ࡱ> o lbjbj zfzfxd$CCCP\<C5b^++:eee'''aaaaaaa$dIga'''''aeef aE*E*E*'FeeaE*'aE*E**:;e@Z5(^:ab05b:go(g(;;ngL<T%''E*'''''aaE)'''5b''''g''''''''' : Profile of the Economy [Source: Office of Macroeconomic Analysis] As of May 28, 2020 Introduction At the beginning of 2020, the U.S. economy was in the midst of the longest recovery in American history. Yet towards the latter part of the first quarter, the U.S. experienced an exogenous shock from the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the extraordinary measures taken to respond on several fronts. The policies implemented to protect public health, which include social distancing requirements and mandated business closures, have reduced the spread of the virus but have also triggered a sudden, sharp decline in economic activity: according to the second estimate, real GDP declined by 5.0 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, after three consecutive quarters of growth in the range of 2.0 to 2.1 percent. Prior to the pandemic, the U.S. economy was performing very well. Data releases portrayed a still-expanding economy, and private forecasters expected GDP growth around 2percent for the next few years. During the first two months of 2020, the economy generated 233,000 payroll jobs per month on average, significantly above the average monthly paces in the previous two years and well above estimates of the job growth needed to maintain a historically low unemployment rate. The economys strength early in the year was also evident in rising household incomes and healthy balance sheets, solid personal consumption, measures of consumer mood approaching the multi-years peaks achieved in 2018, and a marked recovery in the housing sector. Most recently, however, economic growth has turned sharply negative, deflationary pressures have emerged, business and consumer sentiment have deteriorated markedly, and the unemployment rate has risen to 14.7 percent, the highest in the post-WWII period when the federal government started publishing this indicator. As of early May, private forecasters predicted real GDP to decline 5.9percent on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2020 but to rebound 4.9 percent in 2021. During the pandemic, the United States has responded swiftly and decisively to mitigate its effects on individuals and the economy, implementing expansionary fiscal as well as monetary policies. The Administrations response includes an unprecedented level of fiscal stimulus of roughly $2.7 trillion. A major feature of the response, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), helps small businesses keep their workers on payroll and will protect up to 60 million to 65 million jobs, or about 45 to 50percent of private-sector jobs before the pandemic. Growth of Real GDP (Quarterly percent change at annual rate)  Economic Growth The U.S. expansion marked a record 128 months as of February 2020, but the economy contracted sharply in the latter half of March, largely due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Real GDP dropped 5.0 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, reflecting steep pullbacks in personal consumption as well as business investment. The first quarter decline followed growth of 2.1 percent in real GDP in the fourth quarter. Private domestic final purchases the sum of personal consumption, business fixed investment, and residential investment fell 5.9 percent in the first quarter as lower consumption and business investment outweighed growth in residential investment; this measure of demand rose by 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Stay-at-home orders, which forced many brick-and-mortar stores to close, were implemented in mid-March, severely dampening purchases of services and durable goods. Real consumer spending dropped 6.8 percent in the first quarter, after growing by 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Purchases of durable goods, a category that includes motor vehicles, declined 13.2 percent in the first quarter, swinging sharply from the 2.8 percent gain in the previous quarter. Expenditures on services fell 9.7 percent, reflecting significantly reduced demand for travel and lodging, cinemas, theaters, concerts, bars, and restaurants as well as the postponement of non-critical health procedures until after the pandemic. Expenditures on services had added 1.1percentage points to GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but in the first quarter, this component alone posed a drag of 4.8 percentage points. Despite double-digit declines in purchases of both services and durable goods, consumption of non-durable goods grew by 7.7 percent in the first quarter a notable reversal from the 0.6 percent decline in the fourth quarter and partially a product of the switch from restaurant meals to purchases of food and beverages for off-premises consumption. On balance, real personal consumption expenditures in Q1 subtracted 4.7 percentage points from growth, posing the largest drag of any GDP component, after adding 1.2 percentage points to growth in the fourth quarter. Total business fixed investment has constrained GDP growth in each of the past four quarters. In the first quarter of this year, business investment was down 7.9 percent at an annual rate, after declining 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Equipment investment plunged 16.7 percent, partly reflecting less investment in transportation equipment as Boeing halted production of the 737MAX in January and extending the fourth quarters 4.3 percent decline. Spending on structures was down 3.9 percent, reflecting a pullback in manufacturing plants and commercial and health care buildings, after falling 7.2 percent in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, growth of expenditures on intellectual property products, an important ingredient for innovation and future economic growth, increased 1.0 percent, after rising 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Overall, business fixed investment subtracted 1.1 percentage points from real GDP growth in the first quarter. The change in private inventories, a volatile component, subtracted 1.4 percentage point from economic growth in the first quarter, after subtracting 1.0 percentage points in the final quarter of 2019. The improvement in residential investment activity during the latter half of 2019 paved the way for a strong burst of activity in the first quarter, despite a significant pull-back in March. Residential investment surged 18.5 percent in the first quarter, extending gains of 4.6 percent and 6.5 percent in last years third and fourth quarters, respectively. This component added 0.7 percentage point to GDP in the first quarter, its largest contribution to growth since the second quarter of 2004. However, the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic began to weigh heavily on the housing sector in March, and again in April. Existing home sales, which account for 90 percent of all home sales and rose to a 13-year high in February, declined 8.5 percent in March and a further 17.8 percent in April. As a result, existing home sales were 17.2 percent lower in April relative to their level a year ago. New single-family home sales rose to a 12-year high in January, then declined 7.4 percent in February and 13.7 percent in March. In April, however, new single-family home sales surprised on the upside, rising 0.6 percent but were still 6.2 percent lower relative to a year ago. Total housing starts, as well as total permits, dropped sharply in March and even more precipitously in April; in the latter month, starts fell 30.2 percent while permits were down 21.4 percent, respectively. Although the National Association of Home Builders home builder confidence index reached its highest level in about twenty years as of December 2019, this index had declined by April to its lowest level in almost eight years. As of May, the index was 7 points higher at 37 but continued to suggest poor conditions in the homebuilding sector. Housing affordability has stabilized, as home price growth remains relatively subdued and mortgage rates have declined; however, house price growth is still exceeding income growth, and the downturn in labor markets may constrain housing demand. Average rates for 30-year mortgages are now at historically low levels and about 150 basis points below in the most recent peak mid-November 2018. Government spending increased 0.8percent in the first quarter, following growth of 2.5 percent in the previous quarter. State and local outlays edged up 0.2 percent while federal spending rose 1.8 percent. However, the contribution from federal government consumption and investment does not reflect the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The CARES Act was passed at the end of March, but money is being disbursed in the second quarter. Overall, government spending added roughly 0.1 percentage point to growth in the first quarter, after contributing 0.4 percentage point in the fourth quarter. The net export deficit declined $84.7 billion during the first quarter to $816.0 billion, as exports declined by 8.7 percent and imports plunged by 15.5 percent. The narrowing of the trade deficit added 1.3 percentage points to Q1 GDP growth, after contributing 1.5percentage points to economic growth in Q4. Labor Markets and Wages Between September 2019 and February 2020, the unemployment rate remained at or near a half-century low, despite labor force participation rates rising to multi-year highs. In March 2020 however, as individuals and businesses began to comply with social distancing and other requirements in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent from Februarys half-century low of 3.5percent. In April 2020, as the effects of these measures took hold more extensively, the unemployment rate jumped more than 10 percentage points to 14.7 percent, the highest in the post-WWII period when the federal government started publishing this indicator. In January and February, the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR) stood at 63.4 percent, its highest level since June 2013, and in January the prime-age LFPR increased to 83.1 percent, its highest level since September 2008. As of April 2020, however, both measures had declined markedly, to 60.2 percent and 79.9 percent, the lowest levels since January 1973 and May 1983, respectively. Broader measures of unemployment have also pulled back from record or multi-year lows. The most comprehensive measure of labor market slack, the U-6 unemployment rate, which includes those marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time for economic reasons, declined to a series low of 6.7 percent in December 2019 but as of April 2020, had jumped 14.1 percentage points to 22.8 percent, a record high. During the first two months of 2020, the economy generated 233,000 payroll jobs on average per month, accelerating noticeably from the monthly averages in 2018 and 2019 of 193,000 and 178,000, respectively. The economys sudden turn, however, resulted in a loss of 881,000 jobs in March 2020, and a further loss of 20.5 million jobs in April. For more than 1 years, rapid wage gains (of 3.0 percent or above) have been a consistent feature of the economy. More recently, the escalation in nominal wage gains has reflected higher job losses among lower wage workers, which has boosted the average earnings of remaining workers. Over the 12 months through April, nominal wages for private sector production and non-supervisory workers grew 7.7 percent, well above the 3.5 percent pace a year earlier. Using the CPIW to deflate the nominal rate, real average hourly earnings for private production and nonsupervisory workers jumped 7.6 percent over the year through April, increasing sharply from the 1.5 percent advance over the previous 12-month period. Payroll Employment (Average monthly change in thousands)  Unemployment Rate (Percent)  Nonfarm Productivity of Labor For the thirteen quarters through 2019 Q4, four-quarter nonfarm labor productivity growth rates remained above 1 percent, a consistency not seen since 2004. However, the sudden collapse in output in March 2020 reduced productivity growth in the first quarter dramatically. Over the four quarters through 2020 Q1, productivity growth rose by 0.3 percent the first year-over-year reading below 1 percent since 2016 Q3. On a quarterly basis, productivity declined 2.5 percent at an annual rate in 2020 Q1, as a 6.2 percent drop in output offset a 3.8 percent decline in worker hours. The decline followed productivity growth of 1.2 percent in the final quarter of 2019. Nominal hourly compensation costs in the nonfarm business sector rose 2.2 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, slightly faster than the fourth quarters 2.1 percent pace. Over the most recent four quarters, hourly compensation costs rose 1.7 percent, 2 percentage points less than the year-earlier pace. Unit labor costs, defined as the average cost of labor per unit of output, grew 4.8 percent in the first quarter, after rising by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter. These costs were up 1.5 percent over the most recent four quarters, roughly in line with the 1.6 percent, year-earlier advance. Another measure, the Employment Cost Index (ECI), provides perspective on growth of the main components of compensation. Private wages and salaries growth accelerated to 3.3 percent over the year through March 2020, up from the 3.0percent advance of a year earlier. This measure has held at or above 3.0 for the past seven quarters, a trend not seen since late 2006 and early 2007. Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Services Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related social distancing and stay-at-home orders, measures of industrial production, manufacturing, and services output began declining in March and fell further in April. Industrial output at factories, mines, and utilities plunged 11.2 percent in April, the largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index. This followed a 4.5 percent drop in March. Over the 12 months ending in April, output was down 15.0 percent. Manufacturing production, which accounts for about 75 percent of all industrial output, declined 13.7 percent in April, the largest drop on record for this series, following a 5.5 percent decline in March. Although the decline in factory output was broad-based, April was noteworthy for a 71.7 percent decline in the production of motor vehicles and parts, reflecting the shuttering of several automotive plants. Auto output is currently about 20 percent of pre-COVID 19 levels. Manufacturing output was down 18.0 percent over the 12 months through April. Excluding motor vehicles and parts and high-technology industries, manufacturing was down 10.5 percent in April, following a 3.6 percent decline in March, and this measure was 13.7 percent lower over the 12 months through April. Output at mines, which includes crude oil and natural gas extraction and accounts for 15 percent of industrial output, fell 6.1 percent in April, following a 1.1 percent decline in March. Over the 12 months through April, mining output declined 7.5 percent. Utilities output, the remaining 10 percent of total industrial output, was down 0.9 percent in April, following a 1.9 percent decline in March. Weather is usually a factor contributing to swings in this sector; unseasonable weather in months often causes sharp swings in output from one period to the next. Over the 12 months through April, utilities production decreased 3.8 percent. Other measures of manufacturing and services production in the economy have also declined noticeably. The Institute of Supply Managements (ISM) manufacturing index has been below, or marginally above, the 50-point growth threshold since August 2019, constituting the first multi-month contraction signal for the manufacturing sector since early 2016. In April 2020, this index dropped further below the growth threshold to 41.5, an eleven-year low. In the service sector, the ISMs non-manufacturing index has remained consistently above the growth threshold since February 2010, but dropped sharply in April to 41.8, its lowest level since March 2009. Prices Deflationary pressures emerged in March, partly reflecting the preventative measures implemented to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Although in late 2019 and early 2020 headline consumer price inflation started to pick up, aggregate demand and prices weakened suddenly and sharply at the end of Q1. On a monthly basis, both headline and core (which excludes food and energy) inflation readings declined in both March and April. Over the 12 months through April 2020, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items was up only 0.3 percent, slowing considerably from the 2.0 percent, year-earlier rate. Demand for energy dropped sharply, and energy prices plunged further after a production-cut agreement among major oil producing economies lapsed. Over the year through April 2020, energy prices plunged 17.7 percent, compared with a 1.7 percent, year-earlier advance. Food price inflation has accelerated, however, as consumers switched from restaurants to eat-at-home meals. Food price inflation accelerated to 3.5 percent over the year through April, much faster than the 1.8 percent pace over the 12 months through April 2019. Meanwhile, core inflation rose 1.4 percent over the 12 months through April, well below the 2.1 percent pace over the year through April 2019. Another measure of inflation is growth in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the preferred measure for the FOMCs 2 percent inflation target. Inflation as measured by the headline PCEPI has held below the FOMCs target since November 2018. Growth in the headline PCEPI slowed to 1.3 percent over the 12 months through March 2020, marginally slower than the 1.4 percent growth over the year through March 2019. Core PCEPI was 1.7 percent over the year through March 2020, a bit above the 1.5 percent rate over the year-earlier period. Only house prices have bucked the recent trend of slower year-over-year inflation. FHFA price growth accelerated to a 5.9 percent pace over the twelve months through March from a 5.3 percent gain over the previous year. On a 12-month basis, the Standard and Poors (S&P)/Case-Shiller composite 20-city home price index rose 3.9 percent over the year through March, well up from the 2.5 percent advance over the 12 months through March 2019. Consumer and Business Sentiment Through much of the first quarter, measures of consumer and business sentiment had been improving, but they began pulling back in March as social distancing and business closures took effect. Over two months, consumer confidence measures dropped sharply. In February, the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index was 101.0, just 0.4-point shy of the 14-year high reached in 2018. By April, it had fallen 29.2points, although it stabilized in early May at about 27 points below its level in February. Meanwhile, The Conference Boards consumer confidence index plunged by 46.9 points from February to 85.7 in April, falling to its lowest level since mid-2014. The confidence index also stabilized in May and ticked up 0.9point as households future expectations increased. On the business side, the National Federation of Independent Businesss (NFIB) small business optimism index in February was only 4.3 points below its all-time high reached in August 2018. Over March and April, however, the index had fallen a total of 13.6 points to 90.9, its lowest level since March 2013. Consumer Prices (Percent change from a year earlier)  Federal Budget and Debt The Federal Government posted a deficit of $984 billion (4.6 percent of GDP) in FY2019, rising from $779 billion (3.8 percent of GDP) in FY 2018. The primary deficit (which excludes net interest payments) was 2.9 percent of GDP in FY 2019, up 0.7 percentage point from FY 2018. Federal receipts totaled $3.46 trillion (16.3 percent of GDP) in FY 2019. Although the level of receipts was $133billion higher than last year, receipts share of the economy declined from 16.4 percent of GDP in FY 2018. Net outlays for FY 2019 were $4.45 trillion (21.0 percent of GDP), up from 20.3 percent of GDP in FY 2018. Federal debt held by the public, or federal debt less the debt held in government accounts, rose from $15.75trillion at the end of FY 2018 to $16.80 trillion by the end of FY 2019, or 79.2percent of GDP. The Administrations Budget for Fiscal Year 2021 was released in February 2020. The Administration projects the federal deficit will rise to $1.08 trillion (4.9 percent of GDP) in FY 2020. From FY 2021 to FY 2025, the deficit would total $3.71 trillion (2.9 percent of GDP, on average). The projection assumes implementation of the Administrations proposals such as increasing spending on national defense, supporting major infrastructure investment, cutting non-defense discretionary outlays, and reforming health care, drug pricing, welfare programs, student loans, and the Postal Service which would reduce the 10-year deficit relative to the baseline by $5.21trillion. On net, these proposals would gradually reduce the deficit to $261 billion (0.7 percent of GDP) by FY 2030. The Budget expects that the primary deficit (which excludes net interest outlays) will be 3.2 percent of GDP in FY 2020, which will turn into a small primary surplus by FY 2026. Debt held by the public would peak at 81.0 percent of GDP in FYs 2021 and 2022 but would gradually decline to 66.1 percent of GDP by FY 2030. The Presidents Budget assumes a lower level of discretionary spending in FY 2021 than was agreed in the Bipartisan Budget Act, lifted spending caps established in 2011 and allowed for $1.3 trillion in defense and non-defense discretionary spending over the next two fiscal years. In March and April, Congress passed several bills to help combat COVID-19 and ameliorate the economic effects of social distancing measures, worth about $2.7 trillion. These bills were passed after the Presidents Budget was presented to Congress. The Treasurys borrowing limit is suspended until July 31, 2021. At the end of April2020, gross federal debt was $24,974.2billion, while federal debt held by the public totaled $19,053.6billion. Economic Policy The U.S. government has responded to the effects of the effects of COVID -19 pandemic with a range of significantly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, including an unprecedented level of fiscal assistance and a reduction in the key policy interest rate to near-zero. On the fiscal side, roughly $2.7 trillion in financial assistance has been authorized, aid that is unprecedented in size, breadth, and speed. The Administration has disbursed funds directly to taxpayers in the form of Economic Impact Payments, and federal tax payments have been postponed until July 15. The self-employed and gig economy workers are now eligible for unemployment insurance benefits, and those who are unable to work due to the pandemic are eligible for a supplemental $600 Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefit. And less than a week after its authorization, Treasury and the Small Business Administration launched the Paycheck Protection Program, working directly with private lenders to provide forgivable loans to small businesses. As a result, small businesses can retain their workers while maintaining solvency during this crisis. On the monetary policy side, the Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has renewed its current cycle of monetary easing, which began in July 2019, but which had been paused at the turn of the year, owing to buoyant economic conditions. The Federal funds rate target was cut from a range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent down to a range of 1.5 to 2.0 percent, where it remained during the December 2019 and January 2020 meetings. In fact, in its January 28-29, 2020 accompanying statement, the Committee observed that at the time, the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the [Feds 2 percent target]. Nonetheless, in an inter-meeting move on March 3, the FOMC announced a 50 basis point cut in the target range to 1.0 to 1.25 percent, and on March 15, at another unscheduled meeting, the FOMC cut the target range by 100 basis points to 0.0 to 0.25 percent. (The scheduled, March 17-18 FOMC meeting was cancelled.) At its scheduled meeting on April 28-29, the FOMC announced it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 percent to 0.25 percent. In its accompanying statement, the Committee noted that it expects to maintain this FFR target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. The Federal Reserve has also implemented large-scale purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities and has established numerous emergency lending facilities through which it will lend up to $10 per $1 of capital provided by Treasury. To date, Treasury has committed $215 billion of capital to these lending facilities and is able to commit up to $454 billion as conditions require. This degree of fiscal and monetary policy coordination is significantly greater in scale and faster in implementation than what was deployed following the financial crisis.      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