BLUE BOOK

[Pages:7]BLUE BOOK

New-Car Market Report

MAY

2013

Automotive Insights from Kelley Blue Book

Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts:

Chintan Talati | Senior Director, Public Relations Joanna Pinkham | Senior Public Relations Manager Brenna Robinson | Public Relations Manager Natalie Kumaratne | Public Relations Coordinator

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NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:

April Sales Up 8.5 Percent as Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) Drops to 14.9 Million

- Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst, automotive insights, Kelley Blue Book

Daily Sales Rate, Units per Day

Daily Sales Rate Up 4.2 Percent in April

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2007

2011

2012

2013

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

In This Issue:

NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS April Sales Up 8.5 Percent as Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) Drops to 14.9 Million

Full-Size Car Segment Continues Descent

Lincoln MKZ Sales Surge as Inventory Woes Ease

Compact Crossovers Driving Industry Growth

Full-Size Pickup Truck Sales Buoyed by Strong Construction Sector

Mid-Size Pickup Sales Slowing, Tacoma Stays Strong

Mid-Size Sport Utility Sales Low, Stable

Camry Remains Atop Ultra-Competitive Mid-Size Segment for Now

Chevrolet Sonic Takes the Lead in Subcompact Sales

Toyota Prius: April Sales Fail to Surpass 2012 Figures

Ford Focus: April Sales Continue to Climb Year-OverYear

Hyundai Leads Compact Car Segment in Market Share

Daily Sales Rate, Year-Over-Year

Daily Sales Rate Growth Slows

12%

10%

9.6%

8%

8.0%

7.3%

6%

4.2% 4%

2%

0% Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? Sales improved only 4.2 percent in April, which is well below the pace through the first quarter.

Although growth has slowed, sales are up 6.9 percent yearto-date and remain on pace to hit our annual forecast of 15.3 million units. Modest improvements in the economy will keep sales steady through the rest of the year, in addition to present pent-up demand, increasingly favorable credit conditions and topnotch product offerings.

-Alec Gutierrez

NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:

continued

Full-Size Car Segment Continues Descent

Full-Size Car Segment in Decline

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

Market Share Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

? In April, full-size cars declined to 3.3 percent market share of the industry, with sales falling 10 percent from April 2012. Year-to-date, the full-size car segment is down 1.2 percent, which is far behind the overall industry's 6.9 percent increase.

? The full-size car segment could see strength in the next few months, following the April introductions of the redesigned Chevrolet Impala and Kia's all-new flagship Cadenza sedan.

? The recently redesigned Toyota Avalon continued its successful run in April, as sales more than doubled from one year ago. Since January 2013, the Avalon is up nearly 85 percent.

"In the long term, we don't believe full-size cars will improve market share," said Gutierrez. "Instead, we expect market share to flatten out in the 3 to 4 percent range. Full-size cars don't present a compelling value proposition for most since mid-size sedans offer similar space and utility with greater fuel economy for less."

Lincoln MKZ Sales Surge as Inventory Woes Ease

New-Car Listings May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

New-Car Sales

10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

Lincoln MKZ Inventory Improving

Source: ATC Listings

Lincoln MKZ Sales Rebound

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000

500 0

Source: Ford Motor Co. Press Releases

"Following months of production delays and lengthy quality inspections, Lincoln MKZ inventory improved, marking its best ever month of sales and pointing toward a brighter future for Ford's luxury division," said Gutierrez. "Although Lincoln was off to a slow start through Q1, it finally has enough product on the ground to satisfy demand."

? Average transaction prices for entry-luxury cars in April increased 1.8 percent to $37,778, while transaction prices of the Lincoln MKZ increased by 11.5 percent.

? In April, entry-luxury car sales increased 13.9 percent from last year on strong numbers from the Lincoln MKZ and Lexus ES. Since January, the entry- luxury segment is up over 10 percent, with sales being led by the Mercedes-Benz C-Class.

2 BLUE BOOK New-Car Market Report MAY 2013

NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:

continued

Compact Crossovers Driving Industry Growth

Market Share

Share of Compact Crossovers Increasing

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

2011

2012

2013

0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

Make Honda Ford Chevrolet Toyota Nissan Subaru GMC Mazda Jeep Jeep

Model CR-V Escape Equinox RAV4 Rogue Forester Terrain CX-5 Patriot Compass

Apr-13 26,519 25,826 20,965 18,541 11,904 9,366 7,964 6,262 5,792 4,465

YTD 2013 91,893 98,809 79,834 59,954 46,200 30,510 34,770 24,073 24,789 16,468

YTD YOY % YOY % Chg Chg

12.2%

-6.4%

52.0%

30.7%

14.7%

14.3%

22.0%

8.9%

39.0%

-5.4%

65.3%

35.4%

1.6%

15.8%

77.8% 220.7%

10.1%

16.8%

23.5%

29.4%

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? April was another big month for compact crossovers, as sales increased 28.9 percent from last year and market share grew to 12.9 percent of the industry; an all-time high. The total 165,264 units sold was the second highest total ever, trailing only March of this year.

? Sales gains were paced by the Ford Escape and Toyota RAV4, both of which were redesigned for model-year 2013. However, each of the top 10 models in the segment posted year-over-year increases in April.

? Transaction prices also increased within the segment, climbing 3.3 percent to $26,765. Prices on the Escape jumped 5.5 percent to $28,831, while the RAV4 transacted 4.6 percent higher than last year at $27,025.

Full-Size Pickup Truck Sales Buoyed by Strong Construction Sector

New Housing Starts (In Thousands)

Full-Size Truck Sales

Monthly Full-Size Pickup Truck Sales Volume and New Housing

Construction Starts

180,000

90

160,000

80

140,000

70

120,000

60

100,000

50

80,000

40

60,000

30

40,000

20

20,000 0

10

2013 Truck Sales

2012 Truck Sales

2013 Housing Starts

2012 Housing Starts

0

January

February

March

April

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, U.S. Census Bureau New Residential Housing Units Started (Not Seasonally Adjusted Total Units)

"Sales of full-size pickup trucks are closely tied to new home construction starts and with new home starts on the rise, we expect continued growth in the pickup segment," said Gutierrez. "This is great news for manufacturers since pickup trucks tend to be the most profitable vehicles by a significant margin."

? Total year-to date sales of new full-size pickup trucks are 20.2 percent higher at the end of April 2013 than April 2012.

? Total new housing starts in 2013 are well above 2012 levels, ending 47 percent higher in March 2013 than March 2012.

3 BLUE BOOK New-Car Market Report MAY 2013

NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:

continued

Mid-Size Pickup Sales Slowing, Tacoma Stays Strong

Share of Segment Sales Total Sales

Total Sales of Mid-Size Pickups and Model Sales Share

80%

35,000

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

0%

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

Total Sales Canyon Colorado Dakota Equator Frontier Ranger Ridgeline Tacoma Linear (Total Sales)

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? Several manufacturers have ended production of their mid-size pickup models, and sales for the segment are in decline.

? As total sales for mid-size pickups decreased, the Toyota Tacoma and Nissan Frontier noticeably increased their market share within the segment. The Tacoma rose from 38 percent share of total sale in January 2012 to 64 percent in April 2013. The Frontier rose from a 16 percent share to 25 percent during the same period.

? While segment sales have dwindled overall, the Tacoma has seen a healthy increase in sales volume so far this year with 52,438 units sold through April, a 22 percent increase year-over-year, while Frontier sales declined slightly to 17,333 units, a 5 percent decrease year-over-year.

Mid-Size Sport Utility Sales Low, Stable

Market Share

Mid-Size Sport Utility Segment

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

2007

2012

2013

0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? While the mid-size sport utility segment is down 5 percentage points from 2007 market share levels, it seems to have found an equilibrium point at around 2.5 percent of market share.

"This year is trending right in line with last year's market share numbers and we expect this to continue throughout the year," said Gutierrez. "As consumers and manufacturers look more closely at fuel-economy, the number of mid-size sport utility models has dwindled from 20 models in 2007 to only eight models in 2013 with no new model introductions in sight."

4 BLUE BOOK New-Car Market Report MAY 2013

NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:

continued

Camry Remains Atop Ultra-Competitive Mid-Size Segment for Now

Mid-Size Sedan Sales YTD

140,000 120,000 100,000

Daily Sales Rate Growth Slows

132,540

121,965

108,943 107,280

80,000 60,000

70,913

63,362

53,491

40,000

20,000

0 Camry

Accord

Altima

Fusion

Malibu

Sonata

Optima

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? The Toyota Camry remains atop the segment although the Honda Accord, Nissan Altima and Ford Fusion have significantly closed the gap. Although the Camry is up year-to-date, Accord led the segment in April, while Altima led in March.

"With so many competitive offerings now available to consumers in the mid-size segment, the Camry is expected to lose ground to the Honda Accord, Ford Fusion and Nissan Altima," said Gutierrez. "The Ford Fusion has made tremendous strides in the previously Japanese dominated mid-size segment. The success of the Fusion highlights how quickly consumer perceptions can change once a manufacturer introduces a top notch product redesign."

Accord Camry Fusion Altima Malibu Sonata Optima

New Mid-Size Car Sales

13-Apr YTD

YOY

33,538 121,965 -5.20%

31,710 132,540 -13.90%

26,722 107,280 23.70%

21,991 108,943 35.40%

21,734 70,913 -0.80%

16,077 63,362 -21.70%

14,678 53,491 33.20%

YTD YOY 26.40% -6.80% 25.40% -3.20% -11.90% -16.30% 15.30%

Top Seven Mid-Size Sedans Sales in April: ? The leader for April was the Honda Accord.

? Year-to-date, the Accord is up 26.4 percent year-over-year, while the Camry is down 6.8 percent.

? Year-to-date, the Fusion also had a significant improvement of 25.4 percent yearover-year.

? With the Camry now facing stiff competition, the Honda Accord is poised to potentially overtake Camry for segment leadership with the Fusion and Altima not too far behind.

Chevrolet Sonic Takes the Lead in Subcompact Sales

Sales, Units

18,000 16,000 14,000

Subcompact Vehicle Sales

Top Six Subcompact Vehicle Market Share:

Make

Model

Market Share

12,000 10,000

- Hyundai Accent - Ford Fiesta

Chevrolet Sonic

15.30%

8,000

- Kia Rio

Nissan

Versa

13.40%

6,000

- Chevrolet Sonic

4,000

- Nissan Versa

Ford

Fiesta

11.40%

2,000

Hyundai Accent

8.90%

0

Kia

Rio

8.50%

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

Honda

Fit

8%

? In April, the Chevrolet Sonic overtook the Nissan Versa in small car market share, selling 8,151 units for a substantial 18 percent increase month-over- month against the Nissan Versa's 7,155 units sold, or a 55 percent decrease from last month.

"Nissan Versa sales most likely plummeted in April due to a shortage in inventory following the ramp-up in sales in February and March," said Gutierrez. "The Versa will likely bounce back and regain its No. 1 spot in the segment due its low price point, which is especially appealing to subcompact buyers."

5 BLUE BOOK New-Car Market Report MAY 2013

NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:

continued

Toyota Prius: April Sales Fail to Surpass 2012 Figures

Sales, Units 2013 Market Share

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

5,000 0

Toyota Prius New-Vehicle Sales

25,168

13,056

12,477

19,889

Apr-2007

Apr-2011

Apr-2012

Apr-2013

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

Prius Share of Alt. Energy Segment

80% 70%

0.698548636

60%

50%

40%

30%

20% 10%

0.12273311

0.051273523

0.050589876

0.040797095

0% Prius

C-Max

Volt

Leaf

CT

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? Toyota Prius new-car sales in April 2013 failed to surpass year-over-year sales figures. Toyota Prius new-car sales dropped 10.2 percent month-over-month with an even larger 21 percent decline year-over-year.

? The large drop in sales is most likely due to lower fuel prices and an increase in fuel efficiency from its gas-powered competition.

"The Toyota Prius still commands a dominating 69 percent market share, far outpacing the rest of the hybrid segment," said Gutierrez. "The Ford C-Max, its closest competitor in terms of market share, only holds 12.5 percent of the hybrid market."

Ford Focus: April Sales Continue to Climb Year-Over-Year

Sales, Units

25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

5,000 0

Ford Focus New-Vehicle Sales

16,626

14,107

17,265

19,425

22,557

Apr-2007

Apr-2010

Apr-2011

Apr-2012

Apr-2013

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? Ford Focus new-car sales for April beat year-over-year sales by an impressive 16.1 percent, or 3,132 units.

"Despite the Focus declining 9.5 percent on a month-over-month basis, it still managed to outperform the compact car segment as a whole, which was down a more than 12.1 percent month-over-month," said Gutierrez.

6 BLUE BOOK New-Car Market Report MAY 2013

NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:

continued

Hyundai Leads Compact Car Segment in Market Share

Sales, Units 16,161

21,881 13,933

23,822 20,808

22,713 18,124

24,999 24,929

27,665 28,846

31,423 22,557

26,453 27,565

24,273

50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

5,000 0

Compact Car Segment - Vehicle Sales by Make

- Ford

- Honda

- Hyundai

- Toyota

Jan-2013

Feb-2013

Mar-2013

Apr-2013

Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

? In April, Hyundai overtook Toyota for largest market share within the compact car segment.

"Despite a month-over-month decline in compact car sales, Hyundai was able to gain the top spot in market share due to slight share increases in both the Elantra and Veloster, but most importantly due to a significant drop in the Toyota Corolla from 14.3 percent market share to 12.6 percent, or a 22.8 percent drop month-over-month," said Gutierrez.

The statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to change without notice. This publication has been prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions.

About Kelley Blue Book ()

Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource?, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website , including its famous Blue Book? Trade-In and Suggested Retail Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies as well as governmental agencies. provides consumer pricing and information on cars for sale, minivans, pickup trucks, sedan, hybrids, electric cars, and SUVs. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of AutoTrader Group.

7 BLUE BOOK New-Car Market Report MAY 2013

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