The Overall State of the Economy

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For Release: Thursday, April 3rd, 2008

6:30 PM (EDT)

AMERICANS' VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY AND THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY March 28- April 2, 2008

Americans' views about the economy ? and the way things are going in this country in general -- are now the most negative ever recorded in the history of the CBS News/New York Times Poll.

Just 14% say things in this country are on the right track; the lowest number in the twenty-five years since CBS News began asking the question.

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

Now

1/2008

Right direction

14%

19%

Wrong track

81

75

12/2007 21% 71

When asked to compare things in the U.S. now to five years ago, 78% say things are worse today (the highest since CBS news began asking the question in 1986) and only 4% say things are better. Nearly four in 10 think things will be better in the next five years, while a third expect things to get worse.

Better Worse About the same

THE UNITED STATES TODAY VS. ...

FIVE YEARS AGO

FIVE YEARS FROM NOW

4%

39%

78

34

17

19

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

Just one in five believe the economy is in good shape - the lowest number recorded since October 1992. In addition, seven in 10 say the economy is getting worse.

Good Bad

CONDITION OF THE ECONOMY

Now 2 weeks ago 1/2008 3/2007

21%

25%

38%

55%

78

76

61

44

10/1992 19% 79

There are many causes for these concerns. In this poll, Americans express their worries about the impact of a bad economy on their ability to meet future college tuitions, pay their mortgages and even (for some) paying their regular bills.

And while the Chairman of the Federal Reserve recently indicated that the U.S. economy may enter a recession during the first half of this

year, two-thirds of Americans think the country is already in one. Two-thirds thought so last month, and 53% did in January.

IS THE U.S. IN A RECESSION?

Now

2 weeks ago

1/2008

Yes

66%

66%

53%

No

27

28

41

So it is not surprising that the economy and jobs continues to be the top concern for Americans. The war in Iraq is second, followed by two other issues where people worry about cost: gas prices and health care.

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM

Economy and jobs

37%

War in Iraq

15

Gas prices

7

Health care

6

As for which economic problem facing the country is most important, gas prices top the list. 21% volunteer gas and oil prices, 14% cite housing and the home mortgage crisis and 11% say jobs (Another 4% say jobs moving overseas and outsourcing). Personal finances and war and defense spending are each volunteered by 5%.

MOST IMPORTANT ECONOMIC PROBLEM

Gas/oil prices

21%

Housing/home mortgages

14

Jobs/unemployment

11

Personal finances

5

War/defense spending

5

When it comes to jobs, nearly half of Americans say the country's best years are in the past. 43% say the best times for jobs are yet to come.

THE HOME MORTGAGE CRISIS

Most Americans are aware of the current home mortgage crisis and more than half think the federal government should provide financial help to homeowners who are having trouble repaying their mortgages. Significantly fewer, however, support this idea if it would cost taxpayers $30 billion.

The public has less sympathy for banks and mortgage companies: A majority (62%) does not think the government should provide help to those institutions.

IN THE MORTGAGE CRISIS, SHOULD GOV'T PROVIDE FINANCIAL HELP TO ...?

HOMEOWNERS

BANKS & MORTGAGE COMPANIES

Yes

53%

28%

No

41

62

Americans mostly blame regulators of the industry for the home mortgage crisis, followed by lenders. Only 14% put the blame on the borrowers themselves.

WHO DO YOU BLAME MOST FOR MORTGAGE CRISIS?

Regulators

40%

Lenders

28

Borrowers

14

It's not just other people that the public thinks about when it comes to the mortgage crisis. Many worry about themselves. Nearly three in four of those holding a mortgage have some concern about being able to pay their housing costs. A third are very concerned.

CONCERNED ABOUT HOUSE COSTS?

(Those holding a mortgage)

Very

31%

Somewhat

41

Not at all

28

AMERICANS AND THEIR PERSONAL FINANCES

Despite many worries about their mortgage responsibility and their negative assessment of the national economy, Americans are relatively satisfied with their own financial situation. Seven in 10 Americans rate their financial situation as at least somewhat good ? though this number is down six points from February. But only 9% of Americans say their financial situation is very good ? down nine points in the last few weeks.

FINANCIAL CONDITION OF YOUR HOUSEHOLD

Now

2/2008

4/2007

Good

72%

78%

83%

Bad

27

21

17

Nearly half of all Americans say they are staying even financially, while 23% say they are getting ahead, and another 28% say they are falling behind.

Most Americans say that wages are not keeping up with the cost of living in their communities. This is especially true of Americans who live in the Midwest.

ARE WAGES KEEPING UP WITH

THE COST OF LIVING IN YOUR COMMUNITY?

Total

Northeast Midwest South

West

Yes

32%

38%

24%

31%

34%

No

62

56

71

64

57

And 79% - say they have had to make cutbacks in their day-to-day spending in recent years, although only 28% admit those cutbacks have

been severe. One in five Americans have not had to make any cutbacks in their spending. A third of Americans making over $75,000 a year have not had to make cutbacks, compared to only 15% of those making less.

HAVE YOU MADE CUTBACKS IN DAY-TO-DAY SPENDING?

All

Under $75K

Over $75K

Severe cutbacks

28%

37%

10%

Not severe cutbacks

51

47

57

No cutbacks

21

15

33

Paying everyday bills is the biggest personal economic concern for most Americans, ahead of both saving for retirement and paying for health care. This changes, however, depending on one's household income. Americans making less than $75,000 a year are more concerned about their current situation and paying their bills, but those making more are more concerned about the future and saving for retirement.

Everyday bills Retirement Health care

BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONCERN

All

Under $75K

29%

36%

25

20

24

25

Over $75K 15% 40 18

Although it may come in third when ranked against paying for everyday bills and saving for retirement, 86% still say they are at least somewhat concerned about the health care costs their family might face in the coming years ? including 59% who say they are very concerned. Large majorities are also concerned about saving for retirement and paying their current health care and housing costs. Just over half are also at least somewhat concerned that someone in their household will lose their job in the next twelve months.

HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT ...?

Very

Somewhat

Future health care costs

59%

27

Saving for retirement

43%

39

Current health care costs

42%

29

Housing costs

31%

38

Losing a job in the household 28%

26

Not at all 14 17 28 30 45

However, it is paying for college tuition that seems to preoccupy most Americans with children under the age of 18. Nine out of 10 parents are concerned about paying for college; including seven in 10 who say they are very concerned. More worry about that than worry about any other specific economic concern.

HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT ...?

(Among parents with children under 18)

Very

Somewhat Not at all

Paying for college tuition

70%

24

6

Future health care costs

62%

24

13

Saving for retirement

56%

38

7

Current health care costs

47%

26

27

Losing a job in the household 35%

29

35

Housing costs

33%

43

24

Looking beyond those future college expenditures, parents are cautiously optimistic about their children's financial future. Nearly half of all Americans with children think their children's standard of living will be better than theirs ? the same who thought so as a year ago. But 28% think their standard of living will decline, and 24% think it will be about the same as their own.

YOUR CHILDREN'S STANDARD OF LIVING WILL BE...

(Among all parents)

Now

7/2006

3/2005(NYT)

Better than yours

46%

48%

56%

Worse than yours

28

27

22

Same as yours

24

23

18

And regardless of their personal financial struggles, 62% of Americans think their own standard of living is better than that of their parents when they were the same age ? a number which hasn't changed much over the past two years.

STANDARD OF LIVING NOW VS. PARENTS

Now

7/2006

3/2005(NYT)

Better now

62%

63%

66%

Worse now

17

16

14

Same

19

21

20

THE STOCK MARKET

The recent fluctuations in the stock market haven't made Americans any more comfortable with the market. Only one in five Americans think that investment in the stock market is a generally safe investment. 73% think it is risky, including 65% of investors.

IS INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET GENERALLY...

All

Investors

Safe

22%

33%

Risky

73

65

THE WAR IN IRAQ AND THE ECONOMY

The war in Iraq ranks second behind the economy as the country's most pressing problem and most Americans think the cost of the war has

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