US Automobile: Sales, Financing and Used Vehicle Insights

[Pages:36]US Automobile: Sales, Financing and Used Vehicle Insights

Mike Buckingham Senior Director Auto Finance JD Power Data & Analytics

Agenda

? JD Power "PIN" Data; Background/Source ? New Vehicle Data; Auto Sales, Trends, Incentives and Outlook ? Used Vehicle Data; Prices, Supply, Forecast and Outlook ? Automobile Financing; Financing Type, Lender Segment Share, Credit

Mix, Term Mix, LTV's and Pricing and Outlook

JD Power "PIN" Data Background/Source

? "PIN" is an acronym for the "Power Information Network."

? We receive daily transactional data containing approximately 45% of all Vehicle Sales records from the Franchised New Car Dealers in the US.

? Data is sourced from the dealers "DMS" (dealer management system). ? Retail Sales data is published in PIN, Fleet/Commercial is excluded.

? Credit Score Data referenced is derived from Trans Union, FICO Auto `08.

Source: Power Information Network ? PIN, a business division of J.D. Power and Associates The credit scores provided within this application have been provided by FICO? Risk Score, Auto 08 FICO? is a registered trademark of Fair Isaac Corporation in the United States and other countries

New Vehicle Data;

Auto Sales, Trends, Incentives and Outlook

New Retail Sales

2017 Slightly Down, Again We forecast a modest drop of 200K units from 2017.

Industry Retail Sales (Millions)

14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8

13.6

14 15 16 17 18F

5

New Vehicle Transaction Prices

Still breaking records. Transaction Prices are at Record Highs. Forecasted to climb even higher in 2018.

Selling Price, Net of Incentives (Thousands)

$32.6 $31.0 $30.6 $29.8 $28.9

14 15 16 17 18F

6

Challenge: Passenger Car Sales Mix

Passenger Car Slump Continues;

- Mix down to 32% in 2018

- Major Challenge for the Industry

Car % of Retail Sales (Mar YTD) 47% 43% 41% 37% 32%

14 15 16 17 18

7

New Vehicle Incentives

Rising (but more Slowly) so far in 2018 Year End 2017 had a record level of $4,400 per unit. December 2017 incentives were 11% of MSRP, - 13.3% per car, 9.5% per Truck

Incentives/Unit (Thousands)

$4.0

18 17

16 15

14

Jan Mar

?

Jun Sep

$4.4 $4.0 $3.5 $3.3

Dec

8

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