?04=K9 <CAA>= =0G0;AO ?>765 8 70:>=G8;AO @0=LH5 2 B>< 3>4C, 8 GB> 42868<>5 25B@>< !><0;89A:>5 B5G5=85 1K;> 0=>@<0;L=> A;01K<. 0>1>@>B, Genin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agan and Chivas, 1995). 5:>B>@K5 :;8<0B8G5A:85 <>45;8 ?@54?>;030NB 7=0G8B5;L=K5 70ACE8 2 B@>?8G5A:8E >1;0ABOE 2 @57C;LB0B5 >A;01;5=8O ?0AA0B>2/F8@:C;OF88 04;8, 8 2 @57C;LB0B5 >A;01;5=8O A8;K ;5B=8E <CAA>=>2. (e.g., Pittock et al., 1986, 1989; Turco et al., 1990). 0?@8<5@, Pittock 8 4@. (1989) ?@54AB028;8 @57C;LB0BK <>45;8@>20=8O, :>B>@K5 ?>:07K20NB 50% A=865=85 >A04:>2 2 B@>?8G5A:8E 8 <CAA>==KE @538>=0E. 5. !25@E-8725@65=8O 8 G5;>25G5A:0O ?>?C;OF8O. 5402=85 A?>@K > ?@>8AE>645=88 A>2@5<5==KE ;N459 :>=F5=B@8@>20;8AL =0 42CE 0;LB5@=0B82=KE 38?>B570E: (1) <C;LB8@538>=0;L=0O 38?>B570, A>3;0A=> :>B>@>9 >A=>2=K5 ?>4284K =0H53> 2840 @072820;8AL <54;5==> 8 =0 <5AB0E, 8 AE>4AB2> <564C 3@C??0<8 >1JOA=O5BAO ?5@5B5:0=85< 35=>2 8 (2) 38?>B570 > 70<5=5, A>3;0A=> :>B>@>9 @0==85 ?>?C;OF88 1K;8 70<5=5=K >B 30000 4> 100000 ;5B =0704 A>2@5<5==K<8 ;N4L<8, ?@>8AE>482H8<8 87 D@8:8 (Hewitt, 2000; Rogers and Joude, 1995). ;O ?@>25@:8 MB8E 38?>B57 8A?>;L7>20;8AL 35=5B8G5A:85 8AA;54>20=8O. AA;54>20=8O O45@=>9 8 <8B>E>=4@80;L=>9  A>2@5<5==KE G5;>25G5A:8E ?>?C;OF89 ?@825;8 : 70:;NG5=8N, GB> A>2@5<5==K5 ?>?C;OF88 2>7=8:;8 2 D@8:5 8 @0A?@>AB@0=8;8AL ?> 2A5<C !B0@><C !25BC ?@8<5@=> 50 000 20000 ;5B =0704 (Harpending et al., 1993; Jones and Rouhani, 1986; Wainscoat et al., 1986). -B>B 27@K2 ?>?C;OF88, AC4O ?> 2A5<C, ?>A;54>20; 70 @57:8< ?045=85< ?>?C;OF88, :>B>@>5, ?> >F5=:0< Harpending 8 4@. (1993) C<5=LH8;> G5;>25G5A:CN ?>?C;OF8N 4> ?@8<5@=> 500 A?>A>1=KE : @07<=>65=8N 65=I8=, 8;8 4> ?>;=>9 ?>?C;OF88 2 ?@8<5@=> 4000 >A>159 =0 ?@8<5@=> 20000 ;5B.  B> 65 2@5<O, 50=45@B0;LFK, :>B>@K5, 25@>OB=>, 1K;8 ;CGH5 ?@8A?>A>1;5=K : E>;>40<, ?5@5A5;8;8AL 2 @538>= 520=B0, :>340 A>2@5<5==K5 ;N48 53> ?>:8=C;8 (Hewitt, 2000). Harpending 8 4@. (1993) ?@54;>68;8 A2845B5;LAB20 B>3>, GB> <>6=> =0720BL ?@><56CB>G=>9 38?>B57>9 !;01>3> -45<A:>3> !040, > B><, GB> <0;5=L:0O ?>?C;OF8O ?@54:>2 ;N459 @0745;8;0AL =0 87>;8@>20==K5 3@C??K >:>;> 100000 ;5B =0704 8 G5@57 30000 :0640O 87 MB8E ?>?C;OF89 ?@>H;0 G5@57 1CBK;>G=>5 3>@;KH:> 8 ?>A;54CNI55 @0AH8@5=85 2 @07<5@5. Sherry 8 4@. (1994) >F5=8; A@54=55 2@5<O @0AH8@5=8O ?>?C;OF89 >B 65000 4> 30000 ;5B =0704, ?@8GQ< D@8:0=A:>5 @0AH8@5=85, 25@>OB=>, 1K;> A0<K< @0==8<. Ambrose (1998, 2003; A< B0:65 Gibbons, 1993) C:070; =0 B>, GB> 2@5<O A25@E8725@65=8O ">1K ?@81;878B5;L=> A>>B25BAB2C5B ?@54?>;0305<><C 2@5<5=8 1CBK;>G=>3> 3>@;KH:0, 8 2KA:070; 4>304:C, GB> M:>;>38G5A:85 ?>A;54AB28O 8725@65=8O ">1K <>3;8 1KBL =0AB>;L:> A8;L=K<8, GB> <>3;8 ?@825AB8 : @57:><C A?04C ?>?C;OF88 ?@54H5AB25==8:>2 ;N459 (>4=0:> A<. Gathorne-Hardy 8 Harcourt-Smith, 2003 70 ?@>B82>?>;>6=K<8 273;O40<8). Rampino 8 Self (1993a) 8 Rampino 8 Ambrose (2000) ?@8H;8 : 70:;NG5=8N, GB> :;8<0B8G5A:85 MDD5:BK ">1K <>3;8 ?@825AB8 : ?>4;8==>9 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 78<5 8 7=0G8B5;L=><C ?>2@5645=8N A@54K >18B0=8O. 06=> >B<5B8BL, GB> 0=0;87 mtDNA 2>AB>G=KE H8<?0=75 (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) ?>:07K205B @57:>5 A=865=85 ?>?C;OF88 ?@8<5@=> 2 B> 65 2@5<O, GB> 8 G5;>25G5A:>9 ?>?C;OF88 (A<. Rogers and Jorde, 1995). 6. '0AB>B0 A25@E8725@65=89. Decker (1990) ?@54?>;>68;, GB> 5A;8 2A5 8725@65=8O <03=8BC4K 8 2 =5402=5< ?@>H;>< >AB028;8 :0;L45@=K5 AB@C:BC@K, :>B>@K5 1K;8 >1=0@C65=K, B> G0AB>B0 VEI 8 8725@65=89 1C45B ?@8<5@=> 2*10**(-5) 2 3>4, 8;8 ?@8<5@=> >4=> VEI 8 2 50000 ;5B. @5<O 8 <03=8BC4C 2C;:0=8G5A:8E 8725@65=88, >4=0:>, B@C4=> ?@54A:070BL. !B@0B5388 ?@54A:070=8O 2:;NG0NB (1) @0A?>7=020=85 ?0BB5@=>2 8725@65=89 :>=:@5B=KE 2C;:0=>2 (e.g., Godano and Civetta, 1996; Klein, 1982), (2) 0=0;87 ?@5425AB=8:>2 @07;8G=>3> @>40 (e.g., Chouet, 1996; Nazzaro, 1998) (3) 0=0;87 @538>=0;L=>3> 8 3;>10;L=>3> @0A?@545;5=8O 8725@65=89 2 ?@>AB@0=AB25 8 2@5<5=8 (Carr, 1977; Mason et al., 2004; Pyle, 1995), 8 (4) B5>@5B8G5A:85 ?@54A:070=8O, >A=>20==K5 =0 ?>2545=88 <0B5@80;>2 (Voight, 1988; Voight and Cornelius, 1991). %>BO 7=0G8B5;L=K9 ?@>3@5AA 1K; A45;0= 2 :@0B:>A@>G=>< ?@54A:070=88 8725@65=89, =8 >48= <5B>4 =5 >:070;AO 4>AB0B>G=> CA?5H=K< 2 ?@54A:070=88 2@5<5=8 8, GB> 1>;55 206=>, <03=8BC4K 8725@65=8O 8;8 :>=F5=B@0F88 2 <03<5 8 :>;8G5AB20 2K1@>A0 A5@K. !>2@5<5==K5 B5E=>;>388, 2:;NG0NI85 =5?@5@K2=K9 A?CB=8:>2K9 <>=8B>@8=3 307>2KE 2K1@>A>2, B5@<0;L=KE 0=><0;89 8 45D>@<0F89 3@C=B0 (e.g., Alexander, 1991; Walter, 1990) >15I05B C;CGH5=85 ?@>3=>78@>20=8O 8 :>=:@5B=>5 ?@54A:070=85 2C;:0=8G5A:8E A>1KB89, => MDD5:B82=>ABL MB8E B5E=>;>389 2 7=0G8B5;L=>9 AB5?5=8 5IQ =5 ?>4B25@645=0. 0?@8<5@, =5A<>B@O =0 B>, GB> C =0A 5ABL 2000 ;5B =01;N45=89 2C;:0=0 57C289 (Nazzaro, 1998), 8 4;8B5;L=0O 8AB>@8O 53> <>=8B>@8=30 8 =0CG=KE 8AA;54>20=89, ?@54A:070=85 <03=8BC4K 8 2@5<5=8 A;54CNI53> :@C?=>3> 8725@65=8O >AB05BAO ?@>1;5<>9 (Dobran et al., 1994; Lirer et al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oon et al., 1997). 0 MB8< ?>A;54C5B 3>;>4, @0A?@>AB@0=5=85 8=D5:F8>==KE 701>;520=89, @07@CH5=85 8=D@0AB@C:BC@K, A>F80;L=K5 8 ?>;8B8G5A:85 15A?>@O4:8 8 :>=D;8:BK. @54A:070=8O >B=>A8B5;L=> 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 78<K 3>2>@OB > 3;>10;L=>< >E;0645=88 =0 3-5C =0 =5A:>;L:> ;5B 8 @538>=0;L=KE ?>E>;>40=8OE 2?;>BL 4> 15C (Rampino and Self, 1992; Rampino and Ambrose, 2000). -B> <>65B >?CAB>H8BL :@C?=59H85 A5;LA:>E>7O9AB25==K5 @538>=K <8@0. 0?@8<5@, 0780BA:89 C@>609 @8A0 1C45B C=8GB>65= >4=>9 =>GLN A 70<>@>7:0<8 2 B5G5=85 A57>=0 @>AB0 C@>60O.  C<5@5==KE @538>=0E, 345 2K@0I8205BAO 75@=>, ?045=85 A@54=59 <5AB=>9 B5<?5@0BC@K =0 2-3C C=8GB>68B ?@>872>4AB2> ?H5=8FK, 0 ?045=85 =0 3-4C >AB0=>28B 2AQ ?@>872>4AB2> 75@=>2KE 2 0=045. #@>608 =0 0<5@8:0=A:>< !@54=5< 0?045 8 =0 #:@08=5 1C4CB A5@LQ7=> ?>2@5645=K ?045=85< B5<?5@0BC@K. (Harwell and Hutchinson, 1985; Pittock et al., 1986). QAB:85 ?>3>4=K5 CA;>28O 70B@C4=OB 3;>10;L=CN B@0=A?>@B8@>2:C ?@>4C:B>2 ?8B0=8O 8 4@C38E B>20@>2. "0:8< >1@07><, A25@E8725@65=85 <>65B ?>2@548BL 3;>10;L=>5 A5;LA:>5 E>7O9AB2>, ?@8254O : 3>;>4C 8, 2>7<>6=>, : ?0=45<8O< (Stothers, 2000). >;55 B>3>, 1>;LH85 2C;:0=8G5A:85 8725@65=8O <>3CB ?@825AB8 : 4>;3>A@>G=K< :;8<0B8G5A:8< ?5@5<5=0< ?>A@54AB2>< MDD5:B>2 A ?>;>68B5;L=>9 >1@0B=>9 A2O7LN, B0:8E :0: >E;0645=85 ?>25@E=>AB8 >:50=>2, >1@07>20=85 <>@A:>3> ;L40 8;8 C25;8G5=8O =075<=>3> ;L40 (Rampino and Self, 1992, 1993a, 1993b), C4;8=OO 2>AAB0=>2;5=85 ?>A;5 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 78<K. 57C;LB0B>< <>65B 1KBL H8@>:>5 @0A?@>AB@0=5=85 3>;>40, M?845<89, A>F80;L=KE 15A?>@O4:>2, D8=0=A>2K9 :>;;0?A, 8 A5@LQ7=K9 CI5@1 4;O >A=>2 F828;870F88 (Sagan and Turco, 1990; Sparks et al., 2005). 5AB>?>;>65=85 AC?5@8725@65=8O B0:65 <>65B 1KBL 206=K< D0:B>@>< 2 >B=>H5=88 53> @538>=0;L=KE 8 3;>10;L=KE MDD5:B>2. 725@65=85 87 5;;>CAB>C=A:>9 :0;L45@K 2 B5G5=85 ?>A;54=8E 2 <8;;8>=>2 ;5B 2:;NG0;8 2 A51O B@8 AC?5@8725@65=8O. 064>5 87 =8E ?>@>48;> B>;ABK5 >B;>65=8O ?5?;0 =0 B5@@8B>@88 70?04=KE 8 F5=B@0;L=KE !( (A;>9 A?@5AA>20==>3> ?5?;0 B>;I8=>9 0.2 =01;N405BAO =0 @0AAB>O=88 1500 :< >B :0;L45@K; Wood and Kienle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fpnefififcL (10.1) 45 N  MB> G8A;> F828;870F89, A?>A>1=KE : :><<C=8:0F88 2 0;0:B8:5, R* - MB> A@54=OO 2 B5G5=85 2@5<5=8 55 ACI5AB2>20=8O G0AB>B0 D>@<8@>20=8O 72Q74 2 0;0:B8:5, fp - 4>;O 72Q74 A ?;0=5B0@=K<8 A8AB5<0<8; ne  A@54=55 G8A;> ?;0=5B A@548 B0:8E A8AB5<, :>B>@K5 ?@83>4=K 4;O 687=8, fj  4>;O B5E ?;0=5B, =0 :>B>@KE 2>7=8:;0 687=L, fi  4>;O ?;0=5B, =0 :>B>@KE @0728;0AL @07C<=0O 687=L, fc - MB> 4>;O ?;0=5B, =0 :>B>@KE @07C<=0O 687=L 4>AB83;0 :><<C=8:0B82=>9 D07K 8 L  >7=0G05B A@54=55 2@5<O ACI5AB2>20=8O B0:>9 B5E=>;>38G5A:>9 F828;870F88. (Sagan, 1973). %>BO C@02=5=85 @59:0 ?>;57=> 4;O >@30=870F88 @07=KE D0:B>@>2, :>B>@K5 AG8B0NBAO 206=K<8 4;O 2>7=8:=>25=8O 2=575<=>3> 8=B5;;5:B0, @50;L=0O >F5=:0 25;8G8=, 2E>4OI8E 2 C@02=5=85, - B@C4=0. ">;L:> R* E>@>H> 8725AB=> 8 A>AB02;O5B 10 72Q74 2 3>4. F5=:8 N H8@>:> @07=OBAO >B 0 4> 1>;55 G5< 10**8 F828;870F89. (Sagan, 1973). 5402=> 1K;> 4>:070=>, GB> fc and L >3@0=8G5=K 2 G0AB=>AB8, G0AB>B>9 :><5B=KE 8 0AB5@>84=KE AB>;:=>25=89, :>B>@K5 <>3CB >:070BLAO :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8<8 4;O B5E=>;>38G5A:>9 F828;870F88 (Sagan and Ostro, 1994; Chyba, 1997). !>2@5<5==0O G5;>25G5A:0O F828;870F8O, 2 7=0G8B5;L=>9 AB5?5=8 7028AOI0O >B 5653>4=KE C@>6052, CO728<0 : 8<?0:B=>9 78<5, :>B>@0O <>65B 2>7=8:=CBL 1;03>40@O 2K1@>H5==>9 2 AB@0B>AD5@C ?K;8 ?@8 ?045=88 0AB5@>84>2 1>;55 1 :<. 2 480<5B@5 (Chapman and Morrison, 1994; Toon et al, 1997). "0:>9 8<?0:B 2KA2>1>48B ?@8<5@=> 1O5-1O6 Mt B@>B8;>2>3> M:2820;5=B0 M=5@388, A>740AB :@0B5@ 20-40 :< 480<5B@>< 8 A>740AB 3;>10;L=>5 >1;0:> <0AA>9 1000 " AC1<8:@>==>9 ?K;8 (Toon et al., 1997). Covey et al. (1990) ?@>25;8 3-D <>45;8@>20=85 :;8<0B0 4;O 3;>10;L=>3> ?K;52>3> >1;0:0, A>45@60I53> AC1<8:@>==K5 G0AB8FK A <0AA>9, A>>B25BAB2CNI59 <0AA5 >1;0:0, :>B>@>5 A>740AB 8<?0:B A A8;>9 6E10**5 ".  MB>9 <>45;8 3;>10;L=K5 B5<?5@0BC@K ?040NB ?@8<5@=> =0 8 ! 2 B5G5=85 ?5@2KE =5A:>;L:8E =545;L. Chapman and Morrison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e.g., Gehrels, 1994; Remo, 1997). "5E=>;>388 ?;0=5B0@=>9 70I8BK 1K;8 ?@87=0=K ACI=>AB=> 206=K<8 4;O 4>;3>2@5<5==>3> 2K6820=8O G5;>25G5A:>9 F828;870F88 =0 5<;5. QAB:85 :;8<0B8G5A:85 8 M:>;>38G5A:85 MDD5:BK, ?@54A:07K205<K5 4;O 27@K2=KE A25@E8725@65=89, ?>AB028;8 2>?@>A >1 8E ?>A;54AB28OE 4;O F828;870F88 =0 5<;5 8 =0 4@C38E 75<;5?>4>1=KE ?;0=5B0E, :>B>@K5 <>3CB 8<5BL @07C<=CN 687=L. (Rampino, 2002; Sparks et al., 2005). Chapman 8 Morrison (1994) ?@54?>;>68;8, GB> 3;>10;L=K5 :;8<0B8G5A:85 MDD5:BK A25@E8725@65=89 2@>45 ">1K <>3CB 1KBL M:2820;5=B=K MDD5:B0< >B ?045=8O 0AB5@>840 480<5B@>< 2 1 :<. KA>:>48A?5@A=0O 2C;:0=8G5A:0O ?K;L 8 0M@>7>;8 A5@=>9 :8A;>BK 8<5NB >?B8G5A:89 A2>9AB20, ?>E>685 =0 A2>9AB20 AC1<8:@>==>9 ?K;8, A>740205<>9 8<?0:B0<8 (Toon et al., 1997), 8 MDD5:BK 2 >B=>H5=88 0B<>AD5@=>9 ?@>7@0G=>AB8 1C4CB ?>4>1=K<8. C;:0=8G5A:85 0M@>7>;8, >4=0:>, 8<5NB 1>;LH55 2@5<O 2K?045=8O, ?>@O4:0 =5A:>;L:8E ;5B (Bekki et al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ampino, 2002). >;55 B>3>, ?@54A:070=85 8;8 ?@54>B2@0I5=85 2C;:0=8G5A:>9 :;8<0B8G5A:>9 :0B0AB@>DK <>65B 1KBL 3>@074> 1>;55 B@C4=K<, G5< >1=0@C65=85 8 >B:;>=5=85 0AB5@>84>2 8 :><5B. -B8 A>>1@065=8O >7=0G0NB, GB> 2C;:0=8G5A:85 AC?5@8725@65=8O ?@54AB02;ONB @50;L=CN C3@>7C 4;O F828;870F88, 8 =5>1E>48<K A5@LQ7=K5 CA8;8O 4;O ?@54A:070=8O 8 ?@54>B2@0I5=8O 2C;:0=8G5A:8E :;8<0B8G5A:8E :0B0AB@>D. (Rampino, 2002; Sparks et al. 2005). ;03>40@=>AB8 / 1;03>40@N S. Ambrose, S. Self, R. Stothers, 8 G. Zielinski 70 ?@54>AB02;5==CN 8=D>@<0F8N. @54;>65=8O 4;O ?>A;54CNI53> GB5=8O: Bindeman, I.N. (2006). The Secrets of Supervolcanoes. Scientific American Magazine (June 2006). %>@>H> =0?8A0==>5 ?>?C;O@=>5 22545=85 2 1KAB@> @0ABCICN >1;0ABL 8AA;54>20=89 ?> AC?5@2C;:0=>;>388. >-@CAA:8: "09=0O 687=L AC?5@2C;:0=>2  HYPERLINK "http://www.sciam.ru/2006/10/nauka1.shtml" http://www.sciam.ru/2006/10/nauka1.shtml Mason, B.G., Pyle, D.M., and Oppenheimer, ! (2004). The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth. Bull. Vokanol, 66, 735-748. 08;CGH0O 4>ABC?=0O A59G0A AB0B8AB8:0 ?> ?>B5=F80;L=> 3;>10;L=> :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8< C3@>70< 2C;:0=8G5A:8E 8725@65=89. -B0 AB0BLO 2:;NG05B 2 A51O A@02=5=85 8<?0:B>2 8 AC?5@8725@65=89 8 70:;NG05B, GB> AC?5@8725@65=8O =5ACB 2 A515 3>@074> 1>;LH89 @8A: =0 548=8FC 2K45;5==>9 M=5@388. Rampino, M.R. (2002). Super-eruptions as a threat to civilizations on Earth-like planets. Icarus, 156, 562-569.  MB>9 AB0BL5 AC?5@8725@65=8O AB02OBAO 2 1>;55 H8@>:89 :>=B5:AB M2>;NF88 @07C<=>9 687=8 2> A5;5==>9. Rampino, M.R., Self, S., and Stothers, R.B. (1988). Volcanic winters. Annu. Rev. 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"@8 F8:;0 8;0=:>28G0 2;8ONB =0 A57>==>ABL 8 <5AB0 =0 5<;5, :C40 ?>?0405B A>;=5G=0O M=5@38O, B0:8< >1@07><, 2;8OO =0 :>=B@0AB <564C A57>=0<8. -B> 206=>, ?>B><C GB> 5<;O 8<55B 0AA8<5B@8G=>5 @0A?@545;5=85 <0AA ACH8, :>B>@K5 (70 8A:;NG5=85< =B0@:B84K) ?>GB8 F5;8:>< =0E>48BAO 2/@O4>< A !525@=K< ?>;CH0@85<.  8A. 1. =B5=A82=0O A>;=5G=0O 2A?KH:0 4 =>O1@O 2003 3>40. 830=BA:0O >1;0ABL A>;=5G=KE ?OB5= 2K1@>A8;0 8=B5=A82=CN 2A?KH:C, 70 :>B>@>9 ?>A;54>20; <>I=K9 :>@>=0@=K9 2K1@>A (CME) 4 =>O1@O 2003 3>40. !0<0 2A?KH:0 284=0 2 =86=5< ?@02>< C3;C 2 :@09=5< C;LB@0D8>;5B>2>< 480?>7>=5 =0 D>B>3@0D88 :>A<8G5A:>9 A>;=5G=>9 >1A5@20B>@88 SOHO. 830=BA:0O 2A?KH:0 1K;0 >4=>9 87 A0<KE A8;L=KE :>340-;81> 70D8:8A8@>20==KE =0G8=0O A 1970-E 3>4>2, B@5BLO B0:0O <>I=0O 2A?KH:0 87 >1;0AB8 AR10486 2 B5G5=85 42CE =545;L. ;03>40@=>ABL 70 D>B>3@0D8N: SOHO-EIT Consortium, ESA, NASA240  8A. 2. !B>;:=>25=85 :><5BK (C<59:5@0-528 9 A .?8B5@>< A 16 4> 22 8N;O 1994 3>40. ><5B0 A>AB>O;0 87 ?> :@09=59 <5@5 21 @07;8G8<>3> D@03<5=B0 A 480<5B@0<8 4> 2 :<. 04@K, ?@8254Q==K5 2KH5, ?>:07K20NB AB>;:=>25=85 ?5@2>3> 87 20 D@03<5=B>2 A .?8B5@><. 5@E=89 ;52K9 :04@ ?>:07K205B .?8B5@ A@07C ?5@54 AB>;:=>25=85<. /@:89 >1J5:B A?@020  MB> 1;8609H89 A?CB=8: .?8B5@0 >, 8 BCA:;0O >20;L=0O AB@C:BC@0 2 N6=>< ?>;CH0@88  MB> >;LH>5 :@0A=>5 ?OB=>. >;O@=K5 H0?:8 2K3;O4OB A25B;K<8 2 B5E ;CG0E, 2 :>B>@KE ?@>2>48;>AL =01;N45=85, 2.3 <:<, :>B>@K5 1K;8 2K1@0=K 4;O CA8;5=8O :>=B@0AB0 <564C >3=5==K< H0@>< 8 N?8B5@80=A:>9 0B<>AD5@>9. 0 2B>@>9 D>B>3@0D88 >3=5==K9 H0@ ?>O2;ONBAO =04 N3>-2>AB>G=K< :@05< ?;0=5BK (=86=89 ;52K9 :04@). 3=5==K9 H0@ 4>AB8305B <0:A8<0;L=>9 A25B8<>AB8 2 B5G5=85 =5A:>;L:8E <8=CB, 8 2 MB>B <><5=B 53> A25B8<>ABL ?@52>AE>48B A25B8<>ABL >. >A;54=89 :04@ ?>:07K205B .?8B5@ G5@57 20 <8=CB, :>340 8<?0:B=0O 7>=0 1>;55-<5=55 ?>B5<=5;0. ;03>40@=>AB8: Credit: Dr. David R. 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Cas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ass Amherst/M.D.Stage et al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(2004) ?@54?>;>68;8, GB> >;545=5=8O A2O70=K =5 A F8:;0<8 87<5=5=8O ?>ABC?;5=8O A>;=5G=>9 @0480F88, => A 87<5=5=8O<8 :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59, 2>7<>6=>, 2 A2O78 A 8E MDD5:B0<8 =0 >1;0:0. 065 5A;8 ?@8G8=0 M?>E >;545=5=89 2AQ 5IQ >AB0QBAO ?>4 2>?@>A><, 87<5=5=8O 3;>10;L=>3> >1;CG5=8O :>A<8G5A:>3> ?@>8AE>645=8O 4>;6=K 1KBL 1>;LH5, G5< >@18B0;L=K5 <>4C;OF88 A>;=5G=>9 @0480F88, 4;O B>3>, GB>1K ?@54AB02;OBL 4>AB>25@=CN C3@>7C 75<=>9 687=8. 8A.4. >A;5A25G5=85 30<<0-2A?;5A:0 GRB 030329. $>B>3@0D88 >?B8G5A:>3> ?>A;5A25G5=8O 2A?;5A:0 GRB 030329, :>B>@K9 8<5; <5AB> 29 <0@B0 20033. 1K;8 A45;0=K >G5=L >;LH8< "5;5A:>?>< (VLT) 52@>?59A:>9 N6=>9 >1A5@20B>@88 ESO 2 '8;8 3 0?@5;O 2003 3. 8 1 <0O 2003 3. 0 D>B>3@0D88, A45;0==>9 1 <0O, ?@5>1;0405B 87>1@065=85 A25@E=>2>9, :>B>@0O 8 AB0;0 8AB>G=8:>< 30<<0-2A?;5A:0. 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Carrington), A;CG8;0AL 1 A5=BO1@O 1959 3>40. !>;=5G=K5 2A?KH:8 ?@82>4OB : 2K1@>A0< M;5:B@><03=8B=>9 @0480F88, M=5@35B8G5A:8E M;5:B@>=>2, ?@>B>=>2 8 0B><=KE O45@ (A>;=5G=K5 :>A<8G5A:85 ;CG8) 8 70<03=8G5==>9 ?;07<K 87 ;>:0;L=>9 >1;0AB8 =0 !>;=F5. !>;=5G=0O 2A?KH:0 ?@>8AE>48B, :>340 <03=8B=0O M=5@38O, :>B>@0O =0:>?8;0AL 2 A>;=5G=>9 0B<>AD5@5, 2=570?=> 2K45;O5BAO. 7;CG05<0O M;5:B@><03=8B=0O @0480F8O @0A?@545;5=0 ?> 2A5<C A?5:B@C, >B @048>2>;= G5@57 >?B8G5A:89 480?07>= 4> @5=B35=>2A:8E 8 30<<0-;CG59. -=5@388 A>;=5G=KE :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 4>AB830NB =5A:>;L:8E 3830M;5:B@>= 2>;LB, B> 5ABL 10**9 5 (1 ev = 1 6021753(14). 10-13 J). 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B> 2@5<O :0: ?>B>:8 30<<0-;CG59 8 @5=B35=>2A:8E ;CG59 >B 30;0:B8G5A:8E 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2, :>B>@K5 ?>?040NB =0 5<;N, 8 8E G0AB>B0 <>3CB 1KBL =04Q6=K< >1@07>< 87<5@5=K =0 >A=>20=88 =01;N45=89 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 8 8E A2O78 A> A25@E=>2K<8, MB> =5 25@=> 4;O :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59, GLQ 87;CG5=85 <>65B 1KBL >F5=5=> =0 >A=>20=88 A><=8B5;L=KE <>45;59. !;54>20B5;L=>, E>BO MDD5:BK >B :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 <>3CB 1KBL 3>@074> 1>;55 @07@CH8B5;L=K, G5< MDD5:BK >B 30<<0-;CG59 8 @5=B35=>2A:8E ;CG59 >B B>3> 65 A0<>3> A>1KB8O, 4@C385 02B>@K (e.g., Galante and Horvath, 2005; Melott et al., 2004; Scab and Wheeler, 2002; Smith et al., 2004; Thomas et al., 2005) ?@54?>G8B0NB :>=F5=B@8@>20BLAO 2 >A=>2=>< =0 MDD5:B0E >1;CG5=8O 30<<0-;CG0<8 8 @5=B35=>2A:8<8 ;CG0<8. 0A?@545;5=85 27@K2>2 A25@E=>2KE ?> 30;0:B8:5 8725AB=> =0 >A=>20=88 @0A?@545;5=8O 8E >AB0B:>2. >;LH8=AB2> 27@K2>2 A25@E=>2KE ?@>8AE>48B 2 30;0:B8G5A:>< 48A:5 =0 30;0:B>F5=B@8G5A:8E @0AAB>O=8OE, :>B>@K5 3>@074> <5=LH5, G5< @0AAB>O=85 >B 5<;8 4> F5=B@0 30;0:B8:8. 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B<5B8< B0:65, GB> ?@>E>645=85 35;8>AD5@K G5@57 A?8@0;L=K5 @C:020, :>B>@K5 A>45@60B 1>;LH>5 :>;8G5AB2> G0AB8F ?K;8 >B 27@K2>2 A25@E=>2KE, <>65B ?@825AB8 : B><C, GB> MB8 G0AB8F0 ?@>=8:=CB 2 35;8>AD5@C, 4>AB83=CB 0B<>AD5@K, 70B<OB A>;=5G=K9 A25B 8 ?@8254CB : A=865=8N B5<?5@0BC@ 8 ;54=8:>2><C ?5@8>4C. 3.4 >A<8G5A:85 ;CG8 >B =540;Q:>9 A25@E=>2>9 >B>: :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 >B >AB0B:>2 A25@E=>2>9 (SNR) 1K; >F5=5= :0: F ~ 7.4 x 106 (30 LY/d)2 M@3/:2.A<. =0 @0AAB>O=88 d >B A25@E=>2>9. @5<O 0:B82=>3> CA8;5=8O :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 >B SNR >AB02;O5B ?@8<5@=> 10000 ;5B. >B>: >:@C60NI8E :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 2 @09>=5 5<;8 A>AB02;O5B 9 x 104 M@3/ :2. A< 2 3>4. "0:8< >1@07><, =0 @0AAB>O=88 ?@8<5@=> 300 A25B>2KE ;5B ?>B>: >:@C60NI8E :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 CA8;8BAO ?@8<5@=> =0 0.1% =0 ?5@8>4 2 ?@8<5@=> 10000 ;5B. 'B>1K MDD5:B 1K; 7=0G8B5;L=K<, A25@E=>20O 4>;6=0 27>@20BLAO =0 @0AAB>O=88 4> 30 A25B>2KE ;5B >B !>;=F0. @8=8<0O 2 @0AG5B >F5=:8 G0AB>BK A25@E=>2KE 8 @0A?@545;5=85 30;0:B8G5A:8E A25@E=>2KE, G0AB>B0 27@K2>2 A25@E=>2KE =0 @0AAB>O=88 30 A25B>2KE ;5B >B !>;=F0 A>AB02;O5B 3 x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ar and De Rujula, 2004 8 AAK;:8 2 B5:AB5). $>B><5B@8G5A:85 8 A?5:B@>A:>?8G5A:85 =01;N45=8O A25@E=>2KE 2 70BCE0NI5< ?>A;5A25G5=88 =540;Q:8E 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 8 4@C385 A2>9AB20 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 8 8E ?>A;5A25G5=8O 40NB @5H8B5;L=K5 A2845B5;LAB20 2 ?>;L7C B>3>, GB> 4;8==K5 30<<0-2A?;5A:8 A>740NBAO 2KA>:>-@5;OB828ABA:8<8 465B0<8 87 ?;07<>84>2 87 >1KG=>9 <0B5@88, 2K1@0AK205<KE A25@E=>2K<8, :0: C65 402=> CB25@640;>AL <>45;LN ?CH5G=KE O45@ 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 (Cannonball (CB) Model of GRBs) (A<. =0?@8<5@, Dar, 2004, Dar & A. De Rujula 2004, "Magnetic field in galaxies, galaxy clusters, & intergalactic space in: Physical Review D 72, 123002-123006; Dar and De Rujula, 2004). -B8 465BK 87 ?;07<>84>2 A>740NB AB@5;>>1@07=K9 ?>B>: 2KA>:>M=5@35B8G=KE :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 70 AGQB <03=8B=>3> @0AA5820=8O 8>=878@>20==KE G0AB8F <5672Q74=>9 A@54K ?5@54 =8<8. "0:85 ?CG:8 ?CH5G=KE O45@ 87 30;0:B8G5A:8E 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 <>3CB ?@>9B8 7=0G8B5;L=K5 30;0:B8G5A:85 @0AAB>O=8O 8 <>3CB 1KBL 3>@074> 1>;55 ;5B0;L=K, G5< 30<<0-;CG8. (Dar and De Rujula, 2001; Dar etal., 1998). CABL 8 = bc  MB> A:>@>ABL 2KA>:>@5;OB828ABA:>3> ?CH5G=>3> O4@0 8 1/y = l/\/l - P2  MB> D0:B>@ >@5=F0. ;O 4;8==KE 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 C ~ 103 (v ~ 0.999999c!). > ?@8G8=5 2KA>:>@5;OB828ABA:>3> 42865=8O ?CH5G=KE O45@, G0AB8FK <5672Q74=>9 <0B5@88 , :>B>@K5 A<5B05B ?CH5G=K5 O4@0, 2E>4OB 2 =8E A D0:B>@>< >@5=F0 ?>@O4:0 y = 1000 A B>G:8 7@5=8O A8AB5<K >BAGQB0 ?CH5G=KE O45@. -B8 G0AB8FK @02=><5@=> @0A?@545;ONBAO ?> 2A5< =0?@02;5=8O< 8 CA:>@ONBAO BC@1C;5=B=K<8 <03=8B=K<8 ?>;O<8 2 ?CH5G=KE O4@0E (1;03>40@O <5E0=87<C, ?@54;>65==><C -=@8:> $5@<8) 4> B>3>, :0: >=8 A=>20 2K1@0AK20NBAO 2 <5672Q74=CN A@54C. KA>:>@5;OB828AB:>5 42865=85 ?CH5G=KE O45@ 5I5 1>;LH5 C25;8G8205B 8E M=5@38N 2 y @07 70 AGQB MDD5:B0 >?;5@0 8 ?5@5AB@08205B 8E 87>B@>?=>5 @0A?@545;5=85 2 C7:89 :>=8G5A:89 ;CG A C3;>< >B:@KB8O 2 ~ 1/y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by F ~ :C2/4O d2 ~ 1020 (LY/d2) M@3. / :2. A<., 345 B8?8G=K5 7=0G5=8O :8=5B8G5A:>9 M=5@388 465B>2 @02=K 10**51 M@3 8 y = 10**3, GB> 1K;> ?>;CG5=> =0 >A=>20=88 0=0;870 ?CH5G=KE O45@ =0 >A=>20=88 40==KE 4;8==KE 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2. 01;N45=85 ?>A;5A25G5=8O 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 ?>:07K20NB, GB> >1KG=> B@51C5BAO 45=L 8;8 420, GB>1K ?CH5G=K5 O4@0 ?>B5@O;8 ?@8<5@=> ?>;>28=C A2>59 87=0G0;L=>9 :8=5B8G5A:>9 M=5@388, B> 5ABL GB>1K 8E >@5=F D0:B>@ C1K; 2 ?>;>28=C. -B0 M=5@38O ?@52@0I05BAO 2 :>A<8G5A:85 ;CG8 A B8?8G=K< >@5=F D0:B>@>< y(cr)=y**2, GLQ 2@5<O ?@81KB8O =0 30;0:B8G5A:8E @0AAB>O=8OE 70?074K205B ?> >B=>H5=8N D>B>=0< ?>A;5A25G5=8O =0 ?@5=51@568<> <0;>5 2@5<O At ~ d/cy2CR. "0:8< >1@07><, ?@81KB85 1>;LH59 G0AB8 M=5@388 :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 ?@0:B8G5A:8 A>2?0405B A ?@81KB85< D>B>=>2 ?>A;5A25G5=8O. "0:8< >1@07><, 4;O B8?8G=>3> 4;8==>3> 30<<0-2A?;5A:0 =0 30;0:B8G5A:>< @0AAB>O=88 2 25000 A25B>2KE ;5B, :>B>@K9 2845= ?>4 B8?8G=K< C3;>< 10**(-3) @0480=, 2KA2>1>645=85 M=5@388 2 0B<>AD5@5 70 AGQB ?CG:0 :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 A>AB028B 10**11 M@3/ :2. A<., GB> =0 B@8 ?>@O4:0 1>;LH5, G5< M=5@38O 30<<0-;CG59. (:8=5B8G5A:0O M=5@38O M;5:B@>=>2 2 465B5 ?@52@0I05BAO 2 :>=8G5A:89 ?CG>: 30<<0-;CG59, B>340 :0: 1>;LH0O G0ABL :8=5B8G5A:>9 M=5@388 ?@>B>=>2 ?@52@0I05BAO 2 :>=8G5A:89 ?CG>: :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 ?@8<5@=> A B5< 65 C3;>< >B:@KB8O). CG>: M=5@35B8G=KE :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59, A>?@>2>640NI8E 30;0:B8G5A:89 30<<0-2A?;5A:, A<5@B5;5= 4;O 687=8 =0 75<;5?>4>1=KE ?;0=5B0E. >340 2KA>:>M=5@35B8G=K5 :>A<8G5A:85 ;CG8 A M=5@3859 E AB0;:820NBAO A 0B<>AD5@>9 ?>4 C3;>< : 75=8BC B, >=8 A>740NB ?>B>: <N>=>2, GLQ G8A;> ?@8<5@=> A>AB02;O5B N(E > 25 GeV) ~ 9.14[Ep/TeV]0.757/cos B (Drees et al., 1989). !>>B25BAB25==>, B8?8G=K9 30<<0-2A?;5A:, A>740==K9 465B>< A M=5@3859 E=10*51 M@3 =0 30;0:B8G5A:>< @0AAB>O=88 25000 A2. ;5B, 2848<K9 ?>4 C3;>< 10**(-3), 1C45B A>?@>2>640BLAO ?>B>:>< <N>=>2 =0 C@>2=8 ?>25@E=>AB8 F(E > 25 GeV) ~ 3 x 1011cm~2. "0:8< >1@07><, 2K45;5=85 M=5@388 =0 C@>2=5 ?>25@E=>AB8 2 18>;>38G5A:8E <0B5@80;0E, ?>4 2;8O=85< 0B<>AD5@=KE <N>=>2, A>740205<>5 A@54=5AB0B8AB8G5A:8< 30<<0-2A?;5A:>< >:>;> F5=B@0 30;0:B8:8, A>AB028B 1.4 x 1012 MeV/3@. -B> A>AB02;O5B ?@8<5@=> 75 A<5@B5;L=KE 4;O G5;>25:0 4>7. 5B0;L=K5 4>7K 4;O 4@C38E ?>72>=>G=KE 8 4;O =0A5:><KE <>3CB 1KBL 2 =5A:>;L:> @07 <5=LH5 8;8 2 7 @07 1>;LH5, A>>B25BAB25==>. "0:8< >1@07><, :>A<8G5A:85 ;CG8 >B 30;0:B8G5A:8E 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 <>3CB ?@8=5AB8 A A>1>9 A<5@B5;L=CN 4>7C 0B<>AD5@=KE <N>=>2 4;O 1>;LH8=AB20 284>2 682KE ACI5AB2 =0 5<;5. > ?@8G8=5 1>;LH>3> ?@>1530 <N>=>2 (4[E^/GeV]m) 2 2>45, 8E ?>B>: A<5@B5;5=, 4065 2 A>B=OE <5B@0E ?>42>4>9 8 ?>4 75<;Q9 4;O :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59, G59 8AB>G=8: =0E>48BAO 4>AB0B>G=> 2KA>:> =04 3>@87>=B><. "0:8< >1@07><, 2 >B;8G85 >B 4@C38E ?@54;>65==KE <5E0=87<>2 2K<8@0=8O, :>A<8G5A:85 ;CG8 >B 30;0:B8G5A:8E 30<<0-2A?;5A:>2 <>3CB ?@82>48BL : <0AA>2K< 2K<8@0=8O< 3;C1>:> ?>4 2>4>9 8 ?>4 75<;Q9. %>BO ?>;?;0=5BK =0E>48BAO 2 B5=8 ?>B>:0 :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59, 55 2@0I5=85 ?>425@305B 1>;LHCN G0ABL 55 ?>25@E=>AB8 2>7459AB28N :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59, ?>;>28=0 87 :>B>@KE ?@81C45B 2 B5G5=85 42CE 4=59 ?>A;5 30<<0-;CG59. >?>;=8B5;L=K5 MDD5:BK, C25;8G820NI85 ;5B0;L=>ABL :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 4;O 2A59 ?;0=5BK, 2:;NG0NB 2 A51O: A?0@5=85 7=0G8B5;L=>9 G0AB8 0B<>AD5@K 70 AGQB 2KA2>1>645=8O M=5@388 :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59. ;>10;L=K5 ?>60@K, 2K720==K5 =03@52>< 0B<>AD5@K 8 C40@=K<8 2>;=0<8, A>740205<K<8 :>A<8G5A:8<8 ;CG0<8 2 0B<>AD5@5. 0@065=85 >:@C60NI59 A@54K @048>0:B82=K<8 O4@0<8, 2>7=8:H8<8 ?@8 @071820=88 0B<>AD5@=KE 8 3@C=B>2KE O45@ G0AB8F0<8 87 ;82=59, 2K720==KE :>A<8G5A:8<8 ;CG0<8, :>B>@K5 4>AB83=CB ?>25@E=>AB8. AG57=>25=85 AB@0B>AD5@=>3> >7>=0, :>B>@K9 2ABC?8B 2 @50:F8N A >:A84>< 07>B0, A>740==K< M;5:B@>=0<8, :>B>@K5 A>7404CB :>A<8G5A:85 ;CG8 (7=0G8B5;L=>5 @07@CH5=85 AB@0B>AD5@=>3> >7>=0 =01;N40;>AL ?@8 <>I=KE A>;=5G=KE 2A?KH:0E, :>B>@K9 35=5@8@>20;8 M=5@35B8G=K5 ?@>B>=K.) =0G8B5;L=K5 ?>2@5645=8O ?8I52KE F5?>G5: 70 AGQB @048>0:B82=>3> 703@O7=5=8O 8 <0AA>2>3> 2K<8@0=8O @0AB8B5;L=>AB8 87-70 8>=878@CNI59 @0480F88 (;5B0;L=55 4>7K @0480F88 4;O 45@52L52 8 @0AB5=89 =5<=>3> 1>;LH5, G5< 4>7K 4;O 682>B=KE, => 2AQ 65 <5=LH5, G5< ?>B>:, >F5=:8 :>B>@>3> ?@82545=K 2KH5  4;O 2A5E, :@><5 A0<KE 682CG8E 284>2). "0:8< >1@07><, ?CG>: :>A<8G5A:8E ;CG59 >B 30;0:B8G5A:>9 A25@E=>2>9/30<<0-2A?;5A:0, =0?@02;5==K9 2 =0HC AB>@>=C, :>B>@K9 ?@81K205B A@07C ?>A;5 30<<0-2A?;5A:0, <>65B C18BL, 2 >B=>A8B5;L=> :>@>B:>5 2@5<O (2 B5G5=85 <5AOF52), 1>;LH8=AB2> 284>2 682KE ACI5AB2 =0 =0H59 ?;0=5B5. 4. @8G8=K :@C?=59H8E <0AA>2KE 2K<8@0=89. 5>;>38G5A:85 A2845B5;LAB20 ?>:07K20NB, GB> 687=L =0 5<;5 @072820;0AL 8 040?B8@>20;0AL : 4>2>;L=> <54;5==> <5=ONI8<AO CA;>28O<. 4=0:> 2KA>:>:0G5AB25==K5 35>;>38G5A:85 A2845B5;LAB20, :>B>@K5 ?@>AB8@0NBAO 2?;>BL 4> 500 <;=. ;5B 2 ?@>H;>5 ?>:07K20NB, GB> M:A?>=5=F80;L=0O 4825@A8D8:0F8O <>@A:>9 8 :>=B8=5=B0;L=>9 687=8 =0 5<;5 2 B>B ?5@8>4 ?@5@K20;0AL <=>38<8 2K<8@0=8O<8 (e.g., Benton 1995; Erwin 1996, 1997; Raup and Sepkoski, 1986), :@C?=59H85 87 :>B>@KE ?@825;8 : 3815;8 1>;55 50% 284>2 682KE ACI5AB2 =0 ACH5 8 2 <>@5 8 A;CG0;8AL 2 A@54=5< @07 2 100 <;=.;5B. 5 :@C?=59H8E A>1KB89 2:;NG0NB 2 A51O: 2 :>=F5 @4>28:>2>3> ?5@8>40 (435 <;=. ;5B =0704), ?>74=55 52>=>2>5 (357 <;=. 45B =0704), 2 :>=F5 5@<A:>3> ?5@8>40 (251 <;=. ;5B =0704), ?>74=55 "@80A>2>5 (198 <;=. ;5B =0704) 8 2 :>=F5 5;>2>3> ?5@8>40 (65 <;=.;5B =0704). 0 8A:;NG5=85<, 25@>OB=>, 2K<8@0=8O =0 3@0=8F5 5;>2>3> 8 "@5B8G=>3> ?5@8>4>2, =5 >G5=L E>@>H> 8725AB=>, GB> 8<5==> 2K720;> 4@C385 <0AA>2K5 2K<8@0=8O. ;02=K5 38?>B57K B0:85: 045=85 <5B5>@8B0. #40@ 4>AB0B>G=> 1>;LH>3> 0AB5@>840 8;8 :><5BK <>65B A>740BL <530-FC=0<8, 3;>10;L=K5 ;5A=K5 ?>60@K 8 ?@825AB8 : ?>4>18N O45@=>9 78<K 70 AGQB ?K;8, :>B>@CN >= 2K1@>A8B 2 0B<>AD5@C, ?@8GQ< MB0 78<0 1C45B 4>AB0B>G=> AC@>2>9, GB>1K ?@825AB8 : <0AA>2><C 2K<8@0=8N. @C?=>5 AB>;:=>25=85 A <5B5>@8B>< (Alvarez et al., 1980) 1K;> ?@8720=> >1JOA=8BL 0=><0;L=>5 A>45@60=85 8@848O 8 <0AA>2>5 2K<8@0=85, :>B>@>5 C=8GB>68;> 48=>702@>2 8 47% 2A5E 284>2 =0 5<;5 =0 5;-"@5B8G=>9 3@0=8F5 65 <;=. ;5B =0704.  459AB28B5;L=>, 180 :8;><5B@>2K9 :@0B5@ 1K; >1=0@C65= >:>;> '8:AC;C10 =0 .:0B0=5 ?>3@51Q==K< ?>4 1 :< >B;>65=89 F5=>7>O 8 40B8@>20= 65 <;=. ;5B =0704; 53> 25@>OB=> ?@>8725;> AB>;:=>25=85 A 10 :8;><5B@>2K< 0AB5@>84>< 8;8 :><5B>9. 4=0:> B>;L:> 4;O 2K<8@0=8O 2 :>=F5 5;0 8<5NBAO C1548B5;L=K5 4>:070B5;LAB20 B0:>3> AB>;:=>25=8O. 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Carrigan, Jr. Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory Box 500 MS221 Batavia, IL 60510 USA  HYPERLINK "mailto:carrigan@fnal.gov" carrigan@fnal.gov  HYPERLINK "http://home.fnal.gov/~carrigan/SETI/SETI%20Hacker_AC-03-IAA-8-3-06.doc" http://home.fnal.gov/~carrigan/SETI/SETI%20Hacker_AC-03-IAA-8-3-06.doc @0B:>5 A>45@60=85. 8>;>38G5A:>5 70@065=85 >B >1@07F>2 87 :>A<>A0 O2;O5BAO >B40;Q==>9, => 4>?CA:05<>9 2>7<>6=>ABLN. !83=0;K, ?>;CG05<K5 2 ?@>F5AA5 ?>8A:>2 2=575<=>3> @07C<0 (SETI), B>65 <>3CB A>45@60BL 2@54>=>A=CN 8=D>@<0F8N 2 4CE5 :><?LNB5@=KE 28@CA>2, GB> 8725AB=> ?>4 =0720=85< 38?>B57K SETI-E0:5@0. >8A:8 2=575<=>3> @07C<0 2 B5G5=85 ?>A;54=8E G5BK@QE 45AOB8;5B89 40;8 <0;> >1>A=>20=89 4;O MB>9 2>7<>6=>AB8. 5:>B>@K5 4>:07K20NB, GB> 8=D>@<0F8O 87 2=575<=>3> A83=0;0 =5 <>65B 0B0:>20BL 75<=>9 :><?LNB5@, ?>B><C GB> :><?LNB5@=0O ;>38:0 8 :>4 O2;ONBAO C=8:0;L=K<8 8 ?@54AB02;ONB A>1>9 =5?@5>4>;8<K9 D095@2>;.  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KH5?@8254Q==K5 D>@<C;K <>3CB 1KBL 8A?>;L7>20=K 4;O >?@545;5=8O Et,- @0AE>40 M=5@388 ?5@540BG8:0 =0 >48= ?5@540==K9 18B:  EMBED Equation.3  (5)  Er, M=5@388 ?>;CG0B5;O =0 >48= ?>;CG5==K9 18B:  EMBED Equation.3 . (6) !B>8<>ABL ?5@540==>9 M=5@388 @0ABQB ?@>?>@F8>=0;L=> :204@0BC @0AAB>O=8O 8 C1K205B ?@8 C25;8G5=88 CA8;5=8O 0=B5==K (gain). 0 AB>@>=5 ?@8Q<=8:0 1>;55 =87:0 HC<>20O B5<?5@0BC@0 8 1>;LH0O ?> @07<5@0< 0=B5==0 C<5=LH05B >B=>H5=85 M=5@38O / 18B. 0?@8<5@, Er = 10-22 6 8;8 0.0006 eV 8 Et = 3.6 6. -=5@38O =0 >48= D>B>= E = h, 345 h  MB> ?>AB>O==0O ;0=:0 8   MB> G0AB>B0. 0?@8<5@, M=5@38O =0 >48= D>B>= @02=0 6.63*10-24 6 8;8 0.00004 eV.  40==>< ?@8<5@5 45B5:B8@>20=85 >4=>3> 18B0 @02=> ?>;CG5=8N 14 D>B>=>2 =0 ?@8Q<=8:5. =B5@5A=> >B<5B8BL, GB> @0AE>4K M=5@388 =0 >48= 18B ?@8 M;5:B@><03=8B=>9 ?5@540G5 8 ?@8 =0?@02;5==>9 ?0=A?5@<88 8 ?@8 @0A?@>AB@0=5=88 A ?><>ILN :>A<8G5A:8E 0??0@0B>2 ?>A@54AB2><  >48=0:>2K ?@8 A:>@>ABOE ?>@O4:0 10-4 A:>@>AB8 A25B0. '0AB8G=> MB> ?@>8AE>48B, ?>B><C GB> E@0=5=85 8=D>@<0F88 A ?><>ILN  25AL<0 MDD5:B82=>. !D5@0 87  480<5B@>< 5 << <>65B E@0=8BL ?>@O4:0 25 M:70109B 8=D>@<0F88. 07C<55BAO, ?5@540G0 8=D>@<0F88 3>@074> <54;5==55 M;5:B@><03=8B=>9 ?5@540G8. AB5AB25==>, @07;8G=K5 ?@54?>;>65=8O > @048>, ;075@=>9 8 <0B5@80;L=>9 ?5@540G5 8=D>@<0F88 87<5=ONB 8E >B=>A8B5;L=K5 M=5@35B8G5A:85 F5=K. >7459AB285 1C4CI8E B5E=>;>389 B0:65 <>65B 87<5=8BL >B=>A8B5;L=K5 2708<>A2O78. 'B> :0A05BAO A8AB5< 4>AB02:8 A>>1I5=89, B> =8 >4=0 87 =8E =5 <>65B 1KBL 8A:;NG5=0 2 =0AB>OI89 <><5=B. 081>;55 206=K< 745AL O2;O5BAO B>, GB> >3@><=K5 :>;8G5AB20 8=D>@<0F88 <>3CB 1KBL =54>@>3> ?5@540=K A> A:>@>ABLN A25B0 4065 A ?><>ILN A>2@5<5==KE B5E=>;>389. @><5 B>3>, @07<5@ A>>1I5=8O <>65B 1KBL AB>;L 25;8:, GB> ?>4;8==>5 =0<5@5=85 A>>1I5=8O <>65B 1KBL =5>G5284=K<. 15770@06820=85 A83=0;0. 0: C65 >B<5G0;>AL @0=55, 0@E5>;>38G5A:85 A;54K 8 <0O:8 2K3;O4OB 4>AB0B>G=> 157>?0A=K<8 A B>G:8 7@5=8O SETI. !2>9AB2>< <0O:0 O2;O5BAO B>, GB> >= 1C45B ?5@54020BL =5 >G5=L <=>3> 8=D>@<0F88. ! 4@C3>9 AB>@>=K, >B <0O:0 4> A>>1I5=8O <>65B 1KBL >48= :>@>B:89 H03. 0?@8<5@, <0O: <>65B C:07K20BL =0 A83=0; =0 4@C3>9 G0AB>B5, =0 :>B>@>< ?5@540QBAO A>>1I5=85.  A>>1I5=8N A;54C5B ?>4E>48BL A 1>;LH>9 >AB>@>6=>ABLN. => <>65B 1KBL 8A:;NG8B5;L=> >?0A=>! >?@>ABC 3>2>@O, ?@8Q<=8: 4>;65= 8<5BL 28@CA=CN 70I8BC 8 M;5:B@>==K9 ?@575@20B82. !;54C5B @0AA<>B@5BL ?> :@09=59 <5@5 420 AF5=0@8O 4;O 70I8BK >B 7;>=0<5@5==>3> SETI E0:5@0. 48=  MB> :><?LNB5@=K9 28@CA 2 A>>1I5=88, :>B>@K9 >2;045205B :><?LNB5@>< =0 AB>@>=5 ?>;CG0B5;O. @C3>9  MB> >B:@KB>5 A>>1I5=85, :>B>@>5 A>45@68B =5?>=OB=CN 4;O =0A ?@>3@0<<C 8;8 8=AB@C:F88 ?> A>740=8N <0B5@80;L=>3> ?5@52>4G8:0 (hardware translator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lliAC ( HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ILLIAC" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ILLIAC) 8 ?@54;>68BL ?@>3@0<<8AB0<, =57=0:><K< A A8AB5<>9 :>4>2 IlliAC, ?>?KB0BLAO 27;><0BL MBC ?@>3@0<<C. (@>3@0<<0 =0 :>40E IlliAC 4;O 27;><0 ;568B =0 A09B5 02B>@0 AB0BL8  ?@8<. ?5@.) / 4C<0N, GB> B0:65 1K;> 1K ?>;57=> ?@>25AB8 A5<8=0@ A @07=>AB>@>==8<8 CG0AB=8:0<8, GB>1K >1AC48BL 2>?@>A ?>4@>1=55. 3> <>6=> 1K;> 1K >1J548=8BL c 1>;55 H8@>:>9 48A:CAA859 ?> 2>?@>AC =0 B5<C >15770@06820=8O ETI A83=0;>2. ABL =5A:>;L:> ?>4E>4>2, :>B>@K5 <>3CB 1KBL ?@54?@8=OBK 4;O >15770@06820=8O A83=0;>2 SETI. 071820=85 8=D>@<0F88 =0 ?0:5BK, :0: MB> 45;05BAO 2 =0AB>OI89 <><5=B 4;O ?@>3@0<<K  HYPERLINK "mailto:SETI@home" SETI@home, 45;05B 3>@074> 1>;55 B@C4=K< 4;O 1>;LH>9 ?@>3@0<<K A=>20 A>1@0BLAO 2<5AB5 8 703@C78BAO. 7>;OF8O 2E>4OI8E A>>1I5=89 =0 A?5F80;L=>< :><?LNB5@5 ?>72>;8B A>E@0=8BL ?>B5=F80;L=> >?0A=K9 A83=0; 2 87>;8@>20==>< >:@C65=88. >3CB 1KBL B0:65 4>?>;=8B5;L=K5 B5E=8:8, B0:85 :0: 8A?>;L7>20=85 >4=>@07>2>3> ?@>3@0<<8@>20=8O (one-time only coding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occoni, G., Morrison, P. Searching for Interstellar Communications, Nature, 184, 844-846, 1959. Tarter, J.,  The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys., 39, 511-548, 2001. De Duve, C.  Life Evolving. Molecules, Mind, and Meaning, Oxford, New York, 2002. For a contrary view see Ward, P., Brownlee, D.  Rare Earth, Copernicus, Springer-Verlag, New York., 2000. Sullivan, III, W., Brown, S., Wetherill, C.,  Eavesdropping: The Radio Signature of Earth, Science, 199, 377-388, 1978. Cited in Sagan, C. et al.,  Carl Sagan s Comic Connection, p. 236, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000. Carrigan, R., Carrigan, N.,  The Siren Stars, serialized in Analog Mar.-May, 1970, published by Pyramid, New York, 1971, Hoyle, F., Elliot, J.,  A is for Andromeda, Souvenir Press Ltd., London, 1962. Carrigan, Jr., R.,  The Ultimate Hacker: SETI signals may need to be decontaminated, to be published in "Bioastronomy 2002: Life Amongst the Stars" Astronomical Society of the Pacific IAU Symposium Series, 213, editors Norris, R., Stootman, F, 2002. See, for instance, Secker, J., Wesson, P, and Lepock, J.,  Astrophysical and biological constraints on radio panspermia, Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, 90, 17:184-192, 1996. Crevier. D.,  The tumultuous history of the search for AI, Basic Books-Harper, New York, 1993. Lesk, M., in comments that appear at  HYPERLINK "http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html" http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html, 1997. Leigh, D.,  An Interference-Resistant Search for Extraterrestrial Microwave Beacons, submitted to The Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard Ph.D. thesis, 1998. (http://seti.harvard.edu/grad/d_thes.html). Nealson, K., et al.,  Mars Sample Return: Issues and Recommendations, Space Sciences Board of the National Academy of Sciences, Task Group on Issues in Sample Return, 1997. <http://www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/mrsrnot.html>. Billingham, J., Chairman,  SETI Committee. Declaration of Principles Concerning Activities Following the Detection of Extraterrestrial Intelligence, International Academy of Astronautics Position Paper Annex, 1996. .. "C@G8=. ;>10;L=K5 @8A:8, A2O70==K5 A ?@>3@0<<>9 SETI.  40==>9 AB0BL5 @0AA<0B@820NBAO @8A:8, A2O70==K5 A ?@>3@0<<>9 ?>8A:0 A83=0;>2 2=575<=>3> @07C<0 (SETI  Search of Extraterrestrial Intelligence).  AB0BL5 ?@54;0305BAO AF5=0@89 2>7<>6=>9 CO728<>AB8, :>B>@0O <>65B C3@>60BL A0<><C ACI5AB2>20=8N G5;>25G5A:>9 F828;870F88, 8 >1AC640NBAO ?@8G8=K, ?> :>B>@K< 4>;O >?0A=KE A83=0;>2 <>65B 1KBL 25;8:0.  40==>9 AB0BL5 =5 ?@54;0305BAO 70?@5B8BL ?@>3@0<<C SETI 8 =5 CB25@6405BAO =587156=>ABL SETI-0B0:8. >;55 B>3>, C:070= 20@80=B, :>340 SETI <>65B A;C68BL A?0A5=8N G5;>25G5AB20. 1. !" /  !  1959 3>4C 2 6C@=0;5 Nature 2KH;0 ?5@20O AB0BLO ?> ?@>1;5<0< ?>8A:0 2=575<=>3> @07C<0 2> A5;5==>9. 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(>4B25@645=85< 1K;> 1K, 5A;8 1K 0=0;>38G=K5 A>>1I5=8O ?@8E>48;8 1K >B 4@C38E F828;870F89, @0A?>;>65==KE 2 :>A<>A5 2 ?@>B82>?>;>6=>< =0?@02;5=88.) , 2>7<>6=>, B0:>5 A>>1I5=85 B>;L:> CA8;8B A>1;07= M:A?5@8<5=B8@>20BL A %-G0AB8F0<8. >MB><C O =5 ?@87K20N >B:070BLAO >:>=G0B5;L=> >B SETI ?>8A:>2, B5< 1>;55 GB> B0:85 ?@87K2K 15A?>;57=K. 4=0:> 206=> ?>2KA8BL >A>7=0=85 @8A:>2 C SETI-A>>1I5AB20, 157 MB>3> ;N1K5 40;L=59H85 <5@K 15A?>;57=K. >7<>6=>, 1K;> 1K ?>;57=> >B;>68BL ;N1K5 B5E=8G5A:85 @50;870F88 ?>A;0=89, :>B>@K5 <K <>3;8 1K ?>;CG8BL ?> SETI, 4> B>3> <><5=B0, :>340 C =0A 1C45B A2>9 8A:CAAB25==K9 8=B5;;5:B. > MB>3> <><5=B0, 2>7<>6=>, >AB0;>AL 10-30 ;5B, B> 5ABL <>6=> ?>B5@?5BL. >-2B>@KE, 206=> 1K;> 1K A:@K20BL A0< D0:B ?>;CG5=8O SETI-A83=0;0, 53> ACBL 8 <5AB>@0A?>;>65=8O 8AB>G=8:0, A B5<, GB>1K 871560BL 53> ?>2B>@=>3> A:0G820=8O. -B@5BL8E, <>6=> >14C<0BL A?>A>1K 3;CH5=8O SETI-A83=0;0, 5A;8 >= 1C45B ?@87=0= >?0A=K<, 8 <564C=0@>4=>3> 70?@5B0 =0 53> ?@8Q<, E@0=5=85 8 0=0;87, 0=0;>38G=> B><C, :0: 459AB2C5B 70?@5B 2 >B=>H5=88 O45@=KE A5:@5B>2 8 >1>@C4>20=8O. @>I5 2A53> 70<5B8BL ?@>O2;5=8O B5E F828;870F89, :>B>@K< 2K3>4=> > A515 A>>1I0BL. 06=> ?>=OBL, :0:>20 <>65B 1KBL ?@8G8=0 MB>9 2K3>4K, 8 =5 <>65B ;8 MB0 2K3>40 1KBL 4;O =0A >?0A=0. -4@80= 5=B. @8B8G5A:89 >17>@ >F5=>: @8A:>2 3;>10;L=KE :0B0AB@>D. 5@2>4: .."C@G8= arXiv:hep-ph/0009204v6 10 Dec 2003 http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0009204 CERN-TH/2000-029 DAMTP-2000-105 hep-ph/0009204 A critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes Adrian Kent Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, U.K. (April 2003 (revised)) ?C1;8:>20=>: Journal reference: Risk Anal. 24 (2004) 157-168  =5402=8E AB0BLOE Busza et al. 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K@065=8O ?@87=0B5;L=>AB8. =>385 4@C7LO, :>;;538 8 M:A?5@BK 2 4@C38E >1;0ABOE ?>B@0B8;8 7=0G8B5;L=>5 2@5<O 8 ?@8;>68;8 7=0G8B5;L=K5 CA8;8O, GB>1K ?><>GL <=5 A ?>43>B>2:>9 MB>9 AB0BL8. / >A>15==> 1;03>40@5= Clark Chapman 70 1>;LH>5 :>;8G5AB2> F5==KE A>25B>2 2 >B=>H5=88 =0CG=KE 2>?@>A>2 8 ?@>1;5< C?@02;5=8O @8A:0<8 8 70 <=>3> ?>;57=KE ?@54;>65=89. / B0:65 >G5=L 1;03>40@5= Andy Baker, 70 ?@54>AB02;5==K5 AAK;:8 >F5=>: @8A:>2 E@0=5=8O O45@=KE >BE>4>2; Hans Bethe 8 Kurt Gottfried, 70 ?@>OA=5=8O 8AB>@88 @01>B 2 >A-;0<>A5 =04 ?@>1;5<0<8 ?>46830=8O 0B<>AD5@K 8 >:50=0; Guido Altarelli, John Ellis, Jean-Pierre Revol, Jurgen Schukraft 8 Gavin Salam 70 704020=85 ?@028;L=KE 2>?@>A>2; Conor Houghton 8 KatinkaRidderbos 70 >G5=L ?>;57=CN :@8B8:C; Richard Binzel, Hans Rickman 8 David Morrison 70 ?>;57=K5 >1JOA=5=8O @8A:>2 <5B5>@8B=>3> C40@0 8 8AA;54>20=89 2>A?@8OB8O @8A:>2 >1I5AB2><; Holger Bech Nielsen, 70 =5A:>;L:> 8=B5@5A=KE 48A:CAA89 > @8A:0E :>;;0945@>2; Francesco Calogero 70 ?>;57=CN :@8B8:C 8 48A:CAA88 8 70 ?@54>AB02;5=85 G5@=>28:0 AB0BL8 ?> AAK;:5 [18]. "0:65 >G5=L ?@8OB=> ?>1;03>40@8BL Stephen Adler, Michael Atiyah, Guido Bacciagaluppi, David Bailin, Jon Barrett, John Barrow, Dorothy Bishop, James Blodgett, Charlotte Bonardi, Harvey Brown, Jeremy Butterfield, Joanne Cohn, Jane Cox, Ian Crotty, Matthias Dorrzapf, Fay Dowker, Ian Drummond, Michael Froomkin, Nicolas Gisin, Peter Goddard, Stephen Gratton, Lucien Hardy, Julia Hawkins, Ron Horgan, Tobias Hurth, Simon Judge, Anjali Kumar, Peter Landshoff, Nathan Lepora, Karen McDonald, Jane MacGibbon, David Mermin, Hugh Osborn, Sandu Popescu, Patrick Rabbitt, Martin Rees, Stefan Reimoser, Peter Ruback, Paul Saffin, Hugh Shanahan, Graham Shore, Tony Sudbery, John Taylor, Daniel Waldram, Peter West 8 Toby Wiseman 70 ?>;57=K5 48A:CAA88 8 ?5@5?8A:C. / B0:65 E>GC ?>4G5@:=CBL, GB> B5, :>3> O >B1;03>40@8;, =5 >1O70B5;L=> 2KA:070;8AL 2 ?>445@6:C ?@8254Q==>3> 2KH5 0=0;870 8 =5 >1O70B5;L=> @0745;ONB :0:85-;81> 2KA:070==K5 745AL 273;O4K. / 1;03>40@N CERN 70 D8=0=A>2CN 8 4@C3CN ?><>IL, >:070==CN 2 E>45 MB>9 @01>BK, :>B>@0O 1K;0 B0:65 ?>445@60=0 C=825@A8B5BA:8< A>>1I5AB2>< :>@>;52A:>3> >1I5AB20 (Royal Society University Research Fellowship) 8 !>25B>< 1J548=Q==>3> >@>;52AB20 ?> D878:5 G0AB8F 8 0AB@>=><88 (UK Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council). [1] W. Busza et al., Review of Speculative  Disaster Scenarios at RHIC, archived at www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9910333v1. [2] A. Dar et al., Will relativistic heavy ion colliders destroy our planet?, Phys. Lett. B, 470 142-148 (1999); archived at hep-ph/9910471. [3] E. Konopinski, C. Marvin and E. Teller, Ignition of the Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs, Los Alamos Laboratory report LA-602. >340 1K; =0?8A0= ?5@2K9 G5@=>28: MB>9 AB0BL8, MB0 AAK;:0 1K;0 2 0@E825 8 2 A2>1>4=>< 4>ABC?5 ?> 04@5AC http://libwww.lanl.gov/la-pubs/00329010.pdf. !>3;0A=> 181;8>B5:5 >A-;0<>A0, 4>ABC? 2 =0AB>OI55 2@5<O 70:@KB, 2 A>>B25BAB288 A 48@5:B82>9 =0F8>=0;L=>3> F5=B@0 O45@=>9 157>?0A=>AB8. / ?>;030N, GB> MB> A;54AB285 ?>2KA82H8EAO =>@< 157>?0A=>AB8 ?>A;5 11 A5=BO1@O. . [4] Pearl Buck, The bomb  the end of the world?, American Weekly, March 8, 1959, pp 8-11. [5] I am most grateful to Hans Bethe and Kurt Gottfried for this email correspondence. [6] P. Hut and M. Rees, How stable is our vacuum?, Nature 302, 508-509 (1983). [7] P. Hut, Is it safe to disturb the vacuum?, Nucl. Phys. A 418, 301c-311c (1984). [8] R. Jaffe et al., Review of Speculative  Disaster Scenarios at RHIC, archived at www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9910333v2.Further minor alterations were made for the final published version: Rev. Mod. Phys. 72, 1125-1140 (2000), archived atwww.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9910333v3, [9] See for example Black Holes at Brookhaven?, letter to the Editors, Scientific American, July 1999, p.5; Big Bang machinecould destroy Earth, article in The Sunday Times (London), 18.7.99, p.26. [10] Apocalypse Deferred, Scientific American, December 1999. [11] Black Hole Ate My Planet, New Scientist, 28 August 1999, pp. 24-27. [12] Committee Report on Speculative  Disaster Scenarios at RHIC: synopsis, J. Marburger, 6.10.99. Archived for some while at http://www.bnl.gov/bnlweb/rhicreport.html. [13] S. Glashow and R. Wilson, Taking serious risks seriously, Nature 402, 596-597 (1999). [14] A. Kent, Problems with empirical bounds for strangelet production at RHIC, hep-ph/0009130. [15] Gambling with the Earth, New Scientist 7.10.00, p. 4. [16] Board Statement on Radiological Protection Objectives for the Land-based Disposal of Solid Radioactive Wastes, Documents of the NRPB 3, 3 (1992). Abstract available at http://www.nrpb.org.uk/Absd3-3.htm [17] C. Chapman and D. Morrison, Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard, Nature 367, 33-40 (1994). [18] F. Calogero, Might a laboratory experiment now being planned destroy planet Earth?, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews 25,191-202 (2000). . . >=>=>2. 45>;>38G5A:85 =0G0;0 >1I59 B5>@88 =5C=8GB>68<>AB8 G5;>25G5AB20 =>385 >B:@KB8O 2 0AB@>=><88 8 =0C:0E > 5<;5 A45;0==K5 70 ?>A;54=85 45AOB8;5B8O AB0;8 >B:@KB8O<8 =>2KE C3@>7 8 @8A:>2 ACI5AB2>20=8O G5;>25G5AB20 =0 5<;5 8 2 >A<>A5. 0 A53>4=OH=89 45=L <>6=> A45;0BL 2K2>4 > B><, GB> =0H0 F828;870F8O ACI5AB2C5B 8 @0728205BAO 2 :0B0AB@>D8G5A:8 =5AB018;L=>9 A@545, :>B>@0O <>65B C=8GB>68BL 55 2 ;N1>9 <><5=B 8 B>;L:> AG0AB;82>5 AB5G5=85 >1AB>OB5;LAB2 (2575=89) 40;> 2>7<>6=>ABL @0728BLAO =0H59 F828;870F88 4> A>2@5<5==>3> C@>2=O. > B0:>5 2575=85 2@O4 ;8 1C45B 25G=K<. #3@>7K C=8GB>65=8O G5;>25G5AB20  B5G5=85 =5A:>;L:8E ?>A;54=8E ;5B 02B>@>< AB0BL8 2 =B5@=5B5 2545BAO ?@>5:B >AL5 =0 8@>740=85 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.mirozdanie.narod.ru" http://www.mirozdanie.narod.ru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Narlikar Jayant "Violent Phenomena in the Universe", Oxford UP, 1984, 246 @.  (1) 0720=85 6C@=0;0 <>6=> ?5@525AB8 :0: "!2O70==K9 ?@>2>4><" (?@8<. ?5@52.).  (2) 0=>B5E=>;>38O - >1I55 =0720=85 4;O B5E=>;>389, <0=8?C;8@CNI8E >B45;L=K<8 0B><0<8 8 <>;5:C;0<8.  ?5@A?5:B825 >68405BAO, GB> A ?><>ILN =0=>B5E=>;>388 <>6=> 1C45B A>74020BL ;N1CN 25IL ?@O<> 87 0B><>2, ?@8GQ< B0:0O A1>@:0 1C45B =525@>OB=> 45HQ2>9. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  6>@46 8;45@ (George Gilder)  M:A?5@B 2 >1;0AB8 A5B52KE B5E=>;>389; O2;O5BAO 8740B5;5< B5E=>;>38G5A:>3> 8=D>@<0F8>==>3> 1N;;5B5=O 8 02B>@>< :=83 ""5;5:>A<" > 3@O4CI59 M@5 A5B59 A =5>3@0=8G5==>9 ?@>?CA:=>9 A?>A>1=>ABLN 8 ">30BAB2> 8 154=>ABL", >:0702H59 1>;LH>5 2;8O=85 =0 ?@57845=B0 5930=0. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  6>= !8@; (John Searle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he age of spiritual machines" by Ray Kurzwell (?@8<. ?5@52)  C448BK - CG0AB=8:8 ?5@2KE AB8E89=KE 2KABC?;5=89 ?@>B82 ?@8<5=5=8O <0H8= 2 E>45 ?@><KH;5==>3> ?5@52>@>B0 2 5;8:>1@8B0=88 (:>=5F 18 - =0G0;> 19 22.). 0720=85 - >B 8<5=8 ;535=40@=>3> ?>4<0AB5@LO 540 C440, :>B>@K9 O:>1K ?5@2K< @07@CH8; AB0=>: 2 157@0AAC4=>9 O@>AB8. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  "@>F5AA 2;0AB8" - B5@<8=, 8A?>;L7C5<K9 2 "0=8D5AB5 #=01><15@0".  @CAA:>< ?5@52>45 (4>ABC?5= =0 http://alexmylex.narod.ru/manifesto1.html; ?>E>65, GB> MB> 25AL<0 3@C1K9 ?5@52>4) 72CG8B B0:: "N48 8<5NB ?>B@51=>ABL (25@>OB=> ?> 18>;>38G5A:8< ?@8G8=0<) 2 B><, GB> <K =07>2Q< "?@>F5AA 2;0AB8". -B> A2O70=> A ?>B@51=>ABLN 2> 2;0AB8, =0;8G85 :>B>@>9 H8@>:> ?@87=0=>, => MB> 2AQ 65 =5 B> 65 A0<>5. @>F5AA 2;0AB8 8<55B G5BK@5 M;5<5=B0. "@8 =081>;55 OA=KE <>6=> =0720BL B0:: F5;L, CA8;85 8 4>AB865=85 F5;8. "> 5ABL, :064K9 4>;65= 8<5BL F5;L, GLQ 4>AB865=85 B@51C5B >?@545;Q==KE CA8;89, 8 :064K9 ?@5CA?55B 2 4>AB865=88, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, =5:>B>@KE 87 A2>8E F5;59. '5B2Q@BK9 M;5<5=B 1>;55 B@C45= 2 >?@545;5=88 8 =5 >1O70B5;5= 4;O :064>3>. K =07>2Q< 53> 02B>=><859 8 >1AC48< MB> ?>765." (?@8<. ?5@52.)  B@K2>:, :>B>@K9 F8B8@C5B C@F259;, 27OB 87 "0=8D5AB0 #=01><15@0" "5>4>@0 0G8=A:8. -B>B <0=8D5AB 1K; ?>4 ?@8=C645=85< >?C1;8:>20= A>2<5AB=> "LN->@: "09<A" 8 "0H8=3B>= >AB" 2 :0G5AB25 ?>?KB:8 7025@H8BL 53> :0<?0=8N B5@@>@0. / A>3;0H0NAL A M284>< 5;5@=B5@><, :>B>@K9 A:070; >1 8E @5H5=88: "-B> 1K;> 10=48BA:>5 B@51>20=85 : 3075B0<. !:070BL "40" 1K;> 1K CABC?:>9 B5@@>@87<C, 8, =0A:>;L:> 8< 1K;> 8725AB=>, >= B0: 8;8 8=0G5 ;30;. ! 4@C3>9 AB>@>=K, A>3;0A85 <>3;> >AB0=>28BL C189AB20. K;0 B0:65 2>7<>6=>ABL B>3>, GB> :B>-B> ?@>GBQB B@0:B0B 8 70?>4>7@8B 02B>@0; B0: >=> 8 2KH;>. -B> ?@>GQ; 1@0B ?>4>7@5205<>3>, 8 @0740;AO 72>=>:. "/ 1K A:070; 8<, GB>1K >=8 =5 ?C1;8:>20;8. / @04, GB> >=8 <5=O =5 A?@>A8;8. / 4>304K20NAL." (Drawing Life: Surviving the Unabomber. Free Press, 1997: 120.) (?@8<. 02B.)  "5@@>@8AB0 "5>4>@0 0G8=A:8 (Theodore Kaczynski) =0720;8 "Unabomber" ?>B><C, GB> 53> 1><1K 27@K20;8AL, :0: ?@028;>, 2 C=825@A8B5B0E (universities) 8;8 A0<>;QB0E (airplanes). "Unabomber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upermax". M284 70 A>459AB285 2;0ABO< ?>;CG8; A>;84=CN 45=56=CN ?@5<8N, => =0 A51O =5 ?>B@0B8; =8 F5=B0. 0 ?>;CG5==K5 45=L38 >= >A=>20; D>=4 ?><>I8 A5<LO< 65@B2 "5>4>@0 8 >:07K205B 8< D8=0=A>2CN ?>445@6:C. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  0:>= C;8:0 (Finagle's law) - >4=0 87 @07=>284=>AB59 70:>=0 M@D8 (?@8<. ?5@52.)  C@8 M@@5BB. "0ABC?0NI0O GC<0: 2=>2L ?>O2;ONI85AO 1>;57=8 2 =5C@02=>25H5==>< <8@5". (Laurie Garrett. "The coming plague: newly emerging diseases in a world out of balance". Penguin, 1994: 47-52, 414, 419, 452.) (?@8<. 02B.)  "Robot: mere machine to transcendent mind" by Hans Moravec. (?@8<. ?5@52.)   1950-< 3>4C 2 A2>59 :=835 "/, @>1>B" 975: 78<>2 (A<. ?@8<5G. =0 A;54. AB@0=8F5  @54.) >?8A0; 2 A2>8E B@QE 70:>=0E @>1>B>B5E=8:8 B>, GB> AB0;> A0<K< 7=0<5=8BK< 273;O4>< =0 MB8G5A:85 ?@028;0 4;O ?>2545=8O @>1>B0: 1. >1>B =5 <>65B ?@8G8=8BL 2@54 G5;>25:C 8;8 A2>8< 157459AB285< 4>?CAB8BL, GB>1K G5;>25:C 1K; ?@8G8=Q= 2@54. 2. >1>B 4>;65= ?>28=>20BLAO ?@8:070<, 40==K< 5<C ;N4L<8, :@><5 A;CG052, :>340 B0:85 ?@8:07K 1C4CB ?@>B82>@5G8BL 5@2><C 0:>=C. 3. >1>B 4>;65= 70I8I0BL A2>Q A>1AB25==>5 ACI5AB2>20=85, ?>:0 B0:0O 70I8B0 =5 ?@>B82>@5G8B 5@2><C 8;8 B>@><C 0:>=C. (?@8<. 02B.)  M==8 %8;;8A (Danny Hillis).  12 ;5B 87 ?@>2>4>2 8 10B0@55: "2K;5?8;" 02B><0B 4;O 83@K 2 :@5AB8:8-=>;8:8. !BC45=B>< 0AA0GCA5BA:>3> B5E=>;>38G5A:>3> 8=AB8BCB0 87 ?>4@CG=KE <0B5@80;>2 A>1@0; :><?LNB5@. 07@01>B0; ?@8=F8? <0AA8@>20==>3> ?0@0;;5;87<0 2KG8A;5=89 8 >A=>20; A>1AB25==CN :><?0=8N "C<0NI85 0H8=K" ("Thinking Machines") 4;O ?@>872>4AB20 ?0@0;;5;L=KE AC?5@:><?LNB5@>2. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  48= 87 ?@>5:B>2 D>=40 ">;3>A@>G=>5 0AB>OI55" ("Long Now") 8<55B F5;LN 4;8B5;L=>5 (=0 BKAOG8 ;5B) A>E@0=5=85 8=D>@<0F88. ;O MB>3> 1K; @07@01>B0= "25G=K9" 48A: "Rosetta". = 873>B>2;5= 87 =8:5;O 8 ?>72>;O5B A>E@0=OBL 2 0=0;>3>2>< 2845 4> 350000 AB@0=8F B5:AB0 8 @8AC=:>2 2 B5G5=85 2000-10000 ;5B. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  >15@B -=A>= %09=;09= (Robert A.Heinlein, 1907-1988)  0<5@8:0=A:89 ?8A0B5;L-D0=B0AB. 0720=85 C?><8=05<>3> 6>5< @><0=0 "Have Spacesuit -- Will Travel" 2 @CAA:>9 ?@5AA5 >1KG=> ?5@52>48BAO, :0: "C45B A:0D0=4@ - 1C4CB 8 ?CB5H5AB28O". (?@8<. @54.)  975: 78<>2 (A00: 78<>2, Isaac Asimov, 1920-1992) - >48= 87 8725AB=59H8E ?8A0B5;59-D0=B0AB>2, CG5=K9-18>E8<8: 8 ?>?C;O@870B>@ =0C:8, 02B>@ ?>GB8 ?OB8A>B :=83 - :0: EC4>65AB25==KE, B0: 8 =0CG=KE 8 =0CG=>-?>?C;O@=KE. ?5@2K5 AD>@<C;8@>20; 7=0<5=8BK5 B@8 70:>=0 @>1>B>B5E=8:8. #@>65=5F >AA88 (!<>;5=A:). (?@8<. ?5@52.)  68= (5=5) >445=15@8 (Gene Roddenberry, 1921-1991)  :C;LB>20O D83C@0 <8@>2>9 D0=B0AB8:8. 2B>@ 7=0<5=8B>3> "Star Trek" 2 :=86=>< 8 M:@0==>< 2>?;>I5=88. (?@8<. @54.)  @28=3 !B>C= (Irving Stone,1903-1989) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 ?8A0B5;L. 1I5?@8=OBK9 ?5@52>4 =0720=8O C?><8=05<>9 :=838 "The agony and the ecstasy" - "C:8 8 @04>AB8", => ?5@52>4 "!B@040=85 8 M:AB07" B>G=55. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  8:5;0=465;> A>G8=8; A>=5B, =0G8=0NI89AO: Non ha l' ottimo artista alcun concetto Ch' un marmo solo in se non circonscriva Col suo soverchio; e solo a quello arriva La man che ubbidisce all' intelleto. !B>C= ?5@52>48B MB> B0:: CGH89 EC4>6=8: =5 4C<05B ?>:070BL B>, G53> =5>1@01>B0==K9 :0<5=L 2 A2>59 87;8H=59 A:>@;C?5 =5 A>45@68B; @0718BL <@0<>@=K5 G0@K - MB> 2AQ, GB> <>65B A45;0BL @C:0, A;C60I0O 3>;>25. !B>C= 87>1@0605B ?@>F5AA: "= =5 @01>B0; A @8AC=:0<8 8;8 3;8=O=K<8 <>45;O<8; 2A5 >=8 1K;8 C1@0=K ?@>GL. = 2KA5:0; 87 >1@07>2 2 A2>Q< C<5. 3> 3;070 8 @C:8 7=0;8, 345 4>;6=0 1K;0 ?>O28BLAO :0640O G5@B0, 70:@C3;5=85, <0AA0 8 =0 :0:>9 3;C18=5 2 A5@4F528=5 :0<=O A>740BL 10@5;L5D." ("The agony and the ecstasy". Doubleday, 1961: 6, 144.) (?@8<. 02B.)  !B5D0= >;LD@0< (Stephen Wolfram) - A>740B5;L A8AB5<K "Mathematica". (?@8<. ?5@52.)  >@4>= C@ (Gordon Earl Moore, @. 1916)  =0G8=0; @01>B0BL C 87>1@5B0B5;O B@0=78AB>@0 #.(>:;8, 70B5< AB0; >4=8< 87 >A=>20B5;59 8725AB=>9 D8@<K Fairchild Semiconductor. A=>20B5;L D8@<K =B5;. "0: =07K205<K9 ?5@2K9 70:>= C@0, A>1;N40NI89AO C65 1>;55 35 ;5B, CB25@6405B, GB> ?@>872>48B5;L=>ABL <8:@>AE5< C4208205BAO 2 A@54=5< :064K5 2>A5<=04F0BL <5AOF52. ABL 8 2B>@>9, <5=55 >?B8<8AB8G=K9 70:>= C@0, > :>B>@>< G0AB> 701K20NB: 70B@0BK =0 ?@>872>4AB2> @0ABCB 1KAB@55 2K83@KH0 2 ?@>872>48B5;L=>AB8. @0240, :@82K5 5I5 =5 ?5@5A5:0;8AL, 2 ?@>B82=>< A;CG05 ?@>872>4AB2> 2A5 1>;55 ?@>872>48B5;L=KE G8?>2 AB0;> 1K =52K3>4=K< (?@8<. @54.).  -9<>@8 8 %0=B5@ >28=AK (Amory Lovins, Hunter Lovins) - A>>B25BAB25==> =0CG=K9 @C:>2>48B5;L 8 ?@57845=B =AB8BCB0 >::8 0C=B8= 2 !(. =8 >A=>20;8 MB>B =5:><<5@G5A:89 F5=B@ ?> @07@01>B:5 ?>;8B8:8 2 >1;0AB8 @5AC@A>2 2 1982 3>4C. -9<>@8 >28=A - D878:-M:A?5@8<5=B0B>@, ?>;CG8; >1@07>20=85 2 0@20@45 8 :AD>@45. ';5= 8@>2>3> $>@C<0. ?C1;8:>20; 26 :=83 8 =5A:>;L:> A>B5= AB0B59. %0=B5@ >28=A - 042>:0B, A>F8>;>3, ?>;8B>;>3, ;5A=8: 8 :>21>9. =0 8<55B ?>GQB=CN 4>:B>@A:CN AB5?5=L 8 O2;O5BAO A>02B>@>< <=>38E :=83 8 AB0B59, =0?8A0==KE A>2<5AB=> A -9<>@8 >28=A><. #4>AB>5=0 2<5AB5 A =8< ?@5<89 8AA0=, 8BG5;; 8 ;LB5@=0B82=>9 >15;52A:>9 ?@5<88. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  ">25ABL 42CE 1>B0=8:" ("A tale of two botanies") -9<>@8 8 %0=B5@ >28=A>2 >?C1;8:>20=0 2 6C@=0;5 "Wired" (http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/botanies.html) (?@8<. ?5@52.)  @533 AB5@1@C: (Gregg Easterbrook) - 8740B5;L 6C@=0;0 "B;0=B8G5A:89 565<5AOG=8:" ("Atlantic monthly"). (?@8<. ?5@52.)  8G0@4 $8;8?A $59=<0= (Richard F. Feynman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ngines of creation" by Eric Drexler. =>340 MBC :=83C A>:@0IQ==> =07K20NB ?@>AB> "EOC", =0AB>;L:> >=0 =0HC<5;0. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  "Unbounding the future: the nanotechnology revolution", -@8: @5:A;5@ A>2<5AB=> A @8AB8=>9 5B5@A>= (Christine Peterson) 8 4@C38<8. (?@8<. ?5@52.)   assemblers . > =5?>=OB=>9 ?@8G8=5 2 >B5G5AB25==KE 8AB>G=8:0E G0I5 8A?>;L7C5BAO 8<5==> B5@<8= "0AA5<1;5@K", E>BO B5@<8= "A1>@I8:8" 1>;55 045:20B5=. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  0 A0<>< 45;5 745AL =5?5@52>48<0O 83@0 A;>2: "vampire" >7=0G05B 8 20<?8@0, 8 2K<>30B5;O. 7-70 MB>9 83@K A;>2 HCB:0 ?>;CG05BAO 4>2>;L=> MDD5:B=>9. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  5@20O :>=D5@5=F8O =AB8BCB0 ?@542845=8O ?> =0=>B5E=>;>388 2 >:BO1@5 1989-3> 3>40, ;5:F8O, >703;02;5==0O "C4CI55 2KG8A;5=89". ?C1;8:>20=0 2 @0=40;;5, @540:B>@K .. 8 659<A LN8A. "0=>B5E=>;>38O: 8AA;54>20=8O 8 ?5@A?5:B82K". ("Nanotechnology: research and perspectives". MIT Press, 1992: 269.) !<. B0:65 www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT01/Nano1.html. (?@8<. 02B.)   to a skunk works  ?> <>59 ?@>AL15 8;; 6>9 ?>OA=8; A<KA; 848><K: "A:C=A>2K5 @01>BK" - MB> <5AB>, 345 =51>;LH0O 3@C??0 ;N459 A>740QB GB>-B> 459AB28B5;L=> =>2>5. "0:, =0?@8<5@, #>;B 8A=59 8<5; 3@C??C, A>7402HCN 845N ?0@:0 =0 B5<C 48A=59;5=40. 5@>OB=>, 045:20B=K9 ?5@52>4 - "@01>G0O 3@C??0". (?@8<. ?5@52.)  =AB8BCB ?@542845=8O ("Foresight Institute"). !09B 2 =B5@=5B5: http://www.foresight.org (?@8<. ?5@52.)   gray goo . >;55 B>G=K9 ?5@52>4 - "A5@>5 ;8?:>5" 8;8 "A5@0O ;8?:0O <0AA0", => 2 >B5G5AB25==KE 8AB>G=8:0E MB> G0I5 =07K20NB "A5@>9 A;87LN". (?@8<. ?5@52.)   A2>Q< @><0=5 1963-3> 3>40 ">;K15;L 4;O :>H:8" C@B >==53CB 2>>1@078; :0B0AB@>DC, ?>4>1=CN "A5@>9 A;878", 345 @07=>284=>ABL ;L40, =0720==0O ";Q4 9" 8 70B25@4520NI0O ?@8 3>@074> 1>;55 2KA>:>9 B5<?5@0BC@5, 70<>@068205B >:50=K. (?@8<. 02B.)  !BN0@B >DD<0=. "!0<>2>A?@>872>4AB2>: 4065 ?5?B84K MB> 45;0NB". (Stuart Kauffman. "Self-replication: even peptides do it". Nature, 382, August 8, 1996: 496.) !<. www.santafe.edu/sfi/People/kauffman/sak-peptides.html (?@8<. 02B.)  <55BAO 2 284C ?@>F5AA @5?;8:0F88 .  1953 3>4C #>BA>= 8 @8: ?@54;>68;8 <>45;L ?@>AB@0=AB25==>9 AB@C:BC@K  (42>9=CN A?8@0;L), GB> ?>72>;8;> >1JOA=8BL <=>385 5Q A2>9AB20 8 18>;>38G5A:85 DC=:F88 8 ?>;>68;> =0G0;> <>;5:C;O@=>9 35=5B8:5. 659<A LN8 #>BA>= (D. D. Watson, @. 1928) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 18>E8<8:, 8=>AB@0==K9 G;5=  (1988). $@M=A8A %0@@8 ><?B>= @8: (F. Crick, @. 1916) - 0=3;89A:89 18>D878: 8 35=5B8:. (?@8<. ?5@52)  (38) "Pale blue dot" by Carl Sagan. 0@; !030= (1934-1996) - ?8A0B5;L, ?@>D5AA>@ 0AB@>=><88 >@=CM;LA:>3> C=825@A8B5B0, G;5= !>25B0 ?> <564C=0@>4=K< >B=>H5=8O< 8 8@>2>3> $>@C<0. (?@8<. ?5@52.) 725AB5=, :0: 02B>@ <>45;8  O45@=>9 78<K (- @54.).  (39) >15@B ??5=359<5@ (Oppenheimer Julius Robert, 1904-1967) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 D878:. C:>2>48; (1943-1945) A>740=85< 0<5@8:0=A:>9 0B><=>9 1><1K ( 0=E5BB5=A:89 ?@>5:B ). KABC?8; ?@>B82 A>740=8O 2>4>@>4=>9 1><1K, 2 A2O78 A G5< 2 1953 3>4C 1K; >128=Q= 2 "=5;>O;L=>AB8" 8 >BAB@0=Q= >B A5:@5B=KE @01>B. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  -420@4 "5;;5@ (Edward Teller, @. 1908) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 D878:; @>48;AO 2 5=3@88. #G0AB=8: A>740=8O 0<5@8:0=A:>9 0B><=>9 1><1K 8 @C:>2>48B5;L @01>B ?> A>740=8N 2>4>@>4=>9 1><1K. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  Q@;-%0@1>@ - 2>5==>-<>@A:0O 1070 !( =0 0209A:8E >AB@>20E. 7 45:01@O 1941 3. O?>=A:0O 0280F8O =0=5A;0 2=570?=K9 C40@ ?> 1075 8 2K25;0 87 AB@>O >A=>2=K5 A8;K 0<5@8:0=A:>3> "8E>>:50=A:>3> D;>B0. -B> O28;>AL =0G0;>< 2>9=K =0 "8E>< >:50=5. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  $@8<0= 6>= 09A>= (Freeman Dyson, @. 1923) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 D878:-B5>@5B8:. 48= 87 A>740B5;59 :20=B>2>9 M;5:B@>48=0<8:8. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  "Visions of technology" by Richard Rhodes. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  6>= -;A. "5=L ?>A;5 "@>8FK: 6. >15@B ??5=359<5@ 8 0B><=0O 1><10". (Jon Else. "The day after Trinity: J. Robert Oppenheimer and the atomic bomb".) (4>ABC?=> =0 www.pyramiddirect.com) (?@8<. 02B.)  (45) "N;;5B5=L CGQ=KE-0B><I8:>2" - http://www.bullatomsci.org. "'0AK :>=F0 A25B0" - A8<2>;8G5A:85 G0AK, AB@5;:8 :>B>@KE >B@060NB C3@>7C O45@=>9 :0B0AB@>DK 2 7028A8<>AB8 >B <564C=0@>4=>9 >1AB0=>2:8 (http://www.bullatomsci.org/clock.html). (?@8<. ?5@52.)  (46) -B0 >F5=:0 =0E>48BAO 2 :=835 5A;8 ">=5F A25B0: =0C:0 8 MB8:0 G5;>25G5A:>3> 2K<8@0=8O", 345 >= >B<5G05B, GB> 25@>OB=>ABL 2K<8@0=8O 1C45B 2 7=0G8B5;L=>9 AB5?5=8 2KH5, 5A;8 <K ?@8<5< ">:070B5;LAB2> !C4=>3> 4=O" (>=0 65 "5>@5<0 > :>=F5 A25B0, Doomsday arguement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outledge, 1996: 1, 3, 145.) (?@8<. 02B.) ">:070B5;LAB20 !C4=>3> 4=O": 99% 2A5E 284>2, :>340-;81> ?@>68202H8E =0 ?;0=5B5 5<;O, 2K<5@;8.  1983 3>4C 1@8B0=A:89 :>A<>;>3 @M=4>= 0@B5@ =0?8A0; @01>BC ?>4 =0720=85< ">:070B5;LAB20 !C4=>3> 4=O", ?@54AB02;ONICN A>1>9 AB0B8AB8G5A:85 2K:;04:8 >B=>A8B5;L=> B>3>, :>340 <K A<>65< : =8< ?@8A>548=8BLAO. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  @BC@ '0@;7 ;0@: (Arthur Clarke, @. 1917) - 0=3;89A:89 ?8A0B5;L-D0=B0AB. ! 1956 3>40 682QB 2 (@8-0=:5. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  @BC@ ;0@:. "@57845=BK, M:A?5@BK 8 0AB5@>84K". ("Presidents, experts, and asteroids". Science, June 5, 1998. 5@5?5G0B0=> :0: "Science and society" 2 "Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds!" Collected Essays, 1934-1998. St. Martin's Press, 1999: 526.) (?@8<. 02B.)  , :0: ?@54;0305B M284 $>@@5AB 2 A2>59 AB0BL5 " 53C;8@>20=85 @0728B8O =0=>B5E=>;>388", 4>ABC?=>9 =0 www.foresight.org/NanoRev/Forrest1989.html, "5A;8 <K 8A?>;L7C5< >1J5:B82=CN >B25BAB25==>ABL 2 :0G5AB25 0;LB5@=0B82K 4;O @53C;8@>20=8O, B> =52>7<>6=>, GB>1K 2AO:89 @07@01>BG8: CA2>8; F5=C @8A:0 (@07@CH5=8O 18>AD5@K), B0:8< >1@07><, B5>@5B8G5A:8 45OB5;L=>ABL ?> @0728B8N =0=>B5E=>;>388 =8:>340 =5 A;54C5B ?@54?@8=8<0BL". =0;87 $>@@5AB0 >AB02;O5B =0A B>;L:> A ?@028B5;LAB25==K< @53C;8@>20=85< 4;O =0H59 70I8BK - <KA;L =5 CB5H8B5;L=0O. (?@8<. 02B.)  $@84@8E 8FH5 (Friedrich Nietzsche) (1844-1900) - =5<5F:89 D8;>A>D, ?@54AB028B5;L "D8;>A>D88 687=8", ?@>D5AA>@ :;0AA8G5A:>9 D8;>;>388 075;LA:>3> C=825@A8B5B0 (1869-1879). "2>@G5A:0O 45OB5;L=>ABL 8FH5 >1>@20;0AL 2 1889 3>4C 2 A2O78 A 4CH52=>9 1>;57=LN.  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">;AB>9.  :>=F5 60-E - =0G0;5 70-E 3>4>2 %% 25:0 8458 ">@> ?>;CG8;8 H8@>:CN 8725AB=>ABL 2 :@C30E ;52>@048:0;L=>9 <>;>4568 !(, 845>;>38 :>B>@>9 @0AA<0B@820NB ">@> :0: >4=>3> 87 ?@54H5AB25==8:>2 A>2@5<5==>9 70?04=>9 :>=B@:C;LBC@K. 6>9 ?@82>48B F8B0BC 87 :=838 ">@> "#>;45= 8;8 87=L 2 ;5AC".  @CAA:>< ?5@52>45 B0: (http://lib.ru/INPROZ/TORO/walden.txt): "5 <K 545< ?> 65;57=>9 4>@>35, 0 >=0 - ?> =0H8< B5;0<. C<0;8 ;8 2K :>340-=81C4L > B><, GB> 70 H?0;K C;>65=K =0 65;57=>4>@>6=KE ?CBOE? 0640O H?0;0 - MB> G5;>25:, 8@;0=45F 8;8 O=:8. 5;LAK ?@>;>68;8 ?> ;N4A:8< B5;0<, 70AK?0;8 8E ?5A:>< 8 ?CAB8;8 ?> =8< 203>=K. (?0;K ;560B A<8@=>, >G5=L A<8@=>. '5@57 :064K5 =5A:>;L:> ;5B C:;04K20NB =>2CN ?0@B8N 8 A=>20 54CB ?> =8<; B0: GB> ?>:0 >4=8 8<5NB C4>2>;LAB285 ?5@55760BL ?> 65;57=>9 4>@>35, 4@C38E, <5=55 AG0AB;82KE, >=0 ?5@557605B A0<0." (?@8<. ?5@52.)  MBLN 5A5;LA>=. "@>1;5<0 18>;>38G5A:>3> >@C68O". >40@>: : 1818-><C >G5@54=><C A>1@0=8N <5@8:0=A:>9 0:045<88 8A:CAAB2 8 =0C: 13-3> O=20@O 1999-3> 3>40. (minerva.amacad.org/archive/bulletin4.htm) (?@8<. 02B.)  >; >CB8. "01KB0O >?0A=>ABL: 70?0AK O45@=>3> >@C68O ?>-?@56=5<C ?@54AB02;ONB =081>;LHCN C3@>7C 4;O F828;870F88". (Paul Doty. "The forgotten menace: nuclear weapons stockpiles still represent the biggest threat to civilization". Nature, 402, December 9, 1999: 583.) (?@8<. 02B.)  0=A ;L1@5EB 5B5 (Hans Bethe, @. 1906) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 D878:-B5>@5B8:, @>4>< 87 5@<0=88, ;0C@50B >15;52A:>9 ?@5<88 (1967) 70 8AA;54>20=8O 2 0AB@>D878:5. >A;5 C=8GB>65=8O %8@>A8<K 8 030A0:8 1K; 2 G8A;5 B5E, :B> A>7=020; A2>N >B25BAB25==>ABL 70 :0B0AB@>DC. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  !<. B0:65 ?8AL<> 0=A0 5B5 1997-3> 3>40 : ?@57845=BC ;8=B>=C =0 www.fas.org/bethecr.htm. (?@8<. 02B.)  &8B0B0 87 :=838 ">@> "#>;45= 8;8 87=L 2 ;5AC".  @CAA:>< ?5@52>45 B0:: "... 81> 1>30BAB2> G5;>25:0 87<5@O5BAO G8A;>< 25I59, >B :>B>@KE 5<C ;53:> >B:070BLAO." (?@8<. ?5@52.)  0: BB0;8 (Jacques Attali) @>48;AO 2 ;68@5 2 1943 3>4C. K; 3;02=K< A>25B=8:>< ?@57845=B0 $@0=F88. /2;O5BAO G;5=>< 8;L45@15@3A:>3> :;C10. ! 1991 3>40 - 3;020 "2@>?59A:>3> 0=:0 5:>=AB@C:F88 8 0728B8O". 2B>@ 45AOB:0 :=83. 8 <0@B0 2001 3>40 70 ?@8G0AB=>ABL : =570:>==K< ?>AB02:0< >@C68O 87 @5A?C1;8: 1K2H53> !!!  2 =3>;C 1K; 70:;NGQ= ?>4 AB@06C, >4=0:> 2 B>B 65 45=L 70 1 <;=. D@0=:>2 1K; >B?CI5= =0 A2>1>4C.  :=835 "8=88 3>@87>=B0" ("Lignes d'horizons", 2 0=3;89A:>< ?5@52>45 - "Millennium", GB> ?5@52>48BAO =0 @CAA:89 2 40==>< A;CG05 :0:  >;>B>9 25: ) 0: BB0;8 @0718@05B M2>;NF8N =0H53> >1I5AB20, 27OB>3> =0 <8@>2>< C@>2=5, =0 1C4CICN G5B25@BL 25:0, 0 B0:65 8AA;54C5B ACI=>ABL 53> M:>=><8G5A:>9, ?>;8B8G5A:>9, A>F80;L=>9 8 845>;>38G5A:>9 >@30=870F88. > <=5=8N 0:0 BB0;8, 45<>:@0B8O - MB> =08;CGH0O ?>;8B8G5A:0O A8AB5<0, ">@3>2K9 !B@>9 - 42830B5;L ?@>3@5AA0, 2A5<>3CI5AB2> 45=53 - A0<K9 A?@0254;82K9 ?>@O4>: ?@02;5=8O. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  "Fraternites" by Jacques Attali. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  Dalai Lama, "Ethics for the new millennium". (?@8<. ?5@52.)  -48B 0<8;LB>=. "@5G5A:89 ?CBL". (Edith Hamilton. "The Greek way". W.W. Norton & Co., 1942: 35.) (?@8<. 02B.)  C48 ;;5= (Woody Allen, =0AB>OI55 8<O - ;;5= !BLN0@B Q=83A15@3) (@. 1935) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 :8=>@568AAQ@, 0:BQ@, AF5=0@8AB, ?8A0B5;L. (?@8<. ?5@52.)  @0CG> 0@:A (1890-1977) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 :><8:. 8;;8 59A (@. 1931) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 159A1>;8AB 50-60-E 3>4>2. C8 @<AB@>=3 (1901-1971) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 <C7K:0=B, >;8F5B2>@5=85 46070. 0@;>= @0=4> (@. 1924) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 :8=>0:BQ@ 8 8725AB=K9 A:0=40;8AB. $@M=: !8=0B@0 (1915-1998) - 0<5@8:0=A:89 ?525F 8 :8=>0:BQ@. >;L "@59A8 2 D8;L<5 "0=EMBB5=" 83@0;0 17-;5B=OO 0:B@8A0 M@8M; %5<8=3CM9. (?@8<. ?5@52.)   4@C38E :>=B5:AB0E, ?>=OB85 > =08;CGH59 AC1J5:B82=>9 >F5=:5 <>65B 1KBL ?@54AB02;5=> :0: @K=>G=K5 AB02:8 =0 A>>B25BAB2CNI85 ?@8BO70=8O =0 =0=85 > C4CI5< ( Idea Future ' s claim ) (Hanson 1995: 3 33). -B> 70<5G0=85 <>65B ?><>GL 2 :0G5AB25 8;;NAB@0F88 ?>4@07C<5205<>9 :>=F5?F88, => =5 <>65B A;C68BL >?@545;5=85<. 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(Drexler 1985, 1988; Freitas 2000; Gubrud 2000; Foresight Institute 1997 1991; McCarthy 2000; Forrest 1989; Jeremiah 1995) [23,25,26,41,96-99].  07C<55BAO, CA8;5=85 8=B5;;5:B0 <>65B A45;0BL >B@8F0B5;L=KE ?5@A>=0659 1>;55 A?>A>1=K<8 ?@>42830BL A2>8 7;>AB=K5 0<18F88, 8 A8AB5<K :>=B@>;O <>3CB 1KBL 8A?>;L7>20=K 48:B0B>@A:8< @568<0<8 (8 <>;>B:8 <>6=> 8A?>;L7>20BL 4;O @071820=8O G5@5?>2). '8AB0O 1;03>40BL @54:> 70E>48B 2 3>AB8.. > 2 AC<<5 :065BAO, GB> MB8 B5E=>;>388 AB>8B ?@>42830BL.  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A;8 ?@8=OBL MBC B>G:C 7@5=8O, =K=5H=89 <8@>2>9 C@>25=L A<5@B=>AB8 2 150 000 G5;>25: 2 45=L O2;O5BAO G0ABLN ?@>8AE>4OI59 A59G0A, ?>B5=F80;L=> 3;>10;L=>9 :0B0AB@>DK (A:@8?), :>B>@0O 2K7K205B >3@><=K5 G5;>25G5A:85 AB@040=8O.  !>3;0A=> John Rawls (Rawls 1999), B5@<8= <0:A<8= B0:65 8A?>;L7C5BAO 2 4@C3>< A<KA;5 2 M:>=><8:5 1;03>A>AB>O=8O, 4;O >?@545;5=8O ?@8=F8?0 (A CG5B>< @O40 206=KE >3@0=8G5=89), GB> <K 4>;6=K 2K18@0BL A>AB>O=85, :>B>@>5 >?B8<0;L=> A B>G:8 7@5=8O >6840=89 =08<5=55 A>AB>OB5;L=KE :;0AA>2. -B0 25@A8O ?@8=F8?0 =5 70B@038205BAO 2 ?>A;54CNI8E @0AAC645=8OE.  8;0= &8@:>28F (Milan Cirkovic) C:07K205B =0 B>, GB> A25@E8725@65=85 2C;:0=0 Toba (73000 ;5B 4> .%.) <>65B AG8B0BLAO A>1KB85<, 5420 =5 ?@8254H8< : 8AB@51;5=8N G5;>25G5AB20. 7@K2 8 ?>A;54CNI0O 78<0 C18;8 1>;LHCN G0ABL G5;>25G5AB20; 35=5B8G5A:85 A2845B5;LAB20 ?@54?>;030NB, GB> 1K;> B>;L:> =5A:>;L:> BKAOG 2K682H8E, 8;8 4065 <5=LH5. [Ambrose, 1998.] B<5BLB5, GB> MB> A>1KB85 >BACBAB2C5B 2 =0H59 8AB>@8G5A:>9 ?0<OB8  >=> ?@54H5AB2C5B 2>7=8:=>25=8N ?8AL<5==>AB8.  ".5. 8<5NI8< 25@>OB=>ABL ?>@O4:0 >4=>3> =0 <8;;80@4 <8;;80@4>2. >B<5BLB5, GB> ?>:070B5;L 44% >B=>A8BAO :> 2A5< 2840< 187=5A0, 2:;NG0O <0;5=L:85 @5AB>@0=K, 0 =5 B>;L:> :, 4>?CAB8<, 4>B-:>< AB0@B0?0<. >C7 [Dawes, 1988]  >=>=>2 ;5:A0=4@ =0B>;L528G, :0=4840B B5E=8G5A:8E =0C:, AB0@H89 =0CG=K9 A>B@C4=8: =AB8BCB0 A8AB5<=>3> 0=0;870 >AA89A:>9 0:045<88 =0C:, G;5= >AA89A:>3> D8;>A>DA:>3> >1I5AB20 ,  HYPERLINK "mailto:kononov@isa.ru" kononov@isa.ru  -B>B 70:>= 8725AB5= 2 =5A:>;L:> A<O3G5==>9, =5 C2O70==>9 A ?@>1;5<0B8:>9 :>A<8G5A:>9 M:A?0=A88 8 :>=:C@5=B>A?>A>1=>AB8 F828;870F88, D>@<C;8@>2:5 :0: 70:>= B5E=>-3C<0=8B0@=>3> 10;0=A0 [070@5BO= . ., 2004, A. 112]: G5< 2KH5 <>IL ?@>872>4AB25==KE 8 1>52KE B5E=>;>389, B5< 1>;55 A>25@H5==K5 A@54AB20 :C;LBC@=>9 @53C;OF88 =5>1E>48<K 4;O A>E@0=5=8O >1I5AB20.     G. Cocconi and P. Morrison. Searching for Interstellar Communications. 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