Egg Markets Overview

Egg Markets Overview

A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

September 16, 2022

Wholesale prices for cartoned shell eggs advanced through the week on a combination of light supplies and offerings. Interest was moderate to good while the pace of trading was moderate to active. Wholesale prices for graded loose eggs posted similar gains on light to moderate supplies and limited and confidently-held offerings. Interest is moderate to good with pervasive concerns over the potential impact of the return of HPAI in commercial table egg flocks. Trading is moderate to active. The volume of trailer load loose egg sales this week increased 37% from the prior week with 23% for future delivery. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs rose $0.53 to $2.733 per dozen with a firm to higher undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for Large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers rose $0.75 to $3.27 per dozen with a steady undertone. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses increased $0.17 to $2.25 per dozen with a firm undertone. Prices paid to producers in the Midwest for Large cartoned shell eggs rose $0.63 to $2.69 per dozen with a firm undertone. The California benchmark for Large shell eggs increased $0.13 to $3.26 per dozen with a firm undertone. Delivered prices on the California-compliant wholesale loose egg market increased $0.58 per dozen to $3.28 per dozen with a firm undertone.

Consumer demand for shell eggs rose sharply into the middle of the month. Shell eggs as a protein source remain a relative bargain in stores across the country, a point some retailers are driving home over the last and current ad cycles as features for conventional caged eggs return to circulars following a period of slow activity over the past few months. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) remains a concern in the industry as recent outbreaks in commercial table egg flocks have marketers looking to maintain sufficient stocks to meet the rising demand. Demand from egg products manufacturers has eased and weekly production has moved lower since mid-August to levels below the trend of recent years, down 6% from a year ago this past week. However, eggs for breaking as a percentage of total shell eggs has not changed and much of the decline is due to a 6% decrease in weekly total egg production from a year ago. Egg product pricing has been slowing adjusting down from its HPAI-induced highs from earlier in the year but remains historically high. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor, in August, the Consumer Price Index for eggs rose 2.9%, 40% over the level of August 2021, to an average price of $3.12 per dozen.

Promotional activity for conventional caged shell eggs in retail outlets increases again this week and the average ad price moves $0.12 lower to $1.24 per dozen. Retail purchases for delivery into this week were estimated to be down 9% from the prior week estimate. Promotional activity for specialty shell eggs is up three-fold this cycle and led by again by organic shell eggs. Feature activity for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs continues at a limited pace and accounts for 8% of all shell egg types on feature. The average ad price declines $0.16 to $2.74 per dozen. The average ad price spread between 12-packs of Large caged eggs and UEP cage-free eggs narrows by $0.04 per dozen to a spread of $1.50 per dozen.

Weekly Loose Shell Egg, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)

315

2020 270

225

180

135

90

45

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

A

S

O

2021

2022

N

D

Weekly U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)

40

2020

2021

2022

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

A

S

O

N

D

Month-to-Month % Change in Consumer Price Index - Eggs

Bureau of Labor Statistics (seasonally adjusted)

20%

15%

10% 2.9%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2022

2021

2020

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: USDA AMS Livestock & Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

Egg Markets Overview

The overall inventory of shell eggs declined 4.5% and the nation-wide inventory of Large eggs was down 8%. Stocks of Large eggs in the key Midwest production region decreased 3.5%. Eggs cleared marketing channels over the recent Labor Day period as consumer demand for shell eggs rose despite limited promotional activity at retail outlets. The inventory share of Large class shell eggs declined 1.5% at a 48% share of all shell egg stocks on inventory at the start of the week. Stocks of cage-free eggs declined 8%, signaling movement into retail outlets to support increased featuring. The inventory of nutritionally-enhanced shell eggs gained 18% as eggs were staged to support anticipated increases in retail promotional activity. Organic egg stocks were up a half percent following good clearance last week and ongoing retail features. Breaking stock inventories gained 4.5% as breakers slowed production and worked spot market offerings to maintain their needs. Total estimated table egg production with latest NASS data was unchanged from last week and from last year to an estimated deficit of 9.5 million cases. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor, in August, the Producer Price Index for eggs fell 27.3 from July, 210% over the level of August 2021.

Wholesale prices for breaking stock in the Central States moved sharply higher, up $0.37 to $2.00 per dozen with a firm undertone. As carton demand surges, offerings to the breaking market are light. Supplies are moderate but the surplus resulting from the Labor Day break is quickly being used up. Demand varies with most trying to limit their exposure to the spot market. Schedules are normal to reduced and trading is slow to moderate. The volume of eggs processed over the past week declined 4%, representing a 29% share of weekly table egg production. Production of whole egg declined 8.5% while component parts were both up, whites by 2% and yolks by 10%. Dried egg production was about unchanged while inedible production was down 14%. Breaking yields without inedible were down a quarter pound to 41.27 pounds per case broken.

Wholesale prices for liquid yolk are higher with other products untested. Offerings are light, demand is moderate to good, and trading is moderate to active. Prices on frozen whole eggs were unchanged at $2.00 per pound and those for frozen whites were steady at $1.45 per pound. The undertone is steady to firm. Offerings are light to moderate while supplies are light to moderate. Demand is moderate to good and trading is moderate to instances active. Prices for dried whole eggs are steady at $11.50 per pound while prices for dried yolk rose $1.10 to $15.00 per pound and albumen prices were untested. The undertone is steady to higher. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate. Interest is moderate to good and trading is moderate to active.

According to NASS, the July monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage decreased 3% from June, 14% below the year ago level. Stocks of whole frozen egg gained 4% from last month and were 25% under year ago levels. The share of whole egg stocks rose 2% to a 36% share of total frozen stocks. Stocks of frozen yolk decreased 20%, 21% below last year's level. Stocks of frozen egg whites increased 10%, 5% over 2021 levels. Stocks of unclassified eggs decreased 9%, 8% under 2021 levels. The share of unclassified frozen stocks decreased 3% to 49% of total frozen stocks.

Cage-free commitments as of August 2022 remain about unchanged, requiring 66.7 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet 100% of needs from an approximate cage-free flock of 221 million hens (73% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 133.5 million hens from the current non-organic cage-free flock of 87 million hens. The average lay rate for non-organic, barn/aviary cage-free production is currently estimated at 82.5%.

Source: USDA AMS Livestock & Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

Weekly Eggs Processed (30-dozen cases)

1.8

1.7

million 30-dozen cases

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

2022

2021

2020

A

S

O

N

D

total -4.3%

Eggs Processed - Week-to-Week Change

share

whole whites

yolks

dried

-1.4%

-8.5%

1.8%

10.2%

0.2%

inedible -14.1%

Consumer Price Index Average Price Data - Large A Shell Eggs per Dozen

Bureau of Labor Statistics

2022

2021

3.30

3.12 3.00

2.94

2.70

2.86

2.71

2.52

2.40

2.10

2.05

2.01

1.80

1.93

1.50

1.20

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Dec

Producer Price Index Monthly Percent Change - Large Shell Eggs (WPU01710703)

Bureau of Labor Statistics

2022

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-27.3%

-60%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

2021

2020

Oct

Nov

Dec

Egg Markets Overview

Shell Eggs Market Price Comparisons

(as of September 16, 2022)

(National Index on a loose-egg basis, all other prices for cartoned eggs; LG White avg prices in cents per dozen)

sector markup

-2%

-16%

2%

prior current

loose

carton

carton

carton

carton

273.3 269.0 225.0 229.0 124.0

national index producer

delivered delivered store retail on ad

warehouse

door

Producer, warehouse, & store door = MW; retail no sale NY market; retail on sale Nat'l Retail Feature; loose eggs include minimal

Key Egg Markets Overview

16-Sep % Change

SHELL EGGS (Large, White, conventional in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices)

273.30

24%

New York, Cartoned (price to retailers)

327.00

30%

Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse)

225.00

8%

California, Cartoned, benchmark (cage-free )

326.00

4%

9-Sep

220.14 252.00 208.00 313.00

Recent History 2-Sep 26-Aug 19-Aug 12-Aug

181.29 227.00 207.00 312.00

190.67 227.00 200.00 288.00

181.11 219.00 202.00 260.00

143.06 219.00 249.00 297.00

National Retail Shell Egg (avg. ad price in dollars per dozen)

Conventional, Large, White

1.24

Cage-Free, Large, Brown

2.74

-9% 1.36 1.61 2.92 2.50 2.14 -6% 2.90 2.99 2.61 2.94 2.49

EGG PRODUCTS (f.o.b. dock prices; dollars per pound)

Central States Breaking Stock (dlvd prices per doz) 200.00

Whole Frozen Eggs

200.00

Whole Dried Eggs

11.50

Processed Share of Weekly Egg Production

29.0%

23% 0% 0% -1.4%

163.00 200.00

11.50 30.4%

163.00 220.00

12.00 31.3%

163.00 230.00

12.25 31.9%

163.00 164.00 230.00 225.00

12.25 12.75 32.1% 31.7%

SHELL EGG DEMAND INDICATOR (no units)

18.7

Source: USDA AMS Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

7.2 11.6

6.9

8.5

2.7

1.2

Key Shell Egg Markets Snapshot - 2022

(Large, White, Conventional Shell Eggs in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices) New York, Cartoned (price to retailers) Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse) 1 California, Cartoned, benchmark Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices) 1 Whole Frozen Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Whole Dried Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Conventional Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Cage-free2 Shell Egg Demand Indicator 1 mostly high; 2 non-organic

16-Sep 273.3 327.0 225.0 326.0 200.0 200.0 11.50 1.24 2.74 18.7

Change 24% 30% 8% 4% 23% 0% 0% -9% -6% 7.2

09-Sep 220.1 252.0 208.0 313.0 163.0 200.00 11.50 1.36 2.90 11.6

2022 High 283.4 25-Jul 343.0 21-Jul 324.0 25-Jul 370.0 25-Jul 260.0 05-Apr 320.0 01-Apr 16.00 01-Apr 2.92 26-Aug 3.02 22-Jul 18.7 14-Sep

2022 Low 71.4 12-Jan 126.0 13-Jan 111.0 18-Jan 194.0 07-Mar 73.0 07-Jan 115.0 07-Jan 4.12 07-Jan 0.86 28-Jan 2.11 11-Mar -11.4 06-Apr

Source: USDA AMS Livestock & Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

Egg Markets Overview

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