State of the Auto Finance Market - Experian

[Pages:28]State of the Automotive Finance Market

Presented by: Melinda Zabritski Q1 2019

1 ? Experian

Session overview

Market Overview

? Outstanding balances ? Total risk distributions ? Delinquency

Originations

? New and Used financing ? Lender and transaction types ? Loan & lease characteristics

2 ? Experian

Experian Public State of the Automotive Finance Market Q1 2019

Overall Automotive Finance Market

A review of all open automotive loans & leases

3 ? Experian

Experian Public State of the Automotive Finance Market Q1 2019

Loan balances reach another record high

Billions Billions

Total open automotive loan balance

$1,200 $1,180

$1,181

$1,160

6.5%

$1,140

$1,120 $1,100 $1,080 $1,060

$1,083 7.8%

$1,108 2.3%

$1,040

$1,020

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

4 ? Experian

Experian Public State of the Automotive Finance Market Q1 2019

Total open automotive loan balance

$1,400

$1,200 $1,000

$800 $600 $400

$180.1 $286.8 $252.7

$161.9 $318.7 $259.0

$201.5 $351.4 $260.5

$200

$363.5

$0

2017 Q1

Banks Captive

$368.7

2018 Q1 Credit Union

$367.5

2019 Q1 Finance

Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports

Percentage of all subprime balances remains under 19%

Loan balance risk distribution

19.74%

20.29%

20.71%

41.70%

42.46%

42.31%

18.86%

18.55%

18.20%

15.94% 3.76% 2017 Q1

Deep Subprime

15.23% 3.47% 2018 Q1

Subprime Nonprime

15.18% 3.59% 2019 Q1

Prime Super Prime

5 ? Experian

Experian Public State of the Automotive Finance Market Q1 2019

Year-over-year balance change

10.48%

8.75%

6.19%

4.50%

6.19%

Deep

Subprime Nonprime

subprime

Prime Super prime

30 day delinquency rates rise for most lenders

6.0%

2018 Q1 2019 Q1

% of loans & leases 30 dpd

4.0%

3.83% 3.52%

2.0%

1.74% 1.73%

1.61% 1.95%

1.17% 1.15%

0.0%

Bank

Captive

Credit Union

Finance

% of loan balances 30 dpd

6.0%

2018 Q1 2019 Q1

4.0%

2.0%

1.60% 1.58%

1.79% 2.32%

1.02% 0.98%

4.26% 3.99%

0.0%

Bank

Captive

Credit Union

Finance

1.90% 1.98% Total

1.86% 1.98% Total

6 ? Experian

Experian Public State of the Automotive Finance Market Q1 2019

Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports

Percentage of loan balances 30 dpd

AK = 1.46% HI = 1.39%

7 ? Experian

Experian Public State of the Automotive Finance Market Q1 2019

60 day delinquency remains flat

2.0%

2018 Q1 2019 Q1

1.5%

% of loans & leases 60 dpd

1.60% 1.45%

1.0%

0.63% 0.67%

0.5%

0.53% 0.50%

0.30% 0.29%

0.0%

Banks

Captive

Credit Union

Finance

2.0%

2018 Q1 2019 Q1

1.5%

% of loan balances 60 dpd

1.80% 1.64%

1.0%

0.57% 0.63%

0.5%

0.0%

Bank

0.60% 0.59% Captive

0.24% 0.23% Credit Union

Finance

0.68% 0.68% Total

0.66% 0.67% Total

8 ? Experian

Experian Public State of the Automotive Finance Market Q1 2019

Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports

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