ࡱ> '` bjbjDD 8&&s0hhhhhhh|8D|k܄܄܄܄Vdu4$hmbh͊͊͊hh܄܄%EEE͊h܄h܄E͊EEXhh ܄ i͊<;0k ( hֵ*W|Eӈd7 <k͊͊͊͊|||$o||||||hhhhhh The Q2 2010 Market Rush Review By Mark Rush HYPERLINK "mailto:redgroup2@yahoo.com"redgroup2@yahoo.com  July 5rd 2010 Preface Once again, it is once again time for my quarterly market review, where I examine world events and attempt to understand their implications on the market. This is my time to reflect on current events, portfolio performance, and event scenarios, and their subsequent implication on world equity markets and my investment strategies. As you read through this review, even if you dont agree with my thoughts or analysis, please take the time to think about your financial choices and ways to improve your returns. It is my goal in life to have my money working for me instead of me working for my money. Please email me with your thoughts, questions, and insights on the opinions that I present. The purpose of my effort is to stimulate a dialogue around current events and their impact on the markets. This document may be distributed to anyone free of charge as long as it is provided in an unaltered form. I reserve all Intellectual Property Rights of this document. Regards, Mark Rush HYPERLINK "mailto:redgroup2@yahoo.com"redgroup2@yahoo.com Please read this important notice Disclaimers As you read this document keep in mind that I do not have any special insights into the markets nor do I have any type of training or experience in any kind of investments. I am not a financial advisor nor do I have a degree in economics or finance. Remember these facts as you read and ponder my unprofessional opinions. This document should not be construed as investment advice; you and your financial advisor are responsible for making your investment decisions. The purpose if this document is for me to think out loud and stimulate thoughts regarding my investment ideas for my portfolio. I am asking you for your feedback about my thoughts, strategies and conclusions. Nothing in this document should be construed as tax advice or estate planning. Tax laws are complicated and change often. I do not have the time to follow changes in tax codes; therefore, any thoughts I may have on the subject are very likely to be obsolete or, at the very least, dated. Before you attempt to implement any tax strategies you should consult a tax professional or financial advisor. All thoughts and strategies are based on the fact that I invest money from the United States using US dollars and pay US taxes. All comments and views are from my American investment perspective. Many of my strategies consider US tax implications and currency exchange rates that may not be valid when viewed from outside the US. The views and opinions in this report are strictly my own based on publicly available information. I do not have any special perspective into the markets. Opinions stated are my own and do not reflect the opinions from any current, past or future employer. I will/may change my strategy and investment ideas radically and suddenly between reports without notice to any receivers of this report. My own investment strategies can be extremely aggressive and my portfolio should not be replicated by anyone, including me. I am an amateur investor and this document is a hobby for me. Any thoughts and concepts should be treated as such. Please consult a professional financial advisor before you make any investment decisions regarding your investment ideas, goals, and strategies. Continue reading this document at your own risk This report is subject to considerable error and the opinions can change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investments. Do NOT ever purchase any security or investment without doing your own and sufficient research. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Introduction The European sovereign debt crisis has started to unfold and this will be the event that will make or break the current economic recovery. The Keynesian mantra of In the long run, we are all dead is revealing to us all how this generational Ponzi scheme plays out. We are the ones currently living in the Keynesian long run Keynes is indeed dead but we as his economic decedents live on to pay for those ill-conceived consequences of borrowing without any regard to repayment. Hopefully our elected officials are following events in Greece and other debt ridden countries because I fear their fate foreshadows our economic destiny. I believe that its risky to fully invest in stocks at this time and I will be waiting until this November to see how things shake out before I put my savings to work. Please feel free to drop me a line to let me know what I can change to make more articles appeal to you. Many articles are responses to questions/comments from the readers. Regards, Mark Rush Yellow Spring, West Virginia Chapter 1 The Basics BP As some of you may remember, I highlighted BP as an investment in past issues for its strong dividend, its discount to its peers and the fundamentals of oil. For a while BP was about 15% of my net worth. I had made a couple of comments over the years about BP, the first quote I found was This company (BP) is probably one of the more screwed up oil companies going and the other quote regarding doing business in the US was I would shy away from US based oil companies. What I have learned from this is when a company has a material discount to its peers that the risks are likely understated and just because an oil company is headquartered in another country that its not immune from US politics. I have already had several people ask me about BP stock and wanted to give my thoughts. My answer is that I dont plan to buy this stock at this time. First the spill hasnt stopped and potentially could continue for many more months. Second this administration and Congress is hostile to business and gives them an excuse to confiscate wealth for redistribution. Third, this company small but very real chance of going out of business given the previous two items. Now, lets be clear on one issue, I believe that BP is clearly responsible for the disaster and should pay all legitimate claims to compensate people for their losses directly caused by the spill. These claims should be paid even if BP needs to go bankrupt to pay them. But I do want BP to survive this mess because I want them to be able to pay those claims, provide needed oil from within our borders, create high paying value added jobs, produce real economic activity within the US, and pay US taxes to help reduce our deficits. I suspect my definition of legitimate and the current administrations definition of legitimate may bankrupt BP and we may lose those benefits that I just outlined. There is absolutely no reason to rush into this stock at anytime soon. There will be plenty of time later to buy into this stock at a bargain price in a year or two; this story will take years to play out and ample time to buy later. In the future costs will be higher because BP will be ultraconservative, they will be under heavy scrutiny, and another disaster will surely bankrupt the company. Even after the spill has stopped I wouldnt buy this stock, I would expect a fools rally to occur, but the cleanup and the litigation will continue to haunt this company for the foreseeable future and the shares may continue downward even after the spill has been stopped. Fortunately for me I sold all my BP shares earlier this year because I thought oil was too high and in anticipation of changes to the dividend tax laws. Luck in this case was far better than wisdom in this case. I am currently short January $45 calls and plan to sell more when the spill has been stopped. Social Security The $50 Trillion Ponzi scheme Definition: A Ponzi scheme is a HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud" \o "Fraud"fraudulent HYPERLINK "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment" \o "Investment"investment operation that pays returns to separate investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit earned. Definition: Social Security/Medicare is a tax that pays current recipients from current tax holder with a promise to pay subsequent taxpayers, rather than from any investments. I am being lazy and instead of writing a 10 page rant on Social Security/Medicare I have provided a link to a slide show that provides a relatively concise summery of the problem. This is probably the most important issue regarding our long term economic health. The unfunded liabilities that we are accruing will damage everyones standard of living and reduce the status of the US as a world power. Please take into consideration that this slideshow was written in 2008 before the current deficits and trillions more being added to the government supported health care system. HYPERLINK "http://perotcharts.com/challenges/" \t "_blank"http://perotcharts.com/challenges/ The facts that are presented in the slideshow are the simple facts of our current long-term problematic economic situation. Social Security (SS) will eventually decimate the US economic health and materially degrade the value the US dollar over the next 40 years. Our nation spends more money than it collects already SS surpluses have been borrowed by the government and spend already The national debt is approaching a debt spiral in the next 10 years The dollar will likely fall precipitously and inflation run rampant Real wealth and income for all citizens will fall materially The Govt spends 20% of GDP now and by 2050 will consume 60% of GDP All taxes on everyone will need to triple just to support existing programs Those people already paying 35% or more in taxes will need to pay 100% The talented and wealthy may decide to leave the US compounding the problem There are no fixes that are politically achievable, this will occur The SS crisis will make the housing crisis look like a runny nose The only real way for an individual to escape this problem is to move to another country; keep in mind that US tax law dictates that you are still are required to pay US taxes as long as you are a US citizen. I assume the day will come when people will leave the US and give up their citizenship just to avoid going broke but thankfully US treasury has already thought of the problem and a solution. If you leave the US and give up your citizenship, you still owe US income taxes for the following 10 years. Over the next 5-10 years, I believe that the implications of this phenomenon are going to be higher taxes, inflation, and interest rates with a falling dollar. Long term, I like owning real estate with a lot of debt while also holding foreign stocks and bonds. Owning long term debt/bonds denominated in US dollars is an extremely BAD IDEA Chapter 2 Indicators It is time to review market indicators based on my opinion based on my limited understanding of how the world works. The purpose of this section is to highlight current risks in the market. I will attempt to quickly try to explain my thought process behind each rating. Economic Indicators (my opinions) US Gross National Product (GDP) Growth > +2.0 % for 2010 It seems like we are on track to get some growth this year but Europes problems are putting more risk into the macroeconomic situation. Current consensus estimates for US GDP growth is still 3.3% this year. The economy seems to be stabilizing and likely to expand this year Unemployment of falls to < 8.5% by the end of 2010 Im still not sure what I was thinking when I made this prediction I will be wrong!!  I hope unemployment has peaked and I am looking forward to less unemployment in the future but for now this indicator is a big negative at 9.5%. Almost everyone (including me) believes it will be several years before we get back to normal unemployment rates. It is possible that unemployment may have peaked. If we go above 10% again it would be a very ominous sign. Unemployment is very high Federal Reserve holds rates steady or raises interest rates 2010 You cant lower interest rates lower than zero. The current problems in Europe are likely to force the Fed to hold rates low for a longer period of time. I was expecting them to raise rates toward the end of the year but with until the crisis in Europe is resolved rates will necessarily stay low. On an interesting side note, China has been raising rates and reserve requirements. They are busy trying to slow down their economy. They are also allowing the value of their currency go up.  Low rates are good for the market Inflation > 3.0% in 2010 The current inflation rate is around +2.0% and inflation is unlikely to show its ugly head until the economy recovers. The European sovereign debt crisis is putting a damper on demand and destroying wealth. I would expect inflation to stay tame through 2012.  Currently we are not experiencing inflation or deflation and the vast increase money supply seems to have stabilized. Return of spending by US consumer in 2010 Foreclosures will be higher than historical for the next 2-3 years; consumer spending will take years to recover since much of the spending was financed via fictitious housing values. There are some people theorizing that consumer spending is actually be propped up by the millions of people who are living in their house waiting to be foreclosed upon. The theory goes that the soon to be foreclosed upon people dont need to make a rent or mortgage payment and just spend the extra money on consumer goods. Since it can take 12-18 months for the banks to get around to kicking them out of the banks house these people are inadvertently propping up spending. Once they need to start paying rent again consumer spending may fall again. This indicator remains weak but stable S&P profits grow by 20% in 2010 Corporations were financially stronger going into this down turn (except financial institutions) compared to other downturns but this one will be much deeper. Analysts expectations are around 35%, but they tend to be a bit over optimistic and I pessimistic. I expect S&P 500 earnings growth to be up >20% from 2009 Stable (- 5%) Real Estate prices in 2010 The 30 year mortgage rate is now 4.8% near recent record lows. The current administrations propensity to spend should put pressure on long term interest rates and inflation expectations. The Fed stopped buying mortgage securities in March and rates should eventually go up and that should push prices down for houses. But for now the debt crisis has caused a flood of money to leave Europe and slosh upon our shores. This event should help keep rates low and help support the housing market. Housing prices are up 3.8% in the past year. 30 Year Mortgage Rates  Housing prices are stabilizing; interest rates are low >$1,000,000,000,000.00 ($1 trillion Dollars) budget deficit for FY 2010 I have already been proven so incredibly wrong on this estimate. The administration is now projecting a $1.5 trillion deficit on top of $2.2 trillion of revenue they expect to receive. How much money is the deficit? The government is planning to deficit spend over $5,150 per person ( about $20,600 for a family of four) on top of the $7,500 per person ($30,000 for a family of four) that it actually collects. This years budget actually spends more ($50,600 for a family of four) than the median US household income ($50,000). Does this bother anyone? This massive taxing, borrowing, and spending will eventually have a catastrophic impact on interest rates, inflation, value of the dollar, and standards of living for everyone. In 1944, Friedrich Von Hayek wrote a book call Road to Serfdom eventually he received the Nobel Prize in economics in 1974. Everyone should read this book.  I believe thoughtless government overspending is harmful in the long run International value of the US dollar declining >35% in next 5 years In the long run the dollar has no direction to go but down. The combination of poor education, poor fiscal discipline (public and private), and mass retirement only leads me to believe over the next 20 years it would be better to place a significant portion of your investments overseas to obtain better growth and to take advantage of the eventual currency devaluation and fall in local purchasing power. Currently the dollar is being bought and has risen over 10% since November. I believe that its because in the developed world we are the ship that is sinking the slowest.  Long term bad for US investing; Good for Foreign investments Improved Liquidity in 2010 The below chart shows the TED (Treasury Euro-Dollar) spread. This shows the premium that banks must pay over Treasuries to get money. This is kind of like a fear index for the credit market. We have returned from the precipice and things are much more stable but things look like they may be set to deteriorate again (note slight uptrend in graph). (Bond market fear index)  This indicator has improved from late 2009 but has but seems to be increasing again Technical Indicators Technical analysis is the attempt to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data. I use Barchart ( HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/"http://www.barchart.com/ ) to come up with a final objective opinion of an investment. I say objective since it is a purely mathematical method to project a direction of an investment. Its primary ability (flaw) is that it tries to predict the future by interpolating from the past performance. One phrase does come to mind, Past performance is not an indication of future results. Barchart changed the links to the various WebPages and I have updated those new links. I also have changed my volatility index indicators from the CBOT Volatility Index (VIX) to the stock market tradable volatility index Volatility ETF (VXX). Model Portfolio and other technical indicators (+100% = strong buy; -100% = strong sell) US Stock 1/3/09 3/31/09 6/31/10 Link SPY +64% +80% -100% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/SPY"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/SPY QQQQ +96% +80% -100% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/QQQQ"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/QQQQ IWM +88% +80% -80% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/IWM"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/IWM Foreign EFA +56% +64% -80% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/EEM"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/EEM EEM +80% +72% -80% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/EEM"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/EEM Bonds TLT -88% -72% +100% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/TLT"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/TLT SHY -88% -16% +96% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/SHY"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/SHY Gold/Oil/Dollar Idex/Euro/Yen/ GLD -8% +8% +40% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/GLD"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/GLD USO +48% +72% -80% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/USO"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/USO UUP +72% +64% +16% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/UUP"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/UUP FXE -56% -72% -48% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/FXE"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/FXE FXY -64% -100% +88% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/FXY"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/FXY Volatility ETF VXX -32% -24% +80% HYPERLINK "http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/VXX"http://www.barchart.com/opinions/etf/VXX The Volatility ETF (VXX) (stock market fear index) The Volatility index (VIX) can be thought of as the US stock market fear indicator and the higher it is the higher the fear in the market. Once the Greek debt crisis started to come to fruition, this index rose again. Its clearly not back to where it was two years ago but it certainly in higher now. This is a bad sign for stocks  This indicator is very bad sign for stocks. If this index got below 25 again I would consider buying stocks again. Over 50 would be very ominous. These technical indicators have are negative for all stocks and oil while strong for owning the US dollars, Yen, gold and US Debt. Bonus Goomy Item In addition to my normal indicators I also watch the ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators. I dont have regular access to the data but wanted to include it in this quarters report.  A negative reading indicates increased risk for a recession. Chapter 3 The Plan Every trader reserves the right to make a more intelligent decision today than he made yesterday. - Sheldon Natenberg Where do we go from here? Fear and Greed I am not feeling very optimist this summer on the stock market, I see the following events that will likely scare capital. Fear Sovereign debt risks US tax cuts expire Health care reform Political agenda/Hostile business environment Housing crisis continuing On the positive side we have Greed Steady recovery Expanding GDP/Corporate earnings Cheap stocks Low inflation Long term growth in emerging markets Stable housing prices Low interest rates During bubbles people are enthusiastic and they dont want to miss out on profits (greed) and during downturns everyone is afraid they are going to lose money (fear). I believe going into 2011 fear will dominate It looks like we are potentially entering a third phase of this borrowing crisis. The first phase was when people had too much personal/home debt that couldnt be repaid; that caused the second phase when the banks had too much debt that they were unable to repay and now the final phase when governments have too much debt to repay. Im not sure what the fourth phase would be like but I am sure that I dont want to find out. European Markets European response to their current debt problems is to raise taxes and cut spending. The economic left are panicking about cutting spending for they believe stimulus is needed and those on the economic right are howling about the raising of taxes will impede investment. In this case they both sides agree that this is not a good thing. If we go there is double dip recession then it will be instigated by this European imprudence. I shall not make any new investments in Europe for the foreseeable future and I am currently short the Euro. The economy and budget deficits The US government is on a collision course with financial disaster. I know of no way to stopping it. I will never hold long term Bonds denominated in US Dollars nor have net investments that are tied to the US dollar. Eventually interest rates MUST GO UP, the government is going to crowd out capital to fund its spending. Eventually the most likely band aid will involve devaluating (either directly or indirectly) the US dollar. This is as sure as the laws of physics. We got ourselves into this current mess by individuals borrowing money they could not repay therefore our logical solution to this problem is for us to collectively borrow too much money that we can not repay? I warned my readers of the impeding housing bubble in 2006 and now I am warning them of the impending US debt spiral. This is what is happening to our socialist leaning friends in Europe right now. The PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) have been using borrowed money to finance current spending. This is all well and good until people stop loaning you money. There is great quote attributed to Margret Thatcher regarding our popular economic policies The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money to spend." Greece has reached that point and other will soon follow. I cant emphasize this enough I will not buy nor shall I ever hold US Treasuries Bonds (except for TIPS). Yields are far too low for the risk being taken, the flight to quality has artificially driven rates low (bond prices high) and they will fall when the recovery begins. The Federal Reserve will need to eventually raise rates and this will cause the investors in bonds to lose money. Long term the vast debt that we are incurring and I can only come up with one conclusion and Greece is the showing us the way. I am short treasuries via the TBT. This is costing me a fortune to maintain. Muni bonds These instruments are getting potentially very dangerous Warren Buffet has been exiting these instruments and not will to take the risks involved with Muni bonds. Taxes are going to go up and people are going to want to shelter income, tax free bonds are going to go up. I am thinking about buying some Muni bonds now and selling them when 2011 arrives. If you need tax free income this is one of your few options and its a nice place to keep short term funds in lieu of cash in the bank. Long term these bonds will get hit with rising interest rates so the trick to Muni bonds is twofold. First, I look for bonds that arent likely to default. Second, I would not invest in any bonds that have a maturity no longer than 2 years. Muni bonds will have exposure to inflation risk, state and local default and dollar risk. I own the municipal bond fund SHM Corporate Bonds I dont like them out more than a year or two Corporate bonds are likely to get beat up later this year due to taxes increases next year. I plan to avoid them until 2011 and then buy some in my IRA. Another factor to consider is if inflation starts to appear bonds do horribly during inflationary time and I suspect inflation will appear in the next couple of years. Something one could consider is buy corporate bonds and selling (shorting) Treasuries. This would offer some protection from inflation and likely to yield a decent return under most circumstances but this idea isnt very viable without a significant amount of cheap leverage. Financial stocks I still think that it still is too risky I was tempted by Goldman Sachs (GS) and I bought a very small position. I will be buying more over the next year. Gold I fundamentally dont like holding gold because it doesnt produce any wealth, in fact, usually you generally need to pay someone to hold it for you (safety deposit box) or at least have some insurance to protect from theft. Most other investments produce some sort of economic activity and generates some revenue, while gold just sits there. What I like about gold is that it is a reasonable store of value during times of turmoil. Also most of the easy to find gold has been already been mined and as it has become more difficult to extract each year. As third world countries become richer they tend to also want to buy some of this shinny metal. Demand for this product will continue to increase as more people around the globe are able to afford more luxury items. I believe that gold is in the process of forming a bubble but the bubble is just beginning. I think it will likely go over 1500/oz in the next couple of years. My experience is that things to tend to go on much longer than I expect so with this mind my target $1800/oz. I reluctantly am investing in gold and platinum while I am also considering buying some gold mining stocks for the longer term. I like mines more from a philosophical basis because at least gold mines have creates some economic activity besides storage fees. I own physical gold and get in and out of the gold fund GLD Inflation I dont expect inflation until the recovery takes hold, once unemployment starts to drop and the economic system becomes stable there are trillions of excess dollars that will need to be mopped up by the Federal Reserve. Inflations will show its head slowly at first and then should spin up rapidly soon after that. In times of inflation the dollar and all US dominated bonds will fall in value while stocks, commodities, gold, real estate, and all other assets will rise. Oil/Energy Oil will likely fall until this mess in European gets straightened out. I have sold most of my oil related stocks. With these thoughts in mind I hold small positions in the Canadian oil company Suncor (SU) that harvests oil from tar sands. Domestic Stocks I prefer stocks that have exposure to the emerging markets and dont depend as much or Europe or the US. International tech companies seem to be a better play. We are in a falling stock market and I plan to hold off buying stocks until the DJIA is below 9000. I will be buying tech and pharmaceuticals when I start buying. Chinese and Emerging markets I am still a believer that these markets will drive the world economy over the next 50 years. I will be investing there based upon these beliefs. I am waiting for a major pullback to buy. This and energy is where most of my money will be invested for the foreseeable future. I have small quantities of IIF and VNM and waiting to buy the FXI. Summary of Mark(et) Economic Indicators GDP Growth The economy seems to be stabilizing and likely to expand this year Unemployment Unemployment is very High Federal Reserve Bias Low rates are good for the market Inflation Currently we are not experiencing inflation or deflation Consumer Spending This indicator remains weak but stable Corporate profits Growth Rate I expect earnings growth to be up >20% this year Real Estate Market Housing prices are stabilizing; interest rates are low Budget Deficit Disastrous Dollar short term safe haven Volatility Index Down from high but rising rapidly in response to Europe debt issues Technical Indicators These technical indicators have are negative for all stocks and oil while strong for owning the US dollars, Yen, gold and US Debt. Liquidity This indicator has improved significantly but is deteriorating again So What is the Plan? I am holding ~60% cash and I am overall short the stock market via the double short S&P 500 (SDS). I still have small stock positions, short some treasuries, and short the Euro. I plan to wait to buy stocks until the DJIA is below 9000 but dont believe it will go below 8000. Yes, I expect the DJIA to drop at least another 15% or so. I still do not see myself becoming a committed investor this year but I will want wait until 2011 to see how the increase in taxes changes the market. I think by the middle of 2011 the market will create investment opportunities. The Euro is in real trouble due to the deficits of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain). Again, I shall not invest in anything denominated in Euros for the foreseeable future. Europe could sink the recovery. The US has demonstrated its dependency on credit and if we add in the fact that we have a growing budget/dollar time bomb, it still brings me back to the same theme that I have had since the first issue of this report. With my long term view on global macroeconomics and my view of the US macroeconomics of the US debt, in the long run, when I begin investing again I will have no choice but to invest outside of the US, minimizing my exposure to the US dollar and especially avoiding dollar denominated US government bonds Chapter 4 Domestic Watch List Short term cash Barclays Short-Term Municipal Bond ETF Symbol SHM Sector Municipal Bonds Risk Low Return Very Low Time Horizon Short Term 1 -12 months Technical Rating +77% Tax implications Federal Tax Free Account(s) Taxable accounts ONLY!!!! This year I will instead of using SHY will be using Barclays Short-Term Muni Bond Fund (SHM). I expect that these types of instruments are going to get very popular once taxes go up. It currently has a 2.0% Federal tax free yield. Precious Metals Gold Symbol GLD Sector Precious Metal Risk Moderate Return Moderate + Time Horizon Medium term (3 months 60 months) Technical rating +40% Tax implications Long term capital gain rate of 15% does not apply to this ETF. Long term capital gains rate for this security is 28% Account(s) IRA; short term taxed What this ETF does is allows you to buy gold as if were a stock. Each share that you hold is equivalent to owning a 1/10th of an ounce of gold. The gold is stored in a bank vault in Great Britain. Gold has always been a currency of safety and I believe world demand for this metal is only going to go up as the world gets richer. Also as the US dollar falls gold will tend to go up. I believe that gold will be $1500 per ounce within the next few years. Some other stocks that I will buy after the major stock market drop this fall. Drugs: AMGN, BMY, MRK, PFE Tobacco: BT, MO, PM Oil/minerals: CVX, DO, FCX, RTP, SNP, OIH Tech: INTC Banks: GS, RY Food: YUM Chapter 5 International Watch List 2010 Consensuses Economic Growth Forecast by Country China8.6%Chile3.5%United States2.7%Japan1.5%India6.3%Thailand3.3%Russia2.5%Argentina1.4%Egypt4.5%South Africa3.1%Canada2.4%United Kingdom1.3%Indonesia4.5%Turkey3.0%Israel2.4%France1.3%Malaysia3.9%Mexico3.0%Pakistan2.4%European Union1.2%Singapore3.8%South Korea 2.8%Sweden1.9%Italy0.9%Brazil3.8%Hong Kong2.7%Poland1.9%Spain-0.1%Taiwan3.5%Australia2.7%Germany1.6%Venezuela-3.4%International Investments to watch Market Vectors Vietnam ETF Symbol VNM Sector International ETF Risk High (Speculative) Return Very High Time Horizon Very Long term (10+ years) Technical Rating -72% Tax implications Consult tax advisor Account(s) Taxed I have talked in the past of wanting to invest in Vietnam; the great thing about our financial market is if you wait someone will create an ETF that you want. I found this ETF and dont know much about it but a bought a small position so that I will check on it every few months or so. My strategy is to set it and forget it If it drops below $20 I will sell it if it goes above $30 I will buy more. The timing to buy this now looks awful as do the technicals but its something that I am going to keep in the back of my mind and revisit this fall. Market Vectors Russia ETF Symbol RSX Sector International ETF Risk High Return High+ Time Horizon Long term Technical Rating -80% Tax implications Consult tax advisor Account(s) Taxed Russia apparently understands tax policy better than the idealist in charge of U.S. tax policy. Not only does Russia have a 13 percent flat tax, but the government just announced it will eliminate the capital gains tax. As a capitalist I will tend to invest in capitalism. Why are these communist (China) countries such capitalist? Because they know capitalism is the only means to achieve superior economic prowess to be a world power, poor countries do not any influence the world stage. Clearly Russia wants to maintain status as a world power and China wants to achieve that status. Capitalism is the only way to achieve that goal. Currently I am not a buyer at this time since I expect a bear market that will cause oil to fall. This ETF has much of its assets geared toward oil and commodities. Longer term once the inflation begins this could potentially be a very good play. IIF/IFN India Closed End Funds (CEF) Symbol IIF/IFN IFN Sector International CEF International CEF Risk High High Return Very High Very High Time Horizon Long term (10+ years) Long term (10+ years) Technical Rating -56% -16% Premium (Discount) (10.2%) (9.2%) Tax implications Consult tax advisor Consult tax advisor Account(s) Taxed/IRA Taxed/IRA I am back to 2 of my old favorites closed end funds. They seem to be a little less volatile these days and since the country was already screwed up by its Marxist leanings the economic crisis is having less of an impact them than other more developed countries. I wont forget for a moment that if the world equity markets gets hammered this CEF will drop like a rock. 20 years from now India will be an economic power house on par with the US. Just a reminder that a CEF is a like a mutual fund but trades as a stock. Due to this fact a CEF can trade to a premium or a discount to the breakup value of the fund. As always I always prefer to buy things that are discounted such as these are now. Chapter 6 Advanced Options Strategies Taxable Dividends to Capital Gains Conversation As we all know taxes on dividends are going up next year and more than doubling for those with higher end incomes. Also, because of the market crash many people have a large capital losses carried forward since tax laws only allow people to deduct $3000 of stock losses each year from other income. I was thinking about this issue and got an idea on how I may be able effectively convert those dividends into capital gains. This strategy is beneficial to me because I have large tax losses that get carried forward each year and I would like to do what I can to utilize those deferred losses as fast as possible against current income. Since the price of the options factor in the current stock HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/07/options_beat_market.asp" \t "_blank"price, the HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/intrinsicvalue.asp"intrinsic value, HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expirationdate.asp"time to expiration, stock HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volatility.asp"volatility, HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/interestrate.asp"interest rates and HYPERLINK "http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cashdividend.asp" dividends paid. Using options I could effectively own a stock without actually owning it Assume: There is a stock someone wants to own that has a relatively high dividend. They have a large stock losses carried forward or in a high tax bracket. They have the money available and want to invest in a particular stock or ETF. The stock has an options market that goes out a year or more and is very liquid. They would sell a put and buy a call at the same strike price and same expiration. Hold the cash value of a stock transaction in the same account until the expiry. Why? The dividends reduce the value of the call therefore the call is cheaper than the put value. The difference between the put and call is approximately the dividends to expiration. No actual dividends are received but they are used to factor in the price of the option. The value of the dividend is actually delivered up front as part of the options payments. If these options expire after a year then all benefits are treated as long term gain You will also collect interest (taxed at normal income rate) on the money held in account Risks: Poor discipline, you may be tempted to use cash reserves for other purpose Comprehension risk, this is too complicated for the typical/passive investor Margin risks, without sufficient cash reserves you could get a margin call or liquated No guarantee that you the stock will go up, if stock goes down you lose value This strategy will be difficult to get out of cleanly on short notice. Execution risk, very diligent execution will be required to make this work Friction risk, expensive to get into and out of due to large bid ask spreads and broker fees Exercise risk, I need to remember to execute before expiry or risk significant value loss Tax risk, Im not sure if the IRS would agree with my view on this idea Benefits: No dividend income, all gains/losses are taxed as capital gains Equivalent dividends are paid up front and not taxed until options are liquated If I were to buy a call and sell a put at the same strike price I would have little to no out of pocket expense but I have a very large leveraged (dangerous) position. It is very important for me to hold in cash a total amount of money equal to the put strike price multiplied by the number of shares for each and every share. To avoid unintentional leverage, the cash reserves must not be shared by other investments/strategies. Example: I chose Phillip Morris (MO) for its high dividend in this example. When I checked the market this stock was at 19.78 and I was interested in the January 2012 options with a $20 strike. The January 2012 $20 put could be sold for $3.50/share and the same strike/expiry call could be bought for $1.70. Selling the put and buying the call nets me $1.80 ($3.50-$1.70) and that premium is received immediately. The expected dividend for MO is $2.10 over the next 18 months. I must also factor in the fact that the put is $.22 in the money at the time of sale so after taking out this $.22 this gives only gives me a net proceeds of $1.58 vs. the expected dividend of $2.10/share. At first glance, it looks like you get ripped off for $.52/share On the face of it this does not seem like a good deal but we also need to look at that I effectively own the stock without a cash outlay. I need to figure in the interest that I would collect on the $1.58 that I received and the $19.78 that I didnt pay to effectually own the stock. Using an interest rate of 1.6% APR for 18 months on $21.36 gives you about $.52/share, how bizarre. Its almost like the market is efficient! For each 100 share block (options only trade in 100 share blocks) I would need to keep $2000 in the same account as the options because of the $20 strike. In January 2012 if the price dropped you be obligated to buy the shares for $20 (unless you buy the option back before expiry). If the stock goes up you have the option of buying the stock at $20/share or selling the option. Tax consequences (options bought before expiry): Stock drops below $18.20 I would incur more capital losses If the stock was at $10 on expiry, I buy the options back for a loss of $8.20/share I could use this loss to offset other gains or more losses carried forward Stock closes above $18.20 you would incur a net capital gain If the stock closes at $30 I would get net capital gains of $11.80/share In my situation, I wouldnt pay any taxes and it reduce my losses carried forward I pay marginal tax rate on the interest I made on the $20 held in cash If I were to just own the stock, this year I would pay income tax at 15% on the dividends and next year I would pay taxes on dividends at the marginal income tax rate. As the stock rose or fell I wouldnt have a gain or loss until the stock is sold. Options are not taxed right away if they were used to buy a stock. If I write a put and gets exercised or buy a call and use it to buy a stock then the option premium is used to adjust the cost basis of underlying stock. The money received from the options isnt taxed in this case until he stock is sold. If the option is closed via transaction then it taxed like a regular stock transaction. Chapter 7 Marks Model ETF Portfolio Asset reallocation Composition for portfolios risk profile InvestmentRisk AdverseBalancedGrowthAggressiveUS Large Cap:20%30%40%30%US Small Cap:10%10%20%30%International:10%20%30%40%Fixed Income:50%35%10%0%Cash:10%5%0%0% Composition of each investment type US Large Cap: SPDR S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) 33% NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) 33% Vanguard Value VIPERs (VTV) 33% US Small Cap: iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) 100% International: iShares MSCI EAFA Europe, Australia and Far East Index Fund (EFA) 50% iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) 50% Fixed Income (Bonds): iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) 25% iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF) 25% iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG) 25% iShares GS $ InvesTop Corp Bond (LQD) 25% Cash: iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury bond (SHY) 100% Year to Date Returns Name Symbol12/31/09 Price6/30/10 PriceYTD Gain % w/o DivYTD Gain % w/ DivSPDR S&P Depository ReceiptsSPY$111.44$103.22-7.38%-6.90%NASDAQ 100 Trust SharesQQQQ$45.75$42.71-6.64%-6.34%DIAMONDS TrustDIA$104.07$97.73-6.09%-5.20%Vanguard Value VIPERsVTV$47.75$44.64-6.51%-5.30%iShares Russell 2000 IndexIWM$62.44$61.12-2.11%-1.84%iShares MSCI EAFAEFA$55.28$46.51-15.86%-15.86%iShares MSCI Emerging MarketsEEM$41.50$37.32-10.07%-10.07%iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury TLT$89.89$101.7513.19%14.97%iShares Lehman 7-10 Year TreasuryIEF$88.60$95.677.98%9.45%iShares Lehman Aggregate BondAGG$103.19$107.253.93%5.49%iShares GS $ InvesTop CorpLQD$104.15$108.464.14%6.31%iShares Lehman 1-3 Year TreasurySHY$82.96$84.121.40%1.87% Results for the various autopilot portfolios Risk AdverseBalancedGrowthAggressiveYTD 10 Return2.05%-1.30%-5.73%-7.52%09 Return11.14%19.65%31.48%36.54%08 Return -8.18%-18.66%-33.90%-39.60%07 Return7.82%9.40%10.04%10.45%06 Return9.72%13.63%19.09%21.83%05 Return5.49%7.55%9.73%11.77%Total since inception29.96%28.43%17.81%14.70% Bonds were a clear winner this time around. In my personal portfolio I am short bonds and lost money in that category. International stocks got hit hard along with US stocks. Chapter 8 Final Thoughts The Good Interest rates are low Asias economy seems robust and growth is real World GDP is projected to be positive in 2010 New innovations and new efficiencies are creating new wealth daily The Bad High US unemployment Higher taxes in 2011 on capital/production Government diverting resources from production and giving it to nonproduction Health care reform (more taxes on production more resources to consumption) Hostile business environment Housing crisis not over; large segment of population with mortgages and no jobs Political class that believes that redistribution of wealth is a means of creating it The Ugly The European debt spiral has begun with some sovereign debt now rated as junk Exploding US budget deficit/national debt with risk of debt spiral Potential for US bonds may be downgraded California and other state/local governments debt situation The US Social Security time bomb Looming long term devaluation of the US dollar Final thoughts: I reluctantly condoned of the risky action that the Federal Reserve has taken with monetary policy since these actions has probably saved the credit market from a total collapse but I do not approve of the current spending philosophies or the expansion of government or other foolishness of our government. I believe that these philosophies and general contempt for capital are making things worst and are prolonging the recession. We are seeing in Europe what eventually happens when a society borrows and spends more than it can produce, we got a taste of that in the housing market but homeowner and banks were bailed out by the government The EU is bailing out Greece its only a matter of time before the same events that are occurring in Europe occur here in the US, except no one is going to be able to be able to come to the rescue of the US Treasury. Dollar devaluation will be the only viable solution to the forthcoming US debt crisis. I hate all bonds especially US Government Bonds for the long term! I am currently short bonds by owning the double reverse bond ETF TBT. It was my investment pick of the year and has performed dreadfully. As the Greek debt situation materialized; people rushed into US bonds causing the bonds to run up and loosing me a lot of money. In essence people have abandoned a sinking Greek sailboat to come aboard the relatively dry USS Titanic. I have reduced my position so I can try again another day. This strategy will not likely work this year and my idea should be put on hold until at least 2011. I dont like investing in stocks at this point We may be on the verge of a double dip recession fueled by European debt crisis and Chinese housing market bubble bursting. Right now everyone around the world is running scared and buying dollars and gold. Gold is a truly silly item to investment in for a modern economy but for now it is working. I will continue to hold dollars and gold assuming that safety herd mentality to survive until sometime next year. Gold may go over $1500/oz by next year this time. Longer term, investment in tangible income producing items will be the only way to conserve capital. I now own a home with a 30 year fixed mortgage and shall not buy a home in Baltimore. I havent own a home in 7 years and forgot how much time and money one of these things are but I am happy with my little log home in the mountains of West Virginia. I have much more to say but many of my musing are going to have to wait for another day, luckily we can always thank the politicians and the markets for always giving me something new to write about. This is the conclusion of my report, I hope to get the next report out by October 3rd, 2010 and entertain you with my new thoughts and reflections. Please send any questions, comments or topic ideas for future issues to me via email. GOOD LUCK!!! Regards, Mark Rush HYPERLINK "mailto:redgroup2@yahoo.com"redgroup2@yahoo.com     Copyright 2010 by Mark A. Rush  "#-./UVWjkmnvx¾¥œxʾfWE"hFmhC5>*CJOJQJaJhC5>*CJOJQJaJ"hFmhC5>*CJOJQJaJhThC5CJ,H*aJ,+jh$EhC5CJ,UaJ,mHnHuhC5CJ aJ h9 hC0J5CJ aJ jhUhCjhCUhC5CJ,aJ,hthC5CJ,aJ,hyhCCJ(aJ(hC5CJ4aJ4hthC5CJ4aJ4 #$.lmop~ ] ^ g gd\Dgd\Dgdf gd4agd4$a$gdT$a$gdd8As/ \ v    1 / 7 ? F G J X Z h q . 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