The Power of Dividends - Hartford Funds

2019

Insight

The Power of Dividends

Past, Present, and Future

Inside:

The Long-Term View Decade By Decade: How

Dividends Impacted Returns When "High" Beat "Highest" Payout Ratio: ACritical Metric Do Dividend Policies Affect Stock

Performance? Lowest Risk and Highest Returns

for Dividend Growers & Initiators The Future for Dividend

Investors Fig 1

Fig 2

1

AVOIDING FADS CAN BE AN IMPORTANT PART OF INVESTMENT SUCCESS. When everyone is talking about an investment, it's often a sell signal, since the masses generally buy investments after they've significantly increased in value.

With this in mind, we need to wonder if all the talk about dividend-paying stocks is just a fad, or if there's real merit to the dividend argument, particularly at this point in market history. In this insight, we'll take a historical look at dividends and examine the future for dividend investors.

The Long-Term View Dividends have played a significant role in the returns investors have received during the past 50 years. Going back to 1960, 82% of the total return of the S&P 500 Index1 can be attributed to reinvested dividends and the power of compounding, as illustrated in FIGURE 1.

FIGURE 1

The Power of Dividends and Compounding

Growth of $10,000 (12/1960?12/2018)

Fig 8

$9,

$3,000,000 I S&P 500 Total Return (Reinvesting Dividends)

$8,

I S&P 500 Price Only (No Dividends) $2,500,000

$2,459,158

$7,

$2,000,000

$6,

$1,500,000

$5,

$1,000,000

$4,

$500,000

$431,397 $3,

$0

12/60 12/70 12/80 12/90 12/00 12/10 12/18

$2,

Data Sources: Morningstar and Hartford Funds, 1/19.

$1,

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only. Dividend-paying stocks are not guaranteed to outperform non-dividendpaying stocks in a declining, flat, or rising market. The graph is not representative of any Hartford Fund's performance, and does not take into account fees and ch20a%rges associated with actual investments.

30%

16%

1 S1&5P%500 Index is a market capitalizati2o8n%-weighted price index composed of 500

widely held common stocks. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct

i1n0v%estment.

20%

67% 5%

44% 73%

43% NA*

Fig 9

0%

$3,000,000 I S&P 500 Total Return (Reinvesting Dividends)

InsightI S&P 500 Price Only (No Dividends)

$2,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,459,158

$8,000 $7,000 $6,000

$1,500,000

$5,000

Decade By Decade: How Dividends Impacted Returns Look$in1g,00a0t,0a0v0erage stock performance over a longer time frame provides

$4,000

a more granular perspective. From 1930?2018, dividend income's $431,397 contrib$u50ti0o,0n0t0o the total return of the S&P 500 Index averaged 43%. Looking

$3,000

at S&P 500 I$n0dex performance on a decade-by-decade basis shows how dividends' con1t2r/i6b0utio1n2v/7a0ried1g2r/e8a0tly f1r2o/m90dec1a2d/0e0to d1e2c/a1d0e. 12/18

$2,000

FIGURE 2

Dividends' Contribution to Total Return Varies By Decade

g 2 n S&P 500 Dividend Contribution to Total Return n S&P 500 Price Only (No Dividends)

20%

Dividends were $1,000

de-emphasized in the 1990s, but$a0 f1t/e72r the dot-c1o2m/82 bubble 12/92

burst, investors once again

30% 15%

16% 28%

10% 67%

5%

44% 73%

20% 43%

NA*

Fig 9 turned their attention to dividends.

$3,000

$2,500

Average annual total return

0% 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 19302018

Data Sources: Morningstar and Hartford Funds, 1/19. *Total Return for the S&P 500

g 3

Index was negative for the 2000s. Dividends provided a 1.8% annualized return over the decade.

$2,000 $1,500 $1,000

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The graph shown is for illustrative purposes only.

$500

Dividends played a large role in terms of their contribution to total returns

during the 1940s, 1960s, and 1970s, decades in which total returns were

lower than 10%. By contrast, dividends played a smaller role during the

1950s, 1980s, and 1990s when average annual total returns for the decade

were well into double digits.

Fig 10

During the 1990s, dividends were de-emphasized. At the time, companies thought they were better able to deploy their capital by reinvesting$it14in0

their businesses rather than returning it to shareholders. Significant capital appreciation year in and year out caused investors to shift their atte$n12ti0on

away from dividends.

From 2000 to 2009, a period often referred to as the "lost decade," t$h1e00

ig 4

S&P 500 produced a negative return. Largely as a result of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, stock investors once again turn$8e0d

to fundamentals such as P/E ratios2 and dividend yields.

$60

$0 1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

$40

$20

$0

400% 360%

320%

280%

240%

2 Price/earnings "P/E" ratio is the ratio of a stock's price to its earnings per sh2a0r0e%. 160%

2

120%

80%

40%

Insight

FIGURE 3 summarizes the dividend yield for the S&P 500 Index from 1970? 2018. According to Yale, the median dividend yield for the entire period was 2.77%, with yields peaking in the 1980s and bottoming in the 2000s. Today, investors continue to place a high premium on the more tangible and immediate returns that dividends provide.

FIGURE 3

After Bottoming in 2000, the Yield on the S&P 500 Index Has Generally Been Rising

S&P 500 Index Dividend Yield (12/31/1969?12/31/2018)

7

6

7

5

6

4

5

3

4

2

1

0

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2018

3

2

Black Monday

1

Data Sources: Yale and Hartford Funds, 1/19.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only. The graph is not representative of any Hartford Fund's performance, and does not take into account fees and charges associated with actual investments.

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

14

When "High" Beat "Highest"

13

Investors seeking dividend-paying investments may make the mistak1e2

of simply choosing those that offer the highest yields possible. A stud1y1

conducted by Wellington Management reveals the potential flaws in t1h0is

thinking.

9

8

The study found that stocks offering the highest level of dividend payo7uts

have not performed as well as those that pay high, but not the very 6

highest, levels of dividends.

5

This conclusion is counterintuitive: Why wouldn't the highest-yielding 4

stocks have the best historical total rBeltaucrknTsu?esIsdnay't the ability to pay a 3

generous dividend a sign of a healthy underlying business?

2

1 We'll answer these questions in a moment, but we'll begin by summari0zing the methodology18a8n0d fi1n89d0ing1s90o0f th1e91s0tud1y9.20 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Stocks offering the highest level of dividend payouts have not performed as well asBlatchk oMosnedaythat pay high, but not the very highest, levels of dividends.

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Wellington Management began by dividing dividend-paying stocks into quintiles by their level of dividend payouts. The first quintile (i.e., top 20%) consisted of the highest dividend payers, while the fifth quintile (i.e., bottom 20%) consisted of the lowest dividend payers.

3

Insight

FIGURE 4 summarizes the performance of the S&P500 Index as a whole relative to6e6a.7c%h quint8il8e.9o%ver the66p.a7s%t eight 3d3e.c3a%des. 44.4%

FIGURE 4

Second-Quintile Stocks Outperformed Most Often From 1929?2018

Percentage of Time Dividend Payers by Quintile Outperformed the S&P 500 Index (summary of data in FIGURE 5)

66.7%

77.8%

55.6%

33.3%

44.4%

1st Quintile 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile 5th Quintile

Data Sources: Wellington Management and Hartford Funds, 1/19. Performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results.

The second-quintile stocks outperformed the S&P 500 Index eight out of the nine time periods (1929 to 2018), or 77.8% of the time, while firstquintile stocks came in second, beating the Index 66.7% of the time. Third-, fourth-, and fifth-quintile stocks lagged behind the first- and secondquintile dividend payers.

FIGURE 5

Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) for US Stocks by Dividend Yield Quintile by Decade

(1929?2018)

Jan-1930 to Dec-1939 Jan-1940 to Dec-1949 Jan-1950 to Dec-1959 Jan-1960 to Dec-1969 Jan-1970 to Dec-1979 Jan-1980 to Dec-1989 Jan-1990 to Dec-1999 Jan-2000 to Dec-2009 Jan-2010 to Dec-2018

S&P 500 -0.20% 9.51% 18.33% 8.26% 6.05% 16.80% 17.96% -0.44% 11.83%

1st Quintile -1.22% 13.92% 18.52% 8.82% 9.67% 20.23% 12.35% 4.91% 11.56%

2nd Quintile 0.40% 13.06% 20.31% 8.90% 10.23% 19.62% 15.57% 4.57% 12.30%

3rd Quintile -2.44% 10.26% 18.47% 6.45% 7.00% 17.19% 15.07% 4.48% 12.37%

4th Quintile -0.39% 8.63% 16.57% 7.96% 7.57% 16.20% 18.07% 1.91% 10.92%

5th Quintile 2.07% 6.83% 19.81% 9.32% 3.94% 14.66% 18.92% -1.77% 8.38%

Data Sources: Wellington Management and Hartford Funds, 1/19. US stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Chart represents the compound annual growth rate (%) for US stocks by dividend yield quintile by decade from 1930-2009 and January 2010 to December 2018.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only. The graphs are not representative of any Hartford Fund's performance, and do not take into account fees and charges associated with actual investments.

4

Insight

Payout Ratio: A Critical Metric One reason why second-quintile dividend stocks came out ahead is because the first-quintile's excessive dividend payouts haven't always been sustainable. The best way to measure whether a company will be able to pay a consistent dividend is through the payout ratio.

The payout ratio is calculated by dividing the yearly dividend per share by the earnings per share. A high payout ratio means that a company is using a significant percentage of its earnings to pay a dividend, which leaves them with less money to invest in future growth of the business.

The chart below illustrates the average dividend payout ratio since 1979 for the first two quintiles of dividend payers within the Russell 1000 Index.3 The first-quintile stocks had an average dividend payout ratio of 72%, while the second quintile had a 41% average payout ratio.

A payout ratio of 72% could be difficult to sustain if a company experiences a drop in earnings. Once this happens, a company could be forced to cut its dividend. A dividend cut is often viewed as a sign of weakness in the financial markets and frequently results in a decline in the price of the company's stock.

FIGURE 6

Average Dividend Payout Ratio

(1/31/1979?12/31/2018)

1st Quintile 2nd Quintile

72% 41%

Data Sources: Wellington Management and Hartford Funds, 1/19. Payout ratios illustrated are for stocks within the Russell 1000 Index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The graph shown is for illustrative purposes only. The graph is not representative of any Hartford Fund's performance, and does not take into account fees and charges associated with actual investments.

70%

47%

The best way to measure whether a company will be able to pay a consistent dividend is through the payout ratio.

3 The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

5

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download