ࡱ> q` wbjbjqPqP F::^nޚޚޚ8 "d6Rȟޟޟpv$  5 5 5 5 5 5 5$8h;P15L0@15ޟX6lޟ 5 5R_V,? 8VޚlS( 460d6qn;Jn;<?MVn;L>(Fи< 15158d6$T\$>\   Celestica Inc.(CLS-NYSE)$5.80 Note: All new or revised material since the last update is highlighted. Reason for Report: Minor changes in estimates Previous Ed.: October 30, 2007; 3Q07 Earnings Update Brokers Recommendations: Neutral: 89.5% (17 firms); Negative: 10.5% (2); Positive: 0% (0)Prev. Ed.: 16; 2; 1 Brokers Target Price: $7.01 (! $0.36 from last edition; 13 firms) Broker s Avg. Expected Return: 20.9%  Recent Events On October 25, 2007, CLS announced 3Q07 financial results. Highlights are as follows: Total revenue was $2,080.6 million, down 13.0% y/y, but up 7.4% sequentially. Pro forma EPS was 2Q07 was $0.13, down 29.0% y/y, but up 536.0% sequentially.  Overview Analysts have identified the following key factors for evaluating the investment merits of CLS: Key Positive ArgumentsKey Negative ArgumentsLong-term Model: CLS focuses on high-mix/low-volume horizontal manufacturing, which tends to offer solid long-term returns with a lower risk profile compared to vertical manufacturing. Attractive Growth Strategy: The Company plans to generate growth through incremental outsourcing (with both new and existing customers), additional service offerings primarily within design, configuration, fulfillment, and supply chain management and acquisitions. Long-Term Outsourcing Trend: A powerful trend toward outsourcing manufacturing production by OEMs underlies a long-term positive view of the EMS industry.Customer Concentration: The Company depends heavily on a few customers as it derives approximately 60.0% of revenue from its ten largest customers. Economic Slowdown: A general economic slowdown (globally or in key markets) could have a negative impact on the Companys financial results and cash flow generation. Dependency on End Market: A recovery at CLS is seen as largely dependent upon a steady revival of end markets (such as, communications and high-end IT). Based in Toronto, Canada, Celestica Inc. (CLS or the Company) provides a range of electronics manufacturing services (EMS) in the fields of computing, telecommunications, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial sectors. Through its efficient global manufacturing and supply chain network in Asia, Europe and the Americas, CLS serves companies in the computing, communications, consumer, industrial, and aerospace and defense sectors. CLS supplies products and services to over 160 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including Avaya Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., EMC Corporation, Hewlett-Packard Corporation, IBM Corporation, Lucent Technologies Inc., Motorola Inc., NEC Corporation, and Sun Microsystems Inc. The Companys website is  HYPERLINK "http://www.celestica.com" www.celestica.com. Note: CLSs fiscal year ends on December 31. December 31, 2007  Revenue Provided below is a summary of Revenue as compiled by Zacks Research Digest: Revenue (In $ M)3Q06A2Q07A3Q07A4Q07E2007E1Q08E2008E2009EZacks Consensus$2,099.0 $7,967.0 $1,861.0$8,227.0Digest High$2,392.4 $1,940.0 $2,081.0 $2,200.0 $8,060.0 $2,000.0$8,680.0$9,210.0Digest Low$2,390.0 $1,937.0 $2,080.0 $2,050.0 $7,910.0 $1,800.0$7,925.0$8,528.0Digest Average$2,392.2 $1,937.1 $2,080.6 $2,099.1! $7,957.5! $1,880.6!$8,271.5!$8,867.6!YoY Growth-12.9%-13.0%-7.2%-9.7%2.1%3.9%7.2%Sequential Growth7.6%5.2%7.4%0.9%-10.4%Mgmt. Guidance$2.00B - $2.15B Zacks Digest average 3Q07 revenue was $2,080.6 million, down 13.0% y/y, but up 7.4% sequentially. The sequential increase was attributable to strength within the consumer electronics sector and an improved demand within telecom customers. Revenue was slightly below the consensus estimate of $2,087.0 million, but within managements guidance range of $2,000.0 million to $2,200.0 million. The Companys top-ten customers contributed 62% of sales in 3Q07 versus 64% in 2Q07. Provided below is a summary of Segmental Revenue as compiled by Zacks Research Digest: Revenue Segment (In US$ M)3Q06A2Q07A3Q07A4Q07E2007E1Q08E2008E2009EEnterprise Communications$622.7 $562.5 $541.0 $544.4! $2,236.9! $489.6! $2,094.3! $2,060.0Telecommunications$454.4 $271.9 $332.9 $348.0! $1,193.1! $311.0! $1,343.4! $1,385.2Servers$363.1 $386.5 $374.7 $412.3! $1,504.4! $376.8! $1,659.0! $1,876.7Storage$233.6 $211.5 $208.1 $213.2! $835.1! $201.2! $854.5! $946.4Industrial/Defense/Aerospace$213.9 $155.4 $124.9 $131.0! $559.5! $140.0! $607.6! $752.3Consumer/Auto/Medical$503.9 $349.0 $499.2 $443.6! $1,623.7! $365.4 !$1,815.2! $2,188.9Total Revenue$2,392.2 $1,937.1 $2,080.6 $2,099.1! $7,957.5! $1,880.6!$8,271.5!$8,867.6! Provided below is the graphical representation of Segmental Revenue:   Enterprise Communications (26.0% of total revenue in 3Q07): Revenue in this segment stood at $541.0 million in 3Q07, down 13.1% y/y and 3.8% sequentially, attributable to continued revenue loss from customer disengagement. Telecommunications (16.0% of total revenue in 3Q07): Revenue in this segment stood at $332.9 million in 3Q07, down 26.7% y/y, but up 22.4% sequentially, driven by strong demand from core telecommunications customers. Key customers in this segment include Alcatel-Lucent, Motorola, and Nortel. Servers (18.0% of total revenue in 3Q07): This segment accounted for $374.7 million of total revenue in 3Q07, up 3.2% y/y, but down 3.1% sequentially, attributable to slower over all demand environments. Key customers in this segment include Sun Microsystems (another 10.0%+ customer), IBM, and HP. Storage (10.0% of total revenue in 3Q07): Revenue in this segment stood at $208.1 million in 3Q07, down 10.9% y/y and 1.6% sequentially. Key storage customers include IBM, EMC, Sun, and Hitachi. Industrial/Defense/Aerospace (6.0% of total revenue in 3Q07): Revenue in this segment stood at $124.9 million in 3Q07, down 41.6% y/y and 19.6% sequentially. According to analysts, CLS suffered from customer disengagements in this segment. The key customers in this segment include Raytheon and Honeywell. Consumer/Automotive/Medical (24.0% of total revenue in 3Q07): This segment accounted for $499.2 million of total revenue in 3Q07, down 0.9% y/y, but up 43.0% sequentially. The sequential increase was attributable to the seasonal ramp-up of Microsoft Xbox gaming consoles and market share wins. Outlook Management guided 4Q07 revenue to be in the range of $2.0 billion to $2.15 billion, reflecting continued general unevenness in demand in many end markets, a modest spillover of seasonal consumer demand, and a moderate uptick in IT infrastructure demand. Management expects the Consumer business and Enterprise Communications segment to decline sequentially in 4Q07 One analyst (CIBC) believes that the flat revenue guidance is attributable to lack of visibility across the Companys core markets with limited seasonality and customer disengagements. One analyst (J.P. Morgan) believes that revenue growth would be limited as new programs ramp would be offset by a likely less robust enterprise spending environment into 2008. Another analyst (Longbow) also believes that revenue growth in FY08 is likely to be modest, attributable to uneven end market demand. Another analyst (Jefferies) expects its sales to increase to $7.92 billion in FY07, attributable to improved trends in Mexico and stable end market demand. For more details please see the consensus tab of the CLS spreadsheet.  Margins Provided below is a summary of margins as compiled by Zacks Research Digest: Margins3Q06A2Q07A3Q07A4Q07E2007E1Q08E2008E2009EGross5.6%4.7%5.9%6.0%5.2%5.7%5.9%!5.9%!Operating2.7%1.1%2.3%2.4%1.6%1.9%!2.5%!2.9%!Pre-Tax2.0%0.0%1.7%1.8%!0.7%!1.1%!1.8%!2.1%!Net1.7%0.3%1.4%1.4%!0.7%1.0%!1.5%!1.8% The Zacks Digest average gross profit in 3Q07 was $121.8 million, a 9.8% decrease from $135.1 million in 3Q06, but an increase of 33.5% sequentially. The sequential increase in gross margin was attributable to gains from ongoing restructuring actions, improvements made in manufacturing efficiencies and yields, volume leverage from the sequential increase in the consumer business, and improved operating performance in both Mexico and Europe. Gross margin stood at 5.9%, up 30 bps y/y and 120 bps sequentially. SG&A and R&D for the quarter increased 4.5% q/q to $73.8 million, and represented 3.5% of total revenue. Operating income in 3Q07 was $48.1 million, reflecting a 24.8% decrease from $63.9 million in 3Q06, but an increase of 136.2% sequentially. The sequential increase was attributable to higher gross margin and reduced losses in both Mexico and Europe. Operating losses in Mexico declined by $11.0 million sequentially to $10.0 million, while operating losses in Europe declined by $1.0 million sequentially to $10.0 million, attributable to a more stable revenue base, greater efficiencies and a more favorable product mix. During the quarter, operating margin stood at 2.3%, reflecting a decrease of 40 bps y/y, but an increase of 120 bps sequentially. Net interest income for the quarter stood at $10.0 million, down 41.9% y/y and 34.4% sequentially. Pretax income in 3Q07 was $36.1 million, down 22.7% y/y. The effective tax rate was 25.3% in 3Q07. CLS incurred $2.7 million charges related to the previously announced $20.0-$40.0 million restructuring charges to be incurred through 1H08. The current phase of restructuring will be focused on a reduction in people rather than facilities generating $40.0 million in annual savings. Outlook Management expects 4Q07 operating margin to be approximately 3%. For 4Q07, CLS expects the losses in Mexico to narrow and breakeven levels are expected during 2H08, attributable to new program wins and efficiency gains, while it expects some improvement in Europe but at a slower rate than Mexico. As such, breakeven levels in Europe are not expected until FY08. Given the combination of potentially narrowing losses in Mexico, along with the benefits of recent restructuring and the ramp of consumer business in 4Q07, one analyst (Jefferies) expects margins to expand in the forthcoming quarters. One analyst (RBC Cap.) believes that despite flat revenue trends, margins would improve by 20 bps sequentially in 4Q07, attributable to declined losses in Mexico and Europe. As per Zacks Digest, COGS is expected to decrease by 9.7% y/y in FY07 and increase by 3.4% y/y in FY08 and 8.1% in FY09 versus revenue decrease of 9.7% y/y in FY07 and increase of 3.9% y/y in FY08 and 7.2% in FY09. SG&A and R&D expense is expected to increase by 2.2% y/y in FY07 and decrease by 0.7% y/y in FY08 and again increase by 6.5% in FY09. For more details please see the consensus tab of the CLS spreadsheet.  Earnings per Share Provided below is a summary of EPS as compiled by Zacks Research Digest: EPS3Q06A2Q07A3Q07A4Q07E2007E1Q08E2008E2009EZacks Consensus$0.13 $0.21 0.08$0.51 Digest Average$0.18 $0.02 $0.13 $0.13 $0.24 $0.08 $0.51! $0.68 Digest High$0.20 $0.02 $0.13 $0.14 $0.26 $0.11 $0.63$0.72 Digest Low$0.17 $0.02 $0.12 $0.11 $0.20 $0.02 $0.41 $0.62 YoY Growth-84.6%-29.0%194.1%-43.5%281.8%114.8%31.2%QoQ Growth37.8%147.4%536.0%3.0%-41.5%Before FAS123$0.10 - $0.16 Zacks Digest average 3Q07 pro forma EPS was $0.13, down 29.0% y/y, but up 536.0% sequentially. The sequential increase was driven by improving margins, lower interest expense, volume growth and solid improvement in the Mexico operations. EPS of $0.13 was above the street consensus of $0.07 and also above the high end of managements guidance range of $0.04 to $0.12. Outlook Management expects EPS to be in the range of $0.10-$0.16 for 4Q07. Zacks Digest projects EPS of $0.24 for 2007, $0.51 for 2008 and $0.68 for 2009, representing a y/y decrease of 43.5% in 2007, and y/y growth of 114.8% and 31.2% in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The estimated 3-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) based on 2005 EPS is (3.3%). Highlights from the chart above are as follows: 2007 forecasts (18 analysts) range from $0.20 (Bear Stearns) to $0.26 (RBC Cap.); the average is $0.24. 2008 forecasts (18 analysts) range from $0.41 (BMO Capital) to $0.63 (B. of America); the average is $0.51. 2009 forecasts (4 analysts) range from $0.62 (ScotiaCap.) to $0.72 (Bear Stearns); the average is $0.68. Following the earnings release, most of the analysts increased their EPS estimates for FY07 and FY08 on the basis of 3Q07 results, continued operational improvement and strong operating margins during the quarter while a few analysts decreased their FY08 estimates, attributable to increase in tax rate and disappointing outlook. One analyst (BMO Capital) believes that despite low revenue growth, CLSs earnings momentum will improve in the forthcoming quarters. For more details please see the EPS tab of the CLS spreadsheet.  Target Price/Valuation Of the 19 analysts covering the stock, 17 analysts gave neutral ratings, and 2 gave negative ratings. None of the analysts provided a positive rating on the stock. Target prices for CLS range from a low of $5.30 (Goldman) (8.6% downside from current price) to a high of $8.00 (BMO Capital) (37.9% upside from current price), with an average of $7.01 (! $0.36 from the previous report) (20.9% upside from current price). The firm (Goldman) quoting the lowest target price of $5.30 has rated the stock Sell. The firm (BMO Capital) quoting the highest target price of $8.00 has rated the stock Market Perform. Most brokerage firms have based their calculations on a P/E methodology (11-15x). Other valuation metrics include a DCF analysis, a P/B multiple and EV/EBITDA multiple. Following the 3Q07 earnings release, 10 analysts have increased their target price, attributable to strong 3Q07 results, margin improvement and impressive outlook. In the recent update, 2 analysts (Kintisheff and Goldman) have increased their respective target prices and 1 analyst (Kintisheff) has upgraded the stock based on progress in revenue and the customer programs. Provided below is the summary of valuation and ratings as compiled by Zacks Research Digest: Rating DistributionPositive0.0%Neutral89.5%Negative10.5%Avg. Target Price$7.01!Maximum Target Price$8.00Minimum Target Price$5.30No of Analysts with Target Price/Total 13/19 According to analysts, risks that may impede the target price and ratings include loss of customer s business due to product obsolesce, high customer concentration, integration risk, competition from Asian ODM/EMS providers, slowdown in end markets and reduced consumer spending. Metrics detailing current management effectiveness are as follows: MetricsCompanyIndustryS&P 500Return on Assets (ROA)-1.3%6.5%8.9%Return on Investment (ROI)-2.1%8.9%12.9%Return on Equity (ROE)-2.9%17.5%21.9% ROA, ROI, and ROE of (1.3%), (2.1%), and (2.9%) are lower than the market averages (as measured by S&P 500) of 8.9%, 12.9% and 21.9%, respectively. For more details please see the Valuation tab of the CLS spreadsheet.  Capital Structure/Solvency/Cash Flow/Governance/Other Balance Sheet At the end of the third quarter, cash and cash equivalents increased to $953.1 million. Inventory decreased by $28.0 million q/q to $926.9 million. Inventory turns increased to 8.3x from 7.3x in 2Q07. Accounts receivable increased by $23.7 million q/q to $963.6 million, while DSOs decreased to 41.7 days in 3Q07 from 41.9 days in 2Q07. Long term debt stood at $746.7 million during the quarter. Cash Flow 3Q07 cash flow from operations stood at $217.8 million. Capital expenditure was approximately $12.7 million during the quarter. Free cash flow was approximately $206.0 million in the quarter. Manufacturing Partner CLS was selected by Thales to manufacture products for the Boeing 787 aircraft in support of the Thales TopSeries In-flight Entertainment system. Under the expanded agreement, Celestica will participate as part of the new product introduction team, and ultimately, provide fully tested new video displays and electronic boxes to Thales. These components are part of Thaless cabin system for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Production is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2007. December 31, 2007  Potentially Severe Problems None other than those discussed in other sections of this report. December 31, 2007  Long-Term Growth Zacks Digest long-term growth rates range from 10.0% (Bear Stearns) to 25.0% (Merrill), with an average of 15.8%. According to analysts, CLS plans to generate growth through incremental outsourcing (with both new and existing customers), additional service offerings (primarily within design, configuration, fulfillment, and supply chain management), and acquisitions in the consolidating EMS industry. Most analysts believe once CLS completes the realignment of its global footprint, it will be well- positioned to benefit from the secular outsourcing trend and win a greater share of new business. One firm (CIBC) believes the long-term growth and profitability of the Company will be dependent on the Companys ability to implement its restructuring program and improve margins, while growing the topline. December 31, 2007  Upcoming Events On January 31, 2008, CLS is expected to release its 4Q07 earnings.  Individual Analyst Opinions POSITIVE RATINGS (0.0%) None NEUTRAL RATINGS (89.5%) BMO Cap. Market Perform (Target Price $8.00) (11/29/07): The analyst has reiterated a Market Perform rating on the stock and the price target of $8.00 per share. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: Though the analyst was encouraged by the Companys 3Q07 performance, it prefers to remain on the sidelines due to low revenue visibility and unclear industry fundamentals. Genuity Hold (Target Price $7.50) (10/26/07): The analyst has retained a Hold rating on the stock, but increased the target price from $7.00 to $7.50. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The analyst remains concerned about the economic conditions in 2008. Further, it does not see any important catalyst that will drive the stock higher in the near term. Hence, it prefers to remain on the sidelines. Kintisheff Hold (Target Price $6.50) (11/09/07): The analyst has upgraded the stock from a Sell rating to a Hold rating, and increased the target price from $4.00 to $6.50. Longbow Neutral (10/26/07): The analyst has reaffirmed a Neutral rating on the stock. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The analyst believes that unless the Company achieves sustained progress in both sales and earnings, any upside to the stock will be limited. B. of America Neutral (Target Price $7.00) (12/27/07): The analyst has maintained a Neutral rating on the stock and the target price of $7.00 per share. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The analyst remains cautious on the stock based on customer and execution risk, weak revenue and lack of continued margin growth. Further, it expects limited upside to estimates in the near term. CIBC Sector Performer (Target Price $7.00) (10/25/07): The analyst has reiterated a Sector Performer rating on the stock with a target price of $7.00 per share. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The analyst believes that the shares are fairly valued at the current levels, owing to lower revenue, uncertain end markets, and further delays in operating leverage. Citigroup Hold (Target Price $7.50) (10/26/07): The analyst has maintained a Hold rating on the stock, but increased the target price from $7.00 to $7.50 per share. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: Although the analyst believes that the Company has made decent progress with its Mexico operations, it prefers to remain on the sidelines until there is stronger sales volume and increased profitability. Cowen Neutral (10/26/07): The analyst has reiterated a Neutral rating on the stock. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The firm opines investors should wait for more visibility before becoming positive on the stock. Deutsche Bank Hold (Target Price $6.00) (12/18/07): The analyst has resumed coverage on the stock with a Hold rating and a target price of $6.00 per share. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The firm remains concerned about the slowing macroeconomic conditions and the Companys focus on the slower growing core EMS verticals, and hence, prefers to remain on the sidelines. J.P. Morgan Neutral (12/17/07): The firm has maintained a Neutral rating on the stock. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The analyst remains encouraged by the Companys 3Q07 results, but would wait for consistent revenue and earnings improvement before getting more constructive on the stock. Jefferies Hold (Target Price $6.75) (10/26/07): The analyst has retained a Hold rating on the stock, but increased the target price from $6.25 to $6.75 per share. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The analyst remains cautious on the stock, owing to limited sales growth, challenged profit metrics, market share losses and inconsistent performance. Lehman Equal Weight (Target Price $7.00) (10/26/07): The analyst has maintained an Equal Weight rating on the stock, but increased the target price from $6.50 to $7.00 per share. INVESTMENT SUMMARY: The analyst believes that the Companys margin improvement is not sufficient for the stock to appreciate in the near term. Hence, the analyst prefers to remain on the sidelines until there is a sustained growth in sales and a steady demand environment. 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