ࡱ> *,#$%&'()y bjbj {{%RR4hH<&PL1"11124Eg r$ЎFˊx22xxˊ11xz11x!m1_$#@+{90&A,| mm$xxxxxxxˊˊxxx&xxxxxxxxxxxxxR r: ANSWERS TO ECONOMIC AND MARKET QUESTIONS Don Gimpel, March 13, 2012 PART ONE The Concordance This document has three parts. The first is this introduction which explains how the tables were intended to be used. The second is the Concordance table organized by the kind of question being asked, the question itself, and then a link to where the answer(s) can be found. The third section. Answers to Market and Economic Questions, provides links to the answers on the Internet or its location in Barrons Weekly. It also includes a column providing a brief summary of how the answers are to be interpreted. Left click on any blue text to follow the link. If the computer is connected to the Internet, clicking on an address will display the internet material. Example 1: Classical Market Analysis A classical market test can be performed by going to: Test 1: Economic Growth the Yield Curve Test 2: Monetary Policy the Fed Funds Rate Test 3: Ease of Economic Growth the Credit Spread Test 4: Market Valuation fair value Test 5: Market Sentiment consumer sentiment Example 2: Which market sectors are hot? This links to a spreadsheet that calculates the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios for about thirty markets represented by ETFs. Example 3: Set it and Forget it Funds This links to a table of Mutual Funds that have reliably returned a Cumulative Annualized Return greater than 10% when back-tested 10-years. Example 4: Links to ETFs that emulate investment strategies. Is the investment tool of the future? If you can identify an investment strategy with which you are comfortable, then you can find an ETF that emulates that strategy. Look under Investing Strategies, ETFs for a table of such ETFs. Example 5: Country Comparisons Comparison, countries links to an internet resource that ranks countries by various factors.. Examples are: Primary List Factor US Position Economy Big Mac Index purchasing power 8 of 65 Economy Business Efficiency 1 of 51 Economy Central government debt as % of GDP 50 of 99 Economy Debt service % N/L Economy Economic Aid 1 of 26 Economy Economic Freedom 6 of 156 PART TWO start CONCORDANCE TO ANSWERS TO ECONOMIC AND MARKET QUESTIONS SUBJECT KEY QUESTION CLICK ON BLUE ANSWER Advice, booksIf I could only buy one book on investing, which should it be and why? HYPERLINK \l "Advice_books" Advice, booksAdvice, gurusCan I really trust advice from gurus? Refer me to a guru with solid advice. Whats happening to the economy? HYPERLINK \l "Guru_rankings" Guru, rankings  HYPERLINK \l "Guru_Richards" Guru, Richards  HYPERLINK \l "Market_opinion" Market, opinionAdvice, investingWhere can I find some really good advice about how to invest? HYPERLINK \l "Advice_investing" Advice, investingAsset AllocationWhat is the recommended Asset Allocation? HYPERLINK \l "Asset_Allocation" Asset AllocationAsset AllocationHow important is asset allocation? HYPERLINK \l "Asset_Allocation_Brinson_Study" Asset allocation, Brinson study  HYPERLINK \l "Asset_Allocation_Importancer" Asset allocation, importance must readBlog, investmentWhere can I find market opinions from highly respected analysts? HYPERLINK \l "Blog_investment" Blog, investmentBonds, indicatorWhat is a reliable early bond timer? HYPERLINK \l "Bonds_when_to_buy" Bonds, when to buy  HYPERLINK \l "Bonds_unemployment_insurance" Bonds, unemployment insuranceBonds, indicatorWhich are the 10 most important bond indicators? HYPERLINK \l "Indicator_bonds_most_important" Indicators, bonds, most importantBonds, timingWhen is it a good time to buy and hold junk bonds? HYPERLINK \l "Bonds_High_Yield_Signals" Bonds, hi-yield, signalsBusiness analysisWhere can one find the best set of fundamental balance sheet information? HYPERLINK \l "Stock_fundamental_analysis_data" Stock, fundamental analysis, dataCalculators, financialWhere can I find really good financial calculators? HYPERLINK \l "Calculators_Ponzo" Calculators, PonzoCharting, serviceIs there a really good internet charting service? HYPERLINK \l "Charts_internet" Charts, internetCharts, economic and marketWhere can one find a really good selection of economic and market charts? HYPERLINK \l "Charts_economic_and_market" Charts, economic and marketCharts, internetIs there a good enough internet charting service that I can use? HYPERLINK \l "Charts_technical" Charts, technical analysisCommentary, marketWhere can I find reliable market commentary? HYPERLINK \l "Commentary_market_must_read" Commentary, market must readComparison, countriesHow do countries compare with one another? HYPERLINK \l "Comparison_countries" Comparison, countriesCompetitiveness, global indexIs the US competitive to the rest of the world? HYPERLINK \l "Competitiveness_index_world" Competitive IndexConfidence Index, allWhere can one find measures of Consumer Confidence and Sentiment? HYPERLINK \l "Confidence_index_all" Confidence Index, allDebt, nationalIs the US national debt a problem? HYPERLINK \l "Debt_national" Debt, nationalDebt, owedHow much do we owe right now? HYPERLINK \l "Debt_owed" Debt, owedEconomic, activityWhich states are the most entrepreneurial? HYPERLINK \l "Economic_activity_CFNAI_MA3" Economic activityEconomic, competitivenessWhich countries are the most competitive? HYPERLINK \l "Economic_competitiveness" Economic, competitivenessEconomic, freedomWhich countries have the freest economies? HYPERLINK \l "Economic_freedom" Economic, freedomEconomic indicators, graphsWhere can I find graphs that show what is happening to the economy? HYPERLINK \l "Economic_indicators_graphs" Economic indicators, graphsEconomy, consumer spendingHow do consumers feel about spending? HYPERLINK \l "Consumer_Confidence_Index" Consumer, Confidence IndexEconomy, employmentWhat is happening with employment?  HYPERLINK \l "Forecasts_economic_RBC" Unemployment, rateEconomy, FED chartsWhere can I find the charts that the FED produces that give real insight into what is going on with the economy? HYPERLINK \l "Economy_FED_Charts" Economy, FED ChartsEconomy, forecastHow do you forecast short term interest rates? HYPERLINK \l "Interest_rate_forecasts_Fed_funds" Interest rate, forecast, Fed FundsEconomy, growthWhat is the safe limit to economic growth without inflation? HYPERLINK \l "Inflation_economic_growth_without_inf" Inflation, economic growth without inflationEconomy, healthHow healthy is the economy? HYPERLINK \l "Economy_health_indicator" Economy, health indicatorEconomy, inflationWhere can I find the first hint of inflation? HYPERLINK \l "Inflation_first_look" Inflation, first lookEconomy, overheatingIs the economy overheating and in danger of inflation? HYPERLINK \l "Economy_overheating" Economy, capacity utilizationEconomy, productivityHow productive is the US economy? HYPERLINK \l "Gold_price_driver" Labor, productivityEconomy, recessionIs inflation likely? HYPERLINK \l "Recession_likelihood" Recession, likelihoodEconomy, statusWhat is the status of the economy? HYPERLINK \l "Economy_status" Economy, CFNAI_MA3Economy, unemploymentWhat does the unemployment rate tell us about the economy?Employment, rate Employment, jobless claimsEducation, investingWhere can you find investment seminars HYPERLINK \l "Education_investing" Education, investingEquivalents, mutual funds to ETFsWhere can one find an ETF equivalent to a Mutual Fund? HYPERLINK \l "Equivalents_mutual_funds_to_ETFs" Equivalents, Mutual Funds to ETFs.ETF, active managementWhere can I learn more about actively managed ETFs? HYPERLINK \l "ETF_active" ETF, activeETF, categoryWhere can I find ETFs for a specific market? HYPERLINK \l "ETF_category" ETF, categoryETF, rankingWhich are the best ETFs? HYPERLINK \l "ETF_ranking" ETF, rankingETF, screenerCan ETFs be ranked and if so which are the highest? HYPERLINK \l "ETF_screener" ETF, screenerETF, strategiesWhere can we find a list of ETFs that follow investment strategies? HYPERLINK \l "ETF_Strategies" ETF, strategiesEarnings, estimatesWhere can you find equity earnings estimates? HYPERLINK \l "Earnings_estimates" Earnings, estimatesMarket Data, freeHow can I obtain free market data? HYPERLINK \l "Data_free" Data, freeFed, functionWhat is the function of the Federal Reserve System? HYPERLINK \l "Fed_function" Fed, functionFED, predictingIs there a way of predicting FED interest rates? HYPERLINK \l "FED_predicting_the_FED_funds_rate" FED, predicting the FED Funds rateFED, viewsWhat does the FED think about the economys status? HYPERLINK \l "Fed_view" FED, Views of the economy in the Beige BookForecasts, economic and housingWhere can economic and housing forecasts be found? Where can I find a treasure trove of useful market and economic information. HYPERLINK \l "Forecasts_economic_RBC" Forecasts, economic, RBC  HYPERLINK \l "Forecasts_resources" Forecasts_resources HYPERLINK \l "Forecasts_economic_and_housing" Forecasts, economic and housingGold, buyWhen is it a good time to buy gold? HYPERLINK \l "Gold_price_driver" Gold, price driverGovernment, dataWhat is really going on with the economy? HYPERLINK \l "Government_data" Government, dataHouse, valuesMy most valuable asset is my house. How much is it worth right now? HYPERLINK \l "House_value" House, valueImport, dependencyTo what degree is the US dependant on other countries for key materials? HYPERLINK \l "import_dependancy" Import, dependencyIncome, disposable . HYPERLINK \l "Economy_income_disposable" Economy, income, disposableIndicators, stock marketWhat are the ten most important stock market indicators and where can they be found? HYPERLINK \l "Indicator_bonds_most_important" Indicators, stock, most important International, growthWhich countries are expected to be hot economically? HYPERLINK \l "Ranking_investment_markets_Sharpes" International, growthInvesting, headingIs there anything new in investing? HYPERLINK \l "Investing_future_of" Investing, headingInvesting, best strategyWhat investment strategy works best? HYPERLINK \l "Investment_strategy_best" Investment strategy, bestInvesting strategy, ETFAre there ETFs that emulate investment strategies HYPERLINK \l "Investing_Strategy_ETF" Investing strategy, ETFMarket, anomaliesAre there market anomalies that can be exploited? HYPERLINK \l "Anomalies_financial" Anomalies, financialMarket, confidence and sentiment indicatorsWhere can I learn about how investors feel about the market and investing? HYPERLINK \l "Market_confidence_and_sentiment" Market, confidence and sentimentMarket, exit pointWhen is it time to buy or sell equities? HYPERLINK \l "Market_exit_point" Market, exit pointMarket, false ideasWhere can I learn about false market ideas that get widely circulated? HYPERLINK \l "Market_false_ideas" Market, false ideasMarket, forecastWhat is going to happen to the market? HYPERLINK \l "Forecasts_market" Forecasts, marketMarket, gurusWhat do the gurus have to say about the market? HYPERLINK \l "Stock_commentary" Stocks, commentaryMarket, indicatorsWhere can I find useful market indicators? HYPERLINK \l "Indicators_economic" Indicators, economicMarket, opinionIs there one Guru whose opinion is valued higher than all others? HYPERLINK \l "Market_opinion" Market, Jeremy SiegelMarket, pricesWhere can I find free slightly delayed market index values? HYPERLINK \l "Markets_prices_delayed" Market, pricesMarket, testIs their a simple test for whats happening in the market? HYPERLINK \l "Test_1_Economic_growth_yield_curve" Test 1 through 5Market, timingIs it a good time to buy stocks? HYPERLINK \l "Stock_time_to_buy" Stock, time to buyMarket, timingWhats the most useful market timing software? HYPERLINK \l "Market_timing_software" Market, timing, softwareMarket, valuationIs the market over or under valued?Ma HYPERLINK \l "Markets_valuation_PE_ratio" rket, valuation  HYPERLINK \l "Market_fair_value_Morningstar" Market, Fair Value, MorningstarModern Portfolio TheoryIs Modern Portfolio Theory useful? HYPERLINK \l "Modern_portfolio_theory_status" Modern Portfolio Theory, statusMoney ManagersDoes anyone rank money managers? HYPERLINK \l "Money_managers_ranking" Money Managers, rankingNet worth, householdsHow well is America doing with regard to household wealth. HYPERLINK \l "Net_worth_households" Net worth households Option, calculatorsWhere can I find option calculators? HYPERLINK \l "Option_calculators" Options, calculatorsOptions, type selectionWhat kind of options are best for me in this market? HYPERLINK \l "Option_trading_strategies" Option, type selectionOverviewWhere can I find a comprehensive overview of the world economy? HYPERLINK \l "Overview_economic" Overview, economicPlanning, USDoes the US have a vision for the future? HYPERLINK \l "Planning_US" Planning, USPortfolio, efficientIs an Efficient Portfolio achievable? HYPERLINK \l "Portfolio_efficient" Portfolio, efficientRanking, investment marketsWhere can I learn about how to rank investment markets? HYPERLINK \l "Ranking_investment_markets_Sharpes" Ranking, investment markets, Sharpes Ratio or Sortino Research, economicWhere can I read about market and economic research? HYPERLINK \l "Research_papers" Research, papersStock, fundamental analysis dataWhere can I find a businesss key ratios? Where can one learn about key ratios? HYPERLINK \l "Stock_fundamental_analysis_data" Stock, fundamental analysis data  HYPERLINK \l "Stock_analysis_key_ratios" Stock, analysis, key ratiosStock, gradingWhere can I find a service that grades stocks? HYPERLINK \l "Stock_grading__fundamental" Stock, gradingStock, rankingWhere can I find a service that ranks stocks? HYPERLINK \l "Calculators_Ponzo" Stocks, rankingStock, screeningWhere can I find a good stock screening service? HYPERLINK \l "Stock_screening_AAII" Stock, screeningStock, valuationWhere can I find stock valuations? HYPERLINK \l "Stock_valuation" Stock, valuationSurprises, economicWhat is the effect of economic surprises? HYPERLINK \l "Economic_surprises" Economic, surprisesTrading, systemsWhere can I find useful trading tools? HYPERLINK \l "Charts_trading" Charts, tradingValuation, stocks by divisionTo what degree does each division of a company contribute to its value?  HYPERLINK \l "Valuation_stock_by_division" Valuation, stocks, by divisionValuation, world marketsWhat is the value of the worlds stock, bond and gold markets? HYPERLINK \l "Valuation_world_markets" Valuation, world marketsWisdom, investingWhere can I find some real common sense investing advice? HYPERLINK \l "Wisdom_investing" Wisdom, investingWisdom, adagesWhere can I get some really solid market observations? HYPERLINK \l "Wisdom_market_adages" Wisdom, market adagesWorld, trendsWheres the world going? HYPERLINK \l "World_trends" World, trends PART THREE ANSWERS TO MARKET AND ECONOMIC QUESTIONS Notes: If using an older version of Windows and connected to the internet, left click on the address in the second column to access a site. Press and the Left Click for Windows 2007 or later revisions. Non-internet locations refer to Barrons Market Week. The grey highlight signals an important reference. SUBJECT KEY LOCATION COMMENTS Advice, booksBernard Malkiels A Random Walk Down Wall StreetProfessor Malkiels book tells it like it is and is now in its tenth edition. This book is a must reading for new investors.Advice, investing HYPERLINK "http://www.cxoadvisory.com/investing-demons" http://www.cxoadvisory.com/investing-demons This site provides really good common sense advice.Asset Allocation, Brinson study HYPERLINK "http://www.mangustarisk.com/doc/pdf/Does_Asset_Allocation_Explain_40_90_100_Performance.pdf" http://www.mangustarisk.com/doc/pdf/Does_Asset_Allocation_Explain_40_90_100_Performance.pdf Professor Ibbotsons comments on the controversial Brinson Asset Allocation study. Read the paragraph immediately before the Conclusion.Anomalies, financial HYPERLINK "http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?s=anomalies" http://www.cxoadvisory.com/?s=anomalies A good description of financial anomalies,Asset Allocation HYPERLINK "http://www.ibbotson.com" http://www.ibbotson.com Go to right-hand column section Learn More and click on Asset AllocationIbbotson (Morningstar) provides monthly asset allocations for an Efficient Portfolio.Asset Allocation, calculator HYPERLINK "http://www.wolframalpha.com" http://www.wolframalpha.com Enter the market codes for up to four assets then page down to box labeled Mean Variance Optimal Portfolio. Review Return vs. Risk chart and the portfolio weighting just above  HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_Allocation" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_Allocation For an example, try GLD FNMIX VGSIX NTHEX. The procedure will calculate the portfolios asset allocation for the Efficient Portfolio which is also known as the Corner Portfolio, the highest return that can be achieved. A thorough discussion with references.Asset Allocation, importance HYPERLINK "http://www.richardnewell.com/asset-allocation.html" http://www.richardnewell.com/asset-allocation.html Select Asset Allocation is King listing in right-hand column. He provides a discussion of the Brinson Report and the Ibbotson follow-on study. Read Asset Allocation is King? And The Importance of Asset Allocation.Blog, investment HYPERLINK "http://www.investorhome.com" http://www.investorhome.com This site provides links to very well respected investment analysts like Professor Brad DeLong (UC Berkeley), Ed Yardini and others.Bonds, High-Yield, signalsLos Angeles Times Financial Section Daily Market Round-Up/Interest Rates/Junk BondsIf the spread between the High Yield Bonds Yield and 10-year Treasuries is >5.0, invest in High-Yields. If the spread falls below 3.0, sell. Buy back in when the spread rises above 5.0 .Bonds, unemployment insuranceBarrons /Market Laboratory/Indicators/employment/Initial Jobless ClaimsIncreasing claims for unemployment insurance is favorable for bonds particularly if there is a jump of 30,000 or more. A drop in unemployment is claimed to be negative for bonds.Bonds, when to buyBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Money Rates/Fed Funds RateThe second rise in the FFR after a bottom in the rate is considered a positive sign for bonds.Business optimism IndexBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Employment/Small Business Optimism IndexCalculators, Ponzo HYPERLINK "http://gummy-stuff.org/Excel" http://gummy-stuff.org/Excel  HYPERLINK "http://www.financialwebring.org/gummy-stuff/gummy_stuff.htm" http://www.financialwebring.org/gummy-stuff/gummy_stuff.htm Waterloo Universitys Professor Peter Ponzos repository of Gummy-Studds Excel Spreadsheets. Some are truly useful. The best listing is in Gummy-Stuff spreadsheets by topic.Charts, economic and market HYPERLINK "http://www.BullandBearWise.com" http://www.BullandBearWise.com This site provides access to many economic and market charts in these categories: Growth, Labor Commodities, Consumer, Mfg., Inflation, Financial, Investment. Charts, internet HYPERLINK "http://www.adrich.com" http://www.adrich.com Adrich provides 18 slightly delayed market, currency and commodity charts.Charts, technical HYPERLINK "http://stockcharts.com" http://stockcharts.com http://freestockcharts.comFee based site allows setup of an assortment of technical analysis tools. The least expensive is $14.95/month. The governing word is Free.Charts, trading HYPERLINK "http://barcharts.com" http://barcharts.com  HYPERLINK "http://theWizard.com" http://theWizard.com  HYPERLINK "http://equitytrader.com" http://equitytrader.com  HYPERLINK "http://FinViz.com" http://FinViz.com  HYPERLINK "http://stockcharts.com" http://stockcharts.com  HYPERLINK "http://ablesys.com" http://ablesys.com  HYPERLINK "http://gorillatrader.com" http://gorillatrader.com  HYPERLINK "http://www.ise.com" http://www.ise.com These sites are for traders This site is exceptional.Commentary, insightful charts HYPERLINK "http://www.businessinsider.com/category/chart-of-the-day" http://www.businessinsider.com/category/chart-of-the-day click on Chart of the DayChart-of-the-Day E*mails a chart every day that often provides insight into current market events. This is one of the better resources around.Commentary, market must read HYPERLINK "http://seekingalpha.com" http://seekingalpha.com This site is loaded with good investment information.Commentary, market valuation HYPERLINK "http://www.investorsfriend.com/" http://www.investorsfriend.com/ Click on Is the S&P 500 Index now undervaluedInvestors Friend provides commentary on market Over/Under valuation. Interesting but might be out of date to be of any current value.Commentary, market, must .read HYPERLINK "http://www.cxoadvisory.com/investing-demons/" http://www.cxoadvisory.com/investing-demons/  HYPERLINK "http://www.stratinv.net" http://www.stratinv.net click on Old Archives in lower right hand cornerValuable must read for any investor. Particularly good market commentary.Commentary, market, must readGoogle Jeremy Siegel and watch his latest video.Wharton Schools Professor Jeremy Siegel provides insightful market commentary.Commentary, market, what works HYPERLINK "http://www.cxoadvisory.com/what-investing-approaches-work-best" http://www.cxoadvisory.com/what-investing-approaches-work-best CXOAdvisory is a treasure house of information and is particularly useful for new investors. Comparison, countries HYPERLINK "http://www.nationmaster.com" http://www.nationmaster.com Provides extensive data on countries on a variety of topics. Data largely derived from the CIACompetitiveness Index, world HYPERLINK "http://www.weforum.org/gcr" http://www.weforum.org/gcr Ranks countries by their economic competitiveness.Confidence Index, all HYPERLINK "http://www.nowandfutures.com/" http://www.nowandfutures.com/ Page down and click Confidence and Sentiment Measures List The ultimate Confidence and Sentiment Measures set of charts.Confidence Index Barrons/Market Laboratory/Bonds/Weekly Bond Statistics/Confidence IndexThe higher the ratio, the greater confidence in the stock market. Compare the current value with the value 1-week and 1-year ago for trends.Consumer Confidence Index HYPERLINK "http://www.conference-board.org/topics/topics.cfm?topicID=20" http://www.conference-board.org/topics/topics.cfm?topicID=20 Look for Consumer Confidence IndexThe Consumer Confidence Index is available on the last Tuesday of the survey month. A negative index indicates economic decline. This is an early indicator of how consumers feel about spending and a strong report can move the market. Look for trends in this index. This is a good indicator of consumer spending and changes in the GDP.Consumer Price IndexBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Inflation/Consumer Price IndexCPI is an important indicator. The market reacts negatively to strong increases in this index.Data, free HYPERLINK "http://gummy-stuff.org/yahoo-data.htm" http://gummy-stuff.org/yahoo-data.htm Provides a complete set of Yahoo inquiry codes and an example of their use.Debt, nationalGoogle Alan Blinder and select the article Four Deficit Myths and a Frightening Fact This article is available to WSJ Online subscribers. Princeton Economics Professor Alan Blinder answers the question about US National Debt in his Wall Street Journal article Four Deficit Myths and a Frightening Fact on Thursday, January, 2012 page A15. Debt, owed HYPERLINK "http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html" www.usdebtclock.org/index.html  HYPERLINK "http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np" www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np Debt clock. This site provides the public debt daily to the penny.Dollar, value of, leading indicator HYPERLINK "http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.htm" http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.htm Look for Table 1 and Output per Hour of All Persons.The value of the dollar is driven by labor productivity. An increase in productivity causes the dollar to increase in value. (Since the price of gold is inversely related to the value of the dollar, the dollar will go down if productivity goes up.)Earnings, estimates HYPERLINK "http://www.cnbc.com" http://www.cnbc.com Enter the ticker code at top in quotes box.This site supplies both historic earnings and consensus earnings for the next period.Earnings, forward HYPERLINK "http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVYO" http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVYO The Commodity Research Board Year-to-Year change in the Raw Materials Index is highly correlated to the S&P 500 Forward Earnings which in turn is a leading indicator of stock prices. The Feds Fair Valuation Model is based upon S&P 500 Forward Earnings.Economic Indicators, Fed HYPERLINK "http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/98" http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/98 This site provides an Index of the Feds economic indicators.Economic Indicators, graphs HYPERLINK "http://www.crgraphs.com/" http://www.crgraphs.com/ Click on any of the Graph Galleries in the right-hand column. Expand the graph to see the complete selection.An outstand collection of economic graphs.Economic, competitiveness HYPERLINK "http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-competitiveness" http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-competitiveness Click on Quick Access which is about 1-page down.This site provides a competitive index for most countries. At this writing the USA ranks 5th.Economic, freedom HYPERLINK "http://www.freetheworld.com" http://www.freetheworld.com Select: Annual Reports: Economic Freedom of the World/latest report/complete publicationThis site provides information on which countries are the freest. This is import because economic freedom and prosperity are highly correlated.Economic, surprises HYPERLINK "http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIG10:IND" http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIG10:IND The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as the weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises.Economy, activity, CFNAI-MA3 HYPERLINK "http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/cfnai/current_data.cfm" http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/cfnai/current_data.cfm The Chicago Feds National Activity Index measures business activity in the Chicago area. It is interpreted as follows: I<-1.5 The economy is likely in a recession -1.550 is considered favorable for the market and <= 50, unfavorable.Market, insight HYPERLINK "http://www.businessinsider.com" http://www.businessinsider.com Sign up for Chart-of-the-DayE*mails a chart every day. Their charts are current and provide a deep insight into current events. This is a very valuable resource.Market, market price by divisions contributionshttp://www.trefis.comTrefis provides the sensitivity of company products (divisions) to market price and product projections. Change a products projection estimate and see its effect on market price. This is a unique capability.Market, opinionGoogle Jeremy Siegel and watch his latest video  HYPERLINK "http://www.conference-board.org/data/chiefeconomist.cfm" http://www.conference-board.org/data/chiefeconomist.cfm Wharton Schools Professor Jeremy Siegels market opinions are highly respected. The Conference Boards Chief Economist tells you what he thinks about world markets.Market, quotes, free real-time HYPERLINK "http://quotes.freerealtime.com" http://quotes.freerealtime.com Free real-time market quotations.Market, timing, software HYPERLINK "http://www.ultraFS.com" http://www.ultraFS.com This software package allows for easy construction of composite trading systems. It also makes complex iteration studies easy.Market, valuation HYPERLINK "http://www.investorsfriend.com/" http://www.investorsfriend.com/ Page down to select Is the S&P 500 Index now Under-Valued?This site provides a good explanation of market valuation.Market, valuation, earnings yieldBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indexes/P/Es and Yields/S&P 500 Index/P/E RatioIf the P/E is greater than 30, the market is considered as overvalued and if <8, undervalued (Nakamichi).Markets, Consensus IndexBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Investor Sentiment Readings/Consensus Bullish SentimentHigh readings are signs of market tops; low readings, market bottoms.Markets, consumer spending HYPERLINK "http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm" http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm This site provides an early indicator of how consumers feel about spending and a strong report can move the market. Look for trends in the index. This indicator tends to lead consumer spending and changes in the GDP.Markets, directionBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators//CBOE Put/Call Ratio vs. S&P 500The Equity Put/Call Ratio is considered Bullish around 0.6 and Bearish if near 0.3. The S&P 100 is considered Bullish at 1.2 and Bearish at 0.75.Markets, earnings as indicator of company healthBarrons/Market Laboratory/Stocks/Indexes Prices and Yields/S&P 500 Index/Earnings Yield %A healthy economy will have rising S&P 500 earnings. This is not necessarily the same for dividends which tend to cycle between 30 and 60% of earnings.Markets, fair value S&P 500, DED system HYPERLINK "http://www.investorsfriend.com/S%20and%20P%20500%20index%20valuation.htm" http://www.investorsfriend.com/S%20and%20P%20500%20index%20valuation.htm Read What is the Earnings and P/E Ratio on This site provides a discussion of market valuation but Morningstars is more up-to-date.Market, false ideasMarkets, Fed Funds RateBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators//Money Rates/Fed Funds RateA second drop in the FFR following a peak is considered a positive market sign..Markets, hotWhich marketMarkets, insider transactionsBarrons/Research Reports/Insiders Transactions Ratio in lower right cornerThe Insiders Buy/Sell Ratio is Bullish if <12 and Bearish if >20.Markets, prices, delayed HYPERLINK "http://www.adrich.com" http://www.adrich.com Provides slightly delayed market, currency and commodity indexes.Markets, S&P 500, forecast HYPERLINK "http://www.forecasts.org/stpoor.htm" http://www.forecasts.org/stpoor.htm  HYPERLINK "http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/marketquotes ZQ.html" http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/marketquotes ZQ.html This site provides a 6-month forecast This site provides a range of future quotes but is difficult to get to.Markets, valuation, P/E RatioBarrons/Market Laboratory/Stocks/IndexesP/Es and Yields/S&P 500 Index/P/E RatioThe market is considered overvalued if the P/E Ratio is >30 and Undervalued if <8 (Nakamichi).Markets, valuation, Put-Call RatioBarrons/Options/CBOE Market Report/Put-Call Ratio/CBOE EquityThis indicator is a measure of market psychology and is considered Bullish if >0.^ and Bearish if <0.3 .Markets, valuations, real earningsBarrons/Market Laboratory/Stocks/Indexes/P/Es and Yields/S&P 500 Index/Real Earnings and Market Laboratory/Indicators/Inflation/Rate of InflationThe Real Earnings is defined as the spread between reported earnings and the inflation rate. A spread greater than 1.5 is considered healthy and favorable for the market.Modern Portfolio Theory, software HYPERLINK "http://www.effisols.com/visualmvo/index.htm" http://www.effisols.com/visualmvo/index.htm Low priced MPT software for calculating Efficient Portfolios.Modern Portfolio Theory, status HYPERLINK "http://En.Wikipedia.org/wiki/post-modern_portfolio_theory" http://En.Wikipedia.org/wiki/post-modern_portfolio_theory  HYPERLINK "http://En.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio" http://En.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio A discussion of ranking investments (markets) using Sharpes and Sortino Ratios. Sharpes ration ranking is useful for identifying hot markets. Sortino ratios are even better. Dont miss See Also at the bottom of page.Money Managers, ranking HYPERLINK "http://www.managerreview.com" www.managerreview.com Fee based Money Manager reviews.Net worth, households HYPERLINK "http://www.nowandfutures.com/households.html" http://www.nowandfutures.com/households.html This site provides a chart of total US Household Wealth.Oil, price forecast HYPERLINK "http://www.forecasts.org/oil.htm" http://www.forecasts.org/oil.htm Forecasts the price of oil. Increasing oil prices are a negative market indicator.Option trading, strategies HYPERLINK "http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/strategy/optionstrategyselector.htm" http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/strategy/optionstrategyselector.htm They will recommend an optimum trading strategy after asking a few simple questions. This is a valuable resource for traders.Option, calculators HYPERLINK "http://www.wolframalpha.com" http://www.wolframalpha.com Type in an option type to obtain a very sophisticated option calculator.Overview, economic HYPERLINK "http://www.ibbotson.com" http://www.ibbotson.com Go to right-hand column section Learn More and click on CommentaryIbbotson (Morningstar) provides market commentary.Planning, US HYPERLINK "http://www.dni.gov/nic/" http://www.dni.gov/nic/ Click on Global Trends 2025.The National Intelligence Council is an inter-agency branch of government looking ahead till 2025.Portfolio, efficient HYPERLINK "http://www.richardnewell.com/efficient-portfolio.htm" http://www.richardnewell.com/efficient-portfolio.htm Planning, USThis site provides an excellent discussion of Modern Portfolio Theory and its current status.Ranking, investment markets, Sharpes Ratio HYPERLINK "http://En.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio" http://En.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio  HYPERLINK "http://www.naaim.org/files/2010/L-001.pdf" http://www.naaim.org/files/2010/L-001.pdf  HYPERLINK "http://www.AAIILosAngeles.org/tools-hints.htm" http://www.AAIILosAngeles.org/tools-hints.htm Choose Buy-Sell-Colours-Markets-ETF This site provides a definition without much background. Sharpes Ratio market ranking can list markets by their excess expected return per unit of risk thereby identifying hot markets.. See Calculators and download Buy-Sell-Colours for examples of Sortino Ratio Ranking. An interesting discussion of Sharpes Ratio ranking based upon price momentum and the real benefits derived. Ranking with Investors FastTrack is easy and fast.Recession, likelihoodBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Money-rates/T-Bill Rates/13-week coupon yieldA recession is likely if the 5-year T-Note rate is less than or equal to the 90-day T-Bill coupon minus 0di.scu2ssi5Recession, likelihood HYPERLINK "http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/cfnai//index.cfm" http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/cfnai//index.cfm Click on Latest CFNAI Release.The Chicago Fed CFNAI talks of the likelihood of a recession.Recession, likelihood HYPERLINK "http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html" http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html Page down to The Recession Probabilities chartUses interest rates and the monetary base to forecast recessions. The techniques has a 100% track record.Research, papers HYPERLINK "http://www,newyorkfed.org/research/publications_annuals/index.html" http://www,newyorkfed.org/research/publications_annuals/index.html Look for Most Recent Research Postings or Most Downloaded Publications in center column The New York Fed staff publishes their economic research.Retirement portfolio HYPERLINK "http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ranking+investments" http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ranking+investments WolframAlpha computes retirement portfolio value based upon yours current and retirement age, accumulation and distribution style, yearly investments all in terms of the current don Gimpel currency value.Sales, retailBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Consumption and Distribution/Retail SalesHealthy retail sales lead to increased corporate profits and this is healthy for the market.Savings, rateBarrons/Market Laboratory Indicators/Economic Growth and Investment/Personal Savings RateSavings provide the capital for investment. Look for a positive trend.Sentiment, consumer confidence HYPERLINK "http://research,stlouisfed,org/fred2/series/UMCSENT?CID=98" http://research,stlouisfed,org/fred2/series/UMCSENT?CID=98 This site provides the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.Stock, analysis, by product HYPERLINK "http://www.trefis.com" http://www.trefis.com Analyzes the relationsihip between stock price and a companys product performance, i.e., the price sensitivity to a product.Stock, analysis, key ratioshttp://www.investopedia.com/university/ratios/This site defines key ratios with interpretations and examples.Stock, analyst coverage HYPERLINK "http://finance.yahoo.com" http://finance.yahoo.com Type in the symbol and select Profile in left hand column. Click on Analyst Coverage  HYPERLINK "http://www.nasdaq.com" http://www.nasdaq.com Type in the symbol.This site is a rich source of analyst opinions. You will obtain analyst summaries in easy to understand form plus their detailed recommendations, target price ranges, and much more in an easy to understand format.Stock, commentary HYPERLINK "http://adrich.com" http://adrich.com click on Archived Copies below Fred Richards picture at upper right.  HYPERLINK "http://www.cxoadvisory.com" http://www.cxoadvisory.com  HYPERLINK "http://seekingalpha.com" http://seekingalpha.com These are three worthwhile opinion sites.Stock, exit point HYPERLINK "http://www.exitpoint.com" http://www.exitpoint.com They will tell you when to sell a stock for $10 per month. They also supply the metrics on which they base their recommendation. Stop loss information is also included.Stock, fundamental analysis data HYPERLINK "http://www.wolframalpha.com" http://www.wolframalpha.com WolframAlpha provides complete business data. For advanced information, click on the symbol in the upper right-hand corner of any data block. This is the place to look for key ratios which are essential for business analysis and comparisons.Stock, grading, fundamental HYPERLINK "http://www.Morningstar.com" http://www.Morningstar.com  HYPERLINK "http://www.Zacks.com" http://www.Zacks.com  HYPERLINK "http://www.fool.com" http://www.fool.com All three sites provide free fundamental stock ranking.Stock, grading, general HYPERLINK "http://www.nasd100.com" http://www.nasd100.com  HYPERLINK "http://www.marketgrader.com" http://www.marketgrader.com This site ranks US stocks in a variety of ways. This is useful if you are searching for stock buying opportunities. Grading is based on GARP with >60 a Buy, between 50 and 60, a hold and 49 or less, a Sell.Stock, grading, technical HYPERLINK "http://www.stockcharts.com/freecharts/sctr.html" http://www.stockcharts.com/freecharts/sctr.html Ranking is based on Price Momentum technical indicators.Stock, key statistics HYPERLINK "http://finance.yahoo.com" http://finance.yahoo.com Type in the stocks code and select profile in the left hand column and Key Statistics at the very bottom of the center column.This is a very good source of a stocks key balance sheet items and more.Stock, screening, AAII HYPERLINK "http://www.aaii.com/stock-screens" http://www.aaii.com/stock-screens  HYPERLINK "http://www.fidelity.com" http://www.fidelity.com click on Research then Stocks and then on Preset Expert Strategies in left-hand column, Log in to view strategies..AAIIs stock screen compound annual return (CAR) is 34% over the last 10-years. AAII also offers over 70 screening strategies emulating popular techniques. Provides over 40 outside expert strategiesStock, screening, Fidelity HYPERLINK "http://research2.fidelity.com/fidelity/screeners/commonstock/main.asp" http://research2.fidelity.com/fidelity/screeners/commonstock/main.asp Click on Expert ScreensThe Fidelity Expert Screens use outside advisors. And offer more than 40 investment styles from Zacks, S&P, Recognia and others.Stock, upside potential HYPERLINK "http://www.nasd100.com/sp500upside" http://www.nasd100.com/sp500upside This site provides a table of the upside potential for S&P 500 stocks plus other good information.Stock, valuation HYPERLINK "http://www.moneychimp.com" http://www.moneychimp.com This site provides an estimate of a stocks intrinsic value.Stocks, time to buyBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Money Rates/Fed Funds Rate lA good rule to follow is to buy stocks on the second decline of the Fed Funds Rate following a peak in the rate.Investment strategy, best HYPERLINK "http://www.aaii.com/stock-screens" http://www.aaii.com/stock-screensThe AAII offers historical performance data on roughly 80 different screens using a variety of strategies. You can rank the strategies to determine if there is a strategy performance pattern.Test 1: Economic growth, yield curveBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Money Rates/T-Bill Rates/13-week Barrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Adjustable Mortgage Base RatesRecord the 13-week coupon rate. Record the 10-year Treasury Note rate. Compute the difference between the 10-year and 13-day rates. This is the slope of the yield curve. A high slope indicates expectations of an accelerating economy that could cause inflation by pushing up long term yields. A flat curve indicates few inflation qualms and moderate growth. An inverted (negative) curve signals recession [3]Test 2: Monetary Policy, Fed Funds RateBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Money Rates/Fed Funds RateThe Fed Funds Rate is the rate that member banks are charged for short-term Fed funds. Stocks rise by an average of 26% after the Fed eases the rate but stocks register gains after an initial tightening 75% of the time with an average return of 10%. One month after the Fed starts to ease rates, large-caps average an increase of 2.2%, small-caps 4.9 and micro-caps 6.1%. One month after tightening, large caps generally fall by 1.9%, small-caps by 2.5 and micro-caps by 2.6%. [3]Test 3: Ease of Economic Growth, credit spreadBarrons/Market Laboratory/Bonds/Weekly Bond Statistics/Interm-Grade-BondsThe rates paid by BBB or lower rated bonds provide a sensitive indicator of corporate borrowing ease. Test 4: Market Overvaluation HYPERLINK "http://www.morningstar.com/cover/market-fair-value-graph.aspx" http://www.morningstar.com/cover/market-fair-value-graph.aspx Morningstar provides a graph showing price ratio to fair value for the median stock in the selected coverage universe.Test 5: Market emotions HYPERLINK "http://reseaarch.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UMCSENT" http://reseaarch.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UMCSENT This site provides a chart of the University of Michigans Consumer Sentiment Survey. Generally, readings above 80% and very low readings, below 20%, are signs of market tops and bottoms.Trends, global to 2035 HYPERLINK "http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf" http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf The National Intelligence Councils forecasts to 2025Unemployment Indicator, help wanted ads indicatorBarronx/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Employment/Help Wanted AdsAn increase in the volume of Help Wanted Ads is an early recovery indicator.Unemployment Indicator, initial jobless claims indicatorBarrons Market Laboratory/Indicators/Employment/Initial Jobless ClaimsIncreasing claims for unemployment insurance is a favorable sign for bonds especially if there is a 30,000 or greater jump. A drop is negative for bonds.Unemployment Indicator, unemployment rateBarrons/Market Laboratory/Indicators/Employment/Unemployment RateThis source provides the unemployment rate which is possibly the single most watched indicator. Wages tend to go up when unemployment is less than 4.6% driving inflation. The Unemployment Rate measures those that are employable. When it reaches the Full Employment rate, employers are forced to offer more money to attract new workers. and this is inflationary.Valuation over/under HYPERLINK "http://www.morningstar.com/cover/market-fair-value-graph.aspx" http://www.morningstar.com/cover/market-fair-value-graph.aspx This site is an invaluable market valuation resource because it shows market valuation and trend.Valuation, stock, by division HYPERLINK "http://www.trefis.com" http://www.trefis.com This site provides a stocks valuation for each divisions contributionValuation, world markets HYPERLINK "http://www.nowandfutures.com/world.html" http://www.nowandfutures.com/world.html page down to valuation chartsWorld stock, bond and gold market valuations in billions of US$.Valuation, marketSee commentary on Market ValuationWisdom, investinghttp://www.cxoadvisory.com/investing-demons/CXO Advisory provides solid advice with links to sources. This is a must read.Wisdom, market adages HYPERLINK "http://www.nowandfutures.com/quotes.html" http://www.nowandfutures.com/quotes.html This links to a large set of market adages.World, trendshttp://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdfThis report provides real insight into where the worlds going. Not to be missed. Read the list of contributors. NOTES: The important indicators are shaded. This WORD document permits direct access to the Internet by clicking on the address. Internet sites sometimes reorganize their sites but usually keep the same content. Go to the sites home page and work your way to the material cited. REFERENCES: Baumohl, Bernard, The Secrets of Economic Indicators Wharton School Pub. 2005, page 12 Kasriel, Paul and Schap, Keith, 7-Indicators that Move Markets, McGraw-Hill, 2001 C. Grajab and E. Unger, The Only Indicators You Will Ever Need, Bloomberg Personal Finance, January-February 2001, pgs 76-83 DISCLAIMER These notes are being distributed as educational material. The author is not responsible for any investment losses arising from misinterpretations or other use. .     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