Outlook t.org
Outlook
Global Auto Outlook Industry at Crossroads?
Jeff Schuster, President Global Vehicle Forcasts January 13, 2018
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2
Global short-term external risk factors
? After 2018 contraction, ? Tariffs and a trade war ?
slower global momentum remain a significant
may start to negatively
concern for autos.
impact individual markets ? USMCA , South Korea
? China, US and WE could
deals all but done,
may not bel strong enough while China, EU, and ?
to support positive global Japan talks linger as a
volume growth and are
next steps.
ones to watch
? EU premium groups
? Global LV sales expected remain at greatest ?
to return to positive
risk if not settled.
growth but momentum
25% tariff on EU
risk is high.
imported vehicles,
could lower US sales
by 200k.
? 2018 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Brexit concern is back i?n focus after WLTP rolls out (CO2 emission test). Hard Brexit probability has increased to 40%.
?
Could add ?1.8bn to the cost of exports and ?2.7bn to the cost imports, annually.
?
UK LV market could shrink by nearly 15% and threaten domestic and continental plants? while undermining JIT business models.
NEV
EPA proposed freezing CAFE standard at 2020 level. States led by California suing EPA.
EU CO2 emissions increased in 2017, putting 2021 target in Jeopardy.
China NEV credit starts in 2019 (modified version of ZEV).
Many moving parts but
likely enables EV
growth...if consumers
buy.
3
2019 outlook is clouded after decline in 2018
World 2019 forecast: 95.4 mn, Up 750k units from 2018.
World
2%
1%
North America
-2% 0% -2%
17 18 19F
-1% 17 18 19F
Western Europe
3%
1%
0%
17 18 19F
South America 13% 8% 0%
17 18 19F
C&E Europe
8% 2% 2%
China
2%
2%
17 18 19F
-4%
17 18 19F
Asia Pacific minus China
5% 4% 1%
17 18 19F
? 2018 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
4
Global Segments ? Trucks grow in 2019
6%
SUV sales forecast
to drive industry
growth across sizes
and markets
Car segment under
3%
pressure after 5%
decline in 2018,
continuing decline
Pickups with
2%
Ranger and HD
growth in NA +
PSA/Renault LCV
gains drive increase
in trucks
? 2018 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
-3% -1% 5%
Aging Hongguang and other Chinese MPVs pull down MPV segment offset by some stable FCA volume
Decline in NA Sporty drives global pullback as models age
Total Premium recovery continues globally, as SUVs grow by 9% (46% share) Cars contract by 3% 5
GBrlooabda-lbLaVseSdal2e0s1?92L0V1p8roOduutctoiofnthgeroGwathteto 95.6mn
Global volume growth is 1% or up 1mn units from 2018, after weak 2H18
Growth in LV production, 2018 from 2017 (000s)
800
600 1.9%
400
2.5%
200 0
-200
0.5%
1.4%
China Other Asia Europe North South -0.5% America America
MEA -0.2%
? 2018 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
6
World: BEV & Hybrid markets 2018
Global Passenger Car and US Light Truck Market
% of New Car Sales*
6 China
5
6 USA
5
6 Europe
5
6 World
5
4
2.3% 4
3
3
4
4
4.2%
3.9%
3
3
2.6%
2
2
2
2
1
3.0% 1
0.8%
0
0
2016 2017 2018
2016 2017 2018
xHEV including PHEV
1
1.0%
0
2016 2017 2018
1
1.4%
0
2016 2017 2018
BEV including EREV
? Global BEV sales cross 1mn in 2018 to 1.2mn, up 55% from 2017.
? Global xHEV sales were up 20% to 3.3mn in 2018.
? Japan is by far the leader in electrification at 25% in 2018, almost all full hybrid.
? 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
7
World: China Dominates BEV Sales
BEV Sales, Global PV and US Light Truck Market
BEV 1200
? NEV subsidies continue to keep China on top with 61% of BEVs.
BEV Sales 2018, (`000s)
900 China (734)
600
Europe (180) 300
USA (195)
0
other (89)
20118
? 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
? Many more brands will take to the China BEV stage, but many will fail or be consolidated into larger groups/
? With tougher FE standards and (generally) better incentives, Europe is moving to BEV fast, but Tesla pre-orders kept US higher last year.
? Europe greatly exceeds USA in total electrified technologies, including conventional FHEV with nearly 1mn units, 250k more than the US.
8
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