Annual Rates for 2009 and 2010

[Pages:36]U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics

November 2011, NCJ 236018

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008

Annual Rates for 2009 and 2010

Alexia Cooper and Erica L. Smith, BJS Statisticians

Contents

Overview

Long term trends and patterns

2

Demographic--

Trends by age

4

? Children under age 5

6

? Elders age 65 or older

8

Trends by sex

9

Trends by race

11

Trends by age, sex, and race

14

Victim/offender relationship

16

Intimate homicide

18

Family homicide

21

Law enforcement officers killed

23

Multiple victims and offenders

24

Circumstances

26

Trends by weapon type

27

Trends by city size

29

Clearances

31

Justifiable homicides

32

Additional information about the data 34

This report contains a series of tables and figures that describe homicide patterns and trends in the United States from 1980 through 2008. It also includes overall homicide rates for 2009 and 2010 (for which detailed data are not yet available).

Data in this report are from the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR), unless otherwise noted. The SHR Program of the FBI collects yearly supplementary homicide data regarding homicides committed in the United States. Statistics in this report detail homicide trends by age, sex, and race, including homicides of children under age 5 and of persons age 65 or older. It examines the relationship between the victim and the offender, particularly in cases of intimate and family homicide. The report also examines multiple victim and offender homicides, circumstances surrounding the death, justifiable homicides, law enforcement officers killed, homicides cleared, and homicide trends by city size and weapon use.

These data may differ slightly from previously published versions because of updates to the data file, changes to the imputation methods used, and refinements in the analyses. (See Methodology for more information on the imputation methods used in this report.) In addition, analyses presented here include data from 1980 through 2008 only. This modification was made, in part, to reflect revisions in the SHR in 1980.

The SHR are available at the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data. Spreadsheets used to generate the figures in this report are available on the BJS website.

BJS

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

FIGURE 1 Homicide victimization rates, 1950?2010 Rate per 100,000 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Note: Data are based on annual estimates of homicide from previously published versions of Crime in the United States. Data for 1989 to 2008 re ect updated homicide estimates from Crime in the United States, 2008. Data for 2009 and 2010 re ect updated homicide estimates from Crime in the United States, 2010. Source: FBI, Uniform Crime Reports, 1950-2010.

FIGURE 2 Number of homicide victims, 1950?2010

Number 25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Note: Data are based on annual estimates of homicide from previously published versions of Crime in the United States. Data for 1989 to 2008 re ect updated homicide estimates from Crime in the United States, 2008. Data for 2009 and 2010 re ect updated homicide estimates from Crime in the United States, 2010. Source: FBI, Uniform Crime Reports, 1950-2010.

Long term trends and patterns

In the last decade (since 2000) the homicide rate declined to levels last seen in the mid-1960s

e homicide rate doubled from the early 1960s to the late 1970s, increasing from 4.6 per 100,000 U.S. residents in 1962 to 9.7 per 100,000 by 1979 ( gure 1). (See Methodology for information on rate calculations.)

In 1980 the rate peaked at 10.2 per 100,000 and subsequently fell to 7.9 per 100,000 in 1984.

e rate rose again in the late 1980s and early 1990s to another peak in 1991 of 9.8 per 100,000.

e homicide rate declined sharply from 9.3 homicides per 100,000 in 1992 to 4.8 homicides per 100,000 in 2010.

The number of homicides reached an all-time high of 24,703 homicides in 1991 then fell rapidly to 15,522 homicides by 1999

e number of homicides increased steadily from the early 1950s until the mid-1970s ( gure 2).

Between 1999 and 2008, the number of homicides remained relatively constant, ranging from a low of 15,552 homicides in 1999 to a high of 17,030 homicides in 2006. ese homicide numbers were still below those reported in the 1970s, when the number of reported homicides rst rose above 20,000 (reaching 20,710 in 1974).

2

Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

The demographic characteristics of homicide victims and o enders were di erent from the characteristics of the general population

Based on available data from 1980 to 2008--

Blacks were disproportionately represented as both homicide victims and offenders. The victimization rate for blacks (27.8 per 100,000) was 6 times higher than the rate for whites (4.5 per 100,000). The offending rate for blacks (34.4 per 100,000) was almost 8 times higher than the rate for whites (4.5 per 100,000) (table 1).

Males represented 77% of homicide victims and nearly 90% of offenders. The victimization rate for males (11.6 per 100,000) was 3 times higher than the rate for females (3.4 per 100,000). The offending rate for males (15.1 per 100,000) was almost 9 times higher than the rate for females (1.7 per 100,000).

Approximately a third (34%) of murder victims and almost half (49%) of the offenders were under age 25. For both victims and offenders, the rate per 100,000 peaked in the 18 to 24 year-old age group at 17.1 victims per 100,000 and 29.3 offenders per 100,000.

TABLE 1 Victims and o enders, by demographic group, 1980?2008

Total Age

Under 14 14-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65 or older Sex Male Female Race White Black Other*

Victims 100%

Percent of--

O enders Population

100%

100%

Rate per 100,000

Victims O enders

7.4

8.3

4.8% 5.2 24.4 28.7 22.8 8.9 5.1

0.5%

20.0%

1.8

0.2

10.6

5.8

6.6

15.0

37.5

10.6

17.1

29.3

28.0

15.6

13.7

14.9

17.1

21.1

8.0

6.7

4.9

14.7

4.5

2.7

1.6

12.3

3.1

1.1

76.8% 23.2

89.5%

48.9% 11.6

15.1

10.5

51.1

3.4

1.7

50.3% 47.4 2.3

45.3%

82.9%

4.5

4.5

52.5

12.6

27.8

34.4

2.2

4.4

3.8

4.1

*Other race includes American Indians, Native Alaskans, Asians, Native Hawaiians, and other Pacific Islanders.

NOVEMBER 2011

3

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

FIGURE 3 Homicide victimization rates, by age, 1980?2008

Rate per 100,000 25

20

Under 14 14?17

18?24 25?34 35?49 50 or older

15

10

5

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

FIGURE 4 Homicide o ending rates, by age, 1980?2008

Rate per 100,000 50

40

30

Under 14 14?17 18?24 25?34 35?49

50 or older

20

10

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

Trends by age

Young adults had the highest homicide victimization and o ending rates

Homicide victimization rates for teens and young adults increased rapidly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, peaking in 1993 at 12 homicides per 100,000 for teens and 24.8 homicides per 100,000 for young adults.

The homicide victimization rate for children under age 14 was the lowest of all age groups, peaking in 1993 at a high of 2.2 homicides per 100,000. By 2004, this rate had declined to the lowest level recorded--1.4 homicides per 100,000--and remained stable through 2008 at 1.5 homicides per 100,000 ( gure 3).

The homicide victimization rate for teens (14 to 17 years old) increased almost 150% from 4.9 homicides per 100,000 in 1985 to 12.0 homicides per 100,000 in 1993. Since 1993, the victimization rate for teens has declined to 5.1 homicides per 100,000.

In 2008, young adults (18 to 24 years old) experienced the highest homicide victimization rate (13.4 homicides per 100,000).

In the early 1980s, 25 to 34 year-olds had the highest homicide victimization rate--18.6 homicides per 100,000. By 2008, this rate had fallen to 10.7 homicides per 100,000, a 42% reduction.

Homicide victimization rates for adults ages 35 to 49 and 50 or older have remained stable since 1999 at between 5.7 and 5.9 homicides per 100,000 for adults ages 35 to 49 and between 2.5 and 2.7 homicides per 100,000 for adults ages 50 or older.

Homicide o ending rates followed a pattern similar to victimization rates

The offending rates for teens (14 to 17 years old) and young adults (18 to 24 years old) increased dramatically in the late 1980s while the rates for older age groups declined ( gure 4).

From 1980 to 2008, young adults (18 to 24 years old) have consistently had the highest offending rate. This rate nearly doubled from 1985 to 1993, going from 22.1 offenders per 100,000 young adults to 43.1 offenders per 100,000.

Since 1993, the offending rate for 18 to 24 year-olds has declined to 24.6 offenders per 100,000 in 2008.

The offending rate for teens (14 to 17 years old) increased substantially from 10.4 offenders per 100,000 in 1985 to 30.7 offenders per 100,000 by 1993. After 1993, the rate fell so much that by 2000, the offending rate for teens was near its 1985 level, at 9.5 offenders per 100,000.

The offending rates for adults ages 35 to 49 and 50 or older have remained relatively stable since 2000, at between 4.8 and 5.1 offenders per 100,000 for adults age 35 to 49 and between 1.3 and 1.5 offenders per 100,000 for adults age 50 or older.

4

Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

After many years of decline, the average age of both victims and o enders has leveled o

The average age of-- victims fell from 34.1 years in 1980 to 31.3 years in 1994, then

increased to 32.7 years by 2008 ( gure 5) offenders fell from 29.6 years in 1980 to 26.4 years in 1994, then

increased to 28.8 years in 2008 both offenders and victims increased slightly in recent years, yet

remained lower than they were prior to the late 1980s.

The age distribution of homicide victims and o enders di ered by type of homicide

From 1980 to 2008-- A quarter of the victims (24%) of gang-related homicides were

under age 18. Juveniles were also a fifth (19%) of persons killed by family members, and they represented more than a quarter (28%) of persons killed by arson or by poison (table 2). Victims age 50 or older were 39% of workplace homicide victims and 34% of victims of homicide by poison.

Younger victims were more likely than older victims to know the o ender ( gure 6)

FIGURE 5 Average age of homicide victims and o enders, 1980?2008 Mean age 40

Victims 30

O enders 20

10

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

FIGURE 6 Percent of homicides in which o ender was known to victim, by age of victim, 1980?2008 Percent 100

80

60

40

20

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 96+ Age of victim

TABLE 2 Homicide type, by age, 1980?2008

Victims

O enders

Total Under 18 18?34 35?49 50 or older Total Under 18 18?34 35?49 50 or older

All homicides

100%

10.0%

53.2% 22.8% 14.0%

100% 11.0% 65.5% 17.1%

6.5%

Victim/o ender relationship

Intimate

100%

1.3% 48.5% 33.6% 16.6%

100%

1.0% 47.0% 34.7% 17.2%

Family

100%

19.3

32.8

26.0

21.9

100%

6.1

50.5

27.5

15.9

Infants

100%

100

100%

7.4

81.2

10.2

1.1

Elders

100%

100

100%

9.4

47.8

20.7

22.1

Circumstances

Felony murder

100%

7.5% 48.2% 22.2% 22.1%

100% 14.6% 72.7% 10.7%

2.0%

Sex related

100%

18.4

45.3

18.2

18.1

100%

9.7

73.1

15.2

1.9

Drug related

100%

5.4

70.9

20.2

3.6

100% 10.8

76.4

11.5

1.3

Gang related

100%

23.7

68.8

6.2

1.3

100% 28.0

70.2

1.6

0.2

Argument

100%

5.7

56.2

26.3

11.8

100%

7.0

60.7

23.0

9.2

Workplace

100%

0.5

26.7

33.5

39.3

100%

2.8

53.6

28.0

15.6

Weapon

Gun homicide

100%

8.1% 59.7% 22.0% 10.3%

100% 12.2% 65.9% 15.1%

6.9%

Arson

100%

27.9

26.4

20.4

25.2

100% 10.6

57.0

24.9

7.5

Poison

100%

28.6

20.8

16.8

33.8

100%

3.5

48.8

29.8

17.8

Multiple victims or o enders

Multiple victims

100%

17.9%

47.0% 19.3% 15.8%

100%

9.5% 66.3% 18.3%

5.9%

Multiple offenders 100%

10.4

58.4

19.2

12.0

100% 17.9

73.1

7.7

1.3

Note: Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. The percentages of victim/offender relationships are based on the 63.1% of homicides from 1980 through 2008 for which the victim/offender relationships were known. The percentages of homicides involving multiple victims or offenders were known for 69.1% of incidents.

NOVEMBER 2011

5

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

FIGURE 7 Number of homicides of children under age 5, by race of victim, 1980?2008

Number 500

400

White

300

200

Black

100 Other*

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

*Other race includes American Indians, Alaska Natives, Asians, Hawaiians, and other Pacific Islanders.

FIGURE 8 Homicide victimization rates for children under age 5, by race of victim, 1980?2008

Rate per 100,000 20

15

White

Black Other*

10

5

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

*Other race includes American Indians, Alaska Natives, Asians, Hawaiians, and other Pacific Islanders.

FIGURE 9

Homicides of children under age 5, by age of

victim, 1980?2008

Rate per 100,000 10

Under 1 1 yr old

2 yrs old

8

3 yrs old

4 yrs old

6

4

2

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

CHILDREN UNDER AGE 5

The homicide rate for children under age 5 has remained stable or declined for all racial groups

The number of homicides of children under age 5 declined between 1993 and 2006, but increased in 2007 and 2008 ( gure 7).

Homicide rates for--

black children under age 5 declined 36% between 1993 and 2008, dropping from 11.3 homicides per 100,000 in 1993 to 7.2 homicides per 100,000 in 2008 ( gure 8).

black children under age 5 have remained substantially higher than rates for white children or children of other races.

white children under age 5 remained relatively stable between 1980 and 1990, with an average rate of 2.4 homicides per 100,000. The rate rose to 2.8 homicides per 100,000 by 1996, then dropped down to 2.1 homicides per 100,000 in 2006. Since 2006 the rate has risen slightly to 2.3 homicides per 100,000 in 2008.

In general, the younger the child, the greater the risk for being the victim of a homicide ( gure 9)

Throughout the 28-year period from 1980 to 2008, infants under 1 year of age had the highest homicide victimization rate of all children under age 5.

6

Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

A parent was the perpetrator in the majority of homicides of children under age 5 ( gure 10)

Of all children under age 5 murdered from 1980 through 2008-- 63% were killed by a parent--33% were killed by their fathers

and 30% were killed by their mothers (table 3) 23% were killed by male acquaintances 5% were killed by female acquaintances 7% were killed by other relatives 3% were killed by strangers. Of children under age 5 killed by someone other than their parent, 80% were killed by males (not shown).

TABLE 3 O ender relationship to child victim under age 5, 1980?2008

All

Friend/

Sex of o ender relationships Parent Other family acquaintance Stranger

All o enders

100%

63%

7%

28%

3%

Male

63%

33%

4%

23%

3%

Female

38

30

3

5

0

Note: Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. Percentages are based on the 63.1% of homicides from 1980 through 2008 for which the victim/offender relationships were known.

Most of the victims and o enders of homicides involving children under age 5 were male

Since 1980, the number of homicides involving male children under age 5--

killed by male offenders increased dramatically in the early 1990s before dropping in 1997 ( gure 11)

followed a similar pattern for female victims killed by male offenders, although the changes were less pronounced.

For additional information on this topic, see the BJS publication Child Victimizers: Violent O enders and eir Victims (NCJ 153258, BJS Web, March 1996).

FIGURE 10 Homicides of children under age 5, by relationship with the o ender, 1980?2008

Percent 80

60

Parent

Other family

40

Friend/acquaintance Stranger

20

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

Note: Percentages are based on the 63.1% of homicides from 1980 through 2008 for which the victim/offender relationships were known.

FIGURE 11 Number of homicides of children under age 5, by sex of victim and o ender, 1980?2008

Number 300

200

100 0 1980

Male victim/male o ender Female victim/male o ender Male victim/female o ender Female victim/female o ender

1985 1990 1995 2000

2005 2008

Note: Percentages are based on the 63.1% of homicides from 1980 through 2008 for which the victim/offender relationships were known.

NOVEMBER 2011

7

PAT TERNS & TRENDS

FIGURE 12 Number of homicides of persons age 65 or older, by sex of victim, 1980?2008

Number 1,000

800

600

400

Male

200

Female

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

FIGURE 13 Homicide victimization and o ending rates for persons age 65 or older, 1980?2008

Rate per 100,000 6

5

4

3 Victimization

2

1

0

O ending

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

FIGURE 14 Percent of homicides committed during a felony, by age of victim, 1980?2008

Percent

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Under 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

age 1

Age of victim

ELDERS AGE 65 OR OLDER

For the elderly (65 or older), both the number of homicides and the homicide victimization rate declined from 1980 to 2000 and then stabilized

About 5% of all homicide victims between 1980 and 2008 were elderly.

Between 1980 and 2008, males accounted for nearly 6 out of 10 homicide victims age 65 or older.

Since 2000 the number of homicides involving elderly males (age 65 or older) has increased slightly, while the number involving elderly females has decreased ( gure 12).

The homicide victimization and offending rates for persons age 65 or older have been relatively stable since 2001, ranging from a high of 2.1 victims and 0.8 offenders per 100,000 in 2003 to a low of 1.7 victims and 0.6 offenders in 2007.

In 2008, both victimization and offending rates for persons age 65 or older remained low at 1.9 victims and 0.7 offenders per 100,000 ( gure 13).

Older homicide victims were more likely to have been killed during a felony than younger victims ( gure 14)

Homicides committed during a felony were those that occurred in conjunction with a serious crime, usually punishable by at least one year in prison, such as rape, robbery, burglary, or arson.

Between 1980 and 2008, the percentage of homicides that occurred during a felony was higher for elderly homicide victims age 65 or older than for homicide victims of other ages.

Among murder victims ages 20 to 40, the percentage of homicides committed during a felony was relatively stable, ranging from 17.7% to 19.3% of all homicide victims in this age group.

Among murder victims age 40 or older, the proportion of homicides committed during a felony began increasing, accounting for 32.8% of homicides of 64-year-old victims and 40.3% of homicides of 76-year-old victims.

8

Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008

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