ࡱ> XZW%` 0%bjbj .H̟̟nnnnnnnjjjj\,.pnnnnI(.*.*.*.*.*.*.$0h3dN.nIIN.nnnnc.nnnn(.(.+nn,-n Faj,(.y.0.,~k3k3$,-,-Hk3nt-#}t###N.N.###. nnnnnn Statistics 118 Regression Analysis Fall 2010 6:10-7:25 MW Funger Hall 103 Instructor: Dr. Efstathia Bura Office: 2140 Pennsylvania Ave., Rm 201 Office Phone: (202) 994-6358 Office Hours: MW: 4:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., or by appointment. Email: ebura@gwu.edu (Preferred means of communication) TA: Somak Chatterjee ( HYPERLINK "mailto:somakp@gwmail.gwu.edu" somakp@gwmail.gwu.edu, Office Hrs Th 3:00-5:00) and Mohammed Chowdhury ( HYPERLINK "mailto:mohammed@gwmail.gwu.edu" mohammed@gwmail.gwu.edu, Office Hrs: Wed 12:00-2:00) TA Office: 2140 Pennsylvania Ave., Basement. A one semester introductory course in regression analysis. It covers the basic ideas of Applied Regression Analysis including: Simple Linear Regression; Residual Analysis; Multiple Regression; Parameter Estimation and Testing; Indicator Variables; Diagnostics; Model Selection Procedures; logistic regression. The course will cover the material in chapters 1-10, parts of chapters 11, 12 and 14 of the textbook. Any changes will be announced in class. PREREQUISITES Knowledge of the basic concepts of probability and statistics (Stat 51, 53, or 111). TEXTS Required : Applied Linear Regression Models, Revised Edition with Student CD, 4th edition, 2004, Kutner, et al; ISBN: 0073014664, McGraw-Hill. Recommended: i) Student Solutions Manual; ISBN: 007291839X, McGraw-Hill. ii) SAS and SPSS Program Solutions for use with ALRM, 4e, ISBN: 0072989580, Replogle-Johnson. You need a calculator for this course; please bring to class. COURSE STRUCTURE: The class consists of two lectures and one lab per week. Your grade is based on homework, projects, two midterms and the final. LEARNING OUTCOMES: As a result of completing this course, students will: learn basic methods required for data analysis and interpretation understand basic concepts of correlation, regression, model diagnostics and model building learn how to fit and interpret regression models and apply them in various fields (e.g. Finance, Economics) analyze and interpret regression data using SAS compare different competing regression models and select the best. draw conclusions and communicate analysis results GRADING homework and quizzes 25% computer projects 15% midterm exams 40% final exam 20% HOMEWORK: Homework will be assigned almost every week. The majority of the homeworks will be collected and graded. All students must work independently on the homework sets. HW will be collected on the due date before the lecture starts. Late submission will not be accepted. Your TA will go over problems similar to the HW problems and SAS examples during lab sessions. SAS PROJECTS: There will be at least two (one individual and one group) computer projects involving the use of SAS to statistically analyze data. A report along with the SAS code and SAS output will be turned in. MIDTERM EXAMS: Two closed book midterm examinations will be given. If a midterm is missed, you will receive zero credit for that part of the grade. No make-up midterm will be given. In exceptional circumstances (e.g. well-documented medical problems), a missed midterm will not be counted. FINAL EXAM: The final exam will be a comprehensive exam. This 2-hour exam is scheduled for Monday, December 20, 7:40-9:40pm. There will be no make-up final. If you miss the final exam because of a medical emergency, you must provide a written medical excuse in order to obtain an incomplete in the course, provided your score up to the final is passing. A grade of INCOMPLETE will ONLY be given to a student who is passing the course and cannot complete the course due to illness r other (well documented) circumstances beyond their control. EXAM DATES: Midterm 1: October 13 Midterm 2: November 22 Final: December 20, 7:40-9:40pm COURSE OUTLINE Review of the basic concepts from probability and statistics, Introduction to Linear Models: Simple Linear Regression Examples, Assumptions for Linear Models, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimators, R2, Residuals Inference in Linear Regression: inference for the slope and the intercept, interpretation of results, prediction, F-tests Regression Diagnostics: outliers, influential points, graphical diagnostics, remedies, weighted least squares Matrix Algebra Regression in matrix notation, multiple regression: estimation, prediction, diagnostics, nested models, multicollinearity, ridge regression, qualitative predictors, mixture of continuous and categorical variables, model building/selection and model validation, Regression models with binary response, simple and multiple logistic regression, inference goodness of fit tests, diagnostics Statistical Packages: You will need to use a statistical package in order to perform most of the statistical analyses covered in this course. We will focus on SAS. A brief introduction to the SAS package can be found at  HYPERLINK "http://www.umass.edu/statdata/software/handouts/sas_online/" http://www.umass.edu/statdata/software/handouts/sas_online/ ACADEMIC INTEGRITY I personally support the GW Code of Academic Integrity. It states:: Academic dishonesty is defined as cheating of any kind, including misrepresenting one's own work, taking credit for the work of others without crediting them and without appropriate authorization, and the fabrication of information. For the remainder of the code, see:  HYPERLINK "http://www.gwu.edu/~ntegrity/code.html" http://www.gwu.edu/~ntegrity/code.html SUPPORT FOR STUDENTS OUTSIDE THE CLASSROOM DISABILITY SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) Any student who may need an accommodation based on the potential impact of a disability should contact the Disability Support Services office at 202-994-8250 in the Marvin Center, Suite 242, to establish eligibility and to coordinate reasonable accommodations. For additional information please refer to:  HYPERLINK "http://gwired.gwu.edu/dss/" http://gwired.gwu.edu/dss/ UNIVERSITY COUNSELING CENTER (UCC) 202-994-5300 The University Counseling Center (UCC) offers 24/7 assistance and referral to addressstudents'personal, social, career, and study skillsproblems. Services for students include: crisis and emergency mental health consultations confidential assessment, counseling services (individual and small group), and referrals htt HYPERLINK "http://gwired.gwu.edu/counsel/CounselingServices/AcademicSupportServices/" \o "http://gwired.gwu.edu/counsel/CounselingServices/AcademicSupportServices/" p://gwired.gwu.edu/counsel/CounselingServices/AcademicSupportServices SECURITY In the case of an emergency, if at all possible, the class should shelter in place. If the building that the class is in is affected, follow the evacuation procedures for the building. After evacuation, seek shelter at a predetermined rendezvous location. BLACKBOARD REGISTRATION: Course information and materials, including notes, grades, and details about course assignments and exams will be posted in Blackboard periodically. It is the students responsibility to check the Stat 118 Blackboard website frequently for up-to-date information about assignments. Once enrolled in the course, you should automatically be registered on Blackboard. 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