RETURNS OVER 20-YEAR PERIODS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY; …

[Pages:1]Change In P/E Ratio (Beginning To End)

Rolling 20 Yr Change In S&P 500 (annual rate)

RETURNS OVER 20-YEAR PERIODS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY; AFFECTED BY THE STARTING P/E RATIO

20-YEAR ROLLING STOCK MARKET RETURN (blue/left) & CHANGE IN P/E RATIO (red/right): 1919 - 2020

20%

80

70

15%

60

50

10%

40

30

5%

20

10

0%

-

(10)

-5%

(20)

1919 1926 1933 1940 1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017

20-Yr Annualized Return (S&P 500 Total Return, Including Dividends)

Change In P/E10 (Beginning to End)

P/E10 At The Start Of The 20 Years

20 Yr Stock Market Based Upon Starting P/E Ratio (1900-2020) 45

20 Year Periods Ending 1919 - 2020 (102 periods)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10

5 0%

5%

10%

15%

Annual Total Return Over 20 Years

20%

DECILE

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

TOTAL RETURNS

BY DECILE RANGE

FROM

3.1% 6.4% 7.1% 7.3% 7.9% 8.9% 10.9% 11.5% 13.0% 14.0%

TO

6.1% 7.1% 7.3% 7.8% 8.8% 10.8% 11.4% 12.8% 14.0% 17.1%

S&P500

DECILE

AVG

5.1% 6.8% 7.2% 7.6% 8.4% 9.9% 11.2% 12.1% 13.7% 15.4%

AVG

BEGIN

P/E

23.6 18.2 13.8 16.2 17.8 16.7 14.8 11.9 11.9 10.1

AVG

END

P/E

13.2 11.7 13.8 12.6 17.3 19.2 18.5 19.1 21.6 28.6

Note: P/E ratio based upon average 10-year real EPS (P/E10)

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