CAR Center for Automotive Research - Michigan House of ...

5/16/2019

Michigan Automotive Industry Update

Kristin Dziczek ? Vice President, Industry, Labor, & Economics (ILE) Group Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference

17 May 2019

THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR)

Automotive industry contract research and service organization (non-profit ) with more than 30 years experience forecasting industry trends, advising on public policy, and sponsoring multi-stakeholder communication forums.

RESEARCH

Independent research and analysis on critical issues facing the industry.

EVENTS

Industry-driven events and conferences that deliver content, context, and connections.

CONNECT

Consortia that bring together industry stakeholders to participate in working groups, networking opportunities, and access to CAR staff.

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AGENDA

? Sales & Production ? Employment ? Automaker Investments ? GM Announcements ? Trade Update

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Sales & Production Overview

Areas to Watch

? Michigan's share of U.S. vehicle production increased to 18.8%

? Michigan's engine production will decrease and transmission production will increase over the next few years

? Electrified vehicle market share increased to 4.4%, the highest level ever recorded

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Positive Factors in the CAR Forecast

Projected moderate U.S. economic output growth in 2019 Historically low U.S. unemployment rates Relatively low oil prices continue through 2020 Underlying nominal wage growth continues High levels of consumer confidence were reached in Q4 2018, and Solid new housing starts and home prices rebounding to pre-recession levels

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Risks to the Forecast

Section 232 Steel & Aluminum Tariffs

Section 301 China Tariffs U.S.-China Talks

China Auto Sales Slowdown USMCA Ratification ?

New ? Business

Models ? Competitors ? Technologies

Section 232 Auto & Parts Tariffs

U.S.-Japan Talks

Japan Economic Slowdown

U.S.-EU Talks BREXIT

U.S.-U.K. Talks

Recession?

Geopolitical Risks

Consumer Confidence Interest Rates

UAW Negotiations/Strike

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CAR's U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast 2019-2025

U.S. Sales

17.4

17.5

17.2

17.2

17.6 17.7 17.3

16.8

16.8

16.5 16.4

U.S. LV Sales in Millions

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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Source: CAR Research, January 2019

Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) Monthly SAAR

U.S. Light Vehicle Monthly Sales and SAAR:

April 2016 to April 2019

2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Sales

SAAR

Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

20 16.43 18

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Apr-19

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Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research

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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

Percent Change (YTD) Through April: 2019 vs. 2018

Total

Light Trucks

Passenger Cars

-8.5%

-10%

-8%

Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research

-2.2%

-6%

-4%

-2%

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5,323,276 -122,134 Total

100%

3,719,088

0.7%

+26,807 Truck

69.9%

1,604,188

-148,941 Cars

0%

2%

30.1%

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Percent Change in Sales of Light Vehicles Per OEM:

YTD Through April: 2019 vs. 2018

TOTAL LV Sales

-2.2%

Hyundai- Kia

Honda

1.5%

Ford

-2.4%

FCA

-3.9%

Toyota

-4.8%

GM

-6.0%

Nissan/Mitsubishi -6.7%

-8%

-6%

Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

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3.7%

4%

6%

5,322,611

-121,614 TOTAL LV Sales

100%

396,794

14,324 Hyundai- Kia

7.5%

495,562

7,370

Honda

9.3%

761,134

-18,820

Ford

14.3%

667,198

-27,247

FCA

12.5%

727,580

-36,809

Toyota

13.7%

896,013

-56,803

GM

16.8%

510,579

-36,950 Nissan/Mitsubishi

9.6%

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