April 9, 2019 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

[Pages:19]United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service October 12, 2021

Livestock and Poultry:

World Markets and Trade

China Continues to Drive Red Meat Trade

China Meat Imports (MMT CWE)

6

China Share of Global Meat Imports

50%

5

40%

4 30%

3

20% 2

1

10%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Pork Beef Chicken

0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Pork

Beef

Chicken

China pork production is expected to contract in 2022 as the hog sector adjusts to rapidly changing market conditions. Hog prices have fallen dramatically since the beginning of 2021 and have remained persistently low despite recent national holidays that usually mark an uptick in pork consumption. Market participants that could have easily made money for much of 2020 at exceptionally high prices may find it more difficult going forward, especially as input prices remain high. These dynamics will likely cause pork production to decline and imports to rise in 2022, particularly in the second half of the year. China pork imports are expected to reach nearly 4.8 million tons, up nearly 6 percent year-over-year, after falling in 2021 on rising pork production and depressed prices. However, they will remain below the 2020 record when disease-induced pork supply shortfalls were most acute.

Meanwhile, China beef imports and its share of global trade are expected to grow for the eighth consecutive year in 2022. Beef gained ground as China struggled with tight pork supplies over the past several years. Evolving consumer preferences and an improving foodservice environment will give beef a larger place in the Chinese diet than in the past while muted growth in domestic production will support imports.

China chicken meat imports are forecast to grow 3 percent in 2022 on increased consumer demand and the expectation that imported product will be competitively priced. However, China's share of global trade for chicken meat remains small compared to that of other meats. Global trade in chicken meat will instead be driven by broad recovery from pandemic-related disruptions as improving economic conditions are expected to lead many key players to reenter the global market.

Table of Contents

Beef and Veal

Overview..................................................................................................................... 3 Beef Summary Tables................................................................................................ 4 Cattle Summary Tables.............................................................................................. 6

Pork

Overview...................................................................................................................... 8 Pork Summary Tables................................................................................................. 9 Swine Summary Tables.............................................................................................. 11

Chicken Meat

Overview...................................................................................................................... 13 Chicken Meat Summary Tables ................................................................................ 14

Notes to Readers................................................................................................... 16

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

2

Global Market Analysis

October 2021

Beef and Veal

Global production is forecast up nearly 1 percent in 2022 on growth in Australia, Brazil, and India.

Australia production is expected to rebound 8 percent as improved pasture conditions have spurred herd rebuilding. Beef production will be driven by higher supplies of slaughter-ready cattle next year and an increase in carcass weights driven by a higher rate of male slaughter. Meanwhile, beef production in Brazil is expected to be supported by greater cattle availability and improved margins for slaughterhouses. In India, carabeef production will continue the recovery that began in 2021 after severe supply chain disruptions caused a sharp drop in production during 2020.

Global exports in 2022 are forecast 2 percent higher due to expectations of continued strong global

demand, particularly from Asia. Australia is expected to have higher exports on rebounding production, particularly in the second half of 2022. Meanwhile, Brazil exports are expected to be record large as demand continues to grow in top market China. In contrast, New Zealand exports will be constrained by tighter cattle supplies. Paraguay will likewise see exports contract as harsh weather this year led cattle to be marketed earlier than planned and will reduce availability in 2022. Despite the decline, Paraguay is still expected to achieve its second-highest export total on record.

U.S. production and exports: Production for 2022 is forecast down 3 percent as tighter cattle supplies

weigh on slaughter. Tightening U.S. beef supplies are expected to constrain exports, which are forecast 4 percent lower year-over-year. Meanwhile, production recovery in Australia is expected to increase competition in key Asian markets. However, U.S. exports are expected to remain elevated by historical standards, achieving the second-highest total on record.

Top Beef Exporters

MMT CWE

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 F 2022 F

Brazil

India

United States

Australia

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

3

Global Market Analysis

October 2021

Beef and Veal Production - Top Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Production Brazil China European Union India Argentina Mexico Australia Canada Russia South Africa Others Total Foreign United States Total

Total Dom. Consumption China Brazil European Union India Argentina Mexico Russia Japan United Kingdom Canada Others Total Foreign United States Total

9,550 6,346 6,951 4,230 2,840 1,925 2,149 1,201 1,325 1,046 6,798 44,361 11,943 56,304

7,237 7,801 6,582 2,444 2,557 1,868 1,780 1,254 1,256

988 8,094 41,861 12,052 53,913

9,900 6,440 7,067 4,240 3,050 1,980 2,309 1,265 1,357 1,027 6,827 45,462 12,256 57,718

7,808 7,925 6,753 2,729 2,568 1,902 1,790 1,298 1,268 1,014 8,212 43,267 12,181 55,448

10,200 6,670 6,964 4,270 3,125 2,027 2,432 1,342 1,374 1,019 6,834

46,257 12,385 58,642

8,826 7,929 6,698 2,776 2,379 1,901 1,758 1,319 1,136 1,029 8,216 43,967 12,409 56,376

10,100 6,720 6,883 3,760 3,170 2,079 2,125 1,314 1,378 950 6,792

45,271 12,389 57,660

9,486 7,609 6,521 2,476 2,365 1,898 1,708 1,295 1,168 1,047 7,965 43,538 12,531 56,069

9,500 6,830 6,840 4,100 3,045 2,120 1,915 1,450 1,380

985 6,928 45,093 12,684 57,777

9,810 6,997 6,475 2,550 2,333 1,990 1,655 1,285 1,135 1,078 8,071 43,379 12,615 55,994

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

2022 Oct

none

9,700 7,000 6,830 4,250 3,020 2,190 2,070 1,430 1,370

990 6,961 45,811 12,306 58,117 none

10,229 7,120 6,470 2,650 2,348 2,020 1,620 1,305 1,125 1,055 8,125

44,067 12,259 56,326

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

4

Global Market Analysis

October 2021

Beef and Veal Trade - Top Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Total Imports China Japan Korea, South Hong Kong United Kingdom Chile European Union Russia Egypt Malaysia Others Total Foreign United States Total

Total Exports Brazil India Australia European Union Argentina New Zealand Canada Uruguay Paraguay Mexico Others Total Foreign United States Total

902 793 468 524 500 273 392 469 250 199 1,479 6,249 1,358 7,607

1,803 1,786 1,416

761 283 564 444 409 366 245 686 8,763 1,297 10,060

1,369 840 515 521 502 308 422 449 300 204

1,586 7,016 1,360 8,376

2,021 1,511 1,582

736 501 602 478 436 358 272 709 9,206 1,433 10,639

2,177 853 550 356 407 347 435 401 340 197

1,648 7,711 1,387 9,098

2,314 1,494 1,739

701 763 623 525 436 339 315 757 10,006 1,373 11,379

2,782 832 549 513 407 342 351 363 230 206

1,606 8,181 1,516 9,697

2,539 1,284 1,473

713 819 638 513 411 371 343 794 9,898 1,339 11,237

3,000 815 595 460 385 380 320 320 300 240

1,650 8,465 1,445 9,910

2,575 1,550 1,290

685 720 650 595 480 480 330 820 10,175 1,549 11,724

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

2022 Oct

none

3,250 835 575 400 385 380 340 300 270 250

1,672 8,657 1,436 10,093 none

2,655 1,600 1,420

700 680 616 600 490 440 370 855 10,426 1,483 11,909

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

5

Global Market Analysis

October 2021

Cattle Stocks - Top Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Total Cattle Beg. Stks India Brazil China European Union Argentina Australia Russia Mexico Uruguay Canada Others Total Foreign United States Total

Production (Calf Crop) India Brazil China European Union Argentina Australia Mexico Russia New Zealand Canada Others Total Foreign United States Total

301,400 226,045

88,345 79,698 54,163 24,971 18,248 16,490 11,864 11,535 37,954 870,713 93,625 964,338

68,200 48,735 48,800 25,652 14,734

9,700 7,485 6,573 4,728 4,348 12,328 251,283 35,758 287,041

301,900 232,350

90,387 79,010 54,793 26,176 18,195 16,584 11,744 11,565 38,054 880,758 94,298 975,056

68,600 49,500 46,400 25,461 14,851

9,100 7,700 6,566 4,895 4,347 12,168 249,588 36,313 285,901

302,700 238,158

89,153 77,840 55,008 25,699 18,050 16,699 11,396 11,500 38,031 884,234 94,805 979,039

69,000 50,490 50,750 25,365 14,965

8,700 7,900 6,680 5,127 4,336 12,191 255,504 35,592 291,096

303,200 244,144

91,380 77,161 54,461 23,655 18,022 16,900 11,436 11,265 38,004 889,628 93,793 983,421

69,400 51,500 51,900 24,970 14,300

8,300 8,000 6,660 5,135 4,345 12,357 256,867 35,136 292,003

305,500 252,700

95,620 76,462 53,540 23,021 17,953 17,000 11,966 11,150 37,988 902,900 93,595 996,495

69,800 52,000 52,200 24,850 14,400

8,200 8,150 6,600 5,352 4,400 12,089 258,041 35,100 293,141

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

2022 Oct

none

306,700 263,800

99,500 75,725 53,450 23,821 17,798 17,258 11,956 10,980 38,127 919,115 92,000 1,011,115

none

70,000 53,300 52,500 24,740 14,500

8,600 8,300 6,525 5,065 4,350 12,066 259,946 34,700 294,646

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

6

Global Market Analysis

October 2021

Cattle Trade - Top Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Total Imports Canada China Egypt Russia Mexico Others Total Foreign United States Total

Total Exports Mexico European Union Australia Canada Uruguay Others Total Foreign United States Total

141 116 250

65 32 75 679 1,807 2,486

1,203 1,086

885 642 330 574 4,720 193 4,913

202 518 250 115

24 106 1,215 1,899 3,114

1,278 1,060 1,151

631 406 928 5,454 244 5,698

275 389 340 112

29 143 1,288 2,043 3,331

1,381 1,070 1,344

725 140 744 5,404 307 5,711

277 325 280

70 37 126 1,115 2,114 3,229

1,485 1,123 1,109

675 120 578 5,090 321 5,411

350 370 200

50 60 63 1,093 1,800 2,893

1,280 1,050

800 560 200 277 4,167 475 4,642

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

2022 Oct

none

360 350 200

70 45 68 1,093 2,000 3,093 none

1,460 1,050

900 570 220 361 4,561 325 4,886

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

7

Global Market Analysis

October 2021

Pork

Global production is forecast to decline 2 percent in 2022 to 104.2 million tons largely on lower production in

China. China pork production is expected at nearly 43.8 million tons, almost 5 percent below 2021. The precipitous decline in China hog prices since the beginning of 2021 is driving liquidation of hog inventories and is expected to tighten supplies of slaughter-ready pigs next year. Without high prices, margins have eroded, and producers will likely delay restocking or, in the case of smaller operators, perhaps exit the business altogether. Tighter supplies of pigs are expected to be exacerbated by a decline in carcass weights as low pork and high feed prices make the over-fattening seen in previous years uneconomical. Partially offsetting lower production in China will be a continued rebound in Vietnam where the management of African swine fever has protected producers from large-scale outbreaks. Plus, countries such as Brazil and Mexico will see their industry expand to take advantage of both a recovery in domestic demand and elevated export opportunities.

Global trade is expected to grow 2 percent in 2022, reaching 12.8 million tons, as tighter domestic supplies cause

import demand to strengthen in China. Meanwhile, major exporters will see additional support from firming demand in other East Asian markets as economic and foodservice conditions improve. This will more than offset lower demand from the Philippines where an end to temporarily reduced tariffs and higher quota volumes on pork will drive imports lower. Vietnam is also expected to see lower import demand next year on continued recovery in domestic pork supplies.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is forecast marginally lower in 2022 as lower pig inventories and

producers' intentions to farrow fewer sows in the latter part of 2021 keep supplies tight going forward. Nevertheless, U.S. exports are expected to rise 3 percent on improving demand in most major markets. Higher imports in China will support U.S. trade both directly and indirectly as major competitors shift product out of other East Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea. Additionally, pent-up consumer demand and improvement in the value of the peso will support shipments to Mexico.

Top Pork Exporters

MMT CWE

Top Global Importers, Excluding China

MMT CWE

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

2018

2019

2020

2021 F

1.75 +2%

1.50

1.25

+3%

1.00

0.75

+1%

0.50

0.25

2022 F

0.00 2018

2019

+2%

+2%

-3% +9%

2020

2021 F

2022 F

European Union

United States

Canada

Japan Mexico UK South Korea

Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Global Market Analysis

Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

8

October 2021

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