ࡱ> E@ Ebjbj  {eDtVtVtVV|pWY(@YRYYYcccccc4666666$RZtobccttZYYoyyyt4<YY4yt4y(yy |yY Y AE|tVt(y{<0y$ulyycchy%loccccccZZ=By(B THE GROWING PAINS OF AN INTERNET ICON THE HIGHS AND LOWS OF AMAZON.COM by Wayne E. Pauli A Paper Presented in Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements of OD 501 Survey of Research in Organizational and Group Dynamics December 2002 Address:805 North Olive AvenueCity, State, Zip:Madison, SD 57042Phone:605-636-9323E-mail:wayne.pauli@dsu.eduInstructor:Dr. John LathamMentor:TBD Abstract The change of the Internet from being a content provider to a retailing bastion has had a huge impact on how business as usual is now transacted. Only 1% of all commerce is now completed online, but the numbers are growing rapidly. Spurring this expansion is Amazon.com, and its CEO and founder, Jeff Bezos. The customer-centric focus that Bezos instilled as a driving force continues today. Accumulated operating losses of over $2.8 Billion dollars has not deterred this company from striving to reach its vision of working hard, having fun, and making history. Table of Contents Table of Contents ii List of Tables (if tables used) iii List of Figures (if figures used) iv Introduction 1 Methodology 2 Work Hard, Have Fun, Make History 3 History is Made 6 Famous or Infamous 9 Reactions by Investors 13 Enter the P for Profit 15 The Changing Effect on Jeff Bezos 18 Better Days Ahead 20 Conclusion 21 References 23 List of Tables Table 1: Total Customers at Amazon.com 5 Table 2: Distribution Centers 7 Table 3: Total Annual Sales Amazon.com 8 Table 4: Amazon.com Key Strategic Partnerships 12 Table 5: Stock price Comparisons 14 Table 6 Amazon.com Annual Net Losses 15 List of Figures Figure 1: The 8 Is that Make a We 11 Figure 2 The E-Business Value Matrix 17 The Growing Pains of an Internet Icon The Highs and Lows of Amazon.com Arthur Koestler, Hungarian born novelist, journalist, and critic is quoted in Gareth Morgans book, Creative Organization Theory, as follows: Of all forms of mental activity, the most difficult to induce even in the minds of the young, who may be presumed to have not lost their flexibility, is the art of handling the same bundle of data as before, but placing them in a new system of relations with one another by giving them a different framework. (Morgan, 1989) While traveling west bound on Interstate 90, the desire of creating a new framework by a thirty year old professional named Jeff Bezos resulted in Amazon.com. It was 1994, the Internet had been growing by 2300% per year, and Bezos was working as a Senior Vice President for Wall Street based D.E. Shaw and Company. His vision on how to take advantage of the exploding growth of the Internet was online retailing.(Staff,2000) Although unclear at that time, the Internet was thought to be the device that would lead to significant changes in the way books were not only purchased, but read, written, and promoted. (Goldsborough, 1999). This paper will delve in to the company that some people call the Internet; whether the Internet is what it is because of Amazon, or in spite of Amazon, it is the biggest boon to literacy since the invention of the printing press. (Goldsborough, 1999). Methodology The methodology employed is qualitative in nature, using secondary sources of information. Resources for this paper were secured through the following areas: ABI/INFORM a database of business information for more than 30 years. ABI/INFORM contains content from thousands of journals that assist a researcher in tracking business conditions, trends, management techniques, corporate strategies, and industry-specific topics worldwide. The database was accessed through the Proquest portal located on the Karl E. Mundt Library homepage (www.departments.dsu.edu/library). Karl E. Mundt Library is on the campus of Dakota State University, Madison, SD. In addition, resource searches were limited to periodicals with a 1999 to current data range, and from peer reviewed publications only. Significant research was also conducted through websites utilizing the MSN search engine. The purposes for website searching was basically two fold; one to get biographical information on Jeff Bezos, and secondly to get the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) reports as filed by Amazon.com on a quarterly basis since the company went public in 1997. A plethora of books were also used to glean data from, with the majority of them coming from coursework through Capella University, and through voluntary personal readings. According to the authors of The Craft of Research, If a writer wants his readers to change their minds about something important to them, you cannot simply claim, you have to give reasons and evidence for believing. (Booth, Colomb, & Williams, 1995) The reasons and evidence about to be presented are to change the mindset of doubters concerning the positive impact that Amazon.com has had. Work Hard, Have Fun, Make History In 1899, Theodore Roosevelt is quoted as follows: Far better to dare things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows no victory, nor defeat. (Collins & Porras, 1997) The above quotation is also the preface for a chapter in Collins and Porras book entitled, Big Hairy Audacious Goals. These are goals that are challenging, often risky, and normally equated with a visionary company. (Collins & Porras, 1997) Jeff Bezos began Amazon.com prior to the writings of Collins and Porras. That does not mean that he does not believe in the teaching of Built to Last, but rather that while working on Wall Street, and watching the Internet grow at an annualized rate of 2300% in 1994, Bezos claimed his Big Hairy Audacious Goal, that being Amazon. Bezos concept was that the Internet was about people, his first customers were his friends, and his first product was books. (Louie & Rayport, 2001) To further testify to the fact that the Internet is about people, Robert Thames writing for Strategic Finance comments that, the 1980s competitive pressures were price, but today, the power thanks to e-business is with the individual. (Thames, 2000) A Big Hairy Audacious Goal engages people, it reaches out and grabs them, it is also energizing, and people get it right away. Continuing on with descriptions, they are bold, looking more audacious to outsiders than to insiders. (Collins & Porras, 1997) The ongoing verbalization of the Big Hairy Audacious Goal for Amazon has become its credo, that being Work Hard, Have Fun, Make History. (Louie & Rayport, 2001) In the truest sense of the words describing Big Hairy Audacious Goals, Amazon has captured the very essence with its credo. Let us look at Table 1 to ascertain if the people Got it with Amazon: Table 1 Total Customers at Amazon.com YEAR ENDNUMBER OF CUSTOMERS1996180,00019971,500,00019986,200,000199916,900,000200024,700,000200132,000,000 (Louie & Rayport,2001) From the standpoint of creating and fulfilling his Big Hairy Audacious Goal, Jeff Bezos without a doubt has been successful. A quote from turn of the Century (20th Century) business man and Time Magazines man of the Year for 1929 Owen D. Young says a great deal about Amazon.com, It takes vision and courage to create it takes faith and courage to prove. Jeff Bezos proved that he has the vision and courage to create, and only time will tell about the faith and courage to prove. History is Made During the late Fall of 1999, Time magazine named Jeff Bezos their Person of the Year for 1999. (Thames, 2000) Amazon had arrived in the public mainstream. Over 16,000,000 people had Amazon.com accounts, which had accounted for in excess of $1.6 Billion dollars in sales. (Louie & Rayport, 2001) With the click of a mouse, customers on their own PCs were purchasing the goods they desired from the Amazon website. Customers, sales, and visitations were increasing daily at Amazon.com. Amazon through the empowerment of their customer became the first company to move book retailing from the shopping malls and other bricks and mortar situations to the online environment. (Mellahi & Johnson, 2000) First to market is not to be downplayed, but according to Mellahi and Johnson, this is not the only area where Amazon has made e-commerce history, to wit: Amazon is a highly recognized brand name, and companies will literally spend millions upon millions of dollars to acquire brand recognition. Amazon is customer centric, which means that the experience the customer has while online at Amazon.com is of utmost importance. The database of Amazon is of such sophistication that it forecasting models are much more accurate than others in the industry with its rate of return being under one fourth of one percent while industry average is thirty percent. (Mellahi & Johnson, 2000) Along with the internal history making, Amazon also made history of the external kind when in 1998 plans were outlined for seven new distribution centers strategically placed throughout the United States. These centers covered almost 3 million square feet of inventory storage capacity. The New York Times called this the fastest expansion of distribution capacity in peacetime history. (Louie & Rayport, 2001) This plant expansion brought their total square footage worldwide to 5 million square feet. Table 2 Distribution Centers LocationSquare FootageSeattle Washington 93,000Campbellsville, Kentucky 770,000Coffeyville, Kansas 750,000Fernley, Nevada 332,650Grand Forks, North Dakota 130,000McDonough, Georgia 800,000New Castle, Delaware 202,000Total U.S. Distribution2,984,650(Louie & Rayport, 2001) Finally, the attention is turned to sales, Amazon continued its record breaking run with tremendous increases in sales on an annual basis. Table 3 Total Annual Sales Amazon.com YEARTOTAL SALES1995$ 511,000.001996$ 15,746,000.001997$ 147,787,000.001998$ 609,819,000.001999$1,639,839,000.002000$2,761,983,000.002001$3,122,433,000.00(Amazon.com, Annual Report 1999 - 2001) Keeping pace with distribution center expansion and sales growth, the size of the Amazon.com work force has grown dramatically as well. From approximately 250 employees when the company went public, two years later Amazon boasted over 7000 employees. (Powers & Phair, 2000 ) By the end of the year 2001 the employment base stood at 7,600 after adjustments for seasonal layoffs. (Kanter, 2001) Jeff Bezos has taken the vision and courage and created Amazon.com, he has made history. From Man of the Year in 1999 to huge growth in the terms of customers, sales, and employees, Amazon.com has created the aura of success, of being visionary, but is it what they will be known for in the future? Famous or Infamous In his critically acclaimed work, Origin of Species, in 1859, Charles Darwin stated: To my imagination it is far more satisfactory to look at well-adapted species not as specially endowed or created instincts, but as small consequences of one general law leading to the advancement of all organic beings. (Collins & Porras, 1997) With this concept, along with previously discussed issues of building different frameworks of data delivery and that the Internet is about people, Amazon is famous with its customer centric objectivity. In terms of an industry that is beset with competition from traditional book jobbers (Rogers, 2001), and a marketplace albeit an online one, that is intensely and savagely competitive, Amazon, according to Fortune magazine continues to demonstrate that no company has done more to show how the Internet overturns conventional assumptions. (Mellahi & Johnson, 2000) From Darwins standpoint, he would term Amazon and the leadership supplied by Jeff Bezos to be satisfactory. practices the concept of zero time, which means that within minutes of an order being placed, it is confirmed by email. As soon as the product has been shipped another email is created and sent. This is done in this fashion because Amazon feels that the customer want to know. (Shulman, 2000) Stealing a few words from Darwin, this is a small consequence of one general law leading to the advancement of all organic beings. In technology terms, this is an basic process by Amazon that leads to a more customer centric position by the company. In just a few years, as is evidenced by the sales growth demonstrated by table 3 on page 8, Amazon due to its success created a network of partners. These partnerships are deemed to be essential, but are also risky business. (Kanter, 2001) Author Rosabeth Moss Kanter continues her topic on partnering when she states that successful partnering requires a shift of perspective from the individual company to the community. Expansion was happening so fast, is it possible that Amazon.com got caught in the moment? Is it possible that being first, and wanting to get big fast, and having Big Hairy Audacious Goals got in the way of sound business decisions on the part of Amazon? (Kanter, 2001) Kanter applies her 8 Is that make a We process to Amazon, and found that there were some shortfalls that did cause problems for Amazon, to some degree, making them the infamous Amazon.com. Figure 1 The 8 Is that Make a We  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  Through these eight Is, it has been determined that Amazon was short sighted in some dealings, they were using the golden traffic rule as defined by Lycos EVP Ron Sege, that being, He who has the traffic sets the rules. (Kanter, 2001) A great deal of sales growth has been attributed to the partnership building that Amazon.com completed by taking equity interests in several other companies. With these purchases, Amazon has been able to provide a much wider array of products for their customer base. (Louie & Rayport, 2001) With these purchases, came a great deal more inherent risk by Amazon. Many companies were attracted to the high volume of visits, and the increased number of customers that Amazon.com exhibited. Not all of these companies exhibited all of the Is that Rosabeth Kanter wrote about. Table 4 on page 12 lists the partnerships entered into by Amazon.com from 1997 1999. Where possible, what ultimately happened to the company has been listed as well. The dot bomb of late 1999 and early 2000 had a huge impact on the partnerships of Amazon.com. Table 4 Amazon.com Key Strategic Partnerships CompanyDescriptionRelationshipAshford.comLuxury and premium productsAudibleInternet-delivered audioDella.comGift registryRelationship severedDrugstore.comPharmacy and online OTCGear.comSporting goodsGreenlight.comAutomobilesCarsdirect.comHomeGrocer.comGrocery shoppingOut of BusinessKozmo.comDelivery serviceRelationship severedLiving.comHome products & servicesOut of BusinessNextCard.comCredit cardsPart of AmazonPets.comPet products Out of BusinessSothebysAuction house(Louie & Rayport, 2001) There have been additional partnerships formed since 1999, but it is important to point out that based on data from the 2000 Annual Report and 10-K Statement that Amazon.com recorded a $305 million dollar equity loss in portions of other companies owned.(Amazon.com, 2000 Annual Report and 10-K Statement) It is pointed out that through equity ownerships such as 28% ownership in Drugstore.com, and 17% ownership in Ashford.com, Amaozon.com in an effect is operating as a bricks and mortar mall, and that the ownership represents a form of rent being paid to the mall owner. (Hendershott, Hendershott, & Hendershott, 2001) While the virtual mall seems a good idea, it is also constricting to competition, and is counter productive to profitability and stockholder values due to the fact that Amazon.com invested heavily in these partners, and lost heavily. (Regan, 2001) Reactions by Investors Quoting from the 1999 annual report, Jeff Bezos stated the following: At a recent event at the Stanford University campus, a young woman came to the microphone and asked me a great question: "I have 100 shares of Amazon.com. What do I own?" (Amazon.com, 1999 Annual Report) Not long after that, while Internet stocks were in a free fall, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan stated that the Internet had changed the economy in ways that even he did not fully understand. (Lewis, 2001) Investors not knowing what they owned, and a Federal Reserve Chairman not understanding what the Internet was doing to the economy, no wonder that Wall street reacted as if the sky were falling for most dotcoms. (Bernard, 2000) Many financial strategists and observers say that this was a much needed reality check. Amazon.coms stock lost more than 80% of its value over the last six month of 1999 and the first 6 months of 2000. Jeff Bezos says better days are ahead, as he points to the many companies that did not survive the economic downturn. These companies included Amazon.com partners Pets.com and Living.com. (Regan, 2001) There is a great deal more than stockholder uncertainty and a lack of understanding that has driven stock prices lower for Amazon.com. Table 5 demonstrates the volatility of the stock over the years 1999 and 2000 Table 5 Stock price Comparisons High Low ------- ------ Year ended December 31, 1999 First Quarter.................................. $ 99.56 $42.13 Second Quarter................................. 110.63 44.88 Third Quarter.................................. 85.00 41.00 Fourth Quarter................................. 113.00 61.00 Year ended December 31, 2000 First Quarter.................................. $ 91.50 $58.44 Second Quarter................................. 68.63 32.47 Third Quarter.................................. 49.63 27.88 Fourth Quarter................................. 40.88 14.88 (Amazon.com, Schedule 10-K 2000) The above table demonstrates the negative reaction that investors took regarding Amazon.com. From a high of $113.00 per share in the early part of the fourth quarter of 1999 to a low of less than $15.00 per share during the fourth quarter of 2000. The stock price did sink lower during the first quarter of 2001, hitting a low of under $7.00 per share. Enter the P for Profit The 1999 expansion of distribution centers was completed to aid in the goal toward profitability, specifically, Bezos and his management team deemed that expanding and controlling the distribution function internally would through efficiencies, higher margins, demand management and order stratification have a positive impact on the bottom line. (Tapscott, & Ticoll, & Lowy, 2000) Table 6 is offered as proof of the impact of this and other management decisions acted upon to increase the bottom line. Table 6 Amazon.com Annual Net Losses YEARProfit or(Loss) % of Total Sales1995($ 303,000)59.3%1996($ 6,246,000)39.7%1997($ 31,020,000)20.9%1998($ 124,546,000)20.4%1999($ 719,968,000)43.9%2000($1,411,273,000)51.1%2001($ 567,277,000)18.2%(Amazon.com, Annual Report 2001) During the time that Amazon.com has been a publicly held company with stock traded on the NASDAQ, the total operating loses have amounted to more than $2.8 Billion Dollars. Total sales during this same time frame has amounted in excess of $8 Billion Dollars. The average loss as a percentage of sales is 34.47%. This is inflated due to two decisions that Amazon.com executives have made, and these decisions have already been discussed. One being the expansion of distribution centers, and the other being the partnership building that has taken place, quite evidently without Kanters 8 Is that make a We. (Kanter, 2001) Coupling these two decisions with a stock market that seemingly soured on all technology stock, Amazon.com had tremendous losses and tremendous losses as a percent of sales in both 1999 and 2000. True to his leadership traits, Jeff Bezos sent a letter to shareholders telling them that better days are ahead for Amazon.com and for the investor. The long range outlook is for e-commerce to continue growing, from the $15 Billion dollars of retail projected in 2001, to the $60 Billion projected in 2002. Overall, Bezos views the Internet grasping 15% of all retail sales. (Regan, 2001) Many experts see the crash that began in late fall of 1999, and continued into the second quarter of 2000 as a needed shakeout of dotcom companies. It was the death knell for many dotcom companies, but not for dotcom in general. (Rubin, 2000) While this may seem to be an anomaly, Amir Hartman, writing with John Sifonis and John Kador refer to this as the E-Business Matrix. (Hartman, & Sifonis, & Kador, 2000) Discussed in the book, Net Ready, the matrix takes on the shape of figure 2 below. Figure 2 The E-Business Value Matrix  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT   (Hartman, & Sifonis, & Kador, 2000) The contention is this; each E-Business has two dimensions, business criticality and practice innovation (newness). Each E-Business will pass through each quadrant as it develops, in a counter clockwise rotation beginning in the New Fundamentals quadrant where both dimensions are low. In other words, business criticality and practice innovation are not under a great deal of pressure when the quadrant is in the lower right-hand corner. When the company reaches the operational excellence quadrant, it is a mature company, having very high rewards for success, and likewise very high risks of failure. (Hartman, & Sifonis, & Kador, 2000) Amazon.com, along with many other key players in Internet and e-commerce have done extremely well moving from the first to the third quadrant, but the move from being a breakthrough strategy to operational excellence is very difficult. Jeff Bezos talks of improvements in disk space, of processing power, and of bandwidth when he talks about the future growth of Amazon.com. He does not talk about the P word.(Regan, 2001) The Changing Effect on Jeff Bezos Over two thousand years ago, Roman author Seneca the elder wrote that If we toil awhile, endure awhile, believe always and never turn back then the conditions for conquest are always easy. Just as it has been easy for Amazon.com and Jeff Bezos to traverse through the first three quadrants of the E-Business matrix. It is the fourth quadrant, the one that signals transformation for the company, where supply and demand improvements are emphasized, where the level of risk starts to move toward medium from the earlier acceptable high levels, and where a company must move management toward a sustainable competitive advantage. (Hartman, & Sifonis, & Kador, 2000) Malcolm Wheatley of CIO Magazine had the opportunity to interview Jeff Bezos in late summer of 2000. Stock prices had bottomed out, and the dust was starting to clear from the dot bomb. Bezos stated that he and his executives remain focused on winning customers one at a time. (Wheatley, 2000) Bezos remains unruffled over the NASDAQ tech slide of stock prices, stating he does not think that customers are worried, and he looks at the tight venture capital market with regard to new dotcom companies and sees a silver lining, If our stock has to suffer so that some companies cant get funding, thats probably good for us. (Wheatley, 2000) In mid 2001, many observers were calling for Jeff Bezos to resign as CEO, that the only way to revive the companys stock price was for his departure. (Tice, 2001) Of course, this did not happen, Amazon.com stock has recovered somewhat, with pricing in the $22.00 to $25.00 per share range. The operating loss from 2000 to 2001 was cut almost 60%, while sales increased by over 13%. The sales increase was not nearly as large as past years, but was deemed by management to be a very positive trend nonetheless. (Amazon.com, Annual Report 2001) Upon researching the difference between leadership and management, it is certainly possible that Jeff Bezos may not have the all of the management skills necessary to lead Amazon.com al the way back. He is a big picture guy. Not a great deal has changed for Jeff Bezos, he still enjoys his work, enjoys the challenges, puts in his 16 hour days, and is still considered a brilliant person. (Tice, 2001) Jerald Greenberg states that the primary function of a leader is to create the essential purpose or mission of the organization and the strategy for attaining it. By contrast, the job of management is to implement the vision. (Greenberg, 2002) This compares quite similarly to the comments of author Robert Spector when he stated that, it is very hard for a founder and big-picture guy to then become CEO and take the company to the next level. (Tice, 2001) Better Days Ahead For the first time since Amazon.com went public, The end of the quarter, December 31, 2001 brought profitability to the company. (Amazon.com, Annual Statement, 2001) Couple this with the fact that the nine months of operation during calendar year 2002 has resulted in an operating loss of $151.7 Million dollars compared to the same time frame of 2001 being $572.4 Million dollars, which is an operating loss decrease of more than 73%. (Amazon.com, Schedule 10-Q September 30, 2002) When questioned in mid July of 2002 by Patricia OConnell of Businessweek Online, Jeff Bezos feels that innovation is still alive and well, with all of the scandals, and bankruptcies, and the money lost in the stock market, that there is a great deal to feel good about. (OConnell, 2002) Amazon.com has crept back slowly during the past twelve months, there is reason for cautious optimism within the ranks of Amazon. The 4th quarter of 2002 is deemed to be extremely important in acting as a barometer as to whether Amazon.com has turned the corner toward profitability. (OConnell, 2002) Conclusion Albert Einstein cherished thought provoking situations. Of them he states, Imagination is more important than knowledge. Continuing with this diatribe, To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science. (Morgan, 1997) Bezos new question that he raised in 1994 was how to utilize the environment called the Internet by incorporating retail selling to online users, his new possibility according to Einstein. In 1993 when Gareth Morgan first began penning his book, Imaginization, he wrote about the fact that there was no shortage of advice for people and their organizations relative to becoming successful. This was prior to Jeff Bezos and Amazon.com. His words have no less importance or empowerment to Amazon.com and to Jeff Bezos, regardless as to when the following messages were first uttered. Become flexible Adapt Self-organize Thrive in Chaos Develop a learning organization Become more creative Be market driven Foster entrepreneurship Empower your staff Decentralize (Morgan, 1997) The ten characteristics listed above speak volumes about the growing pains of an Internet icon, as it continues to search for the highs of pre 1999 with a new focus on the same vision that Jeff Bezos had when he created it in 1995: Work Hard, Have Fun, Make History. References Collins, J., & Porras, J., (1997). Built To Last. New York: HarperCollins Publishers ISBN:0887307396 Greenberg, J., (2002). Managing behavior in organizations. New Jersey: Pearson Education Inc ISBN:0130328243 Morgan, G., (1989). Creative Organization Theory. California: SAGE Publications ISBN: 0803934440 Morgan, G., (1997). Images of Organizations. California: SAGE Publications ISBN: 0761906312 Morgan, G., (1997). Imaginization. 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