ࡱ> QSPrM qbjbj== "WWlOl":::Nbbb8,<N( NWsR(T(T(T(T(T(T($* ,zx(:3 x(O::(OOO::R(OR(OO":',::R( PakN b' R((0((Rm--"m-R(ONN::::System Dynamics Origins, development, and future prospects of a method Victor Tang1 and Samudra Vijay2 Introduction In this paper, we first introduce and define system dynamics (SD) as a method, explore its relationship to the feedback and control systems, and then trace the history and origin of SD. Thereafter we discuss SD as a methodology and suggest its place in the matrix of principles, methods and tools. We also discuss some examples and applications of the SD methodology, and highlight its ability to simulate complex socio-economic and management systems by elaborating examples, such as Peoples Express. Next, we trace the journey of conceptual development of the systems approach and its logical development from systems engineering to the SD. We conclude by saying that SD has evolved as a powerful tool but of late its growth has been horizontal, and not vertical. A major conceptual breakthrough is needed to realize its full potential. System Dynamics is a method that extends beyond conventional domain of systems approach to large-scale complex engineering problems. SD deals with interaction of various elements of a system in time and captures the dynamic aspect by incorporating concepts such as stock, flows, feedback and delays, and thereby provides an insight into the dynamic behavior of system over time. As a knowledge domain, SD can be thought of as a logical extension of systems engineering (SE) and systems analysis (SA). SD explicitly takes into account the dynamic behavior that results due to delays and feedbacks in the system. Jay W. Forrester, Management professor at the MIT/Sloan School is considered to be the father of this new approach to understand and solve the problems in the business and social science domains. SD had significant intellectual impact worldwide. Most noted and controversial application of SD is the development of world models, World2 and World3, which were published in World Dynamics (1971) and in The Limits to Growth (1972) respectively. Although the World models using system dynamics attracted severe criticism from a very wide spectrum of disciplines, government and academia, they were successful in bringing some of the very vital challenges and issues being faced by mankind to the forefront of academic and political thought process. System dynamics as a method has been successfully applied in a wide variety of business and socio-economic fields to understand the problems and gain an insight into various policy interventions. We believe that SD is a powerful tool that could be applied successfully to a wide variety of problems, but development of SD needs a breakthrough to move further from where it stands today. History and Origins Jay W. Forrester, the father of system dynamics, joined MIT as a graduate student in the Electrical engineering department, and was employed by Gordon S. Brown, as research assistant in the newly found servomechanisms laboratory in 1940. During World War II, he designed and developed servomechanisms for control of radar antennas, gun mounts and other military equipments. During this period he extensively used the mathematical theory of controls and concepts of feedback and stability in real life engineering applications. Thereafter he led the design and development of the Whirlwind I, the first digital computer designed at the MIT Digital Computer Laboratory. Thereafter he headed the Division 6 of the Lincoln Laboratory, which designed computers for the SAGE (Semi-Automatic Ground Environment) air defense system for North America. SAGE is one of the prominent examples of a large-scale complex engineering system. The experience in managing large scale research projects dealing with complex engineering systems had a profound impact in shaping Forresters systems thinking. Forrester joined the MIT Sloan School of management in 1956, where he laid the foundation of system dynamics, a method to understand the dynamic behavior of various business related issues and problems. He came across a problem faced by the household appliance plant of General Electric (GE) in Kentucky. Management at the plant was unable to understand the fluctuations in the demand. Forrester started thinking of this problem in terms of the feedback loops to simulate the plant inventory and that first inventory control system with pencil and paper simulation was the beginning of system dynamics (Forrester, 1991). He further extended the use of system dynamics in the field of business management and formally articulated the SD methodology in his book Industrial Dynamics, published in 1961. Meetings and discussion with former Boston mayor and then visiting professor at the MIT led to extension of the SD method to understand the urban housing problem in the Boston Metro area. This resulted in publication of his next book Urban Dynamics, using system dynamics methodology in the arena of social sciences. His conclusion from modeling the urban behavior was that the most damaging policy was to build low-cost housing. Such a striking conclusion obviously had very strong moral, ethical and political dimensions. This evoked very strong emotional response. He argues that the land used for creating low-cost housing curtails the availability of land for more productive and job creating structures, such as businesses, and at the same time it also draws in more people, leading to a vicious cycle of unemployment and greater need for low-cost housing. Notwithstanding the criticism, SD as a methodology moved on under the guidance and leadership of Forrester. From Urban Dynamics to The Limits of Growth In 1970, Jay Forrester was invited to attend a meeting of the Club of Rome, a group of intellectuals from various countries, who were trying to find a solution to the predicament of mankind. Forresters discussions with the Club of Rome became the basis of the first comprehensive model of the world based on system dynamics. World Dynamics, his book describing the world model, published in 1971, was well received, severely criticized, and widely circulated around the world. Nine months later, a team of researchers at MIT, under the leadership of Dennis Meadows further refined the SD model of the world and presented the results from the refined model (world3) in the book called The Limits to Growth. The Limits to Growth attracted severe criticism on accounts of its predictions and methodology both. Many books and articles published criticizing the inappropriateness of the method and unacceptability of the results published in the book. SD has been slowly and steadily growing since then, and had been applied to a very wide variety of problems successfully. MIT Sloan School has led the growth and spread of SD as a methodology to attack business related problems such as inventory, business cycle etc. Its growth has been mostly confined to the solving of management and policy related problems. Today, many management schools around the world offer courses in the field of SD. System Dynamics as a Method It is important that System Dynamics be properly as a method. Sterman (2000) writes, system dynamics is a perspective and set of conceptual tools that enable us to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems. System Dynamics is also a rigorous modeling method that enables us to build formal computer simulations of complex systems and use them to design more effective policies and organizations. Simply stated, System Dynamics is a method. A method, that permits the analyst to decompose a complex social or behavioral system into its constituent components and then integrate them into a whole that can be easily visualized and simulated. The example (slide1, page 4) in the following page vividly demonstrates this point. It shows that as Peoples Express fleet expanded, the passengers carried increased requiring more rookies to be hired. Unfortunately, inexperienced rookies lowered service quality, which caused Peoples express to increase marketing expense to sustain customer satisfaction. A well-intended policy created unintended negative consequences. This emergent system effect is clearly illustrated visually (slide 4, page 4). Moreover, the power of its simulation capabilities are demonstrated by the sample graphs that show the behavior of two key system parameters customers perceived quality and the countermeasures from competitors. Professor Ed Crawley, head of the Aero/Astro Systems Department, separates three distinct characteristics of the systems: principles, methods, and tools. To illustrate the point, we juxtapose System Dynamics against some other well-known systems (slide 11, page 5). The principles of System Dynamics are predicated on two major systems principles. [1] The first is that stocks, flows, and delays determine system behavior. This is readily observed in everyday life. Water flows through pipes and they accumulate in reservoirs, tubs, and other containers. Water gets warm slowly after the hot water tap is turned on. Current flows through conductors, capacitors are charged, and their charge decays exponentially. It took a leap of ingenuity and imagination for Forrester to conceptualize analogous behavior in social systems and behavioral systems. [2] The second is bounded rationality (Simon 1957). Simon uses the metaphor of a pair of scissors, where one blade is the cognitive limitations and the other the structure of the environment. System dynamics does not pretend to address all the variables of a problem, rather concentrates on the ones that are key to the problem and its context, i.e., the environment as defined by the analyst. System Dynamics does not pretend to optimize, but to satisfice by means of fast and frugal rules that the analyst is able to capture by its understanding of the problem (Gigerenzer and Selten 2000).  EMBED PowerPoint.Show.8  EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8   EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  Applications of System Dynamics System Dynamics has been deployed in a very wide variety of applications. We will illustrate only a few examples that we consider representative of the power and versatility of System Dynamics. Portfolio Simulation. A well-known portfolio model is the 2x2 BCG model, which has relative market share on the x-axis and market growth on the y-axis. The model separates business units into cash cows, dogs, stars, and question marks. BCG prescribes a set of competitive business policies; such as milking cash cows to fund stars to create the future cash cows, etc. The BCG model is static and omits feedback in its policy formulations. The System Dynamics model of Mertern, Lffler, and Wiedmann (1987) introduces dynamics into the static BCG model and identifies its fatal flaws. They show how and why the BCG policy fails when competitors adopt atypical responses. System Dynamics shows the dynamic competitive behavior of firms, rather than simple static representations. Product Development. There are important factors that determine the quality of a product and a teams the ability to meet schedules. A critical issue is the race between completing the work that needs to be done, fixing known problems and unanticipated problems. The other critical issue is the interactions between process and physical structures such as manufacturing. The crux of the issue is the different time-constants for improvements to reach steady state, shorter for manufacturing, longer for product development. Repenning and Sterman (1997) using System Dynamics are able to show that the asynchronicity of these processes lead to dysfunctional organizational performance. Supply Chain. The volatility of a business supply chain is the bane of every firm. They are either consistently short of inventory, or they have an overabundance sitting in warehouses. This is particularly acute when there are multiple stages in the supply chain. Using mathematical functions, the solution to this problem is unwieldy. With System Dynamics the problem is much more readily solvable. The levels of inventory at each stage of the supply chain, and its dynamic behavior can be simulated with great precision (Sterman 2000). A more rigorous approach to the System Dynamics applications should use a meta-analysis of the published literature. But in the limited format of this report, the table below is illustrative of the wide range of applications (slide 9, this page).   EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  Conceptual Developments of System Dynamics We argue that System Dynamics represents a step in the progression of the field of systems thinking. [See illustration below]. This progression begins with Systems Engineering, moves to Systems Analysis, then to System Dynamics. Major phase transitions punctuate the growth from one stage to the next. We will address the conceptual foundations, technology, and communities of practice that have propelled this evolution. Carlile (2000, 2001) points out knowledge is invested in practice and the successes that demonstrate the value of the knowledge developed. For these reasons we will identify the communities of practice and what our readings suggest were their principal motivations. By extrapolating these three vectors into qualitatively new directions and by discussing the resultant phase transitions, we will venture a hypothesis of the next stage to follow System Dynamics (slide 10, this page).  EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  Systems engineering had its roots in MIT (Hughes 1998, Hughes and Hughes 2000). We consider SAGE to be the exemplar of systems engineering. The goal was the air defense of the United States. The instrument of defense was a massive system of radars, anti aircraft guns, and computers all networked so that it would operate as a purposeful system. The engineering challenge was to construct the system and operate it. The engineering team had substantial experience in servomechanisms acquired during WW II to build such a system from the bottoms-up. The community of practice was engineers, and the institutions that employed them were organizations in the military-industrial-university complex. Our class readings suggest that their core motivations were problem solving to meet important and urgent national objectives. Systems Analysis represents the next wave of growth. Systems engineering migrates or spreads (Hughes 1998) into the civilian sector and industry. Now, the systems have less to do with artifacts created by engineers, but more to do with strategy, policy, and organizational control by means of the systems discipline. It is important to note, however, that systems as artifacts grew in size, scope and complexity so they performed large-scale functions in the civilian sector. Examples of these include the ESS#5 computer controlled telephone switching system, and the large private data networks of large global enterprises. However in terms of societal impact, the migration of systems into the civilian and industrial sectors for strategy and policy were the more seminal events. The exemplars of this spread include McNamara and the Whiz kids at the Ford Motor Company, where by implementation of systems analysis, they centralized control and accrued unprecedented power. McNamaras tenure in the DOD and transplanting his favorite control and power accrual mechanism, PPB (planning, programming, budgeting) to the Pentagon, accelerated this migration. RAND, a think tank with its economists, mathematicians relentlessly pushed the intellectual envelope of systems analysis into policy and strategy. Johnsons War on Poverty created new opportunities for RAND and system analysts to spread their dogma. It appears that systems analysis became a practice, as well as a means to accrue control and power. Elitism began to creep into systems analysis. Computers, sophisticated software and large communications networks fueled and turbocharged the spread system analysis into industry, government and the civilian sectors. Forrester, with his vast experience and knowledge of systems and his prodigious ability to invent and reconceptualize ideas into more innovative and creative concepts, invents system dynamics. Boldly, he applies it to major and highly visible national and global issues in the domain of social and behavioral science. His models draw immediate attention and substantial criticisms from many directions. Regardless of the merits or praise from his detractors or admirers, Forrester had decisively migrated systems analysis into the realm of social sciences. We believe that he made a significant contribution in popularizing and democratizing systems. The communities of practice now include academic researchers, business and strategy analysts in industry, and consultants. These ideas are summarized below (slide 19, this page).  EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  Recent Conceptual Developments In this section we discuss some leading indicators that are potential signals that could tell us the new directions of the next stage of systems concepts. There are two papers in System Dynamics that have been published recently that, in our opinion, are worthy of note. In addition, there are developments in computing that are sufficiently dramatic that they could also potentially be another source of fuel that will drive the next stage of systems thinking. The first leading indicator is a paper by Coyle (2000). It is significant because it is indicative of a shift in thinking. This paper represents a shift from the dominance of quantitative analysis towards qualitative analysis. This is consistent with Forrester (1975) where he writes, there is a sharp distinction between the exact and the social sciences exactness and accuracy must be measured not in terms of the number of decimal digits, and accuracy must be achieved before precision is useful. Coyles writes in his paper: The tradition, one might call it the orthodoxy, in system dynamics is that a problem can only be analyzed, and policy guidance given, through the aegis of a fully quantified model. This article briefly reviews that debate and then discusses some of the problems and risks sometimes involved in quantification. Those problems are exemplified by an analysis of a particular model, which turns out to bear little relation to the real problem it purported to analyze. Some qualitative models are then reviewed to show that they can, indeed, lead to policy insights and five roles for qualitative models are identified. Finally a research agenda is proposed to determine the wide balance between qualitative and quantitative models. One of the most interesting examples discussed by Coyle is the demise of the Mayan population, where he shows that the quantitative results of the models defy logic; but that the logic of the model is plausible and assists in deepening understanding. The second paper is by Hines and House (2001) on the subject of policy formation that is consistent with what is known about evolutionary processes and what is known about human psychology. What is remarkable about this paper is that the authors use concepts from biology find analogs for organizational learning and behavior. They use the notion of mutation and recombination in their investigation. We think this is important because it signals another qualitative shift in systems thinking. The sources of analogy for systems thinking are including biology. The authors state, As in every systems stage of the past, there are nascent technologies that will fuel and propel current systems thinking into the next stage. Lohr (2001) in his column in the New York Times reports on Paul Horns (IBM VP for Research) computing vision of autonomic systems. In the same vein as Hines and House (2001), Horn reports on work that IBM is doing on systems whose analogs are biological, genetic and metabolic. These systems will be highly adaptive, capable of learning, and self-organization. Elsewhere, Horn (1999) reports on the dramatic technological progress that is abetting this kind of new thinking. For example, in 1940 it took 109 joules to process one computer operation. In 1990, that took only 10-3 joules, an improvement factor of 1012. Similarly, in 1960 it took 1018 atoms to store one bit of information, in 1990 that took only 109 atoms. Elsewhere1 IBM reports that it is developing a computer system with one million processors that are capable of processing concurrently. This system is 1000 times more powerful than the Deep Blue that defeated Kasparov in a celebrated and visible chess match. It processes 109 instructions per second, and processes 8x106 threads concurrently versus the maximum of 5000 today. IBM reports that a chain saw can cut through the system, but it will continue to run and repair the applications that are damaged by this destructive physical act. Putting all these ideas together, we hypothesize that the next stage of systems thinking will resemble autonomic systems (slide 14, this page).  EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  Summary and Conclusions System Dynamics is an effective and useful method for the analysis of complex systems, integrating the subsystems and parts into a whole, which can then be simulated to develop insight into its dynamic behavior. Even without simulation, the causal diagrams improve the understanding of the structure and the key determinants of system behavior. Forrester states, System dynamics can provide a dynamic framework to give meaning to detailed facts, source of information, and human response. Such a dynamic framework provides a common foundation beneath mathematics, physical sciences, social studies, biology, history and even literature. But System Dynamics is not without strong critics from many quarters. One strong criticism is that the early models of System Dynamics have not stood the test of time, and have failed in their predictive powers. In the realm of social sciences, we2 believe that this is a specious argument. (Although we unconditionally agree that prediction is the sine qua non for the physical sciences.) It is important to separate analysis/decisions from results. The following is a simple example to illustrate the point. Bet $1.00 on a fair coin toss. Gain $2.50 if call tails and tails come up. Gain $1.50 if call heads and heads come up. Otherwise, there is no pay-off. As rational beings, we would bet on tails since it has a higher pay-off. However, having made such an analysis and decided on tails, it is possible that heads comes up, and we lose the bet. Question: was the decision a bad one? Not at all, good decisions can have bad outcomes. We believe that it is more meaningful to debate the issues and gain a deeper understanding of the problem that argue the merits of prediction. No one can predict the future. Another strong criticism is the omission of key variables in the early Forrester models in Urban Dynamics, and The Limits to Growth. It is safe to say that no model can include all the variables that would make the representation closed and complete. The very notion of a model is simplification and abstraction. Undoubtedly, the omission of important technological change variables in Forresters early models presented an incomplete view of the problem. Furthermore, the omission of important social variables, we believe is a serious defect, particularly in social science. The mitigating factor, however, is that the very existence of the model with all its flaws was able to surface meaningful debate of the problem that was studied. We believe that it is through rational debate that a deeper understanding is developed and how methodologies improve. We believe that in these situations it is useful to ask: suppose we include variables x, y, and z, and extend the system boundaries thus and so, what new insight can we get? Deming is attributed with saying, All models are flawed, some are useful. We agree. Another criticism is the arrogance and hubris in which the results were perceived to have been presented. This is a stylistic issue. We find this beyond our means to address. It is fair to say that in any circumstance, it is always appropriate to have some humility and conservatism in ones claims. System Dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. However, this is horizontal growth, where the method is applied more widely. But, in our opinion with limited research and investigation, there are few and rare exceptions in new breakthrough thinking. We believe that System Dynamics needs another Forrester to drive its next stage of conceptualization where it will be able to solve even more intractable problems. There are some indicators where these breakthroughs may come from, and we anticipate them eagerly. References Carlile, P.R., 2000. A Pragmatic View of Knowledge and Boundaries: Boundary Objects in New Product Development. Paper Manuscript. MIT Sloan School of Management. Cambridge, MA. Carlile, P.R., E.S. Rebentisch., 2001. Into the Black Box: The Knowledge Transformation Cycle.. Paper Manuscript. MIT Sloan School of Management. Cambridge, MA. Cole, H.S.D., C. Freemam, M. Jahoda, K.L.R. Pavitt, 1973. Models of Doom: A Critique of The Limits to Growth. Universe Books, New York, N.Y. Coyle, G. 1998. The practice of System Dynamics: Milestones, Lessons and Ideas from 30 Years Experience. System Dynamics Review, Vol. 14, No. 4, Winter. Forrester, J.W., 1961. Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Forrester, J.W., 1961. Urban Dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA. Forrester, J.W., 1961. Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Forrester, J.W., 1987. 14 Obvious Truths. System Dynamics Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 156-159. Hazelrigg, G.A., 1996. Systems Engineering: An Approach to Information Based Design. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, N.J. Hines, J., J. House, 2001. The Source of poor Policy: Contolling Learning Drift and Premature Consensus in Human Organizations. System Dynamics Review, Vol. 17, No. 1, Spring. Howard, R.A., 1988. Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise. Management Science, Vol. 34, No. 6, pp.679-695. Hughes, A.C., T.P. Hughes, 2000. Systems, Experts, and Computers: The Systems Approach in Management and Engeneering, WW II and After. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Hughes, T.P., 1998. Rescuing Prometheus: Four Monumental Projects that Changed the Modern World. Vintage Books, New York, N,Y. Gigerenzer, G, R. Selten (editors), 1999. Bounded Rationality. MIT Press, Cambridge, Ma. Horn, P.M., 1999. Information Technology Will Change Everything. Research-Technology Management, Jan-Feb. pp. 42-47. Lohr, S., 2001. New Economy. New York Times, October 15. Merten, P.P., R. Lffler, K.P. Wiedman, 1987. Portfolio Simulation: A Tool to Support Strategic Management. System Dynamics Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, Summer. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens, 1972. The Limits to Growth. Universe Books, New York, N.Y. Repenning, N.P., J.D. Sterman, 1997. Getting Quality the Old Fashioned Way: Self-Conforming Attributions in the Dynamics of Process Development. MIT Sloan School of Management Working Paper. Cambridge, MA. Simon, H.A., 2000. Can There Be a Science of Complex Systems? in Unifying Themes in Complex Systems, edited by Y. Bar-Yam. Perseus Books, Cambridge MA. Sterman, J.D. 2001. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw Hill, Boston, MA. 1 principal author of pages 3.2 to 12. planning was a joint effort. 2 principal author of pages 1 to 3.2. planning was a joint effort. 1 wysiwyg://139/http:/iserver.mkm.can.ibm.cam/headlines/bluegene.html 2 V. 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