ࡱ> qsp#` Qbjbj *V"       4<<<<d<4R2L4 4 4 4 !!4!QQQQQQQ$Sh7VvRE #!!##R  4 4 WR&&&# 4 4 Q&#Q&&LLD  O4  @ Tf<X%M&QmR0RMV%VLOV O` "Zg"@&"4" " " "RR& " " "R####444d 444444        Department of Statistics The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Statistics 101 Spring 2008 ____________________________________________________________ Professor: Andreas Buja (Sections 001 and 002) Office: 471 JMHH Contact: Send email only in case of emergency. For the address, see my webpage. Your primary source for questions and answers should be the webCafe discussion board (see below). Otherwise, send email to the TAs. Classes meet: Section 001, Mon/Wed 10:30-12:00, in G06 JMHH Section 002, Mon/Wed 1:30-3:00, in G06 JMHH Office hours: Fri 1-3pm, 471 JMHH (both sections) Teaching Assistants and Stat Lab Name: Alex Braunstein Sivan Aldor-Noiman Michael Baiocchi Email: braunsf sivana mbaiocch (@wharton) Phone: 898-1249 898-1247 573-0533 (215-) Office: 433 432.1 434 (JMHH) Office Hours: Mon 2-4 Thu 3-5 Tue 3-5 The Stat Lab provides help with statistics to anybody on campus. It is located in F96 JMHH and is open on days when classes are in session. For staffing and hours, see  HYPERLINK "http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~juntianx/statlab.html" http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~juntianx/statlab.html Whoever you find there may or may not be able to help with homework. Therefore, most useful for you are the Stat Lab hours staffed by our own TAs: Alex Braunstein: Wed 1-3 Sivan Aldor-Noiman: Wed 10-12 Michael Baiocchi: Mon 10-12 Course website Statistics 101 is using webCafe. You can gain access by going to  HYPERLINK "http://webcafe.wharton.upenn.edu" http://webcafe.wharton.upenn.edu and following the link to the Statistics Department. All materials for this course will be distributed and managed via the website, and you will be able to monitor your grade entries throughout the semester. Note for non-Wharton students: If you do not have a Wharton computing account, you will need to establish one to access the website. The account also provides access to the computing labs in Wharton and to the intranet. To get an account, on or after the first day of classes, go to  HYPERLINK "http://accounts.wharton.upenn.edu" http://accounts.wharton.upenn.edu After you have obtained your account, allow up to 12 hours for activation. Wharton students and students who have recently taken a Wharton course have existing accounts. Course Overview This course develops ideas for helping to make decisions based on data. Some of the following material will be covered: preliminaries: percentages, logarithms, changing units data displays: boxplots, histograms, scatterplots, mosaic plots, maps, time series plots, comparison boxplots summary statistics: means, standard deviations, z-scores linear association: correlation, simple linear regression, slopes and intercepts, R2, RMSE, prediction intervals logarithmic models: diminishing returns, exponential growth/decay/depreciation, elasticity, probability, Bayes theorem, expected values and variances, the normal distribution, statistical inference: standard errors, confidence intervals, statistical tests, significance levels, p-values, applications of statistical inference to group comparisons and linear regression The course does not dwell on the details of computationits focus is understanding concepts and interpreting data. Course Materials Textbook: Statistics for Business and Economics, 6th ed., by Newbold, Carlson, Thorne. Computer software: JMP 6 Statistical Discovery Software, Thomson. Book and software should have been bundled, but the software distributor bungled the deal. We will get a CD with the JMP software later in the semester (which is why the book is about $9 more expensive than it would otherwise). Keep the receipt so you can get the JMP CD later. Both the book and software will be used in Stat 102 again. Meanwhile you should buy a 6 month license of the JMP software from the following online vendor for about $30:  HYPERLINK "http://estore.e-academy.com/" http://estore.e-academy.com/ go to Software, then JMP6, and select the license for 6 months and your computer model. This license will bridge us over till the CD is available. The CD will allow you to run JMP for ever, in particular in Stat 102, and in subsequent statistics courses if you choose to take more. Homework There will be approximately six homework assignments. Hand in a paper copy; no email. You must keep a dated file with your solutions on your computer in case the paper copy gets misplaced. Homework will not be accepted late. The homework is designed to teach, and you are encouraged to seek help from the instructor and the TAs if you have questions. You may also work with and help each other. You must, however, submit your own solutions, with your own write-up and in your own words. Verbatim copying is against the honor code! Examinations Midterm 1: Wed, Feb 7, 6-8 pm Midterm 2: Mon, Apr 9, 6-8 pm Final exam: Thu, May 3, 6:00-8:00pm. Quizzes: in-class at the beginning of the class, lasting approximately 15 minutes January xx February xx February xx March xx April xx April xx You must take the quizzes in your own section! Conflicts with dates: The exams and quizzes have been arranged so as not to conflict with religious holidays. If you still have a serious conflict, let the instructor know immediately. Make-ups are not available except for serious medical conditions with proof of doctor visit. Travel of any kind, including for weddings, do not qualify for make-ups. If you have conflicts of this type, take this course in another semester. Form of quizzes and exams: Mostly multiple choice, each question with four possible answers, only one of which his correct. On occasion there may be a question that asks for a numeric result. Content of exam questions: The questions will often not be straightforward. They require real thinking as well as careful reading of the class notes and a good understanding of the homework problems. In general, it is a bad idea 1) to try to read the instructors mind, and 2) to live with the impression I think I got it. Grading Policy Your lowest quiz score will be dropped. A missing quiz counts as a zero score. All homeworks and exams count toward the final grade. Your course grade will be calculated as 20% homework, 15% quizzes, 15% midterm 1, 20% midterm 2, and 30% final exam. These weightings refer to z-score scales where the standard deviation is the unit: course score = 0.2 zhw + 0.15 zquizzes + 0.15 zmid1 + 0.2 zmid2 + 0.3 zfinal (Standard deviations and z-scores will be an important topic in this class. The reason for using z-scores is to equalize the importance of the various grade components. This will be explained in detail in the first half of the semester.) Petition for Regrading On occasion an exam/quiz/homework question is graded incorrectly or it can be argued that alternative answers should also be accepted. If so, submit your original exam/quiz/homework to a TA with a clearly written paragraph that states the reasons for a regrade. Lost Homework Policy Homeworks do get lost on occasion. As an insurance against this eventuality, keep the original MS Word file with your solutions on your PC and do not change its time stamp after the due date anymore. You can still view the file without affecting the time stamp, but on exiting MS Word answer NO when asked Do you want to save the changes to? If your homework has been lost, print it again and also print a screen snapshot of an Explorer window that shows the folder containing the homework file in Detail mode (for the time stamp in the column with header Date Modified). Submit both to the TAs, and the homework will be accepted. Electronic Devices The use of laptops is prohibited in class. Any instance of email and IM activity in class entails a deduction from the final grade of one grade level (for example, A ! A , B ! C+). 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