ࡱ> hjgQ_ ߵbjbj 7jA\jA\TD D :h09999999$;>V99E: F9 9 58GP7N7r9[:0:8>;>4888>8 99 :>D > :  CHAPTER 3 Hedging Strategies Using Futures Practice Questions Problem 3.8. In the CME Groups corn futures contract, the following delivery months are available: March, May, July, September, and December. State the contract that should be used for hedging when the expiration of the hedge is in June July January A good rule of thumb is to choose a futures contract that has a delivery month as close as possible to, but later than, the month containing the expiration of the hedge. The contracts that should be used are therefore July September March Problem 3.9. Does a perfect hedge always succeed in locking in the current spot price of an asset for a future transaction? Explain your answer. No. Consider, for example, the use of a forward contract to hedge a known cash inflow in a foreign currency. The forward contract locks in the forward exchange rate, which is in general different from the spot exchange rate. Problem 3.10. Explain why a short hedgers position improves when the basis strengthens unexpectedly and worsens when the basis weakens unexpectedly. The basis is the amount by which the spot price exceeds the futures price. A short hedger is long the asset and short futures contracts. The value of his or her position therefore improves as the basis increases. Similarly it worsens as the basis decreases. Problem 3.11. Imagine you are the treasurer of a Japanese company exporting electronic equipment to the United States. Discuss how you would design a foreign exchange hedging strategy and the arguments you would use to sell the strategy to your fellow executives. The simple answer to this question is that the treasurer should Estimate the companys future cash flows in Japanese yen and U.S. dollars Enter into forward and futures contracts to lock in the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar cash flows. However, this is not the whole story. As the gold jewelry example in Table 3.1 shows, the company should examine whether the magnitudes of the foreign cash flows depend on the exchange rate. For example, will the company be able to raise the price of its product in U.S. dollars if the yen appreciates? If the company can do so, its foreign exchange exposure may be quite low. The key estimates required are those showing the overall effect on the companys profitability of changes in the exchange rate at various times in the future. Once these estimates have been produced the company can choose between using futures and options to hedge its risk. The results of the analysis should be presented carefully to other executives. It should be explained that a hedge does not ensure that profits will be higher. It means that profit will be more certain. When futures/forwards are used both the downside and upside are eliminated. With options a premium is paid to eliminate only the downside. Problem 3.12. Suppose that in Example 3.4 the company decides to use a hedge ratio of 0.8. How does the decision affect the way in which the hedge is implemented and the result? If the hedge ratio is 0.8, the company takes a long position in 16 December oil futures contracts on June 8 when the futures price is $8. It closes out its position on November 10. The spot price and futures price at this time are $65 and $62. The gain on the futures position is (62 " 58)16,000 = $64,000 The effective cost of the oil is therefore 20,00065 " 64,000 = $1,236,000 or $61.80 per barrel. (This compares with $61.00 per barrel when the company is fully hedged.) Problem 3.13.  If the minimum-variance hedge ratio is calculated as 1.0, the hedge must be perfect." Is this statement true? Explain your answer. The statement is not true. The minimum variance hedge ratio is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  It is 1.0 when  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  and  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Since  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  the hedge is clearly not perfect. Problem 3.14. If there is no basis risk, the minimum variance hedge ratio is always 1.0." Is this statement true? Explain your answer. The statement is true. Suppose for the sake of definiteness that the commodity is being purchased. If the hedge ratio is h, the gain on futures is h(F2  F1) so that the price paid is S2 " h(F2  F1) or hb2 + hF1+(1"h)S2. If there is no basis risk, b2 is known. For a given h, there is therefore no uncertainty in the first two terms. For any value of h other than 1, there is uncertainty in the third term. The minimum variance hedge ratio is therefore 1. Problem 3.15 When the futures price of an asset is less than its spot price, long hedges are likely to be particularly attractive." Explain this statement. A company that knows it will purchase a commodity in the future is able to lock in a price close to the futures price. This is likely to be particularly attractive when the futures price is less than the spot price. An illustration is provided by Example 3.2. Problem 3.16. The standard deviation of monthly changes in the spot price of live cattle is (in cents per pound) 1.2. The standard deviation of monthly changes in the futures price of live cattle for the closest contract is 1.4. The correlation between the futures price changes and the spot price changes is 0.7. It is now October 15. A beef producer is committed to purchasing 200,000 pounds of live cattle on November 15. The producer wants to use the December live-cattle futures contracts to hedge its risk. Each contract is for the delivery of 40,000 pounds of cattle. What strategy should the beef producer follow? The optimal hedge ratio is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  The beef producer requires a long position in  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  lbs of cattle. The beef producer should therefore take a long position in 3 December contracts closing out the position on November 15. Problem 3.17. A corn farmer argues I do not use futures contracts for hedging. My real risk is not the price of corn. It is that my whole crop gets wiped out by the weather.Discuss this viewpoint. Should the farmer estimate his or her expected production of corn and hedge to try to lock in a price for expected production? If weather creates a significant uncertainty about the volume of corn that will be harvested, the farmer should not enter into short forward contracts to hedge the price risk on his or her expected production. The reason is as follows. Suppose that the weather is bad and the farmers production is lower than expected. Other farmers are likely to have been affected similarly. Corn production overall will be low and as a consequence the price of corn will be relatively high. The farmers problems arising from the bad harvest will be made worse by losses on the short futures position. This problem emphasizes the importance of looking at the big picture when hedging. The farmer is correct to question whether hedging price risk while ignoring other risks is a good strategy. Problem 3.18. On July 1, an investor holds 50,000 shares of a certain stock. The market price is $30 per share. The investor is interested in hedging against movements in the market over the next month and decides to use the September Mini S&P 500 futures contract. The index is currently 1,500 and one contract is for delivery of $50 times the index. The beta of the stock is 1.3. What strategy should the investor follow? A short position in  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  contracts is required. It will be profitable if the stock outperforms the market in the sense that its return is greater than that predicted by the capital asset pricing model. Problem 3.19. Suppose that in Table 3.5 the company decides to use a hedge ratio of 1.5. How does the decision affect the way the hedge is implemented and the result? If the company uses a hedge ratio of 1.5 in Table 3.5 it would at each stage short 150 contracts. The gain from the futures contracts would be  EMBED Equation.3  per barrel and the company would be $0.85 per barrel better off. Problem 3.20. A futures contract is used for hedging. Explain why the daily settlement of the contract can give rise to cash flow problems. Suppose that you enter into a short futures contract to hedge the sale of an asset in six months. If the price of the asset rises sharply during the six months, the futures price will also rise and you may get margin calls. The margin calls will lead to cash outflows. Eventually the cash outflows will be offset by the extra amount you get when you sell the asset, but there is a mismatch in the timing of the cash outflows and inflows. Your cash outflows occur earlier than your cash inflows. A similar situation could arise if you used a long position in a futures contract to hedge the purchase of an asset and the assets price fell sharply. An extreme example of what we are talking about here is provided by Metallgesellschaft (see Business Snapshot 3.2). Problem 3.21. The expected return on the S&P 500 is 12% and the risk-free rate is 5%. What is the expected return on the investment with a beta of (a) 0.2, (b) 0.5, and (c) 1.4?  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  or 6.4%  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  or 8.5%  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  or 14.8% Further Questions Problem 3.22 It is now June. A company knows that it will sell 5,000 barrels of crude oil in September. It uses the October CME Group futures contract to hedge the price it will receive. Each contract is on 1,000 barrels of light sweet crude. What position should it take? What price risks is it still exposed to after taking the position? It should short five contracts. It has basis risk. It is exposed to the difference between the October futures price and the spot price of light sweet crude at the time it closes out its position in September. It is also possibly exposed to the difference between the spot price of light sweet crude and the spot price of the type of oil it is selling. Problem 3.23 Sixty futures contracts are used to hedge an exposure to the price of silver. Each futures contract is on 5,000 ounces of silver. At the time the hedge is closed out, the basis is $0.20 per ounce. What is the effect of the basis on the hedgers financial position if (a) the trader is hedging the purchase of silver and (b) the trader is hedging the sale of silver? The excess of the spot over the futures at the time the hedge is closed out is $0.20 per ounce. If the trader is hedging the purchase of silver, the price paid is the futures price plus the basis. The trader therefore loses 605,000$0.20=$60,000. If the trader is hedging the sales of silver, the price received is the futures price plus the basis. The trader therefore gains $60,000. Problem 3.24 A trader owns 55,000 units of a particular asset and decides to hedge the value of her position with futures contracts on another related asset. Each futures contract is on 5,000 units. The spot price of the asset that is owned is $28 and the standard deviation of the change in this price over the life of the hedge is estimated to be $0.43. The futures price of the related asset is $27 and the standard deviation of the change in this over the life of the hedge is $0.40. The coefficient of correlation between the spot price change and futures price change is 0.95. (a) What is the minimum variance hedge ratio? (b) Should the hedger take a long or short futures position? (c) What is the optimal number of futures contracts when issues associated with daily settlement are not considered? (d) How can the daily settlement of futures contracts be taken into account? The minimum variance hedge ratio is 0.950.43/0.40=1.02125. The hedger should take a short position. The optimal number of contracts when daily settlement is not considered is 1.0212555,000/5,000=11.23 (or 11 when rounded to the nearest whole number) The optimal number of contracts is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 where  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 is correlation between percentage one-day returns of spot and futures,  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 are the standard deviations of percentage one-day returns on spot and futures, VA is the value of the position and VF is the futures price times the size of one contract. In this case VA = 55,00028 = 1,540,000 and VF =5,00027=135,000. If we assume that  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 =0.95 and  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 , the optimal number of contracts when daily settlement is considered 0.951.0751,540,000/135,000=11.64 (or 12 when rounded to the nearest whole number). This does not make the interest rate adjustment discussed in the final part of Section 3.4. Problem 3.25 A company wishes to hedge its exposure to a new fuel whose price changes have a 0.6 correlation with gasoline futures price changes. The company will lose $1 million for each 1 cent increase in the price per gallon of the new fuel over the next three months. The new fuel's price change has a standard deviation that is 50% greater than price changes in gasoline futures prices. If gasoline futures are used to hedge the exposure what should the hedge ratio be? What is the company's exposure measured in gallons of the new fuel? What position measured in gallons should the company take in gasoline futures? How many gasoline futures contracts should be traded? Each futures contract is on 42,000 gallons. The hedge ratio should be 0.6 1.5 = 0.9. The company has an exposure to the price of 100 million gallons of the new fuel. It should therefore take a position of 90 million gallons in gasoline futures. Each futures contract is on 42,000 gallons. The number of contracts required is therefore  EMBED Equation.3  or, rounding to the nearest whole number, 2143. Problem 3.26 A portfolio manager has maintained an actively managed portfolio with a beta of 0.2. During the last year the risk-free rate was 5% and equities performed very badly providing a return of "30%. The portfolio manage produced a return of "10% and claims that in the circumstances it was good. Discuss this claim. When the expected return on the market is "30% the expected return on a portfolio with a beta of 0.2 is 0.05 + 0.2 ("0.30 " 0.05) = "0.02 or  2%. The actual return of  10% is worse than the expected return. The portfolio manager has achieved an alpha of  8%! Problem 3.27. It is July 16. A company has a portfolio of stocks worth $100 million. The beta of the portfolio is 1.2. The company would like to use the December futures contract on a stock index to change the beta of the portfolio to 0.5 during the period July 16 to November 16. The index futures price is 2,000, and each contract is on $250 times the index. What position should the company take? Suppose that the company changes its mind and decides to increase the beta of the portfolio from 1.2 to 1.5. What position in futures contracts should it take? The company should short  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  or 140 contracts. The company should take a long position in  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  or 60 contracts. Problem 3.28. (Excel file) The following table gives data on monthly changes in the spot price and the futures price for a certain commodity. Use the data to calculate a minimum variance hedge ratio. (Do not make an adjustment for daily settlement)  Denote EMBED Equation.DSMT4 and EMBED Equation.DSMT4 by the  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 -th observation on the change in the futures price and the change in the spot price respectively.  EMBED Equation.DSMT4   EMBED Equation.DSMT4   EMBED Equation.DSMT4  An estimate of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  An estimate of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  An estimate of  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  The minimum variance hedge ratio is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  Problem 3.29. It is now October 2016. A company anticipates that it will purchase 1 million pounds of copper in each of February 2017, August 2017, February 2018, and August 2018. The company has decided to use the futures contracts traded by the CME Group to hedge its risk. One contract is for the delivery of 25,000 pounds of copper. The initial margin is $2,000 per contract and the maintenance margin is $1,500 per contract. The companys policy is to hedge 80% of its exposure. Contracts with maturities up to 13 months into the future are considered to have sufficient liquidity to meet the companys needs. Devise a hedging strategy for the company. (Do not make the adjustment for daily settlement described in Section 3.4. Assume the market prices (in cents per pound) today and at future dates are as follows. What is the impact of the strategy you propose on the price the company pays for copper? What is the initial margin requirement in October 2016? Is the company subject to any margin calls? DateOct 2016Feb 2017Aug 2017Feb 2018Aug 2018Spot Price372.00369.00365.00377.00388.00Mar 2017 futures price372.30369.10Sept 2017 futures price372.80370.20364.80Mar 2018 futures price370.70364.30376.70Sept 2018 futures price364.20376.50388.20 To hedge the February 2017 purchase the company should take a long position in March 2017 contracts for the delivery of 800,000 pounds of copper. The total number of contracts required is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . Similarly a long position in 32 September 2017 contracts is required to hedge the August 2017 purchase. For the February 2018 purchase the company could take a long position in 32 September 2017 contracts and roll them into March 2018 contracts during August 2017. (As an alternative, the company could hedge the February 2018 purchase by taking a long position in 32 March 2017 contracts and rolling them into March 2018 contracts.) For the August 2018 purchase the company could take a long position in 32 September 2017 and roll them into September 2018 contracts during August 2017. The strategy is therefore as follows Oct 2016: Enter into long position in 96 Sept. 2017 contracts Enter into a long position in 32 Mar. 2017 contracts Feb 2017: Close out 32 Mar. 2017 contracts Aug 2017: Close out 96 Sept. 2017 contracts Enter into long position in 32 Mar. 2018 contracts Enter into long position in 32 Sept. 2018 contracts Feb 2018: Close out 32 Mar. 2018 contracts Aug 2018: Close out 32 Sept. 2018 contracts With the market prices shown the company pays  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  for copper in February, 2017. It pays  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  for copper in August 2017. As far as the February 2018 purchase is concerned, it loses  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  on the September 2017 futures and gains  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  on the February 2018 futures. The net price paid is therefore  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  As far as the August 2018 purchase is concerned, it loses  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  on the September 2017 futures and gains  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  on the September 2018 futures. The net price paid is therefore  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  The hedging strategy succeeds in keeping the price paid in the range 371.40 to 375.20. In October 2016 the initial margin requirement on the 128 contracts is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  or $256,000. There is a margin call when the futures price drops by more than 2 cents. This happens to the March 2017 contract between October 2016 and February 2017, to the September 2017 contract between October 2016 and February 2017, and to the September 2017 contract between February 2017 and August 2017. (Under the plan above the March 2018 contract is not held between February 2017 and August 2017, but if it were there would be a margin call during this period.) Problem 3.30. (Excel file) A fund manager has a portfolio worth $50 million with a beta of 0.87. The manager is concerned about the performance of the market over the next two months and plans to use three-month futures contracts on a well-diversified index to hedge its risk. The current level of the index is 1250, one contract is on 250 times the index, the risk-free rate is 6% per annum, and the dividend yield on the index is 3% per annum. The current 3 month futures price is 1259. What position should the fund manager take to eliminate all exposure to the market over the next two months? Calculate the effect of your strategy on the fund managers returns if the level of the market in two months is 1,000, 1,100, 1,200, 1,300, and 1,400. 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The number of contracts the fund manager should short is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  Rounding to the nearest whole number, 138 contracts should be shorted. The following table shows that the impact of the strategy. To illustrate the calculations in the table consider the first column. If the index in two months is 1,000, the futures price is 10001.0025. The gain on the short futures position is therefore (1,259.00 " 1,002.50)250138 = $8,849,250 The return on the index is  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 =0.5% in the form of dividend and  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  in the form of capital gains. The total return on the index is therefore  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . The risk-free rate is 1% per two months. The return is therefore  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  in excess of the risk-free rate. From the capital asset pricing model we expect the return on the portfolio to be  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  in excess of the risk-free rate. The portfolio return is therefore  EMBED Equation.DSMT4 . 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