SOUTHWEST GHOST HUNTERS ASSOCIATION



SOUTHWEST GHOST HUNTERS ASSOCIATIONResearch ProceduresSOP-002dude SOP-002rightcenterTable of Contents TOC \o "1-2" \u The SGHA Research Process PAGEREF _Toc306633081 \h 3The Ghost Hunt (planning process) PAGEREF _Toc306633082 \h 3Controls PAGEREF _Toc306633083 \h 4The Ghost Hunt PAGEREF _Toc306633084 \h 51. Establish a Base Area PAGEREF _Toc306633085 \h 54. Investigate the Event and Mark it on the Map PAGEREF _Toc306633086 \h 75. Surveillance PAGEREF _Toc306633087 \h 76. Replicate Events (Reconstructions), Natural Causes PAGEREF _Toc306633088 \h 87. Debriefing and Submitting the Data PAGEREF _Toc306633089 \h 84. The Case Review PAGEREF _Toc306633090 \h 10Research, Process and Planning PAGEREF _Toc306633091 \h 10Testing the paranormal variables (The Positive Control) PAGEREF _Toc306633092 \h 11Criteria for Low-Score Subjective Paranormal Experience PAGEREF _Toc306633093 \h 17Assigning a Probability PAGEREF _Toc306633094 \h 18Control Site (Negative Control) PAGEREF _Toc306633095 \h 19The Procedure PAGEREF _Toc306633096 \h 19The Research Plan PAGEREF _Toc306633097 \h 20RESEARCH PLAN PART A: Specific Aims PAGEREF _Toc306633098 \h 21RESEARCH PLAN PART B: Background and Significance PAGEREF _Toc306633099 \h 22RESEARCH PLAN PART C: Preliminary Results/Progress Report PAGEREF _Toc306633100 \h 22RESEARCH PLAN PART D: Research Design and Methods PAGEREF _Toc306633101 \h 23BUDGET AND JUSTIFICATION PAGEREF _Toc306633102 \h 24Experimental Tests PAGEREF _Toc306633103 \h 25Analysis PAGEREF _Toc306633104 \h 25The SGHA Research Processthe research process used by SGHA is designed to eliminate investigator bias and to collect reliable data on haunted locations for future research. The process has several different phases, each with its own steps, which must be completed fully in order to obtain useable data. XE "print" XE "normal view" XE "style" Phase 3PlanningGhost huntSurveillanceCase ReviewThe research process is conducted primarily through ghost hunts and is composed of four parts. XE "drop cap" Each of these parts is designed to gather a particular set of variables from a suspected haunted location. Unlike Phase One, the Team members are knowledgeable of the stories, reported sightings and any information that was gathered during the first phase. This phase differs in that SHIELD and the ghost hunters are paired together and the investigation has controls and certain protocols implemented. Specific areas will be targeted to monitor for any signs of unusual activity.The Ghost Hunt (planning process)The ghost-hunt is a liberal look to see if any paranormal activity can be identified. Suspect areas of activity are identified and initial scientific measurements are taken. The goal of a ghost hunt is to provide a reasonable doubt that “paranormal activity” may be the cause of the reported phenomena. They may also be performed to check up on known haunted locations that have been visited before.The Planning PhaseBefore the ghost hunt can executed, the Charter Officers and Team Leader (if one is appointed) must have a planning meeting to sort out details, assign or delegate responsibilities and to determine what techniques/ experiments are going to be used. It should be noted that when an Officer delegates a specific responsibility, they are still held accountable for that responsibility. The Charter Officer’s responsibilities are as follows.Operations OfficerDetermine which techniques or experiments are going to be usedDevelop a plan to ensure that there is enough allotted time for experiments and to adequately search the location. Other factors, such as breaks, meals and travel time need to be considered.Determine how many people are needed to carry out the operation based on its size and the amount of time the Team has access to the location.Post the ghost hunt in the forum to determine which investigators are available for the ghost hunt. Try to give at least two weeks of notice to allow members to adjust their personnel schedules (coordinate this with the Charter Secretary).Determine if additional (rented) instrumentation is required. Coordinate this with the Charter Secretary.Determine what controls are necessary for the investigation.After the Team is chosen, assign a Team Leader (optional). If no Team Leader is chosen, the Operations Officer or the State Coordinator will act as the Team Leader.Logistics OfficerInspect equipment and instrumentation prior to leaving to ensure serviceability (Batteries, calibration, condition)If instrumentation is to be rented, make any needed arrangements (payment, pick up and drop off). Inspect instrumentation before and after the ghost hunt.Make travel arrangements for the Team (carpooling, etc.) Designate a place and time for the Team to meet up before the ghost hunt.Ensure hotel arrangements are made (if needed) and know the room numbers of the team members.SecretaryArrange a date, place and time for the planning meeting of the Officers.Advise the Operations Officer on member participation, training levels and special skills.Type up the final plan and print a copy for the Operations Officer and Team Leader.State CoordinatorAssume the responsibilities of any Officer not available for duty.Preside over the Officer’s planning meeting.Make the final determination and approval of the plan. Strategic Officer*The Strategic Officer is only required if media is going to be present during the investigation.Define who the media source isDefine what the media wants to do at the location.Assist the State Coordinator in determining who will escort the media during the investigation and who is authorized to do interviews.Make arrangements (time, date and place) to meet the media at the location.Overview of the Officer’s Planning MeetingThe Officer’s planning meeting is held to determine the following.Are additional resources needed? (Instrumentation, rentals)Which members are participating in the ghost hunt (compose the Team). Ensure that the Team is balanced (experience and skills) and that the Charter members are selected fairly.What controls are required for the Ghost Hunt and how they will be maintained (define).Assign duties for participating members. Implement a schedule that moves teams from location to location at regular intervals and allows for periodic breaks for each of the teams. In certain instances, the team may be mobile and not stationary. In this case, the team moves from one place to another and calls any information back to a team stationed at the base.Identify problems with the operational plan and correct them.Approve and implement the plan. ControlsAfter the investigative team arrives at the location, the equipment must be inspected and prepared. Equipment on an investigation serves two purposes. One is that it eliminates natural causes, for example, a video camera would see anyone interfering with an object that is supposed to move by itself. The other is to actually record phenomena. The instruments must be positioned where they cannot move. Try to deploy instruments close to each other if at all possible.After the instruments have been deployed, the Team assigns an area as the base station and has a final briefing on the objective of the investigation and the protocols assigned to the location. Controls are then implemented. Typical controls for an investigation include (but are not limited to) the following:The investigation team is locked inside the building. All doors and windows must be secured. This is to prevent any interference from outside sources. In the case of an outdoor investigation, the perimeter of the area must be monitored or secured in some fashion.All equipment that is used by the investigators (meters, cameras and such) must be inspected and have an operational check performed in front of the Team captain and a SHIELD representative. New batteries are required in all instrumentation.All personnel must be accounted for at all times. This includes authorized by-standers such as building owners and employees. All team members need to have radio communication with the base station.Power to the location must be turned off at the breaker box. If complete power cannot be turned off, then attempt to shut off breakers in the areas where the investigation is focusing on. This is done to eliminate man made electromagnetic fields.Movement around the location is controlled and monitored. The Team Captain must approve any deviation from the assigned positions or unauthorized movement. Positions of the Team and approved movement around the location are briefed to the team during the pre-investigation briefing.A single investigator should never be left alone. The Ghost Hunt1. Establish a Base Area010795After the team has arrived at the site, the first step in a ghost-hunt is to establish a “base” area. The base is the primary place where briefings will be conducted and serves as a rendezvous point for the team while at the location. The decision of where to put the base is important. It should not be in an area where known activity as occurred if at all possible. Since this area is also where equipment cases and other items are kept, it should also be secure or have a secure area nearby where those items can be placed while the ghost hunters are away.Check Out the Equipment: Look over the equipment and perform function tests. This step also requires that new batteries are installed in all equipment to be used and that this is done in the presence of the Team Captain. Synchronize all instruments and the time stamp on cameras with the team captain’s watch.Ops Briefing: The Team Captain now briefs the group on the plan. This includes where the hunt will begin, where it concludes and the sequence of events in between. The Ops Briefing may also include reminders about rules for ghost hunting and an emphasis on being thorough and keeping controls intact. Again, everyone participating in the investigation should always know where the others are so that there is not any confusion or misinterpretations. Brief the members on their assigned duties during the ghost hunt. Safety Briefing: Following the Ops Briefing, the Team Captain now briefs the team on all known hazards associated with the location and any steps that need to be performed to ensure the safety of the group. The Safety Briefing should also include emergency procedures that describe what to do if someone is injured during the ghost-hunt.The Walk-Through: This step consists of walking through the location and pointing out certain areas for identification purposes. During the initial walk-through or at any other time during the investigation try not to unnecessarily touched or move objects. The natural environment should be left alone.No participant in the investigation (other than the Team Leader, Site Manager and Operations Officer) should be given any information about the haunting before the hunt. If they then witness something on the night of the hunt that agrees with previous reports, it obviously greatly strengthens the case.2. Execute the planThe ghost-hunt now begins. The Team will have some idea on where paranormal incidents have occurred by looking at the map prepared during the initial survey. However, it is very important to not place too much of an emphasis on these areas because the information provided to the team is intentionally limited to prevent investigator bias. It is also possible those things were missed during the initial survey or that the haunting is moving about the location in a pattern. Be sure to check all areas of the location thoroughly.After the initial run through, the Team meets at Base and is briefed on the phenomena that have been reported at the location. Information gathered during the first run through is compared with the information obtained during the initial survey. Adjustments to the operations plan are made at this time (if needed) to focus on areas that have significant comparisons.3. Record any findings31757620Hopefully, something interesting will occur during the ghost-hunt. These incidents are called “EVENTS” for the purpose of identification and are listed in numerical order as they are encountered. It is extremely important that every detail that can be accounted for is logged and recorded. Always log every event that seems out of the ordinary (doors that lock, electrical problems, chandeliers swaying, strange lights, etc.) Videotape everything for proof. Form 001 is used by SGHA for recording events that have occurred during a ghost hunt. In particular, three items are very important.Electromagnetic Fields: Type, Power level and FrequencyTemperature VariationsPhotographs taken during the event4. Investigate the Event and Mark it on the MapMark on the map everything that the team came across. Then, add in the important points such as position of team members / witnesses and the apparent track of the phenomena (if applicable). After an event has occurred, it is important to investigate the event. Note whether the site is likely to have been seen by pedestrians or other people at the time of the event.Take photographs of all important points of the incident. Put an object of known size in the field of view to act as a scale marker. Shoot the whole scene from different angles as well as taking details of particular points. Ensure that any controls implemented for the ghost hunt are kept intact / followed. Finally, look at the scene again. Try to imagine what happened by visualizing and replaying the original incident. Doing so might allow one to notice something that may have been missed before and that may have a bearing on the event.5. SurveillanceThe basic principle of conducting surveillance is to split the investigators up into teams of two or more. Each team is then stationed at a particular location to look for phenomena and operate any instruments set up or assigned there. Anything unusual is radioed back to base so that it can be recorded. The rotation schedule moves teams from location to location at regular intervals. Breaks are also scheduled to allow the investigators time to rest.Sample Rotation Schedule for 4 Teams (8 investigators)10 – 11:30pm12 – 1:30am2 – 3am3:30 – 5amLobbyDC BAStairsAD CB2nd FloorBA DCMain hallCB ADThe teams are moved to prevent boredom. It is important that a single investigator is never left alone. This is done to prevent psychosomatic response and misidentification of natural causes of phenomena. This is most likely to happen during bathroom and refreshment breaks. If remote monitoring is employed, two investigators should watch the monitor at all times unless the plan specifically states to record the cameras without monitoring. This may be done if the investigation is short on manpower. If the cameras are monitored, anything unusual seen on the monitor must be reported to the team captain immediately so that it can be investigated as soon as possible. The monitoring station should be set up in the established base area so cameras can be checked if an event is radioed in by any of the surveillance teams.Additionally, two investigators need to be assigned to a “stand-by” team. This team is deployed at the base station and if a significant event is reported, the standby team proceeds to that area to investigate the occurrence. After the surveillance is completed, the Team captain should set up a debriefing. Review your work. Go back and study each of your steps. Did you do everything correctly? Did you find all the information that you could? Is your research valid? If you do find a mistake in your work try to determine how it affected the outcome up to this point.All data from the surveillance is recorded on SGHA Form 001. Additional information may be recorded in the form of attachments.Once the Team arrives back home it begins to work on the final written report. Include stories, facts, evidence, theories and conclusions and any other information prudent to the final report. Be sure to include maps and historical information. Double and triple check all of these steps and your work involved in them. Look for any area in your investigation that could be considered incomplete and then go back and do your best to fill in that area. Have you done as much as possible in this investigation?The final report needs to be completed in a timely matter. The general guideline is that the report is completed within two weeks of the investigation. Once the final report is completed it is submitted to the Charter’s Secretary who will turn it over for a case review by the State Coordinator.6. Replicate Events (Reconstructions), Natural CausesSometimes, reconstructing events at the original site can lead to a normal explanation of the event. Suppose, for instance, that a weird groaning noise was heard by one of the investigators in an old derelict building. Upon further examination, it was discovered that the wind produces just such a noise when it blows through the building from a particular direction. Other odd noises or smells could be produced by animals or nearby vegetation. The ghost hunter should follow where the facts lead. Often those facts will need to explanations with a basis in a natural cause.7. Debriefing and Submitting the Data08890After the ghost-hunt has concluded, the Team Captain will sit down with the investigators to discuss the events encountered during the ghost-hunt. Each investigator gives his or her opinion of the event, and if necessary the team can revisit the site the next morning to reexamine certain areas. The purpose of the debriefing is to examine all the events from all possible angles. Different phenomena may be interpreted in different ways and this may be apparent by examining the viewpoints of those involved in the ghost-hunt. After the debriefing, the final results are recorded and submitted to Logistics with the map & Form 001.4. The Case Review3175170815After the surveillance is completed, a committee of investigators is assigned to review all of the data acquired during the investigation. The committee is comprised of at least two ghost hunters that have participated in either Phase one or Phase two of the location and two members of SHIELD. The president acts as an arbitrator as each side presents their case as to whether to location has enough interesting values to proceed to the research phase or not. The decision to proceed is either decided by the President or by a general vote by SGHA members at a regular monthly meeting. If the decision is to be voted upon, all aspects of the committee are briefed to the members so that they can make an informed decision.Research, Process and PlanningtThe final process in the investigative process used by SGHA is research. SAGE (Science of ghostly energetics) is assigned the responsibility of performing research. This sub group of SGHA determines what type of research is going to be performed and can request assistance from any source within SGHA for assistance. The process has several different phases, each with its own steps, which must be completed fully in order to obtain useable data. In the scientific method, a control experiment is an experiment where the variable that is being investigated or tested is kept constant. This allows for a comparison to the experiment where the variable is changed to see if there is a different result.Scientific controls are a vital, since they can eliminate or minimize unintended influences such as researcher bias, environmental changes and biological variation. Controlled experiments are used to investigate the effect of a variable on a particular system. In a controlled experiment one set of samples have been (or is believed to be) modified and the other set of samples are either expected to show no change (negative control) or expected to show a definite change (positive control).Positive controls confirm that the procedure is effective in observing the effect (therefore minimizing false negatives). Negative controls confirm that the procedure is not observing an unrelated effect (therefore minimizing false positives). A positive control is a procedure that is very similar to the actual experimental test, but which is known from previous experience to give a positive result. A negative control is known to give a negative result. The positive control confirms that the basic conditions of the experiment were able to produce a positive result, even if none of the actual experimental samples produce a positive result. The negative control demonstrates the base-line result obtained when a test does not produce a measurable positive result; often the value of the negative control is treated as a "background" value to be subtracted from the test sample results, or be used as the "100%" value against which the test sample results are weighed.This simple procedure, along with statistical hypothesis testing, is the basis of SGHA Method 001. The results from the experiments in reported haunted places (Test Sites / Positive Controls) are compared against the non-haunted locations (Control Sites/ Negative controls). In other words we are comparing potential paranormal environments against normal environments and trending the results. Generally speaking, for a null hypothesis to be accepted, it must have few or no positive results in the Control Site. Additionally, a blind standard is implemented to ensure that the ghost hunters are unaware of which sites are Control Sites and which are Test Sites. This, along with defined operational procedures, ensures that data is collected accurately and consistently in both locations.Testing the paranormal variables (The Positive Control)Positive controls are determined using probability theory. This is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual coin toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predicted.One of the biggest challenges in researching the paranormal is determining where to conduct your research. After all, no one can exactly define what "paranormal" is, much less know of a way to measure it. The simple fact is that everything that has been presented by paranormal researchers is still theoretical in nature and unproven. One simple way to scientifically prove a variable is to compare a hypothesis against a positive and negative control (comparing paranormal to normal). The problem is how do you provide a positive control if the paranormal has not yet been proven to even exist?Our answer to that problem was to use probability theory. Although there is room for error, it seems to be the most scientific way to determine a positive control for haunted places. Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual coin toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predicted.To determine the probability of a location being "haunted" or "not haunted" , we analyze two sets of variables. The variable sets are independent of each other. The first set of variables is known as "EVENT A". This set of variables determines the possibility of a location being haunted by providing a percentage on ten defined aspects.The second set of variables is called "EVENT B". This set of variables is designed to determine if a location is "not haunted".After all of the variables in both sets have been determined, they are run through a probability calculator.Event A ("Haunted" Probability)Variables1. Obscurity (How well known is the location).10Relatively unknown.09Known by it's owners, who think it may be "haunted".08Known by only a few people who think it may be "haunted".07Known locally as being "haunted", not indexed in Search Engines, no media coverage.06Known locally as being "haunted", not indexed in Search Engines, some media.05Known locally as being "haunted", indexed in Search Engines but not easily found.04Can be found in Search engines with little effort.03Easily found in Search engines, in a published book, referencing it as "haunted".02Advertised as being "haunted" in the local media, newspaper articles, TV.01Advertised as being "haunted" in the national media, National TVThis variable is used to determine the potential and degree of myth building that has taken place at the location. The more renown a location is, the higher the probability that myth building has occurred. Myth building can contaminate any of the data collected at the location in regards to witness sightings and experiences.?2. Timeline (How long has "paranormal activity" been occurring).10200 years?or more.09150 years.08125 years.07100 years.0675 years.0550 years.0425 years.0310 years.025 years.01Under 1 yearThe timeline variable provides valuable information that can be used in a variety of ways. Locations that have a long history of reported "paranormal" events that can be researched. Prior owners (and their family members) of the "haunted" property can be interviewed and their encounters can be checked against the reports of the current owners. Are the stories consistent? Are there more reports of activity now, compared to a decade ago? Older locations typically have more witnesses whose stories can be compared with stories from other witnesses and the historical record of the location.On the other hand, older locations are also more prone to myth building (thus a separate variable for that below).?3. Historical Accuracy (in accordance to sightings, stories).10Reported accounts and historical records are consistent.09Insignificant inaccuracies between the reported accounts and recorded history (small discrepancies in dates, names).08Inconsistencies exist between the reported accounts & the recorded history but not enough to imply myth building..07Inconsistencies exist. Myth building has probably occurred but not enough to be significant. Basic elements are consistent..06Minor inconsistencies between the reports and the historical record.?Only a few basic elements are consistent.05Major inconsistencies exist.?Only half of the reports are consistent with the historical record..04Inaccuracies exist between the reported accounts and recorded history. only one item may be historically accurate (name, date).03Inaccuracies exist between the reported accounts and recorded history. Strong possibility of myth building..02Major inaccuracies between the reported accounts and recorded history. Myth building has occurred..01The Reported accounts and recorded history differ radicallyBy nature, human beings are story tellers. This is why we write books, make movies and create myths. Most ghost stories are just that, nothing but stories. Sometimes the creation of the story is intentional, sometimes not.Myth building occurs when a particular event (or story) is re-told over and over by various people over time. Each time the story is told, it is embellished, until eventually the "story" is no longer accurate with what actually happened.The only way to determine if myth building has occurred is to research the historical records and see if the "story" is consistent with what actually happened (or not). The other way is by interviewing the actual witnesses, not a single person relaying that information (this is covered later). Historical research can also be used as a tool to expose hoaxes and to locate clues that may suggest unintentional myth building (mistaking a normal event for a paranormal one).4. Degree of reported paranormal activity (types of events, variety).10All five types.09Four different Types.08Three different Types.07Two different types.06Type?5:?Perceptual Abnormalities, Interactive (communication with a 'ghost", etc).05Type?4:?Perceptual Abnormalities, Visual (Apparitions, unexplainable lights, etc).04Type?3:?Environmental abnormalities: (apparent moving of objects, objects breaking, environmental disturbances).03Type 2:?Possible extraordinary physical explanations (Strange sensations, feelings of being watched, disembodied voices).02Type1:?Possible ordinary physical explanations only (noises, cold spots, unusual odors, etc).01Unmeaningful coincidence - pure chanceBy determining the types and variety of reported paranormal phenomena, we are able to make initial assessments. Is the paranormal activity most likely explainable or is there too much going on to simply be myth building, mistaken natural phenomena or coincidence?5. Frequency of reported paranormal activity (how often does it occur).10Daily.09Weekly.08Bi-Weekly.07Monthly.06Every two months (average).05Quarterly.04Every 6 months.03Annually.02Every 13 months or greater.01Single known Occurrence6. Number of witnesses interviewed.1015+?Witnesses.0910 to 14 Witnesses.089 Witnesses.077 to 8 Witnesses.066 Witnesses.055 Witnesses.044 Witnesses.033 Witnesses.022 Witnesses.011 WitnessThe number of witnesses is obviously important as the more witnesses there are, the more data there is to collect and compare.7. Reliability of witnesses (lie detector, voice stress test, conflicting accounts).10All Witnesses pass lie detector or voice stress tests. All accounts are consistent with each other.09All Witnesses pass lie detector or voice stress tests, however accounts between the witness have slight variations.08All Witnesses pass lie detector or voice stress tests, however accounts between the witness have substantial variations.07Percentile score (75%) based on total # of witnesses passing tests vs those who refuse. Accounts are generally consistent.06Percentile score (50%) based on total # of witnesses passing tests vs those who refuse. Accounts are generally consistent.05Percentile score (25%) based on total # of witnesses passing tests vs those who refuse. Accounts are generally consistent.04All Witnesses refuse lie detector or voice stress tests, however witness accounts are consistent with each other.03All Witnesses refuse lie detector or voice stress tests, however witness accounts have slight variations.02All Witnesses refuse lie detector or voice stress tests, however witness accounts have substantial variations.01All Witnesses refuse or do not pass lie detector or voice stress tests. Witness accounts vary greatly.The purpose of this probability score is to attempt to establish the burden of proof in the witness testimony. This is then weighed against the testimony of the other witnesses to determine if the observed / sensed phenomena is consistent between the multiple experiences.8. Probability of unusual events based on Initial Survey Findings (instrumentation).10200% above expected norm?(rare)?measurement was repeated with same results.09150% above expected norm (rare) measurement was repeated with same results.08125% above expected norm (rare) measurement was repeated with same results.07Mean differs from expected value by 70%, measurement was repeated with same results.06Mean differs from expected value by 60%, measurement was repeated with same results.05Mean differs from expected value by 50%, measurement was repeated with same results.04Mean differs from expected value by 70%, measurement was not repeated.03Mean differs from expected value by 60%, measurement was not repeated.02Mean differs from expected value by 50%, measurement was not repeated.01Small difference in Mean but unable to repeat measurementThis variable covers instrumentation finding of unusual (not necessarily paranormal) phenomena. No measurement is exact . All measurements will have some degree of error or uncertainty, so the measures in this table are gauged significantly to reduce the possibility of a Systematic or Random error.?Experiments (readings) are repeated whenever possible in order to determine the average ( mean ) value, which is more accurate .9. Probability of unusual events based on Initial Survey Findings (Team’s opinion)This is rated as a percentile, based on the opinion of the Team members conducting the investigation.10. Monetary gain / Publicity.10Location's owners request confidentiality (no media or on-line report).09Location's owner has no potential to benefit from the location being labeled as "haunted".08Owner is apathetic concerning on-line reports but does not want the media involved.07Owner is apathetic concerning on-line reports but does not want the media present.06Owner is apathetic concerning the media but does not want an on-line report.05Owner is apathetic concerning the media or on-line reports.04Location's owner is interested in having the media present during "investigations".03Location or it's owner could potentially benefit from the location being "haunted" , not a business.02Location is a business. Media has been requested or pre-arranged..01Location is a stop on a ghost tour, a hotel or B&B advertising as being "haunted"Locations that may potentially benefit monetarily or through publicity are more subjective to myth building, embellishing stories, fraud and hoaxes.Event B ("Non-Haunted") Probability)1. Replicated Events (percentage of witness accounts that were replicated and explainable)Based on a percentage. Take the Sum of reported paranormal events and subtract replicated events from the sum.2. Explainable phenomena (Normal causes contributed to being paranormal)Based on a percentage. Take the Sum of reported paranormal events and subtract the number of explained events from the sum.3. Subjective Paranormal Experience (SPE)Determined by performing a Electromagnetic Hypersensitivity Test on witnesses and evaluation through information obtained during the witness interview and event replication. Probability is determined by the sum of positive indicators subtracted from the sum of all of the witnesses. A positive result negates that particular witnesses' testimony.LEVELS OF EXPLAINING SUBJECTIVE PARANORMAL EXPERIENCEScoreKINDS OF FAMILIARITYBASIC DESCRIPTIONmodA. NON-FAMILIARITYUnmeaningful coincidence - pure chancemodB. REAL FAMILIARITYOrdinary physical explanations e.g. fraudmodC. QUASI -FAMILIARITYInclusive term for 6 subtypes below; these require explanations of special kind:SUBTYPES OF QUASI-FAMILIARITYmodLATENT FAMILIARITYSensory hyperaesthesia explained in ordinary physical frameworkmodPSEUDO-FAMILIARITYDue to Some brain disturbance in the percipient (experiment)modANTE-FAMILIARITYExplainable via unconscious (particularly psychoanalytic explanations)0PARA-FAMILIARITYModification of conventional physics required0META-FAMILIARITYModification of conventional physics is insufficient; radical alterations of one's world view are necessary0QUERY FAMILIARITYAt this point which kind of quasi-familiarity is involved is uncertain*mod = scoreCriteria for Low-Score Subjective Paranormal ExperienceThese criteria have been used in Neppe’s research in the area of SPEs.Low-score SPEs imply SPEs which conform to specific subjective criteria. Thus it is a lower score overall than High-score SPEs which just require the experiment to subjectively perceive the specific experience as of paranormal kind.Veridical Dreams: not symbolic, not intuitive, plus alleged awareness of content of dream prior to knowing of its occurrence in reality.Simultaneous Dreams: allegedly reflects directly in many details a dream another person had, plus claimed confirmation with that person.General ESP: non-symbolic, not intuitive, claimed awareness of content prior to knowing of the occurrence in reality.Mediumship: trance state with loss of consciousness, claimed by subject that he obtained information that was regarded by sitters as evidential in a factual, non-symbolic sense.Presences: clear visualization with descriptive details as opposed to just ’sensing’ or being aware or just an unclear distortion.Out-of-body Experiences: feeling completely outside one’s body, seeing one’s own body or obtaining information about physical events or places.Psychokinesis: definite claims to have manipulated, moved or levitated physical objects, in which the change was allegedly visualized or confirmed by the subject or another person.Paranormal Auras: spontaneous (non-induced), visualization as opposed to ’sensing’ or otherwise detecting.Paranormal Healing: specific claims of definite success in individual cases.Xenoglossy: Speaking in Foreign Tongues: absence of knowledge of a recognized language that is allegedly spoken at the rate of normal conversation, and allegedly involves someone who has authenticated the conversation.Ectoplasmic Materialization: definite claims to have produced physical substances, recognizable as people during trance, with the alleged authentication by others present.Reincarnation Memories: definite claims to have a certain knowledge about non-important people or events acquired through alleged memories or previous lives, occurring at a young age (less than five years).Agent to ESP: the alleged awareness of others of certain facts about the subject when the subject claimed to be in a crisis or actively trying to communicate.Automatic writing: the alleged production of interpretable, legible information, with either hand, while undertaking other tasks.Assigning a ProbabilityOnce the probabilities of Event A and B are determined, they are run through a Multiple Event Probability Calculator.Multiple Event Probability Formula :Probability of event A that occurs P(A) = n(A) / n(S).Probability of event A that does not occur P(A') = 1 - P(A).Probability of event B that occurs P(B) = n(B) / n(S).Probability of event B that does not occur P(B') = 1 - P(B).Probability that both the events occur P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B).Probability that either of event occurs P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B).Conditional Probability P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B).where,n(A) - number of occurrence in Event A,n(B) - number of occurrence in Event B,n(S) - total number of possible outcomes.In order for a location to be utilized for a positive control, the conditional probability P(A | B) must be at least .67 and P(A ∩ B) must be below.50Control Site (Negative Control)Control Sites are selected by one of two means.A suspected haunted location that has been debunked with 100% certainty orA known non-haunted location where the reports “paranormal activity” are created by the Charter’s State Coordinator.The ProcedureAll hypothesis tests are conducted the same way. The researcher states a hypothesis to be tested, formulates an analysis plan, analyzes sample data according to the plan, and accepts or rejects the null hypothesis, based on results of the analysis.1. State the hypotheses. Every hypothesis test requires the analyst to state a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis. The hypotheses are stated in such a way that they are mutually exclusive. That is, if one is true, the other must be false; and vice versa. For example, suppose we wanted to determine whether dowsing rods could detect ghostly activity. A null hypothesis might be that dowsing rods can detect ghostly activity. The alternative hypothesis might be dowsing rods cannot detect ghostly activity or ghosts do not exist. Symbolically, these hypotheses would be expressed asH0: p = 0.5 Ha: p <> 0.5Suppose we tested the dowsing rods in Test and Control Sites 50 times, resulting in 40 positive results in Control sites and 10 positive results in Test Sites. Given this result, we would be inclined to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.2. Formulate an analysis plan. The analysis plan describes how to use sample data to accept or reject the null hypothesis. It should specify the following elements.Significance level. The amount of evidence required to accept that an event is unlikely to have arisen by chance is known as the significance level or critical p-value. The p-value is the probability with which the observed event would occur, if the null hypothesis were true. If the obtained p-value is smaller than the significance level, then the null hypothesis is rejected. Often, researchers choose significance levels equal to 0.01, 0.05, or 0.10; but any value between 0 and 1 can be used.Test method. Typically, the test method involves a test statistic and a sampling distribution. Computed from sample data, the test statistic might be a mean score, proportion, difference between means, difference between proportions, z-score, t-score, chi-square, etc. Predominately, we use a two sample t-test. Given a test statistic and its sampling distribution, a researcher can assess probabilities associated with the test statistic. If the test statistic probability is less than the significance level, the null hypothesis is rejected.3. Analyze sample data. Using sample data, perform computations called for in the analysis plan.4. Test statistic. When the null hypothesis involves a mean or proportion, use either of the following equations to compute the test statistic.Test statistic = (Statistic - Parameter) / (Standard deviation of statistic) Test statistic = (Statistic - Parameter) / (Standard error of statistic)Parameter is the value appearing in the null hypothesis, and Statistic is the point estimate of Parameter. As part of the analysis, you may need to compute the standard deviation or standard error of the statistic.P-value. The P-value is the probability of observing a sample statistic as extreme as the test statistic, assuming the null hypothesis is true.Find degrees of freedom. The degrees of freedom (DF) is the number of independent observations in a sample minus the number of population parameters that must be estimated from sample data.For example, the exact shape of a t distribution is determined by its degrees of freedom. When the t distribution is used to compute a confidence interval for a mean score, one population parameter (the mean) is estimated from sample data. Therefore, the number of degrees of freedom is equal to the sample size minus one. If DF does not compute to an integer, round it off to the nearest whole number. Some texts suggest that the degrees of freedom can be approximated by the smaller of n1 - 1 and n2 - 1; but the above formula gives better results.5. Interpret the results. If the sample findings are unlikely, given the null hypothesis, the researcher rejects the null hypothesis. Typically, this involves comparing the P-value to the significance level, and rejecting the null hypothesis when the P-value is less than the significance level.6. Compute P-value. The P-value is the probability of observing a sample statistic as extreme as the test statistic. Since the test statistic is a t-score, use a t Distribution Calculator to assess the probability associated with the t-score, having the degrees of freedom computed above.7. Evaluate null hypothesis. The evaluation involves comparing the P-value to the significance level, and rejecting the null hypothesis when the P-value is less than the significance level.The Research PlanThe purpose of the research plan is to describe the what, why, and how of the proposal. This is the core of the proposal and will be reviewed with particular care. The what will be Part A: Specific Aims; the why, Part B: Background and Significance; and the how, Part C: Preliminary Results contributes to both the why and how. Part D: Research Design and Methods. The assessment of this research plan will largely determine whether or not the proposal is favorably recommended for funding.Recommended Length: The maximum length of the research plan is 25 pages. Content: The research plan should answer the following questions: What do you intend to do? Why is this worth doing? How is it innovative? What has already been done in general, and what have other researchers done in this field? Use appropriate references. What will this new work add to the field of knowledge? What have you (and your collaborators) done to establish the feasibility of what you are proposing to do? How will the research be accomplished? Who? What? When? Where? Why?Suggestions Make sure that all sections (A, B, C, and D--the what, why, and how of the proposal) are internally consistent and that they dovetail with each other. Use a numbering system, and make sections easy to find. Lead the reviewers through your research plan. One person should revise and edit the final draft. Show knowledge of recent literature and explain how the proposed research will further what is already known. Emphasize how some combination of a novel hypothesis, important preliminary data, a new experimental system and/or a new experimental approach will enable important progress to be made. Establish credibility of the proposed principal investigator and the collaborating researchers.RESEARCH PLAN PART A:Specific AimsPurpose: The purpose of the specific aims is to describe concisely and realistically what the proposed research is intended to accomplish. Recommended Length: The recommended length of the specific aims is one page. Content: The specific aims should cover: Broad, long-term goals; The hypothesis or hypotheses to be tested, and Specific time-phased research objectives.Suggestions: Generally, the Specific Aims section should begin with a brief narrative describing the long-term goals of the project and the hypothesis guiding the research. This is followed by a numbered list of the Aims. State the hypothesis clearly. Make sure it is understandable, testable and adequately supported by citations in the Background and by data in the Preliminary Results Sections. Be sure to explain how the results to be obtained will be used to test the hypothesis. Show that the objectives are attainable within the stated time frame. Be as brief and specific as possible. For clarity. Each aim should consist of only one sentence. Use a brief paragraph under each aim if detail is needed. Most successful applications have 2-4 specific aims. Don't bite off more than you can chew. A small, focused project is generally better received than a diverse, multifaceted project. Be certain that all aims are related. Have someone read them for clarity and cohesiveness. Focus on aims where you have good supporting preliminary data and scientific expertise.RESEARCH PLAN PART B: Background and SignificancePurpose: The purpose of the background and significance section is to state the problem to be investigated the rationale for the proposed research, the current state of knowledge relevant to the proposal and the potential contribution of this research to the problem addressed. Recommended Length: Approximately 3 pages Content: The background and significance section should cover: The rationale for the proposed project; The state of existing knowledge, including literature citations and highlights of relevant data; Gaps that the project is intended to fillSuggestions Make a compelling case for your proposed research project. Why is the topic important? Why are the specific research questions important? How are the researchers qualified to address these? Establish familiarity with recent research findings. Avoid outdated research. Use citations not only as support for specific statements but also to establish familiarity with all of the relevant publications and points of view. Your application may well be reviewed by someone working in your field. If their contributions and their point of view are not mentioned, they are not likely to review your application sympathetically. Make sure the citations are specifically related to the proposed research. Cite and paraphrase correctly and constructively. Highlight why research findings are important beyond the confines of a specific project i.e., how can the results be applied to further research in this field or related areas. Stress any innovations in-, experimental methods (e.g., new strategies, - research methods used, interventions proposed).RESEARCH PLAN PART C: Preliminary Results/Progress ReportPurpose: The purpose of the preliminary results section is to describe prior work by the investigators relevant to the proposed project. In a new application, the preliminary results are important to establish the experience and capabilities of the applicant investigators in the area of proposed research and to provide experimental support for the. Hypothesis and the research design. This section is not mandatory for new applications, but it is virtually impossible to obtain a favorable review without strong preliminary data. In a competing renewal application, this section becomes a progress report describing studies performed during the last grant period. Recommended Length: The recommended length of the preliminary results/progress report section is 6-8 pages. Content: The preliminary results section should include the following: Most importantly, a description of recent studies by the applicant investigators that establish the feasibility and importance of the proposed project; A brief description of older published studies by the applicant that provide important background information relevant to the proposed project; Results of previous studies by the applicant not directly relevant to the proposed project if they are needed to establish the applicant's competence and experience with the experimental techniques to be used in the proposed project.Suggestions All Tables and Figures necessary for the presentation of preliminary results must be included in this section of the application. Full-size glossy photographs of materials such as electron micrographs, gels, etc. may be included in the appendix, but only if a photocopy (reduced in size, as appropriate) is included in the body of the Research Plan. Figures and Figure legends must be legible. There are specific limits on type size given in the application instructions, but beyond these rules, the critical factor is whether the data are legible and convincing to the reviewers. Do not dwell on results already published. Summarize the critical findings in the text and include reprints of the full article in the appendix. Up to 10 publications can be included with the appendix material.RESEARCH PLAN PART D: Research Design and MethodsPurpose: The purpose of the research design and methods section is to describe how the research will be carried out. This section is crucial to how favorably an application is reviewed. Recommended Length: The maximum recommended length of the research design and methods section is 20 pages. Content: The research design and methods section should include the following: An overview of the experimental design; A detailed description of specific methods to be employed to accomplish the specific aims; A detailed discussion of the way in which the results will be collected, analyzed, and interpreted; A projected sequence or timetable (work plan); A description of any new methodology used and why it represents an improvement over the existing ones; A discussion of potential difficulties and limitations and how these will be overcome or mitigated; Expected results, and alternative approaches that will be used if unexpected results are found; Precautions to be exercised with respect to any procedures, situations, or materials that may be hazardous to personnel or human subjects.Suggestions Number the sections in this part of the application to correspond to the numbers of the Specific Aims. Give sufficient detail. Do not assume that the reviewers will know how you intend to proceed. Avoid excessive experimental detail by referring to publications that describe the methods to be employed. Publications cited should be by the applicants, if at all possible. Citing someone else's publication establishes that you know what method to use, but citing your own (or that of a collaborator) establishes that the applicant personnel are experienced with the necessary techniques. If relevant, explain why one approach or method will be used in preference to others. This establishes that the alternatives were not simply overlooked. Give not only the "how" but the "why." If employing a complex technology for the fast time, take extra care to demonstrate familiarity with the experimental details and potential pitfalls. Add a co-investigator or consultant experienced with the technology, if necessary. Document proposed collaborations and offers of materials or reagents of restricted availability with letters from the individuals involved.BUDGET AND JUSTIFICATIONPurpose: The purpose of the budget and justification is to present and justify all expenses required to achieve project aims and objectives. Content: The budget and justification should cover the following: Personnel; Consultants; Equipment; Supplies; Travel; and Other expenses, e.g., animal maintenance.Suggestions:Be realistic. Both "padding" and deliberately under budgeting reflect naiveté, which will be recognized by reviewers. Provide brief descriptions of duties for all positions listed in the budget, with the percentage of effort requested each year and any anticipated fluctuations. Special skills or accomplishments of a designated person may be included if not discussed elsewhere. If possible, try to identify specific individuals for each position requested. "To be named" personnel are very often deleted by reviewers. Justify all equipment purchases. The proposed acquisition of major pieces of equipment is likely to be scrutinized very carefully. Break out supply costs into major categories (reagents, disposables, etc.). Provide special justification for any unusual expenses requested. Detail and justify travel costs. Make sure they reflect current fares and lodging costs and that proposed travel is project related. Be complete but concise. There are no page limits in this section. Prorate service contracts to percentage of time equipment is used for this project.Experimental TestsScientific experiments are designed to test hypotheses to determine if the predictions made in the hypothesis are supported. Experimental designs are a function of the field of research, technological limitations and imagination of the scientist. Experiments can involve observations of objects and events in their natural environment, or the experimental manipulation of objects and events. Experiments must be repeatable.? Making more than one observation allows the scientist to understand how variable the measures are.? This allows 'confidence' to be placed on a generalization.? This process of replication also allows statistical tests to be used to evaluate observed differences.? In both situations, replication increases the number of observations. Replication strengthens the information that can be derived from these observations by taking into account natural variation or variation that is not related to the experimental manipulation. This is also achieved with a control, a parallel test in which all variables remain constant except for the variable being tested or manipulated. Both replication and control is the fundamental base of all scientific experiments.AnalysisA true hypothesis will give a true conclusion, but a false hypothesis, may give either a false or a true conclusion, due to other unknown variables. Therefore, science can only deal with truths in terms of probabilities. For this reason statistical analyses are performed on experimental data. Analyses help the scientist to determine the probability that a hypothesis is stating a truth.The acceptance or rejection of a hypothesis represents evidence, an answer to the question. If the hypothesis is rejected then new hypotheses with new experiments are designed. Evidence permits a scientist to regard a hypothesis with confidence. It does not offer proof. New evidence could always emerge that refutes a previously accepted hypothesis.A theory is simply a hypothesis that has been supported by convincing evidence often by many different researchers. A theory is not a truth and is still subject to scrutiny by new evidence. ................
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