ࡱ> q` lbjbjqPqP n::Is]2222$aaaPbaTcL#(e$e$e$e:e^w(x<dx #######$&h(^B#i|sv|||B#22$e:e#||||2$eR$e#||#||*n@d"z$ee U߯sa4jRh#0#((zl (t&x2{H|}xxxB#B# pxxx#||||$EUD U222222 pl  Axcan Pharma, Inc.(AXCA NASDAQ)$23.27Note: All new or revised material since the last report is highlighted. Reason for Report: Flash Update: No rtg chg; No tgt price chg;1 new broker comment; 1Q08 rslts LIKELY FINAL REPORT (Due to takeover) Prev. Ed.: January 22, 2008; Announced Financial Information for 1Q08 Brokers Recommendations:; Neutral: 50.0% (4 firms); Negative: 50.0% (4) Positive: 0% Prev. Ed.: 4; 4; 0 Brokers Target Price: $23.35 (! to the last report; 7 firms) Brokers Avg. Expected Return: 0.34%  Flash News Update, Opinion, Rating Changes On January 31, 2008, AXCA reported its financial results for 1Q08. 1Q08 revenue was $92.9 million, a 17.9% Increase versus 1Q07. Diluted net income per share in 1Q08 amounted to $0.39, versus $0.34 in 1Q07. The Digest predicted average was $0.35. During 1Q08, Axcan announced that it had entered into an agreement for all the outstanding shares of Axcan to be acquired by an affiliate of TPG Capital in an all-cash transaction with a total value of approximately $1.3 billion. On January 25, 2008, the shareholders of the company voted in favour of the transaction, which is expected to close in the first quarter of calendar 2008. One analyst (Thomas Weisel) dropped coverage on the stock. FOR DETAILED CHANGES IN ANALYSTS OPINIONS, PLEASE SEE THE LAST SECTION OF THIS REPORT.  Recent Events [Note: not changed since last report; except where highlighted] On January 21, 2008, AXCA announced financial information for 1Q08 and its revenue in 1Q08 was $93 million versus $78.8 million in 1Q07. On January 10, 2008, AXCA announced the early termination of its waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, related to the proposed acquisition of Axcan by TPG Capital and its affiliates. On December 20, 2007, AXCA announced that the Quebec Superior Court issued an interim order authorizing holding a special meeting of Axcan shareholders, at which shareholders will be asked to reconsider the previously-announced arrangement with TPG Capital and its affiliates. The special meeting will be held on January 25, 2008.  Overview [Note: not changed since last report] Analysts have identified the following factors for evaluating the investment merits of AXCA: Key Positive ArgumentsKey Negative Arguments.AXCA has strong cash flow, which would help it in product acquisitions in the future.AXCA lacks major revenue drivers, more so due to the failure of the international ITAX trial and poor execution in the core business over the past two years.AXCAs broad and a promising R&D pipeline make it a very promising name in this sector.Greater-than-expected generic competition would lead to lower-than-forecast revenue.The companys sales force is widely spread out across its markets, making market penetrate more effective.The high wholesale inventory level might negatively impact revenue in the future.AXCAs multi-drug pipeline with a balanced mix of short and long-term opportunities dilutes the risk of drug development.AXCA relies heavily on in-licensing activity to build its pipeline.AXCAs lifecycle management initiatives would support the companys existing franchise. Based in Mont saint Hilaire, Quebec, Axcan Pharma, Inc. (AXCA) is a leading specialty pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a broad line of gastrointestinal (GI) products, primarily in North America and Europe. Through internal product development and synergistic acquisitions of products and companies, Axcan has built a leadership position in the North American gastroenterology market; more than 80% of the company's business is generated from North American sales. Currently, the company markets more than 40 GI products and dosage strengths worldwide for the treatment of symptoms in a number of gastrointestinal diseases and disorders such as inflammatory bowel disease, irritable bowel syndrome, cholestatic liver diseases, pancreatic diseases, esophageal cancer, and complications related to cystic fibrosis including several that hold a leading market position. In addition to its marketing activities, Axcan carries out research and development of products at an advanced stage of development that it acquires or licenses from third parties. By combining its marketing expertise with its research and development experience, Axcan distinguishes itself from specialty pharmaceutical companies that focus solely on the distribution of products and offers potential licensors the prospect of rapidly expanding the market for their products. Within the last several years, Axcan has actively targeted and acquired products and companies in North America and Western Europe and primarily focuses its operations within these regions. The companys website is  HYPERLINK "http://www.axcan.com" http://www.axcan.com. Note: AXCAs fiscal year ends on September 30; fiscal references do not coincide with the calendar. December 3, 2007  Revenue [Note: not changed since last report] Axcan's current products include Ultrase, Panzytrat, and Viokase for the treatment of certain gastrointestinal symptoms; Urso/Urso 250, Urso Forte/Urso DS, and Delursan for the treatment of certain cholestatic liver diseases; Salofalk and Canasa for the treatment of certain inflammatory bowel diseases; and Carafate/Sulcrate for the treatment of gastric duodenal ulcers. According to the company, total revenue in 4Q07 was $92.5 million, compared with $72.3 million in 4Q06, an increase of 27.9%. Total revenue of $348.9 million in FY07 exceeded the top end of the company's previously-issued guidance range of $335-343 million. The FY06 total revenue was $292.3 million, which implies an increase of 19.4% y/y in FY07. Based on its best estimate derived from information obtained from a number of its wholesalers in the United States, the company believes that changes in wholesaler inventory levels favorably impacted revenue by approximately $7.0 million in 4Q07. The company believes that increases in wholesaler inventory levels did not have a material impact on revenue in FY07. According to Zacks Digest report, total revenue in 4Q07 was $92.5 million, compared with $71.9 million in 4Q06, an increase of 28.0% y/y. Total revenue in FY07 was $348.8 million versus $291.8 million in FY06, an increase of 19.4% y/y. On January 21, 2008, AXCA announced revenue in 1Q08 of $93 million versus $78.8 million in 1Q07. Revenue ($M)2006A1Q07A2Q07A3Q07A4Q07A2007A2008E2009ETotal Revenue$292.0 $78.8 $85.3 $92.3 $92.5 $348.8 $341.9 $296.0 Digest High$292.3 $78.8 $85.3 $92.3 $92.5 $348.9 $354.0 $296.0 Digest Low$289.0 $78.8 $85.3 $92.3 $92.5 $348.0 $330.6 $296.0 Digest YoY Growth16.2%11.6%17.2%20.4%28.0%19.4%-2.0%-13.4% The graphical analysis of key drugs is given below:     Products Urso 250/Urso forte Indication: For the treatment of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), a chronic liver disease that slowly destroys the ducts that drain bile in the liver. Sales: U.S. prescriptions in 4Q07 and FY07 were almost flat compared with the 4Q06 and FY06 levels. Total unit growth in dollars, when adjusted for the dosage strength differential between 250-mg dosage, and 500-mg dosage prescriptions, showed a 2.9% increase in 4Q07 and 4.8% in FY07. Further, as Axcan transitions to new eligibility rules in its patient assistance programs, the company is realizing revenues from prescriptions that were provided free of charge, or at a reduced cost in prior periods. Total sales of Urso products in North America in 4Q07 and FY07 increased 37.3% and 25.1% y/y, respectively. Canadian Urso sales were impacted by generic erosion during the quarter, but the company believes that sales are beginning to stabilize. Carafate Indication: For the short-term treatment of an active duodenal ulcer. Sales: U.S. prescriptions in 4Q07 and FY07 increased 3.2% and 6.3% y/y, respectively, as the company continues to benefit from the promotional efforts in fiscal 2007 on Carafte oral suspension, which created prescription growth and increased the size of the prescription dispensed. U.S. sales in 4Q07 and FY07 increased 57.0% and 21.7% y/y, respectively. The instability of wholesaler inventory levels in 2006 was the main reason for the difference seen between prescriptions and sales results. Lacteol Indication: For the treatment of diarrhea in adults and children Sales: Sales of Lacteol in Europe and elsewhere in the world decreased 24.2% y/y in 4Q07 and declined 10.0% y/y in FY07. In local currency, Lacteol sales decreased 28.7% y/y in 4Q07 and decreased 17.0% y/y in FY07. In Germany the product grew 10% y/y in local currency. Panzytrat Indication: For the treatment of exocrine pancreatic insufficiency and exocrine pancreatic deficiency. Sales: In 4Q07, sales of Panzytrat expressed decreased 35.6% y/y in U.S. dollars and decreased 39.6% y/y in local currency, compared to 4Q06. In FY07, Panzytrat sales increased 22.6% in U.S. dollars and increased 13.8% y/y in local currency. The increase was largely due to the strong sales of this product in Germany, and also to the positive impact of distribution agreements with new partners that have been signed for the export markets over the last few months. Partners: AXCA had signed an agreement to acquire a pancreatic enzyme line of products from Abbott Laboratories (Abbott) for U.S. $45 million in cash. Delursan Indication: For the treatment of cholestatic liver diseases, including primary biliary cirrhosis, sclerosing cholangitis, and liver disorders related to cystic fibrosis. Sales: In 4Q07 and FY07, sales of Delursan expressed in U.S. dollars increased 22.0% and 20.0% y/y, respectively. In local currency, Delursan sales increased 14.4% and 11.1% y/y, respectively. This was mainly due to the company's ongoing efforts to increase the uptake of the product by gastroenterologists in France. Canasa / Salofalk Rectal Gel Indication: For the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease such as Crohns disease, ulcerative colitis, and ulcerative proctitis. Product Life Cycle Position: Axcan recently completed Phase III studies to confirm the efficacy and safety of a new mesalamine rectal gel in the treatment of distal ulcerative colitis. The drug is marketed as Canasa in the U.S. and Salofalk in Canada. Sales: U.S. prescriptions in 4Q07 and FY07 increased 2.5% and 3.9% y/y, respectively. U.S. sales in 4Q07 and FY07 increased 4.5% and 22.6% y/y, respectively. In FY07, the dollar growth of this product does not reflect prescription growth, due to wholesaler ordering patterns experienced during both periods presented. Further, as Axcan transitioned to new eligibility rules in its patient assistance programs, the company is realizing revenue from prescriptions that were provided free of charge or at a reduced cost in prior periods. Additional Studies: Axcan has initiated the Canasa MAX-002 trial, a Phase III clinical trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a novel, high-concentration, 1 gram mesalamine suppository for the treatment of ulcerative proctitis. In June 2007, the FDA issued draft guidance on the type of clinical program required for the approval of mesalamine suppositories. Based on this guidance, Axcan temporarily suspended the recruitment of this trial and expects to resume it in the first half of calendar 2008, upon completion of the ongoing discussions with the FDA. Pylera (Helizide) Indication: For the eradication of Helicobacter pylori, which is the primary cause of gastric and duodenal ulcers. Regulatory Issues: Axcan launched Pylera at the beginning of May 2007 in the United States. Pylera is a patented 3-in-1 capsule triple therapy, for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori, which is a bacterium now recognized as being the main cause of gastric and duodenal ulcers. Each Pylera capsule contains biskalcitrate potassium (140 mg), metronidazole (125 mg), and tetracycline hydrochloride (125 mg). The U.S. patent on the Pylera capsule technology expires in December 2018. Additional Studies: Axcan intends to initiate a Phase III clinical program with Pylera in Europe to obtain approval to market this therapy for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori. This Phase III clinical trial will be conducted in approximately 400 patients and will compare Axcan's Pylera regimen given in combination with omeprazole, to the widely used OAC triple therapy (20 mg of omeprazole, 1 g of amoxicillin and 500 mg of clarithromycin). The trial is expected to be completed in the second half of calendar 2009. Pipeline Drugs NCX-1000 Indication: For the treatment of portal hypertension. Partners: Axcan and its partner, NicOx S.A., are developing NCX-1,000, a patented, nitric oxide donating derivative of ursodiol, for the treatment of portal hypertension, a late-stage complication of chronic, advanced liver disease. Recent Results: A preliminary analysis of 11 patients in a proof-of-concept, Phase IIa randomized, double-blind, dose-escalating study, in which patients received either escalating doses of NCX-1,000 or a placebo, confirmed the safety profile of NCX-1,000 but did not demonstrate the efficacy required to support the continuation of this clinical trial. As a consequence, Axcan and NicOx have agreed not to further pursue the development of NCX-1,000 and to terminate the clinical trial. The two companies will now proceed with full data analysis and results will be disclosed at a later date. Axcan and NicOx are actively evaluating opportunities for further collaborative development projects involving NicOx's technology, and Axcan is currently evaluating another NicOx molecule to be developed in the field of gastroenterology. Ursodiol Disulfate Indication: Colonic tumors Additional Studies: Axcan is currently studying the use of Ursodiol Disulfate for the prevention of the recurrence of colorectal adenomateous polyps, considered to be a pre-cancerous stage of colorectal cancer. Preliminary results of studies conducted with Ursodiol Disulfate showed that Ursodiol Disulfate reduces the number of aberrant crypts in a rat model of colon cancer. Aberrant crypts are considered to be early abnormal changes in the intestinal lining that are precursors to colon cancer. Axcan completed a single, ascending-dose Phase I clinical study in early 2006, as well as a multiple, ascending-dose Phase I study in September 2006, to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and preliminary pharmacokinetics of ursodiol disulfate. Both studies confirmed the safety and tolerability of this compound. The final Phase I study report should be available at the beginning of calendar 2008. Ultrase / Viokase Indication: Treatment for patients with exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. Ultrase and Viokase facilitate the digestion of food by allowing the delivery of enzymes into the duodenum (small intestine). Regulatory Issues: In 2004, the United States FDA formally notified manufacturers of pancreatic insufficiency products that these drugs, which include Ultrase and Viokase, must receive approval before April 2008, in order to remain in the market. This deadline was recently extended to April 2010. The FDA has published final guidelines aimed at assisting manufacturers of exocrine pancreatic insufficiency drug products in preparing and submitting these New Drug Applications. Axcan completed the clinical trial program and produced the CMC (chemistry, manufacturing and control) data required for its NDA for Ultrase and submitted the NDA in 4Q07. The clinical work required for Axcan to submit an NDA for Viokase is currently ongoing. For both products the company expects to be compliant with the FDA-defined timelines. Sales: U.S. prescriptions increased 10.4% and 7.4% in 4Q07 and FY07 y/y, respectively. Axcan is beginning to realize sales from the steatorrhea market, within the general gastrointestinal market outside of cystic fibrosis. U.S. sales in 4Q07 and FY07 increased 92.4% and 22.6% y/y, respectively, driven by prescription growth as well as wholesaler ordering patterns experienced during 4Q07 and 4Q06. The company continues to leverage its Care First and Comprehensive Care programs for CF patients. NMK 150 Indication: For the relief of pain in small duct chronic pancreatitis. Partners: Axcan and Nordmark GmbH, a German pharmaceutical firm, are collaborating in the development of NMK 150. Recent Results: Dose-ranging pre-clinical studies to assess the toxicity of NMK 150, paying special attention to duodenal irritation, were completed, and confirmed the safety profile of this compound. NMK 150 was administered daily by oral capsules in these studies. A Phase I, ascending, multiple-dose clinical study was also completed and confirmed the safety and tolerability of this compound alone and in combination with a PPI. Phase I study report would be available at the beginning of calendar 2008. AGI 010 In 2006, AXCA announced the signature of an exclusive license and co-development agreement with AGI Therapeutics, plc for Chronab omeprazole (AGI-010). AGI-010 is a delayed/controlled release formulation of the proton pump inhibitor drug (PPI) Omeprazole and is being developed for the treatment of gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD), and in particular, to address the control of night time gastric acidity, known as nocturnal acid breakthrough (NAB), which remains a significant unmet medical need and is estimated to occur in more than 50% of GERD patients on a PPI therapy. Development of the final formulation for this compound showed encouraging results that the company has decided to investigate further. An additional formulation study has been initiated and is expected to be completed in the first half of calendar 2008. Once this process is finalized, Axcan and AGI intend to make a decision on the most appropriate development and filing strategy for this product. CX401 On September 30, 2007, Axcan entered into an exclusive license and development agreement with Cellerix SL of Spain, for the North American (United States, Canada and Mexico) rights to Cx401, an innovative biological product in development for the treatment of perianal fistulas. A Phase II trial conducted in 50 patients in Europe demonstrated the efficacy and safety of Cx401. This randomized, open-label, parallel assignment study evaluated the safety and efficacy of Cx401 in the treatment of perianal fistulas in Crohn's and non-Crohn's Disease patients. The primary endpoint for this study was photographically assessed complete closure and healing, and showed a 71% response rate in the acute phase, both in Crohn's and non-Crohn's Disease patients. Results of this study were presented at the Digestive Disease Week (DDW) in May 2007. Axcan will be responsible for the development of this product in North America, and expects to initiate a Phase IIb study in North America in fiscal 2008.  Margins [Note: not changed since last report] According to the Zacks Digest average, gross margin in 4Q07 was 75.6%, up 60 bps from 75% in 4Q06. In 4Q07, cost of goods sold increased to $22.6 million from $18.0 million in 4Q06. As a percentage of revenue, cost of goods sold in 4Q07 decreased to 24.4% from 25.0% in 4Q06. Operating margin in 4Q07 was 26.1%, up 740 bps from 18.7% in 4Q06. R&D expenses in 4Q07 were $12.2 million, down 12.1% from $13.9 million in 4Q06. SG&A expenses in 4Q07 were $27.7 million, up 29.4% from $21.4 million in 4Q06. According to the Zacks Digest average, gross margin in FY07 was 76.0%, up 90 bps from 75.1% in FY06. In FY07, cost of goods sold increased to $83.7 million from $72.6 million in FY06. As a percentage of revenue, cost of goods sold in FY07 decreased to 24.0% from 24.9% in FY06. Operating margin in FY07 was 30.9%, up 1020 bps from 20.7% in FY06. R&D expenses in FY07 were $33.7 million, down 13.5% from $38.9 million in FY06. SG&A expenses in FY07 were $101.3 million, up 9.3% from $92.7 million in FY06. The company's research and development and selling and administrative expenses were within the guidance ranges. Margins2006A1Q07A2Q07A3Q07A4Q07A2007A2008E2009EGross75.1%75.6%74.9%77.8%75.6%76.0%76.6%76.3%Operating20.7%32.8%30.3%34.7%26.1%30.9%26.7%22.8%Pre tax 20.7%33.3%30.9%35.7%28.7%32.1%31.3%29.3%Net14.2%22.4%21.3%21.3%22.3%22.0%21.0%19.6%  Earnings per Share [Note: not changed since last report] According to the company, net income in 4Q07 was $16.8 million or $0.30 per diluted share, compared with net income of $8.3 million or $0.17 per diluted share in 4Q06. Net income in 4Q07 included a $10.0 million-provision ($7.6 million post-tax) for the upfront payment related to the in-licensing of Cx401. This charge had a negative impact on post-tax earnings per share of $0.14 in 4Q07. Diluted EPS in FY07 was $1.33 versus $0.79 in 2006. According to the Zacks Digest report, net income in 4Q07 was $20.6 million, up 95.2% from $10.6 million in 4Q06. The Digest 4Q07 pro forma EPS was 0.33 versus $0.18 in 4Q06,an increase of 86.3% y/y. Net income in FY07, according to the Zacks Digest report, was $76.9 million versus $41.6 million in FY06, an increase of 84.8% y/y. The Digest FY07 EPS was $1.37 versus $0.80 in FY06, an increase of 72.3% y/y. EPS2006A1Q07A2Q07A3Q07A4Q07A2007A2008E2009EDigest High$0.85 $0.34 $0.35 $0.37 $0.43 $1.53 $1.40 $1.50 Digest Low$0.79 $0.34 $0.34 $0.36 $0.30 $1.28 $1.20 $1.01 Digest Avg.$0.80 $0.34 $0.34 $0.36 $0.33 $1.37 $1.30 $1.26 Digest YoY growth42.0%78.9%100.5%37.5%86.3%72.3%-5.5%-3.1%  Target Price/Valuation [Note: This section has been changed] All the brokerage firms provided a target price of $23.35 (! to the previous report, 0.34% upside from current price). The firms in the Digest group used forward EPS estimate and discounted FCF methodologies to derive the target price. Of the nine firms currently reporting on the stock, four assigned neutral ratings and four gave negative ratings, while one has not provided any rating. Rating DistributionPositive0%Neutral50%Negative50%Avg. Target Price$23.35 Diogest High$23.35Digest Low$23.4 NO of analyst with TP / Total7/10 Capital Structure/Solvency/Cash Flow/Governance/Other [Note: not changed since last report] On November 29, 2007, Axcan Pharma Inc. announced an agreement for Axcan to be acquired by TPG Capital and its affiliates in an all-cash transaction with a total value of approximately US$1.3 billion. Under the terms of the transaction, TPG Capital and its affiliates will acquire all of the common shares of Axcan for an offer price of $23.35 per common share. The purchase price represents a 28% premium over the average trading price of Axcan's common shares on November 28, 2007, the last trading day on the NASDAQ prior to this announcement. Axcan anticipates that the transaction will be completed in the first quarter of calendar 2008. The Board of Directors of Axcan unanimously approved the agreement and urged shareholders to vote for the offer. One firm (Blackmont) feels this acquisition by a private equity group is a good strategic move. Once acquired, AXCA management will not have to worry about quarter to quarter financial performance and will be able to instead focus on long-term growth. On October 1, 2007, Axcan entered into an exclusive license and development agreement with Cellerix SL (Cellerix) of Spain, for the North American (United States, Canada and Mexico) rights to Cx401, an innovative biological product in development for the treatment of perianal fistulas. Under the terms of the agreement, Axcan made a US$10 million upfront payment to Cellerix, plus regulatory milestone payments that could total up to US $30 million. Furthermore, Axcan will pay scaled royalties based on the net sales of Cx401. Axcan has also agreed to make an equity investment of up to US $5 million in Cellerix, if Cellerix completes its initial public offering within 3 years of the effective date of the agreement. One firm (Merrill) believes Cx401 is one of the products with higher R&D spending given AXCA's relatively lean pipeline. December 3, 2007  Potentially Severe Problems [Note: not changed since last report] The major problems for AXCA include (1) dependence on business development Axcan relies heavily on in-licensing activity to build its pipeline (does not have an internal drug discovery function) and (2) product liability. December 3, 2007  Long-Term Growth [Note: not changed since last report] The long-term growth for AXCA depends on the successful completion of an accretive product acquisition. Management has stated the desire to acquire a product within the established therapeutic areas of gastroenterology (GI) and endocrinology. According to most analysts, acquiring a drug with a suitable product profile, if accretive, could add one to two years of positive momentum to Axcans financials. This could help to tide over the current difficulties with little in the product pipeline to drive growth. Simultaneously, it will also be important to acquire earlier-stage products so that in the future, growth rates can be sustained with products arriving to the market on a continuing basis. This would enable Axcan to change from a sales and marketing company to a more fully vertically integrated company. Axcans development pipeline remains solid. Moreover, Ultrase and Viokase are likely to see fewer competitors in FY08, as the FDAs demand for full NDAs for these products may see some generics exit the market. With competitors off the market, the recently-launched Pylera will get the full attention of the sales force. December 3, 2007  Upcoming Events [Note: not changed since last report] DateEventDrugApril 2008Receive NDA approvalUltrase and Viokase  Individual Analyst Opinions [Note: This section has been updated.] POSITIVE RATINGS NONE NEUTRAL RATINGS Punk, Ziegel Market Perform (target price: $23.35) November 30, 2007. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm expects generic competition for Urso and Canasa (which comprise 40% of AXCAs revenue) and expects the Pylera launch to be weak. The firm apprehends there is only limited upside to Ultrase revenue and that the pipeline remains weak. The firm also anticipates that the companys business development efforts would remain disappointing. BMO Capital Market Perform (target price: $23.35) December 21, 2007. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm believes the stock price already factors in the acquisition. It also feels a competing bid for the company is unlikely. CIBC Sector Performer (target price: $23.35) November 29, 2007: The firm increased the target price from $21 to $23.35. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm sees little risk of the deal not closing at $23.35 per share, but cannot rule out the possibility of competing bids by strategic players and/or other private equity players. RBC Cap. Sector Perform (target price $23.35) January 31, 2008: The firm reiterated the rating. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm feels that Axcan continues to execute well on sales and marketing. NEGATIVE RATINGS Blackmont Tender (target price: $23.35) November 30, 2007: The firm decreased the target price from $24 to $23.35 and downgraded the stock from Buy to Tender. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm believes the company's pipeline offers little near-term growth potential and growing through acquisition would be expensive and dilutive. The firm believes that Axcan is at a turning point and would have to consider new acquisitions to get to the next level. The firm believes the transaction with TPG Capital is a good strategic move. Dundee Tender (target price: $23.35) November 29, 2007: The firm increased the target price from $19 to $23.35 and downgraded the stock from Market Neutral to Tender. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm feels there is a small to moderate likelihood of a higher bid from another party. National Bank Financial Tender January 11, 2007: The firm reiterated the rating. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm feels AXCA is a take out candidate due to its robust cash flow and underleveraged balance sheet. TD Newcrest Tender (target price: $23.35) November 29, 2007: The firm decreased the target price from $19 to $23.35 and downgraded the stock from Hold to Tender. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm believes that Axcan in at the cusp of a difficult transition period without the benefit of a clear organic growth engine or good acquisition prospects. Its valuation multiples will contract in 2008 in the firms view. NOT RATED Merrill November 29, 2007. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm feels that due to the acquisition announcement, the stock is no longer trading on fundamentals. DROPPED COVERAGE Thomas Weisel February 14, 2008. INVESTMENT SUMMARY The firm dropped coverage on the stock. 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