ࡱ> ?B>g 5+bjbjhh .,|\|\ xx !!!!48!!&L!L!L!L!L!;";";"%%%%%%%$(H+&E ;";";";";"& L!L!^&;%;%;%;" L! L!%;%;"%;%;%;%L!xYq#;%%t&0&;%\,$\,;%\, ;%;";";%;";";";";"&&;%;";";"&;";";";"\,;";";";";";";";";"x> : STAT 520  Homework 3  Fall 2019 1) Consider the MA(2) process, where all the {et} values are independent white noise with variance s2e: Yt = et  0.5 et  1  0.3 et  2 a) Find cov(Yt, Yt) = var(Yt). b) Find cov(Yt, Yt  1) and, from this, find the lag-1 autocorrelation corr(Yt, Yt  1). c) Find cov(Yt, Yt  2) and, from this, find the lag-2 autocorrelation corr(Yt, Yt  2). d) Argue that cov(Yt, Yt  k) = 0 for all k e" 3. 2) [Mandatory for graduate students, extra credit for undergraduates] Repeat all parts of Problem 1, but for the process: Yt = et  1.2 et  1 + 0.7 et  2 3) Consider the AR(1) process: Yt = fYt  1 + et Show that if |f| = 1, the process cannot be stationary. [Hint: Take variances of both sides.] 4) The monthly U.S. air passenger miles flown for January 1960 to December 1971 are in the airpass object in the TSA package. Type library(TSA); data(airpass); print(airpass) in R to see the data set. (a) Plot the time series, using plotting symbols that allow you to check for seasonality. What basic pattern do you see from the plot? (b) Plot the (natural) log-transformed time series. What basic pattern do you see from the plot? What effect has the log transformation had? (c) Plot the differences of the natural logarithms. Does this plot suggest that a stationary model might be appropriate for the differences of the natural logarithms? Briefly explain. (d) Plot the fractional relative differences, (Yt Yt 1)/Yt 1, which can be obtained in R with the code: diff(airpass)/(zlag(airpass)[-1]) How do these values compare with the differences of the natural logarithms from part (c)? 5) The daily price of gold over 252 trading days in 2005 are in the gold object in the TSA package. Type library(TSA); data(gold); print(gold) in R to see the data set. (a) Plot the time series. What basic pattern do you see from the plot? (b) Plot the time series of the differences of the (natural) logarithms of these data. Does this plot suggest that a stationary model might be appropriate for the differences of the natural logarithms? Briefly explain. (c) Plot the sample ACF for the differences of the logarithms of these data. Does this provide evidence that the log-transformed gold prices follow a random walk model? Why or why not? 6) A data set of 57 consecutive measurements from a machine tool are in the deere3 object in the TSA package. Type library(TSA); data(deere3); print(deere3) in R to see the data set. (a) Plot the time series. What basic pattern do you see from the plot? Might a stationary model be appropriate for this plot? (b) Using tools such as the ACF, PACF, and/or EACF, tentatively specify the type of model (AR, MA, or ARMA) as well as the order(s) of the model. 7) *BDN        " $ & ( , 2 4 6 8 @ F L ƺҲ҇{od{odY{oPHh9'OJQJh}QH*OJQJh}Qh}QOJQJh`YDh}QOJQJh`YDh}QH*OJQJh`YDh}Q6OJQJhiOJQJh<}h<}H*OJQJh<}h<}H*OJQJh<}h<}OJQJh<}OJQJh}Qh}QH*OJQJh}Qh}Q6OJQJh}QOJQJh`YDh#OJQJh`YDhUa9OJQJhOJQJhVOJQJDF \ L ` b V 4| fggdgd'Hgdczfgd}QgdV$a$gd1L N P R Z \ t v x | ~ 2 4 6 : < > F d f h l n p x " $ & * , . 6 R T ` b h V X Z ` b d f j ǿۿۿۿۿҿۿҿۿҿۿҿۿҿ󿷿۠۠h`YDh}QOJQJh3h}Q5OJQJhOJQJh}QOJQJh}Qh}QOJQJh}QH*OJQJh`YDh}QH*OJQJh`YDh}Q6OJQJh}Qh}Q6OJQJ?j p r t v ~   ˸tkbtZhOJQJh9'H*OJQJh9'6OJQJh9'h9'OJQJh`YDh9'OJQJh`YDh9'H*OJQJh`YDh9'6OJQJh`YDh#OJQJh`YDhOJQJh}Qh}QOJQJh}QOJQJh}QH*OJQJh`YDh}QH*OJQJh`YDh}Q6OJQJh}Qh}Q6OJQJh9'OJQJ /0;BQTdw~8@Zj{夘小变~hOJQJh'HH*OJQJh'H6OJQJh`YDh'HH*OJQJh`YDh'H6OJQJh`YDh'HOJQJh`YDhXOJQJh`YDhczfOJQJ^Jh'HOJQJ^Jh8OJQJh'HOJQJh`YDhczfOJQJh3OJQJ,   efghnqt+._6;3?ETWgzƾٳٳٳwjjwjh`YDh&kOJQJ^Jh&kOJQJ^Jh`YDh&kOJQJh&kOJQJh$\OJQJh`YDhOJQJ^Jh'HOJQJ^Jh`YDhOJQJh3OJQJh`YDhOJQJhOJQJh'HOJQJh'HCJOJQJ^JaJ h'Hh'HCJOJQJ^JaJ)[7-(8))*3+4+5+gd&kgd3gd,1(B(M(R(a(d(t(((((((((7)<)*7***2+3+4+5+޵h`YDhHOJQJh`YDhczfOJQJh&kh&k5OJQJh1OJQJUh&kOJQJh`YDh&kOJQJh`YDh&kOJQJ^Jh&kOJQJ^J$A data set of 324 measurements of an industrial robots positions are in the robot object in the TSA package. Type library(TSA); data(robot); print(robot) in R to see the data set. (a) Plot the time series. What basic pattern do you see from the plot? Might a stationary model be appropriate for this plot? (b) Using tools such as the ACF, PACF, and/or EACF, tentatively specify the type of model (AR, MA, or ARMA) as well as the order(s) of the model. (c) Use the best subsets ARMA approach to specify a model. Consider up to 8 AR terms and up to 8 MA terms. Does the best subset ARMA model agree with the model you specified in part (b)? (d) Repeat parts (a)-(c) on the first differences of the robot time series. Does this analysis suggest a particular model for the original robot data? 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