UTAH KEY ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

UTAH KEY ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Millions of Jobs Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19

Unemployment Rate

Utah gained 45,200 jobs between June 2018 and June 2019, an increase of 3.0% (ranks 2nd); national growth over this time period was 1.5%. Utah's employment base has grown 382,800 jobs since hitting a trough at the beginning of 2010, growth of 32.6% over this time is the strongest in the nation.

Utah's unemployment rate was 2.8% in June (45,200 unemployed Utahns). The US unemployment rate was 3.7% in June of this year. Utah's unemployment rate is currently the 5th lowest in the nation.

EMPLOYMENT PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Nonfarm Employment (mil., sa) & Unemployment Rate (sa)

1.56 1.55

Jobs

Unemployment Rate

5.0% 4.5%

1.54

4.0%

1.53 1.52

3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

1.51

2.0%

1.50

1.5%

1.49

1.0%

Note: Vertical axes do not begin at zero.

Nonfarm Employment Change: Jun 2018 - Jun 2019

Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, trans., utilities Information Financial activities Prof. and bus. services Educational and health Leisure and hospitality Other services Gov't, education Gov't, exc. education

0%

2.1% 2.1% 1.3% 1.6%

1.0% 1.6% 2.4% 2%

4.7% 4.4% 4.0%

5.0% 3.8%

4%

6%

All of Utah's ten private industrial sectors posted employment growth over the last 12 months.

Education and health services (+9,900), professional and business services (+8,600) and manufacturing (+6,300) posted the largest job gains in the private sector. The highest private sector growth rates were posted in education and health services (+5.0%), manufacturing (+4.7%), and information (+4.4%).

STATE REVENUE

Preliminary year-end results for revenue to the General and Education Funds totaled $7.5 billion, representing a year-over growth rate of 7.2% and a tentative surplus calculation of $97 million for Fiscal Year 2019. While this 7.2% growth rate is well above the consensus revenue target of 5.7%, above-target income tax collections driving an Education Fund surplus of $140 million are offsetting a currently estimated $43 million General Fund shortfall, with this General Fund deficit strongly influenced by lagging sales tax collections.

Personal Income

General Fund & Education Fund Revenue ($ millions)

$8,000 $6,000

FY 2019 YTD Actual FY 2019 YTD Forecast*

$4,000

$2,000

$0

*Consensus Forecast distributed based on historical collections

Utah Personal Income Amount & Growth Rate

Billions of Dollars

150

Amount

Growth Rate (saar)

145

140

135

130

125

120 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19

Note: Vertical axes do not begin at zero.

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Personal income grew at an annual rate of 4.4% from Q1 2018 to Q1 2019, to $147 billion. Over the past two years, personal income has been on a steady upward trend.

As the single most comprehensive measure of economic performance available on a timely basis, the recent path of personal income indicates Utah is growing steadily and sustainably.

Last Updated 7/30/2019

HOME PRICE & FORECLOSURE

Utah Median Home Price & Foreclosure Rate

$350,000

1.2%

Median Sales Price (sa)

$330,000

Foreclosure Rate

1.0%

$310,000

0.8%

$290,000

0.6%

$270,000

0.4%

$250,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19

Note: Vertical axes do not begin at zero. Source:

0.2%

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

The median sales price for homes in Utah increased from $321,365 to $343,927 between Q1 2018 and Q1 2019. Prices are up 7.0% year-over. Nationally, the median price increased 3.7% over last year to $265,800 in Q1 2019.

Utah's foreclosure rate peaked in the Q1 2010, when an estimated 3.4% of all loans were in foreclosure. The state's Q1 2019 rate of 0.3% is the 2nd lowest in the nation. The national foreclosure rate in Q1 2019 was 0.9%. The highest rate was in New York (2.5%), the lowest was in Colorado (0.3%).

At $7.1 billion, Utah's May 2019 year-to-date international merchandise export activity was up 24% over the same period last year. Excluding primary metal exports (largely gold), activity was at $3.35 billion, up 5.1% year-over.

Utah's largest exports in 2018 were primary metals ($6.4 billion) and computer and electronic products ($1.6 billion). Utah's largest trading partners were United Kingdom ($5.1 billion), China, ($2 billion) and Canada ($1.8 billion).

SIGNIFICANT ACCOLADES AND RANKINGS

Economic Indicators Job Growth Unemployment Rate Median Household Income Average Annual Pay Per Capita Personal Income Total Personal Income Growth

Demographic Indicators Population Growth Life Expectancy Median Age Household Size

Social Indicators Poverty Rate Adults w/ High School Degree

Rank 2 3.0% 5 2.8%

12 $71,319 31 $48,507 41 $45,340 14 4.4%

Period Jun 18-Jun 19

Jun 19 2017 2018 2018

Q1 18-Q1 19

3 1.9% 10 80.2

1 31.0 1 3.13

2017-2018 2010 2018 2017

7 10.2% 10 92.1%

2016 2017

Adults w/ 4-Yr College Degree

13 34.9%

2017

KEY RATES, PRICES, AND INDICES

CURRENT

Weekly Indicators, Week ending July 19, 2019 3-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

1.79%

30-Year Conventional Mortgage Dow Jones Industrial Average

3.81% 27,258

Oil: WTI Price per Barrel

$57.32

UT Unleaded Gas: Price per Gallon US Unleaded Gas: Price per Gallon

$2.42 $2.28

Monthly Indicators, Month ending June 2019 ISM Manufacturing Index (Diffusion)

51.70

Consumer Confidence Index (y/y%)

-4.4%

US Retail Sales (y/y%) Inflation: Consumer Price Index (y/y%)

3.4% 1.7%

Last Updated 7/30/2019

Utah Non-Primary-Metal Exports: YTD Activity ($ bil.)

$10

$8

2019

$6

2018

$4

$2

$0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Utah AAA Bond Rating

Moodys, S&P, Fitch (January 2019)

Utah #1, Best State for Jobs

U.S. & World News Report (2019)

Utah #1, Fiscal Management

Conning's State of the States Report (June 2019)

Utah #1, Most Independent State

Fox Business (June 2019)

Utah #1, Economic Outlook

ALEC-Laffer State Economic Competetiveness Index (2018)

Notes: (1) Rankings are based on the most recent data available for all states. (2) The job growth rate is based on national data from BLS, which may differ from other sources. (3) Rank is most favorable to least favorable.

TREND

12-MONTH HIGH 12-MONTH LOW

3.02% 4.94% 27,258 $75.13 $3.20 $2.97

1.70% 3.73% 22,718 $45.22 $2.40 $2.28

60.80 12.2%

6.6% 2.9%

51.70 -4.4% 1.4% 1.5%

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