ࡱ> {}z |:bjbj cc)2&,ZZ8Pz"6z8z8z8z8z8z8z$|G\z^\zqz(#(#(#86z(#6z(#(#~RXV#brS("zz0zS *PVV#(#\z\z!*zZ z: Monday, September 15: 2.1 Identifying location in a distribution: Percentiles and z-scores Read 8586 remind students about learning objectives What is a percentile? On a test, is a students percentile the same as the percent correct? A percentile describes location in a distribution, like quartiles. Alternate Example: Wins in Major League Baseball The stemplot below shows the number of wins for each of the 30 Major League Baseball teams in 2009.  5 9  6 2455 7 00455589 8 0345667778 9 123557 10 3 Calculate and interpret the percentiles for the Colorado Rockies who had 92 wins, the New York Yankees who had 103 wins, and the Cleveland Indians who had 65 wins. Remind students about language: at the 90th percentile vs. in the 90th percentile. Percentiles are boundaries, so we cant be in a percentile. Mention other method on page 86 Read 8688 Alternate Example: State Median Household Incomes Here is a cumulative relative frequency graph showing the distribution of median household incomes for the 50 states and the District of Columbia.  a) California, with a median household income of $57,445, is at what percentile? Interpret this value. b) What is the 25th percentile for this distribution? What is another name for this value? c) Make a relative frequency histogram of these data. d) Where is the original graph the steepest? What does this indicate about the distribution? Macy, a 3-year-old female is 100 cm tall. Brody, her 12-year-old brother is 158 cm tall. Obviously, Brody is taller than Macybut who is taller, relatively speaking? That is, relative to other kids of the same ages, who is taller? According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the heights of three-year-old females have a mean of 94.5 cm and a standard deviation of 4 cm. The mean height for 12-year-olds males is 149 cm with a standard deviation of 8 cm. First talk about how far above average they are. Brody is farther above average than Macy in an absolute sense. But, when compared to a typical deviation from the mean, Macy is actually taller. Use this example to derive z-score formula. Also, ask if being 10 above average is a big dealheight in inches, yes. Salary in dollars, no. Read 8991 discuss computer output on page 89 How do you calculate and interpret a standardized score (z-score)? Do z-scores have units? What does the sign of a standardized score tell you? YearPlayerHRMeanSD1927Babe Ruth607.29.71961Roger Maris6118.813.41998Mark McGwire7020.712.72001Barry Bonds7321.413.2Alternate Example: Home run kings The single-season home run record for major league baseball has been set just three times since Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs in 1927. Roger Maris hit 61 in 1961, Mark McGwire hit 70 in 1998 and Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001. In an absolute sense, Barry Bonds had the best performance of these four players, because he hit the most home runs in a single season. However, in a relative sense this may not be true. Baseball historians suggest that hitting a home run has been easier in some eras than others. This is due to many factors, including quality of batters, quality of pitchers, hardness of the baseball, dimensions of ballparks, and possible use of performance-enhancing drugs. To make a fair comparison, we should see how these performances rate relative to others hitters during the same year. Calculate the standardized score for each player and compare. In 2001, Arizona Diamondback Mark Graces home run total had a standardized score of z = 0.48. Interpret this value and calculate the number of home runs he hit. HW #19: page 99 (1, 5, 9, 11, 13, 15) Tuesday, September 16: 2.1 Transforming Data and Density Curves Corresponds to pages 9295: Give each student a slip of paper and have them guess the width of the classroom in meters. Collect the slips and graph the distribution. Describe. Then, reveal true distance and calculate the errors. Describe and discuss how the distribution looks the same/different. Then, convert the errors to feet and discuss. Real answer: ____ meters. . What is the effect of adding or subtracting a constant from each observation? What is the effect of multiplying or dividing each observation by a constant? Read 9597 In 2010, Taxi Cabs in New York City charged an initial fee of $2.50 plus $2 per mile. In equation form, fare = 2.50 + 2(miles). At the end of a month a businessman collects all of his taxi cab receipts and analyzed the distribution of fares. The distribution was skewed to the right with a mean of $15.45 and a standard deviation of $10.20. a) What are the mean and standard deviation of the lengths of his cab rides in miles? b) If the businessman standardized all of the fares, what would be the shape, center, and spread of the distribution? Start next lesson if time HW #20 page 101 (1723 odd, 32) Wednesday, September 17: 2.2 Density curves and Normal Distributions Read 103107 What is a density curve? When would we use a density curve? Why? Show how it traces a dotplot To avoid the tedium of estimating heights of all the bars in a histogram/counting lots of dots How can you identify the mean and median of a density curve? See Sudoku example on page 83. Read 108109 Show picture of Deutchmark, equation of normal curve. According to the CDC, the heights of 12-year-old males are approximately Normally distributed with a mean of 149 cm and a standard deviation of 8 cm. Sketch this distribution, labeling the mean and the points one, two, and three standard deviations from the mean. Show how to sketch, starting with 7 points on axis SD at the inflection points is a good reason for using SD rather than MAD or IQR as primary measure of variability. Normal curves are just traces of dotplotsalways mentally fill a Normal curve with dots Activity: For each of the approximately Normal distributions below, calculate the percentage of values within one standard deviation of the mean, within two standard deviations of the mean, and within three standard deviations of the mean. 1. Here is a dotplot showing the weights (in grams) of 36 Oreo cookies. The mean of this distribution is 11.392 g and the standard deviation is 0.081 g.  Weight (g) Mean 1 SD: ________ to _________ % within 1 SD: __________________ Mean 2 SD: ________ to _________ % within 2 SD: __________________ Mean 3 SD: ________ to _________ % within 3 SD: __________________ Answers: 26/36, 34/36, 36/36 2. Here is dotplot showing the scores for 50 students on an algebra test. The mean of this distribution is 76.4 and the standard deviation is 7.9.  Score Mean 1 SD: ________ to _________ % within 1 SD: __________________ Mean 2 SD: ________ to _________ % within 2 SD: __________________ Mean 3 SD: ________ to _________ % within 3 SD: __________________ 3. Here is a dotplot of Tim Lincecums strikeout totals for each of the 32 games he pitched in during the 2009 regular season. The mean of this distribution is 8.2 with a standard deviation of 2.8.  Strikeouts Mean 1 SD: ________ to _________ % within 1 SD: __________________ Mean 2 SD: ________ to _________ % within 2 SD: __________________ Mean 3 SD: ________ to _________ % within 3 SD: __________________ 4. All three of the distributions above were approximately Normal in shape. Based on these examples, about what percent of the observations would you expect to find within one standard deviation of the mean in a Normal distribution? Within two standard deviations of the mean? Within three standard deviations of the mean? Read 109112 What is the 68-95-99.7 rule? When does it apply? see box on page 110 Do you need to know about Chebyshevs inequality? No Using the earlier example, about what percentage of 12-year-old boys will be over 158 cm tall? 16%--sketch curve and mentally fill with dots! About what percentage of 12-year-old boys will be between 131 and 140 cm tall? 13.5% Suppose that a distribution of test scores is approximately Normal and the middle 95% of scores are between 72 and 84. What are the mean and standard of this distribution? Mean = 78, SD = 3 Can you calculate the percent of scores that are above 80? Explain. Not yet HW #21: page 102 (2530), page 128 (33-45 odd) Friday, September 19: 2.2 Normal Calculations Read 112114 Distribute Normal tables. What is the standard Normal distribution? Find the proportion of observations from the standard Normal distribution that are: (a) less than 0.54 (b) greater than 1.12 (c) greater than 3.89 (d) between 0.49 and 1.82. (e) within 1.5 standard deviations of the mean A distribution of test scores is approximately Normal and Joe scores in the 85th percentile. How many standard deviations above the mean did he score? In a Normal distribution, Q1 is how many SD below the mean? Alternate Example: Serving Speed In the 2008 Wimbledon tennis tournament, Rafael Nadal averaged 115 miles per hour (mph) on his first serves. Assume that the distribution of his first serve speeds is Normal with a mean of 115 mph and a standard deviation of 6 mph. (a) About what proportion of his first serves would you expect to be slower than 103 mph? (b) About what proportion of his first serves would you expect to exceed 120 mph? Remind them to do the three steps on each problem (state distribution and identify values of interest, show work, answer the question) (c) What percent of Rafael Nadals first serves are between 100 and 110 mph? (d) The fastest 30% of Nadals first serves go at least what speed? (e) A different player has a standard deviation of 8 mph on his first serves and 20% of his serves go less than 100 mph. If the distribution of his serve speeds is approximately Normal, what is his average first serve speed? HW #22: page 129 (4757 odd) Show work!! Monday, September 22: 2.2: Using the Calculator for Normal Calculations How do you do Normal calculations on the calculator? What do you need to show on the AP exam? Finding areas: normalcdf(lower, upper, mean, SD) Finding boundaries: invNorm(area to left, mean, SD) Mean and SD default to 0, 1 if not entered. Must show three steps: state distribution and identify values of interest, show work, answer. Suppose that Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws his fastball with a mean velocity of 94 miles per hour (mph) and a standard deviation of 2 mph and that the distribution of his fastball speeds can be modeled by a Normal distribution. (a) About what proportion of his fastballs will travel at least 100 mph? (b) About what proportion of his fastballs will travel less than 90 mph? (c) About what proportion of his fastballs will travel between 93 and 95 mph? (d) What is the 30th percentile of Kershaws distribution of fastball velocities? (e) What fastball velocities would be considered low outliers for Kershaw? (f) Suppose that a different pitchers fastballs have a mean velocity of 92 mph and 40% of his fastballs go less than 90 mph. What is his standard deviation of his fastball velocities, assuming his distribution of velocities can be modeled by a Normal distribution? HW #23 page 130 (5460 even, 6873) Tuesday, September 23: 2.2 Assessing Normality Read 121122 We need to check for normality before using Table A or normalcdf to convert from z-scores to percentiles (and vice-versa) The measurements listed below describe the useable capacity (in cubic feet) of a sample of 36 side-by-side refrigerators. (Source: Consumer Reports, May 2010) Are the data close to Normal? 12.9 13.7 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.9 18.4 Suggest stemplot?  EMBED Equation.DSMT4  = 15.825 s = 1.217 Read 122125 When looking at a Normal probability plot, how can we determine if a distribution is approximately Normal? Show Fathom illustration with NPP and dotplot on same scale! Sketch a Normal probability plot for a distribution that is strongly skewed to the left. Discuss how to use chapter review materials HW #24: page 136: Chapter review exercises Wednesday, September 24: Chapter 2 Review/FRAPPY FRAPPY page 134 HW #25: page 137: AP Statistics Practice Test Friday, September 26: Chapter 2 Test     PAGE  PAGE 40 Key: 5|9 represents a team with 59 wins. 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