Public School Enrollment Projections 2009 - 2018

Public School Enrollment Projections

2009 - 2018

September, 2009

Maryland Department of Planning

MAL

State of Maryland

Martin O'Malley Governor Anthony G. Brown Lt. Governor

Maryland Department of Planning

Richard Eberhart Hall, AICP Secretary Matthew J. Power Deputy Secretary

Maryland Department of Planning 301 West Preston Street, Suite 1101 Baltimore, Maryland 21201 Tel: 410.767.4500 Toll Free: 1.877.767.6272 TTY users: Maryland Relay mdp.state.md.us

Public School Enrollment Projections, 2009 - 2018 September 2009 Publication No. 2009-003

This Public School Enrollment Projections was produced by the Planning Data Services Division of the Maryland Department of Planning as a service to local governments and planning officials.

FOREWORD

This report, Public School Enrollment Projections 2009-2018, is an update of the Maryland Department of Planning's annual report on public school enrollment statistics.

The report provides projections of public school enrollment through 2018 by grade for each of the counties of the State and Baltimore City. Statistics on actual total and public school enrollment for 1998-2008 are also included.

The public school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning's population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The population projections are used to derive school-age population (persons 5-17 years of age) and projected births. These projections are then used in conjunction with a "grade succession" methodology to derive the ten-year, grade-specific enrollment projections.

By 2011, thousands of jobs and associated households are expected to relocate to Maryland as a result of the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Act (BRAC). The impact of these households was accounted for in this report to the extent that they are reflected in the Maryland Department of Planning's population projections. These projections are prepared within a cooperative forecasting process involving the two Metropolitan Planning Organizations in the Baltimore, Suburban Washington and Southern Maryland regions and the local jurisdictions.

A preliminary set of enrollment projections along with supporting materials documenting the projection methodology were sent previously to each School Superintendent and facility planner.

Copies of this report have been sent to all local school systems. Additional copies of this report can be obtained from the Maryland Department of Planning's Planning Data Services, (410) 767-4450.

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CONTENTS

Page

Foreword ........................................................................................................................ 1

Summary of Findings.................................................................................................... 7

I. Recent Enrollment Changes.............................................................................................................7

II. Factors Affecting Public School Enrollment......................................................................................7

III. Summary of State Projections Over the Next 10 Years .................................................................10 A. Total Enrollment.................................................................................................................10 B. Elementary Enrollment ......................................................................................................10 C. Middle School Enrollment..................................................................................................12 D. High School Enrollment .....................................................................................................13

IV. Summary of Jurisdiction Projections Over the Next 10 Years........................................................14

Statewide and Jurisdiction Trends and Projections .................................................17

I. Long-Term Statewide Demographic Perspective...........................................................................17 A. Births..................................................................................................................................17 B. Migration ............................................................................................................................20 B.1 Domestic Migration in the 1980s & 1990s............................................................20 B.2 Foreign Immigration in the 1980s and 1990s .......................................................20 B.3 Post 2000 Domestic Migration..............................................................................22 B.4 Migration and Economic Vitality ...........................................................................22 B.5 Migration and Relative Housing Prices ................................................................23 B.6 Post 2000 Foreign Immigration and Total Migration ............................................23 B.7 Foreign Immigration and Population Growth........................................................23 B.8 Intra State Migration .............................................................................................26 C. Impact of Demographic Trends on Public School Enrollment...........................................26 C.1 Trends in Public School Enrollment by Type........................................................28

II. Jurisdiction Highlights .....................................................................................................................31 A. Total Enrollment.................................................................................................................31 B. Elementary School Enrollment ..........................................................................................35 C. Middle School Enrollment..................................................................................................35 D. High School Enrollment .....................................................................................................42

Listing of Tables

Table 1 Summary of Historical and Projected Public School Enrollment for Maryland..................11

Table 2

Summary of Historical and Projected Public School Enrollment for Maryland's Jurisdictions .....................................................................................15

Table 3 Components of Population Change for Maryland's Jurisdictions, 2000-2008 ..................25

Table 4

Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) by Jurisdiction, Actual (2008) and Projected (2009-2018)................................................................32

Table 5

Cumulative Change in Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) from Actual 2008 by Jurisdiction..............................................................................33

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