April 9, 2019 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

United States Department of Agriculture Forei gn Agricultural Service July 10, 2020

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Growth in Meat Imports Driven by China

Demand for imported meat in China remains incredibly strong as the protein deficit caused by African swine fever (ASF) continues to drive trade. Despite headwinds caused by COVID-19 and disruptions to the economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations. As a result, forecasts for pork, beef, and chicken meat imports are all revised upward. China continues to increase its share of the global market, accounting for over 43 percent of global pork imports and 29 percent of beef. All together, China now accounts for 28 percent of imports by major traders, up from 20 percent in 2019. Despite rising imports and growing production of chicken and beef, total meat consumption is expected to decline 4 percent this year. Beef

? The global beef production forecast for 2020 is revised down 1 percent from the prior forecast on lower-than-expected slaughter in Brazil, China, and North America. Temporary processing disruptions resulted in lower production forecasts for Canada and the United States, while yearover-year growth in China beef production is revised down in the face of stiff import competition. Meanwhile, depressed domestic beef demand and lower cattle prices in Brazil are causing producers to delay slaughter.

? The global beef export forecast for 2020 is unchanged at 10.7 million tons. Estimates for Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, and Mexico are revised higher while those for Canada and the United States are revised lower. Gains for both Argentina and Brazil reflect weak currencies and strong Chinese demand. Furthermore, the current economic environment has limited domestic beef demand, increasing exportable supplies. During 2020, Argentina and Brazil are

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expected to export 25 and 26 percent of their respective beef production. For Brazil, this is a record high while for Argentina it is the highest proportion since the 1970s. Meanwhile, Canada and U.S. exports are revised lower on temporary processing disruptions and weaker demand from major buyers.

Pork

? Global pork production is raised 2 percent from the previous forecast to 96.0 million tons on higher expected output in China. Rebuilding of the swine herd continues as producers recover from ASF and take advantage of record-high prices, resulting in a 6-percent increase in the forecast. However, hog supplies are well below historic levels and pork production is forecast 15 percent lower year-over-year. In the United States, slaughter plant closures and measures to address COVID-19 related guidelines drives a 2-percent reduction in the forecast for U.S. pork production since April. Production is also lowered 2 percent for Brazil on reduced slaughter expectations. The European Union has faced limited COVID-related impacts on slaughtering thus far and production is marginally lowered. Canada's production is raised due to strong demand for exports.

? Global pork exports are raised to 10.9 million tons, almost entirely on strong demand from China. China's imports are raised to 4.4 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 3.9 million tons. China's demand continues to buoy global demand while crowding out demand from several more price-sensitive markets. Imports are lowered for the Philippines. While production has fallen due to the spread of ASF, Philippine imports have been slow to rise due to limited cold storage capacity and weak demand in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector.

Chicken Meat

? The forecast for global chicken meat production is revised marginally lower to 100.0 million tons as declines in the United States and China are more than offset by growth in Brazil and the EU. Despite a dampening in the outlook, world production in 2020 remains higher (nearly 1 percent) versus last year. Demand will be relatively resilient as consumers pursue lower-priced animal protein in the face of an economic downturn.

? Global chicken meat exports are revised 1 percent higher to 11.8 million tons as robust China demand propels Brazil, Thailand, and U.S. shipments. Traditional leading global suppliers, Brazil and the United States, are expected to better withstand COVID-related trade disruptions compared to emerging exporters. As a result, Brazil and U.S. exports are forecast to increase their share of global trade to a combined 63 percent. With highly pathogenic avian influenza-related restrictions in place, the European Union is unable to capture the benefit of rising China imports. That constraint, partnered with depressed shipments to several key markets (Ukraine, South Africa, Vietnam, and Benin) spurs a downward revision to the EU export forecast.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

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Global Market Analysis

July 2020

Table of Contents

Beef and Veal

Beef Summary Tables................................................................................................ 4 Cattle Summary Tables.............................................................................................. 6

Pork

Pork Summary Tables................................................................................................. 8 Swine Summary Tables.............................................................................................. 10

Chicken Meat

Chicken Meat Summary Tables ................................................................................ 12

Notes to Readers................................................................................................... 14

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

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Global Market Analysis

July 2020

Production Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China European Union Hong Kong Japan Korea, South Mexico New Zealand Others Total Foreign United States Total

Total Dom. Consumption Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China European Union Hong Kong Japan Korea, South Mexico New Zealand Others Total Foreign United States Total

Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016

2017

2018

2019 Apr

2019 Jul

none

2,650 2,125 9,284 1,130 6,169 7,880

6 465 277 1,879 648 14,012 46,525 11,507 58,032

2,840 2,149 9,550 1,201 6,346 7,869

6 469 281 1,925 654 13,964 47,254 11,943 59,197

3,050 2,306 9,900 1,265 6,440 8,003

6 475 279 1,980 672 14,058 48,434 12,257 60,691

3,120 2,432 10,200 1,340 6,670 7,900

5 471 286 2,030 713 13,673 49,294 12,381 61,675

3,125 2,432 10,200 1,340 6,670 7,928

5 471 286 2,030 713 13,673 49,327 12,383 61,710 none

2,441 754

7,695 963

6,873 7,940

448 1,193

722 1,833

100 13,616 44,578 11,676 56,254

2,557 748

7,801 988

7,236 7,884

530 1,254

755 1,868

103 13,376 45,100 12,052 57,152

2,568 738

7,925 1,014 7,808 8,071

527 1,298

790 1,902

82 13,769 46,492 12,182 58,674

2,374 709

7,929 1,028 8,826 7,911

361 1,319

844 1,906

104 13,021 47,214 12,407 59,621

2,379 709

7,929 1,028 8,826 7,939

361 1,319

832 1,904

104 13,021 47,233 12,407 59,640

2020 Apr

3,085 2,085 10,310 1,375 6,950 7,800

5 475 291 2,065 675 13,901 49,017 12,515 61,532

2,425 699

7,850 1,003 9,429 7,790

335 1,336

840 1,905

79 13,486 47,177 12,389 59,566

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

2020 Jul

none

3,100 2,085 10,000 1,280 6,780 7,850

5 475 291 2,065 675 13,901 48,507 12,281 60,788 none

2,355 699

7,495 1,003 9,365 7,800

365 1,311

821 1,865

79 13,486 46,644 12,335 58,979

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

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Global Market Analysis

July 2020

Total Imports Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China European Union Hong Kong Japan Korea, South Mexico New Zealand Others Total Foreign United States Total

Total Exports Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China European Union Hong Kong Japan Korea, South Mexico New Zealand Others Total Foreign United States Total

Beef and Veal Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016

2017

2018

2019 Apr

2019 Jul

none

0 15 63 245 761 359 442 698 450 181 12 2,625 5,851 1,366 7,217

0 15 54 229 902 329 524 793 468 188 13 2,535 6,050 1,358 7,408

19 14 46 236 1,369 363 521 840 515 194 12 2,606 6,735 1,360 8,095

17 15 43 204 2,177 341 356 853 563 190 14 2,215 7,421 1,387 8,808

17 15 43 204 2,177 341 356 853 550 189 14 2,215 7,407 1,387 8,794 none

209 1,412 1,652

418 27

299 0 3 5

227 560 3,021 7,833 1,160 8,993

283 1,416 1,803

444 22

314 0 4 0

245 564 3,123 8,218 1,297 9,515

501 1,582 2,021

478 21

295 0 5 0

272 602 2,895 8,672 1,433 10,105

763 1,738 2,314

525 21

330 0 6 1

314 623 2,867 9,507 1,371 10,878

763 1,738 2,314

525 21

330 0 6 0

315 623 2,867 9,507 1,373 10,880

2020 Apr

15 14 40 210 2,500 310 330 870 550 160 14 2,374 7,387 1,334 8,721

675 1,400 2,500

590 21

320 0 6 1

320 610 2,789 9,232 1,433 10,665

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

2020 Jul

none

15 14 45 220 2,600 300 360 845 530 155 14 2,374 7,472 1,378 8,850 none

760 1,400 2,550

500 15

350 0 6 0

355 610 2,789 9,335 1,322 10,657

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

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Global Market Analysis

July 2020

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