ࡱ>      %` bjbjٕ 4(y%K(      ***8*+D ,:R,"t,t,t,-t-$. $ihіx. PB--PBPB. pt,t,CHHHHHHPBz t, t,HHPBHHHH|  ~t, , y0*D ~,ܐ,Y08~tIFZIX~I ~03.4HH9=3.3.3...Gj3.3.3.PBPBPBPB              Lessons from New Deal Banking reforms Ellen D. Russell russell.ellen@gmail.com Introduction Jane DAristas contributions to the study of US financial history are outstanding in many respects. DArista has beckoned a generation of heterodox financial scholars to investigate the complex ways that financial regulation shapes (and is shaped by) its distinctive historical and institutional context. From her early commissioned study on the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, to her work for the US Congress at the House Banking Committee and the Telecommunications and Finance Committee, DArista developed an acute sensitivity to the interaction of these contextually specific factors and theoretical and policy debates. This research culminated in DAristas The Evolution of U.S. Finance, which continues to serve as reference book for the community of heterodox financial scholars. In a discipline that all too often occludes these historical and institutional specificities behind decontextualized models, DAristas persistent attention to these contextual complexities continues to produce insights that would be unavailable in historically and institutionally unsophisticated theorizing. DArista consistently applies this historical and institutional acumen to the investigation of financial regulatory initiatives that are supportive of progressive economic policy. She anticipated subsequent heterodox study of domestic financial regulation at a time when attention paid to the relationships between financial regulation and progressive economic policy was largely preoccupied with the study of international finance. Thanks in large part to the influence of Mundell-Flemings analysis of the irreconcilable trinity, Bretton Woods has been viewed as supportive of the welfare state in that it enabled national governments to impose capital controls and thereby navigate this trilemma. While this extensive scholarship on the international dimensions of financial regulation during the welfare state era continues to inform contemporary efforts to reconsider international financial architecture, scholarship on ways in which national (or subnational) financial regulatory structures supported the economic policies characteristic of the welfare state has received less attention. DAristas contributions to the study of American finance have been an important exception to this relative neglect of domestic financial issues in the analysis of the welfare state. The chapter that follows state emulates DAristas historically and institutionally focused approach, and its specific concern is the design of domestic financial architecture that is supportive of progressive economic interventions characteristic of the welfare state. It focuses on a historical period that of the Great Depression- in which the New Deal redesign of domestic financial architecture was one of the first acts of the New Deal economic reform agenda. In the midst of the persistent banking crisis during the Great Depression, the Roosevelt administration acted quickly to introduce sweeping financial reforms. It quickly passed the Banking Act of 1933, which instituted several important financial reforms such as the introduction of federal deposit insurance. The Acts Glass-Steagall subsections dramatically reshaped the financial landscape by separating commercial and investment banking. This New Deal domestic financial architecture persisted throughout the post-war golden age of the welfare state in the US. In contrast to contemporary portrayals of finance as a hegemonic and destabilizing influence, this era of pax financus (Hayes 1978, 2) has been depicted as a period in which finance has been depicted as the servant rather than the master in economic and political matters (Helleiner 1994, 5). The erosion of the regulatory framework coincided with an era of increased domestic financial innovation and instability, culminating in the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 followed by the subsequent domestic financial travails of the 2000s. As is the case with DAristas financial scholarship, this paper is not prompted solely by retrospective interest. Despite the many differences between the 1930s and todays financial environment, this paper makes the case that lessons from the New Deal financial reforms may be instructive today. In the 1920s, as in the 1990s, exuberance about a new era of economic prosperity culminated in a stock market bubble at a time when traditional commercial banking activity was under considerable pressure. In both periods, stock market euphoria was accompanied by demands to dispense with the previous regulatory constraints on finance. In particular, there was intense and ultimately successful pressure on regulators to remove impediments to the combination of commercial and investment banking. Following the stock market decline in both the early 1930s and the early 2000s, the ensuing financial scandals were (in part) attributed to the various conflicts of interest that plague the combination of commercial and investment banking. In both the 1930s and 2000s, these conflicts of interest were retrospectively viewed as having promoted financial innovations that were subsequently viewed as having compromised financial stability. Thus, despite the profound differences in these historical periods, similar controversies have emanated from the blending of commercial and investment, and these similarities invite a reconsideration of the merits - and drawbacks - of the New Deal experience of financial reform. The motivations of this chapter are three-fold. First, it explores the role of New Deal banking reforms, and particularly the Glass-Steagall Act, in supporting the economic reforms of the New Deal and the subsequent evolution of Welfare state capitalism in the United States. Secondly, it discusses how the tensions inherent in this regulatory framework contributed the evolution of finance in more recent times. Finally, it considers how the insights derived from this analysis contribute to our re-thinking of proposals for contemporary financial reform. The Historical And Institutional Context Prompting The New Deal Banking Reforms New Dealers faced very challenging historical circumstances: the repercussions of the 1929 stock market crash, successive rounds of bank failures and a general domestic and international economic decline culminated in the persistent economic turmoil of the Great Depression. Roosevelt was obliged to declare a national bank holiday immediately after his inauguration, thereby recognizing the urgency of financial reform. Defaults on loans in an environment of falling incomes and widespread unemployment, together with the devaluation of the collateral backing those loans, contributed to an acute crisis in commercial banking. A downward spiral was generated as the loss of confidence in bank solvency provoked bank runs, which in turn produced bank failures and further undermined confidence (see figure 4). State and nationally-chartered commercial banks in operation dropped from 24,258 in 1929 to 15,021 by 1934. These disastrous circumstances culminated in an acute profitability crisis for surviving commercial banks. While the return on assets hovered between 0.99 percent and 1.19 percent throughout the 1920s, it had dipped to -1.07 percent by 1933 (see Figure 5). While profitability problems among commercial banks did nothing to enhance public confidence in the banking system, but these profitability problems also had other ramifications. Epstein and Ferguson (1984) argue that expansionary monetary policy was thwarted in part because of the perverse implications of this crisis in commercial bank profitability. Before the Banking Act of 1933, commercial banks paid interest on demand deposits. This represented a serious burden to commercial banks facing both substantial loan losses and dismal earnings on their loan portfolios. In response to this dilemma, and to enhance their liquidity in the event of further banking panics, banks increasingly held short-term government securities. By 1932, investments (mostly in government securities) comprised 50 percent of bank earning portfolios among members of the Federal Reserve System (Epstein and Ferguson, 1984, 969). This situation created an important obstacle to expansionary monetary policy. Epstein and Ferguson argue that the Federal Reserve briefly experimented with open market operations to increase the money supply, but the unintended result of this policy was to further squeeze bank profits by diminishing banks earnings on their government securities. Alarmed by this additional drag on their profitability, commercial banks succeeded in pressuring the Federal Reserve to abandon expansionary monetary policy. In constructing their banking reforms, the architects of New Deal banking reforms confronted a number of institutional and historical factors that were viewed as contributing to the somewhat precarious history US banking system. Particular historical and institutional factors had produced a relatively large number of commercial banks in the United States domestic market. The national Banking Act of 1863 (and other previous state banking laws) embraced Free banking, the principle that the any firm should be allowed to enter commercial banking so long as it satisfied certain rather minimal general conditions that were uniformly applied to all market entrants. By the 1930s, the principle of free banking was criticized as encouraging lenient capital requirements that contributed to dubious bank solvency and sometimes notorious banking practices. Large numbers of rather leniently regulated commercial banks were also encouraged by the United States dual banking system, in which commercial banks may be organized at the state or national levels. This creates multiple regulatory structures, with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency regulating national commercial banks and various state authorities (and the Federal Reserve to various extents over time) regulating state banks. Under these circumstances, regulatory agencies compete with each other to charter and regulate commercial banks. Competitive chartering provides banks with the opportunity to threaten to change the jurisdiction in which they are chartered in order to compel regulators to match or exceed the permissiveness of rival jurisdictions. This creates what F. G. Awalt, acting Comptroller of the Currency, described in 1932 as a competition in laxity (in Wheelock, 1992, 6).  Finally a number of regional factors culminated in an effective lobby against interstate banking and sometimes resulted in unit banking laws (i.e. the prohibition on branching), which further contributed to the large numbers of commercial banks. The term over-banking was coined to refer to the intense competition in a crowded commercial banking market. (see figure 1). In their retrospective examinations of the banking crises of the early 1930s, many regulatory authorities argued that the competitive pressures generated by over-banking enticed banks to migrate towards heightened risks. J.F.T. OConnor, a prominent financial regulator privy to the high level policy debates of the New Deal era, claimed that [b]anks became too numerous; competition too great; necessity for profit too urgent (1938, 7).  The problem of over-banking was not the only dilemma faced by commercial banks in the 1920s. In a booming stock market, accessing investment capital via securities markets became an increasingly attractive alternative to bank loans. Parker Willis, a prominent advisor to Carter Glass and vocal proponent of the Glass-Steagall Act, argued that: A new era had arrived in the years 1921-1929 in which: corporations came more and more to avoid borrowing at banks, and to substitute therefore the practice of providing themselves with working capital in the stock market. () This new era was to be one in which the business enterprise would no longer be dependent upon the bank and would resort to the public in order to satisfy its needs for capital (Willis, in Willis and Chapman, 1934, 35). Under these circumstances, the Decline of the Commercial Loan was heralded in the pages of the Quarterly Journal of Economics by Lauchlin Currie in 1931. Currie reported that commercial loans expressed as a percentage of the total earning assets of national banks declined from 57.5 percent in 1920 to 37 percent in 1929. As the 1920s progressed, the traditional role of commercial banks was under pressure both from over-banking within the commercial banking sector and competition from investment banks (and trust companies). In this context, profitable opportunities associated with the booming stock market were enticing, and commercial banks sought entry into investment banking. Banks previous attempts to expand into securities underwriting had been curtailed by the regulator of the nationally-chartered commercial banks, the Comptroller of the Currency (Carosso, 1970, 97). Commercial banks attempted to circumvent these restrictions via securities affiliates, but the growth of these securities affiliates was constrained because of legal disputes, regulatory uncertainties, and potential anti-trust concerns. By the mid-1920s, many state jurisdictions had been prevailed upon to allow state-chartered commercial banks to migrate into investment banking activities. In 1927, the remaining obstacles were surmounted by the passage of the McFadden Act, which enabled nationally-chartered banks to fully engage in securities underwriting via the creation of securities affiliates. (The McFadden Act is perhaps more often remembered for its prevention of bank expansion across state lines, thereby contributing to the perpetuation of the over-banking dilemma.) The passage of the McFadden Act marked the full-scale regulatory embrace of financial conglomerates that blended commercial and investment banking. A surge of mergers among commercial banks and free-standing investment banks followed, and by 1929 nearly every large urban commercial bank had one or more securities affiliates (Carosso, 1970, 278). From the perspective of the New Dealers, this entry of commercial banks into investment banking contributed to the financial disarray of the 1930s. One recurrent theme of this critique was that the blending of commercial and investment banking created conflicts of interest that influenced the commercial banks lending activities in ways that were deleterious to bank stability. The general outlines of these critiques are resonant today. A commercial bank may be less vigilant about the quality of its loans if it believes that it can use the investment banks underwriting capabilities to relieve it of problem borrowers. The investment banking arm might enable problem borrowers to issue securities and thereby repay their loans. (A more contemporary example might include the possiblity that the commercial bank dilutes its lending standards for say home mortgages insofar as it intends to pass these loans on to investment banks to be securitized). The commercial banking arm of a financial conglomerate may also be compelled to use its lending portfolio to further the agenda of the investment banking arm. Loans may be advanced to finance the purchase securities (possibly with the securities themselves acting as collateral). Investment banks may be better situated to attract underwriting business if they can lend funds to firms in the period prior to the issuance of securities. It is also possible (although often illegal) for a diversified financial capitalist firm to engage in loan-tying (making the availability of credit conditional on other business interactions). Loans might be made to the investment banking arm itself (or, if this is prohibited, less overt means of accomplishing the same thing may be devised) to finance the carrying of inventories of securities or to enable the investment bank to trade on its own account (to trade securities in pursuit of capital gains). The Pecora-Gray hearings (1932-1934) publicized many notorious activities alleged to have occurred thanks to the conflicts of interest and speculative excess encouraged by the blending of commercial and investment banking. For example, National City Bank (the worlds second largest bank at the time and predecessor of todays Citigroup) and its securities affiliate, National City Company (the USs largest investment bank in the late 1920s), stood publicly accused of all sorts of dubious and possibly illegal practices stemming from the interaction of their commercial and investment banking arms. The growing tendency of Federal Reserve member banks to make loans on securities at the same time that they were becoming more involved with investment banking can be regarded as evidence of this propensity (see figure 7). When the stock market crashed, many of these loans were highly compromised, particularly in situations in which corporate securities themselves had been presented as collateral for the initial loans. To the degree that commercial bank loan portfolios were dependant on the performance of stock markets, instability in securities markets was transmitted to the commercial banking system.  Figure 1: Commercial Bank Loans Made on Securities as a Percentage of Total Commercial Bank Loans Source: Banking and Monetary Statistics. If commercial bank lending is influenced by investment banking considerations, this may have problematic consequences for bank stability. If a banks loan portfolio is connect4ed to securities markets, a crisis in securities markets could create a sudden upswing in non-performing loans. Moreover, the moral hazard dilemma implied by the government safety net for banks may interact with the conflicts of interest that animate the blending of commercial and investment banking to create further incentives for commercial banks to expose themselves to the vagaries of securities markets. In the event that problems in securities markets are transmitted to commercial banks, state officials may be obliged to broaden the so-called narrow linkage between commercial banks and access to the safety net (a concern that is renewed with the recent Federal Reserve actions vis--vis Bear Stearns). During the tumultuous unfolding of a financial crisis, a financial conglomerate may succeed in misrepresenting a non-commercial banking crisis as one emanating from commercial banking activities. It is also possible that state officials may understand that the problems of a firm in distress are rooted in its investment banking activities, but they fear that the crisis within the firm as a whole may provoke contagion effects within the commercial banking system. To the extent that investment banking considerations expose commercial banks to the instabilities emanating from securities markets, the state may be compelled to regard entire non-banking financial markets as too-big-to-fail.  Of course, internal firewalls and/or restrictions on the types of permissible corporate forms may be constructed to alleviate these conflicts of interest and insulate the banking system from these pressures. But such mechanisms are always in jeopardy if their breach opens profitable opportunities for both synergies between the commercial and investment banking and new opportunities to impose upon the safety net. Carter Glass, a recognized authority in banking matters owing to his role in the creation of the Federal Reserve System, led the call to place the prohibition on blending commercial and investment banking at the centre of the reform of American finance. For some time, Glass had argued that the relationship between commercial banks and their investment banking affiliates had contaminated the banking system with stock gamblers (Glass, 1929), resulting in the misapplication of credit for speculative purposes which deprives legitimate business of funds ( see Willis, in Willis and Chapman, 1934, 53). The extensive study co-authored by Glass confidante Parker Willis depicts a slippery slope in which the investment banking arms of commercial banks created increasing pressure to intertwine commercial bank loan portfolios with the fortunes of securities markets during the 1920s: Ultimately, Willis concludes that the blending of commercial and investment banking was an ill-advised experiment in American finance: Accordingly, the tendency of investment banking to develop as a parasitic growth, drawing its support from commercial banking and constituting a diversion of the funds of the latter, notwithstanding that they were normally called-for as a means of liquidating demand obligations, presented numerous elements of danger, which did not, however, secure recognition at an early date. As often happens in financial development, it was an incidental phase of investment banking which originally operated to bring to the front the hazards that were involved in the maintenance of commercial and investment banking as phases of the activity of the same institution (Willis, in Willis and Chapman, 1934, 178). Financial conglomerates, tainted by their association with the reviled money-trusts, became emblematic of the abuses of financiers. Under these circumstances, it was politically feasible to act on this growing critique of finance to implement an ambitious program of financial reforms. The anti-finance sentiment of the early 1930s created opportunities for the Roosevelt administration to intervene in the re-organization of the financial sector in ways that might have been considered far too radical in its absence of public animosity towards finance. And finance largely acquiesced to these reforms, possibly because they feared other alternatives that it found even less appealing. Rumors of nationalization circulated prior to the Banking Act of 1933, and such rumors were occasionally inflamed by comments such as those of Albert Agnew, General Counsel for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who warned ominously from the pages of a banking periodical: Either the bankers of this country will realize that they are guardians of the moneys committed to their charge, and will conduct themselves accordingly, or banking will cease to be a private enterprise and will become a purely government function (in Burns, 1974, 73). New Deal Banking Reforms Given the simultaneous existence of a banking crisis and a general economic depression, the architects of New Deal banking reforms faced several simultaneous challenges. It was imperative that the stability of the banking system, and that financial system in general, be restored. One aspect of this stabilization of banking was resolving the crisis in bank profitabilty. However, this new regulatory template could not restore bank profitability in a manner that might undermine the larger objectives of economic recovery and growth. This section makes the case that deliberately or fortuitously New Deal banking reforms supported both of these agendas. But despite the dexterity with which these financial reforms pursued both financial stability and economic growth, they also set in motion tensions that contributed to undermining the New Deal regulatory framework with the passage of time. The Banking Act of 1933 emphasized the deterrence of speculation as a cornerstone of financial stability. The Glass-Steagall provisions of the Act sought to curtail speculation by addressing the conflicts of interest which animate the blending of commercial and investment banking. Section 20 of the Act required commercial banks belonging to the Federal Reserve System to divest themselves of their securities affiliates within one year. In combination with several other subsections of the Act, this ended the combination of commercial and investment banking in the United States. (An exception was made to enable commercial banks to engage in the underwriting and dealing of certain government securities). Ironically, the Glass-Steagall Act placed further constraints on commercial banks profitability, insofar as the separation of commercial and investment banking largely foreclosed the possiblity that banks might supplement their profitability via non-banking financial activities. Thus Glass-Steagall forced banks to rely on commercial banking at a time when commercial banking was in crisis. Thus it was imperative that the core business of accepting deposits and making loans be profitable. One determinant of the profitability of this core banking business is the spread between the interest paid by banks to attract deposits, and the interest paid to banks on loans. Of course, the profitability of banks could be enhanced by increasing the interest received on loans, but this would be detrimental to the larger agenda of economic recovery. Thus several provisions of the Banking Act were supportive of commercial bank profitability by other means. Despite objections of creeping socialism, the Act created federal deposit insurance, which buttressed public confidence in the banking system. In addition, interest rate controls were instituted that that limited the payment of interest on deposits. Deposit insurance and interest rate controls worked together to support commercial bank profitability. The security conferred by deposit insurance compensated depositors for forgone interest income under the regime of New Deal interest rate controls. By the end of the 1930s, deposits grew 81% from their low point in 1933, yet the total interest paid by Federal Reserve member banks on deposits declined from $287 million in 1933 to just under $160 million by 1939 (Russell, 2008, 71-2). Under these circumstances, the commercial banking sector was returned to profitabilty.  Figure 2: Bank Deposits, Federal Reserve member Banks, 1920-1941 Source: Banking and Monetary Statistics  Figure 3: Interests Paid on Deposit per Dollar of Deposits Attracted at Federal Reserve Member Banks Source: Banking and Monetary Statistics.  Figure 4: Total Interest Paid on Deposits at Federal Reserve Member Banks Source: Banking and Monetary Statistics.  Figure 5:Return on Assets 1933-1999, FDIC-Member Commercial Banks Sources: FDIC, HSOB, Tables CB04 and CB09. However, several institutional factors provoked the Banking Act of 1935 to take additional measures to safeguard bank profitability. Over-banking continued to be a problem, given that ban on interstate banking continued, and Senator Glass efforts to allow state-wide branching by national banks failed (see Russell, 2008, 73-74). The FDIC became an important source of pressure to eliminate unfettered competition among banks, and instead sought to create conditions of rightful competition in commercial banking (FDIC, 1998, 33). This culminated in the elimination of free banking in the Banking Act of 1935. The Act gave chartering bodies a degree of discretion over entry into commercial banking, and one of the criteria that had to be met before a new commercial bank could be chartered included regulatory consideration of the future earnings prospects of the bank. This legal obligation imposed on banking regulators stood as an explicit official acknowledgement that the profitability of commercial banks was a consideration that should guide them. The Glass-Steagall Act had an additional ramification that I argue enabled the New Deal regulatory framework to support the subsequent evolution of the welfare state in the United States context. (Russell, 2008). While welfare state Keynesianism has many requisites (such as activist monetary and fiscal policy), this analysis is focused on the proposition that the viability of Keynesian-style aggregate demand stimulus is supported by a particular relationship between productive and financial capital. The pro-investment posture of welfare state Keynesianism is assisted to the extent that investment capital is forthcoming from the financial sector at low cost to promote economic growth. In addition to the other factors that shape the costs of accessing investment capital, the relative bargaining power of productive and financial capitalist firms will influence the negotiation over the costs of accessing investment capital. The bargaining power of productive capitalist firms is enhanced to the extent that there is vigorous competition among suppliers of investment capital. Firms engaged in both investment and commercial banking (in addition to other functions) may deter this competition. Two arms of the same financial capitalist firm are not likely to undercut each other to the advantage of the productive capitalist firm. Moreover, there may be other considerations (such as a previous relationship between the productive and financial capitalist firm that mitigates information problems) that make it difficult for a productive capitalist firm to leave a financial capitalist firm with which it has already established a reputation. By separating investment banks, commercial banks and other types of financial capitalist firms, Glass-Steagall enhanced competition among providers of investment capital. Glass-Steagall set the stage for a domestic financial framework that prevailed throughout the era of Keynesian welfare state capitalism. American finance was characterized by financial compartmentalization, in which commercial banks, investment banks, savings and loans, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies etc. were placed in separate regulatory categories and prevented from crossing these regulatory boundaries. All financial capitalist firms could compete in the provision of investment capital, yet each regulatory category was protected from cross-category competition in the access of funds (for example, only commercial banks only could offer insured deposits). This framework stimulated competition among the providers of investment capital, thereby enhancing the bargaining power of firms seeking investment capital and exerting downward pressure on its price, while preserving the profitabilty of financial capitalist firms insofar as they had protected access to acquiring funds in the manner particular to their regulatory category. The Dnouement Of The New Deal Regulatory Framework This New Deal domestic financial regulatory framework presided over a period of relative financial stability combined with the low real interest rates that characterized the golden age of Keynesian welfare state capitalism in the United States. But while in some respects this arrangement did an admirable job of both stabilizing the commercial banking system and supporting a vigorous investment climate, it nonetheless set in motion tensions that ultimately undermined this regulatory framework. The functional segregation of financial intermediaries necessarily bestows an uneven assortment of both prerogatives and disadvantages to financial firms of different regulatory categories. This creates incentives to subvert these categories as firms of a given category seek to avoid the restrictions of their category while attaining the advantages enjoyed by firms in other regulatory categories. At the same time, firms in each category seek to maximize the advantages they enjoy under this framework while preventing any extension of their distinctive privileges to firms of other categories. These tensions may be latent under some circumstances, but the potential for internecine struggle inheres in a regulatory framework that necessarily creates a patchwork of strictures and perquisites. Amidst a particular historical confluence of factors, financial capitalist firms were compelled to abide by the restrictions on their activities implied by financial compartmentalization. However, as these contextual circumstances evolved, new and profitable opportunities to subvert regulatory categories proved irresistible to financial capitalist firms. Ultimately, the New Deal regulatory framework was undermined as conditions during the dnouement of the welfare state (such as the acceleration of inflation) set the stage for financial innovations designed to manipulate the mosaic of competitive advantages or disadvantages created by financial compartmentalization. Indeed, Jane DAristas research on domestic finance illuminates many of the strategies employed as banks and non-banks struggled to subvert the Glass-Steagall regulatory categories. Non-banks sought to intrude on traditionally banking activity via a variety of financial innovations that siphoned savings out of the commercial banking system and used these funds to out-competed commercial banks as provides of funds. Even non-financial corporations such as automobile manufacturers were able to access funds and make loans (initially for the purchase of the parent companys product) by intermediating funds outside of traditional banking channels in a development that DArista and Schlesinger have called the parallel banking system (1997). Banks responded to this competitive pressure by pursuing financial innovations intended to enhance their profitability in both their tradition activities and new lines of business. And in mounting this competitive strategy, banks attacked prudential regulation that disadvantaged them vis--vis non-bank competitors (for example, banks succeeded in having required reserves reduced), which ultimately had repercussion for commercial bank stability. Moreover, banks were embolden to take a variety of risks given the moral hazard that animates their special relationship to the state, and this migration into riskier activities also had implications for financial stability. As the stock market bubble in the 1990 gained momentum, it was again intolerable to banks that they were excluded from the profitable opportunities open to other financial capitalist firms, and in 1999 they succeeded in removing the Glass-Steagall impediments to their full-scale entry into commercial banking. Conclusion This reconsideration of New Deal financial reforms is not offered as endorsement of any project to reinstitute financial reforms of the past. Indeed, todays context has been so dramatically transformed from that of the US during the Great Depression and post-war period that it is challenging to redesign these reforms to adapt to contemporary circumstances. However, this analysis does offer points of both hope and caution for future projects of financial reform. The relative success and longevity of the New Deal financial reforms belie the presumption that it is not possible to dramatically reshape the financial sector as part of an agenda of progressive economic reform. The ambitious scope of New Deal financial reforms including dismantling financial empires such as J.P. Morgans that had epitomized the power of finance in America- was possible given the particular confluence of factors in the 1930s. These factors include the widespread suspicion that the dubious practices of financiers bore large responsibility for the financial and economic crisis. This offers some historical precedent to suggest that it may again be possible to seize on public concern over the financial system to support progressive change. However, even if the contextual circumstances might allow other such ambitious re-regulations of finance, the New Deal experience reveals some concerns. So long as regulatory reforms prohibit certain activities, there will be pressure to subvert these reforms if circumstances emerge that render these prohibited activities profitable. (Indeed, much of financial innovation is inspired by the attempt to circumvent regulatory restrictions.) This presents an interesting quandary: to avoid the sabotage of regulatory restrictions, the financial regulatory framework must concern itself with supporting the profitability of those activities which the regulatory framework seeks to promote. This quandary highlights a challenge that resonates for our present-day context. An agenda for economic change predicated on financial reforms often seeks to constrain the activities of financial capitalist firms. But so long as profitable opportunities exist that are prohibited, these reforms will be subjected to intense pressure as financial capitalists seek ways to subvert the intended constraints. Thus architects of financial reform must design their reforms in anticipation of finances response to these regulatory interventions. Those designing financial reforms may have little sympathy with the plight of financiers particularly in the aftermath of any financial crisis judged to have been provoked by the activities of financial capitalist firms. But in seeking to compel financial capitalist firms to acquiesce to regulatory constraints, the profitabilty of financial capital must be considered. This presents some intriguing implications. Some advocates of financial reforms prefer seemingly modest, incremental measures which may be intended to set the stage for further progressive economic intervention. But sometimes these seemingly incremental measures are more problematic that they might first appear. Even modest measures risk backlash if these measures threaten financial capitalist profitability. Perhaps measures can be designed that are sufficiently attractive to financial capital to secure its complicity, but advocates of progressive economic change may be loathe to ensure that their actions support the profitabilty of financial capital and thereby secure the acquiesce of financial capital to the reform agenda. Or perhaps public condemnation of financial capital will be so influential that it is politically possible to impose financial reforms which are disadvantageous to financial capital, but the sustainability of these reforms will be dependent on the longevity of these political conditions. Alternatively, we might to bring into question the arrangements by which the allocation of investment funds is executed for profit by capitalist firms. This is decidedly out of the realm of a modest economic reform that can portray itself as an incremental measure (and thus it will provoke the immediate objections on the part of financial capital). 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HYPERLINK "http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=14473" http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/welfare state/index.php?pid=14473 (accessed March10, 2007) Russell, Ellen. 2008. New Deal Banking Reforms And Keynesian Welfare State Capitalism. New York, Routledge Press. Vietor, Richard. 1987. Regulation-Defined Financial Markets: Fragmentation and Integration in Financial Services. in Wall Street and Regulation, ed. Samuel Hayes, 7-62. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. White, Eugene. 1982. The Political Economy of Banking Regulation, 1864-1933. The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 42, No. 1, The Tasks of Economic History, March 33-40. Willis, Parker, and John Chapman (eds.). 1934. Parker Willis and John Chapman, 3-118. New York: Columbia University Press. Wolfson, Martin. 1994. Financial Crisis: Understanding the Postwar US Experience, 2nd ed. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe.  Other prominent New Deal financial reforms include the Securities Act of 1933, the Home Loan Owners Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Public Utility Holding Act of 1935, the Federal Credit Union Act of 1934, the Banking Act of 1935, the Maloney Act of 1938, and the Investment Company Act of 1940, as well as several amendments to tax lawelfare state.  Subsections 16, 20, 21 and 32 of the Banking Act of 1933 are widely referred to as the Glass-Steagall Act.  Maximum interest rates were set on savings accounts, and the previously common practice of paying interest on checking accounts was forbidden.     PAGE  PAGE 1  Mundell claimed that international capital mobility, independent domestic monetary policy and stable exchange rates could not occur simultaneously (1962).  Insofar as [the Bretton Woods] institutional structure reflected Keynesian theoretical concerns of the time, Bretton Woods may be interpreted as a set of rules under which national authorities might, if they wished, pursue full employment policies, free of some of the anxieties that accompany open capital markets (Eatwell and Taylor 2000, 35).  Note that the return on assets must be multiplied by the so-called equity multiplier (a leverage factor) to derive the return on equity, a measure which is frequently used to evaluate profitability. Hence return on assets is typically a much lower number than the return on equity (see Sinkey, 2002, 131).  Epstein and Ferguson state that rates on short-term Treasury notes dropped from 3.4 percent in 1929 to 0.34 percent in 1932 (1984, 970). They claim that as interest rates fell, commercial banks were unable to realize capital gains from these government securities because of the shortness of the banks portfolios (ibid.).  Epstein and Ferguson conclude the capitalist organization of finance implies that interest rates may fail to drop low enough to revive an economy because bank earnings might not permit it in an acute Depression. Moreover, contemporary students of money and banking have not reconciled a fundamental problem of the current system of bank regulation: that the Federal Reserve system is charged with performing two often incompatible tasks -- that of advancing the interests of a specific industry while simultaneously overseeing the protection of other business and the public at a large (1984, 982-3).  Free banking was a reaction against the bank chartering process of the late 1700s and early 1800s. At that time a special legislative act was required to permit entry into commercial banking. This element of discretion afforded officials the opportunity to demand financial or political favors in return for permission to open a bank.  In the assessment of many who had recently emerged from the calamity of bank failures in the 1930s, free banking was associated with the promotion of all sorts of unsound and fraudulent banking practices. For example, Hammond describes egregious banking conduct during the free banking era such as kegs of nails with coin lying on top [that] were moved overnight from bank to bank to show up as cash reserves just ahead of the bank examiners (1941, 9).  For example, in March 1900, the Comptroller of the Currency responded to pressure from nationally-chartered commercial banks to reduce capital requirements from $50,000 to $25,000 for commercial banks in smaller communities (so that they could compete with state-chartered commercial banks in those communities). In turn, many states lowered capital requirements below $25,000. In the six months following the Comptroller of the Currencys decision, 509 new national commercial banks were approved, which represents a 14 percent increase in the number of nationally chartered commercial banks (Fischer, 1968, 192, Wheelock, 1992, 6, and authors calculation).  Between the turn of the century and 1920, the number of incorporated banks grew from 8,320 to 28,695  OConnor was Comptroller of the Currency between 1933 and 1938, a member of the Federal Reserve Board between 1933 and 1935, and the first vice-chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.  For example, a report of a survey of banking conditions in Indiana claimed that these highly competitive conditions eroded profits: Competition for deposits drove interest rates up to fantastic figures and resulted in all types of free services being offered. Competition for loans was so great that conservative credit principles were abandoned in an effort to secure business. () Exhaustive studies that have been made on this subject all agree that the over-banked condition of the state was, in a considerable measure, responsible, both directly and indirectly, for the large number of failures which occurred among banks in Indiana in the decade of the 20s and in the early 30s (OConnor, 1938, 85).  Curries category of commercial loans is actually all other loans, which he regards as commonly equated with commercial loans. He reports that commercial loans in the strict sense (loans eligible for rediscount) declined relative to other assets of national banks from 21.1 percent in 1923 to 13.9 percent in 1929 (Currie, 1931, 698). Peach (1941) provides a similar account.  Perkins (1971) provides a concise overview of the evolution of trust companies and their involvement in both securities markets and depository banking.  As Melvin Traylor of First National Bank of Chicago testified: In the purely banking business, where you accept deposits and make loans, the pickings, in the language of the street, got short and that led to the development of the trust business and security business () (in Peach, 1941, 25, fn) .  Kaufman and Mote (1992) claim, contra many authorities in the field, that the Comptroller of the Currency issued no formal ruling in 1902 specifically prohibiting nationally-chartered commercial banks from dealing in securities. They claim that these banks could only engage in investment banking activities via the incidental powers provision of the National Bank Act, while state chartered commercial banks often had explicit authorization to engage in investment banking. Thus the more permissive regulatory climate enjoyed by state chartered commercial banks enhanced their ability to engage in investment banking activities, and the Mcfadden Act was demanded to equalize the status of national and state commercial banks in this respect.  Securities may serve as collateral for loans in commercial banks that have no connections with investment banks. However, the concern is that this activity will be more prevalent in a diversified financial capitalist firm given the conflicts of interest that may influence the banks lending decisions.  For example, National City Company rescued the parent bank from the consequences of its disastrous Cuban Sugar loans by selling stocks in the failing sugar company to investors who were not apprised of the dubious quality of these stocks. The proceeds of this public offering allowed National City Bank to avoid a large loan loss (Pecora 1939, 122), but left stock-holders with next to nothing. Its questionable securities underwriting included bonds issued by borrowers that were earlier described by bank officials as lax, negligent, and entirely uninformed about the responsibilities of a long-term borrower (Carosso, 1970, 330). National City was also suspected of manipulating copper prices to protect itself from losses on the large amount of Anaconda Copper Company stocks it held (Kotz, 1978, 51).  Willis and Chapman (1934, 556) indicate that in 1926 (prior to the passage of the McFadden Act), 30.1 percent of the loans of national banks were secured by stocks and bonds. By 1930, 37.8 percent of the loans of national banks were secured by stocks and bonds.  See Corrigan (2000).  In the late 1990s, it was claimed that the conduct of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve was timed to support stock market values in a manner that came to be called the Greenspan Put (Parenteau, 2006). A put is an option to sell an asset in the future (a form of derivatives contract) that provides insurance to compensate the holder against a drop in its price.  The preamble indicates that it is [a]n act to provide for the safer and more effective use of the assets of banks, to regulate interbank control, to prevent the undue diversion of funds into speculative operations (in Kross, 1969, 2758).  The Banking Act also required that loan portfolios be scrutinized in order to prevent the allocation of bank credit for speculative purposes. Section 3(a) required that [e]ach Federal Reserve Board shall keep itself informed of the general character and amount of the loans and investments of its member banks with a view to ascertaining whether undue use is being made of bank credit for the speculative carrying of or trading in securities, real estate, or commodities, or for any other purpose inconsistent with the maintenance of sound credit conditions. The Act goes on to say that a bank judged to be making undue use of bank credit in the judgment of the Federal Reserve Board could be suspended from the use of the credit facilities of the Federal Reserve System.  Section 16 prohibited commercial banks from purchasing equities and underwriting securities on their own behalf (with the exception of US Treasuries and general obligations of states and political subdivisions), section 21 prohibited investment banks from accepting deposits, and section 32 prohibited interlocking directorates between commercial and investment banks.  Percy Johnson, of the Chemical Bank and Trust Company of New York, testified at the Banking and Currency hearings of the U.S. Senate that I do not think [a guarantee should be made to bank depositors], unless we are going to guarantee all elements of society against misfortunes and evils of all kinds. Of course, if we are going to have socialistic government, then we ought to guarantee everybody against all manner of things (in Burns, 1974, 67).  Officials were directed in the Act to consider the financial history and condition of the bank, the adequacy of its capital structure, its future earnings prospects, the general character of its management, the convenience and needs of the community to be served, and whether or not its corporate powers are consistent with the purposes of this section (in Hammond, 1941, 60-1).  Yet our distress comes from no failure of substance. We are stricken by no plague of locusts. . Primarily this [distress] is because rulers of the exchange of mankind's goods have failed through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and have abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men. Inaugural Address of Franklin D. 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