ࡱ> 5@ Vbjbj22 "XXNTTTT.U.VvYYYYY6\\Hacccccc$ЎR"x}YY}}YY}YYa}aY"V >w@=TÅl0k(ɉ, ] g,o 8u ] ] ]*,(,The Economists E-Commerce Survey The dotcoms come of age E-commerce takes off May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition Internet commerce is empowering consumers and entrepreneurs alike  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/2004LD1.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/background/displayBackground.cfm?story_id=2668033" \t "background" Get article background BACK in 1999, at the height of the internet frenzy, Forrester, a research company, forecast that online retail sales in America could reach $100 billion by 2002. When the bubble burst a year later, lots of crazy predictions went the same way as many dotcom firms. But if online sales of cars, food and travel are added to the official figures, then Forrester's forecast, which once looked so wild, has turned out to be only about a year late. The growth continues. The 200m Americans who now have web access are likely to spend more than $120 billion online this year. And that is only part of the story. E-commerce has not only grown into a huge thing in its own right, it has done so in a way that will change every kind of business, offline as well as online, as our  HYPERLINK "http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2646107" survey explains. Online, offlinewhat's the difference? In America, women now outnumber men online; the average age of all web surfers is increasing; their level of education is decreasing; and their average spending is growing. In short, online consumers are rapidly becoming just like offline consumers. So it should come as no surprise that, just as it was on the high street, clothing was the biggest category of goods sold online in America last Christmas. Similar trends are already evident in Europe and will no doubt spread to Asia. But e-commerce involves a lot more than retail sales and services such as travel, in which more than half of all bookings are expected to move online within a few years. For instance, billions of dollars of used goods are now sold on internet auction sites, notably on the hugely successful eBay. Second-hand cars are now eBay's biggest category, sales that many once thought would be impossible to conduct on the internet. Some of the big American dotcoms are now finding that growth is accelerating even faster overseas: eBay's Chinese service, for instance, is already the biggest e-commerce site in that country. Then there are the billions spent on everything from pornography to financial servicesand this does not include business-to-business (B2B) services, already worth more than $1 trillion a year according to some estimates. Wal-Mart, for one, now conducts all its business with suppliers over a proprietary B2B network. Consumers clearly love to shop on the internet. So they should: leading websites, after early teething problems, now provide a superb service. Certain sites, such as Amazon, have won some of the highest customer-satisfaction scores ever seen in the retail industry. In fact, websites have had little choice but to raise service levels, often far above those of offline retailers. Competition on the web is fierce. Price transparency is the rule. With shopping-comparison services, it is possible to check the price offered by hundreds of merchants with a couple of mouse clicks. Consumers also have access to an unprecedented amount of product information, not just from manufacturers' websites but also from online reviews written by previous customers. The growth of internet shopping is producing a profound change in consumer behaviour. People are not just becoming more confident about buying goods and services online, they are also increasingly adept at using the internet to decide where and how to spend their money offline. As yet, very few new cars are sold online. But in America three out of four customers walking into a car showroom have already researched their choice online, down to what colour and accessories they want. And most will know exactly what they need to pay. Some will even have armed themselves with competing quotes from different dealers, often by using specialist websites. Much the same thing is happening with other goods and services, from domestic appliances to holidays. No company can any longer afford to ignore the internet, even if it does not itself sell much or anything at all online. Consumers are behaving as if they see no great distinction between online and offline shopping. They do both. For most consumers, the internet is just another sales channel, and a convenient tool for browsing and research, and they make their purchase in whatever way happens to suit them best. To reach these customers, companies have had to look at new and different advertising and marketing strategies. This is why firms are finding that paying for sponsored links to appear on search sites like Google and Yahoo! has become one of the most effective marketing tools, especially for categories of consumers who spend as much time on the internet as they do watching television, such as teenagers. Safety at speed The spread of fast, broadband internet connections has been a key factor in fuelling the growth of e-commerce. It has had an even more profound effect on the associated growth of new internet businesses. Already in America and Europe hundreds of thousands of people have used e-commerce services to build new businesses, many of them tiny but lucrative. The internet has shrunk the cost of going into business. For the price of a personal computer, a fast connection and a good website, anyone with an entrepreneurial flair now has the potential to reach customers worldwide. In many rural communities, even in America and Europe, the arrival of broadband has given a big boost to the creation of new jobs. Because of the now-proven benefits of broadband internet accessthe empowerment of both consumers and entrepreneurs (sometimes the same people)governments ought to remove obstacles to the spread of broadband wherever they find them. The ease of getting on the internet has attracted plenty of rogues. Gartner, another research company, estimates that the use of phishing, in which fraudulent emails are used to trick people into parting with credit-card and other personal details, cost American banks and credit-card companies $1.2 billion last year. The software firms, website designers and service providers that have helped build the internet urgently need to make it a safer place to do business. If they can manage to do this, and the spread of broadband can be sustained, the potential of e-commerce is bound to be even greater than in the past few years. A golden opportunity beckons. A perfect market May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/D2004SU1.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET  E-commerce is coming of age, says Paul Markillie, but not in the way predicted in the bubble years WHEN the technology bubble burst in 2000, the crazy valuations for online companies vanished with it, and many businesses folded. The survivors plugged on as best they could, encouraged by the growing number of internet users. Now valuations are rising again and some of the dotcoms are making real profits, but the business world has become much more cautious about the internet's potential. The funny thing is that the wild predictions made at the height of the boomnamely, that vast chunks of the world economy would move into cyberspaceare, in one way or another, coming true. The raw numbers tell only part of the story. According to America's Department of Commerce, online retail sales in the world's biggest market last year rose by 26%, to $55 billion. That sounds a lot of money, but it amounts to only 1.6% of total retail sales. The vast majority of people still buy most things in the good old bricks-and-mortar world. But the commerce department's figures deal with only part of the retail industry. For instance, they exclude online travel services, one of the most successful and fastest-growing sectors of e-commerce. InterActiveCorp (IAC), the owner of  HYPERLINK "http://www.expedia.com/daily/home/default.asp" \t "_blank" expedia.com and  HYPERLINK "http://www.hotels.com/" \t "_blank" hotels.com, alone sold $10 billion-worth of travel last yearand it has plenty of competition, not least from airlines, hotels and car-rental companies, all of which increasingly sell online. Nor do the figures take in things like financial services, ticket-sales agencies, pornography (a $2 billion business in America last year, according to Adult Video News, a trade magazine), online dating and a host of other activities, from tracing ancestors to gambling (worth perhaps $6 billion worldwide). They also leave out purchases in grey markets, such as the online pharmacies that are thought to be responsible for a good proportion of the $700m that Americans spent last year on buying cut-price prescription drugs from across the border in Canada. Tip of the iceberg And there is more. The commerce department's figures include the fees earned by internet auction sites, but not the value of goods that are sold: an astonishing $24 billion-worth of trade was done last year on eBay, the biggest online auctioneer. Nor, by definition, do they include the billions of dollars-worth of goods bought and sold by businesses connecting to each other over the internet. Some of these B2B services are proprietary; for example, Wal-Mart tells its suppliers that they must use its own system if they want to be part of its annual turnover of $250 billion. So e-commerce is already very big, and it is going to get much bigger. But the actual value of transactions currently concluded online is dwarfed by the extraordinary influence the internet is exerting over purchases carried out in the offline world. That influence is becoming an integral part of e-commerce. To start with, the internet is profoundly changing consumer behaviour. One in five customers walking into a Sears department store in America to buy an electrical appliance will have researched their purchase onlineand most will know down to a dime what they intend to pay. More surprisingly, three out of four Americans start shopping for new cars online, even though most end up buying them from traditional dealers. The difference is that these customers come to the showroom armed with information about the car and the best available deals. Sometimes they even have computer print-outs identifying the particular vehicle from the dealer's stock that they want to buy.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/CSU724.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Half of the 60m consumers in Europe who have an internet connection bought products offline after having investigated prices and details online, according to a study by Forrester, a research consultancy (see chart 1). Different countries have different habits. In Italy and Spain, for instance, people are twice as likely to buy offline as online after researching on the internet. But in Britain and Germany, the two most developed internet markets, the numbers are evenly split. Forrester says that people begin to shop online for simple, predictable products, such as DVDs, and then graduate to more complex items. Used-car sales are now one of the biggest online growth areas in America. People seem to enjoy shopping on the internet, if high customer-satisfaction scores are any guide. Websites are doing ever more and cleverer things to serve and entertain their customers, and seem set to take a much bigger share of people's overall spending in the future. Why websites matter This has enormous implications for business. A company that neglects its website may be committing commercial suicide. A website is increasingly becoming the gateway to a company's brand, products and serviceseven if the firm does not sell online. A useless website suggests a useless company, and a rival is only a mouse-click away. But even the coolest website will be lost in cyberspace if people cannot find it, so companies have to ensure that they appear high up in internet search results. For many users, a search site is now their point of entry to the internet. The best-known search engine has already entered the lexicon: people say they have Googled a company, a product or their plumber. The search business has also developed one of the most effective forms of advertising on the internet. And it is already the best way to reach some consumers: teenagers and young men spend more time online than watching television. All this means that search is turning into the internet's next big battleground as  HYPERLINK "http://www.google.com/" \t "_blank" Google defends itself against challenges from Yahoo! and Microsoft. The other way to get noticed online is to offer goods and services through one of the big sites that already get a lot of traffic.  HYPERLINK "http://www.ebay.com/" \t "_blank" Ebay,  HYPERLINK "http://www.yahoo.com/" \t "_blank" Yahoo! and  HYPERLINK "http://www.amazon.com" \t "_blank" Amazon are becoming huge trading platforms for other companies. But to take part, a company's products have to stand up to intense price competition. People check online prices, compare them with those in their local high street and may well take a peek at what customers in other countries are paying. Even if websites are prevented from shipping their goods abroad, there are plenty of web-based entrepreneurs ready to oblige. What is going on here is arbitrage between different sales channels, says Mohanbir Sawhney, professor of technology at the Kellogg School of Management in Chicago. For instance, someone might use the internet to research digital cameras, but visit a photographic shop for a hands-on demonstration. I'll think about it, they will tell the sales assistant. Back home, they will use a search engine to find the lowest price and buy online. In this way, consumers are deconstructing the purchasing process, says Professor Sawhney. They are unbundling product information from the transaction itself. All about me It is not only price transparency that makes internet consumers so powerful; it is also the way the net makes it easy for them to be fickle. If they do not like a website, they swiftly move on. The web is the most selfish environment in the world, says Daniel Rosensweig, chief operating officer of Yahoo! People want to use the internet whenever they want, how they want and for whatever they want. Yahoo! is not alone in defining its strategy as working out what its customers (260m unique users every month) are looking for, and then trying to give it to them. The first thing they want is to become better informed about products and prices. We operate our business on that belief, says Jeff Bezos, Amazon's chief executive. Amazon became famous for books, but long ago branched out into selling lots of other things too; among its latest ventures are health products, jewellery and gourmet food. Apart from cheap and bulky items such as garden rakes, Mr Bezos thinks he can sell most things. And so do the millions of people who use eBay. And yet nobody thinks real shops are finished, especially those operating in niche markets. Many bricks-and-mortar bookshops still make a good living, as do flea markets. But many record shops and travel agents could be in for a tougher time. Erik Blachford, the head of IAC's travel side and boss of Expedia, the biggest internet travel agent, thinks online travel bookings in America could quickly move from 20% of the market to more than half. Mr Bezos reckons online retailers might capture 10-15% of retail sales over the next decade. That would represent a massive shift in spending. How will traditional shops respond? Michael Dell, the founder of Dell, which leads the personal-computer market by selling direct to the customer, has long thought many shops will turn into showrooms. There are already signs of change on the high street. The latest Apple and Sony stores are designed to display products, in the full expectation that many people will buy online. To some extent, the online and offline worlds may merge. Multi-channel selling could involve a combination of traditional shops, a printed catalogue, a home-shopping channel on TV, a phone-in order service and an e-commerce-enabled website. But often it is likely to be the website where customers will be encouraged to place their orders. One of the biggest commercial advantages of the internet is a lowering of transaction costs, which usually translates directly into lower prices for the consumer. So, if the lowest prices can be found on the internet and people like the service they get, why would they buy anywhere else? One reason may be convenience; another, concern about fraud, which poses the biggest threat to online trade. But as long as the internet continues to deliver price and product information quickly, cheaply and securely, e-commerce will continue to grow. Increasingly, companies will have to assume that customers will know exactly where to look for the best buy. This market has the potential to become as perfect as it gets. Santa's helpers May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition Retailers are the top performers online FOR retailers, the two months before Christmas are the busiest time of the year. The same is true for e-tailers, who enjoyed an exceptionally good holiday season last year. Lots of records were broken:  HYPERLINK "http://www.amazon.com" \t "_blank" Amazon, for example, took more than 2m orders worldwide in a single day. What is intriguing, however, is not so much that the online traders increased their share of spending (the dotcom community still takes rapid growth in its stride) but that consumers are changing their behaviour.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/CSU698.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  In November and December 2003, Americans spent $18.5 billion online (excluding travel), 35% more than they did in the same two months in 2002, according to a joint survey carried out by Goldman Sachs, Harris Interactive and Nielsen//NetRatings. The popular perception is that online retail sales rely heavily on gadgets, mostly bought by young men. Not so. Over the holiday period, the most popular category was clothing, up by 40% to $3.7 billion, followed by toys, video games and consumer electronics, which grew little in value because of falling prices (see chart 2). The overall growth, says the report, was fuelled by the rising number of high-speed broadband links, which now connect 50m American homes to the web. This makes online shopping faster and more convenient. It was a similar story in those countries in Europe and Asia where internet connections are becoming quicker. Spending patterns on the internet are also getting closer to those on the high street. For instance, in Britain last year women spent more online than men: 495 ($809) against 470 per person. The growth in spending by female online shoppers was 71%, six times faster than that for men, according to Verdict, a retail consultancy. This helped to boost Britain's total online market by 36% to almost 5 billion last year, which meant it grew nearly ten times faster than total retail spending. Older people, too, are using the internet more to shop. The over-55s have flooded online over the past year, and they are spending more than any other age group, at 527 per head, says Verdict. Groceries, electrical goods and home-improvement products are particularly popular with the older set. But for all age groups, convenience seems to have overtaken price as the main reason for shopping online. Much of the online shopping is heavily concentrated on a few sites. In January 2004, 83.5m Americans, or just over half of the country's internet users, visited either  HYPERLINK "http://www.ebay.com" \t "_blank" eBay or Amazon, making these sites among the most frequently visited retail outlets in the country, both online and offline, according to comScore Networks, a technology consultancy. Search engines have also generated sales on a huge scale. Sites such as  HYPERLINK "http://www.google.com/" \t "_blank" Google,  HYPERLINK "http://www.yahoo.com/" \t "_blank" Yahoo!,  HYPERLINK "http://www.msn.com/" \t "_blank" MSN and  HYPERLINK "http://www.aol.com" \t "_blank" AOL are used increasingly to find and buy products. Search sites now compare prices from rival retailers for many products. Sell it cheap How does Seattle-based Amazon, the leading online retailer, cope with such price transparency? The first part of the answer is simple, says Mr Bezos: The approach we take is actually to have low prices. The second is to accept that there is transparency. So if one of the big retailers who now also sell through Amazon, such as Circuit City or J&R, manages to clinch a better deal with one of their suppliers and offer a lower price, Amazon has to reduce its own price, lose sales or keep its fingers crossed that it will win the order for reasons other than price. Pricing on the internet may well become totally transparent, says Kellogg's Mohanbir Sawhney; but the notion of value remains opaque, and this is where online merchants can competeeven with different prices. The value proposition offered by a merchant can mean different things. People might simply like one trader better than another and so be prepared to pay a little more; they might be placing multiple orders and can save money by taking advantage of a free-shipping deal; the site could have recommended something to them based on their previous buying or browsing habits; or they stumbled on something they did not know about and found irresistible. Amazon's business model is built on five fundamentals which it thinks will not change: low prices; a big selection; availability; convenience; and good information about products. We are not going to wake up ten years from now and find people saying: This is all well and good, but I wish the prices were a little higher', says Mr Bezos. In its efforts to become Earth's most customer-centric company, Amazon is using the falling price of computer power to provide shoppers with new experiences. One example is its Search Inside the Book feature, introduced last autumn, which allows customers to search the entire text of more than 120,000 books. The results can be displayed as a preview of a page of the book. It is the online equivalent of being able to browse pages, as people do in real bookshops. Even with cheaper computing, this is an expensive technological bet, but Amazon says it is already encouraging people to buy more books. In 2003, Amazon was profitable for its first full year, with a net income of $35m, helped by a currency gain. Net sales were up 34% to $5.3 billion. Amazon does not publish a detailed breakdown of its sales figures, but its media sales (mostly books, music and DVDs) accounted for $4 billion, and electronics and general merchandise most of the remainder. Mr Bezos expects that in time consumer electronics will overtake media as the company's biggest category. Another thing that helps profits is rigorous cost-cutting. To do this, Amazon employs the Toyota principlereducing defects and problems in its order process as early as possible. One of Amazon's main quality measurements is contacts per unit ordered. Every time an employee has to intervene in the automatic process, perhaps to redirect something delivered to the wrong address, costs go up. By keeping this measurement as low as possible, Amazon not only reduces its costs but also boosts its customer-satisfaction ratings. Feel the quality E-tailers already score very well with consumers, according to the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI). This is a closely watched measure produced by the University of Michigan in association with other groups. The report for the holiday period in the last quarter of 2003 showed an aggregate score for e-commerce of 80.8 (out of 100 possible points), a 4% rise on a year earlier. The national average of consumer satisfaction with all industries is 75. E-tailers earn the highest marks with an average of 84. Amazon.com leads the pack with 88, which the report says is about as close to matching the consumer ideal as any company has come in the ten-year history of the ACSI. A high customer-satisfaction score, Ken Seiff thinks, is one reason why his company survived the dotcom crash when many other online clothing firms perished. Mr Seiff is the head of  HYPERLINK "http://www.bluefly.com/" \t "_blank" Bluefly, which sells discounted designer clothing. Based in the heart of New York's garment district, he set up the company in 1998 to offer a way of buying cut-price branded clothing that did not involve rummaging through racks of jumble, as in traditional outlet stores. Backed by George Soros, an international financier, Bluefly is now listed on the Nasdaq exchange, and in February posted its first-ever quarterly profit.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/CSU926.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Bluefly's site makes strong use of design themes and enables customers to zoom in to examine clothes and accessories. It also provides some of the services associated with classy boutiques, such as exclusive offers and previews. The idea, says Mr Seiff, is to offer a high-quality shopping experience, which in turn helps his business to secure a better selection of designer goods. And just as brand owners like to separate their end-of-line sales from their latest collections, Bluefly last autumn cleared out its old stock through a different sales medium: it opened a temporary boutique in a real building in New York. At around 4%, clothing sales online still represent a small proportion of the total, but the share is growing. Online will never be the largest sales channel, says Mr Seiff. But, he adds, it will be one of the best-performing, and will be very important in some areas. For instance, teenage consumers are big buyers of clothing online, and their tastes in turn influence mainstream fashion. The top sites for buying clothes online in America last Christmas were those run by  HYPERLINK "http://www.ebay.com/" \t "_blank" eBay, Lands' End and J.C. Penney. That might seem odd. After all, eBay is seen mainly as an auction site where people sell off their old stuff; Lands' End is a catalogue company (bought by Sears, Roebuck in 2002 for $1.9 billion); and J.C. Penney, like Sears, is an old-fashioned department-store chain. Back to the shop Yet although eBay may have started out as an online auctioneer, it now hosts virtual shop fronts for some 150,000 stores worldwide. Its sales of clothing and accessories run to more than $1 billion. Lands' End, for its part, has been helped by its strong brand and easy transition to internet selling. It was already a highly successful catalogue company before it went online as early as 1995. Its clothing is now also stocked in Sears's bricks-and-mortar stores. What seems to attract internet shoppers to the sites run by J.C. Penney and Sears is a combination of their known brand values and the fact that they do have shopshundreds of them. Lots of consumers clearly see useful connections between the online and offline worlds. Many of the big retailers with websites, such as Circuit City and Sears, offer the option of picking up the goods in their shops. This may seem old-fashioned, but it is surprisingly popular. That could be because people can't or don't want to wait for a delivery van to show up, or they are in a hurry, or they don't want to bother with a salesperson, or they know they can return what they buy if it goes wrong, or they just want to save on the delivery charge, especially if it is something heavy. At Sears, 40% of online sales (excluding garments) are now picked up in store. The ability of established retailers to fulfil their orders is a crucial factor. Tesco, Britain's largest supermarket chain, was able to take the lead in online groceries by devising a fairly simple system: goods ordered over the internet are picked from the shelves of the nearest supermarket and delivered to homes within set time slots. Rival online grocers, such as the late Webvan in California, which went for an elaborate and expensive central-warehouse system, found they could not make it pay. As Verdict says, it should be no surprise that many of the most successful online retailers already have a strong home-delivery operation. Sears, for one, distributed its first general catalogue for home-delivery sales in 1894. Yet for a general retailer, the transition to the internet is by no means easy, says Bill Bass, who joined Sears from Lands' End to help run its online businesses. For a start, inventory systems in hundreds of stores had to be changed so that stock positions could be checked instantly, instead of calculated at the end of the trading day, to avoid disappointing online customers who wanted to pick their purchase up in store. Lands' End also provides a good example of how technological development and increasingly clever mathematics are bringing new services to the internet. The company now offers a system for custom-made clothes, a sort of Savile Row by mouse-click. Some of the original data for this, says Mr Bass, were gained from inviting groups of customers to have their bodies scanned. Now customers simply answer some straightforward questions, and the Lands' End algorithm works out their perfect fit for them. It learns as it goes along; for example, it now allows for the fact that customers are apt to understate certain body measurements. After web retailers, the next best group at keeping their customers happy are online auction houses, with an average satisfaction score of 78 (though eBay, which dominates this business, gets an impressive 84). Online travel agents follow at 77. Travel clearly has room for improvement, says Larry Freed, the boss of ForeSee Results, which co-sponsors the customer-satisfaction index. All the sites do roughly the same thing roughly the same way, and there is no clear consumer preference among them. But the online travel industry is working hard to change that. Click to fly May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition Within a decade, most travel bookings are likely to move online  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/CSU719.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  INSIDE an office block in downtown Chicago, two large rooms next to one another look a little like NASA's mission control. People sit at computers, facing a wall of large screens with constantly changing information. This is the heart of Orbitz, one of the big online travel agencies. Jeffrey Katz, the company's chief executive, says there is a simple reason why more and more people are using the internet to make their travel arrangements: It's a better way to do it. But Orbitz, which was founded by a group of big airlines, and its rivals have to make it better still. Some in the industry think that strong competition and negligible buyer loyalty will cause a big shake-out soon. Some of the smaller companies have already been snapped up. In the past year America's Hotwire, which specialises in discount hotel accommodation, was bought by Barry Diller's IAC; Travelbag, a British long-haul travel specialist, by ebookers; and Online Travel by Britain's Lastminute. Travel makes up the biggest chunk of business-to-consumer e-commerce, accounting for about one-third of online consumer spending. Last year 35m Americans bought travel online, a 17% increase on 2002, according to the PhoCusWright Consumer Travel Trends Survey. The survey found that nearly two-thirds of those travellers were happy to buy personal travel either from online agencies or directly from the websites of travel firms, and often used both for different parts of the same trip. The vast majority of customers would consult at least one online travel agency and the website of one supplier before purchasing anything online. Many more people would investigate their travel options online but then book offline. Internet travel agents need to entice those browsing actually to book their trips with them, and to get them to buy more of their total travel needs from just one site. One way of doing this is to develop dynamic packaging. This allows customers to pick all the different elements of their trip from the site, including flights, hotels, car hire, local tours and even tickets to the theatre or sporting events. In the offline world, such packages have long been put together by tour operators in brochures displayed by travel agents. Such holidays have enjoyed huge popularity, especially with northern Europeans looking for a couple of weeks in the sun. One of the best-loved destinations used to be the Costa Brava, a stretch of coast in north-eastern Spain where package tours were pioneered in the 1950s. But for this summer, First Choice, one of Britain's main tour operators, has dropped the area from its brochure. Many holidaymakers now expect better-quality hotels, less crowded beaches and more activities than the Costa Brava can offer. The growth of low-cost airlines and a host of online travel services have made it easier and more attractive for them to book their own flights and accommodation. People like the ability to see everything a travel agent can, and put together their own holidays, says Robert Booth, who runs the British site of America's Travelocity. They also, he adds, want their bookings to be safe, their money secure and any problems promptly dealt with. If online companies can do all of these things, then people will return and spend more money. What makes a successful travel package comes back to the question of value. It could be the convenience of buying everything in one place, but it could also be the satisfaction of getting a bargain. In packaged deals, the price of the individual components is often opaque. If travellers check the rates of the airlines, hotels and car-hire firms involved, they may sometimes find that, if bought individually, the parts would cost more than the package. This is because packages involve deals between suppliers and travel agents, such as promoting one particular hotel or airline in return for a rate discounted below the lowest advertised price. The lure of dynamic packaging Tour operators have been packaging their trips this way for decades. Getting dynamic packaging to work well online for individual consumers is not so straightforward, but the rewards for companies that pull it off could be rich indeed. At present, in America some 20% of travel is bought online. But many in the industry think that travel could become the first big industry with the majority of its sales online, and that the proportion could reach 50-70% within a decade. Europe is expected to follow the same pattern, but with a delay of about three years. If these forecasts prove accurate, they will lead to huge changes in the travel business. Dinesh Dhamija, the boss of British-based ebookers, predicts that the two largest holiday travel companies in EuropeThomas Cook and TUIwill be replaced as market leaders by internet travel companies within five to seven years. Expedia's Mr Blachford is convinced that eventually just about every travel transaction will involve some element of online booking. The first part of selling travel on the internet was the simple bit, he says. Airlines, hotels and car-rental companies were all using computerised reservation systems already, operated by travel agents or telephone-sales reps. Moving these on to the web did not involve a very big step. After the global slump in travel following the terrorist attacks on September 11th 2001, travel companies were keen to get what business they could from the online agents. But as travel picked up again, some companies have become less willing to pay such agents lucrative commissions for bookings that could be made on their own websites. InterContinental Hotels, which also owns the Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza chains, has worked harder than most to try to shift bookings to its own sites, not least by guaranteeing that they will offer the best room rates on the internet. Such moves not only increase competition, but also complicate things for online agents trying to package trips. Clicking to buy a return flight from London to Athens, for instance, is straightforward enough. But a fly-drive holiday from London to Los Angeles for a family of four, with various hotels, car rental, Disneyland tickets and a return via San Francisco, may require help from a real person. Just as with Amazon's contacts-per-unit measure, the more human intervention a travel booking requires, the higher the cost. Yet the internet still offers advantages. Having used a website to plan a holiday, a customer is likely to have a fairly good idea of what he wants by the time he makes that phone call. This means an online agent's telephone staff can handle more customers than a traditional travel agent, says Mr Dhamija. They can also finalise bookings faster than a high-street agency, because they are spared the sort of customers who come in and say: We were thinking about going to somewhere like America for a holiday and wondered what was on offer. Business class, please Most of the big online travel agents are now also chasing the market for business travel. According to an industry rule of thumb, about 60% of trips are for leisure and 40% for business; but when it comes to expenditure, the ratio is reversed. Many small companies already deal directly with online agents, but for bigger companies booking business travel is a lot more complex than leisure travel, says Mr Blachford. To increase its expertise in the sector, Seattle-based Expedia has been buying companies that specialise in managing business travel. Business travel is governed by the budgets and rules set by corporate travel departments (such as who gets to fly business class, and in what circumstances), and by discounts negotiated with particular travel suppliers. In order to win a big corporate account, an online agent may have to provide an almost bespoke service, which might include an individually tailored web page for a firm's employees to log into. Business travellers often demand flexibility, so changing flights and other arrangements has to be easy. This means that online agents may still have to provide help at the end of a telephone. Nevertheless, with their lower transaction costs, online agents expect to be able to offer cheaper business travel than many offline agents. Some also provide additional services that could be useful for harassed travellers of any kind, business or leisure. For instance, Orbitz employs former air-traffic controllers in its operations centre to keep an eye on potential problems. This means travellers can be alerted to flight delays by e-mail or mobile phone before they set off for the airport. If they have the cash, of course, they can use the internet to bypass delays altogether, by logging into eBay and buying themselves an executive jet. At the drop of a hammer May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/D2004SU3.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Online auctions have been a runaway success BY SEVERAL measures, eBay is one of the world's fastest-growing businesses. Profitable right from its creation in 1995, the company, based in San Jose, California, now dominates online auctions. Yet what eBay will become in another decade is impossible to predict, not least because some of the things now being traded on it have surprised even its own management. Used cars, for one thing, were thought to be unsuitable: who would want to buy, sight unseen, a secondhand car from a stranger in an internet auction? Yet this year eBay Motors is expected to sell more than $8 billion-worth of vehicles and parts, making it the company's most valuable category of business. Not long ago it was Beanie Babies. Early entry and rapid growth gave eBay a network advantage. Networks are akin to a snowball rolling down a hill, gathering up ever more snow as it gets bigger. The more sellers eBay attracts, the more buyers turn to it, and the more buyers it gets, the more useful it becomes to sellers. No one has been able to catch eBay, not even Microsoft when it tried to enter the internet-auction business. In the past five years, eBay's net revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of around 80%, and is expected to reach $3 billion this year. Last year's net profits were $442m. And still the business is picking up speed. With more than 100m registered users worldwide, half the company's revenue will soon come from websites based outside America. Some of these are growing faster than eBay has done in America. Its Chinese site, known as EachNet, took four years to attract 2.4m users, but the number almost doubled in the last six months of 2003. EachNet is now China's biggest e-commerce site. Meg Whitman, the firm's chief executive, describes eBay as one part company, one part town-hall meeting and one part entertainment. The company's strategy is to build a global trading platform that operates at the beginning and the end of the typical bell-curve of a product's life. The bump in the middle, where market pricing works efficiently, is left to conventional retail channels. Where eBay comes into its own is at either side of the bump. For instance, when a successful new product is launched, demand for it may be so high that it becomes scarce, so it can be auctioned for more than the recommended price. Then pricing stabilises and high-street (or online) retailing takes over. But as the product ages, it starts having to be discounted to clear out the stock, presenting another auction opportunity. And once its first owner has finished with it, a used market of uncertain values emerges. The potential in buying and selling goods at either end of the bell curve is enormous, says Rajiv Dutta, eBay's chief financial officer: We are just scratching the surface. Compared with ordinary retailing, it also offers another huge advantage for eBay: the company itself does not carry any stock. It simply matches buyers with sellers, who do the packing and posting.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/CSU728.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  With locally based sites in 28 countries, either fully or partially owned, the service can be tailored to local needs. In France, for instance, eBay conducts wine sales, whereas in South Korea its service is used to sell a lot of kimchi (fermented cabbage). And the shop is open round the clockwhich is just as well, because many users like to place their bids on a Sunday. In Latin America, where home computers are still relatively rare, eBay's busiest periods are Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm. What Ms Whitman means by town-hall meeting is eBay listening, responding to and policing its community of users. For example, when eBayers started to sell used cars to one another, the company quickly had to develop extra online services to help them do so and to make sure that the vehicles on offer were as described. Otherwise a competitor might have bagged the used-car businessand possibly other bits of eBay too. Everyone can play Happy bidders and sellers are crucial to eBay's continued success, so the company is constantly trying to improve its trading experience. This means buyers and sellers (all of whom have to be registered) need to find something as close as possible to an honest, open market, or they might not come back. In its simplest form, the system works like this: Buying. Anything from a Learjet to a lollipop can be found on eBay. A buyer who wants a particular item enters the maximum amount he is prepared to pay. This remains a secret to other bidders while eBay's computers monitor the bidding. Higher offers are accepted until the end of the auction, typically after seven days. Bidders concerned about the reliability of a seller can see how he has been rated by other buyers, and read comments left by people who have done business with him before. Once a bid has been won, the two sides contact each other, the buyer pays and the seller ships the goods. The terms of the transaction, including shipping costs, are usually listed with the auction. In 2002, eBay spent $1.5 billion to buy PayPal, an online-payments company which now has 45m account holders. Selling. The details of an item to be sold are completed online and a digital photo is added if required. The seller sets his opening price and perhaps a reserve price, and the length of the auction. Bidding then commences. Whereas bidders get to see just the current highest offer and the number of previous bids, only the seller can see the value of all the individual bids submitted. If a would-be buyer is outbid, he can come back with a higher offer. The seller can check the reputation of a buyer, and if necessary reject his bid. Payment can be made by credit card, provided the seller has a PayPal account. If people were not inherently good and trustworthy, this would not work, says Simon Rothman, who runs eBay Motors. Nevertheless, eBay has to watch out for fraudsters and pranksters. Newly registered users and people who register a new trading name are identified by eBay's computers as lacking a trading history and may be asked to get in touch by e-mail to verify their identity before placing bids. Auctions are also monitored to weed out potential troublemakers and criminals. Even so, buyers and sellers can end up in dispute. But the company has mechanisms for resolving these, and for money-back guarantees to be offered. EBay also operates virtual stores for some of its users. It now has hundreds of thousands of people around the world making a full-time living from buying and selling things on its site or earning a second income. One example is Steve Weinberg from El Dorado Hills, California. He sells new and refurbished consumer electronics, such as digital cameras, music players and DVD recorders. He started his business in 1999 as a hobby, but now works on it full-time. His sales of over $25,000 a month qualify him for additional benefits as an eBay power seller. Gail Wall, a single mother from Billingham in Britain, has gone part-time in her main job to give her more time to nurture her ceramics businesses on eBay. Her goods are mostly bought from car-boot sales. She thinks she will be able to afford to give up the main job later this year. There are also businesses that have been created specifically to offer goods and services to people trading on eBay. One of them is AuctionDrop, which provides drop-off points in the San Francisco Bay area for things to be auctioned online. The company takes a cut of the proceeds. Late last year, Randy Adams, AuctionDrop's founder, raised $6.6m in venture-capital funding to expand his business. EBay has performed a rare feat by both achieving huge commercial success and providing a lot of entertainment for its customers. But when it comes to offering fun on the web, it has plenty of competitors. A market too far May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition Why some business-to-business exchanges have been slow to take off BEFORE the dotcom bubble popped, the really big money in e-commerce was expected to be in business-to-business (B2B) websites, especially in online auctions. By various estimates, 1,000-1,500 companies had been set up and were waiting to crack this big new market. The idea was that they would provide the infrastructure other businesses would use to trade among themselves and procure goods and services. It did not work out like that. For one thing, companies were not particularly willing to sift through tenders from lots of suppliers they had never dealt with before. Most of them prefer to build stable longer-term relations with a limited number of suppliers. And instead of paying middlemen to facilitate B2B trade, many firms simply started dealing directly with one another electronically, replacing letters and faxes with e-mails and other digital documentation. Some companies also turned to more general online exchanges, including eBay. But not all the early B2B exchanges floundered. In some large industries, such as metals, chemicals and cars, they continue in various forms. One is the WorldWide Retail Exchange, which was founded in 2000 by a group of retailers including J.C. Penney, Gap, Auchan, Marks & Spencer and Tesco. It now has more than 60 members. Fabiano Aguilar, a Paris-based director of the exchange, says that its members have, so far, saved more than $1 billion. He acknowledges that eBay is helping popularise the concept of bidding for goods and services. There's a perfect price out there and as a buyer, I want to get it, he adds. His exchange, which is run as an independent company, offers firms a variety of services, including standardised processes for tendering and bidding. Most of the savings have come from companies finding more efficient suppliers and keener prices, says Mr Aguilar. Eventually, however, he expects far bigger savings to be made from making supply chains more effective. The exchange is offering increasingly sophisticated services, such as auctions that factor in transportation costs, different currencies and even the notional cost of having to build a new relationship after switching suppliers. The process is also faster and more transparent than before it moved online. Placing new contracts would often involve weeks of haggling and many meetings between a company and its suppliers. Sometimes the negotiations would become rather adversarial. At other times the relationship would be a little too cosy, with backhanders in cash or kind offered to clinch an order. The B2B side of the auction business avoids such excesses. After a difficult start, it now seems set to grow. Virtual fun May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/D2004SU4.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET  There are plenty of ways to amuse yourself online E-COMMERCE companies like to sum up in a single phrase what their business is about. Making inefficient markets efficient, is how  HYPERLINK "http://www.ebay.com/" \t "_blank" eBay's management explains what it does. We try to figure out what customers want and then give it to them, says  HYPERLINK "http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/subst/home/home.html/002-8479680-1510448" \t "_blank" Amazon's Jeff Bezos. Reed Hastings's one-liner is more curious: We're a goose-bump-delivery device. Having got stung with a $40 late-payment charge for failing to return a rented DVD on time, Mr Hastings decided there had to be an easier way to rent movies. In 1999 he started an online subscription service called  HYPERLINK "http://www.netflix.com/Default" \t "_blank" Netflix. The company, based in Los Gatos, California, now has 1.5m subscribers who order DVDs over the internet and receive and return them through the post. This might not seem very innovative, but it has been extraordinarily successful. Netflix went public in 2002. In 2003 it had revenues of $272m, up 78% on the year before, and made its first profit, of $6.5m. If the business keeps this up, revenues will hit $1 billion in 2006. Netflix faces a host of competitors, including high-street giants such as Blockbuster, which has seen a decline in DVD rentals. So how does the company differentiate itself from the rest? That is where the goose-bumps come in. Movies are about emotions as much as entertainment. Seeing a good movie can make someone's day. People like to tell others about it, and the word spreads. What Netflix does is to make this happen easily and cheaply. For $19.95 a month you can rent up to three DVDs at a time and keep them for as long as you like. Users compile an online list of films they want to see. When they return a DVD in its pre-paid mailing envelope, the next one on their list is delivered, usually overnight. Netflix has more than 18,000 movie titles on offer, which would overwhelm most bricks-and-mortar stores. But it also tries to build a sense of community amongst its members, encouraging them to write reviews and to compare and discuss their viewing lists. Just as Amazon does with books, Netflix also makes personal recommendations based on subscribers' past viewing habits. Blockbuster is now trying to copy Netflix with its own version of online DVD renting. So too is Wal-Mart. But provided Netflix can keep up its service levels, it should stay ahead of the pack. It is expanding in other American cities and is planning to launch a service in Britain. Wal-Mart may be the world's largest retailer, but it is not an obvious brand for movie buffs to turn to. The next big thing is likely to be video-on-demand. That is not necessarily a threat for Netflix: its business proposition is delivering movies, and whether a film arrives through the post or is downloaded via a broadband link should not make any difference. The company plans to introduce its first downloading service later this year. But Mr Hastings expects only modest interest at first because DVDs are so easy and convenient to use, and many of the latest DVD players are portable. That could change, he reckons, once DVD players come equipped with wireless, high-speed internet links for downloads. Tipping over The main reason why people in the e-commerce industry are watching Netflix with such interest is that the movie-delivery business may be close to the tipping point, where offline rivals find that so many of their customers have migrated to the internet that their businesses are no longer viable. This can take time to happen, perhaps until leases on shops come up for renewal and declining revenues persuade proprietors to throw in the towel. In part of the San Francisco Bay area, Netflix has already achieved a household penetration of 7%, which could rise to 10% within a year. In the travel industry, where 20% of bookings in America are now online, many high-street travel agents are already shutting up shop. As the offline world retreats, the online businesses will get another boost. That already seems to be happening in the music world, where traditional record shops are closing as millions of music files are downloaded, many of them to be stored on portable players. The most successful portable music player, so far, is Apple's iPod. The introduction in America in February of a new, slimmer version proved so successful that the company delayed its European launch because of a shortage of hard drives for the machines (providing an opportunity for eBay entrepreneurs to offer these scarce itemsat a premiumto customers in Europe). Thanks to the combination of its fashionable technology and its online music store, iTunes, Apple is now selling some 2.5m songs a week. But to expand its sales worldwide, it still needs to establish a music-downloading service outside Americaand comply with many different copyright laws. The music files available from iTunes are compatible only with Apple's iPod, but Apple has done a deal with Hewlett-Packard for its iTunes jukebox software to be pre-installed on that company's computers, which should increase its number of users. This summer, HP will also start to offer its own-brand version of the iPod. Meanwhile, if rival manufacturers using a different system can get a foothold, Apple's early lead could be eroded. A number of big groups are challenging Apple. Wal-Mart, for one, is pricing its downloadable songs at 88 cents, as against 99 cents at iTunes. As with movies, Wal-Mart may not be a strong brand in music, but the retail giant cannot be dismissed lightly. Microsoft and Sony are among the other companies working on new players and online music services. And further disruption could come in the form of different products. Mobile phones, for instance, are carried around by people most of the time, so it seems likely that they too will become portable music players. Online music is potentially big business, but people have to be persuaded to pay for it. When  HYPERLINK "http://www.napster.com/" \t "_blank" Napster operated an illegal file-sharing service for music fans, up to 50m people a day were using it. The music industry hounded such services through the courts, and in America even brought legal action against some users. Napster, which is now owned by Roxio, a Silicon Valley software firm, has been reinvented as a paid-for service, and is promoting subscriptions rather than payment for individual tunes. The movie business is watching closely how music is sold online, but has yet to devise a coherent strategy for managing the transition to the web. This would seem to be an ideal job for IAC's Barry Diller, who reckons Hollywood is completely challenged by technological change. Following a long career as a Hollywood mogul, he became intrigued by the commercial possibilities of the internet in the late 1990s. In 2001 he sold the cable, television and film parts of his company (then called USA Networks) to France's Vivendi Universal for $10.3 billion. So far, he has spent more than $10 billion on a number of internet-related acquisitions. Is he tempted to add a film or television company to his group? Not necessarily, he says; but neither does he rule it out if a real opportunity presents itself. There are few certainties in life, reckons Mr Diller, but he does see the internet as an economic certainty. All the basic plumbing will soon be in place, from the widespread adoption of broadband to the infrastructure needed for delivery companies to get goods to customers. And yet the internet still remains capable of producing surprises. New services can leave people wondering how they ever managed without them. The most notable of these is the search engine. Spiders in the web May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/D2004SU5.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Searching for profit has become highly competitive THE tech folk in Silicon Valley knew something was up last year when another web spider appeared. Web spiders are powerful software programs that crawl around the world wide web, automatically analysing words, following links and collecting vast amounts of data. The catalogues they assemble are used by search engines to display an index of web pages in response to key words entered by a user. What was intriguing about this particular spider is that it belonged to Microsoft. Even the world's biggest software company cannot afford to ignore the power of search. Only a few years ago, search did not seem to matter very much. The gateways to the internet were going to be portals: sites such as  HYPERLINK "http://www.yahoo.com/" \t "_blank" Yahoo!, Microsoft's  HYPERLINK "http://www.msn.com/" \t "_blank" MSN and  HYPERLINK "http://www.aol.co.uk/?redirect" \t "_blank" AOL. These sites would provide users with everything they needed, including links to whatever internet pages the portals' editors deemed useful. The idea was to keep users cosseted within the portals, where they could be sold things, presented with ads and encouraged to sign up for additional services. But Sergey Brin and Larry Page had a different idea. They started building a search engine that would not only examine the words on web pages, but also look at how and where those words were being used and at the number of other websites linked to that page. Their search engine would rank pages in their likely order of usefulness. In 1998, the pair put their studies at California's Stanford University on hold to start  HYPERLINK "http://www.google.com" \t "_blank" Google. Having raised $1m, they set up in a friend's garage, answering 10,000 search queries a day. These days Google deals with more than ten times that number every second. Its search methods, which form part of a secret algorithm, have become far more elaborate. Put in the word Google, and you get links to over 45m other web pages in a quarter-secondwith google.com at the top of the list. Instead of encouraging you to linger, Google's spartan website is designed to find links as quickly as possible and move you on. For many people, it is now their launch point on to the internet. Despite its simple appearance, Google has found a way to make lots of money. Just how much became clear for the first time last month when the privately held company announced plans for a stockmarket listing, with its shares to be sold by public auction. Its net revenue in 2003 turned out to have been $962m, 176% up on the previous year. Google is an extremely successful company, but it is going to have a fight on its hands. The way to make money out of search is to sell the words people put in when they look for things on the web. This means that whoever bids the most for a particular term, digital cameras, say, gets their link on the top of a list whenever anyone types that phrase into the search box. The convention is to distinguish between independent search results and those that are paid for. Google lists its sponsored links on the right of its page; Yahoo! puts them in a box at the top. Searches are now such an important tool for connecting buyers and sellers that some companies spend most of their marketing budget on getting a high page-ranking in the sponsored lists and on various services which can help websites move up the independent listings. A website operator could, for instance, pay a search-engine-optimisation company to help him design his site to maximise its page ratings. Such companies sometimes employ tricks such as setting up ghost web pages, which make a site appear more widely used than it really is. Google and other search companies constantly fiddle with their algorithms to try to prevent their independent search results from being manipulated in this way. But there is also a grey area. Yahoo!, for instance, offers a service that lets traders pay to have their website re-crawled every 48 hours instead of waiting (sometimes up to a month) for a web spider's regular update of the search engine's catalogue of pages. Paying to be re-crawled ensures that when a search is carried out the company's latest products and prices will be included. Yahoo! says such payments do not buy a better placement in its independent results. But sites with more up-to-date information are more likely to be relevant to a search, and therefore tend to rise higher. According to most analysts, the paid-search business is leading the recovery in advertising expenditure on the internet. A study by the New York-based Interactive Advertising Bureau in partnership with PricewaterhouseCoopers, a consultancy, found that online ad spending in America last year grew by 21% to $7.3 billion. Count the clicks The great advantage of paid search as a marketing expenditure is that it has a built-in evaluation mechanism: companies pay only if a user clicks through to them from a search-engine link. Companies can also track how many of those visitors eventually end up buying something, so they can work out just how much it is worth bidding for a search term. Google's paid-search service, known as AdWords, in effect sells advertisers a pre-qualified lead, says Sheryl Sandberg, who runs the company's global online sales and operations. Google employs an automated bidding process using a version of what economists call a Vickery second-price auction. Winning bidders pay only one cent more than the bidder below them. Hence, if there are bids of $1, 50 cents, 25 cents and so on, the winner of the top place pays 51 cents a click-through, the winner of the second place pays 26 cents, and so on. This, Google believes, encourages companies to bid whatever they think a search term is worth, safe in the knowledge that the final price they pay will be less. But even payment does not necessarily guarantee the top slot. Google also ranks its sponsored links according to their usefulness, which means that if more people click on a sponsored link further down the list, that link can overtake sponsors who are paying more. That way we reward relevance, adds Ms Sandberg. The opening shot in the search war came in February when Yahoo!, also based in Silicon Valley, sacked its neighbour Google as the provider of its search engine and replaced it with a proprietary service. Yahoo! has been investing heavily in search technology. In July 2003 it paid $1.6 billion for Overture Services, a company that pioneered much of the paid-search advertising business, and in March this year it agreed to buy France's Kelkoo for euro475m ($576m). Kelkoo operates an internet search service for comparison shopping. Google also recently put a link to  HYPERLINK "http://www.google.com/froogle" \t "_blank" Froogle, its comparison-shopping service, on its main site. Yahoo!, which was also founded by two Stanford students, David Filo and Jerry Yang, has been growing strongly with the help of paid-search advertising. The first quarter of 2004 was the most successful yet in the company's history, says Terry Semel, Yahoo!'s chief executive. Both revenue and profits more than doubled on a year earlier, to $758m and $101m respectively. Yahoo! is transforming itself into a site that is part portal, part shopping mall and part search machine. Its strategy is based on what Daniel Rosensweig, Yahoo!'s chief operating officer, calls the desert island question: if you were stuck on a desert island and could have access to only one website, which one would it be? Abandoning Google, he says, gave Yahoo! a more differentiated product. Yahoo! is also starting to integrate the results of its searches with other services it provides on its website. For instance, it recently launched a service called SmartView that links searches with its online maps. This allows someone looking for a petrol station in San Francisco, for instance, to type in his location to get an interactive map with all the nearby petrol stations, and driving directions if required. Finding local information is becoming an area of hot competition. Some people believe Microsoft could put a stranglehold on Google, as it did on Netscape in the battle to control the web-browser business. At the World Economic Forum earlier this year, Microsoft's founder, Bill Gates, admitted that so far Google had well and truly beaten his company in the search business. But Microsoft will try to leapfrog the existing search engines with its own technology and integrate its service within its own software, including its Office programs and the new version of Windows, known as Longhorn, due to appear in 2006. At present, searches carried out on Microsoft's MSN site are partly powered by Yahoo!'s search engine, but that relationship is likely to end once Microsoft introduces its own technology. Windows runs more than 90% of the world's PCs, so this is bound to raise further antitrust concerns. As more computers become permanently plugged into high-speed internet connections, many more people will search directly without opening a web browser while working on a report or presentation. As with media players, the providers of rival search engines will be watching closely to see just how difficult Microsoft's new products will make life for them. At present, search marketing is considered a relatively cheap and cost-effective method of finding customers, but there are only a finite number of search terms, says Kenneth Cassar, director of strategic analysis for Nielsen//Net Ratings. This means the price of popular search terms is bound to rise, which will encourage websites to find new places for context-based ads. Websites will also try to keep their exit barriers to users high, not least by making it more convenient to stay with them than to start again somewhere else, with all the hassle of filling in personal details and credit-card information. The search business is still young, and could fragment into many different products for different purposes. That would provide opportunities for newcomers beside Microsoft.  HYPERLINK "http://www.ask.com/" \t "_blank" Ask Jeeves, for one, has become a slightly less distant third after improving its technology. And there are a number of smaller companies that could yet produce a breakthrough product with mass appeal, just as Google did when it operated out of a garage. More specialised searches, such as those concentrating on web pages that match users' interests, will be a big area of development. Someone entering the word tuning on a car-related search, for instance, would no longer have to scroll past links about musical instruments, television stations and faster software to find pages that explain how to adjust car engines. Search sites could also learn about users' interests from the links that are clicked through, or users could be invited to provide their personal preferences. Google and Yahoo! have already gone some way down this route. Both, for instance, now operate news services that not only report the latest events but also allow users to search through thousands of publications to retrieve past articles. Advertising helps pay for the internet's free services, such as search. To continue to get these things free, users may have to be prepared to accept ads. Gmail, a new free e-mail service which Google is testing, offers users more than 100 times the storage space of rival e-mail services, in return for agreeing to sponsored links being placed in their e-mails. Google's computers analyse the content of an e-mail and then dish up ads that seem appropriate. Worth paying for? Those who want to avoid ads, find a wider range of useful information or make sophisticated searches on the internet are increasingly being asked to pay. Online newspapers and magazines are one example: the free searches provided by search engines often link to pages available only on subscription. Even though so much information is available free, it can be worth paying to use a specialist search service, says Clare Hart, the boss of Factiva, a web-based news and business-information service. A joint-venture between Dow Jones and Reuters, it has around 1.6m paying subscribers and draws on almost 9,000 sources in 22 different languages, many of which are subscription-only. The tools of the system are designed to allow more precise searches and to provide results in a single format. Some companies use such services to provide virtual clippingsall the stories from newspapers and magazines that mention their firm or their product. But just think how much more valuable it would be to know in advance what might be written about you in future. A new type of search engine could get close with an automated process called data mining. WebFountain has been developed by IBM's research centre at Almaden, California, to use text analysis as a way of identifying trends, patterns and relationships from massive amounts of both unstructured and semi-structured text, ranging from bulletin boards, chat rooms, web logs, newspapers and trade journals. Factiva has licensed the technology to provide a new reputation-management service, launched this month. The idea, explains Ms Hart, is that, say, a brand manager will be able to see how his company is being perceived on the internet without having to keep checking hundreds of different sites, some of which he may not even know about. This could provide an early indication of trends and troubles. Companies could also use such services to find out what their rivals are up to. Nor would they have to be big and powerful to do so. One of the most heartening aspects of e-commerce is that the little guys often have the edge. Unlimited opportunities? May 13th 2004 From The Economist print edition  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/D2004SU7.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET  The internet offers huge scope for both business and leisure, but security urgently needs to be improved THERE has never been a better time to start a business, especially an e-business. The internet has dramatically reduced the cost of setting up, and especially of reaching customers. For about $1,000, you can buy a personal computer. A high-speed internet connection with enough space for a good website will cost around $40 a month. Marketing costs, provided you have something interesting to sell, could amount to bidding a few cents for a search-engine keyword. For a commission, sites such as  HYPERLINK "http://www.ebay.com/" \t "_blank" eBay and  HYPERLINK "http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/subst/home/home.html/002-8479680-1510448" \t "_blank" Amazon will also list your wares.  HYPERLINK "http://www.paypal.com/" \t "_blank" PayPal will look after credit-card payments, saving you the bother of establishing a merchant account. And firms such as UPS will deliver anywhere, and provide online tracking facilities for checking how far a parcel has got. All over the world, people have begun businesses this way. They might be selling avatars (virtual personas for online gaming) in South Korea; tribal carvings in South Africa; model steam-engine parts in Germany; or classic Corvettes in California. Web publishing too can now more easily be supported by advertising. Some online companies will find and place ads on your website for you, and split the revenue. Google's  HYPERLINK "https://www.google.com/adsense/" \t "_blank" AdSense service, for instance, uses the search engine's technology automatically to match the content of a website with appropriate text-based ads. The more popular a site becomes, the higher the income. E-commerce could yet turn into one of the biggest business start-up schemes ever. In a recent study, eBay found some 430,000 people in America alone who now make a full-time living or earn a substantial secondary income from trading on its site. Every year eBay holds a big get-together for its army of online entrepreneurs. Google, too, knows plenty of people who have profited from ads placed on their website. From hobby to business During the height of the dotcom boom, websites put together by enthusiasts, hobbyists or collectors were seen as fringe activities with no profit potential. Yet such people often know their subject very well, and use the internet for what it is extremely good at: finding others with similar interests and passions. Many of them have discovered sufficient numbers of like-minded people to encourage them to set up small businessesand sometimes not-so-small ones: eBay, started by Pierre Omidyar in the time-honoured fashion on a computer in his bedroom, began as a trading platform for collectibles. High-speed internet connections boost online activity all round, as demonstrated by South Korea, where some two-thirds of households have broadband. A study by Forrester showed that in Europe subscribers with broadband use their computers to do more than twice as many things online as consumers with slower internet connections. They also tend to do different things, such as downloading more movies and music files. And they publish many more web pages (see chart 6). The most commonly found ingredient in commercially successful websites, apart from original ideas, is careful analysis of how people use the site. That information can be used to develop additional services which make the site even more attractive to users. These dynamics are expressed in complex mathematical formulae which are increasingly seen as a strategic asset. The people in charge of the sums are beginning to be represented at board level. Amazon, for one, has appointed its first chief algorithms officer. By growing organically, commercial websites tend to develop loyal followers. Orbitz's Jeffrey Katz likens these groups of users to cults of internet behaviour. They may be eBayers, Yahoo! addicts or devotees of  HYPERLINK "http://www.craigslist.org/" \t "_blank" craigslist, a non-profit site providing networking, goods for sale, jobs and other links in different cities. Many people now organise their online lives around their favourite sites, in much the same way as people used to visit their favourite shops in the high street. As retailers have consolidated, giant out-of-town stores have put many of the smaller shops out of business and now threaten some department stores. In the era of Wal-Mart, main street doesn't exist any more, says Google's Sheryl Sandberg. But you can still find something like it online. Moreover, as she points out, small traders can still get into business from a PC in their bedroom.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20040515/CSU721.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  But will retail power on the web eventually become consolidated too? So far, Barry Diller's IAC is the closest thing to an internet conglomerate. Last year its net revenue was $6.3 billion. Already its various websites are able to sell such disparate things as a holiday to Miami, an introduction to a new girlfriend when you get there, an engagement ring, a wedding package, a new home and a mortgage to help the couple pay for it all. So far, the group's various sites still operate largely as independent companies. They include IAC's online travel agents, such as  HYPERLINK "http://www.expedia.com/daily/splash/GB.asp?ocntry=GB&conf=99&ckie=True&index=0" \t "_blank" expedia.com,  HYPERLINK "http://www.hotwire.com/" \t "_blank" hotwire.com and  HYPERLINK "http://uk.hotels.com/hotel-htdocs/uk/index.htm" \t "_blank" hotels.com; electronic retailing (including the televised and website services of Home Shopping Network); Ticketmaster; local, entertainment and personal services (including  HYPERLINK "http://uk.match.com/" \t "_blank" match.com); and financial services (such as  HYPERLINK "http://www.lendingtree.com/stm/default.asp" \t "_blank" lendingtree.com). Mr Diller says he does not believe in forcing synergies. He is leaving his e-commerce businesses alone so they can concentrate on becoming market leaders in their different segments. Some of these, he says, are still at an early stage of development. We do think there's a stage two, he adds. Many of our properties very naturally relate to each other. So will there be more cross-selling and combined branding? Perhaps, but only in good time, says Mr Diller. Amazon, eBay and Yahoo!, in their own ways, are also building conglomerates where all sorts of goods and services can be found. In the process, they are starting to resemble each other. But it remains to be seen if anyone can build an online version of Wal-Mart that could ruthlessly drive down costs. Many hotels have already rebelled against large online reservation services by promoting their own sites. On the internet, it is easy for suppliers to start selling directly because they do not need a store to operate from. Even  HYPERLINK "http://www.walmart.com/" \t "_blank" walmart.com does not seem to be considered particularly threatening by most other e-businesses, perhaps because creating a virtual superstore is not in itself enough to make much of a difference. The real power of e-commerce is not just the ability to buy things online and have them delivered, but how it can change the way people live and work. A new life In 2001 it was unimaginable to think that by 2004 I would not have to leave home any more and, short of needing surgery, could get everything I want from a combination of e-mail and websites, says Marian Salzman, chief strategy officer for Euro RSCG Worldwide, a big advertising agency. Based in New York, she believes more people will use the internet to work from home, either running their own businesses or teleworking for companies. For example, instead of outsourcing more call centres to India or other developing countries, companies might employ people in America or Europe who have good practical knowledge of products or services and can deal with inquiries from home. However, not everyone has a computer at home, and some people may never get one. The internet is wildly empowering for people who want to participate, but they are part of a digital elite, says Ms Salzman. So the 24% of households in America that have no internet connection are missing out on many things, not least information on products and prices. Perhaps another generation, familiar with computers from school, will have to grow up before that changes. Meanwhile, conducting business online will continue to get easier. Microsoft, for one, is working hard on all manner of B2B applications, including some that will allow its Office suite of programs to be closely integrated with e-commerce activities. This will help small and medium-sized businesses, many of which work together in business ecosystems, says Charles Fitzgerald, a senior Microsoft manager. In the future, he adds, groups of companies will increasingly use systems that pull together the information held in different parts of their organisation. Consumers should expect something similar to happen. In the near future, an online shopping service could make recommendations on the basis of personal information, such as checking the diaries people keep on their computers (provided they have given their permission). For instance, a customer might get an e-mail reminding him that it is his mother-in-law's birthday next week, along with a suggestion for a present, plus a note of what he sent last year. One click, and the present could be ordered and dispatched. Microsoft is already building the necessary tools for such services into its next generation of software. Mr Fitzgerald stresses that the model would be permission-based: customers would first have to agree to give sites access to their personal information. If they think the services are useful, some of them may well do so. But others already feel that spam, computer viruses, fraud and the theft of personal data are making the internet a dangerous place, and that access to their computers needs to be restricted, not opened up. A strong economic incentive may well persuade some people to part with more information about themselves, but any abuse would cause a huge backlash. Much irritation has already been caused by aggressive internet marketing, such as persistent pop-up ads, says Hal Varian, professor of information management at the University of California at Berkeley (and an adviser to Google). Nor, he adds, do people much like bait-and-switch tactics, used by some traders to make their prices look attractive in shopping-comparison searches. Having lured a customer to their site, the trader will try to switch the buyer to a more expensive item. Of course, caveat emptor applies as much online as its does offline. But abuses on the internet are not confined to sharp practice: criminals also use the web for much nastier things. Reliable numbers are hard to come by, not least because people would rather not admit to having been defrauded, nor do websites welcome publicity about crime. But there is plenty of evidence that all sorts of scams flourish on the internet, from identity theft to phoney auctions and bogus requests for data. Companies have to work hard to stay ahead of criminals. EBay's Rajiv Dutta insists that the share of problem transactions on his company's site is very low. Users are more likely to have their credit-card information stolen in a local shopping mall than on his website, he reckons. Still, eBay employs some 800 people around the world to police its auctions. Other sites also watch out for suspicious activity, most recently from criminal internet traders based in east European countries. Last year, losses of some $200m were reported to America's Federal Trade Commission. Nearly half the complaints involved online auctions. According to some analysts, 2003 was perhaps the worst year on the internet so far for criminal and obstructive activity, such as virus attacks. This has to be brought under control, or else consumers will retreat. Crime may yet prove the biggest threat to the development of e-commerce. A measured response It is the internet's very openness that makes contact between buyers and sellers so easy and potentially so rewarding. And just as it would not have made sense to shut up the high street because it harboured some thieves and rogues, it would make no sense to combat cybercrime by stopping all internet commerceeven assuming it could be done. But better locks and security systems are urgently needed. And at least some of the problems are due to glaring errors and omissions by software companies and firms that build websites and manage internet connections. For most people, most of the time, the internet is a great place in which to go exploring, to buy, to sell and to make a living. 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